Evaluation of 5 Quarterbacks in the 2017 Draft

[Kirby Jackson]

 

I think he's Fitzpatrick. Yes, he throws a ton more picks than Taylor, but his chance taking and using all of his receivers evens things out. Regardless, they both are ok QBs that give you some hope, but you know they aren't the QB to get you to that contending level you want to be.

Where do you have him compared to Flacco, Smith, Dalton and Tannehill? Those guys are the ones that actually compare to him (as evidenced above). Our biases may say Fitzpatrick but while Fitzpatrick was only 4 Tds behind TT over the last 2 years he has 32 INTs to Taylor's 12. I am not sure how that is alike? By comparison Dalton has 50 TDs and 15 INTs, Taylor has 47 TDs and 12 INTs, that is alike.

[JohnC]

So I had two first round grades on Quarterbacks last year - the two that were picked 1 & 2. Watson has a higher grade than both. I suppose that is why I have a hard time with the "terribke year to take a Quarterback" talk. I don't think there is anyone here you trade up for but I hated the two trade ups last year and yet they happened..... and but for Wentz's first 4 or 5 games it hasn't gone great.

 

A combined ranking of 2016 and 2017 reads:

 

-------Rd 1

1. Watson

2. Goff

3. Trubisky

4. Wentz

-------Rd 2

5. Lynch

6. Kizer

7. Cook

8. Prescott

----------Rd 3

9. Mahomes

----------Rd 4

10. Jones

11. Kaaya

12. Hackenburg

----------Rd 5

13. Kessler

And the Bills select Cardale Jones. Cook and Prescott were available in the third round last year. Instead, Whaley selected a lazy and immature DT who was constantly being chastised by his own team for being lazy and immature. What a surprise!

 

The Bills have had plenty of opportunities to bring in good qb prospects. They let those opportunities pass them by. I'm not sure that they are capable enough to properly scout that position .

[H2o]

Great work Gunner. Can't say there is much I disagree with in your assessments. Quality contribution to the board my friend.

[Kirby Jackson]

And the Bills select Cardale Jones. Cook and Prescott were available in the third round last year. Instead, Whaley selected a lazy and immature DT who was constantly being chastised by his own team for being lazy and immature. What a surprise!

 

The Bills have had plenty of opportunities to bring in good qb prospects. They let those opportunities pass them by. I'm not sure that they are capable enough to properly scout that position .

I think that Cook stinks and has a bad attitude. The guy was a 4 year starter at MSU at QB and wasn't voted a captain. In addition, his dad is a HUGE A-hole that makes old man Brady look like a nice guy. I would not mind his sister being around though. He is not a good QB prospect. He lacks the leadership that the position takes.

Cardale is the lottery ticket. There are a lot of similarities to Mahomes. Both can make every throw and have insane tools. Mahomes has shown more consistency but not nearly the consistency to be a star at the next level. Cardale has started his development. He was always a high ceiling, low floor prospect. Cook was a guy that on his best day had a CHANCE to be Andy Dalton. TT is already producing at that Dalton level so there is no need for more of that. Cardale is a guy that has a legit chance to be a franchise QB. He also could be out of the league. For all of the people on here clamoring for a franchise QB I cant believe that anyone would take issue with Cardale? He is the guy that has the ceiling to get there.

[1billsfan]

Where do you have him compared to Flacco, Smith, Dalton and Tannehill? Those guys are the ones that actually compare to him (as evidenced above). Our biases may say Fitzpatrick but while Fitzpatrick was only 4 Tds behind TT over the last 2 years he has 32 INTs to Taylor's 12. I am not sure how that is alike? By comparison Dalton has 50 TDs and 15 INTs, Taylor has 47 TDs and 12 INTs, that is alike.

 

He's a level below those guys. Stats are not the end all be all when comparing players, especially in the NFL. Specifically with Dalton, he has shown the ability to beat good teams, pull out wins in crunch time and get his team into the playoffs. That's what puts those players a level above a QB like Taylor who would need an almost perfect team around him to beat good teams and win consistently.

Edited January 31, 2017 by 1billsfan

[JohnC]

Great work Gunner. Can't say there is much I disagree with in your assessments. Quality contribution to the board my friend.

Let me echo your accolades for Gunner. This was fantastic work. When reading his reports they seemed to hit the mark on the strengths and weaknesses of each qb.

 

I 'm sure he didn't intend it but he is making me more of a zealot in pushing for taking a qb in this year's draft. So when I continue with my campaign blame him for creating this intolerable nuisance.

