Franchise QB vs Winning Season

[transplantbillsfan]

If we go 11-5 and we are 30th in passing, I would take a quarterback in the first two rounds regardless. Our passing game is "special needs".

 

Yards yards yards yards yards

 

blah blah blah blah blah blah

 

Geez people.

[NewMexBills]

If we keep winning i would keep TYGOD and draft a QB 2nd round next year.

[transplantbillsfan]

KC disagrees.

 

Alex Smith: 33 years old and probably in the late stages of his prime

 

Tyrod Taylor: 28 years old and entering his prime

[Scott7975]

KC disagrees.

Alex Smith is 33 years old and KC is a stacked team. It doesn't hurt them much to trade up for a QB because their team doesn't need much of anything.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

If we go 10-6 or better with TT, given the dearth of receiver talent on this squad, I'm betting the staff opts to keep TT a few more years, see how Peterman develops in the mean time or maybe pull the trigger on a good prospect if they fall to us over the next few drafts.

This- I don't want to be San Francisco parting ways with Alex smith only to watch him constantly quarterback a winner while my choice to replace him ends up busting his way off my roster.

 

Until otherwise proven, Taylor is good enough to win with so upgrading there is going to take time and risk. You want to see them keep him as risk mitigation.

[TFBillsfan]

That's where I'm torn, if we have a strong season, then my gut tells me to use the majority of the picks strengthning the roster. I.E....WR, OLB, TE, DT, RB and then in the future go all in for the QB as a best case scenario. If we get it right thru the draft in 2018, you're in great position to give up a first to get your guy in 2019 if needed.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

 

Alex Smith: 33 years old and probably in the late stages of his prime

 

Tyrod Taylor: 28 years old and entering his prime

I don't think it this alone. I think Ried was all in on Mahomes...

[BringBackOrton]

How about a winning season and a franchise QB... as in Tyrod Taylor continuing to play well this year?

 

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

Not if the bird in the hand is a pigeon. Edited October 5, 2017 by jmc12290

[BillsfanAZ]

If the Bills get to the playoffs then Taylor will be back next season. I bet the Bills still draft a QB but maybe not with the first pick....all depends on who is available. The Bills have plenty of needs to be filled.

[Section242]

Well yes first round guys are more highly touted, but it doesn't mean better anymore.

 

As I said the days of luck, manning and elway are over. You are just as likely to draft Blaine gabbert in the first as you are a good QB

 

Brees, second round. Romo, undrafted. Wilson, third round. Dalton, second round. TT 4th round, Brady , 6th.

 

For every Matt Ryan 3rd overall there are 10 Jake lockers

 

I fully understand that talents like Rosen don't last til round 3 but he can easily be jay cutler... he isn't Andrew luck or Matt Ryan territory

 

Isn't that for every position? Look at all the tackles like Greg Robinson who've been colossal busts.

[mannc]

There are a few schools, like USC, that still run an NFL friendly style.

That must be why USC QBs have done so well in the NFL.

[SoTier]

Look at the chiefs. They were in the final four, still drafted one of the top 3 QBs in Mahomes by trading with us. So its not impossible.

 

And Mahomes has done what in NFL games that count, exactly? Nothing. Nada. He hasn't even gotten into a game yet. He was also only the third best QB prospect in the 2017 draft. Most drafts yield only one QB who might be considered a "franchise QB", and some don't yield any.

 

I think trading up for any QB except the consensus #1 pick is foolish. If he's not clearly the very best guy in the draft, why are you willing to risk so much when there's little evidence to suggest it works? Let's be honest here: if a QB prospect is so great, why would the team not take him, even if they have a "franchise QB"? This isn't the "good old days" before the rookie salary scale when teams couldn't afford to draft a QB #1 over all when they already had an adequate starter. Moreover, if their current QB is so great, why are they picking #1?

 

Here are the trades for first round QBs for the last 15 years. Not many success stories here.

