Bills fall from 6th to 10th in Draft Order

[Clemfield2622]

Just now, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

I don’t care about draft position right now. I do care about establishing a winning culture, JA’s confidence (and by extension, that of his young wideouts), and momentum to flash for potential established FA’s so maybe the overpayments aren’t as bad. For the draft, it’s a highly speculative science even in the best of slots (just ask the Brownies over the past decade until finally hitting the lotto this year) and I have a feeling we won’t stay pat wherever we end up regardless. Too many unknowns right now to worry about. Just win baby!!

 

Sorry, don't buy it. Never have. 

 

Remember when the Bills were 0-8 and had the inside track to the #1 pick in possibly the best draft in NFL history? They brought Fitz in, went 4-4 and ended up picking Dareus, who was about the only non QB bust in the top 11 that year.

 

Did those 4 big wins carry over to the next year, or did it just stop them from drafting their franchise QB for 7 more years?

[jimmy10]

1 hour ago, PaattMaann said:

winning/playing well is more important than a few draft spots. Sorry but it is. Lets keep the JA train rolling. 

 

Exactly. The negative nancy bean-counting around record and draft position is tiresome. 

[SCBills]

4 minutes ago, Clemfield2622 said:

 

Sorry, don't buy it. Never have. 

 

Remember when the Bills were 0-8 and had the inside track to the #1 pick in possibly the best draft in NFL history? They brought Fitz in, went 4-4 and ended up picking Dareus, who was about the only non QB bust in the top 11 that year.

 

Did those 4 big wins carry over to the next year, or did it just stop them from drafting their franchise QB for 7 more years?

 

We have a completely different staff evaluating talent and we have our franchise QB. 

 

I highly doubt McBeane will be out here drafting any Marcell's.  They might draft another Zay somewhere, but even he isn't useless with no work ethic.

 

Edited December 17, 2018 by SCBills

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

2 minutes ago, Clemfield2622 said:

 

Sorry, don't buy it. Never have. 

 

Remember when the Bills were 0-8 and had the inside track to the #1 pick in possibly the best draft in NFL history? They brought Fitz in, went 4-4 and ended up picking Dareus, who was about the only non QB bust in the top 11 that year.

 

Did those 4 big wins carry over to the next year, or did it just stop them from drafting their franchise QB for 7 more years?

 

We've drafted our QB. So that's kind of a moot point.

 

[NoHuddleKelly12]

Just now, Clemfield2622 said:

 

Sorry, don't buy it. Never have. 

 

Remember when the Bills were 0-8 and had the inside track to the #1 pick in possibly the best draft in NFL history? They brought Fitz in, went 4-4 and ended up picking Dareus, who was about the only non QB bust in the top 11 that year.

 

Did those 4 big wins carry over to the next year, or did it just stop them from drafting their franchise QB for 7 more years?

It’s a little different when you are developing what is hopefully already your franchise bedrock QB for the next 10+ years, that you just selected #7 overall in 1st round, no? 

[Clemfield2622]

1 minute ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

And which QB is going to have teams giving up that kind of bounty? and Qhich teams are going to be looking for a QB?

Because REALLY that's where the big "trade-down" bounties are manufactured, as you said.

 

Have you ever looked at mock drafts even this time of year against what ends up happening? There are guys being projected as 1st rounders today that might end up going in the 5th round in 6 months, and vice versa.

 

For the record, McShay does have 2 QB's going in his top 10. But as of now, 7 of the teams picking in the top 10 have either young QB's or QB's making a butt ton of money. Jax, Tampa and NYG would likely be looking QB. Those teams could be willing to pay to move up to secure a QB knowing a team looking for a defender would take the extra assets while pushing D prospects down the board. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, Clemfield2622 said:

Have you ever looked at mock drafts even this time of year against what ends up happening? There are guys being projected as 1st rounders today that might end up going in the 5th round in 6 months, and vice versa.

 

For the record, McShay does have 2 QB's going in his top 10. But as of now, 7 of the teams picking in the top 10 have either young QB's or QB's making a butt ton of money. Jax, Tampa and NYG would likely be looking QB. Those teams could be willing to pay to move up to secure a QB knowing a team looking for a defender would take the extra assets while pushing D prospects down the board. 

 

I generally don't start looking at mock drafts until after the college bowls and the super bowl.

 

 

[SCBills]

Lets say we win one or both of our remaining games and end up drafting around 15..  Worst case draft scenario. 

