Domdab99 Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 (edited) Speaking of Allen... A nice compendium on everything with regards to why Allen is a huge bust waiting to happen. If Josh Allen succeeds, his GM will have outsmarted basically all regular humans and the entirety of math itself Some highlights: Where Josh Allen’s peers ranked in college QB Last college year Last college QB rating ranking Baker Mayfield 2017 1 Marcus Mariota 2014 1 Philip Rivers 2003 1 Russell Wilson 2011 1 Alex Smith 2004 2 Ben Roethlisberger 2003 2 Cam Newton 2010 2 Mason Rudolph 2017 3 Case Keenum 2011 4 Andy Dalton 2010 5 Carson Palmer 2002 5 Aaron Rodgers 2004 8 Blake Bortles 2013 9 Carson Wentz 2015 11 (FCS) Mitchell Trubisky 2016 11 Brett Hundley 2014 13 Tyrod Taylor 2010 13 Derek Carr 2013 15 Matthew Stafford 2008 15 Tom Brady 1999 17 Eli Manning 2003 18 Joe Flacco 2007 18 (FCS) Dak Prescott 2015 22 Non-Allen average - 23.4 Drew Brees 2000 25 Jameis Winston 2014 26 Sam Darnold 2017 26 Josh Rosen 2017 28 Kirk Cousins 2011 28 DeShone Kizer 2016 29 Lamar Jackson 2017 29 Jay Cutler 2005 60 Jacoby Brissett 2015 61 Matt Ryan 2007 61 Josh Allen 2017 73 C.J. Beathard 2016 78 Josh McCown 2000 90 Trevor Siemian 2014 104 Football Outsiders’ QBASE formula mixes conventional wisdom with stats, giving a boost to players who are popular among scouts and mockers. Its all-time college top 10 — Rivers, Palmer, McNabb, Mayfield, Wilson, Peyton Manning, Mariota, Byron Leftwich, Rodgers, and Roethlisberger — gives it credibility as an NFL predictor. Well, Allen’s sub-zero results are “horrifying,” in FO’s words: “Since 1997, there have been 27 quarterbacks chosen in the top 100 with QBASE ratings below zero. The best was either Josh McCown or Brian Griese.” Allen was among the least accurate of his peers at each of three levels anyway: ESPN Another argument in Allen’s favor: he might have the strongest arm of any QB ever. But: Another defense of Allen: his receivers were bad. Well, first, they were mostly playing against MWC cornerbacks, who are not the world’s greatest. Secondly, Allen’s WRs at least had good hands, even if they weren’t game-changing athletes: Another: his offensive line was bad. However, he ended up with plenty of time in the pocket, even if he created a lot of it himself. It’s fair to note the three QBs with the most time are also good at running around — nobody would argue Jackson’s offensive line was actually solid, for example. **************************** Why would anyone sane want to draft this guy?? Edited April 25, 2018 by Domdab99 3 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bangarang Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 The signs are all there. People are going to get fired for putting their eggs in that basket. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
transplantbillsfan Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 Very nicely put together. I really think it's highly possible Allen freefalls. But my #1 hope is that Cleveland drafts him at #1 so I don't have to worry about Buffalo drafting him and it leaves all the other good prospects on the board. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat68 Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 The analystics vs the "eye". Case study in real time. Very different players Josh Allen and Baker Mayfiled. I think Allen translates to the NFL better. I think he will have better career. Time will tell and this really is the best contrast in some time. Maybe ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Domdab99 Posted April 25, 2018 Author Share Posted April 25, 2018 1 minute ago, Mat68 said: The analystics vs the "eye". Case study in real time. Very different players Josh Allen and Baker Mayfiled. I think Allen translates to the NFL better. I think he will have better career. Time will tell and this really is the best contrast in some time. Maybe ever. This is what I don't understand. Why?? What is it about his college career that makes you say this? It's completely bewildering to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 Can you promise this is the “LAST”? I don’t want him, but I’ll be happy to eat crow if I’m wrong and he kills it for the Bills. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awwufelloff Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 Everyone knows this stuff including the scouts. Browns are going Darnold Jets are going Rosen. Allen is going to fall pretty far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jr1 Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KDIGGZ Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 This sums it up: If Josh Allen succeeds, his GM will have outsmarted basically all regular humans and the entirety of math itself. He could succeed. And I could win the lottery. It could happen but it's highly unlikely! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 Take heed TSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awwufelloff Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 (edited) Why do NFL teams get so caught up in QBs who can throw it far? How often do you really bomb it each game? 1-2 times? The top 3 QBS the last decade are not athletic at all. Give me the accurate passer 10/10 times. Edited April 25, 2018 by Awwufelloff 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nbbillsfan Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 Strange question, but would rather pick Allen at 12 or trade up to get him (perhaps even above other top 4 QBs)? i know it’s strange, but I might be happier/more confident if we traded up to get him and got the sense that he was “our guy” and not just a potential obvious bust we got stuck with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrober38 Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 Allen is not a good football player. The talk of him going top 5 if completely insane. Give me Mayfield everyday and twice on Sunday. He's the most accurate QB in the draft. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul Costa Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 TRUST THE PROCESS. If Beane takes Allen embrace it if your a true Bills fan ? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddaryl Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 Allen really needs time ti develop and i dont think mccarron is the qb you develop Allen behind. New England with Brady woukd be ideal especially if Brady plays thru 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
