Kubiak’s QB evaluation

[WIDE LEFT]

So Kubiak, who writes for the News specifically on QB performance, characterizes Peterman’s performance v Bears as “solid”. Um, that’s a joke. What QB ever produced a 32.5 rating and had that characterized as solid performance. He blames the receiver for the first interception, and there is some truth to that, but did you note how long the ball took to get there? Receiver went from wide open to partially covered/contested because DB closed on a weak throw. I could have timed that throw with an hour glass.

 

Interception #2 he blames on Croom not rubbing the DB off.  But Zay Jones was basically at the line of scrimmage, and the throw was behind him. That’s about a short a throw as you can make, but QB is unable to deliver it accurately. Weak arm + accuracy issues does not an NFL QB make.

 

He went on to praise Peterman for checking down. Well he is the first QB in NFL history to complete 31 passes for less than 200 yards. That’s pitiful.

 

I have enjoyed Kubiaks QB articles previously, but he is so far wrong here that I really have to question his expertise in this area. I can’t figure out what was worse, Peterman’s performance or Kubiak’s evaluation of that performance 

 

 

[Mr. WEO]

you don't say......

[Soda Popinski]

yes yes praise the checkdown....

[BillsFan130]

You know things are bad in Buffalo when a guy gets praised for having a 32 passer rating and sets the record (I believe) for having 31 completions and still throwing for under 200 yards

[Billsfan1972]

Yep that's certainly solid!!!!

 

Yep and putting up big yards down 28+ points.  They did get it to 28-3 and you could feel the momentum changing.

 

The bar is so low.

[BuffaloHokie13]

 

[uticaclub]

This isn’t going to get subscribers. There’s got to an in between from Sully to this sunshine and rainbows. Or maybe Sully was right

[Best Player Available]

42 minutes ago, uticaclub said:

This isn’t going to get subscribers. There’s got to an in between from Sully to this sunshine and rainbows. Or maybe Sully was right

Yes, the snooze cannot find any balance period in their reporting.Feels like amateurs over there. 

Probably wouldn't read that rag if it was free. So many other choices that are free. 

[HT02]

Peterman wasn't awful but you certainly couldn't describe him as productive either. 

 

Most of the interceptions weren't his fault but he didn't make many productive plays either and his decision to scramble on the last play of the first half was just plain stupid.  I have been someone who has defended Peterman but I find it harder to do so after each of his performances.

[Irv]

I also thought Peterman used the check down well.  Solid performance. 

 

Yours,

Trent Edwards

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

you don't say......

 

...should we bring him in??........

[US Egg]

1 hour ago, uticaclub said:

maybe Sully was right

[JoshBarnett]

Feel like the need to jump in ... I am not sure how many of the posters have read the entirety of Jim's piece. 

 

As Jim has explained since he began doing this, he evaluates the quarterback based solely on the responsibilities of the quarterback on a per play basis. Isolating only on the quarterback, did the quarterback do his job? He grades each play with a plus or a minus. His grade for Peterman in the game based solely on those plays was 89 percent in looking at 81 plays. As he has explained, is the ball on time? Is the ball in the right place? 

 

He also writes that Peterman got no help from his supporting cast and the pressure is immense on any Bills quarterback because of that. Most analysts agree that at least two of the interceptions Sunday were not his fault. 

 

Jim writes: "The objective truth is that Peterman should not be expected to go out and win games for Buffalo on his own. His job is to manage the situations, read the coverage and deliver the football where it is supposed to go, when it is supposed to be there. He cannot control fumbles, deflections, missed assignments, or lack of execution in one-on-one situations. Peterman, or any quarterback for that matter, can only control his decisions and his execution on each given play."

 

If you have read each of the now 13 pieces that Jim has written, it's not sunshine and rainbows. He breaks down each play based on the quarterback's job on the play and then writes what he sees. Go back and look at his percentages for other games: 

 

Vs. Houston: 76 percent

Vs. Packers: 68 percent

Vs. Chargers: 72 percent

 

It's a results driven league, and the results are not there for the Bills as a team. We have written that over and over. We also have written about Peterman's deficiencies over and over. What Jim does is what I outlined above. 

 

 

[billsredneck1]

my question(s) is/are: were there receivers running intermediate/deep patterns?...and if so, how tight was the coverage and how much time was there before the ball had to come out?

