A visual argument against trading down & for trading up

[transplantbillsfan]

5 years of drafting in round 1 separated from 5 years of drafting in rounds 2 & 3.  It's just round they were drafted and the order they were drafted.

 

1st Round Wide Receivers

2023

1 SEA Jaxon Smith-Njigba

1 LAC Quentin Johnston

1 BAL Zay Flowers

1 MIN Jordan Addison

2022

 

1 ATL Drake London

1 NYJ Garrett Wilson

1 NOR Chris Olave

1 DET Jameson Williams

1 WAS Jahan Dotson

1 TEN Treylon Burks

2021

1 CIN Ja'Marr Chase

1 MIA Jaylen Waddle

1 PHI DeVonta Smith

1 NYG Kadarius Toney

1 BAL Rashod Bateman

2020

1 LVR Henry Ruggs III

1 DEN Jerry JeudyWR

1 DAL CeeDee Lamb

1 PHI Jalen Reagor

1 MIN Justin Jefferson

1 SFO Brandon Aiyuk

2019

1 BAL Marquise Brown

1 NWE N'Keal Harry

 

2nd & 3rd Round Wide Receivers

2023

2 CAR Jonathan Mingo

2 GB Jayden Reed

2 KC Rashee Rice

2 DEN Marvin Mims

3 HOU Nathaniel Dell

3 NYG Jalin Hyatt

3 CLE Cedric Tillman

3 IND Josh Downs

3 ARI Michael Wilson

3 LVR Tre Tucker

2022

2 GNB Christian Watson

2 NYG Wan'Dale Robinson

2 HOU John Metchie

2 NWE Tyquan Thornton

2 PIT George Pickens

2 IND Alec Pierce

2 KAN Skyy Moore

3 CHI Velus Jones Jr.

3 DAL Jalen Tolbert

3 CLE David Bell

3 SFO Danny Gray

2021

2 NYJ Elijah Moore

2 ARI Rondale Moore

2 SEA D'Wayne Eskridge

2 LAR Tutu Atwell

2 CAR Terrace Marshall Jr.

3 LAC Josh Palmer

3 WAS Dyami Brown

3 GNB Amari Rodgers

3 HOU Nico Collins

3 CLE Anthony Schwartz

2020

2 CIN Tee Higgins

2 IND Michael Pittman Jr.

2 JAX Laviska Shenault Jr.

2 DEN KJ Hamler

2 PIT Chase Claypool

2 LAR Van Jefferson

2 NYJ Denzel Mims

3 LVR Lynn Bowden Jr.

3 LVR Bryan Edwards

3 BAL Devin Duvernay

2019

2 SFO Deebo Samuel

2 TEN A.J. Brown

2 KAN Mecole Hardman

2 PHI JJ Arcega-Whiteside

2 IND Parris Campbell

2 ARI Andy Isabella

2 SEA D.K. Metcalf

3 PIT Diontae Johnson

3 SFO Jalen Hurd

3 WAS Terry McLaurin

3 BAL Miles Boykin

 

 

Bolded guys are hits... obviously in my opinion. 50% hit rate for round 1 over the last 5 years along with several I think we might qualify as TBD (JSN, Johnston, Williams) and the unfortunate situation of Ruggs who was actually on his way to being a hit.

 

There's an even stronger argument for getting one of the top 3 guys in the draft.  The hit rate there is 60%.  If JSN & Johnston pan out, that hit rate goes up to 73%.  If Ruggs didn't end up in prison and he continued on his upward trajectory in 2021, that hit rate for a top 3 Wide Receiver in the last 5 drafts goes up to 80%...

 

think about that... 80% hit rate potentially over the last 5 years if you just draft one of the first 3 WRs in the draft???  Rome Odunze, anyone????

 

Then you have the 2nd and 3rd round guys.  27% hit rate, very few TBDs (Mims, Hyatt... anyone else???) and a bunch of clear busts with some guys bouncing around the league if they're even still in it.

