RUMOR: Browns to take Wyoming QB Josh Allen #1 Overall per Peter King

[Royale with Cheese]

15 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

I've done it several times in the past and have almost always been right. 

 

I hated Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker, Paxton Lynch, Christian Hackenberg, Blake Bortles, the entire 2013 QB Class, Jimmy Clausen, etc. 

 

All those guys, like Allen, were mediocre college QBs who were over drafted because they looked like Franchise QBs. 

 

As I've said numerous times, I think Josh Allen is going to be a colossal bust. 

 

Not to get into this argument but a lot of people had those guys not succeeding in the NFL.  

[JohnC]

1 minute ago, Chuck Wagon said:

 

 

Completely agree.  He's not #1 on my board.  I wouldn't take him #1.  But I don't think he's a clear #4 by miles like some seem to believe.  Baker's play style (and frankly personality) give me as much pause as Allen does. Ultimately any of the 4 have more potential than any QB we've had in the building in decades.

Rest assured that if the Bills draft Allen the snickering will turn into how our fortunes have turned with his unexpected availability. I agree with you that any of the top four qbs, and even a couple of the second tier prospects, would be a major upgrade from what we have had at that position for a generation. 

 

What is really intriguing about this qb class is that each player has a different skill set. And yet each qb is capable of being a franchise qb (at different development rates) for an organization that hasn't had one in a long time. There are no guarantees but if this draft works out as hoped for we will finally accomplish something that prior regimes haven't come close to accomplishing in the never ending quest for a main-stay qb.  

[thebandit27]

3 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Not to get into this argument but a lot of people had those guys not succeeding in the NFL.  

 

Indeed...just like everyone and their brother apparently had Russell Wilson as not only a 1st round pick, but the guy that should've been taken #1 overall over Andrew Luck

[jrober38]

5 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Please.

 

We've all been right/wrong about prospects in the past.  A guy isn't a 4th-round caliber player just because you think he is, and even if you believe him to be a very likely bust, then calling him a 4th-round caliber player is incongruous to that sentiment.  If he's got as limited a chance to play in this league as you have tirelessly professed, then he's not worth drafting.

 

Why take a doomed prospect in the 4th round, especially if you're always right about these things (which I'd welcome any links to previous evaluations that prove your respective genius on such matters)?  Congrats on outsmarting the football-watching world on that cast of characters by the way, nobody else called that

 

All my stuff was over on the Bills Message Board. There are definitely people here who can vouch for my claims. 

 

Pretty much every year I pick a guy who is a first rounder who I think is garbage. They usually go in round 1 and they've all been busts. 

 

I don't think there's a single QB I was critical of who has turned into a decent player (the averages obviously work in my favour so I'm not tooting my horn).

 

I maintain it's really hard to find a QB, and I think it's hilarious how every year people go to great lengths to make excuses for players who have next to no hope of becoming an NFL Franchise QB. 

5 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Not to get into this argument but a lot of people had those guys not succeeding in the NFL.  

 

Sure. But a lot on the old Bills' Board wanted them with our first round pick the year they were available. 

 

Some people loved Gabbert, some loved Barkley, lots loved Jimmy Clausen. All are enormous busts. 

[thebandit27]

Just now, jrober38 said:

 

All my stuff was over on the Bills Message Board. There are definitely people here who can vouch for my claims. 

 

Pretty much every year I pick a guy who is a first rounder who I think is garbage. They usually go in round 1 and they've all been busts. 

 

I don't think there's a single QB I was critical of who has turned into a decent player (the averages obviously work in my favour so I'm not tooting my horn).

 

I maintain it's really hard to find a QB, and I think it's hilarious how every year people go to great lengths to make excuses for players who have next to no hope of becoming an NFL Franchise QB. 

 

So basically you're never wrong?  Good to know.

 

As for the bold, if that's what you think I am saying about Allen, then you've confirmed my suspicion that you haven't been paying attention

[jrober38]

3 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

So basically you're never wrong?  Good to know.

