Bills fall from 6th to 10th in Draft Order

[Like A Mofo]

To me, once a franchise believes they have found a QB to build with for the future, tanking is not as important. If you don't think what you saw from Josh Allen yesterday and the reactions of the players and coaches are important to build a winning team and culture for this team, then you need to look closer. What is important going forward is not where the Bills are picking, it is who they are picking.

 

Beane was ultimately going to be judged on two events:

 

1. What QB he selects to be 'the guy'

 

2. The 2019 offseason with oodles of cap space and picks.

 

#2 on the way.

[T master]

38 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

Bills most likely scenario is they finish 6-10 losing to the Pats on the road and beating Miami at home...

 

That probably will keep us in the top 10 but if we lose both that would be ideal, especially if we have good offensive showings in both games.

 

It would be nice but i don't see them winning either of their last 2 games ? The Pats are pissed & have had our number for years & the Fins are playing really good or at least it seems that way .

 

I hope they prove me wrong but it wouldn't hurt my feelings seeing as the rest of this season is to see what we have on the roster as keepers a top 5 draft pick would be a nice consolation prize to get our starting LT of the future !! 

[Like A Mofo]

2 minutes ago, racketmaster said:

When you have what appears to be your franchise qb, draft position is not nearly as important. For the past 15 years or so, it seems that being near the top for a qb or an elite talent was necessary in order to give hope for the next year. But with Allen looking like the answer, he already gives us hope for next year. And with the scouting staff seemingly being able to identify talent in the later rounds or on the street, it also gives you confidence that dropping down a few slots is not going to matter as much. Too many times in the past I have wanted the Bills to lose games at the end of the season to gain draft position. This year and of course last year have been different. I just want to see the young guys like Allen, Foster, McKenzie, Edmunds etc. keep building and having success. That is much more important that losing a few draft slots. Having a franchise qb completely changes the mentality surrounding the draft and it feels great to finally have that feeling.

 

Just read this and realized we had the same point in the beginning. Great post

[HuSeYiN_NYC]

My take on the whole draft position is

 

1. I can NEVER root for a Bills loss

2. The season will play out the way it's supposed to and we have no control as fans so sit back and enjoy watching your team play (and hopefully win)

3. Though picking earlier in the draft may give you a better chance at landing a better prospect, playing good and winning on Sundays gives you a better chance at bringing in free agents (who actually have stats in the NFL instead of an unknown rookie)

4. If somehow we draft top 5, I'm all for trading down and stockpiling picks but if we draft closer to 10, I say just sit tight and draft your guy.

[WhyteDwarf]

Just now, HuSeYiN_NYC said:

3. Though picking earlier in the draft may give you a better chance at landing a better prospect, playing good and winning on Sundays gives you a better chance at bringing in free agents (who actually have stats in the NFL instead of an unknown rookie)

 

I disagree with that.  It's far better to build a team through the draft.

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Who's trading up for a defender?

 

 

The Saints did it just last year. It would have to be a similarly "high ceiling" pass rusher. There are a few in this class, but the difference is this is a deep pass rush group. Last year's was a shallow group which might have created a sense of urgency for the Saints in getting their guy.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

The Saints did it just last year. It would have to be a similarly "high ceiling" pass rusher. There are a few in this class, but the difference is this is a deep pass rush group. Last year's was a shallow group which might have created a sense of urgency for the Saints in getting their guy.

 

I'd be interested in seeing data, but that strikes me as more of an aberration than a norm.

 

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Joe in Winslow said:

 

I'd be interested in seeing data, but that strikes me as more of an aberration than a norm.

 

 

Oh it is certainly out of the ordinary. The Dolphins moved up to #3 for a pass rusher in 2013 (the busting Dion Jordan) can't immediately recall any others in recent years where people have made major move ups in the first round to take a pass rusher.

[jjmac]

43 minutes ago, Wo-Bah said:

I am not interested in losing, only progressing.

 

Progressing or processing?

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Oh it is certainly out of the ordinary. The Dolphins moved up to #3 for a pass rusher in 2013 (the busting Dion Jordan) can't immediately recall any others in recent years where people have made major move ups in the first round to take a pass rusher.

 

Kind of exactly my point. I'd like to see a 7-9 finish for this team. That, my fine bangers-n-mash eating friend, would be nothing short of miraculous given how the season started.

