Evaluation of 5 Quarterbacks in the 2017 Draft

[GunnerBill]

I hope the Mods will indulge me posting this as a separate thread rather than including in the 103 very fine pages of discussion around prospects at all positions in the upcoming 2017 draft. I have overpromised this for the last 2 weeks and finally tonight I have put the finishing touches to typing up notes and collating evaluations into some sort of readable and, I hope, digestible format. I've evaluated 5 Quarterbacks entering the 2017 NFL Draft - Deshaun Watson, DeShone Kizer, Mitch Trubisky, Patrick Mahomes and Brad Kaaya. They are the 5 that I have watched sufficient of to feel qualified to give a firm opinion.

 

Let me begin by just making one thing clear - I brought no biases to this process. I do not support a college football team, I have no affinity with any school and I came to it with no desire for the evaluations to confirm any prior thoughts. My process is the same the few years I have been doing this.

 

- At the start of the year I try to work out who the consensus top 4 or 5 potential draft eligible Quarterbacks are;

- I try to watch all of them live at least once during the first half to 2/3s of the college season even if I have seen them play in previous years; DISCLAIMER - I did not see Mahomes live... he came on my radar later.

- Then at the end of October, start of November, I start to go into the video that is available (mainly draftbreakdown.com).

 

I know some people will have read that I am high on Watson and might think my evaluation came after I decided I liked him. It didn't... my excitement about him as a prospect comes post-evaluation and after I started getting into the video in November.

 

So with all that explained.... in no particular order..... here goes:

 

Patrick Mahomes – Junior – Quarterback – Texas Tech

Games watched: Arizona State, Louisiana Tech, Oklahoma (all 2016); Oklahoma, LSU, Kansas State (all 2015)

Initial Comments: One of the difficulties assessing Big 12 Quarterbacks is the standard of defense in the conference is pretty woeful. It certainly results in Mahomes having padded stats but I’ve tried not to hold it against him that he is throwing to wide open guys and focus on where they are catching the ball and how it is placed.

 

Pros:

• Outstanding Arm
• Good mobility but needs to do a better job when flushed out of keeping his eyes down field.
• Good accuracy on slants and crossers
• Likes to get the ball out fast and not afraid to trust his eyes
• Not afraid to take deep shots
• Sells play action well
• Looks like a leader on the field and in the huddle

Cons:

• Ugly feet – inconsistent base, back foot erratic regularly coming up too fast – results in some ugly throws where the balls almost come out sideways
• Action a bit “slingy” and at times a bit sidearm
• Plays in very much a one read system and when his first read isn’t there he demonstrates significant indecision, holds the ball too long and makes poor decisions
• Don’t see him throw enough with anticipation he is a bit reminiscent of Tyrod he wants to see the guy open before letting go of the ball
• Everything is from the shotgun
• Spotty accuracy in the redzone when the windows are tighter

Draft Grade: Mahomes is an intriguing Quarterback with some great physical attributes and good numbers at the college level. However, the footwork issues make him a real project at this stage. Some teams might want to look past that and decide he is rare breed who can success despite his obvious flaws but this is not a Brett Favre or a Matthew Stafford who are coming out with some footwork issues to tidy up…. This is a guy whose feet are flat out a mess. That drops him for me. High 3^rd round

 

 

DeShaun Watson – Junior – Quarterback – Clemson

Games watched: Auburn, Syracuse, Louisville, South Carolina, Alabama (all 2016); Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Alabama (all 2015)

Initial Comments: Despite the focus on a couple of clutch catches from Mike Williams in the National Championship game Watson has consistently been hurt through two years by some big drops from Clemson receivers. Hands are the biggest question mark against Williams as a top 10 pick and both Artavias Scott and Deon Cain have had their fair share too.

 

Pros:

• Throws with anticipation (especially down the seam – a throw he makes as well as any college Quarterback I have evaluated).
• Obvious mobility and playmaking ability with his legs
• Very good ball placement on quick hitters, slants and bubble screens - opportunity for YAC
• Throws the back shoulder fade and corner route well and with decent consistency
• Gives his receivers a chance to make plays
• Showed improvement in key facets in 2016: did much more at the line of scrimmage in getting offense out of bad plays and his footwork became much more consistent
• Does make reads and does it pretty well (though largely in simple concepts)
• Genuine leader, rises to the occasion and plays his best in the biggest moments

Cons:

• Occasional inaccuracy on short, slower developing plays (particularly trail routes and shallow crossers) doesn’t consistently get the ball out in front to allow for YAC and throws picks behind guys
• Almost everything out of the shotgun or pistol
• His footwork looks a little “learned” and can get sketchy when pressure gets there quickly
• Can be a slow starter in games
• Has had a tendency on his 2016 tape to try and force the ball to Mike Williams, this has led to interceptions in 2016 and - almost like Stafford without Megatron in the NFL - he operated more smoothly in 2015 when he was just throwing to the open guy

Draft Grade: DeShaun Watson is a playmaker, a natural leader and a very good passer. The question marks against his progression at the next level should be focused on his footwork against the rush and his transition to a full pro-style offense. Clemson does though run more “pro concepts” than many of the other college spread systems and more than some credit them with and he has shown an ability to make reads within the confines of that system. If he handles that mental transition he will be a franchise Quarterback. Mid 1^st round.

