The case against Gus Bradley for DC

[The Big Cat]

At first, I thought he'd be an obvious choice to come in as DC and return our team to relevance.

 

Upon closer review, I'm not sure that's the case.

 

He had two great years in Seattle following two bad years. The Seattle defense never skipped a beat once he left, and actually got better, a lot better. Meanwhile, in Jacksonville, outside this year, his defenses there were pretty lousy too.

 

Here's how his defenses have ranked (PTS/YDS):

 

2009: 25/24

2010: 27/27

2011: 9/7

2012: 4/1*

-------------

2013: 28/27

2014: 26/26

2015: 31/24

2016: 26/4

 

*since his departure from Seattle, their defenses have finished:

 

2013: 1/1

2014: 1/1

2015: 1/2

2016: 2/7

 

Soooooooooooo, may be I'm missing something here, but from 10,000 feet, this doesn't look that great. Can somebody help me understand why he'd be a good pick?

 

And if there's no good explanation, then may be we can not throw a **** fit if he's not hired. May be.

[BrooklynBills]

He's not good.

 

Pete Carroll and Dan Quinn are.

[BuffaloHokie13]

The most important ability is availability, and Gus is available!

[boyst]

I don't want him; I don't see him able to adapt or freelance to put players in position to succeed

[Pirate Angel]

I was thinking maybe one of swartzs top assistant to bring back the wide nine, a superior scheme with our personell and many players know the system with a benefit of its simplicity

Edited December 30, 2016 by BILLriant

[FireChan]

Are you taking into account the fact that the Jacksonville offense goes three and out a lot?

[BuffaloHokie13]

Are you taking into account the fact that the Jacksonville offense goes three and out a lot?

They do go 3 & out more than us, anyway. 24% of their drives go 3 and out, which is good for 25th in the league. We're at 22.2%, ranked 20th

[atlbillsfan1975]

He's not good.

 

Pete Carroll and Dan Quinn are.

Quinn was a giant joke in Atl. Still is with all his sayings and such. Since Quinn is winning all is well. Once Quinn starts losing, he will be an easy fire.

No thanks to Bradley, cast off HC to assistant coaches is a one way ticket South.

[bobobonators]

At first, I thought he'd be an obvious choice to come in as DC and return our team to relevance.

 

Upon closer review, I'm not sure that's the case.

 

He had two great years in Seattle following two bad years. The Seattle defense never skipped a beat once he left, and actually got better, a lot better. Meanwhile, in Jacksonville, outside this year, his defenses there were pretty lousy too.

 

Here's how his defenses have ranked (PTS/YDS):

 

2009: 25/24

2010: 27/27

2011: 9/7

2012: 4/1*

-------------

2013: 28/27

2014: 26/26

2015: 31/24

2016: 26/4

 

*since his departure from Seattle, their defenses have finished:

 

2013: 1/1

2014: 1/1

2015: 1/2

2016: 2/7

 

Soooooooooooo, may be I'm missing something here, but from 10,000 feet, this doesn't look that great. Can somebody help me understand why he'd be a good pick?

 

And if there's no good explanation, then may be we can not throw a **** fit if he's not hired. May be.

Thanks for doing the research. I had not. The most important part to me from that is that Seattle hasnt missed him.

 

Who would you like to see run our defense?

[C.Biscuit97]

I won't bang the desk for Gus but there's a few things I'd point out:

 

1) I like former head coaches becoming coordinators. I can't really explain it but I think it brings some more professionalism to your staff. And by all accounts, Gus is a great guy.

 

2) to go from 27 to 4 is a huge improvement. It's the exact opposite of what Rex did. That team was a joke defensive and now is a good unit.

 

3) you underestimate how bad Bortles sucks. The Jags gave the ball away 28 & 27 times the last 2 years (tied for 2nd worst this year). Their points/ game is completely flawed because of those turnovers.

 

I won't go crazy if they don't get Bradley but I think he is a good DC & a very positive influence in the Locker who the players would love to play for.

[bobobonators]

I won't bang the desk for Gus but there's a few things I'd point out:

 

1) I like former head coaches becoming coordinators. I can't really explain it but I think it brings some more professionalism to your staff. And by all accounts, Gus is a great guy.

 

2) to go from 27 to 4 is a huge improvement. It's the exact opposite of what Rex did. That team was a joke defensive and now is a good unit.

 

3) you underestimate how bad Bortles sucks. The Jags gave the ball away 28 & 27 times the last 2 years (tied for 2nd worst this year). Their points/ game is completely flawed because of those turnovers.