 

1st Round - Prime position for an elite OL or WR talent.

2nd Round - Prime position for a very good G/C or WR talent.

3rd Round - Prime position for a legit RB

 

If we come out of the first 3 rounds with an OL, WR and RB to go with the assumed FA signings of an OL (or 2) and a WR or TE, what are we stressing about?   We've got our QB.  We've got a good defense for next year.  Between FA & the Draft, we can most likely add 2-3 OL upgrades, 2 pass catching upgrades and a RB upgrade to go with Josh Allen, Shady, Foster, McKenzie, Zay, Croom, Clay, Dawkins and Teller. 

 

Our defense will need to be addressed in the following offseason re: pass rusher, but with Hughes, Lawson, Star, Phillips, Edmunds, Milano, White, Johnson, Hyde & Poyer, there's plenty of talent for McDermott and Frazier to work with in 2019.

 

Edited December 17, 2018 by SCBills

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, SCBills said:

Lets say we win one or both of our remaining games and end up drafting around 15..  Worst case draft scenario. 

 

1st Round - Prime position for an elite OL or WR talent.

2nd Round - Prime position for a very good G/C or WR talent.

3rd Round - Prime position for a legit RB

 

If we come out of the first 3 rounds with an OL, WR and RB to go with the assumed FA signings of an OL (or 2) and a WR or TE, what are we stressing about?   We've got our QB.  We've got a good defense for next year.  We can most likely add 2-3 OL upgrades, 2 pass catching upgrades and a RB upgrade to go with Josh Allen, Shady, Foster, McKenzie, Zay, Croom, Clay, Dawkins and Teller. 

 

Our defense will need to be addressed in the following offseason re: pass rusher, but with Hughes, Lawson, Edmunds, Milano, White, Johnson, Hyde & Poyer, there's plenty of talent for McDermott and Frazier to work with in 2019.

 

Dude, you get it. Great post.

 

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, T master said:

 

It would be nice but i don't see them winning either of their last 2 games ? The Pats are pissed & have had our number for years & the Fins are playing really good or at least it seems that way .

 

I hope they prove me wrong but it wouldn't hurt my feelings seeing as the rest of this season is to see what we have on the roster as keepers a top 5 draft pick would be a nice consolation prize to get our starting LT of the future !! 

 

Fins just got demolished by Minnesota and allowed 40+ points

[Clemfield2622]

because you can never have too many good young cheap players. to assume the Bills are going to get a good OL, WR or TE in free agency at this point is wishful thinking. They are not the only team with cap room. Jets, Browns, Colts, Dallas, Raiders, Cards, Texans, Seahawks, Niners, Bengals all have over 50m in cap room.

 

There is going to be a lot of competition for the players who do get to market. That's likely going to cause most of these players to get paid more than they're worth. That's why drafted players are preferable, because of cost control. 

 

[1st Ammendment NoMas]

1 hour ago, Clemfield2622 said:

 

No, it's not.

 

Don't get me wrong, while I am excited to see Allen develop, the draft position never stops being important. 3 days after the season ends, you will not remember these useless victories, but you will then immediately wish we picked higher. 

Tell that to the guys in the locker room. McD's post game speech and the energy in the locker room is contagious after a win, especially at home. That carries into the off-season. When a team finds a way to "win" it becomes part of the culture.  You go into Foxborough and take out the Pats next week and you don't think that affects the core of this team moving forward. I will take that win over drafting 3 places higher any day of the week.  Good teams find good players everywhere in the draft.  

Did 3 positions net Robert Foster? WIN! WIN!! WIN!!! at all costs. 

 

 

10 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Between FA & the Draft, we can most likely add 2-3 OL upgrades, 2 pass catching upgrades and a RB upgrade to go with Josh Allen, Shady, Foster, McKenzie, Zay, Croom, Clay, Dawkins and Teller. 

 

Fixed. 

[Success]

I can’t relate to preferring a slightly higher draft pick over beating the Pats at Gillette and likely wrecking a bye week and any hope they’d have in the playoffs.

[SCBills]

13 minutes ago, BillsRdue said:

Tell that to the guys in the locker room. McD's post game speech and the energy in the locker room is contagious after a win, especially at home. That carries into the off-season. When a team finds a way to "win" it becomes part of the culture.  You go into Foxborough and take out the Pats next week and you don't think that affects the core of this team moving forward. I will take that win over drafting 3 places higher any day of the week.  Good teams find good players everywhere in the draft.  

