Joe B (The Athletic) on passing game problems (with data)

[billsfan89]

You don't really need a lot of data to see that the Bills just don't have a consistently good outside WR who can break coverages consistently and that's causing limitations to the offense. Right now the Bills have a very good TE and a very good slot WR (Kincaid and Shakir). The rest of the offense in terms of pass catchers are mostly role players. Good role players but still role players. Samuel and Moore gadget guys, Knox quality TE2, Hawes blocking TE, Ty Johnson pass catching back, and Keon is more of a big slot WR3/4 at this point. Palmer is the one WR that could maybe break outside coverage but he's hurt and not super consistent either. 

 

Largely I would say that the Bills simply need a WR on the boundary that teams respect. Put that trade in place and everything is fine offensively. Getting Olave for example would largely make teams think twice about stacking boxes with 8 and putting the safety over the middle single high and blitzing to Josh's right (the formula that seems to work to stop Cook and Josh at the moment). The data isn't needed when the eye test is very obvious...

[BearNorth]

6 minutes ago, Goin Breakdown said:

This version of Josh is what they want. Game manager. 

 

In what universe would you pay your franchise QB $55MM per year to be a "game manager"

[DCOrange]

1 minute ago, BearNorth said:

In what universe would you pay your franchise QB $55MM per year to be a "game manager"

Yeah I think a lot of folks are either using game manager to mean "QB that plays within structure" or they're just not really arguing in good faith. Do people think he won MVP last season while playing as a game manager or do they instead think that after he won MVP, our coaching staff was like "Woah, we can't have that moving forwards."

[BuffaloRebound]

This KC game is huge.  Could see a deal for WR happening in next 24 hours.  Spagnola will take away cook.  We need a downfield passing threat asap.  

[ControllerOfPlanetX]

41 minutes ago, Pete said:

Obvious we need a WR and intermediate passes to everyone but the Bills office and coordinator.  Keep the data coming, maybe it will open up some closed minds.

12 completions 3.92 yards average depth  🤮 

 

It’s quite obvious that the Bills’ analytics team is not very analytical.

 

[bmur66]

Exactly what my untrained eyes have seen. Beane better cut loose and make an offer someone can't refuse for a top tier day one starting no. 1 receiver or else they really don't want to win it all this year. 

[Scott7975]

Can I bump my thread about how we need a downfield passing game, or does everyone still think these 2-3 yard passes are fine?

[thenorthremembers]

18 minutes ago, Goin Breakdown said:

They don't want a passing game. They want a running game. This version of Josh is what they want. Game manager. No INTs, don't fumble so basically get the ball away from

josh as fast as possible. The MVP "unicorn" has been removed from the game. But hey we can run well now. Awesome. That'll win a couple games. 

 

Yeah thats not true in the least.  They want complimentary football.   But if you think they dont want to pass the ball well its because of your bias towards the coach.   The game manager tag on this board is out of control.   Since when did getting the ball out of your quarterbacks hands and not throwing picks become a bad thing?

[Low Positive]

44 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

If a trade for a wideout isnt announced today by 4pm its already too late.    They will not beat the Chiefs with no passing game. 

That may be true for the Bills, but the trading team has every incentive to hold out until the deadline to let the Pats, Steelers, and Bills bid the price up. In fact, a team like the Saints probably thinks (correctly, BTW) that the Bills will be more likely to give up more after a loss to the Chiefs makes them desperate. 

[ganesh]

51 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

When Palmer comes back, we need to throw him the ball more and downfield.  That's what he was brought here to be.

Kincaid and Shakir need to be our other primary targets.

Elijah Moore is decent and I think needs to have the ball thrown to him more.  He needs more targets than Coleman.  

Moore can average 60 receptions a year in Cleveland but not much here?  He is a decent WR.

Cook needs to have more routes thrown to him as well.  

 

I don't see what value Coleman adds.  At this point, neither do I with Samuel.  

 

The problem is that this offense is NOT having any rhythm...When they are not able to complete 3rd downs and drives stall, then the number of targets are very small and immeasurable.  Brady is definitely not scheming enough to make this offense work and is too dependent on the run game.  It is a shame that he is not able to use the MVP of the league any better.

