finn Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 Troy Aikman pointed out that very few quarterbacks who were inaccurate in college have made it in the NFL. That got me thinking: are there ANY quarterbacks with Allen's low percentage (in a weak conference, too) who have made it? I'm genuinely curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrober38 Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 (edited) No. Matt Stafford is the only guy with a sub 58% career completion percentage who has gone on to be a franchise QB in the NFL over the past 20 years. He also completed 61% of his throws his final year at Georgia. Edited April 27, 2018 by jrober38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthNYfan Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 Just now, jrober38 said: No. Matt Stafford is the only guy with a sub 58% career completion percentage who has gone on to be a franchise QB in the NFL over the past 20 years. Matt Ryan says otherwise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alluro Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 The classic example is hall of famer Brett Favre who had a completion percentage of 52.4% coming out of Southern Mississippi. He and Stafford should be viewed as anomalies, however. The vast majority of inaccurate passers DO NOT overcome this weakness. I've never been more disappointed in a Bills draft in my life. SMH 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrober38 Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said: Matt Ryan says otherwise. No he doesn't. LOL Ryan's career at BC was 59.9%. Stafford is the only guy in 20 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthNYfan Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 Just now, jrober38 said: No he doesn't. LOL Ryan's career at BC was 59.9%. Stafford is the only guy in 20 years. Oops. I was going with the general consensus that 60% if the magic#. You changed it to 58% to fit your narrative. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrober38 Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 1 minute ago, alluro said: The classic example is hall of famer Brett Favre who had a completion percentage of 52.4% coming out of Southern Mississippi. He and Stafford should be viewed as anomalies, however. The vast majority of inaccurate passers DO NOT overcome this weakness. I've never been more disappointed in a Bills draft in my life. SMH Agreed. Such a horrible pick. I'm having flash backs to 2013. All the reasons we picked Josh Allen are the same as why we picked EJ Manuel. All we're hearing about is the size, mobility, presence and arm strength. Just now, SouthNYfan said: Oops. I was going with the general consensus that 60% if the magic#. You changed it to 58% to fit your narrative. The point remains. In 20 years, 1 QB with a career completion percentage below 58% has made it as a franchise QB in the NFL. The odds of Allen working out are slim to none (which is what every advanced analytic says about him). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irv Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 Everyone needs to chill out. Jim Kelly's college stats! Year Team Games Passing G Rec Att Cmp Pct Yds TD Int Rate 1979 Miami 11 5–6–0 104 48 46.2 721 5 6 108.7 1980 Miami 12 9–3–0 206 109 52.9 1,519 11 7 125.7 1981 Miami 11 9–2–0 285 168 58.9 2,403 14 14 136.2 1982 Miami 7–4–0 81 51 63.0 585 3 1 133.4 Career 45 30–15 676 376 55.6 5,228 33 28 128.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rosen-not-Chosen Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 13 minutes ago, jrober38 said: No. Matt Stafford is the only guy with a sub 58% career completion percentage who has gone on to be a franchise QB in the NFL over the past 20 years. He also completed 61% of his throws his final year at Georgia. And what has he won in the NFL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrober38 Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 Just now, Rosen-not-Chosen said: And what has he won in the NFL? Nothing. The one thing all elite NFL QBs have in common is elite accuracy, and we just picked the least accurate QB in the draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 (edited) AJ McCarron completed just about 67% of his passes in college. Who needs context when you have raw numbers?! Same with Mariota... and one thing I've noticed when I watch him is that he really isn't all that accurate. Edited April 27, 2018 by dneveu 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Linen Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 Just now, jrober38 said: Nothing. The one thing all elite NFL QBs have in common is elite accuracy, and we just picked the least accurate QB in the draft. You're a truly amazing talent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthNYfan Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, jrober38 said: Agreed. Such a horrible pick. I'm having flash backs to 2013. All the reasons we picked Josh Allen are the same as why we picked EJ Manuel. All we're hearing about is the size, mobility, presence and arm strength. The point remains. In 20 years, 1 QB with a career completion percentage below 58% has made it as a franchise QB in the NFL. The odds of Allen working out are slim to none (which is what every advanced analytic says about him). Allen seemed to have a mechanical issue with his footwork leading to inconsistant