 

As for the bold, if that's what you think I am saying about Allen, then you've confirmed my suspicion that you haven't been paying attention

 

I've been wrong about a few guys I liked. 

 

If you just assume that nearly every QB is going to be terrible, and grade them on a really tough scale, you'll wind up being right way more than you're wrong.

 

It's really hard to find a good QB. Generally they're the guys who dominated college football while they were there, like Baker Mayfield. The other guys all represent considerably risk in my eyes. 

[Royale with Cheese]

12 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

All my stuff was over on the Bills Message Board. There are definitely people here who can vouch for my claims. 

 

Pretty much every year I pick a guy who is a first rounder who I think is garbage. They usually go in round 1 and they've all been busts. 

 

I don't think there's a single QB I was critical of who has turned into a decent player (the averages obviously work in my favour so I'm not tooting my horn).

 

I maintain it's really hard to find a QB, and I think it's hilarious how every year people go to great lengths to make excuses for players who have next to no hope of becoming an NFL Franchise QB. 

 

Sure. But a lot on the old Bills' Board wanted them with our first round pick the year they were available. 

 

Some people loved Gabbert, some loved Barkley, lots loved Jimmy Clausen. All are enormous busts. 

 

Which is true but I think some people, especially on a message board, just fall in love with someone.

Barkley was a 4th round pick....I wouldn't call that an enormous bust. 

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

If you just assume that nearly every QB is going to be terrible, and grade them on a really tough scale, you'll wind up being right way more than you're wrong.

 

 

Gee, ya think?

 

You seem to confuse draft value with the potential for a QB to succeed.  QBs should, IMO, always get pushed up the board due to positional value.  If you get it right on a QB, he's going to be at least twice as valuable as any other position you might get right on draft day.  On that fact alone, any QB that has a shot to be a long-term franchise guy should be a first-round pick.  Absent that, a QB that has a shot to be a short-term answer that leads to a potential playoff run should be a day 2 guy.  What's left--the potential long-term backups--are day 3 guys.

 

4 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

It's really hard to find a good QB. Generally they're the guys who dominated college football while they were there, like Baker Mayfield. The other guys all represent considerably risk in my eyes. 

 

I don't think that's true.  Would you say that guys like Manziel and RG3 were good QBs? They both utterly dominated college football--at least as much as guys like Jared Goff and Andrew Luck.

 

Every QB is a risk.  You don't know how well they're going to pick up an NFL offense, how hard they're going to work once they've been paid a life-changing amount of money, how well they're going to bounce back from both minor and major injuries, how well they're going to mesh with your locker room and coaches, etc. etc. etc.

[FearLess Price]

 

Browns are probobly taking Darnold at #1. They got Tyrod for a few years to groom him. 

 

The Allen talk is a smoke screen, he is def not our target because hes another project qb and we have one of those already. 

 

OBD is def trading up for Darnold, Rosen or Mayfield.

If they can't, i see them taking Mason Rudolph. 

[Mat68]

In the age of spread offenses, o step drops, and quick screens, Allen played his college career without any of that.  Allen is obviously a risk.  If he is able to sit and develop he can be special.  Cleveland traded for Taylor so they can compete this year.  Whoever they pick will have a difficult time beating out Taylor because of everything he bring to the team.  Allen has made the most pro level throws and has the most impressive tape than any other prospects.  He makes 3 to 4 throws a game only 1 or 2 Qbs in the NFL could make.  That is what is going to get him drafted and early.  The NFL is filled with cocky/ arrogant coaches and they all believe they are the guys who can get all that potential out of him.  For Allen this is where having an agent paid off.  Without getting coached by a team he already started working on his inconsistencies that lead to inaccuracy.  Apparently, he is a smart kid who knows football and killed the interviews.  Reason I bring up the agents and off the field stuff with him is because I believe Allen and Jackson have the most potential.  Seems like Allen is willing and listening to the right people that are putting him in position to reach his potential.  With Jackson I am highly concerned. If he went to a combine prep academy and hitched onto a QB guru to fix some of his short coming he would have the hype of Allen but with superior production. He would have been a no doubter. The only things about Jackson since Christmas has been negative.  Any Qb or first rd pick is risky.  Picking #1 who has the most ability to become great?  Allen is in that conversation.  

