Will Brady hit wall Manning did last 1/4 of 2014? (stats)

[TheFunPolice]

Manning looks done, as sad is that is for me to say. HOWEVER he did NOT look done until the last 1/4 of 2015.

 

In fact, he began 2014 looking just as good as he did in his record setting 2013 season. Then, all of a sudden, it was OVER. And it's been that way ever since.

 

It's like Manning woke up one morning in December and looked 65 years old. Could the same thing happen to Brady? Consider:

 

1st 4 games of 2014: Manning threw for 1,293 yards, 12 TD, and 3 INT, with a 67.5% completion rate

2nd 4 games of 2014: Manning threw for 1,289 yards, 12 TD and 2 INT, with a 70.5% completion rate

3rd 4 games of 2014: Manning threw for 1,165 yards, 12 TD and 4 INT, with a 66% completion rate

last 4 games of 2014: Manning threw for 990 YDS, 3 TD and 6 INT, with a 65% completion rate.

 

In the playoff game it was exactly like his last 4 regular season games: 211 yards, 56.5%, 1TD, 0 INT

 

He's looked the same this year too:

 

2015: 6 games, 1,524 YDS, 7TD, 10 INT, 61.6% completion rate

 

The key thing is how quickly it happened. Blame the neck, but the neck didn't stop him from putting up 93% of his 39 TD for the season in the first 12 games. The wheels just fell off and one of the NFL's consistent stat machined just seemingly gave out.

 

There is hope that something similar will happen with Brady. The Patriots* had an early week 4 bye. He as taken a lot of hits this season. He is the same age this year that Manning was last season. It's a grind for them from now until the end.

 

BTW Manning had a week 4 bye last season too.

 

Thoughts?

[aristocrat]

What about his torn hammy from december? That was his downfall.

[LeGOATski]

I don't think so. Brady hasn't been injured.

[TakeYouToTasker]

I don't think so. Brady hasn't been injured.

He has a degenerative throwing shoulder, but to what I think was your larger point: Manning has had multiple major neck surgeries, and has neuropathy in his hands. It's a totally different situation.

[Best Player Available]

I am more concerned with Brady**'and the pats*** going 19-0.

Than thinking Brady is close to hitting the wall.

[OhDozeBills]

I'll believe it when I see it, cause it sure seems this guy can do no wrong. Hate to say it but wouldn't be surprised if he plays well for another solid 5+ years barring injury.

[freeagentqb]

I watched the ending of his last game and he seemed very much in control and at ease. He stepped back in the pocket and threw darts right on the receivers chests in stride. Thought the Patriots looked like a well-oiled machine. See no drop off in his abilities whatsoever at this point.

[The Frankish Reich]

Manning looks done, as sad is that is for me to say. HOWEVER he did NOT look done until the last 1/4 of 2015.

 

In fact, he began 2014 looking just as good as he did in his record setting 2013 season. Then, all of a sudden, it was OVER. And it's been that way ever since.

 

It's like Manning woke up one morning in December and looked 65 years old. Could the same thing happen to Brady? Consider:

 

1st 4 games of 2014: Manning threw for 1,293 yards, 12 TD, and 3 INT, with a 67.5% completion rate

2nd 4 games of 2014: Manning threw for 1,289 yards, 12 TD and 2 INT, with a 70.5% completion rate

3rd 4 games of 2014: Manning threw for 1,165 yards, 12 TD and 4 INT, with a 66% completion rate

last 4 games of 2014: Manning threw for 990 YDS, 3 TD and 6 INT, with a 65% completion rate.

 

In the playoff game it was exactly like his last 4 regular season games: 211 yards, 56.5%, 1TD, 0 INT

 

He's looked the same this year too:

 

2015: 6 games, 1,524 YDS, 7TD, 10 INT, 61.6% completion rate

 

The key thing is how quickly it happened. Blame the neck, but the neck didn't stop him from putting up 93% of his 39 TD for the season in the first 12 games. The wheels just fell off and one of the NFL's consistent stat machined just seemingly gave out.

 

There is hope that something similar will happen with Brady. The Patriots* had an early week 4 bye. He as taken a lot of hits this season. He is the same age this year that Manning was last season. It's a grind for them from now until the end.

 

BTW Manning had a week 4 bye last season too.

 

Thoughts?

You're right about Peyton. After the end to last season, my assumption is that Peyton was dinged up and we'd see pretty much the same old guy in 2015, maybe with just an incremental decline. But based on what I've seen (and I live in Colorado so that's all 6 games), I'm now convinced that the decline is sharp and lasting. He's still not awful (yet) but look at this:

 

QB rating: 72.5. Not since his rookie year has he been below 90.