 

 

Mitch Trubisky – Junior – Quarterback – University of North Carolina

Games watched: Georgia, Pittsburgh, Florida State, Duke, Stanford, Virginia Tech

Initial Comments: One of the toughest things when evaluating Trubisky is the lack of experience. You can’t judge progress one year to the next, but you also can’t see how he has reacted to teams trying to defend him differently. I do worry about whether he could step into a huddle of grizzled NFL pros with their jobs on the line and lead.

 

Pros:

• Love his accuracy on the short and intermediate throws
• Throws with anticipation
• Plays in an offense that requires progressions and shows an understanding of that – they are largely simple concepts but he does regularly get to his 2^nd and 3^rd guy
• Doesn’t force the ball, not afraid to throw it away when required, should limit unnecessary turnovers at the next level
• Mobile enough but not by any means a runner
• Calm against pressure
• Seems to have a real penchant for making plays on 3^rd down with either his legs or his arm

Cons:

• One year starter and I think that shows. I noticed a particular problem he has with simulated pressures where defenders show blitz then drop into shallow zones a lot of times I’m not convinced he sees the defenders there ready to jump the route – it led to more than one of the picks I saw and he was lucky it wasn’t more
• Deep ball – doesn’t hit it consistently and for me he lacks that little bit of arm – deep shots look like he is putting his shoulder as well as his arm into the throw and all that motion leads to some inaccuracy and the ball seems to ‘flutter’ especially on deep outs
• Almost everything out of the shotgun
• Footwork seems to get messy on deeper drops – has a tendency to cross his feet in the process of dropping and I wonder how that will affect his balance when he has NFL speed rushers bearing down on him

Draft Grade: On a first look it is tempting to grade Trubisky as a top 10 type prospect. But once you see the flaws in his game they become tough to ignore. He is just a little green and needs to go to a place where they are going to invest in his development and bring him along slowly. He still needs to learn a lot of the mental side of the position and he doesn’t have a cannon of an arm. He will likely go first of the Quarterbacks because he looks tailor made for Kyle Shanahan to get his hands on but he is a bit of a reach at #2 overall. Mid to late 1^st

 

 

DeShone Kizer – Junior – Quarterback – Notre Dame

Games watched: Syracuse, Texas, Michigan State, Stanford (all 2016); Pittsburgh, USC, Temple, Clemson (all 2015)

Initial Comments: The first thing that jumps out you when you put the film of Kizer on is that he is not playing on an especially good team. In neither 2015 nor 2016 would you call his offensive line “good” and his weapons were downgraded in 2016 too. Also not sure the coaching staff ever really worked out what he did best and tailored their scheme to him.

 

Pros:

• Prototypical size
• Really good arm strength and a nice smooth throwing motion with little wasted energy
• Flashes some really good accuracy – especially on corner routes.
• Asked to do more from the shoulders up than any of these other Quarterbacks. Reads and progressions feature in the Notre Dame offense
• Athletic and manipulates the pocket - can make plays with his legs when needed but isn’t “looking” to run
• Doesn’t panic under pressure

Cons:

• I see some what I call “natural inaccuracy” plays where his feet look good, his balance looks good, he has time in the pocket and he still floats balls or throws wide of targets – plays where there is no technical explanation for a bad throw worry me
• Dare I say it? Slow eyes – whilst he is asked to go through progressions he takes sacks and throws picks when there are receivers open that he has had time to get to and hasn’t – some is his protection failing, no doubt, but a lot is on him
• Footwork is inconsistent and like all of these guys he operates mainly from the shotgun
• Don’t see any areas of progression in 2016
• Tendency to “lock on” to receiver and stare them down

Draft Grade: Before I dug back into the film having just watched live games I didn’t really see what scouts saw in Kizer to talk about him as a potential first round Quarterback…. but it is in what he was asked to do. He was asked to process more information on each snap than any of these other Quarterbacks and teams likely hope that would help a transition to the next level. I just don’t think he is a good enough passer at this moment and his inconsistent accuracy would prevent me taking him in the 1^st. I think Kizer’s physical tools and ceiling make him a good choice for a team who want to sit a guy for a year….. Arizona in the 2^nd would be the ideal spot for him. Mid 2nd round

 

 

Brad Kaaya – Junior – Quarterback – Miami

Games watched: Notre Dame, Appalachian State, North Carolina (all 2016); Florida State, Washington State, Virginia (all 2015)

Initial Comments: As with Kizer you find yourself trying to evaluate Kaaya through the prism of a pretty poor woeful line and an average bunch of skill position players (apart from Tight End David Njoku who I think has declared and who is a very interesting prospect who I intend to dig some more into). Where he is different from Kizer is the offense he plays in seems to be designed around his strengths – that leaves you wondering at times whether the plays you don’t see are because the coaches know he can’t execute.