[jrober38]

4 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Which is true but I think some people, especially on a message board, just fall in love with someone.

Barkley was a 4th round pick....I wouldn't call that an enormous bust. 

 

There are a won of Bills fans who wanted him with the 8th overall pick in that draft. 

3 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Gee, ya think?

 

You seem to confuse draft value with the potential for a QB to succeed.  QBs should, IMO, always get pushed up the board due to positional value.  If you get it right on a QB, he's going to be at least twice as valuable as any other position you might get right on draft day.  On that fact alone, any QB that has a shot to be a long-term franchise guy should be a first-round pick.  Absent that, a QB that has a shot to be a short-term answer that leads to a potential playoff run should be a day 2 guy.  What's left--the potential long-term backups--are day 3 guys.

 

 

I don't think that's true.  Would you say that guys like Manziel and RG3 were good QBs? They both utterly dominated college football--at least as much as guys like Jared Goff and Andrew Luck.

 

Every QB is a risk.  You don't know how well they're going to pick up an NFL offense, how hard they're going to work once they've been paid a life-changing amount of money, how well they're going to bounce back from both minor and major injuries, how well they're going to mesh with your locker room and coaches, etc. etc. etc.

 

The key word was "generally". 

 

Bottom line is there is no history of success for guys being successful over the past 15 years who weren't elite college QBs. 

[Mat68]

Just now, FearLess Price said:

 

Browns are probobly taking Darnold at #1. They got Tyrod for a few years to groom him. 

 

The Allen talk is a smoke screen, he is def not our target because hes another project qb and we have one of those already. 

 

OBD is def trading up for Darnold, Rosen or Mayfield.

If they can't, i see them taking Mason Rudolph. 

Who does Cleveland have to smoke out?  They pick one.  The reason the first picks usually gets leaked because they have no one to deceive.  Once they figure out who they want at 1 they move onto to 4 where that is a position they would leak mis-information.

[HappyDays]

29 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

calling him a 4th-round caliber player is incongruous to that sentiment.  If he's got as limited a chance to play in this league as you have tirelessly professed, then he's not worth drafting.

 

I don't understand this logic. Anyone drafted in the 4th round has a long shot of making it. That's exactly where you start taking projects. I personally wouldn't draft anyone in the first 3 rounds that I didn't feel confident about starting at some point in their rookie season. Taking a player in the 1st round that you know isn't going to be ready for a couple years at minimum is nuts.

[Royale with Cheese]

1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

There are a won of Bills fans who wanted him with the 8th overall pick in that draft. 

 

The key word was "generally". 

 

Bottom line is there is no history of success for guys being successful over the past 15 years who weren't elite college QBs. 

 

Yes but that doesn't determine whether or not he's a enormous bust or not.  A mid round pick isn't a massive bust.  

Enormous busts are Jamarcus Russell and Ryan Leaf.  They aren't in the same bust category as a 4th rounder.  

[thebandit27]

2 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

The key word was "generally". 

 

Bottom line is there is no history of success for guys being successful over the past 15 years who weren't elite college QBs. 

 

Actually, it depends upon how you define "successful".

 

Ryan Tannehill has been a 6-year stater for Miami and taken them to the playoffs, and he wasn't elite in college.

Joe Flacco lost his job at Pitt to Tyler Palko, and wasn't anything approaching elite at Delaware (he had a good Senior year and that was it), and he has carved out a 10-year career with a Super Bowl championship.

Matt Ryan threw for less than 3k yards as a JR with a YPA below 7.0; he then threw for 4,500 yards with a sub-60% completion rate and a YPA below 7.0 as a SR.  Not elite at all.

 

I could keep going, but your assertion is not exactly supported here.