Espn's total QBR: 46.36. They've run that back to 2006, and Peyton's lowest until now was 72.97. I'd call that precipitous. For comparison, Orton's rating last year was 87.8. His QBR was 44.27. As I've said to lots of folks in Denver, the Broncos now have Kyle Orton back at QB.

 

But the Broncs are 6-0 they say! So were Orton's Broncs in 2009. That team missed the playoffs.

 

As for Brady--it'll come too. He thinks he's ageless. He thinks the diet guru will hold off Father Time. It won't. I can see him having a couple more elite years. But after that - maybe even before that - it'll start the usual way. An innocuous injury that he can't seem to heal from like he used to. Less mobility, more hits, more injuries, less effective.

 

I can't wait to see it ...

[CardinalScotts]

38 year old guy throwing the ball 50+ times a game? anyone else raise an eyebrow on that?

[Beef Jerky]

Depends if the devil wants his property back. Brady will keep playing well as long as the devil wants.

[Boatdrinks]

I'll believe it when I see it, cause it sure seems this guy can do no wrong. Hate to say it but wouldn't be surprised if he plays well for another solid 5+ years barring injury.

It will happen. As they say , Father Time is undefeated. When he gets to around 40, he will decline . I'd be surprised if it were 5+ years. I'm thinking 2-3.

[Rico]

Maybe. I think it's more likely that he leaves on a high note, after proving beyond a shadow of a doubt that he is the G.O.A.T.

 

Two more rings would probably do it.

Edited October 28, 2015 by Rico

[PromoTheRobot]

HGH is a hell of a drug.

[Very wide right]

Depends if the devil wants his property back. Brady will keep playing well as long as the devil wants.

TRANSLATION: My team loses so I'm jealous that the Patriots win.

[Beef Jerky]

TRANSLATION: My team loses so I'm jealous that the Patriots win.

Yes, yes, we all know you are a troll.

[machine gun kelly]

Have you watched Brady this year? He looks better than 5 years ago. He's not even close to a decline. It's sad to see Manning declining as he is doing since last year, but it's over.

 

He has to to retire after this year.

[Best Player Available]

Have you watched Brady this year? He looks better than 5 years ago. He's not even close to a decline. It's sad to see Manning declining as he is doing since last year, but it's over.

 

He has to to retire after this year.

if he doesn't Elway will force the issue.

[TheFunPolice]

Manning had the best season of any QB in NFL history at age 37. He looked better at age 37 than he did at 27 and ran an unstoppable offense that bulldozed everyone but Seattle (sadly).

 

The next year he made it 12 games and it all fell apart.

 

So there is plenty of hope that Father Time decides to get off his ass and come knocking for Brady.

[Bad Things]

That's exactly what I was thinking.

 

Depends if the devil wants his property back. Brady will keep playing well as long as the devil wants.

[Augie]

HGH is a hell of a drug.

But, but.... isn'tt here a rule against that? Surely the Patriots and Brady...... never met a rule they didn't want to circumvent.

[TheFunPolice]

HGH or not a week 4 bye + a lot of hits (Brady is getting sacked a lot and hit quite a bit in games I've seen) is going to add up on an older body.

 

IMO Gronk is their MVP. He cannot be covered and can barely even be slowed down.

 

I've never seen a player who literally cannot be stopped no matter what you do.

[Rico]

Manning had the best regular season of any QB in NFL history at age 37. He looked better at age 37 than he did at 27 and ran an unstoppable offense that bulldozed everyone but Seattle (sadly).

 

The next year he made it 12 games and it all fell apart.

 

So there is plenty of hope that Father Time decides to get off his ass and come knocking for Brady.

Fixed.

[TheFunPolice]

Fixed.

 

Well, he did pretty well until the Super Bowl... LOL

 

400+ yards against the cheating scum in the AFC Title game wasn't bad either.

[PromoTheRobot]

TRANSLATION: My team loses so I'm jealous that the Patriots win.

I don't believe in the devil but I do believe in PEDs. You have a QB playing at his peak when his contemporaries are in decline and retiring, and that doesn't raise an eyebrow? Remember Roger Clemens resurgence? Turns out he was juicing.

 

Pretty much every athlete who miraculously had a great season or two late in his career did it with PEDs. Of course Tommy Boy never had a letdown. Then again he was a scrawny kid in college who suddenly bulks up in the pros. He probably started early and just kept it up.