 

I'm not saying this to flatter him and I mean it with sincerity that he seems to have a better grasp on how to evaluate qbs than the Bills scouting departing does.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

He's a level below those guys. Stats are not the end all be all when comparing players, especially in the NFL. Specifically with Dalton, he has shown the ability to beat good teams, pull out wins in crunch time and get his team into the playoffs. That's what puts those players a level above a QB like Taylor who would need an almost perfect team around him to beat good teams and win consistently.

The Bills scored more this year than Miami, KC, Baltimore and Cincy. What are you basing those guys being a tier up on other than what you think you are seeing? Every metric supports Taylor being right with those guys and an upgrade in many cases. A lot of people on here have convinced themselves that he is like Fitz but the facts say he's like Dalton (stats above).

 

Over the last 2 years he has a better record (15-14 to 14-15), 2 more TDs (47 to 45) and half of the INTs (12 to 24) of Tannehill yet we are supposed to believe he is a tier below him? Based on what?

Edited January 31, 2017 by Kirby Jackson

[BuffaloFan68]

Great article - Thanks for putting it together. Watson seems to be a bit of a mix between Geno Smith and Tyrod Taylor in my book. I didn't like TT at VA Tech and I'm not much of a fan now but I do understand the fit he gives defenses. While I feel Trubisky is the best QB in the draft, I would love to land Hooker or Williams in the first and grab Mahomes in the 2nd if he ever falls that far (I doubt it). With that being said, I would also be happy if we end up landing Watson in the 1st since he does seem to have more of an "It" factor than TT. Watson performs well under pressure while TT seems to disappear much like Trentative.

Let's Go Buffalo!!!!!

[billykaykay]

 

He's a level below those guys. Stats are not the end all be all when comparing players, especially in the NFL. Specifically with Dalton, he has shown the ability to beat good teams, pull out wins in crunch time and get his team into the playoffs. That's what puts those players a level above a QB like Taylor who would need an almost perfect team around him to beat good teams and win consistentl

Did you see Dalton vs the Bills ? At home against our bottom half D, he looked pretty bad.

[GunnerBill]

 

I'm not saying this to flatter him and I mean it with sincerity that he seems to have a better grasp on how to evaluate qbs than the Bills scouting departing does.

Haha. I am not sure about that and if it is true it is worrying!!

 

But thank you to everyone for the compliments. Just the compiling of all my notes and the writing up in an accessible way took me a couple of hours... that is without the time spent watching the film. I do it because I quite enjoy it though... and bizarrely I enjoy the being wrong as much as the being right. Being able to go back and see what you missed or misjudged is part of the fun!

[JohnC]

I think that Cook stinks and has a bad attitude. The guy was a 4 year starter at MSU at QB and wasn't voted a captain. In addition, his dad is a HUGE A-hole that makes old man Brady look like a nice guy. I would not mind his sister being around though. He is not a good QB prospect. He lacks the leadership that the position takes.

Cardale is the lottery ticket. There are a lot of similarities to Mahomes. Both can make every throw and have insane tools. Mahomes has shown more consistency but not nearly the consistency to be a star at the next level. Cardale has started his development. He was always a high ceiling, low floor prospect. Cook was a guy that on his best day had a CHANCE to be Andy Dalton. TT is already producing at that Dalton level so there is no need for more of that. Cardale is a guy that has a legit chance to be a franchise QB. He also could be out of the league. For all of the people on here clamoring for a franchise QB I cant believe that anyone would take issue with Cardale? He is the guy that has the ceiling to get there.

There was a lot of pre-draft criticism that Cook was not an appealing character. Too much was made of the fact that he wasn't voted captain. So what! He's a jerk. That doesn't mean that he won't be a good pro. Jim Kelly wasn't fully embraced by all his teammates. He didn't always act appropriately within the locker room and in public. But he grew as a person and as a leader.

 

I disagree with you over taking Cardale over Cook. My position is the opposite. I would gladly take Cook over Cardale because he is a more finished product. (Respectful disagreement) As far as ranking qb prospects the Cowboys ranked Cook over Prescott and were very disappointed when the Raiders took him.They also ranked Lynch ahead of both of them. As you well know getting the left over Prescott worked out for them.

