Bills to trade Kiko Alonso for LeSean McCoy

[Beerball]

Thanks bud! Nice to be back.... Who do you want me to drag along with me? Lol

Guy who goes by the name Mr. Ags.

[CountryCletus]

 

Preferably Jerry Hughe$... Can you work on that?

I could do that.... But I'm not into undersized, and about to be overpaid DE's and LB's that are products of their supporting cast.... Hahaha

[Hapless Bills Fan]

If true, this I did not know.

 

It's true

[Deranged Rhino]

I could do that.... But I'm not into undersized, and about to be overpaid DE's and LB's that are products of their supporting cast.... Hahaha

 

[CountryCletus]

Guy who goes by the name Mr. Ags.

He's lurking... I speak with him from time to time....

[3rdand12]

He's lurking... I speak with him from time to time....

Good to hear !!

Oh by the way folks. i have regained my mind after last night> and again this afternoon with the Cassel thing took my wind again.

But i am fine now. I noticed some folks were concerned about my perspective on the trade. lol.

Go Bills!

[Augie]

Good to hear !!Oh by the way folks. i have regained my mind after last night> and again this afternoon with the Cassel thing took my wind again.

But i am fine now. I noticed some folks were concerned about my perspective on the trade. lol.

Go Bills!

Just wait... free agency awaits! No business as usual here, from the looks of things!

[3rdand12]

Just wait... free agency awaits! No business as usual here, from the looks of things!

Hell of a ride so far!

[maddenboy]

Thanks bud! Nice to be back.... Who do you want me to drag along with me? Lol

 

Can you dredge up 26cornerBlitz?

 

I saw in another post that he is missed around these parts. I had forgotten, but now that they mention it . . ..

[CountryCletus]

Where have ya been, country Cletus?

Back to work, and on the days off remodeling the house.... These 3 moves are really getting me fired up again.... The dining room can wait.... VERNON DAVIS!

[Rob's House]

Yes, they are. The difference between the production of McCoy and a late round pick or a street free agent is simply not that great. It has been proven over and over and over the past 5-6 years. And when you factor in McCoy's cap hit as well, this is a horrific trade for Buffalo.

If this is true why doesn't every team have a great RB?

[YoloinOhio]

@ChrisTrapasso: Calculated the usage figures for LeSean McCoy compared to the other big-name veteran RBs who are FAs / could be moved http://t.co/j5SX57wQIW

[The Dean]

If this is true why doesn't every team have a great RB?

 

Because some teams have two. Because some teams don't value the RB position enough to invest in a "great" RB knowing a couple good ones can get the job done. Because some teams actually have great (well, let's say very good) RBs but don't have a good OL. Because some have lousy offensive schemes/coaches, etc.

[Rob's House]

 

Because some teams have two. Because some teams don't value the RB position enough to invest in a "great" RB knowing a couple good ones can get the job done. Because some teams actually have great (well, let's say very good) RBs but don't have a good OL. Because some have lousy offensive schemes/coaches, etc.

They don't need to invest in one. Apparently they grow on trees. You can pluck a UDFA at random and you're set.

[Deranged Rhino]

They don't need to invest in one. Apparently they grow on trees. You can pluck a UDFA at random and you're set.

 

The thing is, as ridiculous as the argument is that elite RBs grow on trees, I understand the rational behind it. The position is being deflated in value on the field and financially for the players themselves. And there's been plenty of "come from nowhere" success stories of late at the position to fuel the belief that it's easy to find a guy who can carry the ball 250+ times a season and be successful. But I think even the most ardent believers in that theory would agree that there's an exception to be made for a special player.

 

There are many who question whether McCoy fits that bill. Maybe they're right ultimately, I can't begrudge that. I happen to think he does fit the bill, and people who have watched Shady throughout his career, beyond the highlights, would probably agree.

 

But still, I get where that argument stems from. We'll see soon enough I guess, but I think Bills fans are going to really enjoy watching McCoy play for their team. The guy is special.

