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Unless he's bringing Matt Ryan with him, what does it matter if he reminds people of Julio Jones.

 

If the Bills really are going to sink or swim with Manuel, then get some oline help or just draft for the defense. Our skill position players are actually quite good compared to the rest of the league.

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With all due respect Bill, what an awful list. McKelvin was the best PR a few years ago & since the last half of 2012, he's been a very good starting cb.

 

Spiller averages 5.1 ypc & nearly had 1,000 yards at 4.6 on a bad ankle in a "bad year."

 

Gilmore broke his wrist & would be welcome on any team in the league. He will break out this year.

 

All 3 on a better team would be appreciated & help win games. It's all about situation. For all your talk about how horrible Whitner was, he played in a SB & a NFC title game. A player's team & situation is a huge factor in their success.

 

I'm not big on Watkins because I think we need a big wr but the guy is a ball player. My choice are the 1st round Qbs (so overrated) and Taylor Lewan. I think he will be at best a decent RT & he has Incognito vibes. I don't want a decent RT at 9.

This,

 

I can remember the season opener of 13 against the chiefs at RWS where I watched CJ spiller absolutely win a ball game just about by himself. He is absolutely capable of winning a ball game by himself. It will be interesting to see how this draft shakes out. This is Whaley's first full draft where he is the man and I am curious to see his stamp on it and what it will translate to in 3 or 4 yrs.

LV

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Football teams are built by successfully drafting players that most fans have never hear of in the 3rd through 5th round. You put 22 players out there (actually more) on offense and defense. In 6 years you have drafted twelve players in the first two rounds. Figure it out. In a deep draft I am more interested in getting more picks in the 50-150 range than looking for magic with the first round pick. And I'll bet that I never heard of most of the mid round picks.

 

http://nflcommunications.com/2011/04/18/what-is-average-nfl-player%E2%80%99s-career-length-longer-than-you-might-think-commissioner-goodell-says/

“There is a little bit of a misrepresentation or a misunderstanding on that. Frequently, it is said that the average career is about 3.5 years. In fact, if a player makes an opening day roster, his career is very close to six years,” Commissioner Goodell said. “If you are a first-round draft choice, the average career is close to nine years. That 3.5-year average is really a misrepresentation. What it adds is a lot of players who don’t make an NFL roster and it brings down the average
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I love Watkins, but am absolutely against trading up in the first round (esp that high) for anything other than a QB. We have lots of needs, be patient, take the best guy when your pick comes up.

 

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I vote for OT as well, but hopefully not the 4th rated guy on the board at the 9th pick. If they find themselves in that scenario, get better value at the position on day 2.

 

I am struggling with the "nth" player at a particular position argument. Isn't it possible that the 4th rated OT is better than the 1st rated player at other positions? Particularly if you consider talent, attitude, work ethic and the importance of a position. OT (even RT) is an important position and Martin has been considered no worse than a mid first round pick by most as far back as I can remember.

 

Another poster elsewhere pointed out that Jim Kelly was the 3rd QB taken in that draft (behind Elway and Todd Blackledge). Dan Marino was the 6th QB taken (Tony Eason and Ken O'Brien ahead of him).

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Seattle and San Fran, arguably the two best teams in the NFL didn't have top receivers last year, save perhaps Anquan Boldin with SF. Yet both had strong running games which complemented their passing games. Both have also invested heavily in their offensive lines, which is where I'd like to see the Bills go on Thursday night.

 

I don't have a major issue with the Bills receivers at this point and wouldn't be anti-Watkins if they traded up, but they've got to get another OT. Pears is declining, Hairston is a complete unknown, and the rest are journeymen or poor prospects.

 

Not to pick on you specifically but the bold is such an overblown statement that a lot of posters like to use. The Seattle OL was one of the worst in the league last year. And surprise, surprise the weakest point in that line was the LG position, Paul McQuistan, who was a 3rd round pick by the Raiders and has been a journeyman the majority of his career. The whole right side of the the line, for last years team, were low round picks. J.R. Sweezy was a 7th round pick by Seattle and Breno Giacomini was drafted by the Packers in the 5th. Giacomini was playing for Carpenter who was suppose to Seattle's bookend right tackle, drafted in the 1st, but can't stay on the field due to injury and has since been moved to left guard, where he still can't seem to stay healthy and has been average at best. Okung and Unger are both excellent at their positions and were both high draft picks.

