If the Bills don't draft a pass rusher...........

[Buffalo_Stampede]

7 hours ago, Virgil said:

Did we lose Jerry Hughes, Lorax, and Lawson and I missed it?

Next year is contract years for all of them. Plus, we aren't very good rushing the passer. So pass rusher is a need. Could come from the interior as well though. 

Edited March 26, 2019 by TheTruthHurts

[DCbillsfan]

7 hours ago, R Y G A R said:

I remember watching games last year thinking that pass rush should be a top priority. Oliver at 9, followed up by EDGE with 2nd pick would be ok with me.

The Bills were one of worst teams in red zone defense.  They gave up a very high touchdown %.  Most of it had to do with no or very little pass rush.

[Cripple Creek]

9 hours ago, njbuff said:

Do you think they are waiting out Ansah?

 

Or do you think they will trade for Frank Clark or Clowney?

 

Or will they just go with what they have, if they don't draft a pass rusher?

Draft White, move Edmunds outside.

[Shaw66]

BPA, people.  BPA.  How many times do you need Beane to tell you?  Draft for BPA, fill holes in free agency.  

 

If McBeane felt they had a serious need for a pass rusher, they would have been more active in early free agency.  They weren't active.  That tells you they're willing to go into the season with what they have plus whatever free agency scraps may be out there.  

 

Beane likes having picks, so I dont see him trading for Clowney.  If Beane thought Ansah was a fit, Ansah would be signed by now.  Beane's style is to decide whether he wants a guy.  If he does, he signs him and moves on.  If he doesn't, he moves on.  He doesn't seem to get into extended on and off discussions for players. 

[GunnerBill]

9 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

1.  I think Ansah is still a possibility, but ONLY if its before the draft.  Once the draft starts, Ansah wont be a Bill if he wasn't already.

 

2.  I seriously doubt they trade for Clowney.  I do think Frank Clark is a possibility though, just reports seem to suggest we aren't interested, so seems like a low possibility.  

 

3.  I think if we stay at 9 we will certainly pick an EDGE rusher over say one of the DTs.  Although I also still wouldn't rule out a weapon for Josh.  

 

4.  I think plan A is to trade down.  

 

My slightly different opinion is on point 3. I think it will be a pass rushing DL. That likely means an edge guy but I think Ed Oliver comes into that equation if he is there and potentially even Rashan Gary if the Bills see him as a fit as a 3 technique. To me Oliver is a guy who can consistently be in that 7-12 sacks a year range from an interior defensive line spot. That is edge level pass rush production and to me if he is there at #9 there is no question he is the best player available and the Bills would select him.

[GunnerBill]

8 hours ago, Virgil said:

Did we lose Jerry Hughes, Lorax, and Lawson and I missed it?

 

Hughes and Alexander will be a combined age of 67 when the season begins. The wall could come at any moment. Which would leave you with Shaq - who had a good season last year but still as a pass rusher has 10 sacks and 20 QB hits in three seasons.

[Virgil]

15 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Hughes and Alexander will be a combined age of 67 when the season begins. The wall could come at any moment. Which would leave you with Shaq - who had a good season last year but still as a pass rusher has 10 sacks and 20 QB hits in three seasons.

 

First off, Lorax is immortal and I’ll thank all of you to remember that. 

 

Hughes I see getting extended, and I think they are currently working on that. 

 

Shaq, we will see how this year goes. 

 

Either way, we have pass rushers this year and wouldn’t be surprised if it wasn’t as prioritized over other positions for the draft.  They can get one next year if needed.  That’s one of the few positions I feel can be found any year if needed and impactful as a rookie. I don’t see a guy that will be there at 9 who will be BPA over other spots that also fit the bill.  Many will say Oliver, which is fine.  I’m just overall against a guy who might maybe play 40% of the snaps because of how McD rotates lineman. 

 

But hey, I’m wrong a lot 

[Bob in STL]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

BPA, people.  BPA.  How many times do you need Beane to tell you?  Draft for BPA, fill holes in free agency.  

 

If McBeane felt they had a serious need for a pass rusher, they would have been more active in early free agency.  They weren't active.  That tells you they're willing to go into the season with what they have plus whatever free agency scraps may be out there.  

 

Beane likes having picks, so I dont see him trading for Clowney.  If Beane thought Ansah was a fit, Ansah would be signed by now.  Beane's style is to decide whether he wants a guy.  If he does, he signs him and moves on.  If he doesn't, he moves on.  He doesn't seem to get into extended on and off discussions for players. 

