Why are the Browns the sexy pick?

[Mr. WEO]

8 hours ago, The Red King said:

Alright, since some are still missing the point, lemmie try again...

 

I am not saying the Browns can't be a better team.  I'm not saying they can't possibly end up as good as the Pats or Chargers.  Not saying that at all.  My problem is, they went 7-8-1 last season, a losing record.  They made some changes that make them look good on paper alone.  Yet, despite all that, people are already willing to put them on par with the Pats and Chargers before a single snap is played.  That's where I take issue.  The potential is there, yes, but maybe wait and see how all the parts actually work together for a game or two before crowning them best of the AFC.

 

 

Everyone got your point the first time.

 

Many disagree with it.  

 

Mainly because no one, least of all the article you originally posted, is "crowning them the best of the AFC"...

[Matt_In_NH]

The QB is important. Look at how well Mayfield played last year.  Then look at the talent they have added.  Maybe it wont work out but its pretty obvious why they are the "sexy pick".  Next question.

[Teddy KGB]

On 3/14/2019 at 7:54 PM, The Red King said:

 

Yeah, but best in the entire AFC?

 

I don’t think it’s far fetched at all. 

 

Loaded on both sides of the ball, and got Scrubrod off the roster. 

[The Red King]

I guess time will tell.  But if they're not every bit as good as the Pats and Chargers this season, I reserve the right to laugh my ass off at anyone on this post who's already declaring they are without a single down played.  Remember, not just improved, but on par with the Pats and Chargers.

[aristocrat]

I just don’t know if kitchens is the guy to keep it together. 

[The Red King]

My point is, it's not that it isn't possible, on paper it is.  My point is, such claims are premature.  This is an organization that went 1-31 before going 7-9-1.  There were a lot of people saying they were a playoff team leading into last season.  How well did those predictions play out?  Talks of them being a playoff team this season are reasonable.  But on par with the Pats and Chargers?  Sorry, going to need to see a few games first.

[CommonCents]

2 minutes ago, The Red King said:

My point is, it's not that it isn't possible, on paper it is.  My point is, such claims are premature.  This is an organization that went 1-31 before going 7-9-1.  There were a lot of people saying they were a playoff team leading into last season.  How well did those predictions play out?  Talks of them being a playoff team this season are reasonable.  But on par with the Pats and Chargers?  Sorry, going to need to see a few games first.

I feel like they have an explosive set of guys on and off the field. It will be really good or really bad on the field. 

 

Is Mayfield a big enough personality to keep the two LSU WRs from running the team? That’s the biggest question for me. 

Edited May 18, 2019 by CommonCents

[billsfan1959]

20 minutes ago, The Red King said:

My point is, it's not that it isn't possible, on paper it is.  My point is, such claims are premature.  This is an organization that went 1-31 before going 7-9-1.  There were a lot of people saying they were a playoff team leading into last season.  How well did those predictions play out?  Talks of them being a playoff team this season are reasonable.  But on par with the Pats and Chargers?  Sorry, going to need to see a few games first.

Claims about how any team will perform are premature. They are merely projections based on past performance, off-season improvements, overall talent level on the roster, and any number of other variables taken alone or together. Anyone who objectively looks at the Cleveland Browns will see a team that has been stockpiling talent and was trending upward in play last season. They absolutely deserve to be in the conversation of which teams could be the best in the AFC in 2019.

[BarleyNY]

9 minutes ago, The Red King said:

My point is, it's not that it isn't possible, on paper it is.  My point is, such claims are premature.  This is an organization that went 1-31 before going 7-9-1.  There were a lot of people saying they were a playoff team leading into last season.  How well did those predictions play out?  Talks of them being a playoff team this season are reasonable.  But on par with the Pats and Chargers?  Sorry, going to need to see a few games first.