[The Dean]

They don't need to invest in one. Apparently they grow on trees. You can pluck a UDFA at random and you're set.

 

 

I know some say great RBs are a dime a dozen. I may have stupidly used that exaggeration myself once or twice--and if I did, I was wrong to do so. But you can find very serviceable backs---and even very good backs, in the late rounds and even in the UFDA market, IMO. Typically these backs aren't the complete package, though. Or they have yet to learn the finer points of the position.

 

Spiller is the kind of back that, in the right system, would be considered a "great back". I know some disagree.

[Beerball]

 

The thing is, as ridiculous as the argument is that elite RBs grow on trees, I understand the rational behind it. The position is being deflated in value on the field and financially for the players themselves. And there's been plenty of "come from nowhere" success stories of late at the position to fuel the belief that it's easy to find a guy who can carry the ball 250+ times a season and be successful. But I think even the most ardent believers in that theory would agree that there's an exception to be made for a special player.

 

There are many who question whether McCoy fits that bill. Maybe they're right ultimately, I can't begrudge that. I happen to think he does fit the bill, and people who have watched Shady throughout his career, beyond the highlights, would probably agree.

 

But still, I get where that argument stems from. We'll see soon enough I guess, but I think Bills fans are going to really enjoy watching McCoy play for their team. The guy is special.

I'm more excited by what McCoy brings to the table with the passing game I think. He's very accomplished and we'll see him used plenty on play action. Me likey.

[Rubes]

 

 

I know some say great RBs are a dime a dozen. I may have stupidly used that exaggeration myself once or twice--and if I did, I was wrong to do so. But you can find very serviceable backs---and even very good backs, in the late rounds and even in the UFDA market, IMO. Typically these backs aren't the complete package, though. Or they have yet to learn the finer points of the position.

 

Spiller is the kind of back that, in the right system, would be considered a "great back". I know some disagree.

 

I don't doubt that Spiller, in the right situation, could be a great back. But in my mind, he will always carry a large liability, which is his complete failure as a pass blocker.

[Rob's House]

 

 

I know some say great RBs are a dime a dozen. I may have stupidly used that exaggeration myself once or twice--and if I did, I was wrong to do so. But you can find very serviceable backs---and even very good backs, in the late rounds and even in the UFDA market, IMO. Typically these backs aren't the complete package, though. Or they have yet to learn the finer points of the position.

 

Spiller is the kind of back that, in the right system, would be considered a "great back". I know some disagree.

I think we're in agreement. I do think you've got a better chance of finding a good RB late in the draft than most other positions, but this business of great RBs being a dime a dozen is just an absurd overstatement.

 

Guys like AP, Lynch, McCoy, and Bell make their teams substantially better and most teams don't have a guy like that. Sure you get the occasional Arian Foster or FJ, but those guys are still the exception rather than the rule.

[Johnny Hammersticks]

I'm more excited by what McCoy brings to the table with the passing game I think. He's very accomplished and we'll see him used plenty on play action. Me likey.

He had 2 consecutive 50+ reception seasons before Chip decided not to use him as much in the passing game.

[Maury Ballstein]

Guys like AP, Lynch, McCoy, and Bell make their teams substantially better and most teams don't have a guy like that.

This. Add Charles to that list too.

He had 2 consecutive 50+ reception seasons before Chip decided not to use him as much in the passing game.

He's always been a blast to watch in the passing game. Next year is gonna be insane.

[TheFunPolice]

Game changing RBs are not "a dime a dozen"

 

McCoy is an incredible talent. Just watch what happens to Dallas if Murray walks. A great RB is still a valuable commodity.

 

The problem is that there has been a long run of mediocre RB play in the league.

 

I don't doubt that Spiller, in the right situation, could be a great back. But in my mind, he will always carry a large liability, which is his complete failure as a pass blocker.

To me Spiller is a poor man's Chris Johnson. Small, quick, explosive. Maybe have a good year or two before vanishing.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

Game changing RBs are not "a dime a dozen"

 

McCoy is an incredible talent. Just watch what happens to Dallas if Murray walks. A great RB is still a valuable commodity.