 

I won't go crazy if they don't get Bradley but I think he is a good DC & a very positive influence in the Locker who the players would love to play for.

Great points

[C.Biscuit97]

Thanks for doing the research. I had not. The most important part to me from that is that Seattle hasnt missed him.

 

Who would you like to see run our defense?

I get this point but I don't think it's that simple. Seattle has done a great job keeping its defensive big time players together.

 

Given how bad the Jags offense is and how deflating turnovers can be to a defense, I think he did an awesome job defensive in Jacksonville. Starting Poz.

[dezertbill]

I'd take Pettine over Bradley.

[bobobonators]

I get this point but I don't think it's that simple. Seattle has done a great job keeping its defensive big time players together.

 

Given how bad the Jags offense is and how deflating turnovers can be to a defense, I think he did an awesome job defensive in Jacksonville. Starting Poz.

I agree on Jax. Its hard to measure Gus's effectiveness when the offense turns it over so much.

[C.Biscuit97]

I'd take Pettine over Bradley.

Our run defense sucked under Pettine. I'm sick of guys rushing for 200 yards/ game.

 

And why does every like going to the past so much? Get some new blood.

I agree on Jax. Its hard to measure Gus's effectiveness when the offense turns it over so much.

Agree. They were playing really good defense the 2nd half of the year.

 

Playing defense when you have Bortles and for a garbage franchise llle Jacksonville has to be pretty depressing.

[Augie]

Our run defense sucked under Pettine. I'm sick of guys rushing for 200 yards/ game.

And why does every like going to the past so much? Get some new blood.

 

Agree. They were playing really good defense the 2nd half of the year.

Playing defense when you have Bortles and for a garbage franchise llle Jacksonville has to be pretty depressing.

Agreed on Pettine and 200 yard rushers. Enough!

[John from Riverside]

Just give me a DC that actually excells at coaching defenses that fit our players abilities

[RCN]

Our run defense sucked under Pettine. I'm sick of guys rushing for 200 yards/ game.

 

 

Not only that, but we frequently gave up big plays on 3rd and long.

[FireChan]

Our run defense sucked under Pettine. I'm sick of guys rushing for 200 yards/ game.

And why does every like going to the past so much? Get some new blood.

 

Agree. They were playing really good defense the 2nd half of the year.

Playing defense when you have Bortles and for a garbage franchise llle Jacksonville has to be pretty depressing.

Petrine was above average.

[BADOLBILZ]

At first, I thought he'd be an obvious choice to come in as DC and return our team to relevance.

 

Upon closer review, I'm not sure that's the case.

 

He had two great years in Seattle following two bad years. The Seattle defense never skipped a beat once he left, and actually got better, a lot better. Meanwhile, in Jacksonville, outside this year, his defenses there were pretty lousy too.

 

Here's how his defenses have ranked (PTS/YDS):

 

2009: 25/24

2010: 27/27

2011: 9/7

2012: 4/1*

-------------

2013: 28/27

2014: 26/26

2015: 31/24

2016: 26/4

 

*since his departure from Seattle, their defenses have finished:

 

2013: 1/1

2014: 1/1

2015: 1/2

2016: 2/7

 

Soooooooooooo, may be I'm missing something here, but from 10,000 feet, this doesn't look that great. Can somebody help me understand why he'd be a good pick?

 

And if there's no good explanation, then may be we can not throw a **** fit if he's not hired. May be.

 

 

Seattle runs a very simple scheme........none of their DC's can be considered field-tactically special, IMO.

 

They do not change what they do for specific opponents..........a key reason why Tyrod had the big day against them......and then reverted back to normal the following week.

 

If you don't have the horses in that D it is vulnerable.

 

I think the Bills have most of the fast, attacking personnel to implement a Seattle type D effectively.

 

What you are hoping to get.........competitiveness........very fast play.....gang tackling.......tackling soundly and aggressively.........hold up ball carriers and strip the football.

 

These are things that have been absent for most of Rex tenure in Buffalo.

 

Fred Jackson was on WGR today and he was gushing about the Seattle approach.......they are constantly in friendly competition with each other in that lockerroom.........and when you think about it, competitiveness is really the difference in this game.

 

What teams hope they get from guys like Gus and Dan Quinn is a piece of that environment. But since it's simple.......you need talent.

Edited December 30, 2016 by #BADOL

[The Big Cat]

Interesting takes. Seemed like support for him was practically universal.