 

how many of these short throws were by design?...and play calling. i get hammering on someone that checks down when he has time and guys running open, but how much of this was the case? i don't have the all 22 etc. and i was so mad at the play calling that i was drinking...well quickly?

 

any way, just start nate against the jets and see if there's any chance he can up his game or improve upon last week. go into the bye and get josh ready.

as far as the bye, i'm predicting bye 28  bills 0. i'm sure we will go into the bye week as underdogs.

 

man our receivers sans zay really suck. that being said...vs. the jets put sidestep and ivory in the backfield and either handoff or pass alternatively. there' 4 plays to run nonstop.

on 2nd and shorts send 3 wrs intermediate and deep and take a shot.

 

 

[US Egg]

4 minutes ago, JoshBarnett said:

Peterman got no help from his supporting cast and the pressure is immense on any Bills quarterback because of that.

Peterman, and anyone else who plays for the McBeanester's response to this analysis should be:

.....and if they continue to play for the McBeanster: 

(if you know your comedies, you don't need to hear these) 

[WIDE LEFT]

34 minutes ago, JoshBarnett said:

Feel like the need to jump in ... I am not sure how many of the posters have read the entirety of Jim's piece. 

 

As Jim has explained since he began doing this, he evaluates the quarterback based solely on the responsibilities of the quarterback on a per play basis. Isolating only on the quarterback, did the quarterback do his job? He grades each play with a plus or a minus. His grade for Peterman in the game based solely on those plays was 89 percent in looking at 81 plays. As he has explained, is the ball on time? Is the ball in the right place? 

 

He also writes that Peterman got no help from his supporting cast and the pressure is immense on any Bills quarterback because of that. Most analysts agree that at least two of the interceptions Sunday were not his fault. 

 

Jim writes: "The objective truth is that Peterman should not be expected to go out and win games for Buffalo on his own. His job is to manage the situations, read the coverage and deliver the football where it is supposed to go, when it is supposed to be there. He cannot control fumbles, deflections, missed assignments, or lack of execution in one-on-one situations. Peterman, or any quarterback for that matter, can only control his decisions and his execution on each given play."

 

If you have read each of the now 13 pieces that Jim has written, it's not sunshine and rainbows. He breaks down each play based on the quarterback's job on the play and then writes what he sees. Go back and look at his percentages for other games: 

 

Vs. Houston: 76 percent

Vs. Packers: 68 percent

Vs. Chargers: 72 percent

 

It's a results driven league, and the results are not there for the Bills as a team. We have written that over and over. We also have written about Peterman's deficiencies over and over. What Jim does is what I outlined above. 

 

 

“Is the ball on time” “Is the ball in the right place” - Well the first interception,  although it could have been caught, was certainly not on time. Receiver was open, but the throw was late ( due to lack of velocity) allowing the DB to contest. Second interception- how does anybody characterize that throw as a “ball in the right place” ?  Zay Jones was at the line of scrimmage, a very short throw, and the ball was well behind him. As far as “manage the situation”, I note that Kubiak never mentions the decision to attempt a 50 yard scramble at the end of first half, rather than throw a Hail Mary.  I don’t believe the Bills game plan was to have their average pass attempt be less than 3 yards, an NFL record low. That was Peterman’s decision.   As I stated, I have enjoyed some of Kubiak’s previous articles, but he his way off on this one and your explanation of why he characterizes this performance as productive just doesn’t cut it. It was historically unproductive 

[Mrbojanglezs]

there is probably noone open downfield

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

The majority of Bills fans are immune to this sort of dribble.

 

We've seen attempts at rationalizing bad QB play as ‘not actually as bad as it looks’ for two decades.

 

Yes it was that bad. Under 4 YPA and 3 ints are incompetent QB play. 

 

Its as foul as the ?  in section 122. 

[Jauronimo]

21 minutes ago, Mrbojanglezs said:

there is probably noone open downfield

The stats show there has never been anyone open downfield when Peterman is in the game.  Its remarkable.  Career yards per attempt is under 4.

[MJS]

I'll take his analysis over yours.

[Billsfan1972]

1 hour ago, JoshBarnett said:

Feel like the need to jump in ... I am not sure how many of the posters have read the entirety of Jim's piece. 

 

As Jim has explained since he began doing this, he evaluates the quarterback based solely on the responsibilities of the quarterback on a per play basis. Isolating only on the quarterback, did the quarterback do his job? He grades each play with a plus or a minus. His grade for Peterman in the game based solely on those plays was 89 percent in looking at 81 plays. As he has explained, is the ball on time? Is the ball in the right place? 