 

As far as Mahomes goes I would love to have him. I wouldn't want to take him with the 10th pick. So if the Bills could trade down in the first round and get him and add some picks I would be ecstatic. As far as Cardale it is obvious that he does have intriguing tools. My problem with him is that one essential that I have for qb prospects is accuracy. If you don't have it before being drafted I'm skeptical that you will have it after being drafted. For me that is an imperative! That's the area where I have seriously disqualifying doubts about him.

 

You and I have a fundamental disagreement that will not be closed relating to this draft year. I strenuously almost to the point of zealotry (as you are aware of) believe that there are good qb prospects in this draft that will be available to us. You say don't do it and I say do it. On this issue I am unyielding. However, I'm well aware that in this draft your view will probably prevail. The Bills will probably draft a DB and you will exalt the selection. My response would reflect much disappointment. In the end the Bills will again be an 8-8 caliber team and you will say let's wait again to next year to do what we should have done in prior years. The cycle of futility will continue on and on and you and your cohorts will say let's wait again and again.

 

The line you are in is not the line I am in. That's okay. I'm still comfortable where I am standing in.

Haha. I am not sure about that and if it is true it is worrying!!

 

But thank you to everyone for the compliments. Just the compiling of all my notes and the writing up in an accessible way took me a couple of hours... that is without the time spent watching the film. I do it because I quite enjoy it though... and bizarrely I enjoy the being wrong as much as the being right. Being able to go back and see what you missed or misjudged is part of the fun!

What I can say with confidence with respect to the qb position that the Bills let reasonable opportunities go by over the past number of years that could have had a dramatic positive effect on this franchise. When an organization lacks a franchise qb and is timid in addressing that issue it has failed in its duties. This lack of urgency in addressing the position has for a generation damaged its chances of being a good team. If you don't believe me then look at the record.

[1billsfan]

The Bills scored more this year than Miami, KC, Baltimore and Cincy. What are you basing those guys being a tier up on other than what you think you are seeing? Every metric supports Taylor being right with those guys and an upgrade in many cases. A lot of people on here have convinced themselves that he is like Fitz but the facts say he's like Dalton (stats above).

 

Over the last 2 years he has a better record (15-14 to 14-15), 2 more TDs (47 to 45) and half of the INTs (12 to 24) of Tannehill yet we are supposed to believe he is a tier below him? Based on what?

 

To boil it down, Taylor doesn't get it done in crunch time. Forget comparing stats, records, metrics...NFL QBs are judged by what they do in crunch time. I can only remember one game in which Taylor did this.

[Kirby Jackson]

There was a lot of pre-draft criticism that Cook was not an appealing character. Too much was made of the fact that he wasn't voted captain. So what! He's a jerk. That doesn't mean that he won't be a good pro. Jim Kelly wasn't fully embraced by all his teammates. He didn't always act appropriately within the locker room and in public. But he grew as a person and as a leader.

 

I disagree with you over taking Cardale over Cook. My position is the opposite. I would gladly take Cook over Cardale because he is a more finished product. (Respectful disagreement) As far as ranking qb prospects the Cowboys ranked Cook over Prescott and were very disappointed when the Raiders took him.They also ranked Lynch ahead of both of them. As you well know getting the left over Prescott worked out for them.

 

As far as Mahomes goes I would love to have him. I wouldn't want to take him with the 10th pick. So if the Bills could trade down in the first round and get him and add some picks I would be ecstatic. As far as Cardale it is obvious that he does have intriguing tools. My problem with him is that one essential that I have for qb prospects is accuracy. If you don't have it before being drafted I'm skeptical that you will have it after being drafted. For me that is an imperative! That's the area where I have seriously disqualifying doubts about him.

 

You and I have a fundamental disagreement that will not be closed relating to this draft year. I strenuously almost to the point of zealotry (as you are aware of) believe that there are good qb prospects in this draft that will be available to us. You say don't do it and I say do it. On this issue I am unyielding. However, I'm well aware that in this draft your view will probably prevail. The Bills will probably draft a DB and you will exalt the selection. My response would reflect much disappointment. In the end the Bills will again be an 8-8 caliber team and you will say let's wait again to next year to do what we should have done in prior years. The cycle of futility will continue on and on and you and your cohorts will say let's wait again and again.

 

The line you are in is not the line I am in. That's okay. I'm still comfortable where I am standing in.

Just to be clear I have no objection to drafting a QB that I firmly believe will be a franchise guy. Every one of these guys gives me pause in a way that Jameis, Mariota and Luck didn't. All guys have questions but I would much rather be where the Bills are than the Rams for example. They gave up multiple 1's for a guy that may never even be okay. That cripples your franchise way worse than average QB play.

