What it costs to move up

[maryland-bills-fan]

The draft-value-chart is an old Dallas Cowboy chart that is supposed to tell the chances of getting a starting QB from picks in the draft. Recent analysis of it shows it shows costs to be higher than practice but it is okay to use as an approximation. Recently, the Jets made a trade up from #6 to #3. They seem to have overpaid, but I am going to take the assumption that they have reset the market for moving up high in the draft for this year. They overspent by 25%. Their 1^st pick, their two second round picks and next year's probably 2^nd round pick (picks a year ahead are discounted by 50%) shows as: 1600+ 530+ 410+ 215(?)= 2750 points for a 2200 point spot..... 100x 2750/2200= 125%. In the workup below, the price of a draft spot is calculated as 1.25x the draft value chart value.

 

The Bills have the following to spend for a trade up this year.

 

Pick.............. value..........running sum

 

12 ...............1200 ..................1200

23 ................760 ...................1960

53............... 370.................... 2330

56................ 340................... 2670

65 ...............265 ...................2935

96 ...............116 ...................3051

117............. 60 .....................3111

 

2019 picks??  finish in 16th place ??  Discount at 50%?

1st rounder......................500 points

2nd rounder....................220 points

 

====================================================================

 

Here is a list of the pick, the 125% price and which picks the Bills would likely give up for that pick

 

team.....................pick..........price................... picks given up

================================================================

Browns.................. 1 ............3750................... whole draft + 2019 1^st round

 

Cowboys ...............2........... 3250....................... whole draft + 2019 2^nd round

 

Jets..................... 3................ ????........................ yea, right.

                                                                                  1st round            2nd round                  3rd round                        4th round

 

Browns................. 4............ 2250...................... 12, 22,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 56           ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,                 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

 

Denver.................. 5............. 2125 ......................12, 22,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 53        ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,                  ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,              

 

Colts (jets)........... 6.............. 2000....................... 12, 22 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,            ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,                   ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 117

 

Bucks.................... 7............. 1875 .......................12,      ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 53, 56 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,                  ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

 

Bears...................... 8 ............1750....................... 12       ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 53       ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 96             ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 117

 

49ers...................... 9........... 1690........................ 12       ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,53        ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,                  ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 117

 

Raiders.................. 10.......... 1625......................... 12       ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,        56 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,                   ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 117

 

fish 11

 

=======================================================================================

Okay I consider that pick 1 and 2 are out of reach. (Sorry for all you Mike Dika fans). We can not give up the entire draft and one of the two top picks from next year as well. We only squeeked into the playoffs and we traded a good number of starters recently. A depleted roster for the next 3 years and God for QB is not going to cut it. The Jets are not going to trade with us, since they moved up for a QB.

 

At that point in the draft there will be one or two of the top 4 QB's left and we are looking at trading up with the Browns, Broncos or Colts. (Yes we can afford those trades and give up two firsts and a second round pick. That would still leave us with a 2^nd round pick for this year and nothing lost from 2019. ) The Browns have a LOT of picks this year and may not be interested in trading down because there I some special player, like a DE or RB that they want to pick. Even if we overpay beyond the extra 25% listed. The you add that that the Broncos and Colts both have aging starting QB's and might take a QB themselves. All three of them might get a better trade offer from another team and then all 4 top QB's are off the board.

 

So what happens  lies outside of our control. The Browns and Jets will take QB's. The Browns have plenty of draft picks and will probably take a RB at #4 rather than trade with us. If the Giants take a QB we are probably shut out of the top 4 QB's as the 4^th QB would have to get by the Colts and Broncos. (They can easily trade with one another). If they don't do that, then we could target the Bucs or Bears to beat out the Fish for Mr. #4 QB and also not pay through the nose. And if all are gone, well, then we have to decide on a MLB at #12 or trading down and taking a QB at #22 or in the second round for this year.

 

Edited April 5, 2018 by maryland-bills-fan

[DFT]

About three fitty...

[KDIGGZ]

2 minutes ago, DFT said:

About three fitty...

I got a coupon 

[ddaryl]

Buy 1 get 1 free sale, but act now

[BuffaloBillyG]

BOGO Cheese anyone?