[Avisan]

53 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

 

If you want a microcosm of the Bills’ passing experience enveloped in one play, look no further than their third-and-6 play at the beginning of the second quarter in Panthers territory. Allen, with Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, Elijah Moore, Dalton Kincaid and Ty Johnson on the field, took the shotgun snap and hung in the pocket, going through his progressions for 4.35 seconds — well past how long an offensive line generally gives its quarterback to throw. No one was open. Then, wanting to give his receivers another chance to get open, Allen spun out of the pocket and rolled to his left, holding the ball for an additional 6.51 seconds — at one point running through someone grabbing and ripping part of his uniform — before ultimately taking a 16-yard sack. That’s right, almost 11 seconds, and absolutely no one was open down the field, even in a scramble drill scenario.

 

 

 

Using this play is such a farce.  Allen did not "hang in the pocket", he felt pressure immediately and lost his throwing platform against zone with a shadow on Coleman.  The defense was able to keep receivers in front of them with 3v5 coverage and no threat of an Allen scramble, and at no point was Allen able to get into a position where a receiver could slip open and be spotted and delivered to by Allen.

 

Allen may have been definitionally within the pocket but he's focused on evading the rush for ~3 of those 4.35 seconds, the play is already broken at that point.  Good defensive playcall and excellent execution, even an elite receiver doesn't help us here unless Josh releases the ball immediately after the snap.

[TH3]

56 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6752393/2025/10/26/bills-panthers-win-wide-receiver-ed-oliver-injury/
 

If you want a microcosm of the Bills’ passing experience enveloped in one play, look no further than their third-and-6 play at the beginning of the second quarter in Panthers territory. Allen, with Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, Elijah Moore, Dalton Kincaid and Ty Johnson on the field, took the shotgun snap and hung in the pocket, going through his progressions for 4.35 seconds — well past how long an offensive line generally gives its quarterback to throw. No one was open. Then, wanting to give his receivers another chance to get open, Allen spun out of the pocket and rolled to his left, holding the ball for an additional 6.51 seconds — at one point running through someone grabbing and ripping part of his uniform — before ultimately taking a 16-yard sack. That’s right, almost 11 seconds, and absolutely no one was open down the field, even in a scramble drill scenario.

 

Allen always takes the blame head-on, saying he didn’t trust his feet and that he needs to be better at going through his progressions. He brought up one throw he missed to Moore, which, to be fair, he did, but the reason he’s probably beating himself up over it is because it was the only time all game a wide receiver was uncovered enough more than 15 yards from the line of scrimmage to warrant a target. You read that correctly. That target was the only time, all game, that Allen attempted a pass to a wide receiver that went further than 15 yards.

…

On all 19 of Allen’s passing attempts, his receiver’s average depth of target was 6.11 yards down the field. On his 12 completions, the average depth of the target shrinks to 3.92 yards per completion. That means 71.2 percent of Allen’s passing yards were after the catch. If you think that’s worrisome, let’s isolate the wide receivers. Of Allen’s 12 attempts to the wide receiver group on Sunday, his average depth of target decreased to 4.75 yards. He completed eight of those passes, with an average depth of target of 0.75 yards. In total, Allen gained only six yards with his arm to receivers through the air. The other 104 yards came after the catch. Allen did not complete a single pass to a wide receiver over 8 yards. He only completed a pass of over four air yards one time the entire game.

Now to the anti-magnum opus — let’s remove Shakir from the equation and focus solely on the boundary receivers. Allen completed only two passes for 22 yards to those receivers, all game, with a 40 percent completion rate. Coleman had both receptions.

The Bills aren’t always going to be facing teams with a backup quarterback surrendering the ball all game long. They can’t depend solely on the running game every week. They are going to be down in some games and need to rely on their passing attack to get them out of trouble. There will be teams that, like the Bills saw in Weeks 5 and 6, will dare them to throw by bottling up their ground game. If the Bills don’t have an answer early in games, there really isn’t much confidence they’ll be able to do it late. There have been no signs since the first week of the season that the Bills can be a consistent enough team, outside the numbers, to win through the air. … The Bills desperately need another boundary receiver. They need to be able to challenge defenses past 20 yards through the air. Heck, they need to challenge defenses past 10 yards. If they want to unlock their MVP quarterback and reinstall some of the magic the offense has lost, they must go out and strike for a receiver who can instantly become a starter, and potentially Allen’s top target outside the numbers. And in doing so, it might make their running game even better. It will be costly, and the Bills will want to find the right situation, but the need is as clear as day. It all depends on how much the Bills are willing to spend to get the right receiver.