 

True, and conventional thinking is that DL is a position that gets premium draft slots as opposed to TE, RB, OG/C.  Of course there are exceptions. 

 

I think they will go BPA but expect it will be a DL/LB or maybe even OT. 

[JESSEFEFFER]

59 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

BPA, people.  BPA.  How many times do you need Beane to tell you?  Draft for BPA, fill holes in free agency.  

 

If McBeane felt they had a serious need for a pass rusher, they would have been more active in early free agency.  They weren't active.  That tells you they're willing to go into the season with what they have plus whatever free agency scraps may be out there.  

 

Beane likes having picks, so I dont see him trading for Clowney.  If Beane thought Ansah was a fit, Ansah would be signed by now.  Beane's style is to decide whether he wants a guy.  If he does, he signs him and moves on.  If he doesn't, he moves on.  He doesn't seem to get into extended on and off discussions for players. 

May be true but if they are convinced they will have an option to take  Burns, Sweat, Oliver or some other DL/Edge player that drops to 9 then it makes sense not to prioritize this need in FA.  The numbers suggest that they will get their choice of a few and every QB pushed up into the top of the draft will give them even more from which to choose. 

[Shaw66]

6 minutes ago, Bob in STL said:

 

True, and conventional thinking is that DL is a position that gets premium draft slots as opposed to TE, RB, OG/C.  Of course there are exceptions. 

 

I think they will go BPA but expect it will be a DL/LB or maybe even OT. 

Not necessation in the first round. Listen to the Beane interview.  He said, as he always does, that they will go BPA without regard to position.  He was pretty clear that there is depth in the draft at DL, which means you can wait to get qood quality at DL.  He also essentially said the DL depth in the draft meant they didn't have to be aggressive in free agency.  So it's clear they are looking for DL help in the draft.

 

He said what he had made clear before.  He is a pure BPA guy in the early rounds, and he moves toward need in the later rounds. 

[Shaw66]

4 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

May be true but if they are convinced they will have an option to take  Burns, Sweat, Oliver or some other DL/Edge player that drops to 9 then it makes sense not to prioritize this need in FA.  The numbers suggest that they will get their choice of a few and every QB pushed up into the top of the draft will give them even more from which to choose. 

Again, listen to his interview.  He sounds completely willing to get his DL/edge guy in the third round, if that's how it falls.  He is not going away from his BPA in the early rounds.

 

He is really clear about this.  He and McD have a plan, and their discipline is st I ck with the plan.  He said last year, in discussing how the draft went, that he tells his staff to pull him back if he gets excited about someone and starts to deviate from the plan.  They are really rigorous about it.  

 

I'm not saying they won't go DL at 9.  Not saying they won't trade up and go DL with a higher pick.  What I'm saying is that if they do go DL in round 1, it will because the guy they take is the highest rated on theit board, not because they have a need.  

[JESSEFEFFER]

23 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Again, listen to his interview.  He sounds completely willing to get his DL/edge guy in the third round, if that's how it falls.  He is not going away from his BPA in the early rounds.

 

He is really clear about this.  He and McD have a plan, and their discipline is st I ck with the plan.  He said last year, in discussing how the draft went, that he tells his staff to pull him back if he gets excited about someone and starts to deviate from the plan.  They are really rigorous about it.  

 

I'm not saying they won't go DL at 9.  Not saying they won't trade up and go DL with a higher pick.  What I'm saying is that if they do go DL in round 1, it will because the guy they take is the highest rated on theit board, not because they have a need.  

And I am suggesting that DL/Edge is the one position option where the number of elite players available, the #9 pick and the BPA mantra all align.

[Ramza86]

Based on what they did this FA. Its seems pretty clear that a pass rusher is high on their board.

[ProcessAccepted]

10 hours ago, hemma said:

I think Ansah’s shoulder is still healing and they will re-evaluate next month, before the draft.

There has to be some truth to this since he still hasn't landed anywhere.

[Shaw66]

10 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

And I am suggesting that DL/Edge is the one position option where the number of elite players available, the #9 pick and the BPA mantra all align.

Agreed.  People just need to understand that if they go DL at 9 it's because they did align.   If the BPA is an OT, some people will be surprised, but Beane's view will be that he will still find DL help later.  

Edited March 26, 2019 by Shaw66

[The Bills Blog]

11 hours ago, Gugny said:

Bills will draft the best pass rusher in the draft.  Just watch.

I actually agree with this.