[row_33]

because what we can take a pound of sawdust from past drafts and spin it into gold

 

 

[Seanbillsfan2206]

I really thought the time between free agency and the draft was going to fly by. Boy was I wrong. This is taking forrrreevvvvvverrrrr...

[DrDawkinstein]

Good lord, when do you go back to school?

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Crusade much?

 

[racketmaster]

I’m at the point where I don’t care if the Bills give up all of their picks this year for #2, if it is Sam Darnold. He’s the apple of the Bills eye and who will care about those 2nd and 3rd round picks 5-10 years later. If you think he is the guy who can be here for the next 15 years, there will be plenty of future drafts to build around him. 

[BillsVet]

[maryland-bills-fan]

13 minutes ago, racketmaster said:

I’m at the point where I don’t care if the Bills give up all of their picks this year for #2, if it is Sam Darnold. He’s the apple of the Bills eye and who will care about those 2nd and 3rd round picks 5-10 years later. If you think he is the guy who can be here for the next 15 years, there will be plenty of future drafts to build around him. 

 Yes, it would cost this entire draft (with those extra 3 players in the first 3 rounds) and next year's 2nd round pick. The wide receivers would scare nobody.  We have only one starting type linebacker and the offensive line is old and might completely implode.  It would be ugly football for at least the next two years.   I wonder if the city and if a NFL team in the city could stand that.

[4merper4mer]

29 minutes ago, joesixpack said:

Crusade much?

 

The waaaaaaaaahhhhhh I want a QB crowd doesn't like math much so they Alinsky people talking about it.  I never saw you as a commie.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, 4merper4mer said:

The waaaaaaaaahhhhhh I want a QB crowd doesn't like math much so they Alinsky people talking about it.  I never saw you as a commie.

 

 

love u too bb

 

[Putin]

1 hour ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

The draft-value-chart is an old Dallas Cowboy chart that is supposed to tell the chances of getting a starting QB from picks in the draft. Recent analysis of it shows it shows costs to be higher than practice but it is okay to use as an approximation. Recently, the Jets made a trade up from #6 to #3. They seem to have overpaid, but I am going to take the assumption that they have reset the market for moving up high in the draft for this year. They overspent by 25%. Their 1^st pick, their two second round picks and next year's probably 2^nd round pick (picks a year ahead are discounted by 50%) shows as: 1600+ 530+ 410+ 215(?)= 2750 points for a 2200 point spot..... 100x 2750/2200= 125%. In the workup below, the price of a draft spot is calculated as 1.25x the draft value chart value.

 

The Bills have the following to spend for a trade up this year.

 

Pick.............. value..........running sum

 

12 ...............1200 ..................1200

23 ................760 ...................1960

53............... 370.................... 2330

56................ 340................... 2670

65 ...............265 ...................2935

96 ...............116 ...................3051

117............. 60 .....................3111

 

2019 picks??  finish in 16th place ??  Discount at 50%?

1st rounder......................500 points

2nd rounder....................220 points

 

====================================================================

 

Here is a list of the pick, the 125% price and which picks the Bills would likely give up for that pick

 

team.....................pick..........price................... picks given up

================================================================

Browns.................. 1 ............3750................... whole draft + 2019 1^st round

 

Cowboys ...............2........... 3250....................... whole draft + 2019 2^nd round

 

Jets..................... 3................ ????........................ yea, right.

                                                                                  1st round            2nd round                  3rd round                        4th round

 

Browns................. 4............ 2250...................... 12, 22,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 56           ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,                 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

 

Denver.................. 5............. 2125 ......................12, 22,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 53        ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,                  ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,              

 

Colts (jets)........... 6.............. 2000....................... 12, 22 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,            ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,                   ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 117

 

Bucks.................... 7............. 1875 .......................12,      ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 53, 56 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,                  ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

 

Bears...................... 8 ............1750....................... 12       ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 53       ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 96             ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 117

 

49ers...................... 9........... 1690........................ 12       ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,53        ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,                  ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 117

 

Raiders.................. 10.......... 1625......................... 12       ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,        56 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,                   ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 117

 

fish 11

 

=======================================================================================

Okay I consider that pick 1 and 2 are out of reach. (Sorry for all you Mike Dika fans). We can not give up the entire draft and one of the two top picks from next year as well. We only squeeked into the playoffs and we traded a good number of starters recently. A depleted roster for the next 3 years and God for QB is not going to cut it. The Jets are not going to trade with us, since they moved up for a QB.