• In 2016, the Rams traded up to get Jared Goff. After a rocky rookie year, Goff looks better as a sophomore but he truly needs to be a great QB to be worth the picks. Goff being only as good as Carson Palmer or Alex Smith (pre-KC) wouldn't make most fans happy.
• In 2016 the Eagles also traded up to take a QB: Carson Wentz at #2. If Carson Wentz works out to be a franchise QB, the Eagles will be the only team to win the QB lottery by trading up for a non-overall #1 pick .
• In 2012, the Redskins gambled to take Robert Griffin III at #2. He was the OROY ... and he was never as good again. Many fans blame his injury, but the reality is that his style wasn't sustainable although the QB who made plays with his legs was briefly in vogue. It's a good thing they saved their bacon by drafting Kirk Cousins in the 4th round. Of course, the big winner in the QB lottery was Seattle who got Russell Wilson in the third. He's certainly the highest achiever among the 2012 QBs.
• In 2009, the Jests traded up to take Mark "Butt Fumble" Sanchez at #5. Sanchez looked decent as a rookie and early in his sophomore season, and then began sliding downhill.
• In 2004, the Giants traded a bunch of picks, including the #4 pick that they had used on Phillip Rivers, to land the #1 overall pick, Eli Manning. That was a win for the Giants. Eli is streaky, but he seems to bring his A game when it counts (hence 2 Lombardis) whereas Rivers seems to do just the opposite: he seems to fold in important games despite piling up impressive stats (hence only 1 playoff win in his career ... and only 1 playoff appearance since 2009).
• In 2004, the Bills traded back into the first round to take JP Losman at #22. For those with short memories, not only was Losman a bust, but the trade prevented the Bills from being able to take Aaron Rodgers with the #18 pick in 2005. Of course, the team that probably made out the best in 2004, which was a generational year for QBs, was Pittsburgh who took Ben Roethlisberger at #11, easily the best and most consistent QB from 2004 and a future HOFer.

[Buffalo716]

Isn't that for every position? Look at all the tackles like Greg Robinson who've been colossal busts.

Offensive line is going the same way thanks to the spread. It's harder than ever to scout offensive lineman.

 

The NFL is a north / south blocking game traditionally

 

College is east/ west now

 

You must look for specific traits that show how the lineman will translate to the pros... I.E. power I packages...

 

Greg Robinson dominated in a zone read scheme which does not translate to the NFL game. He was all heigjt, weight, athleticism...

 

You must look for specific nuances which translate to the NFl. Cordy Glenn played in an NFL blocking scheme at Georgia. His tape translates better

[Augie]

If we keep winning i would keep TYGOD and draft a QB 2nd round next year.

I was saying that earlier, but corrected myself. It may just be where we have picks later in the first. It all depends upon how things fall.

[H2o]

What an exciting start out of the gate! However, if the Bills go 10-6 or 11-5, that puts them in a difficult position. Even with a stock of draft picks, there will be numerous teams ahead of us looking for a QB. Obviously the past 17 years has been frustrating but do you have any concerns if we make the playoffs how that could impact us long term at the QB position? At this point, you could list the following teams finishing with worse record looking for a QB:

Cleveland, Jets, AZ, San Fran, Miami, San Diego, Jax, Vikings and New Orleans

The QB class of '18 is looking less impressive than it did before. I think Darnold will return to USC to repair his stock if he doesn't start lighting it up tbh. That leaves Rosen as the #1 QB. After that I would take a shot on Faulk, Mayfield, and Allen, but none of them are top 10 worthy imo. They could all be gone by when we pick anyway due to the need for QB's by other teams. If we make the playoffs with Tyrod this year I am ok with keeping him around. I have always said we could win with him and he generally doesn't make mistakes. A lights out defense and a QB who is decent while not turning the ball over = W's. After 17 years of futility I'll take W's all day.