Did 3 positions net Robert Foster? WIN! WIN!! WIN!!! at all costs. 

 

 

 

Fixed. 

 

I'd have no problem cutting them but I don't think we will.  Clay is a wash financially and I think they A) Hope Shady still has another year left in him behind a better OL and B) like the vet leadership he provides for the offensive side of the ball.

 

Edited December 17, 2018 by SCBills

[GunnerBill]

23 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

Our defense will need to be addressed in the following offseason re: pass rusher, but with Hughes, Lawson, Star, Phillips, Edmunds, Milano, White, Johnson, Hyde & Poyer, there's plenty of talent for McDermott and Frazier to work with in 2019.

 

 

I agree except I don't think we can wait again on pass rusher. Our only two credible pass rushers are 36 and 31 by the time next season starts. To be banking on them repeating the excellent seasons they are having this year would be an extremely foolhardy move in my mind. You have seen what the defense looks like the games when we have struggled to get pressure. We need to take a pass rusher somewhere in the first three rounds. If that means a running back or a guard has to wait then so be it.

[Clemfield2622]

4 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

I'd have no problem cutting them but I don't think we will.  Clay is a wash financially and I think they A) Hope Shady still has another year left in him behind a better OL and B) like the vet leadership he provides for the offensive side of the ball.

 

Clay is not a wash financially. he saves 4.5mil. Even on a team with a ton of cap room, does it makes sense to carry 2 veterans who have been minimal contributors who next year would cost 18 million?

 

or you could cut them both and add another 10.5 mil to the pile. I think it's worth it to move on from both. Remember, cap space rolls over. So savings are savings. It is not use it or lose it. 

Edited December 17, 2018 by Clemfield2622

[SCBills]

4 minutes ago, Clemfield2622 said:

Clay is not a wash financially. he saves 4.5mil. Even on a team with a ton of cap room, does it makes sense to carry 2 veterans who have been minimal contributors who next year would cost 18 million?

 

or you could cut them both and add another 10.5 mil to the pile. I think it's worth it to move on from both. Remember, cap space rolls over. So savings are savings. It is not use it or lose it. 

 

We'd still have to use that money to sign another TE.  I'd happily be proven wrong by them cutting Clay.  Shady I'm on the fence about, but it can't be discounted that Murphy/Ford gave us the same production as Shady/Ivory yesterday.

[bigK14094]

The difference between #10 and #12 pick in the first round cannot be quantified really.  The uncertainty in performance of any particular draftee way exceeds the difference in talent in those close draft choices. So, don't worry.  8, 10, 12...macht nichs.....

[Mark80]

Really?  Are there actually people in here arguing that is better to draft lower in the draft (mid teens compared to top 10)?  Seriously?  You realize you can select the same person in the top 10 that you can select in the mid teens or 20's, right?  Or, you could even trade down to those spots and get more picks.  Imagine that.

 

Teams are ALWAYS looking to trade up to make sure they get the guy they want the most.  It's just a matter of how much they are willing to give up to do so.  Sure, for a blue chip QB they may be willing to give up multiple firsts and/or seconds.  Maybe they won't for a DB they want, but they may be willing to give up a third to jump up a few slots and that is still worth something to us.

Edited December 17, 2018 by Mark80

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, bigK14094 said:

..macht nichs.....

 

I haven't heard that since I lived in PA Dutch country.

 

Though they say it more like mawx nix.

 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

47 minutes ago, Clemfield2622 said:

 

Sorry, don't buy it. Never have. 

 

Remember when the Bills were 0-8 and had the inside track to the #1 pick in possibly the best draft in NFL history? They brought Fitz in, went 4-4 and ended up picking Dareus, who was about the only non QB bust in the top 11 that year.

 

Did those 4 big wins carry over to the next year, or did it just stop them from drafting their franchise QB for 7 more years?

 

Dareus can hardly be categorized as a bust.  Two consecutive pro bowl stunts during his rookie deal.

 

He only became a bust after the brinks truck backed into him. 

[berg1029]

Usually I would prefer to get the highest pick possible.  However, having a rookie quarterback.. seeing improvement in him is much more welcome than losing

[John from Riverside]

I have been banging the drum for best draft pick possible for a while now.....