 

Edited December 17, 2018 by Joe in Winslow

[Chuck Wagon]

The loss in draft position vastly outweighs any gains of moral from a victory.  If Prater makes a FG at the end of the game, do our guys loaf more in work outs through the offseason?  There's tangible losses in the quality of player from these meaningless wins. 

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Kind of exactly my point. I'd like to see a 7-9 finish for that team. That, my fine bangers-n-mash eating friend, would be nothing short of miraculous given how the season started.

 

 

To me the last two results matter much less than the last two performances. If we see more play from Josh Allen the likes of which we saw yesterday (especially 1st half) then two wins and draft 13th or two defeats and draft 6 it doesn't really matter to me. Results are about 2019 and beyond. I'm not hoping for them to lose, but if I see Allen play two more good games and the Bills still lose that will not worry me. I actually want New England to score on us a bit next week. I want to see Allen in a "keep pace" type game. IT will be valuable experience for him (and for Daboll calling plays for him). How did you still press without over pressing?

[Just Joshin']

Part of the development of Allen is growing leadership, winning and gaining confidence  - his and teammates.  That is worth a few draft spots IMO.

[dubs]

At this point any difference in draft position will be small. Most important thing I want to see is continued improvement from our young guys on O and QB and a defense that’s got mostly everyone under contract next year. If that means they win out and draft 14th because they went 7-9 rather than 9th because they go 6-10, so be it. 

[Johnny Hammersticks]

Just now, Just Joshin' said:

Part of the development of Allen is growing leadership, winning and gaining confidence  - his and teammates.  That is worth a few draft spots IMO.

 

Allen is the only reason I’m not completely in favor of tank mode.  

[mannc]

38 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Who's trading up for a defender?

 

There were 10 trade ups in the first round last year, including several for defenders.  Does the name Tremaine Edwards mean anything to you?

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, mannc said:

There were 10 trade ups in the first round last year, including several for defenders.  Does the name Tremaine Edwards mean anything to you?

 

to the top 10?

 

do better.

 

[Watkins90]

Even at six, we could trade back if someone really wants a great defensive player. 

[mannc]

1 minute ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

to the top 10?

 

do better.

 

Your post said nothing about top 10.  Nice try.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, mannc said:

Your post said nothing about top 10.  Nice try.

 

 

 

[blacklabel]

Even if they finished 5-11 and had the 6th or 7th overall pick, do you really think Beane is gonna stand pat right there? No way. Too many needs right now. I'm pretty sure he'll wanna trade down to collect some more picks, especially if they're targeting a specific offensive player because right now, of the top 15 players, like... 12 of them are on defense. Not that I'd mind them adding a defensive player, but I think it just makes more sense for them to try to add more picks and find the best value they can when they pick.

[Clemfield2622]

2 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

to the top 10?

 

do better.

 

Chicago 2016 Leonard Floyd

Cleveland 2014 Justin Gilbert

Miami 2013 Dion Jordan

Dallas 2012 Morris Claiborne

 

Is it common, no. Are we asking for a ridiculously specific example, yes.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

2 minutes ago, Clemfield2622 said:

Chicago 2016 Leonard Floyd

Cleveland 2014 Justin Gilbert

Miami 2013 Dion Jordan

Dallas 2012 Morris Claiborne

 

Is it common, no. Are we asking for a ridiculously specific example, yes.

Well, that's kind of my point.

 

It would take a RIDICULOUSLY SPECIFIC set of circumstances for a team to trade up into the top 10 for a defender. I'd rather take the better record, and have them NOT reach for an offensive player or even worse, take a defender.

 

[BuffaloHokie13]

15 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

I'd be interested in seeing data, but that strikes me as more of an aberration than a norm.

in 2018 the Saints gave up pick 27, pick 147, and a 2019 first to move to pick 14 and take Marcus Davenport.

in 2017 the Falcons gave up pick 31, pick 95, and pick 249 to move to pick 26 for Takkarist McKinley

in 2016 the Bears gave up pick 11 and pick 106 to move to pick 9 for Leonard Floyd

in 2015 the Broncos gave up pick 28, pick 143, a 2016 5th, and a Guard to move to pick 23 for Shane Ray

in 2013 the Dolphins gave up pick 12 and pick 42 to move to pick 3 for Dion Jordan

in 2012 the Eagles gave up pick 15, pick 114, and pick 172 to move to pick 12 for Fletcher Cox

 

There's been about 1 trade up a year for a pass rusher, but usually not in the top 10.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, BuffaloHokie13 said:

in 2018 the Saints gave up pick 27, pick 147, and a 2019 first to move to pick 14 and take Marcus Davenport.

