Dan Patrick: Bills have called Browns about #1 pick

[Kirby Jackson]

13 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said:

Do you think that will get a move from 12 to 2 done? I would absolutely love it if it did! I'd be all over that trade but I'm just not sure that gets it done, especially now that the Jets set the market so ridiculously high. 

 

https://www.patspulpit.com/2017/4/23/15398184/2017-nfl-draft-creating-a-brand-new-nfl-draft-value-trade-chart

 

According to the new draft value chart (which IIRC is the one you like to use) the trade you offered would be 793.48 points, and the #2 overall is worth 717.17. So maybe that does get it done.

 

But the Jets set the market crazy high. Again, looking at the new draft value chart, the 3rd overall pick is worth 514.33. 

 

If all my math is correct, The Jets gave up 725.88 in picks this year, plus whatever you value their 2nd at next year. Say you value it as the 6th pick of the 3rd round (1 round lower than this year for it being a year out), it's worth 69.82. 

 

That would be 795.7 draft points given up for a pick worth 514.33. So they overpaid by 281.37. 

 

For the Bills to match that offer, they'd have to give up 998 draft points for the #2 pick (which is valued at 717.17)

 

Their 6 picks in the first 3 rounds are worth a total of 921.13. That leaves another 76.87 points to make up to match the Jets offer (which probably means adding another 2nd next year, possibly even our 1st to make up the difference between moving from 12 to 2 ans falling out of the top 10 completely, (where as the Jets only moved from 6-3)). But just say a 2nd for arguments sake...

 

If the Giants are looking for someone to match the Jets overpayment, we probably can't do it. Not unless Beane sacrifices his entire draft. 

I think that is roughly what the pick will go for. I don’t think anyone but the Bills are in play for the Giants pick. As much as the price was set with the Jets going up the Giants lost leverage too. The Bills are the only realistic bidders IMO.  Again, that assumes that the Giants are willing to listen. Maybe they use 56 instead of 65? I suspect that it will be 4 of the Bills first 5 picks and a mid rounder next year. There isn’t another team that can come close to that offer that is looking to move up. 

Edited March 19, 2018 by Kirby Jackson

[BmarvB]

I doubt if the Browns will trade down

[Boatdrinks]

16 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Even if the Jets did try to trade with the Giants (I don’t think they did), they do not have the same draft capital as the Bills. They may have only been open to parting with those 2nd rounders. Giants may have told them it starts with 2 1sts and goes from there, even if only to 6. Because they know they will get 12 and 22 plus more from the Bills. And IF the giants were willing to talk to the Jets about a trade they very likely would squeeze them extra tight with the intra-market rivalry and microscope. 

The Bills draft capital thus far has been overrated by fans. What's kept them from moving up is the lack of a top ten pick to offer. As long as a team in the top ten is willing to pay the price, they'll be shut out. It's been tweeted by Greg Gabriel that the Giants don't do business with the Jets as far as trades etc. It's never happened, so he may have something there. The Giants pick at 2 was never in play for NYJ. It may not be in play for anyone barring a record setting haul of picks going to the G men. 

[Rico]

Dare to be great and go to #1, McBeane!

 

The gift of Rosen, DRINK IT IN MAN!

[RochesterRob]

14 minutes ago, BillsFan17 said:

I feel like the phrase "due diligence" is being thrown around like crazy lately.

 

Beane said Buffalo wasn't moving on from Tyrod unless they had a plan in place. They then trade Tyrod and move up to the 12th overall. 

 

We are beyond "due diligence," especially after the Jets moved up and forced every QB hungry teams hand.

 

Beane needs to be making serious inquiries at this point or run the risk of possibly being leaped over yet again.

  You are missing the bigger point in that no GM reveals his plan to the public so his competition can take advantage.  Beane is no doubt looking at a great number of things but sure as heck he is not intentionally leaking any valued information or analysis for the public to grab onto.  Face it.  You and I are outside the process and will only learn anything as it unfolds versus being in the know a month ahead.