 

The majority of the problems for the Seattle's line came from LG, RG, RT giving up a combined 17 sacks, 15 hits and 69 hurries. With Okung and Unger combing for 5 sacks, 3 hits and 15 hurries.

 

Seattle was good and won the Super Bowl last year because of their Defense.

 

Interestingly Seattle invested heavily in a WR much like Watkins, in Percy Harvin. And while he was injured a majority of the season, he made his presence felt in the Super Bowl. He had a kickoff return for a TD and had a 30 yard run which resulted in a FG. He also had another nice 15 yard run.

 

EDIT: To add to this a bit, since Pete Carroll has arrived they've drafted a total of 4 OL. Two of them are first round picks Okung and Carpenter. Okung seems to have found his stride but Carpenter with all his injuries and poor play has been a wasted pick. The other 2 OL were Moffitt, a 2nd rd pick, who is now with Denver and Bowie, who was a 7th rd pick. If anything, Pete Carroll invested heavily in the defense. More specifically the DL (11 picks, 4 DT and 7 DE) and Secondary (8 picks).

Edited by Wayne Cubed
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If you think Gilmore, McKelvin and Spiller are negatives then I have no idea what you want. Let these guys walk and see how fast they get signed and thrive elsewhere.

If you read my post, you noticed that I said that the above players are "good." And you are correct, they WOULD be signed by other clubs.

That said, the players above consist of a #9, #10, and #11. I know that you tend to wave pom-poms for every move the Bills make under any circumstances, but players selected that high should be the foundation of a football team. The truth however is that McKelvin took 4 or 5 years to produce, Gilmore is still struggling to develop, and Spiller is a small, situational running back who now has a few miles.

If this is YOUR idea of a good foundation for an NFL team, then I am going to have to quote my man in "Office Space."

I am going to "go ahead and disagree."

Edited by Bill from NYC
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Let's just forget 2012 when spiller put up 1600 yards.

 

Ankle sprain = small bum cut him.

 

Leodis and Spiller both have elite athleticism. So much wrong here.

 

RLB, we are not as much at odds here as you seem to think.....

 

I continue to stress that all 3 players are "good." I am simply of the opinion that the foundation of a football team should be the QB, pass rushers, and people who can block more than the players above. I think that the need for a strong OL is accentuated a bit for the Bills due to playing a lot in the elements, and having an inexperienced quarterback.

 

This is why I would not want this particular team to give away draft choices for Watkins.

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RLB, we are not as much at odds here as you seem to think

 

This is why I would not want this particular team to give away draft choices for Watkins.

 

Fair enough...i wouldn't mind a trade down to add more OL and pass rushers. (Not buying the Hughes or Gilmore and his cushion stock)

 

Spiller is a weapon that has to be accounted for jmo. Even as a decoy a lot of linebackers are always worried about him.

 

 

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Stopped reading right here. Oh my.

No offense but that's not that outlandish. Casserly has him ahead for 1, I believe McShay &/or Kiper as well. That sentiment is out there everywhere (at the very least that he grades out right with AJ Green & Julio).

 

Unless he's bringing Matt Ryan with him, what does it matter if he reminds people of Julio Jones.

 

If the Bills really are going to sink or swim with Manuel, then get some oline help or just draft for the defense. Our skill position players are actually quite good compared to the rest of the league.

Just because our QB is a question mark doesn't mean that the best talent available shouldn't be added. It needs to be the BPA.
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Johnny Football. he should jsut accept his job talking Texas football now on the pundit shows. Him and tebow are the same

 

That is 100% not true.

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I am struggling with the "nth" player at a particular position argument. Isn't it possible that the 4th rated OT is better than the 1st rated player at other positions? Particularly if you consider talent, attitude, work ethic and the importance of a position. OT (even RT) is an important position and Martin has been considered no worse than a mid first round pick by most as far back as I can remember.