 

At that point in the draft there will be one or two of the top 4 QB's left and we are looking at trading up with the Browns, Broncos or Colts. (Yes we can afford those trades and give up two firsts and a second round pick. That would still leave us with a 2^nd round pick for this year and nothing lost from 2019. ) The Browns have a LOT of picks this year and may not be interested in trading down because there I some special player, like a DE or RB that they want to pick. Even if we overpay beyond the extra 25% listed. The you add that that the Broncos and Colts both have aging starting QB's and might take a QB themselves. All three of them might get a better trade offer from another team and then all 4 top QB's are off the board.

 

So what happens  lies outside of our control. The Browns and Jets will take QB's. The Browns have plenty of draft picks and will probably take a RB at #4 rather than trade with us. If the Giants take a QB we are probably shut out of the top 4 QB's as the 4^th QB would have to get by the Colts and Broncos. (They can easily trade with one another). If they don't do that, then we could target the Bucs or Bears to beat out the Fish for Mr. #4 QB and also not pay through the nose. And if all are gone, well, then we have to decide on a MLB at #12 or trading down and taking a QB at #22 or in the second round for this year.

 

It’s good that you brought up the Jets at #3 

not me or anyone else here for that matter even thought about the  possibility of making a deal with the Jets ,  who knows since we’re in the same division we could even get a discount to move up !!!

[maryland-bills-fan]

Just now, Putin said:

It’s good that you brought up the Jets at #3 

not me or anyone else here for that matter even thought about the  possibility of making a deal with the Jets ,  who knows since we’re in the same division we could even get a discount to move up !!!

I hear they would throw in a bushel basket of footballs as well.

[slaphappy]

13 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

The waaaaaaaaahhhhhh I want a QB crowd doesn't like math much so they Alinsky people talking about it.  I never saw you as a commie.

You have no idea how excited I am that we can call people commie on here.

[maryland-bills-fan]

54 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Good lord, when do you go back to school?

  Naw I'm finished with school.   Why is it so terrible to actually use grammar school addition to see if it makes sense to trade up into the top 4?  So many of the early posters on this thread are acting like middle school teenage girls.

[RochesterRob]

4 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

  Naw I'm finished with school.   Why is it so terrible to actually use grammar school addition to see if it makes sense to trade up into the top 4?  So many of the early posters on this thread are acting like middle school teenage girls.

  Denial is one heck of a drug for the trade up at all costs crowd.  I could see some of these people dispensing advice to other people on important life matters while their own lives are a tire fire.  The Colts pick at 6 given your price would be very tempting IF the Bills were 100 percent convinced that was their guy.  Any doubts and walk away from doing it.  The Manziel thread makes me think that there is all too often a wishful thinking stance teams take with top problematic prospects in that they expect a person to change their life long ways even thinking that money will now be the carrot.  I've seen too many down here in everyday America throw away money and marriage because they could not learn self control and self discipline.  I've seen too many people in a marriage think that they can change their partner and that certainly happens less than 50 percent of the time.

[Wayne Cubed]

Just want to point out the Bills have pick 22... not 23.

 

Carry on.

[DefenseWins]

43 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

 Yes, it would cost this entire draft (with those extra 3 players in the first 3 rounds) and next year's 2nd round pick. The wide receivers would scare nobody.  We have only one starting type linebacker and the offensive line is old and might completely implode.  It would be ugly football for at least the next two years.   I wonder if the city and if a NFL team in the city could stand that.

 

Yeah, the last 20 years have been SO WONDERFUL... Like we could never stand more awful football for a couple more years (assuming your prognostications were, you know, actually true)...

[26CornerBlitz]

[maryland-bills-fan]

1 minute ago, DefenseWins said:

 

Yeah, the last 20 years have been SO WONDERFUL... Like we could never stand more awful football for a couple more years (assuming your prognostications were, you know, actually true)...

  Well in my neck of the woods people were happy to see the Bills actually get into the playoffs this year.  I'm afraid that after a taste of success, 2-3 years of miserable football might be fatal.   Remember there are number of big cities out west without teams.