 

So forgive me if I'm not impressed.

[drinkTHEkoolaid]

I don't believe in the devil but I do believe in PEDs. You have a QB playing at his peak when his contemporaries are in decline and retiring, and that doesn't raise an eyebrow? Remember Roger Clemens resurgence? Turns out he was juicing.

 

Pretty much every athlete who miraculously had a great season or two late in his career did it with PEDs. Of course Tommy Boy never had a letdown. Then again he was a scrawny kid in college who suddenly bulks up in the pros. He probably started early and just kept it up.

 

So forgive me if I'm not impressed.

God I would love his legacy* to be even more tainted than it already is. Please let there be proof (that the commissioner doesn't hastily destroy) that proves he is juicing.

[PromoTheRobot]

God I would love his legacy* to be even more tainted than it already is. Please let there be proof (that the commissioner doesn't hastily destroy) that proves he is juicing.

Too bad Fumbles Goodell gave Tom the cloak of invincibility. After Deflategate Tom could be caught running a human trafficking ring with dog fighting on the side and he will skate. All he has to do is chuckle and smirk, and his legion of media asskissers would howl and wail about how unfair all this is to poor Tom.

[Sandy McFiddish]

I really hope he does decline like Manning and soon. I can't believe how great of shape he is in right now unfortunately.

[bills_fan_in_raleigh]

The cheats have found some new way to dominate and I would bet a large wager that tommy boy is juicing using some new u detectable mechanism. That's why he destroyed the cell phone their was evidence of a lot more than the deflator on it.

[PromoTheRobot]

I really hope he does decline like Manning and soon. I can't believe how great of shape he is in right now unfortunately.

I know. What a miracle.

[Steve Billieve]

Maybe. I think it's more likely that he leaves on a high note, after proving beyond a shadow of a doubt that he is the G.O.A.T.

 

Two more rings would probably do it.

I don't want to say there's no chance but . . . I think the only way that happens is if Belichick makes the decision for him and he wants to retire a pat*.

[Beerball]

I'd like to see him hit a wall going about 85.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

common man...someone had to say it

[PortlandiaEast]

I am more concerned with Brady**'and the pats*** going 19-0.

Than thinking Brady is close to hitting the wall.

i hope they do it. Half sarcasm half i dont give a ish.

 

I hope he wins a few more rings actually then it comes out that hes been on PEDS. That would be the most satisfying IMO. Negate all the wins, vacate the titles and add a few asterisks.

Edited October 29, 2015 by PortlandiaEast

[Indy Dave]

You can hate them and you can say they're cheaters (and you'd be justified in doing so), but New England will not lose more than two games this year, barring an injury to Brady. In fact, I think they go through the regular season unbeaten. And since they aren't losing at home in the playoffs to Denver or Cincinnati, I'll be rooting for the Packers to come out of the NFC because they're the team with the best chance of knocking off the Pats before 19-0 slaps us in the face.

[Prickly Pete]

As for Brady--it'll come too. He thinks he's ageless. He thinks the diet guru will hold off Father Time. It won't. I can see him having a couple more elite years. But after that - maybe even before that - it'll start the usual way. An innocuous injury that he can't seem to heal from like he used to. Less mobility, more hits, more injuries, less effective.

 

I can't wait to see it ...

 

Yeah, it will be great to strut around and gloat..."haha, silly Tom Brady, embarrassing my team for 15 years, dominating the league at an unprecedented level. You are now a loser Mr. Brady! Sure, my Bills have never won anything, and our team still blows after 20 years without the playoffs, but you suck Tommy Boy!"

 

That will hurt him terribly.

i hope they do it. Half sarcasm half i dont give a ish.

 

I hope he wins a few more rings actually then it comes out that hes been on PEDS. That would be the most satisfying IMO. Negate all the wins, vacate the titles and add a few asterisks.

 

Ha, the whole NFL is fueled by PED's and painkillers. They wouldn't vacate a single Patriots victory, any more than they would vacate the Steelers steroid powered championships.

HGH or not a week 4 bye + a lot of hits (Brady is getting sacked a lot and hit quite a bit in games I've seen) is going to add up on an older body.

 

IMO Gronk is their MVP. He cannot be covered and can barely even be slowed down.

 

I've never seen a player who literally cannot be stopped no matter what you do.

 

More bitterness.

It's Brady and Belichick, and anyone without a head full of hate, knows it.