in 2017 the Falcons gave up pick 31, pick 95, and pick 249 to move to pick 26 for Takkarist McKinley

in 2016 the Bears gave up pick 11 and pick 106 to move to pick 9 for Leonard Floyd

in 2015 the Broncos gave up pick 28, pick 143, a 2016 5th, and a Guard to move to pick 23 for Shane Ray

in 2013 the Dolphins gave up pick 12 and pick 42 to move to pick 3 for Dion Jordan

in 2012 the Eagles gave up pick 15, pick 114, and pick 172 to move to pick 12 for Fletcher Cox

 

There's been about 1 trade up a year for a pass rusher, but usually not in the top 10.

 

Follow up question: in any of those circumstances, do you feel the trade up was worth it for the drafted player?

 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

in 2018 the Saints gave up pick 27, pick 147, and a 2019 first to move to pick 14 and take Marcus Davenport.

in 2017 the Falcons gave up pick 31, pick 95, and pick 249 to move to pick 26 for Takkarist McKinley

in 2016 the Bears gave up pick 11 and pick 106 to move to pick 9 for Leonard Floyd

in 2015 the Broncos gave up pick 28, pick 143, a 2016 5th, and a Guard to move to pick 23 for Shane Ray

in 2013 the Dolphins gave up pick 12 and pick 42 to move to pick 3 for Dion Jordan

in 2012 the Eagles gave up pick 15, pick 114, and pick 172 to move to pick 12 for Fletcher Cox

 

There's been about 1 trade up a year for a pass rusher, but usually not in the top 10.

 

Thanks BH. Your memory is sharper than mine. The Falcons gave an extraordinary price to get from 31 to 26 for McKinley!!!

Just now, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Follow up question: in any of those circumstances, do you feel the trade up was worth it for the drafted player?

 

 

Fletcher Cox has been worth it about three times over.

Floyd has too for a reasonably small trade up price.

I think Davenport will be really good.... he is an incomplete at this stage but it was a big price.

 

Jordan, Ray, McKinley - no.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Thanks BH. Your memory is sharper than mine. The Falcons gave an extraordinary price to get from 31 to 26 for McKinley!!!

 

Fletcher Cox has been worth it about three times over.

Floyd has too for a reasonably small trade up price.

I think Davenport will be really good.... he is an incomplete at this stage but it was a big price.

 

Jordan, Ray, McKinley - no.

 

So, follow up question to the follow up question:

 

If YOU were a GM, would you trade up for a defensive player?

 

[Clemfield2622]

4 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Follow up question: in any of those circumstances, do you feel the trade up was worth it for the drafted player?

 

Do you think that will stop teams from doing it? McBeane has traded up 4 times in 2 drafts. 

 

They gave up a 5,3,2,2,3 for Zay, Dawkins, Allen and Edmunds. That's 4 potential guys who would likely be contributing. The Allen deal "had to" be done. The others didn't. They traded up because they thought those guys were better than other guys they could have gotten in their original spots. 

 

Draft picks are lottery tickets, and GM's will always treat them as such. Sometimes you'd rather have more tickets, and sometimes you will trade extra tickets for a guy you feel is a sure winner.

 

That will never stop.  

Edited December 17, 2018 by Clemfield2622

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Joe in Winslow said:

 

So, follow up question to the follow up question:

 

If YOU were a GM, would you trade up for a defensive player?

 

 

For a pass rusher, yes I would. But you have to get it right. I'd trade up for a pass rusher before I'd trade up for a wide receiver quite honestly.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, Clemfield2622 said:

Do you think that will stop teams from doing it? McBeane has traded up 4 times in 2 drafts. 

 

They gave up a 5,3,2,2,3 for Zay, Dawkins, Allen and Edmunds. That's 4 guys who would likely be contributing. The Allen deal "had to" be done. The others didn't. They traded up because they thought those guys were better than other guys they could have gotten in their original spots. 

 

Draft picks are lottery tickets, and GM's will always treat them as such. Sometimes you'd rather have more tickets, and sometimes you will trade extra tickets for a guy you feel is a sure winner.

 

That will never stop.  

 

Well, all things being equal, I'd rather not live with the risk of a reach for an offensive player or the drafting of a defender.

 

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

For a pass rusher, yes I would. But you have to get it right. I'd trade up for a pass rusher before I'd trade up for a wide receiver quite honestly.

 

Fair enough.