[Augie]

I like what I've seen of Rudolph, but I don't claim to be an expert. There's still a chance a good prospect falls to #20 or so.

[xRUSHx]

Agree, I knew I probably missed a few. My point was some teams may reload with another stud QB for years to come while we continue to spin with average QB play based upon a winning season in what is deemed as a QB rich draft unless you give up the farm and then some to move up.

What worries me is if NE fails this season and they draft one of this crop and end up with another dynasty while we got one lucky season

[Scott7975]

What worries me is if NE fails this season and they draft one of this crop and end up with another dynasty while we got one lucky season

Please. NE is not going to fall that far.

[xRUSHx]

 

Alex Smith: 33 years old and probably in the late stages of his prime

 

Tyrod Taylor: 28 years old and entering his prime

This is his prime? He hasn't proved to be better then when he was drafted yet but this is his prime? What a low bar. He's got a huge hill to be considered a franchise worthy QB in my opinion. He is lucky the rest of the team is doing very well. I'll hold out judgement but as of now he is no different in my eyes this team still needs a better talent at QB if it wants any dynasty to begin.

Please. NE is not going to fall that far.

Brady goes down they will fall much faster then you think with that D. If Brady has told Billacheat he is about finished then Billacheat will be looking for his next saviour, he is always 2 steps ahead of the game. Next years QB draft class is a great place to look. Edited October 6, 2017 by xRUSHx

[Ga boy]

 

Whatever happens, happens. I'll be rooting for the Bills to win until they're mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. After that I'll focus on draft position. Then I'll watch the NFL playoffs, then college basketball, then the Masters, then finally I'll take a look at the draft.

Yes ... nice philosophy: the circle of life.

[transplantbillsfan]

This is his prime? He hasn't proved to be better then when he was drafted yet but this is his prime? What a low bar. He's got a huge hill to be considered a franchise worthy QB in my opinion.

I said entering his prime.

 

You understand I was referring to age, right? Late 20s early 30s are usually considered prime QB years.

 

You seem to be taking the phrase "entering his prime" all wrong.

 

But saying he's not better than when he was drafted is one of the dumbest comment I've ever read about Taylor.

 

With that said, Taylor is playing a lot better than whatever your perception seems to be. I legitimately think Tyrod Taylor's ability and style of play is ideal for a defensive minded coach like McDermott and it wouldn't surprise me at all if the coach is happy with Taylor and is already salivating over all those draft choices we have that we might not be forced to use on a franchise QB because he already feels he's got one.

 

It's a long season and I suspect there will be games that we air it out more, but it's foolish to believe that every head coach wants his QB throwing the football 30+ times per game for 300 yards all the time.

Edited October 6, 2017 by transplantbillsfan

[Virgil]

For the sake of the topic at hand, I think you aren't thinking about the current start of college QB's. Even the great Sam Darnold isn't living up to expectations. Before the season, people thought QB's could go 1, 2, 3. Now, we may have 1 go first overall, but it's not a lock.

If we really want to grab a QB, we still have the ammo with 2 low 1sts, 2nds, and next years 1st to move up.

 

On the flip side, we will have more competition as San Diego, Baltimore, and the Giants might also be looking for QB's

[GunnerBill]

 

Franchise QBs get drafted in mid and late 1st round. It does happen.

And at the moment I don't see a kid I'm willing to trade up for.

If we say end up drafting 20th or 22nd or something like that and the KC pick is even later and the QB class has faltered to the point where there is nobody I fancy at that spot.... I'd see if I can trade my pick for someone's 2019 1st and a mid round pick this year. Just keep punting my extra pick back a year. Might have no takers but I'd certainly make some calls.

[JohnC]

And at the moment I don't see a kid I'm willing to trade up for.

If we say end up drafting 20th or 22nd or something like that and the KC pick is even later and the QB class has faltered to the point where there is nobody I fancy at that spot.... I'd see if I can trade my pick for someone's 2019 1st and a mid round pick this year. Just keep punting my extra pick back a year. Might have no takers but I'd certainly make some calls.

