Bills draft strategy

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

48 minutes ago, Pete said:

whats..............with.....................all..................the.... ......................................... ......?

...they're copying MY style.......it's Morse Code....can't you translate??........

[Augie]

I’ll never get that time back.........

[LSHMEAB]

58 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

 

You read my mind. Why just the first two? Also, which teams are like "We shouldnt pick any pro bowl guys in the first two rounds"?

Maybe a hard luck GM who's on the hot seat going with the Costanza opposite approach. 

[transient]

6 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

 Not exactly.   Highest ceiling player available. .......... Consider the choice between a player who has a 97% chance of being a "100" at his position AND a guy who has an 80% chance of being a "130" at his position.  (let's say that there are only 2-4 "130's at that position in the entire league).......... I think they are willing to go the second way and use okay lower draft picks to move up into the first round.   Also, if "those guys" (the freak guys) are not there,  then they go BPA .     (few teams are drafting for need these days)

 

 

But... our amps go to “11”. 

[Comebackkid]

So... We're going to do exactly what we did last year....eye opening ??

[Tipster19]

It’s no secret that McBeane, I say McBeane because I’m not sure who is the one that initiated having some very “seasoned” veterans on the roster aka Lorenzo, formerly Kyle, McCoy, Gore etc etc which raises a question to me that maybe someone here will know. Is there any elder draft prospects in this draft? Guys who might have been redshirted and/or started college at a later age than normal? Going defense maybe there is a prospect that slides a bit due to age.

Oops, I forgot to reference guys like QB Brandon Weeden. The guy has been in the league for 7 years and is 35 years old.

[Peace Frog]

I've had my epiphany for this draft.  I want the 1st and 2nd round picks to be Ed Oliver and Jerry Tillery.  I miss the days of having Ted Washington and Pat Williams anchoring our #1 D back in 1999.  These two rookie DTs would make our defense downright scary.

[BillsFan1988]

I believe the best strategy this yr is to take TJ Hockenson at # 9 or trade bk a few spots and get him .

 

Secondly trade up into late first hopefully using some of the firepower we got from moving bk a few spots and draft either.

 

Christian Wilkins 

Jerry Tillery

Jeffrey Simmons

 

With this strategy we hit on 2 top needs with players that can be impact game changers.

 

A team I'm hoping we can trade with is the Packers hopefully we swap firsts 9 & 12 and get a 3 & 5 in return. Then we can use our 2nd, 3rd, 4th & 5th to move bk into late first say pks 25-30 to get that DT we need.  If we can pull this off we still have 3rd from Pack trade a 4th , 2 5s, 6th & 2 7ths to fill other needs. 

Edited April 3, 2019 by BillsFan1988

[JM57]

39 minutes ago, Peace Frog said:

I've had my epiphany for this draft.  I want the 1st and 2nd round picks to be Ed Oliver and Jerry Tillery.  I miss the days of having Ted Washington and Pat Williams anchoring our #1 D back in 1999.  These two rookie DTs would make our defense downright scary.

I like the idea but which one is the space eater? McDermott has had Star in that role on both teams but generally speaking if it weren't him, one DT is tasked with controlling two gaps, occupying blockers and generally making a mess of the interior line where the other one (Kawaan Short in Carolina) is more of a one gap slasher/penetrator. 

 

I am not super high on Star in general but I get his role and that it won't necessarily show on the stat sheet. Oliver and Tillery each would get excellent scheme fits in the one gap attacking DT role in this scheme, just not next to each other. 

[maryland-bills-fan]

12 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

I'd take it a step further and say go for pro bowl guys with all 10 picks! Why stop at 2?

       You can do that.  It would mean that for every draft pick, you looked for the "highest ceiling" player and ignore where the "floor" was on that player.  You would have a lot of misses but might get one good player in the 2nd to 7th round.  You would then have to fill in the roster with hold-overs and free agents.  The danger is that you might have a team sprinkled with great players, that the opponents could work around and attack the weaker players.

      I think that beyond the first and maybe high second round, you go for OK/good players to build depth and improve the average quality of your starters.

 

Sorry for the use of ..... to indicate the gaps where a paragraph end and start should be. I often write on a system where the "enter key" is not a "line feed", that can be followed by a "tab" to give the indentation of a new paragraph,  but is a "publish" key.   Here, I thought I was doing good to not hit  top side of the screen thinking it was the carriage return lever for each new line.