[TBBills Fan]

 

I was expecting pictures

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

I think its hard to rank where the players ended up getting picked and determining hit rate.  Ideally you would compare similar players and profiles and the grades that you have on them and look there at where you might have been wrong.  What makes Collins a hit and bateman a miss?  etc. 

 

Sometimes you'll be like - bro had trash QBs, or trash coaches, or whatever.  But thats i think how i would look at it.  

[Alphadawg7]

53 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

5 years of drafting in round 1 separated from 5 years of drafting in rounds 2 & 3.  It's just round they were drafted and the order they were drafted.

 

1st Round Wide Receivers

2023

1 SEA Jaxon Smith-Njigba

1 LAC Quentin Johnston

1 BAL Zay Flowers

1 MIN Jordan Addison

2022

 

1 ATL Drake London

1 NYJ Garrett Wilson

1 NOR Chris Olave

1 DET Jameson Williams

1 WAS Jahan Dotson

1 TEN Treylon Burks

2021

1 CIN Ja'Marr Chase

1 MIA Jaylen Waddle

1 PHI DeVonta Smith

1 NYG Kadarius Toney

1 BAL Rashod Bateman

2020

1 LVR Henry Ruggs III

1 DEN Jerry JeudyWR

1 DAL CeeDee Lamb

1 PHI Jalen Reagor

1 MIN Justin Jefferson

1 SFO Brandon Aiyuk

2019

1 BAL Marquise Brown

1 NWE N'Keal Harry

 

2nd & 3rd Round Wide Receivers

2023

2 CAR Jonathan Mingo

2 GB Jayden Reed

2 KC Rashee Rice

2 DEN Marvin Mims

3 HOU Nathaniel Dell

3 NYG Jalin Hyatt

3 CLE Cedric Tillman

3 IND Josh Downs

3 ARI Michael Wilson

3 LVR Tre Tucker

2022

2 GNB Christian Watson

2 NYG Wan'Dale Robinson

2 HOU John Metchie

2 NWE Tyquan Thornton

2 PIT George Pickens

2 IND Alec Pierce

2 KAN Skyy Moore

3 CHI Velus Jones Jr.

3 DAL Jalen Tolbert

3 CLE David Bell

3 SFO Danny Gray

2021

2 NYJ Elijah Moore

2 ARI Rondale Moore

2 SEA D'Wayne Eskridge

2 LAR Tutu Atwell

2 CAR Terrace Marshall Jr.

3 LAC Josh Palmer

3 WAS Dyami Brown

3 GNB Amari Rodgers

3 HOU Nico Collins

3 CLE Anthony Schwartz

2020

2 CIN Tee Higgins

2 IND Michael Pittman Jr.

2 JAX Laviska Shenault Jr.

2 DEN KJ Hamler

2 PIT Chase Claypool

2 LAR Van Jefferson

2 NYJ Denzel Mims

3 LVR Lynn Bowden Jr.

3 LVR Bryan Edwards

3 BAL Devin Duvernay

2019

2 SFO Deebo Samuel

2 TEN A.J. Brown

2 KAN Mecole Hardman

2 PHI JJ Arcega-Whiteside

2 IND Parris Campbell

2 ARI Andy Isabella

2 SEA D.K. Metcalf

3 PIT Diontae Johnson

3 SFO Jalen Hurd

3 WAS Terry McLaurin

3 BAL Miles Boykin

 

 

Bolded guys are hits... obviously in my opinion. 50% hit rate for round 1 over the last 5 years along with several I think we might qualify as TBD (JSN, Johnston, Williams) and the unfortunate situation of Ruggs who was actually on his way to being a hit.

 

There's an even stronger argument for getting one of the top 3 guys in the draft.  The hit rate there is 60%.  If JSN & Johnston pan out, that hit rate goes up to 73%.  If Ruggs didn't end up in prison and he continued on his upward trajectory in 2021, that hit rate for a top 3 Wide Receiver in the last 5 drafts goes up to 80%...

 

think about that... 80% hit rate potentially over the last 5 years if you just draft one of the first 3 WRs in the draft???  Rome Odunze, anyone????

 

Then you have the 2nd and 3rd round guys.  27% hit rate, very few TBDs (Mims, Hyatt... anyone else???) and a bunch of clear busts with some guys bouncing around the league if they're even still in it.