 

Pros:

• Very accurate short passer
• Does a little bit (normally play action) from under centre
• Footwork is pretty tidy in comparison to the other Quarterbacks in this class – not perfect but tidy and consistent
• Lot of quick hitters in the offense but like Clemson there are some of the more simple modern pro concepts and reads incorporated
• Nice, compact, quick release
• Keeps his eyes down the field really well on rollouts and when occasionally flushed out of the pocket
• Tough – takes a lot of hits and bounces right back up

Cons:

• Only an average arm. Struggles to complete anything beyond 15-20 yards in the air and even when he does those balls are generally underthrown with receivers slowing up or coming back into coverage to grab them. Against better corners in the NFL they are picks.
• Struggles badly under pressure – tendency to panic and throw picks, take sacks or commit intentional grounding – looks to me like the cause of this may be him staring at the rush
• Limited use of the middle of the field
• Just do not see the “wow” throws that all of the other 4 Quarterbacks I am comparing him to here have – for example he doesn’t hit the back shoulder fade, the deep out, the corner route or the deep seam

Draft Grade: Brad Kaaya is a really nice Quarterback…. He just doesn’t have the raw materials of some of his contemporaries in this draft. He is the least mobile and has the weakest arm of the five Quarterbacks I have evaluated in detail for this piece. I think the kid is clever, reasonably technically sound and tough. But he is also limited. I have given him a slightly better grade than I gave to Cody Kessler last year and I see some similarities. I had Kessler as a 5^th rounder, I have Kaaya as a 4^th rounder but Kessler snuck into the back of the 3^rd with the Browns compensatory pick. It wouldn’t shock me if Kaaya went at a similar point. I think he ends up as a nice #2 for someone around the NFL and maybe becomes one of the leagues more dependable backups. 4^th Round

 

 

 

So there you have it. That is what I think. I know loads of you disagree on one or more of the guys I've tried to break down so let me have it.... do your worst.

 

[FireChan]

Awesome stuff. Love the breakdowns and speculation.

 

I mostly watched Watson this year and I think you nailed him.

[mead107]

Good work.

[Kirby Jackson]

Great stuff Gunner and thanks for doing it!!

[BarleyNY]

Thanks sharing your hard work.

[Maury Ballstein]

Mitch or Deshaun would make me happy.

 

No love for Chad Kelly ?

[I_want_2_BILL_Lieve]

Outstanding work.

 

QBs are so over valued in the draft. While you list them where they SHOULD be, most assuredly, they will be picked earlier than listed. Still, this was an excellent read.

[JohnC]

I hope the Mods will indulge me posting this as a separate thread rather than including in the 103 very fine pages of discussion around prospects at all positions in the upcoming 2017 draft. I have overpromised this for the last 2 weeks and finally tonight I have put the finishing touches to typing up notes and collating evaluations into some sort of readable and, I hope, digestible format. I've evaluated 5 Quarterbacks entering the 2017 NFL Draft - Deshaun Watson, DeShone Kizer, Mitch Trubisky, Patrick Mahomes and Brad Kaaya. They are the 5 that I have watched sufficient of to feel qualified to give a firm opinion.

 

Let me begin by just making one thing clear - I brought no biases to this process. I do not support a college football team, I have no affinity with any school and I came to it with no desire for the evaluations to confirm any prior thoughts. My process is the same the few years I have been doing this.

 

- At the start of the year I try to work out who the consensus top 4 or 5 potential draft eligible Quarterbacks are;

- I try to watch all of them live at least once during the first half to 2/3s of the college season even if I have seen them play in previous years; DISCLAIMER - I did not see Mahomes live... he came on my radar later.

- Then at the end of October, start of November, I start to go into the video that is available (mainly draftbreakdown.com).

 

I know some people will have read that I am high on Watson and might think my evaluation came after I decided I liked him. It didn't... my excitement about him as a prospect comes post-evaluation and after I started getting into the video in November.

 

So with all that explained.... in no particular order..... here goes:

 

Patrick Mahomes – Junior – Quarterback – Texas Tech

Games watched: Arizona State, Louisiana Tech, Oklahoma (all 2016); Oklahoma, LSU, Kansas State (all 2015)

Initial Comments: One of the difficulties assessing Big 12 Quarterbacks is the standard of defense in the conference is pretty woeful. It certainly results in Mahomes having padded stats but I’ve tried not to hold it against him that he is throwing to wide open guys and focus on where they are catching the ball and how it is placed.

 

Pros:

• Outstanding Arm
• Good mobility but needs to do a better job when flushed out of keeping his eyes down field.
• Good accuracy on slants and crossers
• Likes to get the ball out fast and not afraid to trust his eyes
• Not afraid to take deep shots
• Sells play action well
• Looks like a leader on the field and in the huddle

Cons:

• Ugly feet – inconsistent base, back foot erratic regularly coming up too fast – results in some ugly throws where the balls almost come out sideways
• Action a bit “slingy” and at times a bit sidearm
• Plays in very much a one read system and when his first read isn’t there he demonstrates significant indecision, holds the ball too long and makes poor decisions
• Don’t see him throw enough with anticipation he is a bit reminiscent of Tyrod he wants to see the guy open before letting go of the ball
• Everything is from the shotgun
• Spotty accuracy in the redzone when the windows are tighter