 

 

     

Edited April 3, 2019 by maryland-bills-fan

[wppete]

????????

 

[SoCal Deek]

For years the Bills were floundering in the draft and free agency looking for, or making excuses, for a starting QB. If last year’s strategy works out they’ll have found both the QB and MLB in a single draft. Now...the focus turns to getting a solid and stable core cast of players around them that will grow up and peak in 2020 and 2021 when both Allen and Edmunds are coming into their prime. It’s all about timing. Build both lines and toss in a WR and RB or two.

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

My gut is telling me that they will take a LT at pick 9 or trade down a few spots and grab one. If Allen can stay healthy he can maximize his development in year 2 because in year 3 I am going to be expecting playoffs and a super bowl push. 

[Romie]

This post was brought to you by marijuana.

[maryland-bills-fan]

1 hour ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

My gut is telling me that they will take a LT at pick 9 or trade down a few spots and grab one. If Allen can stay healthy he can maximize his development in year 2 because in year 3 I am going to be expecting playoffs and a super bowl push. 

 That could very well happen.  I think if there isn't someone that they think is very special- a potential generational type talent-  then the idea of selling lower picks to get that guy is not in play this year.   The couple highest DL will be gone before it is our turn and it would cost way too much to move up. (look at the draft value chart).  It would be nice if we could trade down a bit and then still get almost the same guy as we could at #9 as well as additional lower pick. I think there is not a lot of difference between the top 5 offensive tackles or the 5->10 top defensive linemen.  Maybe a trade down from #9 and a trade up from #40 could give us two good players in the 20's.

2 hours ago, wppete said:

????????

 

Strategy last year was to use first two picks for players with very high ceiling but also a low-to-medium floor.  After that they went for best players with good ceiling and good floor.

 

 

 

  19 hours ago, TigerJ said:

Essentially it sounds as if the OP is saying you might have a choice between a player who had a real productive college career and a player that for some reason didn't seem to be as productive as one would like, but has elite athleticism and looks as if he might be a generational type player, you role the dice on the potential generational player in the first or second round.  An example might be Rashan Gary, who at 6'4" and 277 lbs ran a ridiculous 4.58 40.  He's strong and has long arms. He is just an incredible athlete.  However, he was not super productive in college.  Some have speculated that his underperformance might have something to do with the way he was used.  On the flip side Christian Wilkins is considered a pretty safe pick.  He's an excellent athlete.  He's technically sound and he's had a long productive college career.  The OP is saying, you gamble on Gary's upside rather than taking the safer pick.  After the first couple rounds, maybe then college production begins to be more of a factor.  At least that's how I take it.

[Peace Frog]

8 hours ago, JM57 said:

I like the idea but which one is the space eater? McDermott has had Star in that role on both teams but generally speaking if it weren't him, one DT is tasked with controlling two gaps, occupying blockers and generally making a mess of the interior line where the other one (Kawaan Short in Carolina) is more of a one gap slasher/penetrator. 

 

I am not super high on Star in general but I get his role and that it won't necessarily show on the stat sheet. Oliver and Tillery each would get excellent scheme fits in the one gap attacking DT role in this scheme, just not next to each other. 

Several options here.  Oliver was historically double and triple teamed in college (I know, the pros are different) so in essence, he would be used to being a 'space eater'.  The same goes for Tillery; he was double blocked a lot.  They could take turns lining up alongside Star or they could spell him and be together.  The point is, the only way (short of Brady's retirement or season ending injury) the Bills will probably win the division is by at least splitting games with the Paytoilets.  To do that, you have to beat Brady (think Yoda telling Luke Skywalker "Confront Vader, you must.").  To do THAT, you have to pressure him up the middle.  You can contain with your edge defenders, but their most effective role is keep Brady either in the pocket or stepping up in it.  We must have the immediate pressure from up the gut to slow Brady down.  A couple of stud DTs would help accomplish that.

[maryland-bills-fan]

On 4/3/2019 at 8:47 AM, Romie said:

This post was brought to you by marijuana.

Jim Beam and coke. a COLA....... Gernonamo !!!

 

 

Edited April 11, 2019 by maryland-bills-fan

[Tipster19]

Just a thought to add to your post. There’s 2 players out there I’m curious where they end up, I could see either or both in Buffalo. The Bills have at different times shown interest in both of them. The first is Jaylon Ferguson, he looks quite impressive and the Bills were one of many teams interested in him. I would think that a 4th rd pick would be a steal for this guy.