 

Another poster elsewhere pointed out that Jim Kelly was the 3rd QB taken in that draft (behind Elway and Todd Blackledge). Dan Marino was the 6th QB taken (Tony Eason and Ken O'Brien ahead of him).

...and JP Losman was the 4th QB taken in the 1st round (after giving up a 1st & 2nd). You take the highest graded player on your board.
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Fair enough, not wanting to pay the price is different. There is certainly a solid argument that can be made on both sides of that issue. I honestly don't know what would be too high a price for me. I don't think that I would do any trades that involved next year's #1. I have my reservations about EJ but think that by the end of this draft the team will have lots of talent. A talented team with no QB is the worst; you are never bad enough to get that franchise guy. I really hope that EJ takes big steps this year or it really won't matter.

How can you think that an elite WR can make a difference on a team in which the QB clearly doesn't have enough time in the pocket to make plays. It certainly didn't work when the team brought in TO, as the QB just couldn't get him the ball. Instead of getting him another receiver, get him more protection.

 

The Bills have an elite D line, and how many games did they win? The Bills have an elite secondary in terms of high drafted players, and how many games did they win?

 

What kind of bothers me here is all the references to WR's AJ Green taken #4 or WR Julio Jones taken #6, and the Bills had a shot to draft either one of them, and chose a DT at #3 in Marcell Dareus instead. How much impact has Dareus had on winning games?

 

The Falcons gave up so many draft picks for Jones that year, five draft picks in all. Giving up their 1st, 2nd, 3rd round picks in 2011, and their 1st, and 4th round pick in 2012. Good lord, the bills could have drafted him with their pick or traded back gained some extra picks and still drafted him.

 

I absolutely hate the idea of this team trading up and giving up a bunch of draft picks for one guy, simply because I don't trust them to get it right with that one player!

 

Anyway, I still have difficulty in thinking of one elite WR who turned a average QB into a great one.

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How can you think that an elite WR can make a difference on a team in which the QB clearly doesn't have enough time in the pocket to make plays. It certainly didn't work when the team brought in TO, as the QB just couldn't get him the ball. Instead of getting him another receiver, get him more protection.

 

The Bills have an elite D line, and how many games did they win? The Bills have an elite secondary in terms of high drafted players, and how many games did they win?

 

What kind of bothers me here is all the references to WR's AJ Green taken #4 or WR Julio Jones taken #6, and the Bills had a shot to draft either one of them, and chose a DT at #3 in Marcell Dareus instead. How much impact has Dareus had on winning games?

 

The Falcons gave up so many draft picks for Jones that year, five draft picks in all. Giving up their 1st, 2nd, 3rd round picks in 2011, and their 1st, and 4th round pick in 2012. Good lord, the bills could have drafted him with their pick or traded back gained some extra picks and still drafted him.

 

I absolutely hate the idea of this team trading up and giving up a bunch of draft picks for one guy, simply because I don't trust them to get it right with that one player!

 

Anyway, I still have difficulty in thinking of one elite WR who turned a average QB into a great one.

I don't necessarily disagree at all. I am hoping that guy elevates the team like AJ Green or Julio did. Dalton still stinks but his team has been much better. I am not so much worried about elevating EJ as I am elevating the Bills.
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...and JP Losman was the 4th QB taken in the 1st round (after giving up a 1st & 2nd). You take the highest graded player on your board.

 

I think we are in agreement on this point. I was simply saying that it might be possible that the 4th OT is still BPA on Bills' board when pick 9 comes.

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I think we are in agreement on this point. I was simply saying that it might be possible that the 4th OT is still BPA on Bills' board when pick 9 comes.

Yes, it looks like we do agree. I have a lot of confidence in the staff. I think that they have a good sense of where they are and will do what's in their best interests.
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I think we are in agreement on this point. I was simply saying that it might be possible that the 4th OT is still BPA on Bills' board when pick 9 comes.

 

And you're absolutely correct in that thinking. The idea that a player is the best, 4th best, or 14th best player at a position doesn't necessarily tell me anything. You still have to evaluate the individual player on his own merits.