[Chuck Wagon]

10 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

The Bills draft capital thus far has been overrated by fans. What's kept them from moving up is the lack of a top ten pick to offer. As long as a team in the top ten is willing to pay the price, they'll be shut out. It's been tweeted by Greg Gabriel that the Giants don't do business with the Jets as far as trades etc. It's never happened, so he may have something there. The Giants pick at 2 was never in play for NYJ. It may not be in play for anyone barring a record setting haul of picks going to the G men. 

 

 

The lack of the top 10 pick may have been the deal breaker on the Colts trade, but the Jets fired their gun.  Outside of maybe Denver (#5, 2 3s, 2 4s, 3 5s) there's no one else in the top 10 now shopping for QB.  

[apuszczalowski]

1 hour ago, TheTruthHurts said:

We have the assets. Get it done. They dumped cap, and we can fill holes in free agency next year. 

Easy to just say that but they still have a season to play this year. This is still a business and theres fans and players o  the team who actually want to build off last year and get better. Not take a year off and wait til next year.

[YoloinOhio]

8 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

The Bills draft capital thus far has been overrated by fans. What's kept them from moving up is the lack of a top ten pick to offer. As long as a team in the top ten is willing to pay the price, they'll be shut out. It's been tweeted by Greg Gabriel that the Giants don't do business with the Jets as far as trades etc. It's never happened, so he may have something there. The Giants pick at 2 was never in play for NYJ. It may not be in play for anyone barring a record setting haul of picks going to the G men. 

I don’t think that’s necessarily true. The difference between pick 12 and pick 10 when you have 60 % more draft capital than the average nfl team plus the ability up your sleeve to give up next year’s 1st isn’t that big. Why everyone takes Ballard (or anyone) at face value is beyond me. They may have done the deal with the jets to double dip later with the Bills or the Bills  have said no thanks we will just go to 2. Ballard is going to say whatever makes him look good as he should. 

[gobills1212]

11 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

The Bills draft capital thus far has been overrated by fans. What's kept them from moving up is the lack of a top ten pick to offer. As long as a team in the top ten is willing to pay the price, they'll be shut out. It's been tweeted by Greg Gabriel that the Giants don't do business with the Jets as far as trades etc. It's never happened, so he may have something there. The Giants pick at 2 was never in play for NYJ. It may not be in play for anyone barring a record setting haul of picks going to the G men. 

agreed, but this is also another element why IMO the 2019 #1 is important. I feel it puts them over the top just bc of the nature of what it is. 

I look forward to seeing the outcome

[Boatdrinks]

7 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said:

 

 

The lack of the top 10 pick may have been the deal breaker on the Colts trade, but the Jets fired their gun.  Outside of maybe Denver (#5, 2 3s, 2 4s, 3 5s) there's no one else in the top 10 now shopping for QB.  

Yes, Denver is the remaining concern. They may try to move into # 2 or #4. They don't have a ton of draft capital to offer in 2018, but they do have the 5th pick. Attractive for a team that doesn't need to select a QB, as they'll still get their target player and and extra picks for free. It's a no sacrifice situation. 

[Nitro]

Smart move.  Call and see what it will take.  If Cleveland is willing to wait to 4th selection to pick a QB, they could land a slew of draft picks in return.   2 firsts, 2 seconds and a third this year for the first over all. They could reinvent their roster. 

[Boatdrinks]

1 minute ago, gobills1212 said:

agreed, but this is also another element why IMO the 2019 #1 is important. I feel it puts them over the top just bc of the nature of what it is. 

I look forward to seeing the outcome

It might be, but that's a pick Beane is probably wanting to hold on to as part of the rebuild plan. It could be the difference, but probably only happens in a deal to secure the #2 pick. Any further down has too many variables , but it could be worth the certainty that the 2nd pick overall would provide. 

