Lofton80 Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 Phil Simms at Morehead St. finished with 409 completions in 835 attempts for a 48.9% completion percentage. Pretty sure he still holds completion percentage record for a Super Bowl game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldmanfan Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 Regarding this topic, and coming from my perspective as a scientist who reviews a lot of papers and has to have a decent knowledge of statistics, study design etc., here are my thoughts, as if I were reviewing a scientific manuscript: 1. You have not defined your measurable - accuracy - well enough. Is accuracy defined as completion percentage? if so, then there are other variables that enter into your choice, such as number of drops by receivers, etc. If you are putting a specific target out there somewhere, and measuring the number of times a QB hits that specific target, then you are measuring accuracy. 2. Are you wanting to measure accuracy or precision? You can be accurate but not precise, and vice versa. 3. Do you have an adequate control group? Not in this case, because the control group seems to be other QBs that have higher completion percentages. But this brings in a host of variables. What is the quality of receivers each team has? What types of throws was each QB making - short passes or screens would be expected to have a higher completion percentage? And so on. So if the analysis people are doing here was submitted to me for review, I would reject the manuscript for publication. And I would encourage the authors to define their terms more clearly, and then design their study appropriately so you actually can support your contention. Namely, put QBs out on a field with randomly spread targets, and ask them to make repeat throws at said target. Allen will sink or swim. Just like all the other QBs drafted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan89 Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 The accuracy numbers on Allen are a huge concern but some of Allen's completion percentage is explained by the nature of his offense (more downfield throws less high completion percentage throws like screens and shovel passes) and the nature of Allen's receivers not being that good. I think the reason he was scouted well despite the completion percentage was these other factors. I still would have preferred Rosen but I don't hate Allen all things considered. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEBills Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 Cutler is similar. Would have been a better QB if not for how he was as a leader. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finn Posted April 27, 2018 Author Share Posted April 27, 2018 29 minutes ago, ColdFront_USAF said: One of his most compared-to players is Cam Newton. Look at Cam's pre-draft stuff, it's quite similar. You'll see things like "big body, huge arm, crazy athletic for his size". You'll also see "needs to work on accuracy, reading defenses, making smart decisions with the ball". I for one am entirely shocked that two guys who coached/learned in Carolina and helped take Cam to a Super Bowl decided to draft a guy frequently compared to him. As for accuracy.. Jordan Palmer said a lot of stuff about it, so I'll just paraphrase rather than parrot him. He said the raw number isn't everything (another shock, I know). The team around him got significantly worse in 2017, as his mostly senior team from 16 all graduated and moved on. Yet, his completion percentage remained the same. It actually shows an improvement when factoring in that he lost a huge amount of his offense. Palmer and Allen both cited footwork issues that resulted in accuracy. That's coachable, to what extent remains to be seen. And the "unable to read a defense" thing, well I'm not sold on that narrative. At the very least, the potential is there, as he has proven to be very smart with the X's and O's. Let's wait and see if he can apply his intelligence to the field. I'm most heartened by this post. Thanks very much. Even if he doesn't pan out, having the model of Cam Newton in mind (instead of C.J. Manuel) at least gives me hope, which is all we Bills fan really need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurker Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 22 minutes ago, TigerJ said: And Dan Marino's And Sammy Baugh's Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD TD% Int Int% Lng Y/A AY/A Y/C Y/G Rate Sk Yds NY/A ANY/A Sk% 4QC GWD AV Career 165 83 11-10-0 1693 2995 56.5 21886 187 6.2 203 6.8 86 7.3 5.5 12.9 132.6 72.2 1 2 1937+ 23 WAS TB 11 5 81 171 47.4 1127 8 4.7 14 8.2 59 6.6 3.8 13.9 102.5 50.5 1938* 24 WAS TB 9 3 63 128 49.2 853 5 3.9 11 8.6 60 6.7 3.6 13.5 94.8 48.1 0 0 1939* 25 WAS tb 9 1 53 96 55.2 518 6 6.3 9 9.4 44 5.4 2.4 9.8 57.6 52.3 0 0 1940*+ 26 WAS TB 11 11 111 177 62.7 1367 12 6.8 10 5.6 81 7.7 6.5 12.3 124.3 85.6 1941* 27 WAS TB 11 1 106 193 54.9 1236 10 5.2 19 9.8 55 6.4 3.0 11.7 112.4 52.2 0 