LAST "Why Josh Allen is a Huge Bust Waiting To Happen" Thread!!

[Domdab99]

 

Speaking of Allen...

 

A nice compendium on everything with regards to why Allen is a huge bust waiting to happen. 

 

If Josh Allen succeeds, his GM will have outsmarted basically all regular humans and the entirety of math itself

 

Some highlights:

Where Josh Allen’s peers ranked in college

QB	Last college year	Last college QB rating ranking
Baker Mayfield	2017	1
Marcus Mariota	2014	1
Philip Rivers	2003	1
Russell Wilson	2011	1
Alex Smith	2004	2
Ben Roethlisberger	2003	2
Cam Newton	2010	2
Mason Rudolph	2017	3
Case Keenum	2011	4
Andy Dalton	2010	5
Carson Palmer	2002	5
Aaron Rodgers	2004	8
Blake Bortles	2013	9
Carson Wentz	2015	11 (FCS)
Mitchell Trubisky	2016	11
Brett Hundley	2014	13
Tyrod Taylor	2010	13
Derek Carr	2013	15
Matthew Stafford	2008	15
Tom Brady	1999	17
Eli Manning	2003	18
Joe Flacco	2007	18 (FCS)
Dak Prescott	2015	22
Non-Allen average	-	23.4
Drew Brees	2000	25
Jameis Winston	2014	26
Sam Darnold	2017	26
Josh Rosen	2017	28
Kirk Cousins	2011	28
DeShone Kizer	2016	29
Lamar Jackson	2017	29
Jay Cutler	2005	60
Jacoby Brissett	2015	61
Matt Ryan	2007	61
Josh Allen	2017	73
C.J. Beathard	2016	78
Josh McCown	2000	90
Trevor Siemian	2014	104

 

 

Football Outsiders’ QBASE formula mixes conventional wisdom with stats, giving a boost to players who are popular among scouts and mockers. Its all-time college top 10 — Rivers, Palmer, McNabb, Mayfield, Wilson, Peyton Manning, Mariota, Byron Leftwich, Rodgers, and Roethlisberger — gives it credibility as an NFL predictor.

 

Well, Allen’s sub-zero results are “horrifying,” in FO’s words: “Since 1997, there have been 27 quarterbacks chosen in the top 100 with QBASE ratings below zero. The best was either Josh McCown or Brian Griese.”

 

 

 

Allen was among the least accurate of his peers at each of three levels anyway:

 

ESPN

 

Another argument in Allen’s favor: he might have the strongest arm of any QB ever. But:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Another defense of Allen: his receivers were bad.

Well, first, they were mostly playing against MWC cornerbacks, who are not the world’s greatest. Secondly, Allen’s WRs at least had good hands, even if they weren’t game-changing athletes:

 

 

 

Another: his offensive line was bad. However, he ended up with plenty of time in the pocket, even if he created a lot of it himself.

 

 

 

 

It’s fair to note the three QBs with the most time are also good at running around — nobody would argue Jackson’s offensive line was actually solid, for example.

 

****************************

 

Why would anyone sane want to draft this guy?? 

Edited April 25, 2018 by Domdab99

[Bangarang]

The signs are all there. People are going to get fired for putting their eggs in that basket.

[transplantbillsfan]

Very nicely put together.

 

 

I really think it's highly possible Allen freefalls.  But my #1 hope is that Cleveland drafts him at #1 so I don't have to worry about Buffalo drafting him and it leaves all the other good prospects on the board.

[Mat68]

The analystics vs the "eye".  Case study in real time.  Very different players Josh Allen and Baker Mayfiled.  I think Allen translates to the NFL better.  I think he will have better career.  Time will tell and this really is the best contrast in some time.  Maybe ever.

[Domdab99]

1 minute ago, Mat68 said:

The analystics vs the "eye".  Case study in real time.  Very different players Josh Allen and Baker Mayfiled.  I think Allen translates to the NFL better.  I think he will have better career.  Time will tell and this really is the best contrast in some time.  Maybe ever.

 

This is what I don't understand. Why?? What is it about his college career that makes you say this?  It's completely bewildering to me. 

[Augie]

Can you promise this is the “LAST”? 

 

I don’t want him, but I’ll be happy to eat crow if I’m wrong and he kills it for the Bills. 

[Awwufelloff]

Everyone knows this stuff including the scouts. Browns are going Darnold Jets are going Rosen. Allen is going to fall pretty far. 

[jr1]

[KDIGGZ]

This sums it up:

If Josh Allen succeeds, his GM will have outsmarted basically all regular humans and the entirety of math itself.

 

He could succeed. And I could win the lottery. It could happen but it's highly unlikely!

[26CornerBlitz]

 

Take heed TSW.

[Awwufelloff]

Why do NFL teams get so caught up in QBs who can throw it far? How often do you really bomb it each game? 1-2 times? The top 3 QBS the last decade are not athletic at all. Give me the accurate passer 10/10 times. 

Edited April 25, 2018 by Awwufelloff

[nbbillsfan]

Strange question, but would rather pick Allen at 12 or trade up to get him (perhaps even above other top 4 QBs)?