[YoloinOhio]

He failed to recreate the Seattle D in Jax after 4 years and numerous high draft picks and tons of FA money spent.

 

I like his energy, enthusiasm, and the philosophy of his scheme.

 

They did have a decent D this year but with all the talent they had accumulated and given him they better have

 

I really don't know if I would be upset if he came here or would care if he didn't. There are some things to like and I'd rather have him than say, Pettine.

 

Plus we don't need the #1 D, just a solid one that shows up when we need them.

Edited December 30, 2016 by YoloinOhio

[Green Lightning]

Just give me a DC that actually excells at coaching defenses that fit our players abilities

This. Quit shoving 4-3 pegs into 3-4 holes. We have lots of talent on the D-side, find someone to design the scheme to the talent and the other way around.

[reddogblitz]

If I have been a proponent of hiringGus because in large part I could see a Seattle style D being a good fit for our personal. Similar to what we did with Schwartz. Simple. Line up and go after the football.

 

I fail to see how the defense still being good is any kind of indictment of Gus' abilities.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

If I have been a proponent of hiringGus because in large part I could see a Seattle style D being a good fit for our personal. Similar to what we did with Schwartz. Simple. Line up and go after the football.

 

I fail to see how the defense still being good is any kind of indictment of Gus' abilities.

Seems like seattles style of defense is to get really outstanding players at every level of their defense. Not sure scheme has really helped them, as much as great talent. I bet Rex Ryan could have that D at No. 1 too.

[C.Biscuit97]

Seems like seattles style of defense is to get really outstanding players at every level of their defense. Not sure scheme has really helped them, as much as great talent. I bet Rex Ryan could have that D at No. 1 too.

Rex would have them #1. OF ALL TIME EVER!

[BuffaloFan68]

In a perfect world we would bring Schwartz back as HC & keep Lynn as OC.

Go Bills!!!!!

[dave mcbride]

I'm more interested in defensive DVOA:

 

2009 - 29

2010 - 29

2011 - 10

2012 - 2

 

2013 - 28

2014 - 20

2015 - 26

2016 - 13

 

Basically he inherits terrible defenses and slowly improves them over time. It's a long time in each case though. Jax has a ton of talent on d now and i wouldn't be surprised to see them get into the top 10 next season. Anyway, the dvoa stats match up reasonably well withyour stats.

 

 

Seattle runs a very simple scheme........none of their DC's can be considered field-tactically special, IMO.

 

They do not change what they do for specific opponents..........a key reason why Tyrod had the big day against them......and then reverted back to normal the following week.

 

If you don't have the horses in that D it is vulnerable.

 

I think the Bills have most of the fast, attacking personnel to implement a Seattle type D effectively.

 

What you are hoping to get.........competitiveness........very fast play.....gang tackling.......tackling soundly and aggressively.........hold up ball carriers and strip the football.

 

These are things that have been absent for most of Rex tenure in Buffalo.

 

Fred Jackson was on WGR today and he was gushing about the Seattle approach.......they are constantly in friendly competition with each other in that lockerroom.........and when you think about it, competitiveness is really the difference in this game.

 

What teams hope they get from guys like Gus and Dan Quinn is a piece of that environment. But since it's simple.......you need talent.

Disagree to an extent on the bills-seattle comparison. Thesafeties make that seattle D, and since earlt thomas went down 5 weeks ago their pass D is 26th in dvoa overall during that stretch despite being 5th overall during the first 11 weeks. The Bills have a very bad safety situation. It's also interesting that Jax's defense got better once Jalen Ramsay arrived. He has played well of late.

 

Re Seattle, this is worth your time: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/film-room/2016/film-room-earl-thomas

Edited December 30, 2016 by dave mcbride

[Dragonborn10]

Didn't their top defensive pick tear his ACL on the first day of mini-camps?

Bortles sucks. Their offense is so bad it makes evaluating thier defense difficult.

Just beause Seattle's defense statistically got better after he left does not mean Bradley was holding them back. Lynch and the running game were keeping the defense off the field. Wilson was getting better. Bradley is in part responsible for the big improvement.

[BADOLBILZ]

I'm more interested in defensive DVOA:

 

2009 - 29

2010 - 29

2011 - 10

2012 - 2

 

2013 - 28

2014 - 20

2015 - 26

2016 - 13

 

Basically he inherits terrible defenses and slowly improves them over time. It's a long time in each case though. Jax has a ton of talent on d now and i wouldn't be surprised to see them get into the top 10 next season. Anyway, the dvoa stats match up reasonably well withyour stats.