Draft Grade: Mahomes is an intriguing Quarterback with some great physical attributes and good numbers at the college level. However, the footwork issues make him a real project at this stage. Some teams might want to look past that and decide he is rare breed who can success despite his obvious flaws but this is not a Brett Favre or a Matthew Stafford who are coming out with some footwork issues to tidy up…. This is a guy whose feet are flat out a mess. That drops him for me. High 3^rd round

 

 

DeShaun Watson – Junior – Quarterback – Clemson

Games watched: Auburn, Syracuse, Louisville, South Carolina, Alabama (all 2016); Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Alabama (all 2015)

Initial Comments: Despite the focus on a couple of clutch catches from Mike Williams in the National Championship game Watson has consistently been hurt through two years by some big drops from Clemson receivers. Hands are the biggest question mark against Williams as a top 10 pick and both Artavias Scott and Deon Cain have had their fair share too.

 

Pros:

• Throws with anticipation (especially down the seam – a throw he makes as well as any college Quarterback I have evaluated).
• Obvious mobility and playmaking ability with his legs
• Very good ball placement on quick hitters, slants and bubble screens - opportunity for YAC
• Throws the back shoulder fade and corner route well and with decent consistency
• Gives his receivers a chance to make plays
• Showed improvement in key facets in 2016: did much more at the line of scrimmage in getting offense out of bad plays and his footwork became much more consistent
• Does make reads and does it pretty well (though largely in simple concepts)
• Genuine leader, rises to the occasion and plays his best in the biggest moments

Cons:

• Occasional inaccuracy on short, slower developing plays (particularly trail routes and shallow crossers) doesn’t consistently get the ball out in front to allow for YAC and throws picks behind guys
• Almost everything out of the shotgun or pistol
• His footwork looks a little “learned” and can get sketchy when pressure gets there quickly
• Can be a slow starter in games
• Has had a tendency on his 2016 tape to try and force the ball to Mike Williams, this has led to interceptions in 2016 and - almost like Stafford without Megatron in the NFL - he operated more smoothly in 2015 when he was just throwing to the open guy

Draft Grade: DeShaun Watson is a playmaker, a natural leader and a very good passer. The question marks against his progression at the next level should be focused on his footwork against the rush and his transition to a full pro-style offense. Clemson does though run more “pro concepts” than many of the other college spread systems and more than some credit them with and he has shown an ability to make reads within the confines of that system. If he handles that mental transition he will be a franchise Quarterback. Mid 1^st round.

 

 

Mitch Trubisky – Junior – Quarterback – University of North Carolina

Games watched: Georgia, Pittsburgh, Florida State, Duke, Stanford, Virginia Tech

Initial Comments: One of the toughest things when evaluating Trubisky is the lack of experience. You can’t judge progress one year to the next, but you also can’t see how he has reacted to teams trying to defend him differently. I do worry about whether he could step into a huddle of grizzled NFL pros with their jobs on the line and lead.

 

Pros:

• Love his accuracy on the short and intermediate throws
• Throws with anticipation
• Plays in an offense that requires progressions and shows an understanding of that – they are largely simple concepts but he does regularly get to his 2^nd and 3^rd guy
• Doesn’t force the ball, not afraid to throw it away when required, should limit unnecessary turnovers at the next level
• Mobile enough but not by any means a runner
• Calm against pressure
• Seems to have a real penchant for making plays on 3^rd down with either his legs or his arm

Cons:

• One year starter and I think that shows. I noticed a particular problem he has with simulated pressures where defenders show blitz then drop into shallow zones a lot of times I’m not convinced he sees the defenders there ready to jump the route – it led to more than one of the picks I saw and he was lucky it wasn’t more
• Deep ball – doesn’t hit it consistently and for me he lacks that little bit of arm – deep shots look like he is putting his shoulder as well as his arm into the throw and all that motion leads to some inaccuracy and the ball seems to ‘flutter’ especially on deep outs
• Almost everything out of the shotgun
• Footwork seems to get messy on deeper drops – has a tendency to cross his feet in the process of dropping and I wonder how that will affect his balance when he has NFL speed rushers bearing down on him

Draft Grade: On a first look it is tempting to grade Trubisky as a top 10 type prospect. But once you see the flaws in his game they become tough to ignore. He is just a little green and needs to go to a place where they are going to invest in his development and bring him along slowly. He still needs to learn a lot of the mental side of the position and he doesn’t have a cannon of an arm. He will likely go first of the Quarterbacks because he looks tailor made for Kyle Shanahan to get his hands on but he is a bit of a reach at #2 overall. Mid to late 1^st

 

 

DeShone Kizer – Junior – Quarterback – Notre Dame

Games watched: Syracuse, Texas, Michigan State, Stanford (all 2016); Pittsburgh, USC, Temple, Clemson (all 2015)

Initial Comments: The first thing that jumps out you when you put the film of Kizer on is that he is not playing on an especially good team. In neither 2015 nor 2016 would you call his offensive line “good” and his weapons were downgraded in 2016 too. Also not sure the coaching staff ever really worked out what he did best and tailored their scheme to him.