[gobills1212]

7 minutes ago, apuszczalowski said:

Easy to just say that but they still have a season to play this year. This is still a business and theres fans and players o  the team who actually want to build off last year and get better. Not take a year off and wait til next year.

i dont think its taking a year off.. i think its taking a step to get your ducks in a row. Everything takes time. You need to acclimate your rookie. You need to put pieces in place and let them grow. Then, once the 1st half gets in the groove - they have a ton a cap to use for the areas they have assessed as short comings the year before. It is actually showing there is a plan and as much as i hate it - the process. The teams that seem to go in circles dont have this foresight. They just gun to be as good as possible every year at the potential detriment of their future. If you simply say its a necessary evil - that covers it to a degree too. To have the majority of fans on board for something like that is kind of impressive bc USUALLY they are the ones with no patience. With a rookie QB, they might have gotten a pass while he comes into his own - and the best part? they might not even need it!

[apuszczalowski]

1 minute ago, Nitro said:

Smart move.  Call and see what it will take.  If Cleveland is willing to wait to 4th selection to pick a QB, they could land a slew of draft picks in return.   2 firsts, 2 seconds and a third this year for the first over all. They could reinvent their roster. 

There's no way that gets them the #1 overall pick. The Browns would need to be blown away to justify moving the #1 overall pick and dropping one of their picks out of the top 10. It's going to be really hard for them to be able to go back to that fan base and justify giving away the #1 overall pick and the top QB i  this draft to move back that far.....

[gobills1212]

4 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

It might be, but that's a pick Beane is probably wanting to hold on to as part of the rebuild plan. It could be the difference, but probably only happens in a deal to secure the #2 pick. Any further down has too many variables , but it could be worth the certainty that the 2nd pick overall would provide. 

i should have set that stipulation, but that was the only option i was actually referring to. Much like the Jets, I'd pay a little more to have it set in stone. 

Sadly, 3 has the variable of 2. 2 prob cant be jumped. 

 

food for thought... i find it funny jets fans mostly are happy it guarantees then 1 of the 4. I cant imagine doing that and settling for the scraps.

Some people argue they over paid but jets fans for it think they didnt... and id love to see the bills jump the jets and see the bitter jets fans say the bills overpaid..

Edited March 19, 2018 by gobills1212

[Nitro]

Just now, apuszczalowski said:

There's no way that gets them the #1 overall pick. The Browns would need to be blown away to justify moving the #1 overall pick and dropping one of their picks out of the top 10. It's going to be really hard for them to be able to go back to that fan base and justify giving away the #1 overall pick and the top QB i  this draft to move back that far.....

Draft trade value for first is 3000.  Bills top 5 picks equal that in value.  Equitable trade but that will not happen.  Always wanting more. 9 selections in the first three rounds is tempting. 

[jkirchofer]

I think he called about four and asked about one. I would love to get one of the top two picks just to piss of the Jets fans.

[apuszczalowski]

2 minutes ago, gobills1212 said:

i dont think its taking a year off.. i think its taking a step to get your ducks in a row. Everything takes time. You need to acclimate your rookie. You need to put pieces in place and let them grow. Then, once the 1st half gets in the groove - they have a ton a cap to use for the areas they have assessed as short comings the year before. It is actually showing there is a plan and as much as i hate it - the process. The teams that seem to go in circles dont have this foresight. They just gun to be as good as possible every year at the potential detriment of their future. If you simply say its a necessary evil - that covers it to a degree too. To have the majority of fans on board for something like that is kind of impressive bc USUALLY they are the ones with no patience. With a rookie QB, they might have gotten a pass while he comes into his own - and the best part? they might not even need it!

They have no money left for any impact FAs this year and still have a bunch of needs to fill for this season which will now have to be through the draft. They won't be able to do that if they give away all their picks to select someone who is most likely going to end up the next Winston or Marriotta, and then telling a fan base who just had their first playoff game in over a decade to wait til next year when we can spend some money in FA, which also means they will have even more holes to fill to replace the guys who's salaries are coming off the books.