throws. Why is it that we assume Darnold can fix his mechanics but Allen cannot? Again you picked 58% as an arbitrary number. A few QBs have been around the 60% mark. Russell Wilson was sub 60% until his absurd senior year comp% Allen is a Jr coming out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan1959 Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 Just now, jrober38 said: Nothing. The one thing all elite NFL QBs have in common is elite accuracy, and we just picked the least accurate QB in the draft. Not true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrober38 Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 1 minute ago, SouthNYfan said: Allen seemed to have a mechanical issue with his footwork leading to inconsistant throws. Why is it that we assume Darnold can fix his mechanics but Allen cannot? Again you picked 58% as an arbitrary number. A few QBs have been around the 60% mark. Russell Wilson was sub 60% until his absurd senior year comp% Allen is a Jr coming out Spin it anyway you want. Josh Allen isn't an accurate passer. Inaccurate college QBs don't become accurate once they get to the NFL. Josh Allen completed 56% of his throws against garbage competition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 Just now, jrober38 said: Spin it anyway you want. Josh Allen isn't an accurate passer. Inaccurate college QBs don't become accurate once they get to the NFL. Josh Allen completed 56% of his throws against garbage competition. ok... do you want him to be good? or do you want to be right? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan1959 Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 Just now, dneveu said: ok... do you want him to be good? or do you want to be right? That must be one of those rhetorical questions 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rosen-not-Chosen Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 (edited) 2 minutes ago, dneveu said: ok... do you want him to be good? or do you want to be right? He's not going to be good... History shows this. Edited April 27, 2018 by Rosen-not-Chosen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Linen Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 1 minute ago, jrober38 said: Spin it anyway you want. Josh Allen isn't an accurate passer. Inaccurate college QBs don't become accurate once they get to the NFL. Josh Allen completed 56% of his throws against garbage competition. You don't know a damn thing about accuracy because you're a sheep. Tyrod threw for 62.7% last year - is he accurate? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrober38 Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 (edited) 3 minutes ago, dneveu said: ok... do you want him to be good? or do you want to be right? I want him to be good, but I'm convinced we just flushed 3-4 years down the toilet with this pick. There is no precedent for guys like Allen being successful in the NFL. I've watched JP Losman, Josh Freeman, Kyle Boller, Josh Freeman, Blaine Gabbert and Jake Locker, and Allen is just like all of those guys. Being big and strong and able to throw the ball 80 yards isn't enough in the NFL. Poor accuracy and decision making isn't something that gets corrected once you're playing against the best defenders in the world and the throwing lanes get significantly smaller than the ones he faced in the Mountain West Conference. Someone was going to get suckered into thinking they could "fix" Allen. I'm really disappointed it was the Bills. Edited April 27, 2018 by jrober38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeelingOnYouboty Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 10 minutes ago, dneveu said: AJ McCarron completed just about 67% of his passes in college. Who needs context when you have raw numbers?! Same with Mariota... and one thing I've noticed when I watch him is that he really isn't all that accurate. Oh dear God Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 26 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said: Matt Ryan says otherwise. The Big East and MWC are worlds apart. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdFront_USAF Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 One of his most compared-to players is Cam Newton. Look at Cam's pre-draft stuff, it's quite similar. You'll see things like "big body, huge arm, crazy athletic for his size". You'll also see "needs to work on accuracy, reading defenses, making smart decisions with the ball". I for one am entirely shocked that two guys who coached/learned in Carolina and helped take Cam to a Super Bowl decided to draft a guy frequently compared to him. As for accuracy.. Jordan Palmer said a lot of stuff about it, so I'll just paraphrase rather than parrot him. He said the raw number isn't everything (another shock, I know). The team around him got significantly worse in 2017, as his mostly senior team from 16 all graduated and moved on. Yet, his completion percentage remained the same. It actually shows an improvement when factoring in that he lost a huge amount of his offense. Palmer and Allen both cited footwork issues that resulted in accuracy. That's coachable, to what extent remains to be seen. And the "unable to read a defense" thing, well I'm not sold on that narrative. At the very least, the potential is there, as he has proven to be very smart with the X's and O's. Let's wait and see if he can apply his intelligence to the field. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Linen Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, jrober38 said: I want him to be good, but I'm convinced we just flushed 3-4 years down the toilet with this pick. There is no precedent for guys like Allen being successful in the NFL. I've watched JP Losman, Josh Freeman, Kyle Boller, Josh Freeman, Blaine Gabbert and Jake Locker, and Allen is just like all of those guys. Being big and strong and able to throw the ball 80 yards isn't enough in the NFL. Poor accuracy and decision making isn't something that gets corrected once you're playing against the best defenders in the world and the throwing lanes get significantly smaller than the ones he faced in the Mountain West Conference. Someone was going to get suckered into thinking they could "fix" Allen. I'm really disappointed it was the Bills. You don't know crap. You're a follower. You have absolutely no clue what goes into a throwing % number or at least don't care enough to learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthNYfan Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, jrober38 said: I want him to be good, but I'm convinced we just flushed 3-4 years down the toilet with this pick. There is no precedent for guys like Allen being successful in the NFL. I've watched JP Losman, Josh Freeman, Kyle Boller, Josh Freeman, Blaine Gabbert and Jake Locker, and Allen is just like all of those guys. Being big and strong and able to throw the ball 80 yards isn't enough in the NFL. Poor accuracy and decision making isn't something that gets corrected once you're playing against the best defenders in the world and the throwing lanes get significantly smaller than the ones he faced in the Mountain West Conference. Someone was going to get suckered into thinking they could "fix" Allen. I'm really disappointed it was the Bills. Poor accuracy and poor decision making agent the same thing. Peterman was over 60% though. Maybe we should start him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billspro Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, jrober38 said: I want him to be good, but I'm convinced we just flushed 3-4 years down the toilet with this pick. There is no precedent for guys like Allen being successful in the NFL. I've watched JP Losman, Josh Freeman, Kyle Boller, Josh Freeman, Blaine Gabbert and Jake Locker, and Allen is just like all of those guys. Poor accuracy and decision making isn't something that gets corrected once you're playing against the best defenders in the world and the throwing lanes get significantly smaller than the ones he faced in the Mountain West Conference. Someone was going to get suckered into thinking they could "fix" Allen. I'm really disappointed it was the Bills. I get what you're saying. There is no doubt that Allen is a risky pick. He is much more talented than any of those QBs you mention and it is not even close. Hopefully, he will be the exception to the rule. Hopefully, we can develop him like Stafford who was a big armed QB with accuracy issues. Stafford was a below 60% thrower for his first 6 NFL seasons pretty much. Mahommes is another big-armed guy with accuracy issues (his completion % was very inflated in the air raid), the jury is still out on him. Favre and Kelly also improved their accuracy at the NFL level, that was a different era though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chuck Wagon Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 If Wyoming had run 1 more bubble screen (easy completion) vs vertical pass every game he played in (25 games) he'd be a 60% passer. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthNYfan Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said: The Big East and MWC are worlds apart. I don't disagree. I'm just saying that jrober is exaggerating and moving the accuracy slider to make his point seem more valid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sullim4 Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 The one thing I will say in watching his tape last night is that he has a tendency to throw the ball away a lot rather than take sacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billspro Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, ColdFront_USAF said: One of his most compared-to players is Cam Newton. Look at Cam's pre-draft stuff, it's quite similar. You'll see things like "big body, huge arm, crazy athletic for his size". You'll also see "needs to work on accuracy, reading defenses, making smart decisions with the ball". I for one am entirely shocked that two guys who coached/learned in Carolina and helped take Cam to a Super Bowl decided to draft a guy frequently compared to him. As for accuracy.. Jordan Palmer said a lot of stuff about it, so I'll just paraphrase rather than parrot him. He said the raw number isn't everything (another shock, I know). The team around him got significantly worse in 2017, as his mostly senior team from 16 all graduated and moved on. Yet, his completion percentage remained the same. It actually shows an improvement when factoring in that he lost a huge amount of his offense. Palmer and Allen both cited footwork issues that resulted in accuracy. That's coachable, to what extent remains to be seen. And the "unable to read a defense" thing, well I'm not sold on that narrative. At the very least, the potential is there, as