[billsredneck1]

2 hours ago, DCbillsfan said:

The Bills were one of worst teams in red zone defense.  They gave up a very high touchdown %.  Most of it had to do with no or very little pass rush.

most of it had much to do with that old time blockheaded insistence on thinking you'll get plenty of pressure with the front 4 and not stunting or blitzing.

ie.  look at what the pats did to rivers. they sent someone(s) every single snap.

 

every time we sent bush or neal we got a sack.  a lot of this is on mcfrazier. we can draft the top 5 guys but a stubborn conservative defense will nullify talent.

even kyle made mention of that.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

? phew, OP title had me thinking it was a ‘I’m so done with this team thread 

[Shaw66]

4 minutes ago, billsredneck1 said:

most of it had much to do with that old time blockheaded insistence on thinking you'll get plenty of pressure with the front 4 and not stunting or blitzing.

ie.  look at what the pats did to rivers. they sent someone(s) every single snap.

 

every time we sent bush or neal we got a sack.  a lot of this is on mcfrazier. we can draft the top 5 guys but a stubborn conservative defense will nullify talent.

even kyle made mention of that.

This is an interesting point.  I don't think it's all on Frazier.  I think McD likes to come with just four.  I tend to agree with you.  We will see if the philosophy changes.  I have to think that with Edmunds speed they'd be looking for opportunities to get him free runs at the qb, let alone coming from other positions, as well. 

[BuffAlone]

51 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Again, listen to his interview.  He sounds completely willing to get his DL/edge guy in the third round, if that's how it falls.  He is not going away from his BPA in the early rounds.

 

He is really clear about this.  He and McD have a plan, and their discipline is st I ck with the plan.  He said last year, in discussing how the draft went, that he tells his staff to pull him back if he gets excited about someone and starts to deviate from the plan.  They are really rigorous about it.  

 

I'm not saying they won't go DL at 9.  Not saying they won't trade up and go DL with a higher pick.  What I'm saying is that if they do go DL in round 1, it will because the guy they take is the highest rated on theit board, not because they have a need.  

He's also said that obviously if a QB is rated above a DL, guess who we are taking? The BPA thing is predicated on their board, not ours or the media. I think its important to keep that in mind. So lets say they have Haskins ranked ahead of Oliver and they are both there at 9. That will be a position of need being taken instead of BPA. And I think they set their board up with those particulars factored in, and BPA in that instance is completely removed from the board because its not a need. I mean, if we had Aaron Donald, and say Geno Atkins already on the team, we would not be drafting a DT round one. It would be a disservice to the overall team IMO. So, we should take the BPA sermon he preaches with the notion that BPA DOES in fact meet need when they set up their board. Idk, just my take on it

[BmarvB]

I'm expecting them to draft a DT who is tough on the run and can pressure the QB up the middle

[Jay_Fixit]

11 hours ago, Virgil said:

Did we lose Jerry Hughes, Lorax, and Lawson and I missed it?

17.5 sacks between those 3 players. And one is as old as time.

 

Hence why we’re talking pass rushers.

[Dr. Who]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

My slightly different opinion is on point 3. I think it will be a pass rushing DL. That likely means an edge guy but I think Ed Oliver comes into that equation if he is there and potentially even Rashan Gary if the Bills see him as a fit as a 3 technique. To me Oliver is a guy who can consistently be in that 7-12 sacks a year range from an interior defensive line spot. That is edge level pass rush production and to me if he is there at #9 there is no question he is the best player available and the Bills would select him.

I agree with this. I like Oliver. If they go edge, I think Brian Burns may be near the top of their list, though either may go before nine.

Edited March 26, 2019 by Dr. Who

[Just Joshin']

10 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I agree with this. I like Oliver. If they go edge, I think Brian Burns may be near the top of their list, though either may go before nine.

I get that Burns is a likely first round pick.  I do not see him as top 9, especially if 2 QBs go in top 8. 

 

Why do you think he ranks above the other top rated players?

 

IMO he had High bust potential.

[billsredneck1]

54 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

This is an interesting point.  I don't think it's all on Frazier.  I think McD likes to come with just four.  I tend to agree with you.  We will see if the philosophy changes.  I have to think that with Edmunds speed they'd be looking for opportunities to get him free runs at the qb, let alone coming from other positions, as well. 

one things for sure, it doesn't matter who they add, they are gonna have to update their approach to climb up from 26th in sacks.

[Dr. Who]

4 minutes ago, Just Joshin' said:

I get that Burns is a likely first round pick.  I do not see him as top 9, especially if 2 QBs go in top 8. 

 

Why do you think he ranks above the other top rated players?