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I don't understand this logic. Anyone drafted in the 4th round has a long shot of making it. That's exactly where you start taking projects. I personally wouldn't draft anyone in the first 3 rounds that I didn't feel confident about starting at some point in their rookie season. Taking a player in the 1st round that you know isn't going to be ready for a couple years at minimum is nuts.

 

I explained my thought process:

 

"You seem to confuse draft value with the potential for a QB to succeed.  QBs should, IMO, always get pushed up the board due to positional value.  If you get it right on a QB, he's going to be at least twice as valuable as any other position you might get right on draft day.  On that fact alone, any QB that has a shot to be a long-term franchise guy should be a first-round pick.  Absent that, a QB that has a shot to be a short-term answer that leads to a potential playoff run should be a day 2 guy.  What's left--the potential long-term backups--are day 3 guys."

[HappyDays]

26 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Indeed...just like everyone and their brother apparently had Russell Wilson as not only a 1st round pick, but the guy that should've been taken #1 overall over Andrew Luck

 

I can vouch for jrober on this. Back to the old Bill's message board days he has been vocal about not liking that style of QB. It's one of the easiest things to predict in the NFL because every year there's a QB with nothing but raw physical talent that gets overdrafted and ultimately busts.

[Jay_Fixit]

Some of you are giving jrober a tough time here but his formula (his formula is using his eyes) is pretty good.

 

It’s so rare a QB that wasn’t very good in college turns out to be anything in the NFL.

 

 

[jrober38]

7 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Actually, it depends upon how you define "successful".

 

Ryan Tannehill has been a 6-year stater for Miami and taken them to the playoffs, and he wasn't elite in college.

Joe Flacco lost his job at Pitt to Tyler Palko, and wasn't anything approaching elite at Delaware (he had a good Senior year and that was it), and he has carved out a 10-year career with a Super Bowl championship.

Matt Ryan threw for less than 3k yards as a JR with a YPA below 7.0; he then threw for 4,500 yards with a sub-60% completion rate and a YPA below 7.0 as a SR.  Not elite at all.

 

I could keep going, but your assertion is not exactly supported here.

 

Ryan Tannehill has been a very mediocre NFL QB. As a top 10 pick he's not a success. Not a complete failure, but he's done nothing to elevate the Dolphins.

 

Flacco is an obvious outlier. 

 

Matt Ryan carried a mediocre BC team to a top 10 ranking and a 10 win season as a Senior. He finished 7th in the Heisman Vote in 2007. 

 

There are obviously exceptions, but if you look at how many mediocre QBs get drafted to the NFL, and how few of them actually make it as Franchise Guys, the odds are overwhelmingly slanted towards these type of guys never becoming anything more than backups at the pro level.  

The QBs I have with a 1st round grade this year are Darnold, Mayfield, Rosen and Jackson. I think they could all start this year and have about a 50% chance of becoming really good pros. 

 

The next tier for me is Allen, Lauletta and Rudolph. I'd consider picking them in the 3rd or 4th round. I think they each have less than a 10% chance of becoming a really good pro QB. 

 

I wouldn't use a draft pick on any other QB. I'd rather draft a player who can actually contribute on special teams and possibly develop into a good backup. 

Edited April 11, 2018 by jrober38

[ALF]

That would be great if Allen went in the top 3 giving the Bills a chance at a good QB still at #4 if they can't trade up to #2.

[thebandit27]

2 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Ryan Tannehill has been a very mediocre NFL QB. As a top 10 pick he's not a success. Not a complete failure, but he's done nothing to elevate the Dolphins.

 

Flacco is an obvious outlier. 

 

Matt Ryan carried a mediocre BC team to a top 10 ranking and a 10 win season as a Senior. He finished 7th in the Heisman Vote in 2007. 

 

There are obviously exceptions, but if you look at how many mediocre QBs get drafted to the NFL, and how few of them actually make it as Franchise Guys, the odds are overwhelmingly slanted towards these type of guys never becoming anything more than backups at the pro level.  

The QBs I have with a 1st round grade this year are Darnold, Mayfield, Rosen and Jackson. I think they could all start this year and have about a 50% chance of becoming really good pros. 

