Did the Bills get completely screwed on trade compensation last year?

[OldTimer1960]

These trades aren't just look-us on one of the several trade value charts.  They are negotiations between two teams that have their own values on the available players. Additionally, the cost to move up seems to go up dramatically the closer you get the pick 1.  That is also reflected on the trade value charts where I note that pick 2 is worth considerably more than pick 3 (supposedly).

 

Here is a link to what is argued to be the most current/accurate trade chart.  Note that pick 5 is worth about 5% more than pick 6, but pick 2 is worth almost 40% more than pick 3 and pick 1 is worth 40% more than pick 2. 

 

Note also that the author of this chart says: "Tying to create a table that includes picks at the top of the draft (ie: top five) doesn’t make sense because the value of the pick changes on a year-to-year basis. For example, the #1 pick when Andrew Luck was a prospect is worth a lot more than the #1 pick this year, with Myles Garrett as the top prospect."

 

https://www.patspulpit.com/2017/4/23/15398184/2017-nfl-draft-creating-a-brand-new-nfl-draft-value-trade-chart

 

[Foxx]

2 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said:

 

 

Simply put, yes.  Darnold & Rosen have been the guys everyone has been drooling over for over a year.  Allen was the intriguing mystery and Baker charged his way onto the scene (though that feels more like a media/fan creation than real scouting).  Mahomes was viewed as a wildcard, basically a less polished Allen from a system notorious for allowing QBs to outshine their talent.

coming into last year, Falk was part of the Rosen, Darnold discussion. he intrigues me as i simply find it hard to believe he fell off a clif as much as it would seem.

[Chuck Wagon]

10 minutes ago, Foxx said:

coming into last year, Falk was part of the Rosen, Darnold discussion. he intrigues me as i simply find it hard to believe he fell off a clif as much as it would seem.

 

 

No, he wasn't.

[BuffaloRebound]

Supply and demand.  A QB who falls to pick 10 is not in high demand.  You also had Watson still available at pick 10 so you still had some supply.  It's why Cleveland probably got the better deal at 12, since only one of them was left.  

[Mark Vader]

41 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

That’s part of my question... was Mahomes that much lower rated than the guys this year?

In my opinion, he was.

 

I did not like last year's QB class, and I saw this year's class having much better potential. That's why I loved it when we traded down, and got a future first rounder.

[BillsFan130]

22 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

The 22nd this year wasn't worth 780 exactly because we had to wait a year for it. Not saying it wasn't an OK deal but the Chiefs kind of messed it up a bit by not sucking.

Ya fair point, I did forget to factor that in

[Foxx]

8 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said:

 

 

No, he wasn't.

i guess my recollection differs.

[BillsFan130]

43 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

There's always a discount involved with future picks. I'm not sure how the discounting works in terms of points, but firsts in subsequent years are generally regarded as seconds.

Ya my bad, I forgot about the discount. My calculation was off

[apuszczalowski]

Next years picks are valued lower cause of 2 simple reasons

1. You have to wait til next season to get something in return (unless you can flip it)

2. You have no idea where that pick will ultimately be. How many assumed all last off-season the Bills were going to be I  the Browns situation with 2 top 10 picks this year? No One thought they were going to end up with 2 picks in the bottom 3rd of the draft

[MDH]

I like how Whaley gets blamed if a poster peecieves something he did last draft as being bad but if the pick worked out McD gets the credit.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 minute ago, MDH said:

I like how Whaley gets blamed if a poster peecieves something he did last draft as being bad but if the pick worked out McD gets the credit.

 

He scouted them, he should get credit - especially for Milano considering he wasn't at the senior bowl.  I just think McD wanted to pick people he worked with/got along with the best.  

[dave mcbride]

7 minutes ago, apuszczalowski said:

Next years picks are valued lower cause of 2 simple reasons

1. You have to wait til next season to get something in return (unless you can flip it)

2. You have no idea where that pick will ultimately be. How many assumed all last off-season the Bills were going to be I  the Browns situation with 2 top 10 picks this year? No One thought they were going to end up with 2 picks in the bottom 3rd of the draft

you also are one year closer to being fired - and almost everyone gets fired at some point.

[SteveFreeman22]

1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said:

It doesn’t feel fair. I’m cranky. Carry on. You can tell I never look at charts but just seems like we should have been able to get more! Eff you Chefs.

Well, this just in, nobody forced them to make a trade.