 

 

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/04/08/jaylon-ferguson-visiting-bills-with-giants-and-others-to-follow/

 

The 2nd player is WR Jalen Robinette. He just seems to fit so much of what McBeane wants in a player. A 6th, possibly a 7th rd pick would make him one of those low risk, high ceiling type player.

 

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/jalen-robinette/

 

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/04/09/jalen-robinette-looking-to-begin-football-career-after-military-commitment/

 

 

[ndirish1978]

10 minutes ago, Tipster19 said:

Just a thought to add to your post. There’s 2 players out there I’m curious where they end up, I could see either or both in Buffalo. The Bills have at different times shown interest in both of them. The first is Jaylon Ferguson, he looks quite impressive and the Bills were one of many teams interested in him. I would think that a 4th rd pick would be a steal for this guy.

 

 

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/04/08/jaylon-ferguson-visiting-bills-with-giants-and-others-to-follow/

 

The 2nd player is WR Jalen Robinette. He just seems to fit so much of what McBeane wants in a player. A 6th, possibly a 7th rd pick would make him one of those low risk, high ceiling type player.

 

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/jalen-robinette/

 

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/04/09/jalen-robinette-looking-to-begin-football-career-after-military-commitment/

 

 

 

Ferguson will be gone by rd 3. 

[mrags]

2 minutes ago, ndirish1978 said:

 

Ferguson will be gone by rd 3. 

This

 

I LOVE.... Ferguson. He’ll be gone by the middle of the 3rd. If we get him, our 3rd round pick is the play. 

[transient]

On 4/2/2019 at 5:51 PM, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

...they're copying MY style.......it's Morse Code....can't you translate??........

 

. . . _ _ _ . . .     . . . _ _ _ . . .     . . . _ _ _ . . .

 

[NoSaint]

On 4/2/2019 at 12:45 PM, LABILLBACKER said:

Highest ceiling player = BPA

No need to relabel it....

 

Not on every board.each team has their own risk/reward equations 

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, Tipster19 said:

Just a thought to add to your post. There’s 2 players out there I’m curious where they end up, I could see either or both in Buffalo. The Bills have at different times shown interest in both of them. The first is Jaylon Ferguson, he looks quite impressive and the Bills were one of many teams interested in him. I would think that a 4th rd pick would be a steal for this guy.

 

 

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/04/08/jaylon-ferguson-visiting-bills-with-giants-and-others-to-follow/

 

The 2nd player is WR Jalen Robinette. He just seems to fit so much of what McBeane wants in a player. A 6th, possibly a 7th rd pick would make him one of those low risk, high ceiling type player.

 

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/jalen-robinette/

 

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/04/09/jalen-robinette-looking-to-begin-football-career-after-military-commitment/

 

 

 

Jaylon won't make it past our SECOND round pick, let alone out third. I have a late first on him. I think the kid is really, really good and he shows up on film in his games against top level opponents too. This isn't just a guy who can feast on bad opposition.

[Pete]

8 hours ago, Tipster19 said:

Just a thought to add to your post. There’s 2 players out there I’m curious where they end up, I could see either or both in Buffalo. The Bills have at different times shown interest in both of them. The first is Jaylon Ferguson, he looks quite impressive and the Bills were one of many teams interested in him. I would think that a 4th rd pick would be a steal for this guy.

 

 

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/04/08/jaylon-ferguson-visiting-bills-with-giants-and-others-to-follow/

 

The 2nd player is WR Jalen Robinette. He just seems to fit so much of what McBeane wants in a player. A 6th, possibly a 7th rd pick would make him one of those low risk, high ceiling type player.

 

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/jalen-robinette/

 

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/04/09/jalen-robinette-looking-to-begin-football-career-after-military-commitment/

 

 

I like Jaylon too but there is no way he lasts until 4th round.  I have been posting my ideal realistic draft scenerio is we draft Oliver, and trade up for Ferguson in late 1st.

[PolishDave]

On 4/2/2019 at 1:43 PM, maryland-bills-fan said:

 97% chance of being a "100" at his position AND a guy who has an 80% chance of being a "130" 

 

 

My Amp goes to 11

[ndirish1978]

That's what we've been doing wrong guys, we didn't try to draft Pro Bowlers, likely because it is too expensive to pay them later. Wish I'd thought of this!

[hjnick]

With this a really deep draft, the Bills strategy should be to trade back twice and pick up additional 2nd round / 3rd round picks.