 

i know it’s strange, but I might be happier/more confident if we traded up to get him and got the sense that he was “our guy” and not just a potential obvious bust we got stuck with.

[jrober38]

Allen is not a good football player. The talk of him going top 5 if completely insane.

 

Give me Mayfield everyday and twice on Sunday. He's the most accurate QB in the draft. 

[Paul Costa]

TRUST THE PROCESS. If Beane takes Allen embrace it if your a true Bills fan ?

[ddaryl]

Allen really needs time ti develop and i dont think mccarron is the qb you develop Allen behind.  New England with Brady woukd be ideal especially if Brady plays thru 2019

 

[/dev/null]

21 minutes ago, Augie said:

Can you promise this is the “LAST”? 

 

I don’t want him, but I’ll be happy to eat crow if I’m wrong and he kills it for the Bills. 

if this is indeed the "last" then the previous would be the penultimate josh allen is a bust thread

 

[KDIGGZ]

2 minutes ago, Paul Costa said:

TRUST THE PROCESS. If Beane takes Allen embrace it if your a true Bills fan ?

Nope I will not blindly trust a rookie gm on his first draft when he may or may not have any idea what a QB looks like. Does that make me less of a bills fan because I watch film, study stats, and trust my own eyes?

[BuffaloBillyG]

Lamar Jackson: NO AGENT 

- He's inconsistent

- He's inaccurate

- Strong arm and athletic

- Can't make progressions

 

Maybe a WR

 

Josh Allen: HAS AGENT

- He's inconsistent

- He's inaccurate

- Strong arm and athletic

- Can't make progressions

 

Biggest upside to anyone in the draft. 

 

There's a reason for that 3% being a value. The way they are presented in the media is the biggest case in point I've ever seen. They have the same flaws by and large...no one is saying Allen would be smart to consider TE.

 

Honestly if I was forced to choose I'd have to pick Jackson as he's at the very least way more of an athlete. Way more dangerous a playmaker. And I really hope we don't end up with Jackson.

[SouthNYfan]

36 minutes ago, jr1 said:

 

Orlovsky sure knows how to spot a bad QB.

He stares a terrible one in the mirror every morning!!

[Jay_Fixit]

I’ll bet my left nut this isn’t the last one.

Edited April 25, 2018 by Jay_Fixit

[HappyDays]

12 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said:

I’ll bet my left nut this isn’t the last one.

 

Imagine if we draft him!

[Mat68]

40 minutes ago, Domdab99 said:

 

This is what I don't understand. Why?? What is it about his college career that makes you say this?  It's completely bewildering to me. 

I have seen Allen make every NFL throw needed.  At his best Allen already does everything you need from a Qb in the NFL.  In College teams usually win by out athleting the other team.  Wyoming did not have the better roster in any game they played in 2017.  He turned around a perenial buttom feeder school and won the most games in 2 years then the school has had in 30 years.  I watch him and I see young Farve.  He could be a bust.  So could any of them.  Give me the guy with the most abilty.  I feel working on his footwork sures up some of his mis fires, and working in a modern offense will grant him the easy completions he went without in college.  As a Bills fan, as much as Allen intrigues me personally, I think Rosen should be the guy because he seems the most ready now.  Outside of Rosen they all have a fair level of molding and coaching.

[Jay_Fixit]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Imagine if we draft him!

Dude...

[JaCrispy]

1 hour ago, Awwufelloff said:

Everyone knows this stuff including the scouts. Browns are going Darnold Jets are going Rosen. Allen is going to fall pretty far. 

All it takes is one team...I just pray to God that team isn’t the Bills 

[Paul Costa]

37 minutes ago, kdiggz said:

Nope I will not blindly trust a rookie gm on his first draft when he may or may not have any idea what a QB looks like. Does that make me less of a bills fan because I watch film, study stats, and trust my own eyes?

No that makes you a arrogant idiot that doesn’t believe in your teams vision. You are a welcome to your opinion like every fan. And that’s what you are a fan like everyone else on this board. Nothing more nothing less ?

[JaCrispy]

8 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Imagine if we draft him!

There will be so many Bills fans booing and other team’s fans laughing in Dallas.

 

I think I would rather have Mason Rudolph at 12 than Josh Allen at 12.

Edited April 25, 2018 by JaCrispy

[KDIGGZ]

4 minutes ago, Paul Costa said:

No that makes you a arrogant idiot that doesn’t believe in your teams vision. You are a welcome to your opinion like every fan. And that’s what you are a fan like everyone else on this board. Nothing more nothing less ?

Sorry, it's been 20 yrs of believing in team visions. I believe in my own vision. I'm not a mindless robot that loves everything my favorite team does. I encourage you to do your own research and form your own opinions

[NewEra]

When I look into his eyes, I don’t see a champion. When I hear him talk, I don’t hear a winner.  This just seems to big for him.  If we take him, hopefully he can grow into it

[Doc Brown]

2 minutes ago, NewEra said:

When I look into his eyes, I don’t see a champion. When I hear him talk, I don’t hear a winner.  This just seems to big for him.  If we take him, hopefully he can grow into it

 You're playing and you think everything is going fine. Then one thing goes wrong. And then another. And another. You try to fight back, but the harder you fight, the deeper you sink. Until you can't move... you can't breathe... because you're in over your head. Like quicksand.