 

This lacks a lot of context.  Not every draft is equal, some drafts are top heavy and weak outside the top guys like 2021 for example.  Then others were considered weak for top tier prospects, but very deep for 2nd tier prospects outside round 1 like 2019.  

 

The hit rates and miss rates very much follow the patterns of the draft strength/weakness at the position.  So this doesn't IMHO dictate a model to follow and really shows you need to understand the strength and weakness of the position in each given draft to know what you need to do if you want to address WR.  

 

In a year like 2022 or 2021 where the draft going in was seen as a top heavy WR draft and weak after that, you better making a move to go get a guy.  But in a year like 2019, where there wasn't a lot of highly graded guys but a lot of strength in the depth, you are better letting it come to you or even trading back instead of reaching for a N'Keal Harry.  

 

This is a very deep draft, there are going to be a lot of guys who become good players outside the first round this draft.

Edited April 18 by Alphadawg7

[BuffaloBillyG]

46 minutes ago, TBBills Fan said:

 

I was expecting pictures

A pie chart may have convinced me. 

[transplantbillsfan]

52 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

This lacks a lot of context.  Not every draft is equal, some drafts are top heavy and weak outside the top guys like 2021 for example.  Then others were considered weak for top tier prospects, but very deep for 2nd tier prospects outside round 1 like 2019.  

 

The hit rates and miss rates very much follow the patterns of the draft strength/weakness at the position.  So this doesn't IMHO dictate a model to follow and really shows you need to understand the strength and weakness of the position in each given draft to know what you need to do if you want to address WR.  

 

In a year like 2022 or 2021 where the draft going in was seen as a top heavy WR draft and weak after that, you better making a move to go get a guy.  But in a year like 2019, where there wasn't a lot of highly graded guys but a lot of strength in the depth, you are better letting it come to you or even trading back instead of reaching for a N'Keal Harry.  

 

This is a very deep draft, there are going to be a lot of guys who become good players outside the first round this draft.

 

So give us some historically deep draft classes.  I feel like you're using some revisionist history here so I'll call your bluff.  The 2021 and 2020 classes were also considered deep.

 

Just look back at some of the narrative from the 2021 class alone:

 

Excerpt from The Athletic regarding the 2021 top 20 WRs in the class:

https://theathletic.com/2405616/2021/02/24/top-20-receivers-for-2021-nfl-draft-jamarr-chase-jaylen-waddle-top-talented-class/

The volume of talent at receiver rivals last year’s, which set a record with 13 receivers drafted in the first two rounds. I don’t think this year’s group will break that mark. But I do believe this class will have more receivers drafted in the top three rounds than last year’s class (15).

 

From PFF regarding the 2021 class:

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2021-nfl-draft-ranking-wide-receiver-prospects-lsu-jamarr-chase

The sheer depth is also incredible. For the second year in a row, several receivers will be selected in the first round, and they will be joined by a host of impact rookies taken on Day 2 and Day 3 of the draft, such is the array of talent available.

 

Sound familiar?

[dave mcbride]

3 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

So give us some historically deep draft classes.  I feel like you're using some revisionist history here so I'll call your bluff.  The 2021 and 2020 classes were also considered deep.

 

Just look back at some of the narrative from the 2021 class alone:

 

Excerpt from The Athletic regarding the 2021 top 20 WRs in the class:

https://theathletic.com/2405616/2021/02/24/top-20-receivers-for-2021-nfl-draft-jamarr-chase-jaylen-waddle-top-talented-class/

The volume of talent at receiver rivals last year’s, which set a record with 13 receivers drafted in the first two rounds. I don’t think this year’s group will break that mark. But I do believe this class will have more receivers drafted in the top three rounds than last year’s class (15).

 

From PFF regarding the 2021 class:

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2021-nfl-draft-ranking-wide-receiver-prospects-lsu-jamarr-chase

The sheer depth is also incredible. For the second year in a row, several receivers will be selected in the first round, and they will be joined by a host of impact rookies taken on Day 2 and Day 3 of the draft, such is the array of talent available.