 

Who was saying that the Browns were a playoff team before last season?  Even Browns homers weren’t saying that - especially with Hue remaining HC.  There was hope that with Dorsey there’d be a turnaround starting, but there were still a lot of questions.  Hue and Gregg were two big ones.  Even Mayfield was unproven and a controversial pick.  Things started picking up after he got in his first game and led the comeback against the Jest.  Then excitement grew when Hue and Haley were canned and Kitchens took over the offense.  Now Gregg and his ridiculous defensive scheme is gone too.  Dorsey has added a lot of talent and a much better coaching staff to a team that went 5-2 over their last 7 games.  Sorry, but there’s very good reason for the hype.   Expecting the Browns to be in the playoffs this season is pretty reasonable.  Saying that they are “premature” makes no sense.  If you’re going to make a prediction, then it should be what you expect.  Right?  By your rules I guess I can’t predict playoffs for the Bills either since they only had 6 wins last season.  But based on what they’ve added I think they’ve got a real shot at playoffs too.  Why hold back that prediction because they didn’t do it last season?  Or because they’ve been poor for so many preceding seasons that have little to do with this one?

[SoTier]

9 hours ago, The Red King said:

Alright, since some are still missing the point, lemmie try again...

 

I am not saying the Browns can't be a better team.  I'm not saying they can't possibly end up as good as the Pats or Chargers.  Not saying that at all.  My problem is, they went 7-8-1 last season, a losing record.  They made some changes that make them look good on paper alone.  Yet, despite all that, people are already willing to put them on par with the Pats and Chargers before a single snap is played.  That's where I take issue.  The potential is there, yes, but maybe wait and see how all the parts actually work together for a game or two before crowning them best of the AFC.

 

Why not?????   Did you watch Mayfield play much last season?   He demonstrated every bit as much leadership as Josh Allen did but added excellent passing ability to it.   Mayfield still has to get better, but  It's a lot easier to score a run when you start from third base rather than from first or second, and that's about where Mayfield was last season in relation to his fellow rookie QBs.   Mayfield needs to make the least improve to become a decent NFL QB while the other guys all have to improve much more to get to the same place.  If Mayfield improves significantly over what he did last season -- which is what Bills, Jets, Dolphins, and Ravens fans all expect their kids to do -- then he'll be up there with Wentz, Goff, and Mahomes as a budding young superstar.

 

Moreover, the Browns, like the Rams pre-McVay, had added talent over the years  -- especially since John Dorsey took over -- that was obscured by poor coaching.  Most analysts think that with better coaching than Hue Jackson provided last season, the Browns could have won 8 or 9 games -- and they've added considerable veteran talent through FA and trades in 2019.   The 2018 Browns reminded analysts of the sudden rise of the Eagles and Rams under new regimes in 2017.   The same questions being asked about Kitchens (who was interim OC last season after Haley got canned) were asked about McVay in 2017.

 

If Bills fans believe the Bills are  a 9+ win team in 2019 because of the anticipated improvement in Allen and what they've done in the off-season, how is it unreasonable to think that a team that was more talented, had a better rookie QB, and that played better than the Bills in 2018 should also improve after adding more talent in the off season? 

 

 

29 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

Who was saying that the Browns were a playoff team before last season?  Even Browns homers weren’t saying that - especially with Hue remaining HC.  There was hope that with Dorsey there’d be a turnaround starting, but there were still a lot of questions.  Hue and Gregg were two big ones.  Even Mayfield was unproven and a controversial pick.  Things started picking up after he got in his first game and led the comeback against the Jest.  Then excitement grew when Hue and Haley were canned and Kitchens took over the offense.  Now Gregg and his ridiculous defensive scheme is gone too.  Dorsey has added a lot of talent and a much better coaching staff to a team that went 5-2 over their last 7 games.  Sorry, but there’s very good reason for the hype.   Expecting the Browns to be in the playoffs this season is pretty reasonable.  Saying that they are “premature” makes no sense.  If you’re going to make a prediction, then it should be what you expect.  Right?  By your rules I guess I can’t predict playoffs for the Bills either since they only had 6 wins last season.  But based on what they’ve added I think they’ve got a real shot at playoffs too.  Why hold back that prediction because they didn’t do it last season?  Or because they’ve been poor for so many preceding seasons that have little to do with this one?