[Paul Costa]

Just now, kdiggz said:

Sorry, it's been 20 yrs of believing in team visions. I believe in my own vision. I'm not a mindless robot that loves everything my favorite team does. I encourage you to do your own research and form your own opinions

I have done my own research and it’s pretty obvious that Brandon Beane knows more about this draft than you and me combined. I have a full time job As a  school teacher. I’m sure you have a profession too. Brandon Beane is our GM and I trust him to do everything in his power to improve our team. He is new to our program and in my opinion has made all the right moves. I trust him more than you. Sorry nothing personal ?

[KDIGGZ]

1 minute ago, Paul Costa said:

I have done my own research and it’s pretty obvious that Brandon Beane knows more about this draft than you and me combined. I have a full time job As a  school teacher. I’m sure you have a profession too. Brandon Beane is our GM and I trust him to do everything in his power to improve our team. He is new to our program and in my opinion has made all the right moves. I trust him more than you. Sorry nothing personal ?

That's fine. I trust myself more than him. We have the same number of drafts under our belts and I played QB for a decade and he played golf. Nothing personal towards him either. Maybe he can spot other positions better than me but I trust my eyes on QB

[BuffaloBillsGospel]

Tom Brady already proved all this BS wrong. If Josh Allen has it set in his mind he wants to be the best QB of all time, he has the arm and legs to do that and the body mold to withstand the beating.

[Domdab99]

45 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said:

I’ll bet my left nut this isn’t the last one.

 

Well, it's MY last one. At least until I start an "I told you so" thread." 

[RFL]

9 minutes ago, BuffaloBillsGospel said:

Tom Brady already proved all this BS wrong. If Josh Allen has it set in his mind he wants to be the best QB of all time, he has the arm and legs to do that and the body mold to withstand the beating.

Marino was the 6th QB off the board in ‘83......what a bust!  

[Domdab99]

29 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

There will be so many Bills fans booing and other team’s fans laughing in Dallas.

 

I think I would rather have Mason Rudolph at 12 than Josh Allen at 12.

 

Yeah, and I'd rather have ball cancer than AIDS

[Paul Costa]

2 minutes ago, kdiggz said:

That's fine. I trust myself more than him. We have the same number of drafts under our belts and I played QB for a decade and he played golf. Nothing personal towards him either. Maybe he can spot other positions better than me but I trust my eyes on QB

I hope Mr. Beane makes all the right moves in the draft like he has so far as Buffalo’s GM. The Pegula’s chose Mr. Beane instead of you. Maybe they were right maybe they will be proven wrong. I’m a Bills fan and try not to criticize them too much . It’s really hard sometimes. My first game was at the Rockpile during OJ’s rookie season. They have had many bad teams over the years. I actually think the program is in really good hands right now. I thank Mr. Wilson and his family for that. I TRUST THE PROCESS and not some guy who said he played Quarterback for 10 years and criticizing the GM . I hope your wrong. Nothing personal ?

[Domdab99]

43 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

I have seen Allen make every NFL throw needed.  At his best Allen already does everything you need from a Qb in the NFL.  In College teams usually win by out athleting the other team.  Wyoming did not have the better roster in any game they played in 2017.  He turned around a perenial buttom feeder school and won the most games in 2 years then the school has had in 30 years.  I watch him and I see young Farve.  He could be a bust.  So could any of them.  Give me the guy with the most abilty.  I feel working on his footwork sures up some of his mis fires, and working in a modern offense will grant him the easy completions he went without in college.  As a Bills fan, as much as Allen intrigues me personally, I think Rosen should be the guy because he seems the most ready now.  Outside of Rosen they all have a fair level of molding and coaching.

 

But the difference is, that all the other guys have shown it in college. Allen has not. He's all potential and no resume. The guy has fewer pass attempts in his college career than Rosen, Darnold, and Mayfield have pass completions.

 

Did you even read the link in my OP? Or any of the stuff I posted from it? Just, "He looks like a QB?" 

[ddaryl]

It will suck if Allen turns out to be that 1 in a 100 that actually makes it and all the anti Allens have to watch him on another team for 15 years while the chorus of told you so ring continually 

 

 

Edited April 25, 2018 by ddaryl

[Domdab99]

14 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

It will suck if Allen turns out to be that 1 in a 100 that actually makes it and all the anti Allens have to watch him on another team for 15 years while the chorus of told you so ring continually 

 

 

 

I'll survive. 

 

It will suck more to draft him and he's exactly what we think he is. 

[ddaryl]

28 minutes ago, Domdab99 said:

 

I'll survive. 

 

It will suck more to draft him and he's exactly what we think he is. 

 

 

That is the fear. We cannot afford to much risk 

Edited April 25, 2018 by ddaryl