he has proven to be very smart with the X's and O's. Let's wait and see if he can apply his intelligence to the field. Those are good points as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Linen Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said: If Wyoming had run 1 more bubble screen (easy completion) vs vertical pass every game he played in (25 games) he'd be a 60% passer. Exactly right - thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billspro Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 1 minute ago, Chuck Wagon said: If Wyoming had run 1 more bubble screen (easy completion) vs vertical pass every game he played in (25 games) he'd be a 60% passer. He was not given as many easy throws as most QBs in college football. Mayfield for example probably had 7 completions on bubble screens per game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chuck Wagon Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 11 minutes ago, billspro said: He was not given as many easy throws as most QBs in college football. Mayfield for example probably had 7 completions on bubble screens per game. I might get flamed for it, but Wyoming was one of the very worst teams in Division 1 last year. Everything they accomplished (winning a bowl game) was Allen. As a Buckeye fan, after watching Barrett all year and tape of Allen, I think the Buckeyes win the title last year with Allen at QB and what would put a very different story on him as a prospect. Flip him and Baker in Wyoming vs Oklahoma, I think Allen is pick #1 and Baker is a day 1 / day 2 fringe guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, billspro said: He was not given as many easy throws as most QBs in college football. Mayfield for example probably had 7 completions on bubble screens per game. When your receivers suck, you tend to not throw bubble screens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 24 minutes ago, Irv said: Everyone needs to chill out. Jim Kelly's college stats! Year Team Games Passing G Rec Att Cmp Pct Yds TD Int Rate 1979 Miami 11 5–6–0 104 48 46.2 721 5 6 108.7 1980 Miami 12 9–3–0 206 109 52.9 1,519 11 7 125.7 1981 Miami 11 9–2–0 285 168 58.9 2,403 14 14 136.2 1982 Miami 7–4–0 81 51 63.0 585 3 1 133.4 Career 45 30–15 676 376 55.6 5,228 33 28 128.4 Can we post Joe Namath’s college stats too? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said: If Wyoming had run 1 more bubble screen (easy completion) vs vertical pass every game he played in (25 games) he'd be a 60% passer. Well.......I’m trying not to be one of those guys, but the first pass I ever saw him throw was a bubble screen to his left. He one hopped it to the WR and I thought “he’s another EJ lacking natural throwing ability”. I’m praying we get Good Josh from the Senior Bowl, not Bad Josh the One Hopper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojo44 Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 25 minutes ago, Irv said: Everyone needs to chill out. Jim Kelly's college stats! Year Team Games Passing G Rec Att Cmp Pct Yds TD Int Rate 1979 Miami 11 5–6–0 104 48 46.2 721 5 6 108.7 1980 Miami 12 9–3–0 206 109 52.9 1,519 11 7 125.7 1981 Miami 11 9–2–0 285 168 58.9 2,403 14 14 136.2 1982 Miami 7–4–0 81 51 63.0 585 3 1 133.4 Career 45 30–15 676 376 55.6 5,228 33 28 128.4 This data is certainly a poke in the eye of all of the Allen haters! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said: Can we post Joe Namath’s college stats too? Post Joe Namath's HOF pro stats too... absolutely insane that the guys in the hall of fame. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billspro Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said: I might get flamed for it, but Wyoming was one of the very worst teams in Division 1 last year. Everything they accomplished (winning a bowl game) was Allen. As a Buckeye fan, after watching Barrett all year and tape of Allen, I think the Buckeyes win the title last year with Allen at QB and what would put a very different story on him as a prospect. Flip him and Baker in Wyoming vs Oklahoma, I think Allen is pick #1 and Baker is a day 1 / day 2 fringe guy. That could be true, let's hope so. Wyoming did lose to one of the worst teams in college football when Allen was hurt. I just rewatched his senior bowl and he looked good throwing to better players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerJ Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 26 minutes ago, Irv said: Everyone needs to chill out. Jim Kelly's college stats! Year Team Games Passing G Rec Att Cmp Pct Yds TD Int Rate 1979 Miami 11 5–6–0 104 48 46.2 721 5 6 108.7 1980 Miami 12 9–3–0 206 109 52.9 1,519 11 7 125.7 1981 Miami 11 9–2–0 285 168 58.9 2,403 14 14 136.2 1982 Miami 7–4–0 81 51 63.0 585 3 1 133.4 Career 45 30–15 676 376 55.6 5,228 33 28 128.4 And Dan Marino's Passing Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate Career Pitt 693 1204 57.6 8597 7.1 5.9 79 69 127.7 *1979 Pitt Ind QB 12 130 222 58.6 1680 7.6 6.6 10 9 128.9 *1980 Pitt Ind QB 12 116 224 51.8 1609 7.2 5.7 15 14 121.7 *1981 Pitt Ind QB 12 226 380 59.5 2876 7.6 6.8 37 23 143.1 *1982 Pitt Ind QB 12 221 378 58.5 2432 6.4 4.6 17 23 115.2 Note Marino's interception stats - 46 interceptions over his final two years. In his senior year he had 17 touchdown passes and 23 interceptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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