 

You can't be serious that he made the the right decision 72 of 81 plays (81 x .89)?  

 

Interested in the 9 bad decisions?  Do bad throws count (or just that her made the decision, regardless of a `good throw or not)?

 

Heck I remember Allen being criticized for making the right decision and completing a pass downfield if it did not hit the receiver in the #'s. 

 

Peterman is a genius doing that with no help.  

 

That is as stupid a column as could be written.

[blacklabel]

Maybe he meant "solid" as in, he played within the game plan? I mean, Peterman knows the playbook, he knows where the ball is intended to go on any given passing situation, he's a smart enough guy to call out the correct protections most of the time and he has shown the ability to throw quickly and on time. Those are all solid QB traits. Where Peterman falls short is his arm strength and his confidence once a bad play happens. That attempt to scramble to the end zone instead of throwing the Hail Mary? That's him being too afraid of having the ball picked off again and having something bad happen. But the likelihood of a defender intercepting a Hail Mary and taking it 100 yards the other way is slim, so he should've just thrown it up there and hoped for the best, but he didn't even have the confidence to try it at that point.

 

After those two interceptions his confidence was shot. I won't fault him for the one to Pryor. It was a poorly placed ball but it was still catchable and if you're a professional WR and you get your hands on the ball, you have to make that catch. The one that bounced off Zay was a really flukey kinda play, but the ball placement didn't help. It was low and away, Zay had to stop, turn and try to get low to catch it, gets smacked by a DB at the same time, ball hits him in the arm and takes a weird bounce to Floyd who walks in for the TD. Those types of plays can knock the wind out of the sails for any player. He's honestly had some of the worst luck I've ever seen for any QB. When these things happen, it has to mess with you mentally. He has to be thinking, "What else can I do? What else DO I do?!" and when he hits that point he starts getting reckless with the ball, makes bad decisions and throws picks all by himself (meaning, no deflections or weird bounces). 

 

With a better supporting cast and an established offensive identity, sure, Nate Peterman is a decent backup quarterback. He's a fifth round pick with a definite "game manager" style of play so in a better environment he would probably be capable of coming in and holding down the fort for a couple of games. But only if the team had a good run game to lean on or some elite offensive playmakers they could scheme for. But they don't have any of that so Peterman just looks like straight caca. 

 

He's a good kid. I'm sure he works hard. I'm certain no one feels as bad as he does about all of this. But at this point, I just can't see how you can keep him on the team. Bad things happen when he's on the field. At least with Allen, if the play breaks down, the kid has the ability to try and make something happen. Nate doesn't have that luxury. For him to succeed, things need to go as planned and he needs a very strong supporting cast because he is not the type of QB to elevate the play of his teammates. 

 

If I'm McBeane, I'm looking for a more capable backup in free agency and the draft. Both. Bring in a veteran via free agency (unless Anderson decides he'd like to stay, I'm alright with him being the mentor-type for Allen, he helped Cam a lot) and grab a QB prospect in the mid-rounds. 

 

I'm all in on the process. I'm all in on Allen. I'm all in on Beane and McDermott. That's not to say they don't deserve criticism. They definitely botched the handling of the QB position this season. A 3-man QB competition is never a good idea. Going into the season without a veteran backup is also not a good idea. Trial and error, though. Gotta allow these guys room to make mistakes so they can learn from them. Hopefully what they've experienced this season will motivate them to handle the QB spot much differently in 2019... and to me, that means, Josh Allen is your unquestioned #1... Derek Anderson or another veteran that can be a solid mentor to Allen is your #2... and your #3 is maybe a mid-round rookie or Matt Barkley, he at least has some starting experience, hasn't had the crazy debacles like Peterman and could hold it down with a strong supporting cast... lastly... Nate Peterman receives his pink slip. Thanks for playing, Nate, but... if it were me, I just wouldn't be able to find any decent reason to bring him back. I'd cut him loose and wish him the best and hope maybe he can go somewhere and get a fresh start.