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I am with you, Bill, on Watkins. I do not think his college game will translate and he will be a big disappointment. That said, I do not see the Bills trading up for him at all. People love the skill positions and flashy players, but the Bills biggest need is a true starting OT for the right side, and if a potentially dominant one is there, they should jump. This is the biggest thing they can do to help the offense this year. They need two tackles - RT vs. LT not a big deal to me. It matters that they do not give up sack, and can run, from either side.

 

I do not agree with you on Manuel and would not advocate taking any of these QB's in the top ten, or for the Bills to take one at all at least through the first two rounds..

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I don't necessarily disagree at all. I am hoping that guy elevates the team like AJ Green or Julio did. Dalton still stinks but his team has been much better. I am not so much worried about elevating EJ as I am elevating the Bills.

I'd rather have it the other way around, and allow the QB to elevate the Bills to win games by getting him the best protection I possibly can.

 

 

 

The Atlanta Falcons are a good example here. In 2007 Atlanta was 4-12. They drafted QB Matt Ryan #3 overall back in 2008, and the team went 11-5 with a new QB, HC, staff. Then in 2011 the Falcons FO perceived all they needed was one more elite WR, as they already had two all pro's in their receiving corsp in Tony Gonzalaz, and WR Roddy White. The Falcons went ahead and give up five picks for him. Two #1's, a #2, a #3, a #4 for him, and they did win more games. The big difference is that they already had their developed franchise QB.

 

 

The Bills are not in the same situation, as they don't already have an all pro TE, all pro WR, or franchise QB who is already developed. Plus, the Bills don't have only one perceived need. They need an OT, OG, DE, TE, LBer, WR. I'd rather see them fill three of those holes with starters this draft rather then one player.

 

As for the Bengals they were in the playoffs back in 2009 with Carson Palmer at QB, and Chad Johnson & TJ whosyourmama at WR, so they already had the nucleus of a playoff team before they drafted Green or Dalton. The Bills had a shot to draft Andy Dalton. Like I've already said, I just don't trust these guys to get it right on one player.

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I am, and have been, completely against trading UP for ANY player, including Watkins. That said, I don't think the BILLS will actually trade up but instead do their best to trade DOWN and assuming that's the case, I believe as DW said they will go BPA. For some, that will cause some consternation because in all honesty, depending on where they end up IF they do trade down, could be a CB or LB with a 2nd Round pick being a CB or LB or DE. So while DW has stated they are committed to getting EJ weapons and protection, he knows the Draft can NOT be based purely on need...that's how you kill a team quickly, not assigning proper value. And to DW's credit, he has said that you assign the grade and you stick to your board, do the preparation, and it takes all the anxiety out of the Draft process. So, I think none of us really know what the BILLS value or what their board looks like, but I DO think we will be in for a surprise or two in the first couple days.....just a hunch.

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Spiller has a career average of 5.1 yards per carry, and is 2 years away from 1250 yards on 6.0 YPC. Even last year he had 900 yards on 4.6 YPC while playing the entire season on a bum ankle. Marshawn Lynch has had one season in his ENTIRE career with a YPC above 4.2. Spiller is on pace to be one of the all-time leaders in NFL history for career yards per carry. I believe only Jamaal Charles is ahead of him at this point.

 

The point is that we need more players that are ridiculously efficient with the ball in their hands. If Watkins produce at a rate like Spiller does then he will be a great player.

 

Edit: Sorry, Spiller is .1 behind Jim Brown and is 3rd all time for RBs.

Edited by Fingon
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Spiller has a career average of 5.1 yards per carry, and is 2 years away from 1250 yards on 6.0 YPC. Even last year he had 900 yards on 4.6 YPC while playing the entire season on a bum ankle. Marshawn Lynch has had one season in his ENTIRE career with a YPC above 4.2. Spiller is on pace to be one of the all-time leaders in NFL history for career yards per carry. I believe only Jamaal Charles is ahead of him at this point.

 

The point is that we need more players that are ridiculously efficient with the ball in their hands. If Watkins produce at a rate like Spiller does then he will be a great player.

 

Edit: Sorry, Spiller is .1 behind Jim Brown and is 3rd all time for RBs.

 

Yeah, it's a joke how much crap he gets. One of my best friends is a Jets fan (terrible person) and hates the Bills. The only positive thing he ever says is how good Spiller is. Yet, some fans constantly put him down.

