Hits and Misses: How Successful Was GM Bill Polian In The Draft? HINT: Not as good as you'd think

[BuffaloRush]

It's time to analyze an NFL Hall of Famer and one of the Bills greatest GM's ever....Bill Polian.  Recently Polian has been the target of much controversy based on comments that some would deem to be outrageous.  But how was Polian in the draft for the Bills?  

 

It will surprise you but from a Hits and Misses standpoint, the final number is nowhere as high as you might image.  In fact, I'll say he's the lowest so far and below you'll see why.
 

Before we rank Polian, here's the standings so far

 

1. Russ Brandon: 28%

2. Marv Levy: 25%

 

 

1986 Draft

1986	1	Ronnie Harmon	16	RB	1997	0	1	1	63	181						615	2774	10	582	6076	24			Iowa
1986	1	Will Wolford	20	T	1998	0	3	13	75	191														Vanderbilt
1986	3	Leonard Burton	77	C	1992	0	0	0	7	60														South Carolina
1986	5	Carl Byrum	111	RB	1988	0	0	1	5	41						132	527	0	18	127	1			Miss. Valley St.
1986	7	Bob Williams	168	TE		0	0	0																Penn St.
1986	7	Mark Pike	178	DE	1998	0	0	0	10	173													1.0	Georgia Tech
1986	7	Butch Rolle	180	TE	1993	0	0	1	2	124									38	213	11			Michigan St.
1986	8	Tony Furjanic	202	LB	1988	0	0	0	2	28														Notre Dame
1986	9	Reggie Bynum	222	WR	1987	0	0	0	0	1									2	24	0			Oregon St.
1986	10	Guy Teafatiller	251	DT	1987	0	0	0	1	3													1.5	Illinois
1986	11	Tony Garbarczyk	278	DE	1987	0	0	0	0	2														Wake Forest
1986	11	Billy Witt	282	DE	1987	0	0	0	1	2														North Alabama
1986	12	Brian McClure	313	QB	1987	0	0	0	1	1	20	38	181	0	3	2	4	0						Bowling Green
1986	12	Derek Christian	331	LB		0	0	0																West Virginia

 

Hits 1 Misses 13 = 7%

 

OUCH The big selecting is Wolford who became of the NFL's best LT.  I am not going to give Harmon a miss.  He was dynamic RB when it came to catching the ball but I don't this his production warranted #16.  Butch Rolle and Mike Pike are known among Bills fans but neither was anything more than a marginal contributor.  Rolle was a 3rd string TE that had a fun streak of catching TE's and Pike was a great special teams guy but IMO neither were starters and don't warrant a "hit."

 

7	1	Shane Conlan	8	LB	1995	0	3	8	59	120												5	7.0	Penn St.
1987	2	Nate Odomes	29	DB	1996	0	2	7	53	115												26	3.0	Wisconsin
1987	2	Roland Mitchell	33	DB	1994	0	0	1	15	89												6	1.0	Texas Tech
1987	3	David Brandon	60	LB	1997	0	0	1	20	123												4	7.0	Memphis
1987	3	Jamie Mueller	78	RB	1990	0	0	2	8	57						238	901	4	28	169	1			Benedictine
1987	4	Leon Seals	109	DE	1992	0	0	2	22	82												1	14.5	Jackson St.
1987	7	Kerry Porter	171	RB	1990	0	0	0	0	35						16	57	0	4	44	0			Washington St.
1987	8	Bruce Mesner	209	NT	1987	0	0	0	1	11														Maryland
1987	9	Keith McKeller	227	TE	1993	0	0	4	16	80									124	1464	11			Jacksonville St.
1987	11	Howard Ballard	283	T	1998	0	2	10	67	170														Alabama A&M
1987	12	Joe McGrail	311	NT	1987	0	0	0	0	2														Delaware

 

5 Hits/6 Misses = 45%

 

Overall a good draft.  I am giving Conlan a "hit" as he developed in a Pro Bowl player for 3 seasons.  Mueller is probably the closest to a hit from the group, but I really don't feel he was more than a blocking FB and that his production doesn't match his status.  Great picks with Seals, McKeller and Ballard toward the end.

 

988	2	Thurman Thomas HOF	40	RB	2000	2	5	10	112	182	0	1	0	0	0	2877	12074	65	472	4458	23			Oklahoma St.
1988	3	Bernard Ford	65	WR	1990	0	0	0	1	24									17	176	2			Central Florida
1988	5	Ezekial Gadson	123	DB		0	0	0																Pittsburgh
1988	5	Kirk Roach	135	K		0	0	0																West. Carolina
1988	6	Dan Murray	150	LB	1990	0	0	0	0	4														East Stroudsburg
1988	7	Tim Borcky	177	T		0	0	0																Memphis
1988	7	Bo Wright	184	RB		0	0	0																Alabama
1988	8	John Hagy	204	DB	1990	0	0	1	6	28												2		Texas
1988	8	Jeff Wright	213	NT	1994	0	0	5	30	98												1	31.5	Central Missouri St.
1988	9	Carlton Bailey	235	LB	1997	0	0	6	44	142												1	10.0	North Carolina
1988	10	Martin Mayhew	262	DB	1996	0	0	7	41	118												21	1.0	Florida St.
1988	11	Pete Curkendall	289	DT		0	0	0																Penn St.
1988	12	John Driscoll	309	T		0	0	0																New Hampshire
1988	12	Tom Erlandson	316	LB	1988	0	0	0	0	4