Disagree to an extent on the bills-seattle comparison. Thesafeties make that seattle D, and since earlt thomas went down 5 weeks ago their pass D is 26th in dvoa overall during that stretch despite being 5th overall during the first 11 weeks. The Bills have a very bad safety situation. It's also interesting that Jax's defense got better once Jalen Ramsay arrived. He has played well of late.

 

Re Seattle, this is worth your time: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/film-room/2016/film-room-earl-thomas

 

Yes the Bills would definitely need to add a good safety. I think their safety situation is clearly subpar but Rex D made it look worse than it was.

 

Otherwise the Bills have a lot of athletes on D that really need to be allowed to play fast to get results. I know you know better but there is a misconception that the Seahawks have 11 great players on D......and that's not the case.

 

Unlike the early Seahawks/Jags D's the Bills are a veteran group........it's not taking them 3-4 years to reach their potential in a simple system.

 

I'm open to a lot of DC's but they need to be one-gap, fast flowing fronts that play a lot of press man.

 

Otherwise it's square peg/round hole time again.

 

I also expect the Bills draft to be heavily weighted to defense again as well. The draft looks to be deep with quality safety and CB prospects....heavy on edge rushers in first couple rounds......very light on OT's and not a lot of 1st round WR talent so I expect D to be the order of the day and if the Bills go to the style of D I would expect then they should be able to get some nice fits.

[Kelly the Dog]

When a guy like Gus Bradley becomes a HC for the first time, he never spends the necessary time on his speciality, in Bradley's case, defense, to do the job that was the reason he got the job in the first place. So it's often unfair to just assume because the HC is a defensive or an offensive guy that you are going to get that production out of that unit. It's like if Gus Bradley spent 65% of his time when he was the Seattle DC on the defense and 35% of his time going to see alt rock bands his defense was going to be just as good.

 

That's why a lot of first time coaches who are terrific coordinators are not good HCs. Only guys that truly hire terrific assistants, know how to delegate, know how to get assistants to employ their own philosophy, etc, are successful, which is a small percentage.

 

It's a completely different job.

[Big C]

Seems like seattles style of defense is to get really outstanding players at every level of their defense. Not sure scheme has really helped them, as much as great talent. I bet Rex Ryan could have that D at No. 1 too.

Seattle either got lucky with a bunch of players on that roster or someone knows how to coach. Earl Thomas might be the only first or second round pick on that entire roster.

[K-9]

Seems like seattles style of defense is to get really outstanding players at every level of their defense. Not sure scheme has really helped them, as much as great talent. I bet Rex Ryan could have that D at No. 1 too.

The uniqueness of Seattle's defense begins with Carrol's innovation of running 43 fronts with personnel better geared for 34 schemes. They might be a little smaller along the front 4, but they are superior athletically and Carrol schemes that to great effect.

[John from Riverside]

When a guy like Gus Bradley becomes a HC for the first time, he never spends the necessary time on his speciality, in Bradley's case, defense, to do the job that was the reason he got the job in the first place. So it's often unfair to just assume because the HC is a defensive or an offensive guy that you are going to get that production out of that unit. It's like if Gus Bradley spent 65% of his time when he was the Seattle DC on the defense and 35% of his time going to see alt rock bands his defense was going to be just as good.

 

That's why a lot of first time coaches who are terrific coordinators are not good HCs. Only guys that truly hire terrific assistants, know how to delegate, know how to get assistants to employ their own philosophy, etc, are successful, which is a small percentage.

 

It's a completely different job.

that give me the shivs.....because that is the exact same situation with Lynn

[Kelly the Dog]

that give me the shivs.....because that is the exact same situation with Lynn

There is not a right way or a wrong way to be a successful NFL coach. Some guys, as I described, lose their specialty because they become the big boss. IMO Marrone became a power monger when elevated to NFL head coach, the highest level in the profession. Some guys handle it and some don't. A lot of guys are better in their second run because they know what to expect and they learn. But you can't just look for a guy on his second run because a) some guys never learn or know how to delegate correctly and b) the Peter principle, some guys just as better at being coordinators than being HC. Most in fact. But there is no indication beforehand who will and who won't.

 

The best coach by far in the league, Bellichick, is not a standard anyone can follow whatsoever. He's brilliant on offense and defense, he doesn't follow league wide beliefs, and he benefits greatly from having Brady and his 19th straight year in the same system. Bellichick on the Bills would be a very good coach but likely nowhere near the Bellichick we know because his offense wouldn't perform like it does with Brady. And the 3-4 games with Jeannine or Brissett were not really a season long indication. The Bills shut them out. I can't remember the team, maybe the Dolphins, missed a kick right at the end that gave the Pats the win.