 

Yeah, Spiller and his 5.1 ypc are the problem. Not the QBs, not the run defense, not the defense that folds in crunch time. It's Spiller. The crazy part is when he goes to another team and explodes, the same people will be trashing the Bills for letting him go. It's insane!

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Yeah, it's a joke how much crap he gets. One of my best friends is a Jets fan (terrible person) and hates the Bills. The only positive thing he ever says is how good Spiller is. Yet, some fans constantly put him down.

 

Yeah, Spiller and his 5.1 ypc are the problem. Not the QBs, not the run defense, not the defense that folds in crunch time. It's Spiller. The crazy part is when he goes to another team and explodes, the same people will be trashing the Bills for letting him go. It's insane!

I agree with this! I also wonder if having a matchup advantage on the outside, someone like Watkins or Evans, wouldn't benefit everyone on offense.
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Spiller has a career average of 5.1 yards per carry, and is 2 years away from 1250 yards on 6.0 YPC. Even last year he had 900 yards on 4.6 YPC while playing the entire season on a bum ankle. Marshawn Lynch has had one season in his ENTIRE career with a YPC above 4.2. Spiller is on pace to be one of the all-time leaders in NFL history for career yards per carry. I believe only Jamaal Charles is ahead of him at this point.

 

The point is that we need more players that are ridiculously efficient with the ball in their hands. If Watkins produce at a rate like Spiller does then he will be a great player.

 

Edit: Sorry, Spiller is .1 behind Jim Brown and is 3rd all time for RBs.

 

I repect your opinion and the stats you provided. The thing is, have you ever wondered why, if Spiller is now to be likened to Jim Brown, teams are not beating down the door to trade for him? I have huge doubts that the Bills could get a 3rd round pick for him. Passing league or not, Jim Brown would be worth an untold amount. In another thread Spiller was compared to Barry Sanders, and I suspect that Sanders might be just a little better than Spiller as well. ;)

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I repect your opinion and the stats you provided. The thing is, have you ever wondered why, if Spiller is now to be likened to Jim Brown, teams are not beating down the door to trade for him? I have huge doubts that the Bills could get a 3rd round pick for him. Passing league or not, Jim Brown would be worth an untold amount. In another thread Spiller was compared to Barry Sanders, and I suspect that Sanders might be just a little better than Spiller as well. ;)

The Eagles tried to trade for Spiller. The Bills weren't even interested in discussing it. Also, no one is saying Spiller is as good as Jim Brown. Brown played in an era when stopping the run was a defense's number one priority. All we are saying is that no one else in the NFL (besides Jamaal Charles) produces as much per touch.

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Don't be surprised if they take the safety out of Alabama or the safety out of Louisville. This would be in a nutshell why the Bills have not made the playoffs. They always let a real good player walk(whether it was their fault or not Byrd walked) & they try to replace them in the draft. They have done this numerous times in the last 10 years. The problem with this is your just spinning your wheels & you never get better.

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Don't be surprised if they take the safety out of Alabama or the safety out of Louisville. This would be in a nutshell why the Bills have not made the playoffs. They always let a real good player walk(whether it was their fault or not Byrd walked) & they try to replace them in the draft. They have done this numerous times in the last 10 years. The problem with this is your just spinning your wheels & you never get better.

The Bills already signed Byrd's replacement: Corey Graham.

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Thanks for posting!

 

I actually think that Watkins is one of the safest players in the draft.

 

I would actually say that I would be excited yet nervous if we drafted Mack. Aaron Curry comes to mind for someone who was really hyped yp but never really panned out in the NFL

 

 

CBF

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Many times I feared that the Bills would draft a particular player who I could strongly sense would not win us football games. A few examples are:

Leodis McKelvin

Stephon Gilmore

CJ Spiller

Some may argue that they are "good." Our won/loss record begs to differ and tells us that this doesn't matter.

 

There were some players that I did tend to over-rate. This is because I am not a professional GM.

 

There were others that I didn't think that any team would be stupid enough to draft high, such as Donte Whitner. The 2006 draft was my worst day as a Bills fan.