 

The next tier for me is Allen, Lauletta and Rudolph. I'd consider picking them in the 3rd or 4th round. I think they each have less than a 10% chance of becoming a really good pro QB. 

 

I wouldn't use a draft pick on any other QB. I'd rather draft a player who can actually contribute on special teams and possibly develop into a good backup. 

 

You're moving the goalposts to support your stance on the "elite college QB" issue.

 

Ryan had 1 good season as a SR, not elite by any stretch.  If we want to give him credit for carrying a mediocre team, then what shall we say about Allen, who took over a 2-win team and took them to consecutive bowl games, including a bowl game win as a SR against one of the top-20 pass defenses in college football?

 

The point is that you are using hindsight to cherry-pick examples that fit your narrative.  Again I say that I'm fine with being of the opinion that Allen won't be successful, but keep in in the fairway; there's no reason to overstate your case.

10 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said:

Some of you are giving jrober a tough time here but his formula (his formula is using his eyes) is pretty good.

 

It’s so rare a QB that wasn’t very good in college turns out to be anything in the NFL.

 

 

 

Again, nobody is saying that Allen is definitely going to; many of us, however, are railing against those who say he's definitely not going to, which is just as silly.

[FearLess Price]

28 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Who does Cleveland have to smoke out?  They pick one.  The reason the first picks usually gets leaked because they have no one to deceive.  Once they figure out who they want at 1 they move onto to 4 where that is a position they would leak mis-information.

 

Even if they dont have to fool anyone do you really think dorsey is gonna take Allen over all other prospects? Picking at #1 you want a sure fire hit. Allen is probobly the biggest boom or bust prospect. Quote me now. They wont be taking allen at #1. Darnolds a better prospect with more accuracy and college production.

[HappyDays]

32 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

On that fact alone, any QB that has a shot to be a long-term franchise guy should be a first-round pick. 

 

Every QB has a shot to be a franchise QB. You're basically saying no team should ever draft a QB outside of the 1st round which is crazy.

[Mat68]

18 minutes ago, FearLess Price said:

 

Even if they dont have to fool anyone do you really think dorsey is gonna take Allen over all other prospects? Picking at #1 you want a sure fire hit. Allen is probobly the biggest boom or bust prospect. Quote me now. They wont be taking allen at #1. Darnolds a better prospect with more accuracy and college production.

He took Mahomes over Watson and Newton over Gabbert (which was actually thing back in that draft).  It is def a possibility.  Allen has made more NFL throws than Darnold this past year.  Darnold led the NCAA in turnovers.  Allen's Oregon and Iowa games are on par with Darnold's performance vs Ohio St.  They are much closer than some talking heads would have you believe.  I 100% believe Allen is in consideration and wont be surprised that he goes 1.  If both guys reach their potential who end up being better?  Do I think Darnold has a higher probability of being successful?  I do but I also see Allen as a bit of a unicorn who with proper coaching could be special.  Ive said this for a while now.  Do not forget how arrogant coaches are.  They all believe they are the best and will be able to get all that potential out of him.

19 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Every QB has a shot to be a franchise QB. You're basically saying no team should ever draft a QB outside of the 1st round which is crazy.

 

Yes, to stash a guy and let them learn, possibly developing to a future replacement or trade-able asset.  However, that is not the first place you go to find a starter.  That is what you do after you have one.  right now Buffalo does not have one.  Even Russell Wilson wasn't suppose to start.  Seatlle gave Flynn a massive deal and expected him to be the starter.  

[Just Joshin']

The delta in the ceiling between Darnold and Allen is smaller than the delta between them in the floor.

 

To me this is a clear risk management decision and Cleveland will select Darnold as a result.

 

[Mat68]

9 minutes ago, Dalton said:

The delta in the ceiling between Darnold and Allen is smaller than the delta between them in the floor.

 

To me this is a clear risk management decision and Cleveland will select Darnold as a result.