 

Pros:

• Prototypical size
• Really good arm strength and a nice smooth throwing motion with little wasted energy
• Flashes some really good accuracy – especially on corner routes.
• Asked to do more from the shoulders up than any of these other Quarterbacks. Reads and progressions feature in the Notre Dame offense
• Athletic and manipulates the pocket - can make plays with his legs when needed but isn’t “looking” to run
• Doesn’t panic under pressure

Cons:

• I see some what I call “natural inaccuracy” plays where his feet look good, his balance looks good, he has time in the pocket and he still floats balls or throws wide of targets – plays where there is no technical explanation for a bad throw worry me
• Dare I say it? Slow eyes – whilst he is asked to go through progressions he takes sacks and throws picks when there are receivers open that he has had time to get to and hasn’t – some is his protection failing, no doubt, but a lot is on him
• Footwork is inconsistent and like all of these guys he operates mainly from the shotgun
• Don’t see any areas of progression in 2016
• Tendency to “lock on” to receiver and stare them down

Draft Grade: Before I dug back into the film having just watched live games I didn’t really see what scouts saw in Kizer to talk about him as a potential first round Quarterback…. but it is in what he was asked to do. He was asked to process more information on each snap than any of these other Quarterbacks and teams likely hope that would help a transition to the next level. I just don’t think he is a good enough passer at this moment and his inconsistent accuracy would prevent me taking him in the 1^st. I think Kizer’s physical tools and ceiling make him a good choice for a team who want to sit a guy for a year….. Arizona in the 2^nd would be the ideal spot for him. Mid 2nd round

 

 

Brad Kaaya – Junior – Quarterback – Miami

Games watched: Notre Dame, Appalachian State, North Carolina (all 2016); Florida State, Washington State, Virginia (all 2015)

Initial Comments: As with Kizer you find yourself trying to evaluate Kaaya through the prism of a pretty poor woeful line and an average bunch of skill position players (apart from Tight End David Njoku who I think has declared and who is a very interesting prospect who I intend to dig some more into). Where he is different from Kizer is the offense he plays in seems to be designed around his strengths – that leaves you wondering at times whether the plays you don’t see are because the coaches know he can’t execute.

 

Pros:

• Very accurate short passer
• Does a little bit (normally play action) from under centre
• Footwork is pretty tidy in comparison to the other Quarterbacks in this class – not perfect but tidy and consistent
• Lot of quick hitters in the offense but like Clemson there are some of the more simple modern pro concepts and reads incorporated
• Nice, compact, quick release
• Keeps his eyes down the field really well on rollouts and when occasionally flushed out of the pocket
• Tough – takes a lot of hits and bounces right back up

Cons:

• Only an average arm. Struggles to complete anything beyond 15-20 yards in the air and even when he does those balls are generally underthrown with receivers slowing up or coming back into coverage to grab them. Against better corners in the NFL they are picks.
• Struggles badly under pressure – tendency to panic and throw picks, take sacks or commit intentional grounding – looks to me like the cause of this may be him staring at the rush
• Limited use of the middle of the field
• Just do not see the “wow” throws that all of the other 4 Quarterbacks I am comparing him to here have – for example he doesn’t hit the back shoulder fade, the deep out, the corner route or the deep seam

Draft Grade: Brad Kaaya is a really nice Quarterback…. He just doesn’t have the raw materials of some of his contemporaries in this draft. He is the least mobile and has the weakest arm of the five Quarterbacks I have evaluated in detail for this piece. I think the kid is clever, reasonably technically sound and tough. But he is also limited. I have given him a slightly better grade than I gave to Cody Kessler last year and I see some similarities. I had Kessler as a 5^th rounder, I have Kaaya as a 4^th rounder but Kessler snuck into the back of the 3^rd with the Browns compensatory pick. It wouldn’t shock me if Kaaya went at a similar point. I think he ends up as a nice #2 for someone around the NFL and maybe becomes one of the leagues more dependable backups. 4^th Round

 

 

 

So there you have it. That is what I think. I know loads of you disagree on one or more of the guys I've tried to break down so let me have it.... do your worst.

 

Great job.

 

If Trubinsky or Watson is available when our pick comes up and neither one is selected Whaley should be charged with dereliction of duty. I wouldn't be against trading down and selecting Mahomes. I see Houston selecting him with their lower first round pick. There will be plenty of DBs available with our second round pick to choose from.

 

Odds are that Whaley is going to select a DB. The Dick Jauron mentality of caution and timidity will continue to plague this organization. There is a reason why this franchise is irrelevant and boring.

[hondo in seattle]

GB, this is very nicely done.

 

I appreciate that you watched 6-8 games of each prospect. That's more than some media guys do. And you seem to know what you're looking for.

 

I now know far more about these 5 young men than I did before.

[GunnerBill]

GB, this is very nicely done.

 

I appreciate that you watched 6-8 games of each prospect. That's more than some media guys do. And you seem to know what you're looking for.

 

I now know far more about these 5 young men than I did before.

I should also have said I made an effort to make sure I had watched good games and bad games of each to try and get a fair balance. I ended up watching a lot more Kizer than some of the others. He was the one it took me longest to get my handle on.

[thebandit27]

Great stuff as always Gunner.