 

As you know, I am quite fond of the 2018 class. If you built the resources to get Rosen or Darnold I would be much happier than taking Trubisky or Watson (who I like). I think that they are better players and come with less risk. If you are going to pull the trigger on an aggressive move you need a high floor, high ceiling prospect. The floor for Rosen, for example, is a solid starter in my opinion. His ceiling is a franchise guy. I am fine in the middle rounds taking a high ceiling, low floor prospect like Cardale over a low ceiling, high floor guy like Cody Kessler. If you already have Aaron Rodgers I may feel differently. Kessler can come in early and manage a game in the event of an injury.

 

Cook's character ultimately wasn't talk; it caused him to slide. I do agree for sure that he was and is a more finished product than maybe anyone in the 2016 class. He to me was a guy that had a chance to be a decent game manager. That may be his ceiling.

 

Ultimately 1 or 2 of these QBs are going to be good players. It is a total lottery to me at this point. NO ONE thought that Dak would be the best QB in 2016 (including Dallas) as you alluded too. Hoping to get lucky and guess right isn't a very good draft strategy to me when it comes to finding a franchise QB. I would rather identify the guy, gather the necessary assets and then make a play to make it happen.

 

If they believe "Sam Darnold is our man" the strategy should be, do everything that you can to get another 1 in 2018. Let Tyrod walk knowing that you are going to take a step back and play Cardale. Get rid of every player over 30 that you can and take the cap penalties early. If you win 4 games, you will have a top 5 pick and another 1st if you want to go up. In addition, you will have the requisite cap space to build a winner. You need the timeline to be in line. If you are 5 years from being a legit contender there is no reason to have Kyle Williams, Incognito or Eric Wood. You can move on from guys like Hughes and McCoy. By the time you are ready to win those guys aren't a part of that picture. Be prepared to sync up the timeline so that it all comes together at the right time.

 

To boil it down, Taylor doesn't get it done in crunch time. Forget comparing stats, records, metrics...NFL QBs are judged by what they do in crunch time. I can only remember one game in which Taylor did this.

He has a better record than Tannehill over the last 2 years (15-14 to 14-15). Yes, I am counting the 1st trick play of 2015 as a win for Taylor. He did start the game.

 

I asked what you are basing Tannehill as being better on? He has less TDs, a worse record, double the INTs and his team has scored less?

[Maury Ballstein]

Kirby you think a single Gm would take Taylor over Dalton/Flacco ?

[Kirby Jackson]

Kirby you think a single Gm would take Taylor over Dalton/Flacco ?

Not necessarily specifically on Flacco, but I could certainly see him over Smith and Tannehill. I don't think any of those teams would trade their guy straight up for another. They are all alike.

 

Flacco hasn't played well in a few years but he has proven to be a great big game QB. He is a guy that I probably like more than most people do. There is a large group of Ravens fans that wish that they still had TT instead. He is capable of doing more on his own than Flacco. To me when the lights go on Flacco rises up.

 

Dalton had a down year and has been a nightmare in the playoffs. The Bengals have consistently had talent that is at the top of the league and haven't won a playoff game. Dalton has been good enough to get them there but not good enough to win another game. I think that Tyrod is a lot like him.

 

Smith is a weird case to me. He has won a ton but almost certainly does the least of all of them. He really is a game manager in every sense of the word. He is risk averse cant throw the ball 20 yards but he wins. He is a guy that probably does the least but with the exception of Flacco is the toughest to move on from.

 

Tannehill is another guy that is completely interchangeable with him. Tannehill makes more mistakes but has some raw tools.

 

These guys are all virtually the same. The numbers support this and the sample size is large enough. None of them are franchise changing guys but they are not really different at all either. The Bills are in a different spot than these other teams because they have all committed the money to those guys. I think that the better question is if you asked the Chiefs, Ravens, Dolphins and Bengals "do you regret those contracts?" That would be a fascinating conversation. That is the EXACT situation that the Bills are in.

 

EDIT: I put it on the last page but here is the comparison again: http://Here is the comparison of those guys over the last 2 years: http://forums.twobil...yone/?p=4236300

Edited January 31, 2017 by Kirby Jackson

[FireChan]

Not necessarily specifically on Flacco, but I could certainly see him over Smith and Tannehill. I don't think any of those teams would trade their guy straight up for another. They are all alike.