 

The problem is that there has been a long run of mediocre RB play in the league.

.

Gotta disagree with you. Murray kind of proves the point-- 3rd round pick. undrafted guys like Arian foster, and cheap FA vets like Forsett also show that productive RBs can be found pretty easily. Don't really need to waste high picks or trades on them.

 

I am excited about McCoy; but I wonder if a cheaper FA like Gore or Ingram would have been just as productive.

[Kelly the Dog]

Gotta disagree with you. Murray kind of proves the point-- 3rd round pick. undrafted guys like Arian foster, and cheap FA vets like Forsett also show that productive RBs can be found pretty easily. Don't really need to waste high picks or trades on them.

 

I am excited about McCoy; but I wonder if a cheaper FA like Gore or Ingram would have been just as productive.

So you can name 5 or so who are like that, and there are 100 or so in the league who are also low picks who suck.

Or at least are not 1200 yard rushers.

And will not ever be.

[Deranged Rhino]

I'm more excited by what McCoy brings to the table with the passing game I think. He's very accomplished and we'll see him used plenty on play action. Me likey.

 

Yup, excellent point. He can do it all. Roman is probably the happiest guy in the building over there.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

So you can name 5 or so who are like that, and there are 100 or so in the league who are also low picks who suck.

 

Or at least are not 1200 yard rushers.

 

And will not ever be.

There are countless examples. Priest Holmes, Willie Parker, Fred Jackson. RB is just one of those positions that, maybe except for the generational or HOF talents like Barry Sanders and AP, the productivity difference is pretty slim between high draft picks and nobodies. If that is true, why would you ever take a risk on a high-value player. Go give the joique bells of the world a shot; if they don't pan out, no big deal. On to the next.

 

Plus, with the way the game has changed to platoon systems, it makes it less important to get a great one.

 

Mccoy is a great back, for sure. But I am not sure you need a great back anymore, or need to spend capital to get one.

[Kelly the Dog]

There are countless examples. Priest Holmes, Willie Parker, Fred Jackson. RB is just one of those positions that, maybe except for the generational or HOF talents like Barry Sanders and AP, the productivity difference is pretty slim between high draft picks and nobodies. If that is true, why would you ever take a risk on a high-value player. Go give the joique bells of the world a shot; if they don't pan out, no big deal. On to the next.

 

Plus, with the way the game has changed to platoon systems, it makes it less important to get a great one.

 

Mccoy is a great back, for sure. But I am not sure you need a great back anymore, or need to spend capital to get one.

There are tons of examples and yet you named guys who worked ten years ago or 34 years old. There are about 120 running backs in the league. Only 10-15 of them are very good. Half of those are top picks.

[Chilly]

I'm philosophically against this trade mainly due to sort shelf lives of RBs and the ability to get good production out of them without needing superstars.

 

For example, here's something Joe Dolan tweeted earlier today:

 

Brief study on L. McCoy. Found 11 players since 2000 who followed up a 250-carry/5.0 YPC with a decline of .5 YPC or more. 9 never recovered

I do agree it makes us better short term and there's questions around Kiko. But I don't have a lot of confidence McCoy is going to ever live up to the expectations we have for him given his mileage, history, and our offensive line.

Edited March 5, 2015 by BlueFire

[Agent 91]

I think our offense was worse in 2014 than 2013, our defense was much better in 2014. Still can't blame all the run game shortcomings on the offense. I don't dislike Kiko, just didn't get into the infatuation that many did. It kind of blinds people to the reality.

You know you're first statement.... why? Because it is 100%fact

[smapdi]

There are countless examples. Priest Holmes, Willie Parker, Fred Jackson. RB is just one of those positions that, maybe except for the generational or HOF talents like Barry Sanders and AP, the productivity difference is pretty slim between high draft picks and nobodies. If that is true, why would you ever take a risk on a high-value player. Go give the joique bells of the world a shot; if they don't pan out, no big deal. On to the next.