[Manther]

1 hour ago, kdiggz said:

should have traded with a worse team like the Texans.  Browns found the right partner

Houston and KC were about the same quality team when the trade was made.  Injuries hurt the Taxans a lot.

1 hour ago, Jauronimo said:

General consensus here is that McD and somehow Beane ran last year's draft so I'm surprised to see Whaley now get credit.  Albeit credit for the one part of the draft you now have issue with.  Last year around this time, the trade was a stroke of genius.  Whaley was a dead man walking and there was no way he was allowed to execute a trade in round 1. 

 

 

Jauronimo............I would like to share my thoughts with you!

 

I still LOVE your avatar and profile name EVERY time I see it still!  It always makes me smile and laugh!

 

Thanks, great stuff!!

 

PS. Since you referenced Whaley as dead man walking................Jauron looked like dead man walking for 3 years.

1 hour ago, MrEpsYtown said:

We've talked about this before and some people agree with me, but I really think McDermott shelved the idea of taking a quarterback until he had his own GM and scouts etc in place. Why would he make such a huge decision with Whaley and his scouts when he knew Whaley was gone after the draft? 

 

This is the year for the quarterback. 

I absolutely and totally agree with you!!  It is the most common sense thought process on trading out of taking a QB last year and stocking up for this year.

[cba fan]

2 hours ago, dneveu said:

 

The real question is whether you felt whaley was qualified to make that decision.

The real question is(if all the reports/rumors were correct that Whaley loved Watson and Pegs banged the table for Mahomes)

 

Why McDermott overruled them.

[Freddie's Dead]

I'm with you on this one.  I thought the Bills got fleeced by KC, needing one more pick to make a square deal.  I was pilloried at the time by the cognoscenti at TBD.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

11 minutes ago, Freddie's Dead said:

I'm with you on this one.  I thought the Bills got fleeced by KC, needing one more pick to make a square deal.  I was pilloried at the time by the cognoscenti at TBD.

 

fleeced seems like an overstatement.  We got 27 a 2017 3rd and a 2018 first.  Cleveland got 25 and a 2018 first for pick 12.  It only looks better because Houston absolutely bottomed out.  

Tre White so far has also looked like a better player at 27 than Peppers at 25.

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

Moved down 17 spots and only got one future 1st? And the the player selected was the 2nd QB off the board. Compared to what we are going to have to give up for moving up 10 spots for the 2nd QB off the board? Is Rosen considered that much better than Mahomes or was Whaley asleep! I know it is to 2 instead of 10 but we also moved to 27 instead of 12.

 

 

 

IMHO it came down to the Bills not really having had leverage. They wanted to trade down, it now appears pretty clearly and it can't have been that difficult to figure out even back then.

 

It's hard to read how desperate KC might have been but the vibe appeared to be that they wanted Mahomes but weren't jonesing enough to take advantage of.

 

This year's draft is special, and there are QBs teams are dying to get their hands on. The teams with the picks are in extremely strong positions. They're playing teams off each other. Don't think we were able to do that last year.

Edited March 20, 2018 by Thurman#1

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

7 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

IMHO it came down to the Bills not really having had leverage. They wanted to trade down, it now appears pretty clearly and it can't have been that difficult to figure out even back then.

 

It's hard to read how desperate KC might have been but the vibe appeared to be that they wanted Mahomes but weren't jonesing enough to take advantage of.

 

This year's draft is special, and there are QBs teams are dying to get their hands on. The teams with the picks are in extremely strong positions. They're playing teams off each other. Don't think we were able to do that last year.

 

Well we only get like - what 10 minutes to make it happen?  Pre-draft trades always look like rip-offs vs. ones that occur during the draft.

[Mat68]

No to move about the same distance buffalo trade a tackle with feet problems.

[MJS]

3 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

We've talked about this before and some people agree with me, but I really think McDermott shelved the idea of taking a quarterback until he had his own GM and scouts etc in place. Why would he make such a huge decision with Whaley and his scouts when he knew Whaley was gone after the draft? 

 

This is the year for the quarterback. 

 

This makes sense.