[RochesterRob]

2 minutes ago, DefenseWins said:

 

Yeah, the last 20 years have been SO WONDERFUL... Like we could never stand more awful football for a couple more years (assuming your prognostications were, you know, actually true)...

  Why does it have to be awful if we don't reach on a QB this month.  We still have considerable cap room for next year and if we have all our picks we could trade for a player next year.  This may not have been likely under Ralph and Buddy but I think Beane is watching other teams with that possibility in mind.

[racketmaster]

56 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

 Yes, it would cost this entire draft (with those extra 3 players in the first 3 rounds) and next year's 2nd round pick. The wide receivers would scare nobody.  We have only one starting type linebacker and the offensive line is old and might completely implode.  It would be ugly football for at least the next two years.   I wonder if the city and if a NFL team in the city could stand that.

I totally understand your point of view and agree we would not be a very good team next year. But it is more important to get the qb position right. If the team believes Darnold is the best fit then pay the price. It will hurt but the team broke the playoff drought so there could be a little more patience from fan base. Plus, bills will be in much better shape with the cap next year and they may be able to plug a bunch of holes with solid free agent signings like Poyer and Hyde. 

 

Think of it this way, you need to buy a pair of running shoes. You try on a pair that fits you just right but they are really expensive. You are an avid runner and really need good shoes. You see a few less expensive pairs but they don’t fit as well. You could buy the cheaper pair but end up looking for another shoe a few weeks later because you are not happy. 

 

If possible (may not even be an option), Bills might want to just bite the bullet and go with the qb they feel most comfortable with because of the importance of the position. 

Edited April 5, 2018 by racketmaster

[BillsCelticsAngelsBama]

15 minutes ago, Wayne Cubed said:

Just want to point out the Bills have pick 22... not 23.

 

Carry on.

And do the Cowboys have the second pick ?

[Tenhigh]

23 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

  Well in my neck of the woods people were happy to see the Bills actually get into the playoffs this year.  I'm afraid that after a taste of success, 2-3 years of miserable football might be fatal.   Remember there are number of big cities out west without teams.

So Maryland fans are going to force Tpegs to move the team out west?  It's puff puff GIVE, not puff puff puff puff puff puff puff puff.

[Mat68]

2 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

The draft-value-chart is an old Dallas Cowboy chart that is supposed to tell the chances of getting a starting QB from picks in the draft. Recent analysis of it shows it shows costs to be higher than practice but it is okay to use as an approximation. Recently, the Jets made a trade up from #6 to #3. They seem to have overpaid, but I am going to take the assumption that they have reset the market for moving up high in the draft for this year. They overspent by 25%. Their 1^st pick, their two second round picks and next year's probably 2^nd round pick (picks a year ahead are discounted by 50%) shows as: 1600+ 530+ 410+ 215(?)= 2750 points for a 2200 point spot..... 100x 2750/2200= 125%. In the workup below, the price of a draft spot is calculated as 1.25x the draft value chart value.

 

The Bills have the following to spend for a trade up this year.

 

Pick.............. value..........running sum

 

12 ...............1200 ..................1200

23 ................760 ...................1960

53............... 370.................... 2330

56................ 340................... 2670

65 ...............265 ...................2935

96 ...............116 ...................3051

117............. 60 .....................3111

 

2019 picks??  finish in 16th place ??  Discount at 50%?

1st rounder......................500 points

2nd rounder....................220 points

 

====================================================================

 

Here is a list of the pick, the 125% price and which picks the Bills would likely give up for that pick

 

team.....................pick..........price................... picks given up

================================================================

Browns.................. 1 ............3750................... whole draft + 2019 1^st round

 

Cowboys ...............2........... 3250....................... whole draft + 2019 2^nd round

 

Jets..................... 3................ ????........................ yea, right.