 

Plus, with the way the game has changed to platoon systems, it makes it less important to get a great one.

 

Mccoy is a great back, for sure. But I am not sure you need a great back anymore, or need to spend capital to get one.

 

 

Yes, there are plenty of later round RB's who have had success in the league. Problem is, that this team wants to win NOW. Maybe they draft one of those guys in the 2nd or 3rd, maybe they don't. CJ Spiller is gone and so you're left with a 34 year old FJax (whom Father time has clearly began catching up to), Boobie Dixon (a short yardage RB at best), & Bryce Brown (Literally fumbled the job away & a key win). None of those guys broke 100 yards last season- I think the top rushing performance was like 77 yards. The Bills had the fewest rushing 1st downs by a wide margin- when you can't convert 3rd & 1, you have a major problem.

 

 

They brought in McCoy because he is a proven, elite commodity at RB. He has proven he can be a bell cow, featured back AND stay healthy while doing it. He's had back to back 300 carry seasons in which he started 32 out of 32 games. That to me is probably the biggest selling point to Whaley and Ryan: McCoy can be that featured back AND stay healthy while doing it and doing it very well. Dude has 2 All-Pro nods and 3 Pro-Bowls under his belt. He will be 27 years old & in the absolute prime of his athletic career. He is a true all around RB with 300 rec / 2300 yards receiving on top of his 6800 yards rushing.

 

 

There is no argument that LeSean McCoy is a marquee RB in the NFL. Top 3 without a doubt. In the Bills' and Ryan's eyes, they do not have the luxury of waiting around & hoping a 2nd or 3rd round RB puts it all together & becomes a starting caliber NFL RB. They went out and got one of the best RB's in the league without spending a valuable draft pick in the process. Yea, losing Alonso sucks but who knows how he recovers from his 2nd ACL tear. On top of that, this defense improved drastically without him in the lineup so I look at him as "house money"

[Chilly]

There are tons of examples and yet you named guys who worked ten years ago or 34 years old. There are about 120 running backs in the league. Only 10-15 of them are very good. Half of those are top picks.

Yet you can get five yards a carry from Justin Forsett in the right situation (like Baltimore this year), while McCoy himself got significantly less.

 

RBs are a funny thing. Committees and guys not near as talented can get significant production given good offensive lines. And they fall off quickly.

 

You'll never catch me investing a ton in RB, because the difference in production between serviceable and very good just isn't that much. I'd rather get two solid guys that can split the load and get my elite players elsewhere (like QB, both lines, and wr/te)

Edited March 5, 2015 by BlueFire

[Beerball]

Gotta disagree with you. Murray kind of proves the point-- 3rd round pick. undrafted guys like Arian foster, and cheap FA vets like Forsett also show that productive RBs can be found pretty easily. Don't really need to waste high picks or trades on them.

 

I am excited about McCoy; but I wonder if a cheaper FA like Gore or Ingram would have been just as productive.

Draft position has nothing to do with whether a player is top 'o the heap in the NFL. Your argument makes no sense in the context of the conversation (to me). If you are that good your draft position means nothing. If you think that you could plug Joe Average RB into philly and get the same results you'd be wrong. McCoy brings something extra.

[nucci]

I'm philosophically against this trade mainly due to sort shelf lives of RBs and the ability to get good production out of them without needing superstars.

 

For example, here's something Joe Dolan tweeted earlier today:

 

 

I do agree it makes us better short term and there's questions around Kiko. But I don't have a lot of confidence McCoy is going to ever live up to the expectations we have for him given his mileage, history, and our offensive line.

What in his history bothers you?

[Wayne Cubed]

There are countless examples. Priest Holmes, Willie Parker, Fred Jackson. RB is just one of those positions that, maybe except for the generational or HOF talents like Barry Sanders and AP, the productivity difference is pretty slim between high draft picks and nobodies. If that is true, why would you ever take a risk on a high-value player. Go give the joique bells of the world a shot; if they don't pan out, no big deal. On to the next.