0 1942*+ 28 WAS TB 11 8 132 225 58.7 1524 16 7.1 11 4.9 53 6.8 6.0 11.5 138.5 82.5 1943+ 29 WAS TB 10 7 133 239 55.6 1754 23 9.6 19 7.9 72 7.3 5.7 13.2 175.4 78.0 1944 30 WAS qb 8 4 82 146 56.2 849 4 2.7 8 5.5 71 5.8 3.9 10.4 106.1 59.4 0 0 1945 31 WAS QB 8 8 128 182 70.3 1669 11 6.0 4 2.2 70 9.2 9.4 13.0 208.6 109.9 1946 32 WAS QB 11 2 87 161 54.0 1163 8 5.0 17 10.6 51 7.2 3.5 13.4 105.7 54.2 0 0 1947 33 WAS QB 12 1 210 354 59.3 2938 25 7.1 15 4.2 74 8.3 7.8 14.0 244.8 92.0 0 0 1948 34 WAS QB 12 3 185 315 58.7 2599 22 7.0 23 7.3 86 8.3 6.4 14.0 216.6 78.3 0 0 1949 35 WAS QB 12 8 145 255 56.9 1903 18 7.1 14 5.5 76 7.5 6.4 13.1 158.6 81.2 0 0 1950 36 WAS QB 33 11 7 3-4-0 90 166 54.2 1130 10 6.0 11 6.6 56 6.8 5.0 12.6 102.7 68.1 1951* 37 WAS QB 33 12 9 5-4-0 67 154 43.5 1104 7 4.5 17 11.0 53 7.2 3.1 16.5 92.0 43.8 1 2 1952 38 WAS qb 33 7 5 3-2-0 20 33 60.6 152 2 6.1 1 3.0 20 4.6 4.5 7.6 21.7 79.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 1 hour ago, SouthNYfan said: Matt Ryan says otherwise. Matt Ryan had 2 years >60% before sliding a bit under his Sr year 1 hour ago, finn said: Troy Aikman pointed out that very few quarterbacks who were inaccurate in college have made it in the NFL. That got me thinking: are there ANY quarterbacks with Allen's low percentage (in a weak conference, too) who have made it? I'm genuinely curious. If you go back far enough (Favre, Kelly etc) to the days when good NFL QB had completion stats under 60%, there are quite a few. But it was a different game then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xerx Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 33 minutes ago, billspro said: He was not given as many easy throws as most QBs in college football. Mayfield for example probably had 7 completions on bubble screens per game. These takes are legitimate! He only threw the ball 25ish times a game, a lot of vertical stuff, intermediate stuff. They didn't run a lot of the stuff that leads to high completion rates, he wasn't throwing screens etc Not what he was asked to do in that offense. Let's see how he does in the Bills system. He's the opposite of Tyrod, he'll chuck it into those tighter windows and give his guys a change to make plays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 1 hour ago, Irv said: Everyone needs to chill out. Jim Kelly's college stats! Year Team Games Passing G Rec Att Cmp Pct Yds TD Int Rate 1979 Miami 11 5–6–0 104 48 46.2 721 5 6 108.7 1980 Miami 12 9–3–0 206 109 52.9 1,519 11 7 125.7 1981 Miami 11 9–2–0 285 168 58.9 2,403 14 14 136.2 1982 Miami 7–4–0 81 51 63.0 585 3 1 133.4 Career 45 30–15 676 376 55.6 5,228 33 28 128.4 The difference is you see improvement in those stats...where is the improvement in Allen's stats? Literally the same numbers from one year to the next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthNYfan Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Matt Ryan had 2 years >60% before sliding a bit under his Sr year If you go back far enough (Favre, Kelly etc) to the days when good NFL QB had completion stats under 60%, there are quite a few. But it was a different game then. I know hap I was just pointing out that jrober dropped the 60% "magic number" down to 58% to fit his narrative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 5 minutes ago, Xerx said: These takes are legitimate! He only threw the ball 25ish times a game, a lot of vertical stuff, intermediate stuff. They didn't run a lot of the stuff that leads to high completion rates, he wasn't throwing screens etc Not what he was asked to do in that offense. Let's see how he does in the Bills system. He's the opposite of Tyrod, he'll chuck it into those tighter windows and give his guys a change to make plays Yeah...polar opposite...one of the scouting reports said there were times in games he would make a throw in a window only 5 QBs in the entire world at any level would even attempt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BurpleBull Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 There was a stretch where Jay Cutler completed 60% of his passes 7 out of 9 seasons, he's currently at 62% for a career and he finished with a 57% completion rate at Vanderbilt. He'd be heralded as a great QB who never won a championship if he wasn't perceived to be an emotionless person and leader at QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Like A Mofo Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 As critical as I have been of Josh Allen, Im slowly warming up to him. The Bills however, DO have a precedent for taking a QB who appeared to be accurate in college..and...well... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TH3 Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 34 minutes ago, Lofton80 said: Phil Simms at Morehead St. finished with 409 completions in 835 attempts for a 48.9% completion percentage. Pretty sure he still holds completion percentage record for a Super Bowl game. But...but...we can only look at the last 20 years to fit the narrative.