/dev/null Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 21 minutes ago, Augie said: Can you promise this is the “LAST”? I don’t want him, but I’ll be happy to eat crow if I’m wrong and he kills it for the Bills. if this is indeed the "last" then the previous would be the penultimate josh allen is a bust thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KDIGGZ Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, Paul Costa said: TRUST THE PROCESS. If Beane takes Allen embrace it if your a true Bills fan ? Nope I will not blindly trust a rookie gm on his first draft when he may or may not have any idea what a QB looks like. Does that make me less of a bills fan because I watch film, study stats, and trust my own eyes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillyG Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 Lamar Jackson: NO AGENT - He's inconsistent - He's inaccurate - Strong arm and athletic - Can't make progressions Maybe a WR Josh Allen: HAS AGENT - He's inconsistent - He's inaccurate - Strong arm and athletic - Can't make progressions Biggest upside to anyone in the draft. There's a reason for that 3% being a value. The way they are presented in the media is the biggest case in point I've ever seen. They have the same flaws by and large...no one is saying Allen would be smart to consider TE. Honestly if I was forced to choose I'd have to pick Jackson as he's at the very least way more of an athlete. Way more dangerous a playmaker. And I really hope we don't end up with Jackson. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthNYfan Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 36 minutes ago, jr1 said: Orlovsky sure knows how to spot a bad QB. He stares a terrible one in the mirror every morning!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay_Fixit Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 (edited) I’ll bet my left nut this isn’t the last one. Edited April 25, 2018 by Jay_Fixit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HappyDays Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 12 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said: I’ll bet my left nut this isn’t the last one. Imagine if we draft him! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat68 Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 40 minutes ago, Domdab99 said: This is what I don't understand. Why?? What is it about his college career that makes you say this? It's completely bewildering to me. I have seen Allen make every NFL throw needed. At his best Allen already does everything you need from a Qb in the NFL. In College teams usually win by out athleting the other team. Wyoming did not have the better roster in any game they played in 2017. He turned around a perenial buttom feeder school and won the most games in 2 years then the school has had in 30 years. I watch him and I see young Farve. He could be a bust. So could any of them. Give me the guy with the most abilty. I feel working on his footwork sures up some of his mis fires, and working in a modern offense will grant him the easy completions he went without in college. As a Bills fan, as much as Allen intrigues me personally, I think Rosen should be the guy because he seems the most ready now. Outside of Rosen they all have a fair level of molding and coaching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay_Fixit Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, HappyDays said: Imagine if we draft him! Dude... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaCrispy Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 1 hour ago, Awwufelloff said: Everyone knows this stuff including the scouts. Browns are going Darnold Jets are going Rosen. Allen is going to fall pretty far. All it takes is one team...I just pray to God that team isn’t the Bills 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul Costa Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 37 minutes ago, kdiggz said: Nope I will not blindly trust a rookie gm on his first draft when he may or may not have any idea what a QB looks like. Does that make me less of a bills fan because I watch film, study stats, and trust my own eyes? No that makes you a arrogant idiot that doesn’t believe in your teams vision. You are a welcome to your opinion like every fan. And that’s what you are a fan like everyone else on this board. Nothing more nothing less ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaCrispy Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 (edited) 8 minutes ago, HappyDays said: Imagine if we draft him! There will be so many Bills fans booing and other team’s fans laughing in Dallas. I think I would rather have Mason Rudolph at 12 than Josh Allen at 12. Edited April 25, 2018 by JaCrispy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KDIGGZ Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 4 minutes ago, Paul Costa said: No that makes you a arrogant idiot that doesn’t believe in your teams vision. You are a welcome to your opinion like every fan. And that’s what you are a fan like everyone else on this board. Nothing more nothing less ? Sorry, it's been 20 yrs of believing in team visions. I believe in my own vision. I'm not a mindless robot that loves everything my favorite team does. I encourage you to do your own research and form your own opinions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 When I look into his eyes, I don’t see a champion. When I hear him talk, I don’t hear a winner. This just seems to big for him. If we take him, hopefully he can grow into it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Brown Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, NewEra said: When I look into his eyes, I don’t see a champion. When I hear him talk, I don’t hear a winner. This just seems to big for him. If we take him, hopefully he can grow into it You're playing and you think everything is going fine. Then one thing goes wrong. And then another. And another. You try to fight back, but the harder you fight, the deeper you sink. Until you can't move... you can't breathe... because you're in over your head. Like quicksand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul Costa Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 