 

but lets be realistic...this year was ALL ABOUT Josh Allen.....was from the moment he was drafted....shoot...it was when we traded Tyrod Taylor.

 

We are going to be in a good position to take either a OL or WR and have our pick because the defensive talent is going to push them down to us.

 

OL - 1st round

WR - 2nd round

RB - 3rd round

 

Oh....and we do have NINETY MILLION in cap space so there is that as well

[1st Ammendment NoMas]

8 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

He only became a bust after the brinks truck backed into him. 

 

They all do. I think it's human nature. Once it's all guaranteed, the incentive to risk your health is gone and effort takes a step back to security and comfort.

[BuffaloHokie13]

3 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

I have been banging the drum for best draft pick possible for a while now.....

 

but lets be realistic...this year was ALL ABOUT Josh Allen.....was from the moment he was drafted....shoot...it was when we traded Tyrod Taylor.

 

We are going to be in a good position to take either a OL or WR and have our pick because the defensive talent is going to push them down to us.

 

OL - 1st round

WR - 2nd round

RB - 3rd round

 

Oh....and we do have NINETY MILLION in cap space so there is that as well

It seems to me that BPA may well be DL, OL, and WR in rounds 1, 2, and 3 respectively, while also mostly addressing OL in the FA class with that 90 Mil you mentioned. Something like Rashan Gary, David Edwards, and Kelvin Harmon would be phenomenal in my book.

[Da webster guy]

 

This is a very different draft than last year.  We'll end up in the 7-12 draft slot and be fine getting the dudes we need.

 

You'll see the top teams looking hard to move back because a lot of them already have their qb.

 

Last year the scouting department had a big lull between Tremaine in the 1st and Harry in the 3rd.  This draft should be a little more consistent and then heat up with our double picks starting in the 4th round.

 

Exciting when you know we're taking a RB and WR somewhere in there.  Probably two of each.

[Clemfield2622]

3 minutes ago, Da webster guy said:

 

This is a very different draft than last year.  We'll end up in the 7-12 draft slot and be fine getting the dudes we need.

 

You'll see the top teams looking hard to move back because a lot of them already have their qb.

 

Last year the scouting department had a big lull between Tremaine in the 1st and Harry in the 3rd.  This draft should be a little more consistent and then heat up with our double picks starting in the 4th round.

 

Exciting when you know we're taking a RB and WR somewhere in there.  Probably two of each.

Unless of course they decide to use those extra picks in trade ups...again. 

[cba fan]

2 hours ago, Clemfield2622 said:

 

No, it's not.

 

Don't get me wrong, while I am excited to see Allen develop, the draft position never stops being important. 3 days after the season ends, you will not remember these useless victories, but you will then immediately wish we picked higher. 

Fans, and I think Allen, will never forget the grudge match win over the budding rivalry Jags this year.

 

Same if Allen can beat BB and the Cheats first time he faces them. On the road no less. That would be a huge confidence booster and could start a new trend we can only dream of.

[KW95 - JA17]

12 minutes ago, cba fan said:

Fans, and I think Allen, will never forget the grudge match win over the budding rivalry Jags this year.

 

Same if Allen can beat BB and the Cheats first time he faces them. On the road no less. That would be a huge confidence booster and could start a new trend we can only dream of.

 

Member that time the Bills beat the Pats 33-0 in week 1?    How did week 16 go?  ( hint: same score, switch teams )

[cba fan]

12 minutes ago, KW95 said:

 

Member that time the Bills beat the Pats 33-0 in week 1?    How did week 16 go?  ( hint: same score, switch teams )

I will never forget that beat down Bills put on Pats 31-0. A high point in Bills/Brady relationship.

Also will not forget the last game that year.

 

Not sure what your point is on that. Bills were not developing a rookie QB and Bledsoe decline was on full display.

Edited December 17, 2018 by cba fan

[KW95 - JA17]

1 minute ago, cba fan said:

I will never forget that beat down Bills put on Pats 33-0. A high point in Bills/Brady relationship.

Also will not forget the last game that year.

 

Not sure what your point is on that. Bills were not developing a rookie QB and Bledsoe decline was on full display.

 

I guess I've been Jaded for decades.

 

I just dont see any boost of any kind whether we beat the Pats or not next week.  And let's be honest.  We wont win.

 

Happy Holidays!

Edited December 17, 2018 by KW95

[ctk232]

3 hours ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

This is going to seem contrarian, especially coming from me....but I disagree. Why?