 

They can stay put and still take a good prospect QB in Jackson or Rudolph with one of their picks to go along with a QB who has potential to also be a good starter in this league in McCarron while using the draft capital they have to restock the roster with some talent. I'm sure Kyle would have been eager to come back knowing the plan was to wait til next year to get better

[maryland-bills-fan]

You heard it hear FIRST !!!    The Bills have offered their entire draft to the Patriots for Tom Brady !!   (If it ever happens, I'll be the world's smartest person).    Coming next  OJ Simpson signs an NFL contract!!  ........Yes it is interesting to speculate. No, it doesn't mean any of these in-the-know longshots have anything to back them up.   My horse-betting uncle used to talk about a type of sharpie, who would go around before any race and offer free "tips" on different horses to win.  Go around to a hundred people and offer every horse in the field as the winner based upon inside information. After the race, he would stand by the payout window and try to cage a reward from the people who won and had heard his "tip".   Hmmmm.  Now about O.J.......,.

[BillsFan17]

25 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  You are missing the bigger point in that no GM reveals his plan to the public so his competition can take advantage.  Beane is no doubt looking at a great number of things but sure as heck he is not intentionally leaking any valued information or analysis for the public to grab onto.  Face it.  You and I are outside the process and will only learn anything as it unfolds versus being in the know a month ahead.

Again, we trade our starting QB, then jump up to 12th overall. Teams know Buffalos' intentions by now.

 

Hence why the Colts got the return they did from the Jets. Jets felt the heat from Buffalo moving up and thought they needed to strike asap.

[Boatdrinks]

5 minutes ago, gobills1212 said:

i should have set that stipulation, but that was the only option i was actually referring to. Much like the Jets, I'd pay a little more to have it set in stone. 

Sadly, 3 has the variable of 2. 2 prob cant be jumped. 

 

food for thought... i find it funny jets fans mostly are happy it guarantees then 1 of the 4. I cant imagine doing that and settling for the scraps.

Some people argue they over paid but jets fans for it think they didnt... and id love to see the bills jump the jets and see the bitter jets fans say the bills overpaid..

It's way too soon to say that 3 means you settle for scraps. Wentz went after Goff, Roethlisberger after Rivers, Marino after Obrien etc. The NYG may not be taking a QB. Some NFL types believe the NYG and NYJ don't do business with each other. There only needs to be one QB that the NYJ or any team likes available at 3. If only one is off the board, the odds of that are pretty good. The NYJ GM is on the thinnest of ice, one foot probably broke through already. He knows he had to take a swing, because he fired otherwise. 

[apuszczalowski]

3 minutes ago, Nitro said:

Draft trade value for first is 3000.  Bills top 5 picks equal that in value.  Equitable trade but that will not happen.  Always wanting more. 9 selections in the first three rounds is tempting. 

You can throw the value chart out the window now as GMs are going to want a premium knowing what the Jets paid to only move up 3 spots. The Browns or Giants would be moving down 10-11 spots most likely taking them out of any chance of getting a player they could have gotten at that spot. Colts move down and still have a chance at who they could have had at 3.

[RichRiderBills]

2 hours ago, Like A Mofo said:

No way Cleveland moves out of 1. Browns need players, they already have a great draft board. At some point you need to take high end players in a draft and stop accumulating so many picks.

 

I don't understand this.

 

The selection at # 4 gives them play to still get a QB or upper-end franchise player. Like you say, they add a ton of picks over time because the roster is needing players.

 

They just got that stop gap QB who they are at least talking like they (at least in pressers) dont feel is a stop gap, while that may be a smokescreen, i think it at least allows them to find a developmental QB and not a surefire day 1 starter. They are perfect to draft a guy like Allen or Jackson and develop him.

[BmarvB]

Beaner's playing it cool. He's not going to tip his hand but he does have the draft capital to move up if he wants to. The question is, will he go for broke or sit tight and roll the dice on one of the QB's dropping down far enough to make a better deal than the one the Jets made?

I see Mayfield in our future

Edited March 19, 2018 by BmarvB

[TheElectricCompany]

They will have a preferred QB prospect in mind and will draft him at #1. 