Edited November 7, 2018 by blacklabel

[Rochesterfan]

59 minutes ago, WIDE LEFT said:

“Is the ball on time” “Is the ball in the right place” - Well the first interception,  although it could have been caught, was certainly not on time. Receiver was open, but the throw was late ( due to lack of velocity) allowing the DB to contest. Second interception- how does anybody characterize that throw as a “ball in the right place” ?  Zay Jones was at the line of scrimmage, a very short throw, and the ball was well behind him. As far as “manage the situation”, I note that Kubiak never mentions the decision to attempt a 50 yard scramble at the end of first half, rather than throw a Hail Mary.  I don’t believe the Bills game plan was to have their average pass attempt be less than 3 yards, an NFL record low. That was Peterman’s decision.   As I stated, I have enjoyed some of Kubiak’s previous articles, but he his way off on this one and your explanation of why he characterizes this performance as productive just doesn’t cut it. It was historically unproductive 

 

The throw was behind Zay because of the defender.  If he threw in front of Zay it is right to the defensive player.  As it was the defensive player hit Zay well before the ball got there.

 

Therefore either Croom needed to do a better job of shielding Jones on the throw - or based upon the defense Zay needed to settle down to allow the back shoulder throw and turn it up field to get the first.

 

There is no overall defense of Peterman - it was a bad performance, but if you watch around the league - there are throws that get caught by other WRs that bail out the QB and here the WR seems to bat that ball up for an Int.  Some is on the QB, but the WRs/TEs do not help.

 

[WIDE LEFT]

2 hours ago, MJS said:

I'll take his analysis over yours.

Of course you will. Because every NFL expert would agree with you that a QB with a 32.5 QB rating, 3 interceptions, an historical NFL record low of 3 yards per pass attempt and a idiotic decision to try to scramble for 50 yards at the end of a half instead of throwing a Hail Mary had a very productive day. That’s your analysis genius. Most would differ. Almost all would differ. Peterman might even differ

[MJS]

9 hours ago, WIDE LEFT said:

Of course you will. Because every NFL expert would agree with you that a QB with a 32.5 QB rating, 3 interceptions, an historical NFL record low of 3 yards per pass attempt and a idiotic decision to try to scramble for 50 yards at the end of a half instead of throwing a Hail Mary had a very productive day. That’s your analysis genius. Most would differ. Almost all would differ. Peterman might even differ

 

Did I say that? Nope. I said I would trust an expert's opinion over your useless, jaded, biased, and insignificant opinion. If you can't accept that, I really don't care.

[GunnerBill]

13 hours ago, WIDE LEFT said:

“Is the ball on time” “Is the ball in the right place” - Well the first interception,  although it could have been caught, was certainly not on time. Receiver was open, but the throw was late ( due to lack of velocity) allowing the DB to contest. Second interception- how does anybody characterize that throw as a “ball in the right place” ?  Zay Jones was at the line of scrimmage, a very short throw, and the ball was well behind him. As far as “manage the situation”, I note that Kubiak never mentions the decision to attempt a 50 yard scramble at the end of first half, rather than throw a Hail Mary.  I don’t believe the Bills game plan was to have their average pass attempt be less than 3 yards, an NFL record low. That was Peterman’s decision.   As I stated, I have enjoyed some of Kubiak’s previous articles, but he his way off on this one and your explanation of why he characterizes this performance as productive just doesn’t cut it. It was historically unproductive 

 

Correct. 

 

Sorry to diss "Jim" but anyone who thinks the throw on the 2nd interception was accurate knows nothing about football and should be ignored. It was at least 2 feet behind a receiver running an in breaking route despite being a throw of less than 10 yards. 

[That_Guy]

haha Croom didn't rub a guy off

[WIDE LEFT]

Gee if Kubiak is correct and Peterman’s performance against the  Bears was “productive”, it’s awfully curious that the Bills intend to start Matt Barkley over him. Barkley’s been on the team for all of ten days, and doesn’t exactly have much of a resume of success in the NFL. But I guess the Bills coaching staff reviewed film of the Bears game many times, and judged that Peterman’s performance was anything but productive 

[Ga boy]

On ‎11‎/‎7‎/‎2018 at 1:42 PM, blacklabel said:

Maybe he meant "solid" as in, he played within the game plan? I mean, Peterman knows the playbook, he knows where the ball is intended to go on any given passing situation, he's a smart enough guy to call out the correct protections most of the time and he has shown the ability to throw quickly and on time. Those are all solid QB traits. Where Peterman falls short is his arm strength and his confidence once a bad play happens. That attempt to scramble to the end zone instead of throwing the Hail Mary? That's him being too afraid of having the ball picked off again and having something bad happen. But the likelihood of a defender intercepting a Hail Mary and taking it 100 yards the other way is slim, so he should've just thrown it up there and hoped for the best, but he didn't even have the confidence to try it at that point.