Lamar Jackson is a qb I would trade up for. I wouldn't get carried away and throw away all my assets but I would consider him a worthy prospect to invest in. My feeling, as it was last year and the prior years, is when you have an opportunity to get a franchise opportunity you don't put it off---you just do it. KC is a good model to follow. They already have a good/credible starting qb but saw an opportunity to get a talented yet unfinished product on the roster. They can then work with him to prepare him to compete for the starting job.

[GunnerBill]

Lamar Jackson is a qb I would trade up for. I wouldn't get carried away and throw away all my assets but I would consider him a worthy prospect to invest in. My feeling, as it was last year and the prior years, is when you have an opportunity to get a franchise opportunity you don't put it off---you just do it. KC is a good model to follow. They already have a good/credible starting qb but saw an opportunity to get a talented yet unfinished product on the roster. They can then work with him to prepare him to compete for the starting job.

 

I agree on the principle it is just that at the moment (and it is still early) I don't see a guy I want to trade up for. If one is there for me I'd take him.

[Big Turk]

If we go 10-6 or better with TT, given the dearth of receiver talent on this squad, I'm betting the staff opts to keep TT a few more years, see how Peterman develops in the mean time or maybe pull the trigger on a good prospect if they fall to us over the next few drafts.

 

If we use those 6 picks wisely we could become an AFC power in short order...that is a lot of good young players you have the chance to add...

[corta765]

What an exciting start out of the gate! However, if the Bills go 10-6 or 11-5, that puts them in a difficult position. Even with a stock of draft picks, there will be numerous teams ahead of us looking for a QB. Obviously the past 17 years has been frustrating but do you have any concerns if we make the playoffs how that could impact us long term at the QB position? At this point, you could list the following teams finishing with worse record looking for a QB:

 

Cleveland, Jets, AZ, San Fran, Miami, San Diego, Jax, Vikings and New Orleans

 

Truthfully I'd rather have a winning season with the playoffs. That would lift an enormous burden off the franchise and finally shift the mindset back to winning the title not just getting in.

 

Second you can get a franchise QB in a lot of places and this years draft has a lot of talent. The biggest thing is for the Bills to take a swing at some point this draft. Remember Bridgewater and Carr both fell wayyy down the board with Manziel and Bortles drafted ahead of both. Drafting up high only guarantees your pick of the litter not that success is for sure.

[JohnC]

 

I agree on the principle it is just that at the moment (and it is still early) I don't see a guy I want to trade up for. If one is there for me I'd take him.

The ideal situation is for a group of four or five qb prospects to materialize resulting in us being able to select one of them without dealing off quality picks. We speak a lot about qbs on this platform but what is as important is having a well-rounded roster that puts the qb in a good position to succeed.

 

Goff for the Rams is taking a quantum leap forward. Beyond qb development with good coaching is the upgrading of the OL and adding good receivers to that unit that improved the chances for him to succeed. There are a variety of routes to take in the next draft. In the end what is going to be most important especially with our multiple first three round picks is to make them count. In the long run adding a burst of talent will be more sustaining in elevating this team.

[xRUSHx]

Most young QBs take time, this team needs to address it with a big talent from this draft, the waiting game of wishing on the following draft is why this team hasn't had a franchise worthy QB since the Kelly days. Use a pick early and take the one you want, waiting for one to fall to a later pick is also why this team skips picking one because other teams are more aggressive. I want a dynasty here with a top QB not a wish for a miracle with a QB playing like a backup wishing the rest of the team carries him. Good teams draft QBs regularly while the Bills take a shot every once in a while, no wonders they have the longest playoff loser streak in all of sports.

[CanadianFan]

Well that's the devil's choice we got right now isn't it. No coach is going to play to lose, including McDermott.

