Domdab99 Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 (edited) Speaking of Allen... A nice compendium on everything with regards to why Allen is a huge bust waiting to happen. If Josh Allen succeeds, his GM will have outsmarted basically all regular humans and the entirety of math itself Some highlights: Where Josh Allen’s peers ranked in college QB Last college year Last college QB rating ranking Baker Mayfield 2017 1 Marcus Mariota 2014 1 Philip Rivers 2003 1 Russell Wilson 2011 1 Alex Smith 2004 2 Ben Roethlisberger 2003 2 Cam Newton 2010 2 Mason Rudolph 2017 3 Case Keenum 2011 4 Andy Dalton 2010 5 Carson Palmer 2002 5 Aaron Rodgers 2004 8 Blake Bortles 2013 9 Carson Wentz 2015 11 (FCS) Mitchell Trubisky 2016 11 Brett Hundley 2014 13 Tyrod Taylor 2010 13 Derek Carr 2013 15 Matthew Stafford 2008 15 Tom Brady 1999 17 Eli Manning 2003 18 Joe Flacco 2007 18 (FCS) Dak Prescott 2015 22 Non-Allen average - 23.4 Drew Brees 2000 25 Jameis Winston 2014 26 Sam Darnold 2017 26 Josh Rosen 2017 28 Kirk Cousins 2011 28 DeShone Kizer 2016 29 Lamar Jackson 2017 29 Jay Cutler 2005 60 Jacoby Brissett 2015 61 Matt Ryan 2007 61 Josh Allen 2017 73 C.J. Beathard 2016 78 Josh McCown 2000 90 Trevor Siemian 2014 104 Football Outsiders’ QBASE formula mixes conventional wisdom with stats, giving a boost to players who are popular among scouts and mockers. Its all-time college top 10 — Rivers, Palmer, McNabb, Mayfield, Wilson, Peyton Manning, Mariota, Byron Leftwich, Rodgers, and Roethlisberger — gives it credibility as an NFL predictor. Well, Allen’s sub-zero results are “horrifying,” in FO’s words: “Since 1997, there have been 27 quarterbacks chosen in the top 100 with QBASE ratings below zero. The best was either Josh McCown or Brian Griese.” Allen was among the least accurate of his peers at each of three levels anyway: ESPN Another argument in Allen’s favor: he might have the strongest arm of any QB ever. But: Another defense of Allen: his receivers were bad. Well, first, they were mostly playing against MWC cornerbacks, who are not the world’s greatest. Secondly, Allen’s WRs at least had good hands, even if they weren’t game-changing athletes: Another: his offensive line was bad. However, he ended up with plenty of time in the pocket, even if he created a lot of it himself. It’s fair to note the three QBs with the most time are also good at running around — nobody would argue Jackson’s offensive line was actually solid, for example. **************************** Why would anyone sane want to draft this guy?? Edited April 25, 2018 by Domdab99 3 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bangarang Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 The signs are all there. People are going to get fired for putting their eggs in that basket. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
transplantbillsfan Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 Very nicely put together. I really think it's highly possible Allen freefalls. But my #1 hope is that Cleveland drafts him at #1 so I don't have to worry about Buffalo drafting him and it leaves all the other good prospects on the board. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat68 Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 The analystics vs the "eye". Case study in real time. Very different players Josh Allen and Baker Mayfiled. I think Allen translates to the NFL better. I think he will have better career. Time will tell and this really is the best contrast in some time. Maybe ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Domdab99 Posted April 25, 2018 Author Share Posted April 25, 2018 1 minute ago, Mat68 said: The analystics vs the "eye". Case study in real time. Very different players Josh Allen and Baker Mayfiled. I think Allen translates to the NFL better. I think he will have better career. Time will tell and this really is the best contrast in some time. Maybe ever. This is what I don't understand. Why?? What is it about his college career that makes you say this? It's completely bewildering to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 Can you promise this is the “LAST”? I don’t want him, but I’ll be happy to eat crow if I’m wrong and he kills it for the Bills. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awwufelloff Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 Everyone knows this stuff including the scouts. Browns are going Darnold Jets are going Rosen. Allen is going to fall pretty far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jr1 Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KDIGGZ Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 This sums it up: If Josh Allen succeeds, his GM will have outsmarted basically all regular humans and the entirety of math itself. He could succeed. And I could win the lottery. It could happen but it's highly unlikely! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 Take heed TSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awwufelloff Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 (edited) Why do NFL teams get so caught up in QBs who can throw it far? How often do you really bomb it each game? 1-2 times? The top 3 QBS the last decade are not athletic at all. Give me the accurate passer 10/10 times. Edited April 25, 2018 by Awwufelloff 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nbbillsfan Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 Strange question, but would rather pick Allen at 12 or trade up to get him (perhaps even above other top 4 QBs)? i know it’s strange, but I might be happier/more confident if we traded up to get him and got the sense that he was “our guy” and not just a potential obvious bust we got stuck with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrober38 Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 Allen is not a good football player. The talk of him going top 5 if completely insane. Give me Mayfield everyday and twice on Sunday. He's the most accurate QB in the draft. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul Costa Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 TRUST THE PROCESS. If Beane takes Allen embrace it if your a true Bills fan ? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddaryl Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 Allen really needs time ti develop and i dont think mccarron is the qb you develop Allen behind. New England with Brady woukd be ideal especially if Brady plays thru 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
/dev/null Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 21 minutes ago, Augie said: Can you promise this is the “LAST”? I don’t want him, but I’ll be happy to eat crow if I’m wrong and he kills it for the Bills. if this is indeed the "last" then the previous would be the penultimate josh allen is a bust thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KDIGGZ Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, Paul Costa said: TRUST THE PROCESS. If Beane takes Allen embrace it if your a true Bills fan ? Nope I will not blindly trust a rookie gm on his first draft when he may or may not have any idea what a QB looks like. Does that make me less of a bills fan because I watch film, study stats, and trust my own eyes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillyG Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 Lamar Jackson: NO AGENT - He's inconsistent - He's inaccurate - Strong arm and athletic - Can't make progressions Maybe a WR Josh Allen: HAS AGENT - He's inconsistent - He's inaccurate - Strong arm and athletic - Can't make progressions Biggest upside to anyone in the draft. There's a reason for that 3% being a value. The way they are presented in the media is the biggest case in point I've ever seen. They have the same flaws by and large...no one is saying Allen would be smart to consider TE. Honestly if I was forced to choose I'd have to pick Jackson as he's at the very least way more of an athlete. Way more dangerous a playmaker. And I really hope we don't end up with Jackson. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthNYfan Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 36 minutes ago, jr1 said: Orlovsky sure knows how to spot a bad QB. He stares a terrible one in the mirror every morning!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay_Fixit Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 (edited) I’ll bet my left nut this isn’t the last one. Edited April 25, 2018 by Jay_Fixit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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