If Barkley goes #2, they might be willing to move #4? 

 

[RochesterRob]

6 minutes ago, BillsFan17 said:

Again, we trade our starting QB, then jump up to 12th overall. Teams know Buffalos' intentions by now.

 

Hence why the Colts got the return they did from the Jets. Jets felt the heat from Buffalo moving up and thought they needed to strike asap.

  What might have been the plan a couple of months ago may not be the plan as of today.  Things are fairly fluid in the NFL today versus a generation or two ago.  Moving to 12 might have been a part of a much more complex plan than you give credit for.  Staying at 12 for Smith or Evans plus moving to 7/8 for Mayfield/ Allen utilizing 22, a second along with another pick is just as likely in my mind as a big leap to 1 or 2.

[TheFunPolice]

imagine trading up with the Colts to #6

 

Colts could draft an entire team out of this one draft! lol

 

 

Browns pick at #4 is good as well, since the Giants might covet Barkley.

 

That guarantees you one of the "big 3" QBs and Allen might be one of the 2 that get drafted ahead of 4, which is a plus

[BuffaloRebound]

It's looking more and more that Jets are in complete desperation mode.  They were all in on Cousins and he took less money from Vikings per the Peter King MMQB article.  Giants at 2 basically blocks them from ensuring they get one of their top 2 choices at QB.  Trading three 2nd rounders to move up to 3 was a panic move.  It will take nothing less than next years 1st rounder to get higher than 3 as Giants will not be helping them out without a pound of flesh.  Before McCagnan does that, Jets ownership would be wise to fire him.  

[Boatdrinks]

Just now, TheFunPolice said:

imagine trading up with the Colts to #6

 

Colts could draft an entire team out of this one draft! lol

 

 

This possibility was a big part of the reason the Colts chose to move to 6. They don't have tons of cap space and need players. The haul from the Jets was solid, and the potential to acquire even more picks from a team like BUF made the #6 spot a great move. 

[TheFunPolice]

I think the route to #2 is as follows, assuming the Giants don't want to drop down far AND covet Barkley.

 

Trade up to #4 with Cleveland, who once they take a QB have all the motivation in the world to trade down once Barkley is gone at #2

Swap #4 and #2 with the Giants, who could pick up a couple of premium picks to draft 4th, and be sure that they still get Barkley, since the Browns Bills and Jets all want QBs

 

Everybody wins in that scenario... even the Jets, who want the worst QB of the bunch in Allen (assuming that's true)

Edited March 19, 2018 by TheFunPolice

[YoloinOhio]

Colin Cowherd ( I know, I know) had an interstng point on his show today. He said the NYG org is very conservative and even though they know they need a QB, they won’t take one of the top guys this year who are ready to play like Rosen because of the pressure it will put on Eli. The NYG hated the blowback they got last year from benching him with the media, Manning Family, etc. BUT there is no way in hell they will let the Jets draft Rosen. They would feel he would steal the spotlight, also a reference to his religion and NYC market and they refuse to compete with that for PSLs, corporate sponsorship,etc. He thinks they will trade the pick to another team who wants Rosen and come out looking like a rose with all of their picks, then take a non-threatening QB later to groom. Even if they don’t know the Jets want him, they will make sure it doesn’t happen.

Edited March 19, 2018 by YoloinOhio

[FeelingOnYouboty]

Call about the #1 pick but settle on #4 

Edited March 19, 2018 by FeelingOnYouboty

[Boatdrinks]

1 minute ago, YoloinOhio said:

Colin Cowherd ( I know, I know) had an interstng point on his show today. He said the NYG org is very conservative and even though they know they need a QB, they won’t take one of the top guys this year who are ready to play like Rosen because of the pressure it will put on Eli. The NYG hated the blowback they got last year from benching him with the media, Manning Family, etc. BUT there is no way in hell they will let the Jets draft Rosen. They would feel he would steal the spotlight, also a reference to his religion and NYC market and they refuse to compete with that for PSLs, corporate sponsorship,etc. He thinks they will trade the pick to another team who wants Rosen and come out looking like a rose with all of their picks, then take a non-threatening QB later to groom. 