 

We're fairly close on these guys, as you'll see in another month or so when I start rolling out my evaluations

[Coach Tuesday]

Nice work.

[Kirby Jackson]

I should also have said I made an effort to make sure I had watched good games and bad games of each to try and get a fair balance. I ended up watching a lot more Kizer than some of the others. He was the one it took me longest to get my handle on.

Just out of curiosity what did your rankings look like last year? How does this class stack up?

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

Spot on Gunner. Your thoughts match up with what I've seen of all these guys.

[Marty McFly]

I hope the Mods will indulge me posting this as a separate thread rather than including in the 103 very fine pages of discussion around prospects at all positions in the upcoming 2017 draft. I have overpromised this for the last 2 weeks and finally tonight I have put the finishing touches to typing up notes and collating evaluations into some sort of readable and, I hope, digestible format. I've evaluated 5 Quarterbacks entering the 2017 NFL Draft - Deshaun Watson, DeShone Kizer, Mitch Trubisky, Patrick Mahomes and Brad Kaaya. They are the 5 that I have watched sufficient of to feel qualified to give a firm opinion.

 

So there you have it. That is what I think. I know loads of you disagree on one or more of the guys I've tried to break down so let me have it.... do your worst.

 

 

Real Good work here. Thanks for the breakdown. I agree on where you have them ranked as far as what round they should go in but, with the league starved for QBs they will go much higher than their actual value is. Im sure you know that tho, beers on me!

[LeGOATski]

Great job.

 

If Trubinsky or Watson is available when our pick comes up and neither one is selected Whaley should be charged with dereliction of duty. I wouldn't be against trading down and selecting Mahomes. I see Houston selecting him with their lower first round pick. There will be plenty of DBs available with our second round pick to choose from.

 

Odds are that Whaley is going to select a DB. The Dick Jauron mentality of caution and timidity will continue to plague this organization. There is a reason why this franchise is irrelevant and boring.

Haha...you have no idea how good these QBs will be. If Whaley picked one and they sucked, I bet you would be one to call for his head.

 

IMO, Trubisky is a 3 year project. Something football fans (or team management, for that matter) don't seem to have the patience for.

[Alphadawg7]

Great job, really enjoyed reading this.

 

Few interesting points to take from your conclusions that I think pretty much align with most thoughts around this QB class.

 

1. You don't have anyone rated better than a mid first round pick and there isn't a lot separating either of the top 3 QB's in this draft.

2. Even in a year where several high drafting teams desperately need a QB, none of the prospects grade out well enough to go in the top 10 based on overall rating which is very consistent with most analysis of this draft class. Doesn't mean 1 or more wont go high, just reconfirms the overall consensus that this isnt a good year to need to take a QB high in the draft.

3. This also further illustrates that this draft class for QB's is relatively weak going in and not a good year to be looking for a QB in general by most accounts.

 

What I really appreciated was the acknowledgement that of the QB's, Watson appears to be your favorite of the bunch, yet you didn't let that interfere with your ranking and didn't over exaggerate it and stayed true to your personal evaluation. Nice job with that and much respect to you bud!

 

Personally I think Kizer will be the first QB taken because of his physical attributes and I wouldn't be surprised if he was the only one that went in the first round. Its a weird year...the class isn't strong but there are several very QB needy teams...so kind of hard to predict how many go in the first as QB is the position teams reach for the most in need.

Edited January 31, 2017 by Alphadawg7

[yungmack]

What a lot of work you put in. I'm very impressed.

 

I've watched every one of them as well but with nothing of the attention to detail you have. While I can sort of see why you placed the draft positions on four of them, I must say I really don't get the amount of love Trubisky gets from so many who analyze these guys. If I personally had to pick a project QB, I would go with, say, Davis Webb, who I've also watched a bunch and who seems miles ahead of Ol' Mitch.

[JohnC]

Haha...you have no idea how good these QBs will be. If Whaley picked one and they sucked, I bet you would be one to call for his head.

 

IMO, Trubisky is a 3 year project. Something football fans (or team management, for that matter) don't seem to have the patience for.

It doesn't matter where a player is ranked or what position a player plays you never know for sure if the player is going to turn out to be a good pro. So using your standard don't draft anyone because you don't know if they will be good. Odd reasoning to follow.

 

So what if Trubisky is a three year project? Rodgers wasn't an immediate success and neither was Brees. Cousins didn't start playing until his fourth year. There is a development stage to all positions but especially for the qb position.

[John from Riverside]

so maybe

 

if we are rebiulding.....watson?

 

if we bring back tt....mohones?

[BuffaloRebound]

I think Watson could be as good as Taylor immediately. Use the almost $20m per year on that tradeoff and sign a starting caliber RT and a legit #2 WR.

[John from Riverside]

I think Watson could be as good as Taylor immediately. Use the almost $20m per year on that tradeoff and sign a starting caliber RT and a legit #2 WR.

i dont....but if they are rebiulding that does not really matter

[Punching Bag]

Nice report. One thing I did not see in tour report is how weather appears to affect each of them. Some QBs are only successful in domes or for warm weather teams.