 

Sound familiar?

For deep WR drafts, just look at 1996. Yeah, a long time ago, but it was ridiculous. 

[Tortured Soul]

Using your hits and misses, a 52% success rate in Round 1 (11 of 21) vs. a 27% success rate in Rounds 2 and 3 (14 of 52).

 

 So, you’d be better off trading down, getting a 2 and a 3 for a 1, and giving yourself a cumulative 54% chance at success.

[Alphadawg7]

5 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

So give us some historically deep draft classes.  I feel like you're using some revisionist history here so I'll call your bluff.  The 2021 and 2020 classes were also considered deep.

 

Just look back at some of the narrative from the 2021 class alone:

 

Excerpt from The Athletic regarding the 2021 top 20 WRs in the class:

https://theathletic.com/2405616/2021/02/24/top-20-receivers-for-2021-nfl-draft-jamarr-chase-jaylen-waddle-top-talented-class/

The volume of talent at receiver rivals last year’s, which set a record with 13 receivers drafted in the first two rounds. I don’t think this year’s group will break that mark. But I do believe this class will have more receivers drafted in the top three rounds than last year’s class (15).

 

From PFF regarding the 2021 class:

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2021-nfl-draft-ranking-wide-receiver-prospects-lsu-jamarr-chase

The sheer depth is also incredible. For the second year in a row, several receivers will be selected in the first round, and they will be joined by a host of impact rookies taken on Day 2 and Day 3 of the draft, such is the array of talent available.

 

Sound familiar?

 

I mean I gave you examples...and I definitely do not agree about 2021.  I did not find that to be a great draft in the day 2 and day 3 range at WR.  

 

So all I am saying, every draft is very different.  You can't just look at a hit rate from one draft and then equally compare it to the hit rate of the next draft which has totally different level of talent in it, not to mention, total different level of complexity too on how the draft falls based on the strength and weaknesses of other positions affecting teams decisions too.

 

[TBBills Fan]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

A pie chart may have convinced me. 

[transplantbillsfan]

35 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

For deep WR drafts, just look at 1996. Yeah, a long time ago, but it was ridiculous. 

 

Okay... but I think it just solidifies my point further.

 

1st round

1 1 NYJ Keyshawn Johnson

1 7 NWE Terry Glenn

1 18 STL Eddie Kennison

1 19 IND Marvin Harrison HOF

1 24 BUF Eric Moulds

 

2nd & 3rd round

2 31 NYJ Alex Van *****

2 34 NYG Amani Toomer

2 41 SDG Bryan Still

2 43 CAR Muhsin Muhammad

2 52 CHI Bobby Engram

2 56 GNB Derrick Mayes

 

3 89 SFO Terrell Owens HOF

3 94 DAL Stepfret Williams

[transplantbillsfan]

22 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I mean I gave you examples...and I definitely do not agree about 2021.  I did not find that to be a great draft in the day 2 and day 3 range at WR.  

 

Again... hindsight is 20/20 here.  You can say this yourself, but 2021 was viewed as a deep class.

 

22 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

So all I am saying, every draft is very different.  You can't just look at a hit rate from one draft and then equally compare it to the hit rate of the next draft which has totally different level of talent in it, not to mention, total different level of complexity too on how the draft falls based on the strength and weaknesses of other positions affecting teams decisions too.

 

 

I didn't just look at the hit rate from one draft.  I looked at the hit rate of 5 drafts.  And someone just asked me to add in 1996, which was labelled as "ridiculous."

 

1st round looks like an 80% hit rate... arguably 100%.

 

2nd and 3rd rounds... well... why don't you tell us who the hits are.  TO????  Absolutely! Ahmani Toomer & Muhsin Muhammed?  Yep!

 

That's 37.5%.  Better than the other years I looked at, but there's a wider gap now between the 1st round and 2nd & 3rd round WRs.

 

Anyone else in that draft from 2nd and 3rd round that year that would bring that up more?

 

Go find a draft where this doesn't play out.  Sure seems like my original premise is correct.