 

3 Hits/11 Misses = 21%

 

OK Thurman goes without saying.  TREMENDOUS pick.  The rest?  Eh not so much.  Bailey was a great late round pick who turned into a capable starter.  As I've stated before Wright IMO was the weak link on the defense and if Ted Washington falls to the Bills, they might have won a Super Bowl.  Still Wright was great value in Round 8.  Martin Mayhew did turn out to be a decent starter in the NFL but not for the Bills

 

89	3	Don Beebe	82	WR	1997	0	0	4	33	116						4	28	0	219	3416	23			Chadron St.
1989	4	John Kolesar	109	WR		0	0	0																Michigan
1989	5	Michael Andrews	137	DB		0	0	0																Alcorn St.
1989	6	Sean Doctor	164	RB		0	0	0																Marshall
1989	7	Brian Jordan	173	DB	1991	0	0	2	13	36												5	4.0	Richmond
1989	7	Chris Hale	193	DB	1992	0	0	0	4	43												1		USC
1989	9	Pat Rabold	249	DT		0	0	0																Wyoming
1989	10	Carlo Cheattom	276	DB		0	0	0																Auburn
1989	11	Richard Harvey	305	LB	2000	0	0	5	33	143												2	13.0	Tulane
1989	12	Derrell Marshall	332	T		0	0	0																USC

 

1 Hit/9 Misses = 10%

 

WOW what a bad draft.  Yes I know they didn't have a 1st or 2nd rounder and Beebe in the 3rd was a great pick.  The rest of this draft was straight garbage.  No late round magic this year.

 

990	1	James Williams	16	DB	1996	0	0	2	17	70												11		Fresno St.
1990	2	Carwell Gardner	42	FB	1997	0	0	0	7	101						211	749	10	36	281	1			Louisville
1990	3	Glenn Parker	69	G	2001	0	0	9	57	174														Arizona
1990	4	Eddie Fuller	100	RB	1993	0	0	0	0	20						6	39	0	2	17	0			LSU
1990	6	John Nies	154	P	1990	0	0	0	0	4														Arizona
1990	7	Brent Griffith	166	G		0	0	0																Minnesota-Duluth
1990	7	Brent Collins	170	LB		0	0	0																Carson-Newman
1990	7	Fred DeRiggi	181	NT	1990	0	0	0	0	2														Syracuse
1990	8	Marvcus Patton	208	LB	2002	0	0	9	72	208												17	27.5	UCLA
1990	9	Clarkston Hines	238	WR		0	0	0																Duke
1990	10	Mike Lodish	265	NT	2000	0	0	1	22	166													8.5	UCLA
1990	11	Al Edwards	292	WR	1992	0	0	0	4	37						2	25	0	26	264	1			NW State (LA)

 

4 Hits/8 Misses = 33%

 

Again not a stellar draft.  JD Williams was a huge whiff by Polian.  He did have some late round success with Patton and I am giving Lodish and Edwards marginal "Hits" given their contributions despite low draft status.

 

91	1	Henry Jones	26	DB	2002	1	1	8	58	158												18	5.0	Illinois
1991	2	Phil Hansen	54	DE	2001	0	0	10	62	156												1	61.5	North Dakota St.
1991	3	Darryl Wren	82	DB	1994	0	0	0	4	20												3		Pittsburg St.
1991	5	Shawn Wilbourn	138	DB		0	0	0																Long Beach St.
1991	6	Millard Hamilton	166	WR		0	0	0
1991	7	Amir Rasul	194	RB		0	0	0																Florida A&M
1991	8	Brad Lamb	222	WR	1993	0	0	0	2	8									7	139	0			Anderson (IN)
1991	9	Mark Maddox	249	LB	2000	0	0	3	24	111												2	2.5	Northern Michigan
1991	10	Tony De Lorenzo	277	G		0	0	0																New Mexico St.
1991	11	Dean Kirkland	305	G		0	0	0																Washington
1991	12	Stephen Clark	333	TE		0	0	0																Texas

 

3 hits/8 misses = 27%

Solid drafting at the top - Jones and Hansen were long term starters and huge contributors.  Maddox eventually played well enough to break the starting lineup for a few seasons.  Excellent return for a 9th round pick

 

TOTAL SCORE =  17/72 = 24%

One thing I can say about Polian with the exception of 1986 he did hit quite a bit on his 1st and 2nd round picks - and that's what you need to you to be successful.  Sure sometimes he missed, but for the most part he found good players toward the top of the draft.  He also avoided drafting any high round busts on his resume.  However, he also had many swings in the draft and missed quite a bit of picks which really surprised me.  Also Polian was involved in many stellar personnel moves outside of the draft which really helped the football team as well.    

 

But oddly enough  - the greatest GM in Bills in history has a lower success rate than Russ Brandon:

 

Current standings:

 

1. Russ Brandon = 27%

2. Marv Levy = 25%

3. Bill Polian = 23%

 

Edited March 6, 2018 by BuffaloRush

[oldmanfan]

Mark Pike and  Carwell Garner were certainly not misses.