 

IMO he had High bust potential.

Bosa and Allen are mentioned as the top two EDGE choices. Some like Sweat a lot, but right now, he relies on speed and has one move. Burns already has creativity and multiple ways of attacking o-linemen. Not sure if one is allowed to post links, so I won't, but there's a good analysis, imo, over at The Draft Network on Burns. Those who compare him to Maybin are mistaken. Burns can carry more weight and maintain athleticism. He isn't the beneficiary of clean-up sacks. It honestly wouldn't shock me if he ends up being picked ahead of Allen.

[Shaw66]

52 minutes ago, BuffAlone said:

He's also said that obviously if a QB is rated above a DL, guess who we are taking? The BPA thing is predicated on their board, not ours or the media. I think its important to keep that in mind. So lets say they have Haskins ranked ahead of Oliver and they are both there at 9. That will be a position of need being taken instead of BPA. And I think they set their board up with those particulars factored in, and BPA in that instance is completely removed from the board because its not a need. I mean, if we had Aaron Donald, and say Geno Atkins already on the team, we would not be drafting a DT round one. It would be a disservice to the overall team IMO. So, we should take the BPA sermon he preaches with the notion that BPA DOES in fact meet need when they set up their board. Idk, just my take on it

I don't know what they would do in the Donald-Atkins situation, but I'd guess that if they're on the clock and a QB is their BPA, they don't take Oliver.  They trade out of 9, maybe throw in a sixth, and get a pick later in the first plus a second.  There's more value in that than in any non-qb you're likely to get at 9. 

 

Your future is not determined by non-qb stars.  Jerry Rice might be the exception.  Getting three guys like Tre White, Kiko Alonso and Phillips is better than Oliver and one other.  

 

If a legit top 10 rated qb is on the board at 9, I expect the Bills to trade down.

[IgotBILLStopay]

13 hours ago, Gugny said:

Bills will draft the best pass rusher in the draft.  Just watch.

I am kinda hoping for best DT available - but wouldnt complain if it is a game changing DE.

[Shaw66]

16 minutes ago, billsredneck1 said:

one things for sure, it doesn't matter who they add, they are gonna have to update their approach to climb up from 26th in sacks.

I agree, if for no reason other to force the oline and QB to be worried about the possibility.  You get killed if the offense knows you're bringing the same 4 every play, especially against the better qbs.  Brady has to be worried about getting hit if you're going to have a chance against him. 

Just now, IgotBILLStopay said:

I am kinda hoping for best DT available - but wouldnt complain if it is a game changing DE.

I don't think you get a game changing anything at 9.  Everyone wants a game changer, and it's rare to have more than a couple in a draft, other than qbs.  

[blacklabel]

Obviously it depends on who gets picked ahead of them but just based on the DL talent in this draft, I really don't see how any of those DL wouldn't be the BPA when they're up at #9. 

[IgotBILLStopay]

2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I don't think you get a game changing anything at 9.  Everyone wants a game changer, and it's rare to have more than a couple in a draft, other than qbs.  

 

One can always hope, no?

 

That said Urlacher, Keuchly, Tyron Smith, Fred Taylor, Bruce Matthews (for the old timers) were all picked #9 and changed the game enough for me, my friend.

[formerlyofCtown]

Then another player was BPA.  

13 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

1.  I think Ansah is still a possibility, but ONLY if its before the draft.  Once the draft starts, Ansah wont be a Bill if he wasn't already.

 

2.  I seriously doubt they trade for Clowney.  I do think Frank Clark is a possibility though, just reports seem to suggest we aren't interested, so seems like a low possibility.  

 

3.  I think if we stay at 9 we will certainly pick an EDGE rusher over say one of the DTs.  Although I also still wouldn't rule out a weapon for Josh.  

 

4.  I think plan A is to trade down.  

They will have a tough descision to make if a DE and DT are on the board with the same grade.  Maybe trade down a couple spots if its safe to do so.

[DCbillsfan]

2 hours ago, billsredneck1 said:

most of it had much to do with that old time blockheaded insistence on thinking you'll get plenty of pressure with the front 4 and not stunting or blitzing.

ie.  look at what the pats did to rivers. they sent someone(s) every single snap.

 

every time we sent bush or neal we got a sack.  a lot of this is on mcfrazier. we can draft the top 5 guys but a stubborn conservative defense will nullify talent.

even kyle made mention of that.

I agree with this.  I think it's a combination of both talent and playcalling.  Need more talent and more agressive play call i.e. blitzing.