[Gunsgoodtime]

And not a single one of those was a Buffalo pick.  Thats 5 years in the top 3 rounds. The wr position has been so grossly undervalued by Mcbeane it should be malpractice 

[SoCal Deek]

Where’s the list of guys that would cause this board to light up with page after page of “Get ‘er Done Beane!” ?

[The Wiz]

32 minutes ago, Gunsgoodtime said:

And not a single one of those was a Buffalo pick.  Thats 5 years in the top 3 rounds. The wr position has been so grossly undervalued by Mcbeane it should be malpractice 

Gotta get after the QB first.  That why I'm expecting a DE in the first round.  Trust the process (I mean McDermott). 🙄

 

 

[mrags]

Looking at this list, the one thing that really comes to mind is how many people wanted Lavishka Shanault and boy he is just not good. 

[KDIGGZ]

The only sure thing WR in this draft is MHJ. Bills have 0% chance at getting him. Even if they mortgaged their future to somehow get to 8-10 to pick Odunze, he's not a sure thing imo. Obviously very talented but so were some of those other guys as mentioned. He might have a good career but maybe not superstar level.

 

Don't worry, I only have the Bills winning 9-10 games this year. They might have a top 20 pick next year plus Vikings 2 and their own 2 means 3 picks in the top 50 or so. I think they should let the chips fall as they may this year and reload next year.

[Alphadawg7]

46 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Again... hindsight is 20/20 here.  You can say this yourself, but 2021 was viewed as a deep class.

 

 

I didn't just look at the hit rate from one draft.  I looked at the hit rate of 5 drafts.  And someone just asked me to add in 1996, which was labelled as "ridiculous."

 

1st round looks like an 80% hit rate... arguably 100%.

 

2nd and 3rd rounds... well... why don't you tell us who the hits are.  TO????  Absolutely! Ahmani Toomer & Muhsin Muhammed?  Yep!

 

That's 37.5%.  Better than the other years I looked at, but there's a wider gap now between the 1st round and 2nd & 3rd round WRs.

 

Anyone else in that draft from 2nd and 3rd round that year that would bring that up more?

 

Go find a draft where this doesn't play out.  Sure seems like my original premise is correct.

 

Well I mean it doesn't take a leap in logic to know the hit rate is higher in round 1, that is true for every position and the nature of drafting higher graded prospects.    

 

Again, my main point is that there is context to every draft that this type of comparison does not account for which I have already mentioned, and that also includes inaccurate assessments of said drafts going into the draft.  Where a class proves a lot stronger or worse than was predicted prior to the draft. 

 

All good, just my 2 cents

9 minutes ago, mrags said:

Looking at this list, the one thing that really comes to mind is how many people wanted Lavishka Shanault and boy he is just not good. 

 

Oddly some people still wanted him this offseason lol...goes to show how long draft hype can survive like a long dwindling candle for some of these guys

[Pete]

A numerical argument for trading back and not trading up

 

Bills cap space= $2,898,830

 

That is for 51 players, we would like to have 90 going into camp.

90-51=49 players still needed

 

Bills need 2 WR, 1 RB2, PR, Edge, S, DL, C= 8 players needed, who will get high reps this season.

Most every special teams position is needed.

 

draft picks 28, 60, 128, 133, 144, 160, 163, 200, 204, 248.

Bills only have 2 picks in the first 127.  We do not have ammo to move up high.

We have too many needs for prominent roles to give away precious draft assets.

Considering our many needs, IMO Beane would be better trading back, and stocking up on top 100 draft picks

[strive_for_five_guy]

A written argument for why we should trade up:

 

[mrags]

5 minutes ago, Pete said:

A numerical argument for trading back and not trading up

 

Bills cap space= $2,898,830

 

That is for 51 players, we would like to have 90 going into camp.

90-51=49 players still needed

 

Bills need 2 WR, 1 RB2, PR, Edge, S, DL, C= 8 players needed, who will get high reps this season.

Most every special teams position is needed.

 

draft picks 28, 60, 128, 133, 144, 160, 163, 200, 204, 248.

Bills only have 2 picks in the first 127.  We do not have ammo to move up high.