I thought Rosen has said he's an atheist ? 

[MarkyMannn]

5 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

They will have a preferred QB prospect in mind and will draft him at #1. 

If Barkley goes #2, they might be willing to move #4? 

 

I think that's the Bills only chance.  Browns go QB at #1, and Barkley goes #2, then maybe we can trade to #4.  If Giants go QB, then Barkley is there at #4 and the Browns take him for sure.  Then I'm not sure where we are

[Royale with Cheese]

I'm willing to give up next years 1st because we have so much cap room next year, we can use that towards filling a need.

Two, I really hope we build upon last year and this pick will be in the 20's for 2019.

Edited March 19, 2018 by Royale with Cheese

[TheFunPolice]

Just now, YoloinOhio said:

Colin Cowherd ( I know, I know) had an interstng point on his show today. He said the NYG org is very conservative and even though they know they need a QB, they won’t take one of the top guys this year who are ready to play like Rose because of the pressure it will put on Eli. The NYG hated rh blowback they got last year from benching him with the media, manning Family, etc. BUT there is no way in hell they will let the Jets draft Rosen. They would feel he would steal the spotlight, also a reference to his religion and NYC market and they refuse to compete with that for PSLs, corporate sponsorship,etc. He thinks they will trade the pick to another team who wants Rosen and come out looking like a rose with all of their picks, then take a non-threatening QB later to groom. 

 

I think Gettleman wants Barkley, and if the Bills can swing a trade to #4 THEN swap with NYG he gets Barkley AND some extra picks, PLUS accomplishes the above.

 

That is the definition of a win-win-win for all involved. Browns get more picks and their choice of QB, Giants get the guy they want anyway plus some picks, Bills get at least their 2nd choice at QB if not their 1st

 

Jets probably still end up getting the guy they really want in Allen as well

[Boatdrinks]

3 minutes ago, TheFunPolice said:

I think the route to #2 is as follows, assuming the Giants don't want to drop down far AND covet Barkley.

 

Trade up to #4 with Cleveland, who once they take a QB have all the motivation in the world to trade down once Barkley is gone at #2

Swap #4 and #2 with the Giants, who could pick up a couple of premium picks to draft 4th, and be sure that they still get Barkley, since the Browns Bills and Jets all want QBs

 

Everybody wins in that scenario... even the Jets, who want the worst QB of the bunch in Allen (assuming that's true)

And how is Barkely off the board at #2 in this scenario ? 

[Ol Dirty B]

2 hours ago, billspro said:

I think at the very least the Browns would let us know what QB they would select if they stay there. If they are not picking our guy, Beane will trade up to number 2 and the Browns will get Barkley at 4. It is in the Browns best interest to have us trade up to number 2. 

 

I don't understand why I've heard this.

 

Why on earth would the Browns tell us what QB they are going to draft, and on top of that, truthfully. It makes no sense.

[TheFunPolice]

Just now, Boatdrinks said:

And how is Barkely off the board at #2 in this scenario ? 

 

I guess he wouldn't be... I worded that poorly

 

I meant that the Browns might trade #4 knowing the Giants are just going to take Barkley if he is there at #2 anyway. In other words, there is almost no way the Browns get Barkley unless the Giants trade out to the Bills straight up (without someone else being involved). So Browns might as well trade out of #4.

[Boatdrinks]

1 minute ago, MarkyMannn said:

I think that's the Bills only chance.  Browns go QB at #1, and Barkley goes #2, then maybe we can trade to #4.  If Giants go QB, then Barkley is there at #4 and the Browns take him for sure.  Then I'm not sure where we are

At that point you hope Elway and the Broncos are in win now mode and won't take a QB. Then you call Ballard and get into the 6 spot ( or 5 if Elway wants a bunch of picks to try and win now)