 

There are guys like Marv who are managers and let two coordinators run the offense and defense. It was Marv's greatest strength and his downfall. There are a lot of guys that are either offensive or defensive guys and some run the whole show and some delegate. There is no tried and true formula.

 

I think what doesn't work the most is what you alluded to. When a coordinator gets the HC job and then doesn't spend the necessary time on the job that got him the job. The same way it happens in most businesses. Guys are promoted to management and then don't spend the time or have the skills to be as effective as they were in the one specialty they know.

 

To me, if Lynn gets the job, hires a guy to completely run the defense who is an established coordinator, then has an OC like Palmer or Kromer who takes some of the responsibilities but not all, and Lynn calls the plays like Peyton or Reid or McCarthy, it could work. But it's tough to give up power.

[Pbomb]

Thanks for doing the research. I had not. The most important part to me from that is that Seattle hasnt missed him.

Who would you like to see run our defense?

isnt wade phillips a free agent after this year maybe we could outbid denver

[dave mcbride]

There is not a right way or a wrong way to be a successful NFL coach. Some guys, as I described, lose their specialty because they become the big boss. IMO Marrone became a power monger when elevated to NFL head coach, the highest level in the profession. Some guys handle it and some don't. A lot of guys are better in their second run because they know what to expect and they learn. But you can't just look for a guy on his second run because a) some guys never learn or know how to delegate correctly and b) the Peter principle, some guys just as better at being coordinators than being HC. Most in fact. But there is no indication beforehand who will and who won't.

The best coach by far in the league, Bellichick, is not a standard anyone can follow whatsoever. He's brilliant on offense and defense, he doesn't follow league wide beliefs, and he benefits greatly from having Brady and his 19th straight year in the same system. Bellichick on the Bills would be a very good coach but likely nowhere near the Bellichick we know because his offense wouldn't perform like it does with Brady. And the 3-4 games with Jeannine or Brissett were not really a season long indication. The Bills shut them out. I can't remember the team, maybe the Dolphins, missed a kick right at the end that gave the Pats the win.

There are guys like Marv who are managers and let two coordinators run the offense and defense. It was Marv's greatest strength and his downfall. There are a lot of guys that are either offensive or defensive guys and some run the whole show and some delegate. There is no tried and true formula.

I think what doesn't work the most is what you alluded to. When a coordinator gets the HC job and then doesn't spend the necessary time on the job that got him the job. The same way it happens in most businesses. Guys are promoted to management and then don't spend the time or have the skills to be as effective as they were in the one specialty they know.

To me, if Lynn gets the job, hires a guy to completely run the defense who is an established coordinator, then has an OC like Palmer or Kromer who takes some of the responsibilities but not all, and Lynn calls the plays like Peyton or Reid or McCarthy, it could work. But it's tough to give up power.

The greatest skill of head coaches is building good staffs. Carroll is good at it, walsh was great, and Parcells was the greatest ever. Of the more recent guys, i like kubiak. Edited December 30, 2016 by dave mcbride

[PolishDave]

At first, I thought he'd be an obvious choice to come in as DC and return our team to relevance.

 

Upon closer review, I'm not sure that's the case.

 

He had two great years in Seattle following two bad years. The Seattle defense never skipped a beat once he left, and actually got better, a lot better. Meanwhile, in Jacksonville, outside this year, his defenses there were pretty lousy too.

 

Here's how his defenses have ranked (PTS/YDS):

 

2009: 25/24

2010: 27/27

2011: 9/7

2012: 4/1*

-------------

2013: 28/27

2014: 26/26

2015: 31/24

2016: 26/4

 

*since his departure from Seattle, their defenses have finished:

 

2013: 1/1

2014: 1/1

2015: 1/2

2016: 2/7

 

Soooooooooooo, may be I'm missing something here, but from 10,000 feet, this doesn't look that great. Can somebody help me understand why he'd be a good pick?

 

And if there's no good explanation, then may be we can not throw a **** fit if he's not hired. May be.

 

I think you make a good case.

 

Gus probably needs a break from the NFL for a year or so anyway. He is too used to losing. Gotta wash the stank off first.

[The Big Cat]

Not thrilled by today's news, to be honest

[dave mcbride]

Not thrilled by today's news, to be honest

He has been in two places, and both defenses improved over time. Not the worst news.