[KDIGGZ]

2 hours ago, Manther said:

Houston and KC were about the same quality team when the trade was made.  Injuries hurt the Taxans a lot.

i don't agree at all.  before the season started, i had KC winning about 11-12 games and going as far as the 2nd round of the playoffs and I had Houston winning 7-8 games and missing the playoffs.  here's one of my posts from last year when they made the trade:

 

Posted April 28, 2017

I agree with them. Chiefs will pick around same spot next year. A late 1st round 25th isn't the same as a top 10-15 pick obviously. I think we needed to get a 2nd rounder this year to say we "hosed them." A 3rd is like ehh ok.

 

Cleveland will have pick 1 and a top 15 since they traded with Houston who is going to stink this year.

 

[BillsFan4]

3 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

Moved down 17 spots and only got one future 1st? And the the player selected was the 2nd QB off the board. Compared to what we are going to have to give up for moving up 10 spots for the 2nd QB off the board? Is Rosen considered that much better than Mahomes or was Whaley asleep! I know it is to 2 instead of 10 but we also moved to 27 instead of 12.

 

I don't think the QBs last year were as highly rated as the QBs this year.

 

Not sure how you feel about Daniel Jeremiah (IMO he is a pretty well respected draft analyst, although obviously all this draft stuff has to be taken with a grain of salt).

But he has 4 QBs this year on his "top 10 QB prospects for the last 3 years" list, and 2 in the top 3. 

 

He has Darnold 1 and Rosen 3. Mayfield is 5, Allen 6.

Pat Mahomes doesn't even make the top 10. Watson is 7. 

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000922045/article/top-10-qb-prospects-of-past-3-nfl-draft-classes-darnold-no-1

 

 

Another thing to consider, there definitely didn't seem to be much of any discussion last year of numerous QBs going off the board in the top 3-5 like this year, or any discussion at all of 5 or 6 possible 1st round QBs. Or talks of teams competing with each other to trade up to the top of the draft. 

[YoloinOhio]

2 hours ago, cba fan said:

The real question is(if all the reports/rumors were correct that Whaley loved Watson and Pegs banged the table for Mahomes)

 

Why McDermott overruled them.

I thought they loved Trubisky

[Manther]

56 minutes ago, kdiggz said:

i don't agree at all.  before the season started, i had KC winning about 11-12 games and going as far as the 2nd round of the playoffs and I had Houston winning 7-8 games and missing the playoffs.  here's one of my posts from last year when they made the trade:

 

 

Nice job with your prediction.  My prediction would have been KC and Houston are about the same.  And, I was similar to Vegas.  Vegas predicted Houston at 8.5 wins and KC at 9.

[FeelingOnYouboty]

5 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

Moved down 17 spots and only got one future 1st? And the the player selected was the 2nd QB off the board. Compared to what we are going to have to give up for moving up 10 spots for the 2nd QB off the board? Is Rosen considered that much better than Mahomes or was Whaley asleep! I know it is to 2 instead of 10 but we also moved to 27 instead of 12.

 

When the trade was announced my first reaction was, "That's it?"

[KDIGGZ]

52 minutes ago, Manther said:

Nice job with your prediction.  My prediction would have been KC and Houston are about the same.  And, I was similar to Vegas.  Vegas predicted Houston at 8.5 wins and KC at 9.

Good post. I didn't realize Vegas was that far off. Seemed pretty obvious to me who the better team was

[Manther]

27 minutes ago, kdiggz said:

Good post. I didn't realize Vegas was that far off. Seemed pretty obvious to me who the better team was

Well, you were closer than Vegas!  You could have cashed in!  Did you?

 

EDIT: with the cap issues KC had last off-season and the cutting of players I thought they would be closer to 8-8.

Edited March 20, 2018 by Manther

[KDIGGZ]

3 minutes ago, Manther said:

Well, you were closer than Vegas!  You could have cashed in!  Did you?

 

EDIT: with the cap issues KC had last off-season and the cutting of players I thought they would be closer to 8-8.

If I was into betting I might have. I don't follow that stuff. I just assumed most people would be high on KC. Nice defense and playmakers on offense with a decent veteran QB. I think they will take a step back this year with Mahomes but they might be good again in 2 yrs if he can figure things out.

[Manther]

2 hours ago, kdiggz said:

If I was into betting I might have. I don't follow that stuff. I just assumed most people would be high on KC. Nice defense and playmakers on offense with a decent veteran QB. I think they will take a step back this year with Mahomes but they might be good again in 2 yrs if he can figure things out.

I think KC can duplicate what they did last year due to that terrible stretch they had in the middle of the season.  However, their division was weaker last year and should bounce back from weak to possibly strong.  I don't bet either.