 

Well, this year, my biggest nightmare is Sammy Watkins. I see him as a possible flashy gadget player ala Spiller, which is the very last team this team needs. The thought of trading UP for him makes me cringe, and I guarantee that it will NOT result in winning football games. That said, it seems to be a real possibility :(.

 

So, what do I hope for? A QB (because I have little faith in Manuel), or an Offensive Tackle. An OT would increase the odds of Manuel being good imo. The absolute dumbest thing the Bills can do would be to trade up for Watkins. That said, it wouldn't surprise me at all if they did this.

 

I wish all of my fellow Bills Fans a productive draft. We really do deserve one this time. Have fun all!

 

GO BILLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ICYMI... projected 1st rd LB, Ryan Shazier - meet Sammy:

twitpic.com/e30jac

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Well if they do happen to get Watkins, let's hope that your intuition is wrong about him just like it was with McKelvin, Gilmore and Spiller because all three of them are good football players. And if your argument is that their record disproves this then I would ask you how the Vikings' record has been with Adrian Peterson or what the Jets ever won with Revis. All three of those guys were the right pick and the consensus pick by most experts at the time. How you mention those three and not Maybin or Troup over Gronkowski baffles me but this is nothing new. Let the record state that I have great "vibes" about Watkins by the way. EDIT: So I live in Colorado and am a diehard Rockies fan. Obviously Troy Tulowitzki is insane right now but my friend Bob, who also claims to be a Rockies fan, constantly says that he's overrated, can't stay healthy, etc. and says, just wait, he'll get hurt... It's gotten to a point where he almost wants Tulo to fail just so he can say "I told you so." I feel that you have this same thing going with several Bills players, most notably Gilmore. And ironically, my friend Bob was born and raised in NYC.

Edited by metzelaars_lives
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Well if they do happen to get Watkins, let's hope that your intuition is wrong about him just like it was with McKelvin, Gilmore and Spiller because all three of them are good football players.

I am sorry that you felt the need to be hostile without reading the post. Over and over in this thread I have said that all 3 are good players. That was not my point. I don't think that using top 10 picks on players such as these is a great idea if a team is trying to build a foundation.

In any event, maybe lashing out helps you get anger out of your system.

 

Be well and Go Bills!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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I am sorry that you felt the need to be hostile without reading the post. Over and over in this thread I have said that all 3 are good players. That was not my point. I don't think that using top 10 picks on players such as these is a great idea if a team is trying to build a foundation.

In any event, maybe lashing out helps you get anger out of your system.

 

Be well and Go Bills!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

So drafting good players isnt a good way to build the team?

 

Instead if disguising it, just own the fact that you always have, and always will believe that any first round pick on a player < 270 lbs is "squandering precious resources" and "not a way to build a team."

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I am sorry that you felt the need to be hostile without reading the post. Over and over in this thread I have said that all 3 are good players. That was not my point. I don't think that using top 10 picks on players such as these is a great idea if a team is trying to build a foundation.

In any event, maybe lashing out helps you get anger out of your system.

 

Be well and Go Bills!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Well I admit I haven't read the entire thread, I did read your original post in which you said (in reference to said three players) that "some may argue that they are 'good'." That is not a ringing endorsement as I interpreted it. Did you mention who you thought they should've taken in place of those three players? We desperately needed a cornerback and Gilmore was a lay up in the position we took him. Spiller shouldn't have dropped that far and Budddy Nix felt that he was too unique and special a talent to pass on him and it certainly paid off in 2012. As far as McKelvin, like Gilmore, he was the consensus best CB on the board when we picked and we desperately needed a CB at that time as well (don't agree with why needed one- ditching other first round CB's that had played well for us- but that is another conversation). I am not trying to vent anger, I just feel like you have this not-so-hidden agenda of telling everyone that you don't think Gilmore is going to be good and this entire thread is just another way for you to tell us that. I think Gilmore is going to be very good. And if he's not, you don't win the argument because it was a smart pick at the time by nearly everyone's account. It's not like it was a reach like Whitner, Troup, Graham, et al. So you may as well get on the bandwagon and start pulling for him like everyone else. And yes, go Bills!

Edited by metzelaars_lives
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