 

The Bills need OFFENSIVE help in the draft, and from what I've read/heard just about everyone in the top 10 is a defensive star. So rather than have them reach, I'd like to see them drop to take O help.

 

It's more likely they go BPA with their first pick, whether that be defense or offense, based upon Beane's last public comments regarding FA and the draft. It was posted in another thread that I'll need to track down, but if it isn't smoke and mirrors, it appears Beane would like to address as many needs (primarily offense based as they fall) through FA so they aren't shackled by needs come draft time, and can pick BPA per his preference. That being said, I wouldn't discount Beane entertaining trading back in the first and accumulating more picks, but don't be surprised if we draft a defensive guy in the top 10 should that be where we fall.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, ctk232 said:

It's more likely they go BPA with their first pick, whether that be defense or offense, based upon Beane's last public comments regarding FA and the draft. It was posted in another thread that I'll need to track down, but if it isn't smoke and mirrors, it appears Beane would like to address as many needs (primarily offense based as they fall) through FA so they aren't shackled by needs come draft time, and can pick BPA per his preference. That being said, I wouldn't discount Beane entertaining trading back in the first and accumulating more picks, but don't be surprised if we draft a defensive guy in the top 10 should that be where we fall.

 

That's what I'm saying I want the team to avoid...by winning.

 

[jr1]

thanks Josh

[cba fan]

4 minutes ago, KW95 said:

 

I guess I've been Jaded for decades.

 

I just dont see any boost of any kind whether we beat the Pats or not next week.  And let's be honest.  We wont win.

 

Happy Holidays!

I normally am on board for late season draft postion "posturing". That yr Bills started with the 31-0 win and then lost at end of season was perfect. They started season with hope and had a signature win and later when season went south they lost a meaningless game at end of season. Win win, right? I of course still, and will always, want Bills to beat down Pats whenever possible.

 

This year is different as Bills are developing a potential franchise QB and a lot of young guys also.

 

I don't se any boost in losing to Pats in a normal Bills beat down. I see confidence building in Allen and a win over Bills greatest nemesis would help him. JMO

 

Happy Holidays to you as well.

[ctk232]

5 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

That's what I'm saying I want the team to avoid...by winning.

 

Oh I know, but even so it's still likely he still goes BPA (defense or offense) even if we win those two games. While our offense is clearly of greater need, there are still pieces to fill in on the defensive side of the ball in the secondary and along the line, maybe even LB depth given that Edmunds and Milano are likely to miss more time in the future with concussions/injuries. Not that the latter would be worth the first round pick, more so the DL and Secondary with BPA.

 

 Depends on a lot, but I wonder where two wins would land us in the order - even middle to late first might be reaching for a receiver or OL if Little and Williams are already off the board by the time we pick.

Edited December 17, 2018 by ctk232

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, ctk232 said:

Oh I know, but even so it's still likely he still goes BPA (defense or offense) even if we win those two games. While our offense is clearly of greater need, there are still pieces to fill in on the defensive side of the ball in the secondary and along the line, maybe even LB depth given that Edmunds and Milano are likely to miss more time in the future with concussions/injuries.

 

 Depends on a lot, but I wonder where two wins would land us in the order - even middle to late first might be reaching for a receiver or OL if Little and Williams are already off the board by the time we pick.

 

I mean, we're already at 10, so I'd guess maybe 15 or so?

 

[section122]

3 hours ago, PaattMaann said:

 

I might not remember those wins, but Josh Allen and company will. Believe that. Winnings breeds winning. Confidence breeds confidence. Don't care about draft position. Can trade up, can trade down, can stand pat. Doesn't matter. You play to win the game. 

 

The bolded is something that I feel strongly about.  Once the organization isn't trying to win it seeps into everything.  Turnarounds can't happen with the same crew that led the tank.  The Browns needed to move on from their GM and HC, even the 76ers in basketball had to do the same thing and that is a sport where tanking works.  The most important thing for 2018 is Josh Allen continuing to progress.  Wins are better than loses draft pick be damned if the wins come from Josh playing better, more consistent, etc.

[LABILLBACKER]

3 hours ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

In most years, I'd agree with you on this. But this year, in which most of the first round talent is defensive, it would suit OUR team best to pick later.

 

Or have a higher pick to trade down with. Teams in need of a quality defensive player are not interested in a 10-12 pick. We need to trade down.

[transplantbillsfan]

Who cares?