                                                                                  1st round            2nd round                  3rd round                        4th round

 

Browns................. 4............ 2250...................... 12, 22,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 56           ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,                 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

 

Denver.................. 5............. 2125 ......................12, 22,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 53        ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,                  ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,              

 

Colts (jets)........... 6.............. 2000....................... 12, 22 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,            ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,                   ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 117

 

Bucks.................... 7............. 1875 .......................12,      ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 53, 56 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,                  ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

 

Bears...................... 8 ............1750....................... 12       ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 53       ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 96             ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 117

 

49ers...................... 9........... 1690........................ 12       ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,53        ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,                  ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 117

 

Raiders.................. 10.......... 1625......................... 12       ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,        56 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,                   ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 117

 

fish 11

 

=======================================================================================

Okay I consider that pick 1 and 2 are out of reach. (Sorry for all you Mike Dika fans). We can not give up the entire draft and one of the two top picks from next year as well. We only squeeked into the playoffs and we traded a good number of starters recently. A depleted roster for the next 3 years and God for QB is not going to cut it. The Jets are not going to trade with us, since they moved up for a QB.

 

At that point in the draft there will be one or two of the top 4 QB's left and we are looking at trading up with the Browns, Broncos or Colts. (Yes we can afford those trades and give up two firsts and a second round pick. That would still leave us with a 2^nd round pick for this year and nothing lost from 2019. ) The Browns have a LOT of picks this year and may not be interested in trading down because there I some special player, like a DE or RB that they want to pick. Even if we overpay beyond the extra 25% listed. The you add that that the Broncos and Colts both have aging starting QB's and might take a QB themselves. All three of them might get a better trade offer from another team and then all 4 top QB's are off the board.

 

So what happens  lies outside of our control. The Browns and Jets will take QB's. The Browns have plenty of draft picks and will probably take a RB at #4 rather than trade with us. If the Giants take a QB we are probably shut out of the top 4 QB's as the 4^th QB would have to get by the Colts and Broncos. (They can easily trade with one another). If they don't do that, then we could target the Bucs or Bears to beat out the Fish for Mr. #4 QB and also not pay through the nose. And if all are gone, well, then we have to decide on a MLB at #12 or trading down and taking a QB at #22 or in the second round for this year.

 

 

12, 22, 53, 65 and 2019 1st and swap of mid rd picks get it done for NYG.  If the Giants want to trade out they will do it for 3 1st a 2nd and 3rd.  That is the most they will receive.  That is not a Ditka for Ricky Williams move.  Buffalo would have 2, 56, 96 so a Qb than a second and third.  The only variable is NYG willingness to trade.  By moving JPP they seem to be rebuilding so a move down for would seem realistic.  To me the only reason they have been collecting these picks was to use them to select a Qb that would have been otherwise out of reach.  If Buffalo does not land 1 of the top 5 Qbs many including me would rate the draft a disappointment and would officially start the clock on Beane and Mcdermotts careers in Buffalo.

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

  Naw I'm finished with school.   Why is it so terrible to actually use grammar school addition to see if it makes sense to trade up into the top 4?  So many of the early posters on this thread are acting like middle school teenage girls.

 

Maybe because you pumped out two threads on this same topic already this morning....

Edited April 5, 2018 by Mr. WEO

[DrDawkinstein]

10 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Maybe because you pumped out two threads on this same topic already this morning....

 

And a few yesterday too. All the same, rehashed blather.

[DefenseWins]

Interesting that the McShay article mentions the trade getting done with the Giants for Picks #12, #22 and #53 only which is significantly less than the OP specifies...

 

https://nesn.com/2018/04/nfl-rumors-giants-trading-no-2-draft-pick-to-bills-could-happen/

 

 

[LabattBlue]

A draft pick value chart?  I've never heard of such a thing.  What a great idea!

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, DefenseWins said:

Interesting that the McShay article mentions the trade getting done with the Giants for Picks #12, #22 and #53 only which is significantly less than the OP specifies...

 

https://nesn.com/2018/04/nfl-rumors-giants-trading-no-2-draft-pick-to-bills-could-happen/

 

 

I can't see 2 going for so little after the Jets inflated the price of moving up.

[DefenseWins]

5 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I can't see 2 going for so little after the Jets inflated the price of moving up.

 

I tend to agree with you. However I also don't think that the cost will be as high as the OP suggests either. I think it likely that the final price lies somewhere in between. And we won't know that until the trade would actually be announced. (assuming that it happens)

 

I also don't totally discount the possibility that a current Bills player could be involved in the final deal. Again we'll have to wait and see...