 

Agree, but i don't think Hasslam is risk averse.  Imo Wentz sits in his mind today.  He does not want to make that mistake twice.  Both Darnold and Allen should sit a year.  Its not a surprise that Allen could go one.  If Darnold was as polished as Rosen sure, but Darnold is not as clean a prospect as the media perceives him to be.  With the age of the QB pool Imo you are going to see QBs drafted on potenial in a more of a NBA way than the NFL has normally operated.  They are not drafting 20-21 year old Qbs on what they were in January but what they think they will be in next year and the year following.  

Edited April 11, 2018 by Mat68

[BuffaloRush]

On 4/2/2018 at 2:14 PM, SoCoBills said:

Take it for what it’s worth. If true then wow, the Browns are still the Browns. What a mistake in the making. 

 

UPDATE: Broadcast by some social media pages as fact and some more reputable sources as more of a strong rumor. 

 

This only bodes well for the Bills IF NYG doesn’t take Darnold.  They are rumored to be interested in Jim.  Drafting Darnold all but ensures that QB’s are going 1-3.  It forces the Bills to trade up to #5 to get Mayfield or Rosen

[Hsker4life]

1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

 

Ryan Tannehill has been a very mediocre NFL QB. As a top 10 pick he's not a success. Not a complete failure, but he's done nothing to elevate the Dolphins.

 

Flacco is an obvious outlier. 

 

Matt Ryan carried a mediocre BC team to a top 10 ranking and a 10 win season as a Senior. He finished 7th in the Heisman Vote in 2007. 

 

There are obviously exceptions, but if you look at how many mediocre QBs get drafted to the NFL, and how few of them actually make it as Franchise Guys, the odds are overwhelmingly slanted towards these type of guys never becoming anything more than backups at the pro level.  

The QBs I have with a 1st round grade this year are Darnold, Mayfield, Rosen and Jackson. I think they could all start this year and have about a 50% chance of becoming really good pros. 

 

The next tier for me is Allen, Lauletta and Rudolph. I'd consider picking them in the 3rd or 4th round. I think they each have less than a 10% chance of becoming a really good pro QB. 

 

I wouldn't use a draft pick on any other QB. I'd rather draft a player who can actually contribute on special teams and possibly develop into a good backup. 

There are also countless examples of highly successful QBs at the college level who do little at the NFL level. 

 

 

Edited April 11, 2018 by Hsker4life

[dezertbill]

19 hours ago, Chuck Wagon said:

 

 

Or the Giants just take Barkley like has been rumored, the Jets take Baker and we are getting teams calling us for extra picks while we decide between Rosen and Darnold.

The only way this is true is the Giants interest in Darnold is a total smoke screen.

 

The way Gettlemen spoke of Eli it would make sense for them to go positional player instead of QB.  But with how the Manning/Luck scenario turned out i'm not one to risk that.

 

 

[Chuck Wagon]

12 minutes ago, dezertbill said:

The only way this is true is the Giants interest in Darnold is a total smoke screen.

 

The way Gettlemen spoke of Eli it would make sense for them to go positional player instead of QB.  But with how the Manning/Luck scenario turned out i'm not one to risk that.

 

 

 

 

I believe smokescreen.  I think they view Eli as having plenty in the tank and the Mara's think very highly of him.  Benching him last year basically got everyone involved in the decision fired.  I just think they are going to go with a player that's going to help Eli succeed (Barkley).

[BillsFan17]

Anyone that thinks Gettleman isn't considering a QB isnt being 100% rational. The guy has apparently turned us down to trade up multiple times according to Gelko.

 

The Giants have zero reason to stay put if they arent considering a QB

 

Barkley as good as he is, you cant justify taking a RB second overall in this class, you just cant.

 

Chubb, an exceptional player, no two ways about it. Maybe gettleman thinks they can recapture something with a stout defense. However, the d is changing from a 43 to a 34, no telling if it will garner immediate success. While Chubb is versatile and could absolutely play in a 34, there is no telling if guys like Vernon can, and could see almost a Rex Ryan effect to some of the players on that roster.