 

[GunnerBill]

Obviously I am not saying the Bills should trade up for a pass rusher in this draft.... though I do think we need to draft one early this year. First three rounds. Our only two credible pass rushers on this team are a combined age of 67.

Edited December 17, 2018 by GunnerBill

[BuffaloHokie13]

7 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

Follow up question: in any of those circumstances, do you feel the trade up was worth it for the drafted player?

Fletcher Cox is aboslutely worth it. I also like Leonard Floyd, though he's had a slower start than I expected. Too early to consider the most recent 2, so for me it's 50/50 as far as results.

[Johnny Hammersticks]

Adding a player like Greedy Williams or Josh Allen in the first round would not be a terrible thing.  I don’t know why some folks are so rock-headed about only drafting offense in the first round.  BPA with that first pick.

[Bob in STL]

There are plenty of good players to pick in the draft.  The losing has to stop.

 

I want to beat the Pats* in their shithole stadium and then I want to beat Miami at home for our fans.  Let's finish on a win streak - 7-9 in a rebuild year and 3-3 in the division.  Keep Josh Allen's progress going.

 

Time to stop the losing mentality. 

 

 

[Clemfield2622]

4 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Well, all things being equal, I'd rather not live with the risk of a reach for an offensive player or the drafting of a defender.

 

Beane has already stated he is BPA. They will not reach for need.

 

As unpopular as it may be, if a defender is the top player on the board, they're taking a defender. That's where trading down factors in. If they have 3-4 guys rated the same and can trade down, add assets and still get a guy they like at say 16 as they would at 10, that's a win-win.

 

This is not a year where the draft prospects align with our needs. My desire to be at the top of the board is purely for trade down reasons. Would you rather finish 6-10 and pick 14 , or have finished 4-12, and pick 4th? And then theoretically trade down 1 or 2 times to 14 and add 3 or 4 more assets? That's how you fill the holes in the roster.

Edited December 17, 2018 by Clemfield2622

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, Clemfield2622 said:

theoretically

 

Key word there. Takes two to tango. Four if you're talking two trade downs.

 

 

[CLTbills]

1 hour ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

This is going to seem contrarian, especially coming from me....but I disagree. Why?

 

The Bills need OFFENSIVE help in the draft, and from what I've read/heard just about everyone in the top 10 is a defensive star. So rather than have them reach, I'd like to see them drop to take O help.

 

I agree 100%. I guess the thinking is, if you had a higher pick you could then trade down and gain additional picks... but at the end of the day... just win baby. The difference between drafting 6th and 15th is not the difference between going 12-4 and 4-12 next year. If it is, we’ve got bigger problems. 

[NoHuddleKelly12]

I don’t care about draft position right now. I do care about establishing a winning culture, JA’s confidence (and by extension, that of his young wideouts), and momentum to flash for potential established FA’s so maybe the overpayments aren’t as bad. For the draft, it’s a highly speculative science even in the best of slots (just ask the Brownies over the past decade until finally hitting the lotto this year) and I have a feeling we won’t stay pat wherever we end up regardless. Too many unknowns right now to worry about. Just win baby!!

[Clemfield2622]

1 minute ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Key word there. Takes two to tango. Four if you're talking two trade downs.

 

 

Yep. 

 

Again, it was for QB's, so it was different, but look at last year. The Colts added 2 2nd's and went from 3 to 6

 

The Bills traded 2 2nd's to go from 12 to 7.

 

So THEORETICALLY, a team like the Colts could have gone from 3 to 12 and added 4 2nd round picks. Obviously they chose not to and added Nelson, and they have been much improved. But the ability to do it was there. There is really no better chance to stock your cupboards than to be picking high and know you DON'T need a QB. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

2 minutes ago, Clemfield2622 said:

Yep. 

 

Again, it was for QB's, so it was different, but look at last year. The Colts added 2 2nd's and went from 3 to 6

 

The Bills traded 2 2nd's to go from 12 to 7.

 

So THEORETICALLY, a team like the Colts could have gone from 3 to 12 and added 4 2nd round picks. Obviously they chose not to and added Nelson, and they have been much improved. But the ability to do it was there. There is really no better chance to stock your cupboards than to be picking high and know you DON'T need a QB. 

 

And which QB is going to have teams giving up that kind of bounty? and Qhich teams are going to be looking for a QB?

Because REALLY that's where the big "trade-down" bounties are manufactured, as you said.

 

Edited December 17, 2018 by Joe in Winslow