 

First trade with Wash back to 15.  Get their 1st and 2nd round picks (at least) to do this.

Then trade with either Baltimore or Oakland.  Again, optimally, we want to trade with Oakland and get their second round pick.

 

So we would then have the 24 or 27th pick, 35, 40, 46th pick.  4 picks in the top 46.

 

Then you can still get a DT, EDGE, OL, TE (or WR) with those 4 picks. 

[maryland-bills-fan]

1 hour ago, ndirish1978 said:

That's what we've been doing wrong guys, we didn't try to draft Pro Bowlers, likely because it is too expensive to pay them later. Wish I'd thought of this!

Glad to see you have figured out how to save money.

[ndirish1978]

Draft strategy this draft should be to accumulate as many picks in the first 3 rds as possible, not because we should always do this, but because I see a lot of parity between the guys who will be going in the late 1st and the guys going in the 3rd talent-wise.

[billsfan89]

On 4/2/2019 at 12:55 PM, Rob's House said:

You need talent, but most teams have that. What often separates the top teams from the pack is having guys whose talents fit the team's strategy & who play well together.

 

Based on their approach thus far I think they're looking for the most talented players that fit their vision & will mesh well with the rest of the team, wrt both skill set & personality.

 

For example, I doubt they'd draft Greedy Williams even if he were the most talented option because a press/man CB isn't a good fit on this D.

 

Similarly, I doubt they'd burn a high pick on someone they thought might lack motivation or cause problems in the locker room.

 

In team sports the whole needs to be greater than the sum of its parts. In football not only do you have to have great talent but you have to have coaching that is putting talent in the proper scheme.  You can have great 4-3 talent but if you are running a 3-4 scheme then the results won't be good. 

 

I think the Bills draft strategy will be to take whatever the best defensive talent falls to them at pick 9 or trade down if a good opportunity for a trade down is available that give them good value. Then they will likely try and fill offensive needs in rounds 2 and 3 while building depth in the mid rounds. 

[maryland-bills-fan]

 I think that sometimes, because of astrology or group-think among the "experts" that we depend upon,  there is a glut of projected superstars at a position.  This year it is defensive line and, to a lesser extend, offensive tackle.  If it IS true this year at DL, then we can draft at #9 and maybe get a "superstar" or move down to say, #15, and still get a D-lineman who would be a top 10 pick in most other years.

 

We could take advantage of the surplus D-line & OT by taking one or by getting some other position, where a good player was pushed down lower in the draft.  Somehow I wonder if this year's tea leaves reading is real or just the writers doing clickbait.

 

[maryland-bills-fan]

6 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

 

In team sports the whole needs to be greater than the sum of its parts. In football not only do you have to have great talent but you have to have coaching that is putting talent in the proper scheme.  You can have great 4-3 talent but if you are running a 3-4 scheme then the results won't be good. 

 

I think the Bills draft strategy will be to take whatever the best defensive talent falls to them at pick 9 or trade down if a good opportunity for a trade down is available that give them good value. Then they will likely try and fill offensive needs in rounds 2 and 3 while building depth in the mid rounds. 

 Yes, it is important not to have a weak link for the other team to exploit.  An "10" all-pro CB on one side and a weak "6" slow rookie at the other CB is NOT as good as  both being "8".   Hopefully we have used FA veterans to avoid that and are drafting the entire draft on eventual "high ceilings" and disregarding where the "floor" is.  We have the FA veterans to plug the hole if the draft pick stays at a "low floor" performance.

[Simon Says]

Nothing new  to see here.... Bills now have more than 70 guys on the roster. 10 draft picks pending,and free agent rumors still surfacing...

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

On ‎4‎/‎2‎/‎2019 at 3:19 PM, GunnerBill said:

 

They allow pro-bowl guys to enter the draft? 

 

 

...Pete Webber.......?...............

[Pete]

http://seahawksdraftblog.com/a-seahawks-bills-trade-proposal-involving-frank-clark

it is interesting to hear some Seahawk message board suggestions for Clark-Bills trade.  We aren't too far apart with cost

[maryland-bills-fan]

2 hours ago, Pete said:

http://seahawksdraftblog.com/a-seahawks-bills-trade-proposal-involving-frank-clark

it is interesting to hear some Seahawk message board suggestions for Clark-Bills trade.  We aren't too far apart with cost

From what they article says  it looks like they want  more than he is worth.  Pass