Edited October 29, 2015 by HoF Watkins

[Mr. WEO]

I don't believe in the devil but I do believe in PEDs. You have a QB playing at his peak when his contemporaries are in decline and retiring, and that doesn't raise an eyebrow? Remember Roger Clemens resurgence? Turns out he was juicing.

 

Pretty much every athlete who miraculously had a great season or two late in his career did it with PEDs. Of course Tommy Boy never had a letdown. Then again he was a scrawny kid in college who suddenly bulks up in the pros. He probably started early and just kept it up.

 

So forgive me if I'm not impressed.

 

Your unimpressed with his career because you assume he's "juicing"? That certainly makes things easier for you, I guess.

 

And "bulked up"? He weighs only 225 at 6-4". That's 15 lbs less than EJ and same as Rodgers, who is 2 inches shorter.

 

Is Carson Palmer Juicing? Do you also assume Manning was juicing the past 2 seasons, so you're not impressed with him either.

 

Someone posted the SI article of Brady's in and off season workout regimen. If everyone, including young men like Sammy, worked like this, they wouldn't be missing games with pulled calf muscles and the like...

[Gordio]

You're right about Peyton. After the end to last season, my assumption is that Peyton was dinged up and we'd see pretty much the same old guy in 2015, maybe with just an incremental decline. But based on what I've seen (and I live in Colorado so that's all 6 games), I'm now convinced that the decline is sharp and lasting. He's still not awful (yet) but look at this:

 

QB rating: 72.5. Not since his rookie year has he been below 90.

Espn's total QBR: 46.36. They've run that back to 2006, and Peyton's lowest until now was 72.97. I'd call that precipitous. For comparison, Orton's rating last year was 87.8. His QBR was 44.27. As I've said to lots of folks in Denver, the Broncos now have Kyle Orton back at QB.

 

But the Broncs are 6-0 they say! So were Orton's Broncs in 2009. That team missed the playoffs.

 

As for Brady--it'll come too. He thinks he's ageless. He thinks the diet guru will hold off Father Time. It won't. I can see him having a couple more elite years. But after that - maybe even before that - it'll start the usual way. An innocuous injury that he can't seem to heal from like he used to. Less mobility, more hits, more injuries, less effective.

 

I can't wait to see it ...

 

 

Well said sir. I am not sure when it is going to happen either but it is going to happen & if I had a guess it should happen pretty soon if history is any sort of indication. I have watched a few Bronco games & I know they are 6-0 but manning looks shot. My guess the Broncos part ways with him after this year & I predict another early round exist for Denver in the playoffs.

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

I can only wish that Brady keep passing 50 times a game and in the weeks to come have his arm turn to mush.

38 year old guy throwing the ball 50+ times a game? anyone else raise an eyebrow on that?

PED's / HGH. Keep the rumor alive!!!

[PromoTheRobot]

 

Your unimpressed with his career because you assume he's "juicing"? That certainly makes things easier for you, I guess.

 

And "bulked up"? He weighs only 225 at 6-4". That's 15 lbs less than EJ and same as Rodgers, who is 2 inches shorter.

 

Is Carson Palmer Juicing? Do you also assume Manning was juicing the past 2 seasons, so you're not impressed with him either.

 

Someone posted the SI article of Brady's in and off season workout regimen. If everyone, including young men like Sammy, worked like this, they wouldn't be missing games with pulled calf muscles and the like...

Ah, WEO. Master of the deflected argument. Dropper of important facts. Compare Michigan Tom to Patriot Tom. I guess he didn't reach puberty until he joined the NFL, huh? And if course there is nothing unusual about a 38 year old QB at the peak of his game. Kind of like how Roger Clemens became dominant again after the Red Sox. Nothing to see here.

[Mr. WEO]

Ah, WEO. Master of the deflected argument. Dropper of important facts. Compare Michigan Tom to Patriot Tom. I guess he didn't reach puberty until he joined the NFL, huh? And if course there is nothing unusual about a 38 year old QB at the peak of his game. Kind of like how Roger Clemens became dominant again after the Red Sox. Nothing to see here.

 

Deflected argument? You say because he put on 10-15 pounds after entering the NFL he's been juicing from the get-go?

 

You simply made that up. Can you link us your posts accusing a 37 year old Manning, who threw for 55 TDs and 5500 yards, of juicing? I don't recall your suspicion being as acute back then.

 

What "important facts" did I leave out, other than that you are a leading conspiracy theorist here?

[Rob's House]

With our luck that SOB will play til he's 50.