[Jay_Fixit]

Marv Levy wasn’t 31%. 

[BuffaloRush]

1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:

Mark Pike and  Carwell Garner were certainly not misses.

 

Well both are definitely debatable.   IMO I don't think that the Bills got a solid ROI on Gardner as a second round pick.  Perhaps it was question to draft a FB in Round 2 to begin with.  My thinking is that the team expected Gardiner to play a bigger role that he did.   While he was a competent starter at FB, I'm not sure if he lived up to draft status.

 

Pike make some nice contributions as a Special Teams player and certainly was a good role player.  It's close but I don't feel he did enough to warrant a "hit" but again, I can see why you'd think that way.

 

Regardless, the total score for Polian doesn't change much even with these two.

[oldmanfan]

I think your breakdown was very interesting.  Glad you did it.  His big hits were really big though.  Four hall of famers.

[BuffaloRush]

4 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said:

Marv Levy wasn’t 31%. 

 

You are right Jay.  I decided to change Whitner to a miss which brings his % down to 25%

 

16 picks - 4 hits = 25%

1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:

I think your breakdown was very interesting.  Glad you did it.  His big hits were really big though.  Four hall of famers.

 

Well really only 1 HOF'er but many solid picks.  Despite this, I'm surprised how many chances he at and how many times he missed

[oldmanfan]

Well, Jim and Andre and Thurman and Bruce. He was at least involved, right?

[Jay_Fixit]

11 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

You are right Jay.  I decided to change Whitner to a miss which brings his % down to 25%

 

16 picks - 4 hits = 25%

 

Well really only 1 HOF'er but many solid picks.  Despite this, I'm surprised how many chances he at and how many times he missed

Brad Butler wasn’t a hit either.

[baskingridgebillsfan]

the real point is no gm kills it when It comes to the draft.  Everyone matches their gm against the mythical perfect gm 

[oldmanfan]

This data really is eye opening.  I wonder how much influence he had on drafts before officially taking over as GM.

[Buffalo03]

Didn't he have some say on Andre and Bruce?

[Mango]

Re: Rolle and Pike. 

 

This is before my football watching time, however I was actually alive, but just a thought. 

 

How can you list "marginal contributors" for two 7th round picks as misses?  They were 7th round picks!!!!  What type of contribution would warrant a hit for a 7th rounder? You should define what you consider an absolute hit v. absolute miss. 

 

Also these were 12 round drafts, I would either drop rounds 8-12, change expectations based on draft spot, or include UDFA in the later era's just to keep things streamlined. Apples to apples. In 2018, if a 7th rounder makes the roster 2 years in a row, you basically killed the pick. 

 

 

[stony]

9 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Well, Jim and Andre and Thurman and Bruce. He was at least involved, right?

He only drafted Thurman. 

[BuffaloRush]

7 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Well, Jim and Andre and Thurman and Bruce. He was at least involved, right?

He did not draft Jim Kelly and technically Terry Bledsoe was GM when Bruce was drafted.  He certainly did draft Thurman.  Probably his best pick ever

[stony]

3 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said:

Didn't he have some say on Andre and Bruce?

Bruce kinda drafts himself.  No?

[oldmanfan]

Just now, BuffaloRush said:

He did not draft Jim Kelly and technically Terry Bledsoe was GM when Bruce was drafted.  He certainly did draft Thurman.  Probably his best pick ever

Good thing you and stony corrected me.  Memory fails the old man at times.

1 minute ago, stony said:

Bruce kinda drafts himself.  No?

Yeah but someone still has to hand in the card

[BuffaloRush]

1 minute ago, Mango said:

Re: Rolle and Pike. 

 

This is before my football watching time, however I was actually alive, but just a thought. 

 

How can you list "marginal contributors" for two 7th round picks as misses?  They were 7th round picks!!!!  What type of contribution would warrant a hit for a 7th rounder? You should define what you consider an absolute hit v. absolute miss. 

 

Also these were 12 round drafts, I would either drop rounds 8-12, change expectations based on draft spot, or include UDFA in the later era's just to keep things streamlined. Apples to apples. In 2018, if a 7th rounder makes the roster 2 years in a row, you basically killed the pick. 

 

 

 

I do see your point.  As I stated given Pike's 7th round status, it's very close.    Rolle was really a 3rd string Tight End that gained notoriety for being an end zone target.  But he was more or less a novelty.  

 

Even if I do consider them to be "hits" it doesn't change Polian's score much

[stony]

2 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Good thing you and stony corrected me.  Memory fails the old man at times.

Yeah but someone still has to hand in the card

Haha.  Fair enough.  For the record, I think he was a good GM.  He just happened to inherit a lot of the faces we all associate with the glory years.  

[Mango]

5 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

I do see your point.  As I stated given Pike's 7th round status, it's very close.    Rolle was really a 3rd string Tight End that gained notoriety for being an end zone target.  But he was more or less a novelty.  

 

Even if I do consider them to be "hits" it doesn't change Polian's score much

 

 

Total aside. Butch Rolle is a total animal at 53 years old. 

 

[BuffaloRush]

3 minutes ago, stony said:

Haha.  Fair enough.  For the record, I think he was a good GM.  He just happened to inherit a lot of the faces we all associate with the glory years.  

Right I can agree with you.  He was also involved in many under the radar personnel moves that really helped the team.  He also assembled a very good team to help him including his successor John Butler.  He just missed quite a bit in the draft and that I didn't expect to see

[ticketssince61]

There are 2 fundamental differences between Polian's era and those you compare him to:

1. There were many more rounds then so the misses are much greater

2. There was less ability to see players then:

   a.combine was not so important

   b. fewer games were not all available on TV,

   c  technology for viewing was much more rudimentary ,,

[stony]

34 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

Right I can agree with you.  He was also involved in many under the radar personnel moves that really helped the team.  He also assembled a very good team to help him including his successor John Butler.  He just missed quite a bit in the draft and that I didn't expect to see

 

He did indeed.  Check out his record in Indy, too. 

[Nihilarian]

While Polian might not have done so great in the drafts during his time in Buffalo. There is no question that he built a playoff team from back to back 2-14 ashes in 84, 85 to a 12-4 playoff team in 1988. 

 

 

Polian was the Buffalo Bills pro personnel director from 1984-1985, then promoted to GM after Bledsoe injured himself in 86. What prompted Ralph Wilson to promote him was the way he was able to get Bruce Smith under contract. 

 

One of the first things Polian did as GM was talking the owner into paying top dollar for QB Jim Kelly. What also helped Polian greatly was the USFL folding when it did because Kelly was out of a job and the player talent from the USFL was available to sign. Like all pro center Kent Hull.

 

In that first draft class of 1986, I can tell you have some things very wrong. 1st pick Ronnie Harmon played in the NFL 12 years and the first four with Buffalo. He was a RB/WR/KR and the reason why Buffalo dumped him was that potential end zone dropped TD pass in that Cleveland playoff game with :09 seconds left. Almost as bad as "wide right". and he never lived it down.

 

That second first-round pick in Will Wolford was a future all pro at LT who played in the NFL for thirteen years.  The second round pick in Leonard Burton played five years in the NFL and started four years for Buffalo. The Third round pick was a FB Carl Byrum who played three seasons for Buffalo. These men aren't misses as they ended up being making the team and contributing.  

 

Mark Pike played for Buffalo for 12 years as a special teamer. Butch Rolle played for Buffalo 6 years and 8 years in the NFL total.

 

You have most these players as misses when they were heavy contributors to the team. 

Edited March 6, 2018 by Nihilarian

[Billznut]

Polian BUILT the Bills super bowl teams. It wasn’t all just the draft. To totally judge a GMs effectiveness, you can’t just look at the draft you must also look at his free agent signings and trades. Tasker was a great FA signing and the Bennett trade in 1987 is considered one of the best in NFL history. Seems like people want to jump on the bandwagon of dumping on Polian lately. Makes NO sense. He’s in the HOF for a reason. He built the Bills, Panthers and Colts. The Bills haven’t had a good GM since Polian left. No reason to be down on him. ALL GMs have misses in the draft. Polian built a great franchise here. 

[row_33]

2 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

I think your breakdown was very interesting.  Glad you did it.  His big hits were really big though.  Four hall of famers.

 

Well.... hah hah hah.... you have to ignore all four Hall of Famers...  hah hah hah.. and all the playoff years... hah hah hah....

 

 

 

 

It it was so much better missing the playoffs for all these recent years and probably never hosting a playoff game ever again... hah hah hah...

 

 

[MJS]

Success of the GM is tied to the success of the team.

 

AND you could have ALL hits, but if your team doesn't have a QB, you'll get fired because you can't consistently win without a QB.

 

And I disagree with many of your "misses".

[Big Turk]

2 hours ago, Mango said:

Re: Rolle and Pike. 

 

This is before my football watching time, however I was actually alive, but just a thought. 

 

How can you list "marginal contributors" for two 7th round picks as misses?  They were 7th round picks!!!!  What type of contribution would warrant a hit for a 7th rounder? You should define what you consider an absolute hit v. absolute miss. 

 

Also these were 12 round drafts, I would either drop rounds 8-12, change expectations based on draft spot, or include UDFA in the later era's just to keep things streamlined. Apples to apples. In 2018, if a 7th rounder makes the roster 2 years in a row, you basically killed the pick. 

 

 

 

How do you list ANY picks from the 7th round(or later) as misses?  The chance of even playing more than 1 season as a 7th round pick is something like 10%...By definition for soemthing to be a "miss" he would have to have a reasonable expection that he would play in the NFL...Rolle far surpasses the vast majority of what most 7th rounds picks accomplish in the NFL, there is no possible way he is a "miss"

 

Anything past a 5th round pick should not have a "miss" status attached to them, that doesn't even make sense in the context of how drafts normally work. 6th and 7th round picks are typically athletic flyers taken on people who are raw and/or not very good at their position in spite of their athleticism

2 hours ago, Mango said:

 

 

Total aside. Butch Rolle is a total animal at 53 years old. 

 

 

 

I see steroids have done him good...

3 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

Mark Pike and  Carwell Garner were certainly not misses.

 

They could have done and probably should have done much better than Gardner with their 2nd round pick...then again fullbacks played a much bigger role then than they do today...they actually carried the ball too

Edited March 6, 2018 by matter2003

[Thurman#1]

Just looking at the first year, Harmon and Pike were not misses. Oh, nor Rolle. For a 7th, Rolle had an excellent career.

 

And how can you list a guy like Richard Harvey as a failure. The guy was drafted in the 11th round and had a pretty solid 11 year career.

 

And the percentages are always going to be lower when you look at someone who was picking in 12 round drafts than for somebody who was picking in 7 round drafts. 

 

It's also a lot harder drafting for a team that's doing a lot of winning. There are fewer roster spaces available because the team is already good, and you're drafting much later in the round. It's just harder.

 

Polian was a terrific GM and drafter.

 

 

5 hours ago, stony said:

 

He did indeed.  Check out his record in Indy, too. 

 

 

It was very impressive there too until he handed the draft over to his son for the last three or so years of the Polian administration there.

 

 

 

Edited March 6, 2018 by Thurman#1

[ganesh]

6 hours ago, ticketssince61 said:

There are 2 fundamental differences between Polian's era and those you compare him to:

1. There were many more rounds then so the misses are much greater

2. There was less ability to see players then:

   a.combine was not so important

   b. fewer games were not all available on TV,

   c  technology for viewing was much more rudimentary ,,

And there was NO Free Agency

[nucci]

7 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

Mark Pike and  Carwell Garner were certainly not misses.

Pike was an excellent ST player who made a big difference in big games. 

[GunnerBill]

As others have said this comparison doesn't really work because you are comparing 7 rounds with 12.  To be in the 25% ball park with the number of picks Polian had is significantly better to be in that same range with the number of picks Russ and Marv (or let's be accurate and just say "Modrak" made).  

[BuffaloRush]

57 minutes ago, nucci said:

Pike was an excellent ST player who made a big difference in big games. 

 

57 minutes ago, nucci said:

Pike was an excellent ST player who made a big difference in big games. 

 

He was a good ST player, though I’m not really giving hits for ST’s

[papazoid]

here's what's not subjective......

 

was 6X NFL Executive of the year

 

with Buffalo....4 straight AFC Championships

 

with  Carolina...... built a team that went to the NFC Championship Game in only its second year of existence

 

with the Colts .......led the NFL with eight consecutive playoff appearances and seven consecutive seasons of 12 victories

[Rochesterfan]

48 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

 

He was a good ST player, though I’m not really giving hits for ST’s

 

 

Then you are doing this wrong - they were drafted as depth/ST players and both exceeded 100 games in the NFL.  

 

Not only were both hits - they were wildly successful hits for their draft position.

 

 

 

Throughout this process your hits and misses are inconsistent and the vast majority of the players are neither.  A 5th round pick that plays 3 years as a back-up with no major plays to his credit is not a hit, but is also not a miss.  He did what you would expect at that spot.

 

I appreciate your effort - I just think your numbers for all 3 make no sense - you tried way to hard to make people misses - like Whitner or Pike that had significant careers including special teams and on other teams.  Regimes change and guys that are drafted for one coach that is moved out, but the player is still successful after moving on - does not mean that the GM missed on the pick - the GM choose a successful guy - the team changed and that player continued success elsewhere.

 

This is especially true of a guy like Polian that had more rounds and less ability to scout players.  His drafting was well above his peers during that time based upon what and where he would draft.

[Rochesterfan]

10 hours ago, BuffaloRush said:

It's time to analyze an NFL Hall of Famer and one of the Bills greatest GM's ever....Bill Polian.  Recently Polian has been the target of much controversy based on comments that some would deem to be outrageous.  But how was Polian in the draft for the Bills?  

 

It will surprise you but from a Hits and Misses standpoint, the final number is nowhere as high as you might image.  In fact, I'll say he's the lowest so far and below you'll see why.
 

Before we rank Polian, here's the standings so far

 

1. Russ Brandon: 28%

2. Marv Levy: 25%

 

 

1986 Draft

1986	1	Ronnie Harmon	16	RB	1997	0	1	1	63	181						615	2774	10	582	6076	24			Iowa
1986	1	Will Wolford	20	T	1998	0	3	13	75	191														Vanderbilt
1986	3	Leonard Burton	77	C	1992	0	0	0	7	60														South Carolina
1986	5	Carl Byrum	111	RB	1988	0	0	1	5	41						132	527	0	18	127	1			Miss. Valley St.
1986	7	Bob Williams	168	TE		0	0	0																Penn St.
1986	7	Mark Pike	178	DE	1998	0	0	0	10	173													1.0	Georgia Tech
1986	7	Butch Rolle	180	TE	1993	0	0	1	2	124									38	213	11			Michigan St.
1986	8	Tony Furjanic	202	LB	1988	0	0	0	2	28														Notre Dame
1986	9	Reggie Bynum	222	WR	1987	0	0	0	0	1									2	24	0			Oregon St.
1986	10	Guy Teafatiller	251	DT	1987	0	0	0	1	3													1.5	Illinois
1986	11	Tony Garbarczyk	278	DE	1987	0	0	0	0	2														Wake Forest
1986	11	Billy Witt	282	DE	1987	0	0	0	1	2														North Alabama
1986	12	Brian McClure	313	QB	1987	0	0	0	1	1	20	38	181	0	3	2	4	0						Bowling Green
1986	12	Derek Christian	331	LB		0	0	0																West Virginia

 

Hits 1 Misses 13 = 7%

 

OUCH The big selecting is Wolford who became of the NFL's best LT.  I am not going to give Harmon a miss.  He was dynamic RB when it came to catching the ball but I don't this his production warranted #16.  Butch Rolle and Mike Pike are known among Bills fans but neither was anything more than a marginal contributor.  Rolle was a 3rd string TE that had a fun streak of catching TE's and Pike was a great special teams guy but IMO neither were starters and don't warrant a "hit."

 

7	1	Shane Conlan	8	LB	1995	0	3	8	59	120												5	7.0	Penn St.
1987	2	Nate Odomes	29	DB	1996	0	2	7	53	115												26	3.0	Wisconsin
1987	2	Roland Mitchell	33	DB	1994	0	0	1	15	89												6	1.0	Texas Tech
1987	3	David Brandon	60	LB	1997	0	0	1	20	123												4	7.0	Memphis
1987	3	Jamie Mueller	78	RB	1990	0	0	2	8	57						238	901	4	28	169	1			Benedictine
1987	4	Leon Seals	109	DE	1992	0	0	2	22	82												1	14.5	Jackson St.
1987	7	Kerry Porter	171	RB	1990	0	0	0	0	35						16	57	0	4	44	0			Washington St.
1987	8	Bruce Mesner	209	NT	1987	0	0	0	1	11														Maryland
1987	9	Keith McKeller	227	TE	1993	0	0	4	16	80									124	1464	11			Jacksonville St.
1987	11	Howard Ballard	283	T	1998	0	2	10	67	170														Alabama A&M
1987	12	Joe McGrail	311	NT	1987	0	0	0	0	2														Delaware

 

5 Hits/6 Misses = 45%

 

Overall a good draft.  I am giving Conlan a "hit" as he developed in a Pro Bowl player for 3 seasons.  Mueller is probably the closest to a hit from the group, but I really don't feel he was more than a blocking FB and that his production doesn't match his status.  Great picks with Seals, McKeller and Ballard toward the end.

 

988	2	Thurman Thomas HOF	40	RB	2000	2	5	10	112	182	0	1	0	0	0	2877	12074	65	472	4458	23			Oklahoma St.
1988	3	Bernard Ford	65	WR	1990	0	0	0	1	24									17	176	2			Central Florida
1988	5	Ezekial Gadson	123	DB		0	0	0																Pittsburgh
1988	5	Kirk Roach	135	K		0	0	0																West. Carolina
1988	6	Dan Murray	150	LB	1990	0	0	0	0	4														East Stroudsburg
1988	7	Tim Borcky	177	T		0	0	0																Memphis
1988	7	Bo Wright	184	RB		0	0	0																Alabama
1988	8	John Hagy	204	DB	1990	0	0	1	6	28												2		Texas
1988	8	Jeff Wright	213	NT	1994	0	0	5	30	98												1	31.5	Central Missouri St.
1988	9	Carlton Bailey	235	LB	1997	0	0	6	44	142												1	10.0	North Carolina
1988	10	Martin Mayhew	262	DB	1996	0	0	7	41	118												21	1.0	Florida St.
1988	11	Pete Curkendall	289	DT		0	0	0																Penn St.
1988	12	John Driscoll	309	T		0	0	0																New Hampshire
1988	12	Tom Erlandson	316	LB	1988	0	0	0	0	4

 

3 Hits/11 Misses = 21%

 

OK Thurman goes without saying.  TREMENDOUS pick.  The rest?  Eh not so much.  Bailey was a great late round pick who turned into a capable starter.  As I've stated before Wright IMO was the weak link on the defense and if Ted Washington falls to the Bills, they might have won a Super Bowl.  Still Wright was great value in Round 8.  Martin Mayhew did turn out to be a decent starter in the NFL but not for the Bills

 

89	3	Don Beebe	82	WR	1997	0	0	4	33	116						4	28	0	219	3416	23			Chadron St.
1989	4	John Kolesar	109	WR		0	0	0																Michigan
1989	5	Michael Andrews	137	DB		0	0	0																Alcorn St.
1989	6	Sean Doctor	164	RB		0	0	0																Marshall
1989	7	Brian Jordan	173	DB	1991	0	0	2	13	36												5	4.0	Richmond
1989	7	Chris Hale	193	DB	1992	0	0	0	4	43												1		USC
1989	9	Pat Rabold	249	DT		0	0	0																Wyoming
1989	10	Carlo Cheattom	276	DB		0	0	0																Auburn
1989	11	Richard Harvey	305	LB	2000	0	0	5	33	143												2	13.0	Tulane
1989	12	Derrell Marshall	332	T		0	0	0																USC

 

1 Hit/9 Misses = 10%

 

WOW what a bad draft.  Yes I know they didn't have a 1st or 2nd rounder and Beebe in the 3rd was a great pick.  The rest of this draft was straight garbage.  No late round magic this year.

 

990	1	James Williams	16	DB	1996	0	0	2	17	70												11		Fresno St.
1990	2	Carwell Gardner	42	FB	1997	0	0	0	7	101						211	749	10	36	281	1			Louisville
1990	3	Glenn Parker	69	G	2001	0	0	9	57	174														Arizona
1990	4	Eddie Fuller	100	RB	1993	0	0	0	0	20						6	39	0	2	17	0			LSU
1990	6	John Nies	154	P	1990	0	0	0	0	4														Arizona
1990	7	Brent Griffith	166	G		0	0	0																Minnesota-Duluth
1990	7	Brent Collins	170	LB		0	0	0																Carson-Newman
1990	7	Fred DeRiggi	181	NT	1990	0	0	0	0	2														Syracuse
1990	8	Marvcus Patton	208	LB	2002	0	0	9	72	208												17	27.5	UCLA
1990	9	Clarkston Hines	238	WR		0	0	0																Duke
1990	10	Mike Lodish	265	NT	2000	0	0	1	22	166													8.5	UCLA
1990	11	Al Edwards	292	WR	1992	0	0	0	4	37						2	25	0	26	264	1			NW State (LA)

 

4 Hits/8 Misses = 33%

 

Again not a stellar draft.  JD Williams was a huge whiff by Polian.  He did have some late round success with Patton and I am giving Lodish and Edwards marginal "Hits" given their contributions despite low draft status.

 

91	1	Henry Jones	26	DB	2002	1	1	8	58	158												18	5.0	Illinois
1991	2	Phil Hansen	54	DE	2001	0	0	10	62	156												1	61.5	North Dakota St.
1991	3	Darryl Wren	82	DB	1994	0	0	0	4	20												3		Pittsburg St.
1991	5	Shawn Wilbourn	138	DB		0	0	0																Long Beach St.
1991	6	Millard Hamilton	166	WR		0	0	0
1991	7	Amir Rasul	194	RB		0	0	0																Florida A&M
1991	8	Brad Lamb	222	WR	1993	0	0	0	2	8									7	139	0			Anderson (IN)
1991	9	Mark Maddox	249	LB	2000	0	0	3	24	111												2	2.5	Northern Michigan
1991	10	Tony De Lorenzo	277	G		0	0	0																New Mexico St.
1991	11	Dean Kirkland	305	G		0	0	0																Washington
1991	12	Stephen Clark	333	TE		0	0	0																Texas

 

3 hits/8 misses = 27%

Solid drafting at the top - Jones and Hansen were long term starters and huge contributors.  Maddox eventually played well enough to break the starting lineup for a few seasons.  Excellent return for a 9th round pick

 

TOTAL SCORE =  17/72 = 24%

One thing I can say about Polian with the exception of 1986 he did hit quite a bit on his 1st and 2nd round picks - and that's what you need to you to be successful.  Sure sometimes he missed, but for the most part he found good players toward the top of the draft.  He also avoided drafting any high round busts on his resume.  However, he also had many swings in the draft and missed quite a bit of picks which really surprised me.  Also Polian was involved in many stellar personnel moves outside of the draft which really helped the football team as well.    

 

But oddly enough  - the greatest GM in Bills in history has a lower success rate than Russ Brandon:

 

Current standings:

 

1. Russ Brandon = 27%

2. Marv Levy = 25%

3. Bill Polian = 23%

 

 

For me you have

 

1986:  4 Hits, 2 guys drafted in 3rd and 5th rounds that played 60 and 40 games respectively and then a bunch of 7th round or later that were not expected to play.  If you only look at the 7 rounds I would say 4 hits, 2 so so players and a miss in the 7th - a bit different than your 7%.

 

1987: Every pick through the 7th round played a minimum of 35 games and 3 years in the NFL - plus he hit on 2 guys in the 9th and 11 th round that were successful.  This was an amazing draft with good players drafted throughout - there were probowl players, depth players, and a fixture or two on the Super Bowl teams.  There were only 2 guys drafted that made no real contribution and they were both after the 7th round.

 

1988: This is probably the worst draft, but they were all late round picks beacuse of the Bennett trade that eliminated many picks.  Bennett makes the first round pick a huge success- even though you do not consider him here.  Thomas was a great pick.  The rest were nothing through 7 rounds, but then he hits on 3 guys after the 7th round and that is amazing.  3 guys that played above 95 games drawn in the 8th round or later tells you what you need to know - they had an eye for small school talent that was unmatched.

 

 

To Continue:

1989:  Another rough draft due to where the selections are - starting late 3rd round as you highest pick.  To get any successful picks would be a win and he hits on 2 players that exceeded 100 games - that is pretty good.  Beebe not only was good player here - he went on to play in additional Superbowls outside of Buffalo.  He also has 2 plays that defined the Bills of that era - so by all accounts he was successful.  There were also 2 7th rounders that both played 2 plus seasons and over 35 games - again those are not misses - that is pretty good for that draft position.

 

1990: 4 draft picks over 100 games played and 3 exceeded 150 games in the NFL.  Pretty good once again.  Even the first rd with Williams although not a success - was not a miss - he played over 6 seasons and 70 games and although it may not be with the success you want from a first rounder it is far from a bust. The real “misses” were 6th and 7th rounders - again these are not really misses as they are mostly fliers where you are hoping to get anything.

 

1991: He again hits 3 guys in the draft that played over 100 games in the NFL - not bad.  His mid round picks 3rd - 6th were not great, but the Bills were pretty stacked at this point being in the middle of a Super Bowl run.  I am not surprised some mid level guys did not stick.

 

Overall - I will not give a percentage because it is objective, but in those 6 drafts he hit on 18 players that played over 100 NFL games in their career and several more that exceeded 60 games and 5 years in the league.  He also found a number of diamonds in the rough with picks after the 7th round becoming successful.  

 

Finally looking at high picks - he pretty much hit on every first round pick except Williams and Williams did not flame out.  4 successful picks and one so-so pick and no busts to me is pretty good.  His second round rate is similar with 4 successful picks and his worst being Roland Mitchell with 89 NFL games on his ledger - I could go successful or so-so, but not one miss in that group either - so you are looking at 8 or 9 major hits out of 10 picks in the first 2 rounds, plus he traded some 1st round picks to get Bennett in here - another Coup for Polian.

 

I think his record and his league awards speak for themselves on how he was viewed as a GM and FO leader.

Edited March 6, 2018 by Rochesterfan

[nucci]

3 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

For me you have

 

1986:  4 Hits, 2 guys drafted in 3rd and 5th rounds that played 60 and 40 games respectively and then a bunch of 7th round or later that were not expected to play.  If you only look at the 7 rounds I would say 4 hits, 2 so so players and a miss in the 7th - a bit different than your 7%.

 

1987: Every pick through the 7th round played a minimum of 35 games and 3 years in the NFL - plus he hit on 2 guys in the 9th and 11 th round that were successful.  This was an amazing draft with good players drafted throughout - there were probowl players, depth players, and a fixture or two on the Super Bowl teams.  There were only 2 guys drafted that made no real contribution and they were both after the 7th round.

 

1988: This is probably the worst draft, but they were all late round picks beacuse of the Bennett trade that eliminated many picks.  Bennett makes the first round pick a huge success- even though you do not consider him here.  Thomas was a great pick.  The rest were nothing through 7 rounds, but then he hits on 3 guys after the 7th round and that is amazing.  3 guys that played above 95 games drawn in the 8th round or later tells you what you need to know - they had an eye for small school talent that was unmatched.

 

The '87 draft to me built those teams, plus he traded for Bennett. Got the top 2 LBs in the draft plus Nate Odomes, McKellar and Ballard

Edited March 6, 2018 by nucci

[Rochesterfan]

53 minutes ago, nucci said:

The '87 draft to me built those teams, plus he traded for Bennett. Got the top 2 LBs in the draft plus Nate Odomes, McKellar and Ballard

 Agree - this year was huge.

[mjt328]

Excellent topic, and I very much appreciate the work that you put in.

But I do think you are missing the overall picture when it came to Bill Polian's time in Buffalo. 

 

 

First of all, Polian was the Pro-Personnel Director in 1984 and 1985.  So although he was not technically the "man at the top", he was absolutely instrumental in the draft that brought us Bruce Smith, Andre Reed and Frank Reich.

 

Second, you have to consider how the NFL Draft was structured at the time.  There were 12 Rounds, instead of 7.  Regardless of the whopping number of picks, this made it no less difficult to find a decent NFL player after the 3rd-4th Round.  If you want to rank GMs on a similar percentage basis, then you would probably need to factor in hits/misses on Undrafted Free-Agents for the more recent guys (Levy, Brandon, Nix, Whaley).

 

Don't forget, in 1988 the Bills were without a 1st Rounder.  And in 1989, they were without a 1st AND 2nd Rounder.  This was due to the Cornelius Bennett trade (which Polian was responsible for), which yielded us a fantastic defensive player who was vital in all of our Super Bowl years.  Contrast this with Brandon's draft, where he got an EXTRA 1st Round Pick for trading away a Pro-Bowl left tackle in Jason Peters.

 

Since the NFL was without Free Agency during those years, General Managers were also forced to find veteran help off the scrap heap/waiver wire.  They couldn't just throw money at a big name player.  In doing this, Polian still managed to land Hall of Famer James Lofton, the greatest special teams player in history Steve Tasker and the leader of our O-Line Kent Hull when the USFL folded.   Not to mention guys like Kenneth Davis (Thurman's backup) and John Davis (starting Right Guard).

 

As others have mentioned, you also may want to reconsider your standards for a "hit" and a "miss."  Just because a player isn't a Pro-Bowl Star, that doesn't mean he wasn't a successful draft pick.  The Bills had an absolutely LOADED roster.  So they had several good players (who could have started elsewhere), sitting the bench for years and years.  Guys like Ronnie Harmon, Mark Pike, Butch Rolle and Carwell Gardner aren't considered household names 25-30 years later.  But they were good NFL players, who stuck around in the league for a long time.

 

And finally, Polian was responsible for hiring a Hall of Fame Coach in Marv Levy to put everything together.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Reed83HOF]

I'm not even going to read through this, he built and took 3 different teams to the superbowl - best GM ever...

[The Now Moment]

Look at the Hall of Famers he drafted in Buffalo and in Indy.  Plus, the talents he brought in otherwise.  He was one of the best GMs.  Everyone has misses.  That's the draft but when your hits are hall of famers...that's when you've got a really good GM

Edited March 6, 2018 by Buffalo30