Edited April 5, 2018 by DefenseWins

[Dr. Who]

Just now, DefenseWins said:

 

I tend to agree with you. However I also don't think that the cost will be as high as the OP suggestions either. I think it likely that the final price lies somewhere in between. And we won't know that until the trade would actually be announced. (assuming that it happens)

 

I also don't totally discount the possibility that a current Bills player could be involved in the final deal. Again we'll have to wait and see...

OP has an agenda I don't agree with.  Gunner seems to think there is already a deal in place with the Giants, perhaps contingent on who the Browns take at 1.  A price "somewhere in between" is most plausible.

[maryland-bills-fan]

I can't see the #2 pick going for our two firsts and the higher second round pick.

That would be 1200 + 780 + 370=  2350 point for a 2600 point pick.  250 points UNDER.

 

The jets used 1600 + 530  + 410 + next year's 2nd round=  2540 + {2019 2nd round} for a 2600 point pick.

If they come in at #15 next year (placing as the 17th best record) and we use a 50% discount, the jets are spending 2750 for a 2600 point pick.

That is 150 points over, rather than 250 points under. 

 

If the Giants are giving us a discount, it would be very nice.  If the Giants just need our two firsts and two seconds, you can twist my arm.   If the jets are setting a new standard, I think it will cost too much.

 

[DefenseWins]

 

Interestingly, Shannon and Skip are talking about New England making the same kind of pick expensive deal that we have all been discussing here for the Bills... I haven't heard them b**ching about the COST of moving up...

 

 

[maryland-bills-fan]

5 hours ago, Mat68 said:

 

12, 22, 53, 65 and 2019 1st and swap of mid rd picks get it done for NYG.  If the Giants want to trade out they will do it for 3 1st a 2nd and 3rd.  That is the most they will receive.  That is not a Ditka for Ricky Williams move.  Buffalo would have 2, 56, 96 so a Qb than a second and third.  The only variable is NYG willingness to trade.  By moving JPP they seem to be rebuilding so a move down for would seem realistic.  To me the only reason they have been collecting these picks was to use them to select a Qb that would have been otherwise out of reach.  If Buffalo does not land 1 of the top 5 Qbs many including me would rate the draft a disappointment and would officially start the clock on Beane and Mcdermotts careers in Buffalo.

That is probably 5 players at other positions.  Who is going to play linebacker, wider receiver and offensive line?

1 hour ago, DefenseWins said:

 

Interestingly, Shannon and Skip are talking about New England making the same kind of pick expensive deal that we have all been discussing here for the Bills... I haven't heard them b**ching about the COST of moving up...

 

 

Really?   The Pats have picks 23 & 31,,,,,,,43 & 63,,,,,,,& 95.   That is 760 & 600,,,,,,470 & 276,,,,,,,and 120 points.  That is 226 points enought ot move up to 3rd.  If the 25% premium cost (set by the Jets?) is in place, that is enough to get them the #4 pick. 

[Mat68]

37 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

That is probably 5 players at other positions.  Who is going to play linebacker, wider receiver and offensive line?

Linebaker and Wr 2nd and 3rd.  Depth the rest of the way.  Imo Qb and Linebaker are the must finds in this draft class.  For a shot at one of the best Qb prospects I would be ok taking a lesser prospect at linebaker.  After that trade Buffalo stil has a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. You get a franchise qb, a linebaker and a wr to take the top off coverage and its a win.

Edited April 5, 2018 by Mat68

[maryland-bills-fan]

53 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Linebaker and Wr 2nd and 3rd.  Depth the rest of the way.  Imo Qb and Linebaker are the must finds in this draft class.  For a shot at one of the best Qb prospects I would be ok taking a lesser prospect at linebaker.  After that trade Buffalo stil has a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. You get a franchise qb, a linebaker and a wr to take the top off coverage and its a win.

Yes, that is the best you could do.  But imagine what you could have done for those positions with those 2 first and 2 second round picks !   Somehow I feel that Beane and company are NOT going to spend anything more on wide receiver.  There are a lot of seasoned veteran WR's looking for work. They have known NFL abilities and they might clobber together several one-trick ponies and shuffle these guys in and out of the lineup.