Just now, kdiggz said: Sorry, it's been 20 yrs of believing in team visions. I believe in my own vision. I'm not a mindless robot that loves everything my favorite team does. I encourage you to do your own research and form your own opinions I have done my own research and it’s pretty obvious that Brandon Beane knows more about this draft than you and me combined. I have a full time job As a school teacher. I’m sure you have a profession too. Brandon Beane is our GM and I trust him to do everything in his power to improve our team. He is new to our program and in my opinion has made all the right moves. I trust him more than you. Sorry nothing personal ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KDIGGZ Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 1 minute ago, Paul Costa said: I have done my own research and it’s pretty obvious that Brandon Beane knows more about this draft than you and me combined. I have a full time job As a school teacher. I’m sure you have a profession too. Brandon Beane is our GM and I trust him to do everything in his power to improve our team. He is new to our program and in my opinion has made all the right moves. I trust him more than you. Sorry nothing personal ? That's fine. I trust myself more than him. We have the same number of drafts under our belts and I played QB for a decade and he played golf. Nothing personal towards him either. Maybe he can spot other positions better than me but I trust my eyes on QB 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillsGospel Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 Tom Brady already proved all this BS wrong. If Josh Allen has it set in his mind he wants to be the best QB of all time, he has the arm and legs to do that and the body mold to withstand the beating. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Domdab99 Posted April 25, 2018 Author Share Posted April 25, 2018 45 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said: I’ll bet my left nut this isn’t the last one. Well, it's MY last one. At least until I start an "I told you so" thread." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RFL Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 9 minutes ago, BuffaloBillsGospel said: Tom Brady already proved all this BS wrong. If Josh Allen has it set in his mind he wants to be the best QB of all time, he has the arm and legs to do that and the body mold to withstand the beating. Marino was the 6th QB off the board in ‘83......what a bust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Domdab99 Posted April 25, 2018 Author Share Posted April 25, 2018 29 minutes ago, JaCrispy said: There will be so many Bills fans booing and other team’s fans laughing in Dallas. I think I would rather have Mason Rudolph at 12 than Josh Allen at 12. Yeah, and I'd rather have ball cancer than AIDS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul Costa Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, kdiggz said: That's fine. I trust myself more than him. We have the same number of drafts under our belts and I played QB for a decade and he played golf. Nothing personal towards him either. Maybe he can spot other positions better than me but I trust my eyes on QB I hope Mr. Beane makes all the right moves in the draft like he has so far as Buffalo’s GM. The Pegula’s chose Mr. Beane instead of you. Maybe they were right maybe they will be proven wrong. I’m a Bills fan and try not to criticize them too much . It’s really hard sometimes. My first game was at the Rockpile during OJ’s rookie season. They have had many bad teams over the years. I actually think the program is in really good hands right now. I thank Mr. Wilson and his family for that. I TRUST THE PROCESS and not some guy who said he played Quarterback for 10 years and criticizing the GM . I hope your wrong. Nothing personal ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Domdab99 Posted April 25, 2018 Author Share Posted April 25, 2018 43 minutes ago, Mat68 said: I have seen Allen make every NFL throw needed. At his best Allen already does everything you need from a Qb in the NFL. In College teams usually win by out athleting the other team. Wyoming did not have the better roster in any game they played in 2017. He turned around a perenial buttom feeder school and won the most games in 2 years then the school has had in 30 years. I watch him and I see young Farve. He could be a bust. So could any of them. Give me the guy with the most abilty. I feel working on his footwork sures up some of his mis fires, and working in a modern offense will grant him the easy completions he went without in college. As a Bills fan, as much as Allen intrigues me personally, I think Rosen should be the guy because he seems the most ready now. Outside of Rosen they all have a fair level of molding and coaching. But the difference is, that all the other guys have shown it in college. Allen has not. He's all potential and no resume. The guy has fewer pass attempts in his college career than Rosen, Darnold, and Mayfield have pass completions. Did you even read the link in my OP? Or any of the stuff I posted from it? Just, "He looks like a QB?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddaryl Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 (edited) It will suck if Allen turns out to be that 1 in a 100 that actually makes it and all the anti Allens have to watch him on another team for 15 years while the chorus of told you so ring continually Edited April 25, 2018 by ddaryl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Domdab99 Posted April 25, 2018 Author Share Posted April 25, 2018 14 minutes ago, ddaryl said: It will suck if Allen turns out to be that 1 in a 100 that actually makes it and all the anti Allens have to watch him on another team for 15 years while the chorus of told you so ring continually I'll survive. It will suck more to draft him and he's exactly what we think he is. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddaryl Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 (edited) 28 minutes ago, Domdab99 said: I'll survive. It will suck more to draft him and he's exactly what we think he is. That is the fear. We cannot afford to much risk Edited April 25, 2018 by ddaryl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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