 

In turn, Chubb may not really be that, win now type of pick.

 

To me if Darnold is there I think the Giants absolutely pounce. If not, I think with all the Cam Newton comparisons, Gettleman could strongly consider Allen. The highest ceiling (I disagree with that notion but) but needs time and needs to develop. Perfect situation. Smith/Mahomes part two.

 

 

[thebandit27]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

Every QB has a shot to be a franchise QB. You're basically saying no team should ever draft a QB outside of the 1st round which is crazy.

 

Nope.

 

I'm saying that first-round QBs should be limited to guys that you believe has the potential to be a long-term franchise QB.  If you don't think he's got that, then you don't draft him in the first.  Guys on day 2 should be those that you think you can win with if the rest of your team is excellent; those aren't franchise guys.  Day 3 guys are long-term backups.

 

If you don't think a guy can ever become an NFL QB, then you shouldn't be drafting him.

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[26CornerBlitz]

Solak | The path to success with Josh Allen at #1 overall
“I wish you would step back from that ledge my friend…”

But seriously, it’s all okay. Football is a game. There will be more drafts, and new players, and the wheel of life will rumble on, careless of your moaning and groaning when the Browns select Wyoming QB Josh Allen with the first overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft.

Just breathe.

While Allen represents the largest gamble–by far–of all the quarterbacks rumored to go in the first round, there still is a path on which he finds great success in the NFL. It’s narrow, bumpy, and covered with pitfalls–that’s what makes him risky–but at its end we find a top-flight NFL quarterback. One that defensive coordinators dread having to face, given his mobility and creativity; that defensive linemen can never seem to drag down; that corners can’t beat, no matter how close their coverage is.

Again, I’m not gonna tell you it’s likely–it’s rather the opposite. It would be an astounding outlier by multiple projections, analytic and film-oriented alike. But the path exists, and I’m one for optimism.

Once you have a player, there’s no reason to bemoan the prospects over which you passed, the outcomes that could have been. The bed is made–let’s see how best to lie in it.

This is how to succeed with Josh Allen.

Edited April 12, 2018 by 26CornerBlitz

[26CornerBlitz]

 

 

[LeGOATski]

Hand size. 

 

It's all about grip strength and they need start testing that at the combine.

QBs can wear a glove to help with grip, anyway.

[KDIGGZ]

HAND SIZE!  TAKING ALLEN!!!  MUAHAHAHAHA

 

I think that is confirmation right there.  Darnold has average to below average NFL QB hand size

[Royale with Cheese]

I wonder if Dorsey's office is filled with 8x10 photos of QB's hands?

[elltrain22]

It's 50/50 Cleveland will draft him IMHO. 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

 

[dave mcbride]

On 4/11/2018 at 10:32 AM, jrober38 said:

 

Ryan Tannehill has been a very mediocre NFL QB. As a top 10 pick he's not a success. Not a complete failure, but he's done nothing to elevate the Dolphins.

 

Flacco is an obvious outlier. 

 

Matt Ryan carried a mediocre BC team to a top 10 ranking and a 10 win season as a Senior. He finished 7th in the Heisman Vote in 2007. 

 

There are obviously exceptions, but if you look at how many mediocre QBs get drafted to the NFL, and how few of them actually make it as Franchise Guys, the odds are overwhelmingly slanted towards these type of guys never becoming anything more than backups at the pro level.  

The QBs I have with a 1st round grade this year are Darnold, Mayfield, Rosen and Jackson. I think they could all start this year and have about a 50% chance of becoming really good pros. 

 

The next tier for me is Allen, Lauletta and Rudolph. I'd consider picking them in the 3rd or 4th round. I think they each have less than a 10% chance of becoming a really good pro QB. 

 

I wouldn't use a draft pick on any other QB. I'd rather draft a player who can actually contribute on special teams and possibly develop into a good backup. 

I think Tannehill was on an upward path until he got hurt in 2016. This is his make or break year, and I expect him to be pretty good (at least).