 

Great minds think alike!  You posted this while I was writing mine!  They say pretty much the same thing!!! 

[plenzmd1]

16 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

Why not?????   Did you watch Mayfield play much last season?   He demonstrated every bit as much leadership as Josh Allen did but added excellent passing ability to it.   Mayfield still has to get better, but  It's a lot easier to score a run when you start from third base rather than from first or second, and that's about where Mayfield was last season in relation to his fellow rookie QBs.   Mayfield needs to make the least improve to become a decent NFL QB while the other guys all have to improve much more to get to the same place.  If Mayfield improves significantly over what he did last season -- which is what Bills, Jets, Dolphins, and Ravens fans all expect their kids to do -- then he'll be up there with Wentz, Goff, and Mahomes as a budding young superstar.

 

Moreover, the Browns, like the Rams pre-McVay, had added talent over the years  -- especially since John Dorsey took over -- that was obscured by poor coaching.  Most analysts think that with better coaching than Hue Jackson provided last season, the Browns could have won 8 or 9 games -- and they've added considerable veteran talent through FA and trades in 2019.   The 2018 Browns reminded analysts of the sudden rise of the Eagles and Rams under new regimes in 2017.   The same questions being asked about Kitchens (who was interim OC last season after Haley got canned) were asked about McVay in 2017.

 

If Bills fans believe the Bills are  a 9+ win team in 2019 because of the anticipated improvement in Allen and what they've done in the off-season, how is it unreasonable to think that a team that was more talented, had a better rookie QB, and that played better than the Bills in 2018 should also improve after adding more talent in the off season? 

 

 

Couple things here

 

1) Browns win the opener against the Steelers last year, no doubt, if Mayfield starts that game. Tyrod lost that game plain and simple.

 

2) Mayfield was always my first choice, i think he is the best of the bunch. Having said that, he had tons more weapons and far more creative play calling once Kitchens took over than JA did till late in the season. Once Dabol shifted a bit late in the season, JA started to play better. Still think Mayfield is the just the better QB.

 

3) Having said all that, I could give a rats behind what media think, all I care about is what is the gambling opportunity. And I see zero edge to playing the Browns now. There are valid points that all the excitement is just on paper now, they have not proven they can play together yet...OBJ only spending one day in Cleveland since the trade can be viewed as a negative for instance, Kitchens has not coached a full year yet,  with all the associated tape study by opponents,  let alone one with expectations in a long-downtrodden city that will be pressure-packed to win from game 1.

 

and look at this opening schedule from week 2 -9

 

@Jets Monday Night

Rams Home

@Ravens

@49er Monday night

Seahawks at home (after a west coast Monday nighter)

@New England

@Denver

 

Not an easy gauntlet there and a 2-6 or  3-5 record at the halfway mark may make things really uneasy there.

 

And at even money to win the divion..no freaking way they getting my money on that side, that you can take to the bank.

 

 

Edited May 18, 2019 by plenzmd1

[Kirby Jackson]

13 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

After two decades of top 5 talent (due to drafting top 5) masked by horrid coaching and management they’re due ? 

I honestly think the change in management changed it all. Dorsey is legit. Additionally, they got the QB (which they have failed at for a generation). The Browns are going to be really good. 

[Happy Days Lois & Clark]

The Browns Rookie QB threw 27 td passes last season & they have a solid roster overall is why the Browns are favorites this season.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

27 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I honestly think the change in management changed it all. Dorsey is legit. Additionally, they got the QB (which they have failed at for a generation). The Browns are going to be really good. 

 

...I would throw in "potentially" for good measure only because a rookie HC is in charge of keeping all of the talented egos on the same page for 16 games......

[Kirby Jackson]

42 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...I would throw in "potentially" for good measure only because a rookie HC is in charge of keeping all of the talented egos on the same page for 16 games......