We have too many needs for prominent roles to give away precious draft assets.

Considering our many needs, IMO Beane would be better trading back, and stocking up on top 100 draft picks

Can we actually try and get some elite talent for once? Is it really hard to realize we don’t have very good to great players on this team. We’ve got a team of average to good guys. It’s just not enough to move the needle. We need great guys to beat teams like the Chiefs. 
 

we have Allen. And without him we’d be a 5-6 win team every year. Let’s get some actual players to help him for once. 

[Pete]

Just now, mrags said:

Can we actually try and get some elite talent for once? Is it really hard to realize we don’t have very good to great players on this team. We’ve got a team of average to good guys. It’s just not enough to move the needle. We need great guys to beat teams like the Chiefs. 
 

we have Allen. And without him we’d be a 5-6 win team every year. Let’s get some actual players to help him for once. 

I would love one of the big 3.  Show me how you would make that happen?  Ditka looks increasingly stupid for trading his whole draft for Ricky Williams.  The only way Bills are getting into the top 10 is making a RIcky Williams deal

[mrags]

7 minutes ago, Pete said:

I would love one of the big 3.  Show me how you would make that happen?  Ditka looks increasingly stupid for trading his whole draft for Ricky Williams.  The only way Bills are getting into the top 10 is making a RIcky Williams deal

I think getting one of the top 3 around 9-11 is doable with pick 28, next years 1st (we now have 2x2nds next year and one of them will be fairly early) and likely a little more ammo. Throw one of them in maybe, or some other picks this year. 
 

or

 

move up to the middle teens for Thomas who Imo should be looked at as part of that top 4 group. 
 

of that’s not an option, I’d rather get someone like Worthy who may not be overall great but at least he’s got legendary speed to build off of. There’s plenty of options. 
 

regardless, 5th and 6th rd picks aren’t making this team most likely. And honestly, anyone in rd 6 you could just as easily find in the undrafted market after the draft. There’s always a mad dash the minute the draft is over. I’m willing to bet Beane signs about 10+ guys within the first 24 hours after the draft is complete. They will be JAGs and guys that will be there for the “90” that come to camp. But in the end they won’t make the team and it won’t matter. 

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Okay... but I think it just solidifies my point further.

 

1st round

1 1 NYJ Keyshawn Johnson

1 7 NWE Terry Glenn

1 18 STL Eddie Kennison

1 19 IND Marvin Harrison HOF

1 24 BUF Eric Moulds

 

2nd & 3rd round

2 31 NYJ Alex Van *****

2 34 NYG Amani Toomer

2 41 SDG Bryan Still

2 43 CAR Muhsin Muhammad

2 52 CHI Bobby Engram

2 56 GNB Derrick Mayes

 

3 89 SFO Terrell Owens HOF

3 94 DAL Stepfret Williams

Um, not really.

 

1 - Keyshawn Johnson (814 receptions, 10,571 yards, 64 tds)

7 - Terry Glenn (593 receptions; 8823 yards, 14.9 career ypr)

18 - Eddie Kennison (548 receptions; 8,345 yards, 15.2 career ypr)

19 - Marvin Harrison (HOF)

24 - Eric Moulds (764 receptions, 9,995 yards, all-pro (second team) twice)

31 - Alex Van D yke (bust)

34 - Amari Toomer (668 receptions, 9,497 yards; 14.2 career ypc; huge game in the SB vs the 19-0 Pats)

41 - Bryan Still (bust)

43 - Muhsin Muhammed (860 receptions, 11,438 yards, 62 TDs)

52 - Bobby Engram (650 receptions)

56 - Derrick Mayes (bust; one decent season in Seattle in 1999)

89 - Terrell Owens (HOF)

...

135 - Joe Horn (603 receptions; 8,744 yards, 14.2 ypr, 58 TDs)

153 - Jermaine Lewis (great career as a returner; 2-time all pro)

[Don Otreply]

3 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

A pie chart may have convinced me. 

I like pie, it’s a man’s dessert. 