 

Now let's think about what Beane is going to do. What he's done thus far: traded down from a Sammy to get more draft picks. Traded Darby for more draft picks. He seems to be a disciple of analytics, statistics. Statistics say later rounds are just as productive. So that's what he's going to do. Thus, I highly doubt we will be trading UP to grab a QB. I'd love to see him prove me wrong, but more likely, he's going to go for the averages, and trade DOWN to get more picks in the draft.

 

So, what I'm saying is, my bet is, Beane is NOT drafting one of the top QBs in the next draft, even if we had the #1 over all draft choice, regardless of the results this season. He'll trade DOWN again, from whatever position we got, to get more draft picks. Who ever happens to land in the 32nd spot in first round, or in 2nd round, is the most we're likely spending for a QB. I'm 75% sure of this. None of the QBs we drool after, are going to be in a Buffalo jersey come 2018.

[BuffaloBill]

It's not necessarily one vs. the other. Prime example is KC who hopes they can accomplish both with the acquisition and grooming of Mahomes while remaining a playoff caliber team.

This^^^^

 

Plus the Bills have enough picks that if they want to package them to go after someone they can. I doubt they will break in in the top 5 but they could easily end up in the 5-10 range if the guy they want is there.

[Section242]

Offensive line is going the same way thanks to the spread. It's harder than ever to scout offensive lineman.

 

The NFL is a north / south blocking game traditionally

 

College is east/ west now

 

You must look for specific traits that show how the lineman will translate to the pros... I.E. power I packages...

 

Greg Robinson dominated in a zone read scheme which does not translate to the NFL game. He was all heigjt, weight, athleticism...

 

You must look for specific nuances which translate to the NFl. Cordy Glenn played in an NFL blocking scheme at Georgia. His tape translates betterM

My point is offensive line is a riskier pick than QB, and all picks are risky. If this franchise wants to draft scared than they can top out a 9 wins.

[Buffalo716]

My point is offensive line is a riskier pick than QB, and all picks are risky. If this franchise wants to draft scared than they can top out a 9 wins.

All picks are risky but I would not say Oline is riskier than QB. The hit rate on 1st round lineman over the past 10 years is still higher than QB by a fair amount I'd assume

 

It has nothing to do with drafting scared either. I had a third round grade on Christian Ponder and he went top 12. We need to avoid draftiing ponder or EJ Manuel. It sets us back.

 

They need to draft the RIGHT GUY... not ANY GUY. That's all

 

1st round Lineman= 83% success rate

 

1st round QB= 63%

 

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

 

This was the most recent I could find but either way we just need to avoid the gabberts and ponders of the draft

Edited October 6, 2017 by Buffalo716

[BigDingus]

Hey, will Jim Kelly was drafted 14th overall, and Dan Marino 27th overall, so we can still manage to have a decent season and hit on a 1st round QB

Hell, Aaron Rodgers was drafted 24th overall, so anything's possible!

And we've got the picks to trade up to middle of the first round in case we really want to pull the trigger on someone. Plus there's been plenty of successful QB's drafted after the 1st round, we just have to be one of the smart ones that find them.

Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, Tom Brady, Andy Dalton, Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr, etc. are all starters right now who have been drafted after the first and been pretty darn successful.

[SoTier]

This^^^^

 

Plus the Bills have enough picks that if they want to package them to go after someone they can. I doubt they will break in in the top 5 but they could easily end up in the 5-10 range if the guy they want is there.

 

Trading up for a QB in the first round hasn't been a successful strategy over the last 15 years except once (Giants 2004), and for the Bills (2004), it was a disaster because it precluded them for even considering taking Rodgers the next year. If Taylor continues to play well (and he would have to in order for the Bills to finish below the middle of the pack), then it's not imperative for the Bills to draft a QB in the first round in 2018. If they like a kid and he's available, then they take him. If not, there will be new prospects the following draft.

 

Rather than using all the extra picks to chase after one player who could very well bust, use them to make the team more talented where there's real need ...