That’s fair, but he did a great job last year (although OBJ wasn’t in the room). I think that they’ll be 10-6 or 11-5. Their division isn’t very good at the moment. They should win at least 2 games vs. our division. I think that they win 3 vs. the NFC west. Their crossover games are against Titans and Broncos, should be wins. If they play .500 in their division that’s 10-6. That feels reasonable to me.

Edited May 18, 2019 by Kirby Jackson

[Ga boy]

1 hour ago, plenzmd1 said:

Couple things here

 

1) Browns win the opener against the Steelers last year, no doubt, if Mayfield starts that game. Tyrod lost that game plain and simple.

 

2) Mayfield was always my first choice, i think he is the best of the bunch. Having said that, he had tons more weapons and far more creative play calling once Kitchens took over than JA did till late in the season. Once Dabol shifted a bit late in the season, JA started to play better. Still think Mayfield is the just the better QB.

 

3) Having said all that, I could give a rats behind what media think, all I care about is what is the gambling opportunity. And I see zero edge to playing the Browns now. There are valid points that all the excitement is just on paper now, they have not proven they can play together yet...OBJ only spending one day in Cleveland since the trade can be viewed as a negative for instance, Kitchens has not coached a full year yet,  with all the associated tape study by opponents,  let alone one with expectations in a long-downtrodden city that will be pressure-packed to win from game 1.

 

and look at this opening schedule from week 2 -9

 

@Jets Monday Night

Rams Home

@Ravens

@49er Monday night

Seahawks at home (after a west coast Monday nighter)

@New England

@Denver

 

Not an easy gauntlet there and a 2-6 or  3-5 record at the halfway mark may make things really uneasy there.

 

And at even money to win the divion..no freaking way they getting my money on that side, that you can take to the bank.

 

 

Dawgs have the talent to beat all of them. I think they'll be 6-2, then finish 11-5 since they'll beat everyone in their division twice.  BTW, I think Bills will be 10-6 and get a wild card.  In 2020, Browns-Bills in AFC champ game.  Go Bills!!! 

[The Red King]

3 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

Why not?????   Did you watch Mayfield play much last season?   He demonstrated every bit as much leadership as Josh Allen did but added excellent passing ability to it.   Mayfield still has to get better, but  It's a lot easier to score a run when you start from third base rather than from first or second, and that's about where Mayfield was last season in relation to his fellow rookie QBs.   Mayfield needs to make the least improve to become a decent NFL QB while the other guys all have to improve much more to get to the same place.  If Mayfield improves significantly over what he did last season -- which is what Bills, Jets, Dolphins, and Ravens fans all expect their kids to do -- then he'll be up there with Wentz, Goff, and Mahomes as a budding young superstar.

 

Moreover, the Browns, like the Rams pre-McVay, had added talent over the years  -- especially since John Dorsey took over -- that was obscured by poor coaching.  Most analysts think that with better coaching than Hue Jackson provided last season, the Browns could have won 8 or 9 games -- and they've added considerable veteran talent through FA and trades in 2019.   The 2018 Browns reminded analysts of the sudden rise of the Eagles and Rams under new regimes in 2017.   The same questions being asked about Kitchens (who was interim OC last season after Haley got canned) were asked about McVay in 2017.

 

If Bills fans believe the Bills are  a 9+ win team in 2019 because of the anticipated improvement in Allen and what they've done in the off-season, how is it unreasonable to think that a team that was more talented, had a better rookie QB, and that played better than the Bills in 2018 should also improve after adding more talent in the off season? 

 

 

 

Great minds think alike!  You posted this while I was writing mine!  They say pretty much the same thing!!! 

 

...and this is why I'm done with this thread.  People skim, rather then read, then blindly fire off a reply.  Reread what I said, the part you bolded, and the sentence following.  Your entire reply is based off misreading mine.  But you were just chomping at the bit, so fired up, that you had to reply without paying attention and end up looking the fool.  Here, let me help...

 

"I'm not saying they can't possibly be as good as..."