 

Flacco hasn't played well in a few years but he has proven to be a great big game QB. He is a guy that I probably like more than most people do. There is a large group of Ravens fans that wish that they still had TT instead. He is capable of doing more on his own than Flacco. To me when the lights go on Flacco rises up.

 

Dalton had a down year and has been a nightmare in the playoffs. The Bengals have consistently had talent that is at the top of the league and haven't won a playoff game. Dalton has been good enough to get them there but not good enough to win another game. I think that Tyrod is a lot like him.

 

Smith is a weird case to me. He has won a ton but almost certainly does the least of all of them. He really is a game manager in every sense of the word. He is risk averse cant throw the ball 20 yards but he wins. He is a guy that probably does the least but with the exception of Flacco is the toughest to move on from.

 

Tannehill is another guy that is completely interchangeable with him. Tannehill makes more mistakes but has some raw tools.

 

These guys are all virtually the same. The numbers support this and the sample size is large enough. None of them are franchise changing guys but they are not really different at all either. The Bills are in a different spot than these other teams because they have all committed the money to those guys. I think that the better question is if you asked the Chiefs, Ravens, Dolphins and Bengals "do you regret those contracts?" That would be a fascinating conversation. That is the EXACT situation that the Bills are in.

The difference is all of those guys are winners with the exception of Tanny. Flacco has a ring, Dalton and Smith consistently get their teams to the post season.

 

To me, Tanny, TT and Cutler are all in the same boat because they are better than what else is out there but they aren't perennial playoff guys. It's a different argument when the decision to pay Dalton has the "well he plays well enough to consistently make the postseason, maybe he'll get hot," angle. The obvious benefits are much more prominent.

Edited January 31, 2017 by FireChan

[Alphadawg7]

Since when is football not a team game?

 

The Tyrod haters seem to forget our defense and coaching were bad the past couple seasons.

 

Its only a team game for him when it suits an anti TT statement by him...when referencing it as a team game in a way that takes blame off TT then its no longer a team game for FireChan and all about the QB again. So just depends what his agenda is at the moment in relation to TT.

[Kirby Jackson]

The difference is all of those guys are winners with the exception of Tanny. Flacco has a ring, Dalton and Smith consistently get their teams to the post season.

 

To me, Tanny, TT and Cutler are all in the same boat because they are better than what else is out there but they aren't perennial playoff guys. It's a different argument when the decision to pay Dalton has the "well he plays well enough to consistently make the postseason, maybe he'll get hot," angle. The obvious benefits are much more prominent.

That is not unfair. I think that Dalton and Smith have consistently played with the best teams. Those teams SHOULD be in the playoffs every year. If you gave Tyrod or Tannehill the same rosters that Dalton and Smith have I would expect the results to be very similar. It is a little strange to me how much Alex Smith has won; I can't quite figure it out. Flacco is the only one that has lifted his team at any point.

[FireChan]

Since when is football not a team game?

 

The Tyrod haters seem to forget our defense and coaching were bad the past couple seasons.

That's true.

 

The bottom line is the Chiefs know that Alex Smith with their current roster takes them to the playoffs every year. They do not know TT could do the same thing. It's distinctly possible he could, but it's also possible he couldn't. That difference in uncertainty matters.

That is not unfair. I think that Dalton and Smith have consistently played with the best teams. Those teams SHOULD be in the playoffs every year. If you gave Tyrod or Tannehill the same rosters that Dalton and Smith have I would expect the results to be very similar. It is a little strange to me how much Alex Smith has won; I can't quite figure it out. Flacco is the only one that has lifted his team at any point.

See above. Smith just wins. Maybe he's just lucky, I don't know either. But the results are tangible. The Tannehill/TT exchange is theoretical and no guarantee.

 

 

Its only a team game for him when it suits an anti TT statement by him...when referencing it as a team game in a way that takes blame off TT then its no longer a team game for FireChan and all about the QB again. So just depends what his agenda is at the moment in relation to TT.

Keep my name off your lips.

Edited January 31, 2017 by FireChan

[1billsfan]

 

He has a better record than Tannehill over the last 2 years (15-14 to 14-15). Yes, I am counting the 1st trick play of 2015 as a win for Taylor. He did start the game.

 

I asked what you are basing Tannehill as being better on? He has less TDs, a worse record, double the INTs and his team has scored less?

 

Not sure why you keep bringing up Tannehill. That guy isn't a long term answer at QB either. The Dolphins will waste another two years with him before making the decision to move on.