 

All picks are risky but I would not say Oline is riskier than QB. The hit rate on 1st round lineman over the past 10 years is still higher than QB by a fair amount I'd assume

 

It has nothing to do with drafting scared either. I had a third round grade on Christian Ponder and he went top 12. We need to avoid draftiing ponder or EJ Manuel. It sets us back.

 

They need to draft the RIGHT GUY... not ANY GUY. That's all

 

1st round Lineman= 83% success rate

 

1st round QB= 63%

 

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

 

This was the most recent I could find but either way we just need to avoid the gabberts and ponders of the draft

 

I totally agree with your post, especially about drafting "the right guy". If a team isn't sure about a kid, passing on him isn't "drafting scared" but drafting smart.

 

More than just avoiding the Gabberts and Ponders, the Bills do NOT need to do a redux of JP Losman, either, where they give up too much for a flawed prospect, including the opportunity to grab a much better prospect if one comes along a year or two later.

 

As for success rates of QBs, I think that article's "success rate" for QBs is probably far more generous than I'd go with. I don't equate starting, even for half their careers, with being a success because we all know that some QBs have been starters only because they were first round picks or because their teams have nobody better. For example, Mark Sanchez has played in 77 games, starting 72. He's been in the league for 8 full years and has been the designated starter for 4 years with the Jests and half a season with Philly. I understand that the author was trying to be objective, but there's no way anybody can seriously consider Sanchez a successful QB.

[Mat68]

What an exciting start out of the gate! However, if the Bills go 10-6 or 11-5, that puts them in a difficult position. Even with a stock of draft picks, there will be numerous teams ahead of us looking for a QB. Obviously the past 17 years has been frustrating but do you have any concerns if we make the playoffs how that could impact us long term at the QB position? At this point, you could list the following teams finishing with worse record looking for a QB:

 

Cleveland, Jets, AZ, San Fran, Miami, San Diego, Jax, Vikings and New Orleans

I disagree. A good run game and a good defense makes an easy transition for a Rookie. Buffalo has alot of picks. If they so choose they could throw alot at a team like San diego or NYG who may want to double down on their aging qb for one last run. I like having Taylor on the roster. He can make big plays but doesnt turn over the ball either. If someone comes on and flat out beats him out than the level of qb is risen. I expect him to go Alex smith. You bring in a rookie we trade up for he may take a leap in play.

[Buffalo716]

Trading up for a QB in the first round hasn't been a successful strategy over the last 15 years except once (Giants 2004), and for the Bills (2004), it was a disaster because it precluded them for even considering taking Rodgers the next year. If Taylor continues to play well (and he would have to in order for the Bills to finish below the middle of the pack), then it's not imperative for the Bills to draft a QB in the first round in 2018. If they like a kid and he's available, then they take him. If not, there will be new prospects the following draft.

 

Rather than using all the extra picks to chase after one player who could very well bust, use them to make the team more talented where there's real need ...

 

 

 

I totally agree with your post, especially about drafting "the right guy". If a team isn't sure about a kid, passing on him isn't "drafting scared" but drafting smart.

 

More than just avoiding the Gabberts and Ponders, the Bills do NOT need to do a redux of JP Losman, either, where they give up too much for a flawed prospect, including the opportunity to grab a much better prospect if one comes along a year or two later.

 

As for success rates of QBs, I think that article's "success rate" for QBs is probably far more generous than I'd go with. I don't equate starting, even for half their careers, with being a success because we all know that some QBs have been starters only because they were first round picks or because their teams have nobody better. For example, Mark Sanchez has played in 77 games, starting 72. He's been in the league for 8 full years and has been the designated starter for 4 years with the Jests and half a season with Philly. I understand that the author was trying to be objective, but there's no way anybody can seriously consider Sanchez a successful QB.

Completely agree

 

I hope beane zeroes in on his guy and takes him. Whether it is round 1 or 2. Find the guy who fits our WCO and develop him