 

To which you reply "Why not?" ...sooo...you want me to say they can't possibly be as good as the Pats and Chargers then?  The rest of your post suggests otherwise.

 

Next time, actually take time to fully read a reply, rather then skimming, assuming, and firing off a knee-jerk reply that makes you look foolish.

[plenzmd1]

1 hour ago, Ga boy said:

Dawgs have the talent to beat all of them. I think they'll be 6-2, then finish 11-5 since they'll beat everyone in their division twice.  BTW, I think Bills will be 10-6 and get a wild card.  In 2020, Browns-Bills in AFC champ game.  Go Bills!!! 

They very well may do that... they very well may not. 1 game better than the Bills last year, and the bills had that killer opening stretch last year. 

 

All i I am saying g is that from a betting angle, there is no edge to betting them at 1-1 money. Just always remember when the public things zig, better to zag on a wager. And the public LOVES the Brownies right now. 

 

As a a matter of fact, I will book your bet at even money Browns don’t win the division up to $100 if you are going to bet it.   I don’t love it either way, but I will just take the opposite of the public right now, and this way we don’t pay a vig??

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

..no disrespect, but let them have the limelight as the formidable "new kid on the block" while we quietly go about business "under the radar".....kinda like a "Stormin' Norman Schwarzkopf" sneak attack myself....

[RocCityRoller]

4 hours ago, Superhero said:

The Browns Rookie QB threw 27 td passes last season & they have a solid roster overall is why the Browns are favorites this season.

 

Not to mention the Steelers lost a lot of talent on offense, and Ben is getting older

 

The Ravens lost 3 stud defenders, the hallmark of that team

 

Cincy is quietly in a rebuild mode right now, especially on offense.

[frostbitmic]

The Browns did pretty well despite having Hue Jackson and then Gregg Williams as HC's.

 

IIRC their Kicker also missed a few kicks that would've resulted in wins.

 

With the Bengals rebuilding, the Steelers regressing and the Ravens treading water, the Browns appear to be much the best in the AFC North.

[Ga boy]

7 hours ago, plenzmd1 said:

They very well may do that... they very well may not. 1 game better than the Bills last year, and the bills had that killer opening stretch last year. 

 

All i I am saying g is that from a betting angle, there is no edge to betting them at 1-1 money. Just always remember when the public things zig, better to zag on a wager. And the public LOVES the Brownies right now. 

 

As a a matter of fact, I will book your bet at even money Browns don’t win the division up to $100 if you are going to bet it.   I don’t love it either way, but I will just take the opposite of the public right now, and this way we don’t pay a vig??

How bout Pats winning division?  Would you bet against that?  or just against sexy picks?  Just wondering who you would bet to win that division if not the Brown Dawgs?

[LSHMEAB]

48 minutes ago, Ga boy said:

How bout Pats winning division?  Would you bet against that?  or just against sexy picks?  Just wondering who you would bet to win that division if not the Brown Dawgs?

He's not saying the Browns WON'T win the division. He's saying the value is gone. LJax COULD be much better than the board believes and the Ravens could finish ahead of the Browns. Big Ben COULD have a huge season with JuJu and they COULD be better off without AB and LB creating distractions. Cincy. I doubt it, but their HC COULD be some kind of genius.

 

I believe the Browns will win that division, but it's far from a lock. Betting wise, the current reward is not worth the risk.

 

The Pats may represent some value. You put up 400 to win 100, so you're gonna have to put up a ton of money to make money. What if Brady gets hurt or the dynasty ends with a thud? There's a reason books/bookies exist and it isn't to hand out free money.

Edited May 19, 2019 by LSHMEAB

[Figster]

11 hours ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

..no disrespect, but let them have the limelight as the formidable "new kid on the block" while we quietly go about business "under the radar".....kinda like a "Stormin' Norman Schwarzkopf" sneak attack myself....

Josh Allen/ Stealth Bomber...