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midwest1981 Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 (edited) No recent examples. But the tape doesn’t show a wildly inaccurate QB. He throws high on shorter throws, which he has to fix. But his accuracy isn’t as alarming as the #’s suggest. Watch the 4:00 minute mark of this (this is one of the three games against teams from a major conference- Iowa from the Big 10- in which he “struggled” statistically). I didn’t post that to point out his accuracy but the play of his receiving options last year. The whole tape of that game demonstrates he had a better performance than just reading the box score the next day would tell you. Edited April 27, 2018 by Midwest1981 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
17 Josh Allen Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, finn said: Troy Aikman pointed out that very few quarterbacks who were inaccurate in college have made it in the NFL. That got me thinking: are there ANY quarterbacks with Allen's low percentage (in a weak conference, too) who have made it? I'm genuinely curious. Yes Jim Kelly, Brett Farve and Stafford all lower percentage throwers then Allen. . I rest my case Edited April 27, 2018 by Thurmanator 12074 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. ChumChums Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 You guys are all a bunch of negative nancies. Saying that we’ve signed ourselves to a bust of a QB is shortsighted. Sure, I have my concerns, but what the hell do I know (and for that matter, what the hell makes all of you experts)? Here are the simple facts: 1) we got one of the consensus top 4 QBs, and all we gave up to move up were 2 2nds, when half this board wanted to sell the farm 2) we got the QB with the highest ceiling of ALL the qbs in the draft - his potential was so high that he was in the conversation to be number 1 overall 3) we got a game changing linebacker prospect to lead our defense Seriously, chill the f*ck out people. Let’s ENJOY the fact that we got a great prospect, and look forward to watching him on the field and prove the experts wrong. And if he crashes and burns, THEN you have free reign to complain again. He very well may prove us all wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midwest1981 Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 I was about as much of an Allen detractor as there was and I was surprised when watching some tape that you couldn’t completely marry the stats to the actual play. I’m not even talking about the ‘wow’ throws. I’m still not totally bullish- and his accuracy still needs to memory (hopefully his mechanical work becomes a part of his muscle memory)- but he has a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 1 hour ago, sullim4 said: The one thing I will say in watching his tape last night is that he has a tendency to throw the ball away a lot rather than take sacks. To avoid a sack, did he throw the ball away to defenders, like Peterman, or to a totally uncatchable place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D521646 Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 Hey I'm as freaked out about the Allen pick as much as anyone but I'm not bent on being right about him more than I hope he turns out great for us. As to the accuracy thing, the film tells a better story. The raw numbers do NOT. When you watch the tape is the ball in the right spot? I've seen scouts talking about this about Allen, and attribute a lot of his raw accuracy numbers to being just plain skewed due to poor rout running, offensive scheme, for instance, Mayfield threw a lot of out-routes, and quick slants, or in general, easy throws. Allen did not run this type of offense in College; his OC decided to run with the long to intermediate type of game, where, you tend to throw it up, so to speak. If we take a look at the fantastic-4 QB's from this draft and compare those numbers, everything comes much more into focus. I am in trusting the process ATM, because, well, what choice do I have, but I do have some skepticism about the pick. Tim- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatonka68 Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 Brett Farve was a 54% passer in his senior year in college. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alluro Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 49ers get Jimmy G for one second round pick. We burn a 1st and 2 2s on the next Joe Flacco...brilliant! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatdrinks Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 1 minute ago, alluro said: 49ers get Jimmy G for one second round pick. We burn a 1st and 2 2s on the next Joe Flacco...brilliant! Except the chance of Garappolo being traded to the Bills was somewhere south of zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ol Dirty B Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 (edited) 2 hours ago, SouthNYfan said: Allen seemed to have a mechanical issue with his footwork leading to inconsistant throws. Why is it that we assume Darnold can fix his mechanics but Allen cannot? Again you picked 58% as an arbitrary number. A few QBs have been around the 60% mark. Russell Wilson was sub 60% until his absurd senior year comp% Allen is a Jr coming out Aren't you doing the same? You say 58% is arbitrary then boost it up two points to 60% so you can make a point about a guy who is good, but then discount his last year that is over 60%. That is an awful post. 30 minutes ago, Tatonka68 said: Brett Farve was a 54% passer in his senior year in college. In..... 1990. What was Johnny Unitas completion percentage? Come on man, you must know that's irrelevant and the style of play has changed. Did he throw as many picks too? It's like Peterman. Instead of positives we are comparing all the negatives of the greats to him, that's not sensible or good. Edited April 27, 2018 by Ol Dirty B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skibum Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 The % is low for Allen in large part because he didn't have a lot of dump-offs to running backs. Those pad the stats a lot. On tape, his long throws don't look inaccurate to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 23 minutes ago, skibum said: The % is low for Allen in large part because he didn't have a lot of dump-offs to running backs. Those pad the stats a lot. On tape, his long throws don't look inaccurate to me. Exactly. If the Wyoming offense had incorporated more of those short RB dump-offs and screens (if they'd had the RB talent to do it), Allen's completion percentage would easily have been 10 points higher and nobody would be talking about it. He certainly may have some "accuracy issues," but the constant references to completion percentage miss the mark as badly as an EJ Manuel pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sullim4 Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 1 hour ago, GG said: To avoid a sack, did he throw the ball away to defenders, like Peterman, or to a totally uncatchable place? Uncatchable. His arm is strong enough to throw it over everyone's head, even at awkward angles while on the run. Looking at his stats, he averages slightly less than 2 sacks per game. That's pretty good. I still don't like the pick but a lot of the comments here make him out to be JP Losman and I'm just not seeing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthNYfan Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 55 minutes ago, Ol Dirty B said: Aren't you doing the same? You say 58% is arbitrary then boost it up two points to 60% so you can make a point about a guy who is good, but then discount his last year that is over 60%. That is an awful post. In..... 1990. What was Johnny Unitas completion percentage? Come on man, you must know that's irrelevant and the style of play has changed. Did he throw as many picks too? It's like Peterman. Instead of positives we are comparing all the negatives of the greats to him, that's not sensible or good. No I'm not. The general consensus from just about every "expert" is 60%. He dropped it to 58% to fit his narrative. Favre, Marino, etc are too old of sample sizes. Rules and offensive scheme's have changed btw. Just like in the NBA,Jordan vs LeBron isn't fair because zone defenses were illegal when Jordan played. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsInWilmingtonNC Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 Everyone needs to relax and remember that we have Peterman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Green Lightning Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 3 hours ago, alluro said: The classic example is hall of famer Brett Favre who had a completion percentage of 52.4% coming out of Southern Mississippi. He and Stafford should be viewed as anomalies, however. The vast majority of inaccurate passers DO NOT overcome this weakness. I've never been more disappointed in a Bills draft in my life. SMH Same here. In fact with all the build-up, all the moves, and all the excitement last night was soul crushing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racketmaster Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 If you base accuracy solely on college completion percentage, you really don’t know what you are talking about. It is part of the equation but not everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatonka68 Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 (edited) Completion percentage is how many times a Quarterback throws the ball and someone from his own team catches the ball. Accuracy is the ball going to the place you intended the ball to go. You cannot accuse Allen of being inaccurate unless you know where he was targeting. When Allen played with the same level of talent in the Senior bowl Allen went 9 for 13 69% for 158 yards and 2 TDs. I know this is a small example, but is more accurate of an example. Edited April 27, 2018 by Tatonka68 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts