Is the 2018 QB class highly overrated?

[westerndecline]

Josh Allen is horrible

 

Saw him vs Iowa

Good God was he bad

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

13 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Oh I thought he sucked way before the LA debacle. If Peterman proves to be a long term NFL Quarterback I will have got him very wrong and my hands will be held up. I had him borderline undraftable. 

 

 

...damn you're tough......cut 'em some slack as a 5th......after all Gruden said he was "THE most ready NFL QB I've seen in years"....followed by Brylcream Mel's assertion that, "Peterman could be this year's Tom Brady"......stay tuned..........

[SoTier]

6 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:

No, because if you follow the draft enough you know this happens every year.  Next year is always the better class until its not.

 

IMO you cant decide if a class is over or underrated until the players start some games in the NFL.

 

This is true, but it's not the number of QBs taken high in the draft that makes a great draft; it's how the QBs from the class play over the course of their careers that determines the quality of the class. . 

• 2011 was supposed to be a great class.  The first rounders were Newton (#1), Locker (#8), Gabbert (#10), and Ponder (#12) in the first round and then Dalton the 3rd pick in Round 2 and Kaepernick the 4th in Round 2.  Newton and Dalton are the only ones who've done well.  I don't believe that Locker, Ponder, and Kaepernick are even in the NFL in 2017. 
• 2012 was supposed to be even better with Luck, RG III, Tannehill, and Weeden in the 1st, Osweiler in the 2nd, Wilson and Foles in the 3rd, and Cousins in the 4th.  It actually was the best class since 2004, but that's only because the 2 under-sized QBs picked later, Wilson and Cousins, have blossomed into exceptional talents.  Luck has been somewhat of a disappointment in that he hasn't really developed into quite the superstar envisioned by the "suck for Luck" crowd.   He's still a "franchise QB" but between playing on a crappy team and injury, he's definitely not the best QB in his class.  Tannehill is an acceptable starter on the level of an Andy Dalton or Joe Flacco -- capable of looking really great with the right supporting cast but otherwise pretty ordinary.  IMO, Wilson is the best QB from 2012, and Cousins probably the second best based on what he's actually done on the field.
• Generally, there's 1 really good QB from a draft class with occasionally another decent starter whether there are 5 first round QBs or 1 or 2.  Very rarely does a draft class produce multiple good/great QBs.  That's why 1983 and 2004 are considered "generational" draft classes. 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

22 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

This is true, but it's not the number of QBs taken high in the draft that makes a great draft; it's how the QBs from the class play over the course of their careers that determines the quality of the class. . 

• 2011 was supposed to be a great class.  The first rounders were Newton (#1), Locker (#8), Gabbert (#10), and Ponder (#12) in the first round and then Dalton the 3rd pick in Round 2 and Kaepernick the 4th in Round 2.  Newton and Dalton are the only ones who've done well.  I don't believe that Locker, Ponder, and Kaepernick are even in the NFL in 2017. 
• 2012 was supposed to be even better with Luck, RG III, Tannehill, and Weeden in the 1st, Osweiler in the 2nd, Wilson and Foles in the 3rd, and Cousins in the 4th.  It actually was the best class since 2004, but that's only because the 2 under-sized QBs picked later, Wilson and Cousins, have blossomed into exceptional talents.  Luck has been somewhat of a disappointment in that he hasn't really developed into quite the superstar envisioned by the "suck for Luck" crowd.   He's still a "franchise QB" but between playing on a crappy team and injury, he's definitely not the best QB in his class.  Tannehill is an acceptable starter on the level of an Andy Dalton or Joe Flacco -- capable of looking really great with the right supporting cast but otherwise pretty ordinary.  IMO, Wilson is the best QB from 2012, and Cousins probably the second best based on what he's actually done on the field.
• Generally, there's 1 really good QB from a draft class with occasionally another decent starter whether there are 5 first round QBs or 1 or 2.  Very rarely does a draft class produce multiple good/great QBs.  That's why 1983 and 2004 are considered "generational" draft classes. 

 

 

...EXCELLENT illustration as to how far the QB spot has declined over the last decade except for a handful..........collegiate ball no longer wants to serve as the gratis NFL training ground for NFL ready QB's.....booster demands and what sells seats is their focus......the omnipotent NFL disbanded their minor league ala NFLE years ago while the other 3 major sports have a significant network of developmental leagues....look at your list of 1st rounders or even 2nds over the last decade....hell the majority would NOT even be UDFA's yesteryear..so desperate teams and stupid money exemplify "you get what you pay for" which overall is abysmal at best IMO......

Edited December 9, 2017 by OldTimeAFLGuy

[xRUSHx]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

You think Lamar Jackson is more accurate than Deshaun Watson???

 

I mean you are entitled to your opinion but I just am not seeing the same thing at all. I don't hate Jackson.... I just don't see a first round Quarterback at this stage. I have a low 2nd / high 3rd on him. The prospect I might more liken him to than Watson is Dak Prescott. 

 

I am with you on Josh Allen though. If the Bills draft him in the first two rounds let alone in the top 10 I will be mortified. 

 

Not for me and to be honest I don't even have it close. 

I agree on your post, I am not a Jackson fan at all for a Buffalo fit and Allen needs too much work to be taken that early, besides we all ready have a long term late round project in Peterman,  we need one of the top talents this draft to be a early projected starter IMO.

My top 4 are Rosen,Darnold,Mayfield,Rudolph

Edited December 9, 2017 by xRUSHx

[xRUSHx]

4 hours ago, westerndecline said:

Rudolph with his size, aggressive style and quick release look a ton like Marino

 

Marino randomly slid because of supposed partying...

 

Go figure

I really like Rudolph a lot

 

I am hopeful Rosen,Darnold, Jackson, Allen and Mayfield all go and we get stuck with Rudolph. Haha, IMO Rudolph will be the steal of the draft. Just worried someone snags him before we pick if the draft went heavy QB early. I really want us to move up so we have a choice over not moving and getting stuck with what is left.

Edited December 9, 2017 by xRUSHx

[Formerly Allan in MD]

Why has Allen dropped off?  Is it because he was overrated or because his team has underperformed, or both?  Critical questions. 

[xRUSHx]

8 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Nope, this class was thought of as a great QB class and that hasn’t changed. QB is a strength of this draft. There will probably be 3 QBs in the top 5 picks, maybe 4-5 in the top 10. 

Very strong class IMO

 

Josh Rosen

Sam Darnold

Lamar Jackson

Josh Allen

Baker Mayfield

Mason Rudolph

Drew Lock

Luke Falk

Clayton Thorson

Jarrett Stidham

Riley Ferguson

Kurt Benkurt

Chase Litton 

Nick Fitzgerald

 

This is just the group that is projected for the first 3 rounds. Yes this draft is a very good draft for QBs. Of course it depends on who stays in school but it is a very good class.

33 minutes ago, Formerly Allan in MD said:

Why has Allen dropped off?  Is it because he was overrated or because his team has underperformed, or both?  Critical questions. 

I don't think his stock has changed much I just think others have shined more. IMO it will come down to what team wants him and what team wants someone else. 

[keepthefaith]

Look at the 1st round QBs picked over the past 12 years or so.  It's far from a sure thing that you get a keeper.

 

Might be better to go after someone like Kirk Cousins than to use a 1st round pick on a QB unless you're really sold on someone.

 

http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?type=position

[MAJBobby]

10 hours ago, Klaista2k said:

Remember before the season everyone was saying how the 2018 QB class was going to be one of the best in a very long time?

 

Let's take a look at it now.

 

Sam Darnold- It looks like he may be going back to college?

Josh Rosen- Probably the best QB in the class but I'm seeing a lot of Cutler comparisons.

Baker Mayfield- He's undersized, not every athletic, and some character issues.

Josh Allen- This guy has fallen off big time. Won't even be a 1st or 2nd round pick. No Thanks.

 

There you have it. This once "promising" QB class looks completely underwhelming. 

 

 

Yes the December weak QB class post. Like clockwork

[Sweats]

And were going to blow our wad, giving up all of our half decent picks for a subpar QB...........a franchise QB of the future, mind you.

 

Aye Carumba

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

4 minutes ago, Sweats said:

And were going to blow our wad, giving up all of our half decent picks for a subpar QB...........a franchise QB of the future, mind you.

 

Aye Carumba

 

 

...a Boy Danny Snyder RG II 1/8 move?.......good Lord if so, better be a whole bunch of pink slips......

[SoTier]

2 hours ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

 

...EXCELLENT illustration as to how far the QB spot has declined over the last decade except for a handful..........collegiate ball no longer wants to serve as the gratis NFL training ground for NFL ready QB's.....booster demands and what sells seats is their focus......the omnipotent NFL disbanded their minor league ala NFLE years ago while the other 3 major sports have a significant network of developmental leagues....look at your list of 1st rounders or even 2nds over the last decade....hell the majority would NOT even be UDFA's yesteryear..so desperate teams and stupid money exemplify "you get what you pay for" which overall is abysmal at best IMO......

 

I don't think the NFL's ability to select QBs has actually ever been very good.  Over the last 20 years, when the #1 consensus pick has been a QB, he's worked out about 80% of the time.  QBs taken in the top half of the first round have about a 50% success rate (great/good/decent).    I think it's only about 25% for the bottom half of the first round, and after that, it's probably single digits.

 

The 1983 draft was the best QB draft ever.  Six QBs were taken in the first round but only 10 more were taken in the remaining 11 rounds of the draft, none in rounds 2-4.  Of those 6, Elway went #1 and the last QB taken was Marino at #27.  Blackledge went at #2,  Kelly at #14, Eason at #15,  and O'Brien at #24.  The HOFers were mixed among the busts. 

 

Back before college teams ran the simplistic read option passing games, they ran the ball more.  The pro game was also simpler (which is why the colleges could use pro-style offenses although many, perhaps most, did not), with much less sophisticated offenses and especially defenses, so QBs had a lot less to learn, recognize, and react to during the game.  A QB with a cannon arm, a solid OL to keep blitzers at bay, a couple of speedy wide outs along with a good RB who could catch balls coming out of the backfield were a prescription for a successful offense.  Most reasonably intelligent collegiate QBs with good arms could be half way decent.  Today, the sophisticated defenses with their myriad of disguises, require a lot of skills that not many collegiate QBs can develop in the 2-4 years they're in school.  Meanwhile, pro scouts are still totally enamored with tall QBs despite the success of Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, and Kirk Cousins and the failure of Brock Osweiler.

 

1 hour ago, xRUSHx said:

Very strong class IMO

 

Josh Rosen

Sam Darnold

Lamar Jackson

Josh Allen

Baker Mayfield

Mason Rudolph

Drew Lock

Luke Falk

Clayton Thorson

Jarrett Stidham

Riley Ferguson

Kurt Benkurt

Chase Litton 

Nick Fitzgerald

 

This is just the group that is projected for the first 3 rounds. Yes this draft is a very good draft for QBs. Of course it depends on who stays in school but it is a very good class.

I don't think his stock has changed much I just think others have shined more. IMO it will come down to what team wants him and what team wants someone else. 

 

Unless a QB would be a first round prospect except for something that has nothing to do with how he plays on the field -- lack of height (Brees, Wilson), a slight build (Cousins), athletic department politics (Brady) -- almost all QBs taken after the first round are destined to be backups.  Other than Brees and Dalton, what second rounders have actually become solid starting QBs?  For third rounders, there's Schaub in 2004 and Wilson in 2012.  Who else?  In the fourth round, the only one with a solid claim to fame is Cousins, although Orton did have a couple of decent seasons.

 

Drafting a QB after the first round in hopes of finding a franchise QB is like counting on winning the Powerball lottery to finance your retirement.

 

Edited December 9, 2017 by SoTier

[H2o]

Rosen is a NFL QB. He's put together sone really impressive performances on the field. Prototypical size, good arm, good football smarts. No QB is perfect and Rosen will throw some passes he shouldn't from time to time.

 

Darnold is a NFL QB. I think he would benefit from one more year at the college level. He has everything you look for as well, but had some ugly games early. He'll throw some picks also, but he can make every throw across the field. Decent mobility as well. 

 

Mayfield is a NFL QB if he keeps his head straight. He is the best QB in college football imo. He sees the whole field, he throws accurate balls consistently across the whole field, he is athletic, and he throws well on the run. People will talk about his size, but look at Brees and Wilson. Mayfield is the guy I want us to draft. 

 

These are the top 3 guys and I think they will all be successful in this league. I feel sorry for whomever gets drafted by Cleveland, but the talent is there with all three. 

 

The rest like Rudolph and Falk may be successful, even though I don't really care for Rudolph either, but there is a clear drop off after the top 3 in talent imo. I have also already stated my opinion on Jackson. 

Edited December 9, 2017 by H2o

[yungmack]

Is the 2018 Fan Class overrated?

[MAJBobby]

9 hours ago, BobDVA said:

Unless we have a shot without trading down for Darnold, I do not want any of them.  The Draft a QB no matter what people are the same that led us to Manuel.

 

And the Settle because i declare it is a weak class has led to all the other crap we had under center

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

1 hour ago, xRUSHx said:

Very strong class IMO

 

Josh Rosen

Sam Darnold

Lamar Jackson

Josh Allen

Baker Mayfield

Mason Rudolph

Drew Lock

Luke Falk

Clayton Thorson

Jarrett Stidham

Riley Ferguson

Kurt Benkurt

Chase Litton 

Nick Fitzgerald

 

This is just the group that is projected for the first 3 rounds. Yes this draft is a very good draft for QBs. Of course it depends on who stays in school but it is a very good class.

I don't think his stock has changed much I just think others have shined more. IMO it will come down to what team wants him and what team wants someone else. 

 

......this just in....Gruden graded EVERY single one with an A+++....how do you pick NOW?.....

[MAJBobby]

4 hours ago, Jay_Fixit said:

Jackson plays in a QB friendly system and is a 57% passer with over 1000 attempts.

 

His accuracy is pretty marginal.

 

Are we using the flawed argument of Comp% as an indication of accuracy again?

[K-9]

11 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Nope, this class was thought of as a great QB class and that hasn’t changed. QB is a strength of this draft. There will probably be 3 QBs in the top 5 picks, maybe 4-5 in the top 10. 

All due respect,  but 4-5 QBs picked in the top ten says more about teams desperate for QBs than it says about the ability of the prospects available to meet those needs. This isn’t a very strong QB class, but that’s the case in most years. 

 

My opinion may change after the Senior Bowl when I get my first peak at a few compiled reports from a few guys around the league, but I don’t expect it to, at least for the top prospects. 

[TigerJ]

12 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Nope, this class was thought of as a great QB class and that hasn’t changed. QB is a strength of this draft. There will probably be 3 QBs in the top 5 picks, maybe 4-5 in the top 10. 

Agreed.  Despite the fact that all the top QBs have questions surrounding them, I think there is far more potential in this draft class than is average.  I wouldn't be shocked to see 5 or more starters emerge from this draft class when all the dust clears in a couple years.  That is to say, there might not be 5 starting QBs from this draft class next fall.

[Kirby Jackson]

49 minutes ago, K-9 said:

All due respect,  but 4-5 QBs picked in the top ten says more about teams desperate for QBs than it says about the ability of the prospects available to meet those needs. This isn’t a very strong QB class, but that’s the case in most years. 

 

My opinion may change after the Senior Bowl when I get my first peak at a few compiled reports from a few guys around the league, but I don’t expect it to, at least for the top prospects. 

Teams are always desperate for QBs, 5 don’t always go in the top 10 or so. This class is good.

[K-9]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Teams are always desperate for QBs, 5 don’t always go in the top 10 or so. This class is good.

And that desperation always leads to QBs being over-drafted. I get that and I understand why teams need to reach for the most important position in sports. But that doesn't sway my thinking. I'm hearing it's Rosen and then everybody else at this point, with Rosen the only one with a preliminary grade typically assigned to a legit top 10 pick. Looking forward to the post Senior Bowl reports, when the preliminary compilations first start to crystallize before the combine.  

[Bing Bong]

Hot take OP. Mason Rudolph, Lamar Jackson.. First of all you have no idea how these guys will end up. But there's 6 guys flirting with 1st round potential. That's a deep quarterback class is all. To say otherwise is.. wrong. Overrated? We'll find out 2 years from now. Before then why be a downer about it lol.

[QuoteTheRaven83]

All QB's tanked on purpose so they wouldn't have to go to Cleveland. Tanking goes both ways now...

[LABILLBACKER]

15 hours ago, Klaista2k said:

Remember before the season everyone was saying how the 2018 QB class was going to be one of the best in a very long time?

 

Let's take a look at it now.

 

Sam Darnold- It looks like he may be going back to college?

Josh Rosen- Probably the best QB in the class but I'm seeing a lot of Cutler comparisons.

Baker Mayfield- He's undersized, not every athletic, and some character issues.

Josh Allen- This guy has fallen off big time. Won't even be a 1st or 2nd round pick. No Thanks.

 

There you have it. This once "promising" QB class looks completely underwhelming. 

The Cutler-Rosen comparison is pretty funny and accurate...Darnold is the best and he won't be available. I still like Mason R but not in the top 10...

[Boatdrinks]

Nope. This class was viewed as better than 2016, and still is. The narrative was never " greatest in awhile". Mostly just much better than last year . I don't think that has changed much. Darn old coming out was never a sure thing. Kiper said recently he thinks the best NFL QB when all is said and done is Josh Allen. There will be many QBs picked. Mostvhave played more than one season at say, North Carolina. 

[Augie]

2 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

Nope. This class was viewed as better than 2016, and still is. The narrative was never " greatest in awhile". Mostly just much better than last year . I don't think that has changed much. Darn old coming out was never a sure thing. Kiper said recently he thinks the best NFL QB when all is said and done is Josh Allen. There will be many QBs picked. Mostvhave played more than one season at say, North Carolina. 

 

Not to argue, and I don’t know how it will turn out, but there was a big “best since ‘83 push”. How it looks 10 years from now? No idea. Josh Allen as the best of them is an interesting notion as he doesn’t seem very accurate throwing the ball, which is kind of what you want in a QB. Then again, I’ve been wrong before. A lot. 

[Boatdrinks]

1 minute ago, Augie said:

 

Not to argue, and I don’t know how it will turn out, but there was a big “best since ‘83 push”. How it looks 10 years from now? No idea. Josh Allen as the best of them is an interesting notion as he doesn’t seem very accurate throwing the ball, which is kind of what you want in a QB. Then again, I’ve been wrong before. A lot. 

To some degree. I heard a few references made to that year. Mostly due tho the potential of the number of QBs being drafted high. That shouldn't be confused with the greatness of the outcome of '83, with regard to HOF type players. I believe that is what the OP is getting confused to some degree. QBs now will likely be drafted higher than in years past, for many reasons as you well know. So there are many potential candidates in this draft, it's better than last years according to most pundits. We don't know how they will pan out, and none was ever thought of as a "Luck type" prospect. They are good prospects , it would be great if we had that crystal ball to the future. The opinions on the prospects don't seem to have changed much, and that's what I was getting at. I don't disagree with you though. 

[The Now Moment]

Don't know how we can judge a class before they play on the field 

[Boatdrinks]

Just now, Buffalo30 said:

Don't know how we can judge a class before they play on the field 

We cannot. That said, it's still a class with many good prospects. Prospect being the key here. None of these players fall into the " as close as you can get to a sure thing" category a la Manning, Luck etc. 

[Augie]

3 minutes ago, Buffalo30 said:

Don't know how we can judge a class before they play on the field 

Well,  then it seems you’re completely missing the point of what we do here!     

[The Now Moment]

3 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

We cannot. That said, it's still a class with many good prospects. Prospect being the key here. None of these players fall into the " as close as you can get to a sure thing" category a la Manning, Luck etc. 

Agreed.  I guess the title screws up the logic for me.  They aren't the best prospects no, doesn't mean they can't be the best class.  They could also be the worst haha.  We have to wait to find out

[Boatdrinks]

1 minute ago, Augie said:

Well,  then it seems you’re completely missing the point of what we do here!     

Haha .. lol. There is a lot of truth to that Augie  . We love to make our definitive proclamations. I just hope the Bills find that QB we've been waiting for. Whoever it might be! 

[xRUSHx]

5 hours ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

......this just in....Gruden graded EVERY single one with an A+++....how do you pick NOW?.....

Gruden, haha

 

My picks stay the same

Rosen

Darnold

Mayfield

With Rudolph the steal of the draft

[thunderingsquid]

I think edge rusher is the best position in the draft.

[Jay_Fixit]

5 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

 

Are we using the flawed argument of Comp% as an indication of accuracy again?

It only seems to be flawed when someone completes a good percentage. Jackson has mediocre accuracy and the fact that he even plays on a system that favors QB’s works in my arguments favor. 

 

Or do you not understand how things work?

[GETTOTHE50]

I think darnold is the best

 

he reminds me of Peyton manning, with the way he places the ball and how accurate he is.

 

i hope bills do whatever it takes to get him.

[Gray Beard]

Every year at draft time people say that the QB class isn't really very good, but NEXT YEAR is going to be great.  

And then the next year they say the same thing.

EVERY. SINGLE. YEAR.

[1billsfan]

7 hours ago, xRUSHx said:

Gruden, haha

 

My picks stay the same

Rosen

Darnold

Mayfield

With Rudolph the steal of the draft

 

I think the Bills would have to trade up for Rudolph from where they will be picking. So giving up a couple of first round picks and probably another 3rd or 2nd rd pick between this and the 2019 drafts will not "technically" be a steal. However, I do see Rudolph as exactly the type of QB that McDermott and Beane would target as their franchise QB and won't be shy about giving up the picks necessary to get him.

 

 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

If Kiper thinks Josh Allen is going to be the greatest.......well that's good enough for me......stay the hell away from Josh Allen!

 

Because when you have a guy who finished #4 in passing in the MWC and then drops to 7th his senior year you've just got to NOT pull the trigger.

Edited December 10, 2017 by horned dogs