[BADOLBILZ]

4 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

5 years of drafting in round 1 separated from 5 years of drafting in rounds 2 & 3.  It's just round they were drafted and the order they were drafted.

 

1st Round Wide Receivers

2023

1 SEA Jaxon Smith-Njigba

1 LAC Quentin Johnston

1 BAL Zay Flowers

1 MIN Jordan Addison

2022

 

1 ATL Drake London

1 NYJ Garrett Wilson

1 NOR Chris Olave

1 DET Jameson Williams

1 WAS Jahan Dotson

1 TEN Treylon Burks

2021

1 CIN Ja'Marr Chase

1 MIA Jaylen Waddle

1 PHI DeVonta Smith

1 NYG Kadarius Toney

1 BAL Rashod Bateman

2020

1 LVR Henry Ruggs III

1 DEN Jerry JeudyWR

1 DAL CeeDee Lamb

1 PHI Jalen Reagor

1 MIN Justin Jefferson

1 SFO Brandon Aiyuk

2019

1 BAL Marquise Brown

1 NWE N'Keal Harry

 

2nd & 3rd Round Wide Receivers

2023

2 CAR Jonathan Mingo

2 GB Jayden Reed

2 KC Rashee Rice

2 DEN Marvin Mims

3 HOU Nathaniel Dell

3 NYG Jalin Hyatt

3 CLE Cedric Tillman

3 IND Josh Downs

3 ARI Michael Wilson

3 LVR Tre Tucker

2022

2 GNB Christian Watson

2 NYG Wan'Dale Robinson

2 HOU John Metchie

2 NWE Tyquan Thornton

2 PIT George Pickens

2 IND Alec Pierce

2 KAN Skyy Moore

3 CHI Velus Jones Jr.

3 DAL Jalen Tolbert

3 CLE David Bell

3 SFO Danny Gray

2021

2 NYJ Elijah Moore

2 ARI Rondale Moore

2 SEA D'Wayne Eskridge

2 LAR Tutu Atwell

2 CAR Terrace Marshall Jr.

3 LAC Josh Palmer

3 WAS Dyami Brown

3 GNB Amari Rodgers

3 HOU Nico Collins

3 CLE Anthony Schwartz

2020

2 CIN Tee Higgins

2 IND Michael Pittman Jr.

2 JAX Laviska Shenault Jr.

2 DEN KJ Hamler

2 PIT Chase Claypool

2 LAR Van Jefferson

2 NYJ Denzel Mims

3 LVR Lynn Bowden Jr.

3 LVR Bryan Edwards

3 BAL Devin Duvernay

2019

2 SFO Deebo Samuel

2 TEN A.J. Brown

2 KAN Mecole Hardman

2 PHI JJ Arcega-Whiteside

2 IND Parris Campbell

2 ARI Andy Isabella

2 SEA D.K. Metcalf

3 PIT Diontae Johnson

3 SFO Jalen Hurd

3 WAS Terry McLaurin

3 BAL Miles Boykin

 

 

Bolded guys are hits... obviously in my opinion. 50% hit rate for round 1 over the last 5 years along with several I think we might qualify as TBD (JSN, Johnston, Williams) and the unfortunate situation of Ruggs who was actually on his way to being a hit.

 

There's an even stronger argument for getting one of the top 3 guys in the draft.  The hit rate there is 60%.  If JSN & Johnston pan out, that hit rate goes up to 73%.  If Ruggs didn't end up in prison and he continued on his upward trajectory in 2021, that hit rate for a top 3 Wide Receiver in the last 5 drafts goes up to 80%...

 

think about that... 80% hit rate potentially over the last 5 years if you just draft one of the first 3 WRs in the draft???  Rome Odunze, anyone????

 

Then you have the 2nd and 3rd round guys.  27% hit rate, very few TBDs (Mims, Hyatt... anyone else???) and a bunch of clear busts with some guys bouncing around the league if they're even still in it.

 

 

Hit rates in general drop a lot in each subsequent round.   

 

You can try to tell ardent trade-back people that all day and give them statistical proof to back it up...........they just won't want to hear it.

 

But none of trading up, staying put or trading back has proven to be a consistently reliable "formula".