[Maury Ballstein]

I think Watson could be as good as Taylor immediately. Use the almost $20m per year on that tradeoff and sign a starting caliber RT and a legit #2 WR.

Easily.

[BobbyC81]

Great analysis OP. Thanks for putting the time in on this.

 

Jaws would be impressed.

Edited January 31, 2017 by LittleJoeCartwright

[ice2145]

Good work Gunner. I am hoping we don't take a QB at 10. I am not high on any of these propects.

[Mark Vader]

Splendid job, Gunner.

 

I loved your analysis. I did not watch these guys in as many games as you did.

 

Personally, I do not want any of these QB's, nor any other QB in this draft.

 

I think we would be wasting a draft pick. If the Bills want to draft a QB in the 5th or 6th round, fine. Otherwise, stay away.

 

I really look forward to your analysis of next year's QB class. Which should be far greater than this years.

[DallasMac]

Thanks Gunner. Very well done analysis.

[GunnerBill]

Just out of curiosity what did your rankings look like last year? How does this class stack up?

So I had two first round grades on Quarterbacks last year - the two that were picked 1 & 2. Watson has a higher grade than both. I suppose that is why I have a hard time with the "terribke year to take a Quarterback" talk. I don't think there is anyone here you trade up for but I hated the two trade ups last year and yet they happened..... and but for Wentz's first 4 or 5 games it hasn't gone great.

 

A combined ranking of 2016 and 2017 reads:

 

-------Rd 1

1. Watson

2. Goff

3. Trubisky

4. Wentz

-------Rd 2

5. Lynch

6. Kizer

7. Cook

8. Prescott

----------Rd 3

9. Mahomes

----------Rd 4

10. Jones

11. Kaaya

12. Hackenburg

----------Rd 5

13. Kessler

[long suffering bills fan]

Thank you for the analysis. This just reinforces my belief that we should keep TT and draft a WR and CB in rounds 1 and 2. Draft a qb next year.

[sjjr]

Good analysis. Watson is the best QB in this draft and its not close. Mahomes reminds me of Fitzpatrick. Any analysis on Evans from VT?

[1billsfan]

Thank you for the analysis. This just reinforces my belief that we should keep TT and draft a WR and CB in rounds 1 and 2. Draft a qb next year.

 

Let's say the Bills keep Taylor and draft their franchise QB next year. Taylor will be using up 17 million dollars of the Bills cap space in 2018. Do you really think the Bills are not going to start their QB right away in 2018? Wouldn't that money be of much better use to spend on OL and the rest of the roster to help out a rookie QB? How foolish would it be to have a 17 million dollar backup QB?

 

I think Taylor fans are in for a rude awakening. His huge salary just doesn't fit where this team is heading at all. They're most probably looking for their franchise QB within these next two drafts and Taylor's way too expensive to have as a QB whose just a "keeping the seat warm QB" for the real guy they want.

Edited January 31, 2017 by 1billsfan

[aristocrat]

 

Let's say the Bills keep Taylor and draft their franchise QB next year. Taylor will be using up 17 million dollars of the Bills cap space in 2018. Do you really think the Bills are not going to start their QB right away in 2018? Wouldn't that money be of much better use to spend on OL and the rest of the roster to help out a rookie QB? How foolish would it be to have a 17 million dollar backup QB?

 

I think Taylor fans are in for a rude awakening. His huge salary just doesn't fit where this team is heading at all. They're most probably looking for their franchise QB within these next two drafts and Taylor's way too expensive to have as a QB whose just a "keeping the seat warm QB" for the real guy they want.

 

yes but like the cowboys with dak and romo they will have to eat romo's hit for one year or maybe two years if the cowboys decide to split the cap hit over two years. the bills could keep tyrod on the roster next year or even trade him. The safe play is to keep tyrod and then deal with the dead cap should we get the franchise guy...cause that guy in theory will be here for 15 years.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

Let's say the Bills keep Taylor and draft their franchise QB next year. Taylor will be using up 17 million dollars of the Bills cap space in 2018. Do you really think the Bills are not going to start their QB right away in 2018? Wouldn't that money be of much better use to spend on OL and the rest of the roster to help out a rookie QB? How foolish would it be to have a 17 million dollar backup QB?

 

I think Taylor fans are in for a rude awakening. His huge salary just doesn't fit where this team is heading at all. They're most probably looking for their franchise QB within these next two drafts and Taylor's way too expensive to have as a QB whose just a "keeping the seat warm QB" for the real guy they want.

I think that if they wait until 2018 Tyrod will almost assuredly be back (I think that he will anyways with the Dennison hire). If they pick up the option, $$27.5M is guaranteed in 2017, $6.35M in 2018 (another $9.75M on the 3rd day of the league year in 2018) and other than that it is $3.1M in 2019, 2020 & 2021. You will probably be keeping him through 2018 because there is no reason to pay a $30.75M for 1 year when you can get him for another $9.75M in year 2. After that all bets are off. Taylor's contract is structured in a way that after 2018 the Bills can walk away with very little penalty.

 

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/tyrod-taylor-7899/

Edited January 31, 2017 by Kirby Jackson

[Maury Ballstein]

Thank you for the analysis. This just reinforces my belief that we should keep TT and draft a WR and CB in rounds 1 and 2. Draft a qb next year.