 

 

[cle23]

12 hours ago, plenzmd1 said:

They very well may do that... they very well may not. 1 game better than the Bills last year, and the bills had that killer opening stretch last year. 

 

The Browns SoS last year was 5th hardest, while Buffalo was 18th. 

[Boca BIlls]

I think the word is called Coprophilia

[plenzmd1]

10 hours ago, Ga boy said:

How bout Pats winning division?  Would you bet against that?  or just against sexy picks?  Just wondering who you would bet to win that division if not the Brown Dawgs?

As I mentioned, I don’t like any of the bets on that division. I Think Cleveland will most likely win, but not enough to only get even money. If I was getting 3-1, maybe even 2-1, then the Browns get attractive  to lay actual money.  

 

But as I said up thread, if you are going to bet anything on it, I  am more than happy to play the book. I am not saying you are wrong, just that I think even money is a bit off 

 

Same as how I think the Bills go over 6 1/2 wins, but at -170 I ain’t coming close to that bet. 

5 hours ago, cle23 said:

 

The Browns SoS last year was 5th hardest, while Buffalo was 18th. 

Could be, and I am way to lazy to look it up. But think the Bills opened up 6 out of 9 against eventual playoff teams, and 5 out of first 7 on the road. It was a brutal way to start a season, especially with a rookie QB. 

 

Bills went 4-3 down the stretch when they hit the easier part of the schedule. 

 

And  the Browns have that type of schedule this year. On paper, Brutal up front eases up after week 9. They go 6-2 in the first half, they may compete for home field. 

 

They go 3-5, pressure in the room could .. again could, be something a rookie coach does not know how to handle. 

Edited May 19, 2019 by plenzmd1

[SoTier]

5 hours ago, cle23 said:

 

The Browns SoS last year was 5th hardest, while Buffalo was 18th. 

 

Facts are irrelevant to homerism.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

4 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

Facts are irrelevant to homerism.

That holds true everywhere.  My ‘thanks’ on your comment is not an indictment against the Buffalo fan base.

[plenzmd1]

5 hours ago, cle23 said:

 

The Browns SoS last year was 5th hardest, while Buffalo was 18th. 

BTW, where did you find that stat..might be useful in some research I am doing ?

 

This way i don't have to manually do it.

 

Thx in advance.

[plenzmd1]

33 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

Facts are irrelevant to homerism.

have you read any of my responses? Show me anywhere in there where my logic on not betting the Browns at even money is based in Bills homerism???

 

For that matter, please show me where the "fact" that the SOS at the end of the year was in "fact" what was stated. 

 

I saw those rankings as preseason rankings based on 2017 records... useless stat. 

 

The best i can find for end of season is here..a real SOS indicater..

 

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/afcsosag.html

 

That has the Browns 6th, and the Bills 9th...

 

I am hoping he can point me in the right direction , as i cannot find end of season real SOS outside of DVOA rankings..and that could be a useful stat deciding on actual real money wagers

Edited May 19, 2019 by plenzmd1

[SoTier]

1 minute ago, plenzmd1 said:

have you read any of my responses? Show me anywhere in there where my logic on not betting the Browns at even money is based in Bills homerism???

 

For that matter, please show me where the "fact" that the SOS at the end of the year was in "fact" what was stated. 

 

I saw those rankings as preseason rankings based on 2017 records... useless stat. 

 

I am hoping he can point me in the right direction there, as i cannot find end of season real SOS outside of DVOA rankings..and that could be a useful stat deciding on actual real money wagers

 

It wasn't aimed at you or what you posted.   It was a general statement in response to the post saying that the Browns had a tougher SOS than the Bills because many posters on TSW like to spin scenarios that make the Bills look good when those scenarios aren't supported by facts ... and sometimes just the opposite.

 

I understand your reasoning about the Browns.  Yours is a very different rationale than the simple minded dismissal of predictions that the Browns could be a very good or excellent team simply because  the Bills are the only team allowed to make a sudden leap from bottom feeder to SB contender ... at least in the minds of some homers on TSW.