 

After those two interceptions his confidence was shot. I won't fault him for the one to Pryor. It was a poorly placed ball but it was still catchable and if you're a professional WR and you get your hands on the ball, you have to make that catch. The one that bounced off Zay was a really flukey kinda play, but the ball placement didn't help. It was low and away, Zay had to stop, turn and try to get low to catch it, gets smacked by a DB at the same time, ball hits him in the arm and takes a weird bounce to Floyd who walks in for the TD. Those types of plays can knock the wind out of the sails for any player. He's honestly had some of the worst luck I've ever seen for any QB. When these things happen, it has to mess with you mentally. He has to be thinking, "What else can I do? What else DO I do?!" and when he hits that point he starts getting reckless with the ball, makes bad decisions and throws picks all by himself (meaning, no deflections or weird bounces). 

 

With a better supporting cast and an established offensive identity, sure, Nate Peterman is a decent backup quarterback. He's a fifth round pick with a definite "game manager" style of play so in a better environment he would probably be capable of coming in and holding down the fort for a couple of games. But only if the team had a good run game to lean on or some elite offensive playmakers they could scheme for. But they don't have any of that so Peterman just looks like straight caca. 

 

He's a good kid. I'm sure he works hard. I'm certain no one feels as bad as he does about all of this. But at this point, I just can't see how you can keep him on the team. Bad things happen when he's on the field. At least with Allen, if the play breaks down, the kid has the ability to try and make something happen. Nate doesn't have that luxury. For him to succeed, things need to go as planned and he needs a very strong supporting cast because he is not the type of QB to elevate the play of his teammates. 

 

If I'm McBeane, I'm looking for a more capable backup in free agency and the draft. Both. Bring in a veteran via free agency (unless Anderson decides he'd like to stay, I'm alright with him being the mentor-type for Allen, he helped Cam a lot) and grab a QB prospect in the mid-rounds. 

 

I'm all in on the process. I'm all in on Allen. I'm all in on Beane and McDermott. That's not to say they don't deserve criticism. They definitely botched the handling of the QB position this season. A 3-man QB competition is never a good idea. Going into the season without a veteran backup is also not a good idea. Trial and error, though. Gotta allow these guys room to make mistakes so they can learn from them. Hopefully what they've experienced this season will motivate them to handle the QB spot much differently in 2019... and to me, that means, Josh Allen is your unquestioned #1... Derek Anderson or another veteran that can be a solid mentor to Allen is your #2... and your #3 is maybe a mid-round rookie or Matt Barkley, he at least has some starting experience, hasn't had the crazy debacles like Peterman and could hold it down with a strong supporting cast... lastly... Nate Peterman receives his pink slip. Thanks for playing, Nate, but... if it were me, I just wouldn't be able to find any decent reason to bring him back. I'd cut him loose and wish him the best and hope maybe he can go somewhere and get a fresh start.

With this O line and receiving corps, it is impossible to evaluate either NP or JA.  The first quarter shows that NP can run the offense;  however, a high percentage of the time, NP has been in games (LAC, Balt, Chi) that are jail breaks and he's running for his life.  Not many QBs can impress under these circumstances.  Finally, while NP gets a beat down for his performance in the Bears game, if it was JA, most would say that he played solid.  I say NP made progress in that game, even though the best defense was sending the kitchen sink.  The no hail Mary was a bone-head play.  The rest was pretty good all things considered.

[Billsfan1972]

7 minutes ago, Ga boy said:

With this O line and receiving corps, it is impossible to evaluate either NP or JA.  The first quarter shows that NP can run the offense;  however, a high percentage of the time, NP has been in games (LAC, Balt, Chi) that are jail breaks and he's running for his life.  Not many QBs can impress under these circumstances.  Finally, while NP gets a beat down for his performance in the Bears game, if it was JA, most would say that he played solid.  I say NP made progress in that game, even though the best defense was sending the kitchen sink.  The no hail Mary was a bone-head play.  The rest was pretty good all things considered.

Just stop it please....  

[TigerJ]

Kubiak is not the only observer among media types who thought Peterman did pretty well.