[1billsfan]

 

yes but like the cowboys with dak and romo they will have to eat romo's hit for one year or maybe two years if the cowboys decide to split the cap hit over two years. the bills could keep tyrod on the roster next year or even trade him. The safe play is to keep tyrod and then deal with the dead cap should we get the franchise guy...cause that guy in theory will be here for 15 years.

 

Taylor isn't Romo. There's a huge difference there. I think you're overvaluing Taylor. You see him as a solid starter worth about 15 million a year. I see him as a cheap, journeyman type of free agent starting QB who will provide a team stability and credibility from hitting bottom, but will never be the solution for a team with high expectations.

 

No team would trade for Taylor with that contract. If you pick up the option, you're stuck with that 17 million next year and are basically doing so knowing he most probably won't be the starting QB in 2018. Look at the 2017 schedule and tell me how many wins you'd expect and would that be enough for Taylor to keep his job.

Edited January 31, 2017 by 1billsfan

[GunnerBill]

Good analysis. Watson is the best QB in this draft and its not close. Mahomes reminds me of Fitzpatrick. Any analysis on Evans from VT?

 

Thanks.

 

I agree Watson is clearly ahead, although I am probably higher on Trubisky than I was at the start of my video evaluations.

I don't see Mahomes / Fitz at all.... Mahomes has a cannon Fitz didn't even have a pea shooter.... interested to know what the comparison is you see? Gunslinger mentality maybe?

I've not watched anything at all of Evans. I will at some point but probably not in this depth.

Nice breakdown.

 

I was under the impression justa about all of these guys would be taken before the Bills pick?

 

I'm assuming their stock will rise as the draft approaches.

 

Still a very good chance that Trubisky and Watson are gone in my mind. Kizer is a little bit of a wildcard and I think he could kind of go anywhere between the top 5 and the 3rd round. There is talk teams are high on him. I touch on why in my breakdown but for me somewhere like Arizona makes sense early in the 2nd, downfield passing game, make use of his strong arm, veteran soon to need replacing.... or maybe even Pittsburgh at the end of the 1st (especially with Big Ben playing a few games about returning). I wouldn't hate either of those teams making that move. Taking him with a top 10 pick would be crazy for me based on what he shows on tape but it could happen.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

Taylor isn't Romo. There's a huge difference there. I think you're overvaluing Taylor. You see him as a solid starter worth about 15 million a year. I see him as a cheap, journeyman type of free agent starting QB who will provide a team stability and credibility from hitting bottom, but will never be the solution for a team with high expectations.

 

No team would trade for Taylor with that contract. If you pick up the option, you're stuck with that 17 million next year and are basically doing so knowing he most probably won't be the starting QB in 2018. Look at the 2017 schedule and tell me how many wins you'd expect and would that be enough for Taylor to keep his job.

Just for the sake of consistency do you view Flacco, Smith, Tannehill and Dalton the same way? Here is the comparison of those guys over the last 2 years: http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/191527-oj-howard-at-10-anyone/?p=4236300

 

If you view all of those guys as cheap journeymen guys then it is fine. I view them as middle of the road NFL starters and there is a big difference there. It is easy to upgrade from a "cheap journeyman type" (Hoyer, Fitz) but it is difficult to upgrade from decent starter (Tannehill, Smith, Dalton). I am 100% fine moving on if we are getting that franchise guy. I don't see him in this draft but I am wrong a lot. We just need to be careful about convincing ourselves that TT is something that he is not. He is not Brian Hoyer, he is more like Ryan Tannehill (but with half the picks). You can certainly upgrade from those guys but you can easily downgrade as well.

Edited January 31, 2017 by Kirby Jackson

[1billsfan]

Just for the sake of consistency do you view Flacco, Smith, Tannehill and Dalton the same way? Here is the comparison of those guys over the last 2 years: http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/191527-oj-howard-at-10-anyone/?p=4236300

 

If you view all of those guys as cheap journey guys then it is fine. I view them as middle of the road NFL starters and there is a big difference there. It is easy to upgrade from a "cheap journeyman type" (Hoyer, Fitz) but it is difficult to upgrade from decent starter (Tannehill, Smith, Dalton). I am 100% fine moving on if we are getting that franchise guy. I don't see him in this draft but I am wrong a lot. We just need to be careful about convincing ourselves that TT is something that he is not. He is not Brian Hoyer, he is more like Ryan Tannehill (but with half the picks). You can certainly upgrade from those guys but you can easily downgrade as well.

 

I think he's Fitzpatrick. Yes, he throws a ton more picks than Taylor, but his chance taking and using all of his receivers evens things out. Regardless, they both are ok QBs that give you some hope, but you know they aren't the QB to get you to that contending level you want to be.

[Maury Ballstein]

I think he's Fitzpatrick. Yes, he throws a ton more picks than Taylor, but his chance taking and using all of his receivers evens things out. Regardless, they both are ok QBs that give you some hope, but you know they aren't the QB to get you to that contending level you want to be.

agree 100%. It's a diff type of helplessness. Feels same as Fitz.