 

Plus, with the way the game has changed to platoon systems, it makes it less important to get a great one.

 

Mccoy is a great back, for sure. But I am not sure you need a great back anymore, or need to spend capital to get one.

 

So the difference between LeSean McCoy and Joique Bell is pretty slim? Bell hasn't topped a 1,000 yard season yet. His career YPC is 4.1. Bell has only been in the league for 3 seasons but if you compare it to McCoy's first season, it's not even close. McCoy had more than a 1,000 more yards rushing then Bell and 10 more TD's. He also averaged a half yard more per carry. I suppose the only place they may be similar is receiving stats, but even then McCoy has scored way more TD's receiving.

 

If that was a different position, say WR, you would clearly say there is a significant difference in the player.

[nucci]

How come there are some who prefer average players over great ones?

[BackInDaDay]

this move would concern me if our HC wasn't a very good defensive minded coach, with many resources on that side of the ball. if both players stay healthy, this trade upgrades both teams.

 

i'll have to see what the D depth chart looks like in pre-season before having an opinion on whether we're too thin in spots. We all saw Kiko as an upgrade to an already cohesive unit. that cohesive unit's in the rear view, as Ryan reshapes it.

 

obviously, it was decided that Alonzo was worth more to the team as a bargaining chip - which i understand, considering the history of that knee.

[Last Guy on the Bench]

I'm not really in favor of this trade, for most of the reasons other people have cited (age, Kiko's ability, value of RB, cap, etc.).

 

BUT, I've been quite interested in the argument around how much running backs are actually worth. It got me thinking about what kind of an offensive bump we might see from upgrading to Shady. Is an improvement of 50 yards per game too much to expect?

 

A few more big runs? A few more drives kept alive? A little more room for the receivers and QB to work with, as defenses key in on Shady? I'm not sure 50 yards per game is outrageous to expect.

 

And that would be significant. Last year we ranked 26th in the league in total YPG with 318.5. If we were 50 better at 368.5, we would have ranked 10th, just in front of the Giants and behind the Seahawks.

 

If Shady can move us from 26th in the league to 10th, then I might have to change my opinion. (Though I still don't know about the long-term implications of the trade.)

[Agent 91]

 

Hell no! Guns don't kill people, NIGEL BRADHAM KILLS PEOPLE!

 

Especially fools who doubt him.

 

DEFINITELY NOT BRADHAM. He has grown into a cusp probowl contender in my eyes

[BuffaloBillsForever]

I'm not really in favor of this trade, for most of the reasons other people have cited (age, Kiko's ability, value of RB, cap, etc.).

 

BUT, I've been quite interested in the argument around how much running backs are actually worth. It got me thinking about what kind of an offensive bump we might see from upgrading to Shady. Is an improvement of 50 yards per game too much to expect?

 

A few more big runs? A few more drives kept alive? A little more room for the receivers and QB to work with, as defenses key in on Shady? I'm not sure 50 yards per game is outrageous to expect.

 

And that would be significant. Last year we ranked 26th in the league in total YPG with 318.5. If we were 50 better at 368.5, we would have ranked 10th, just in front of the Giants and behind the Seahawks.

 

If Shady can move us from 26th in the league to 10th, then I might have to change my opinion. (Though I still don't know about the long-term implications of the trade.)

What I am most worried about is his age. 27 is the typical age where RB's decline and RB is a position when they begin to breakdown their production is a shell of their former self. I'm worried he might become a Chris Johnson for example. Tends to happen with workhorse backs which McCoy was in Philly.

Edited March 5, 2015 by BuffaloBillsForever

[Agent 91]

He ran the ball just as much in 2014 (312 carries) as in 2014 (314 carries). He averaged a yard less per carry, however.

Yes. Lane Johnson missed 4 games due to injury and McCoy averaged something like 2.9 a carry in that span. There could be your yard right there

 

And even still. He had north of 1100 last year. If we even got that... his down year... would you really be pissed?