 

Whoa …no sh.it…how many threads and posts can be written to say our recievers aint the best….its what we have. Hope for a speedy return for Josh and a trade.

[JMM]

I think Beane is a very good GM. And most of the " experts " and  also his peers in the league agree. But to not have addressed the #1 WR since the trade if Diggs by now is maddening at the least. He had sooo many chances in the draft and FA and trade market and just didn't get it done. With a future HOF qb I simply am astounded by this 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

Time to burn another 3rd round pick on an aging rental WR! 
 

This passing attack looks exactly like it did pre-Cooper trade, only this year the #4 WR isn't a threat deep. 

[Magox]

Not having Palmer makes a big difference, without him out there there will be some pretty difficult moments that this offense will have to overcome.   Chiefs are going to pose a problem, just have to hope that the offensive line can have another outstanding game against them, without that it's unlikely the Bills will get 30+ points

[Allen2Moulds]

34 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

I think probably literally every Bills fan understands we need an upgrade for our current boundary receivers (especially with Palmer out where it's now basically just Coleman). Not really sure the play Joe is specifically talking about is really the issue though; that one felt more like (1) the wrong play for the coverage we ultimately got and (2) simply a good job on defense. Felt like we just didn't get the defense we were expecting. If you want to say the issue is more that nobody was able to get open during the scramble drill, then yeah, that's not good either, but I don't think an upgrade at WR is getting open within the structure of that play either. It was just dead the moment the ball was snapped.

I think in this case both things are right. Plus, we can make a mid-season trade for a WR, can't do anything about the OC, other than hope that he improves going forward.

[SectionC3]

If they can find the right fit (schematic, contract, and term), I’d sink a 2+3 or a 1 into a WR.  We cant draft them well anyways.   And I look at it like this: would i prefer, say, Jordan Addison or the combinations of  Dewayne Carter/Keon Coleman TJ Sanders/Landon Jackson?  It’s Addison all day long. 

[Dillenger4]

I'm pumped for the KC game! We put up 40 points yesterday. I truly don't think Brady was looking to pass the ball downfield. In fact, he help a vanilla gameplan because we didn't need to show anything else. You guys are complaining about the clouds falling - yet we PUT UP FRICKIN 40 points!!

The Bills are playing vanilla. We haven't needed it yet. I guess time will tell.

We do need Palmer back... he will be our guy.

[SectionC3]

3 minutes ago, Magox said:

Not having Palmer makes a big difference, without him out there there will be some pretty difficult moments that this offense will have to overcome.   Chiefs are going to pose a problem, just have to hope that the offensive line can have another outstanding game against them, without that it's unlikely the Bills will get 30+ points

Two things - Palmer’s snap count was low to begin with.  And, importantly, even without him they have to try something downfield.  The sweet spot is second and short.  They just have to try at some Point to loosen things up. 
 

I lied.  Theres three things.  That scramble drill yesterday where the earth moved a great distance around the sun and nobody got open is precisely why Gabe should be in the roster when healthy.  He’s good at that, and he can replace the redundant nothingness of one of Moore/Samuel.  
 

 

[HappyDays]

32 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

I think probably literally every Bills fan understands we need an upgrade for our current boundary receivers (especially with Palmer out where it's now basically just Coleman). Not really sure the play Joe is specifically talking about is really the issue though; that one felt more like (1) the wrong play for the coverage we ultimately got and (2) simply a good job on defense. Felt like we just didn't get the defense we were expecting. If you want to say the issue is more that nobody was able to get open during the scramble drill, then yeah, that's not good either, but I don't think an upgrade at WR is getting open within the structure of that play either. It was just dead the moment the ball was snapped.

 

Coleman had a chance to break open after clearing #7 but he's wearing Jaycee Horn like a backpack:

 

You're right that Carolina's zone bottled up the routes on the play side. That's where you need your X to just beat his man and get open. And hey Jaycee Horn is a great player, he's going to win some of these reps against any WR, but the fact we had zero chance of ever beating him (or any other decent outside CB) 1v1 really lowers the margin of error for the rest of the passing offense. The play call and the QB have to be perfect on every play. It's too much to ask.