 

 

 

 

[billsfan89]

Trading down usually works out more frequently but there’s still risk in both options. Trading 2-3 additional picks in that years draft plus a future premium pick is tying up 5 draft choices 3-4 of which are high likely high value picks into a single player.

 

Now if that single player is great it’s worth the cost and players drafted in the top 5-10 are better prospects than you find elsewhere in the draft generally speaking. But you also risk losing 5 draft picks and likely 3-4 premium ones if that one single player doesn’t work out.

 

Of course while the NFL is about depth and largely about avoiding weaknesses on a roster there’s still a need for elite playmakers on both sides of the ball. So when you trade down while you get more picks you get lesser quality prospects which in turn can lead to more decent but not spectacular players. You also run the risk of missing out on elite players that can make a difference. You need at least 3 or so elite players on both sides of the ball generally speaking.

 

In the end I prefer trading down over trading up for any non-QB. I think especially when you have a regime good at drafting and developing players you probably want more cracks at finding good players as opposed to one big “All In” swing. Especially this season when the Bills roster is more shallow and in need of cheap talent it’s probably better to get more top level picks.

 

Last draft the Bills were only able to roster 3 players from the draft of their six selections two were waived and claimed by the Texans and Shorter was effectively “red shirted” for the year being on IR.

 

This year the Bills could easily have room for 7-10 drafted players showing you that the depth is not quite as good as it was.

[transplantbillsfan]

4 hours ago, Tortured Soul said:

Using your hits and misses, a 52% success rate in Round 1 (11 of 21) vs. a 27% success rate in Rounds 2 and 3 (14 of 52).

 

 So, you’d be better off trading down, getting a 2 and a 3 for a 1, and giving yourself a cumulative 54% chance at success.

 

Actually... you'd be better getting one of the top 3 WRs in the draft than either of those scenarios.

 

Diana Russini posted an article going back a few weeks ago that goes back 13 years. Top 3 WR has the highest hit %.

[section122]

4 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

So give us some historically deep draft classes.  I feel like you're using some revisionist history here so I'll call your bluff.  The 2021 and 2020 classes were also considered deep.

 

Just look back at some of the narrative from the 2021 class alone:

 

Excerpt from The Athletic regarding the 2021 top 20 WRs in the class:

https://theathletic.com/2405616/2021/02/24/top-20-receivers-for-2021-nfl-draft-jamarr-chase-jaylen-waddle-top-talented-class/

The volume of talent at receiver rivals last year’s, which set a record with 13 receivers drafted in the first two rounds. I don’t think this year’s group will break that mark. But I do believe this class will have more receivers drafted in the top three rounds than last year’s class (15).

 

From PFF regarding the 2021 class:

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2021-nfl-draft-ranking-wide-receiver-prospects-lsu-jamarr-chase

The sheer depth is also incredible. For the second year in a row, several receivers will be selected in the first round, and they will be joined by a host of impact rookies taken on Day 2 and Day 3 of the draft, such is the array of talent available.

 

Sound familiar?

 

I can spin your numbers differently though to favor staying put or trading back using the same data.

 

As 20 and 21 are the comparable deep drafts:

 

2020 - Had a ridiculous 5 of the first 8 receivers drafted be a hit.  Furthermore, the hits were drafted 3,5,6,7,8.  The busts were 1,2, and 4.  This data wouls say there is room to either stay put or trade back and still get a quality wr.

 

2021 - 5 of the first 7 were hits.  The hits were 1,2,3,6, and 7.  The misses were 4 and 5.  This would say you could stay put and still have a 5/7 chance to get a good wr unless you think 7 wrs will go before 28 this year. 

 

I wont ignore your other data but itll be briefer.

 

2019 the 2 1st round guys were busts and the only 2 hits were taken in the 2nd round.  Would support a trade back or stay put.

 

2022 - i think jameson williams will break out this year but for now I wont count him.  4 of the first 7 were hits.  This year would support trading up maybe but watson was a hit in the 2nd round so we could have hung tight if our scouting is to be trusted.

 

2023 - way to early to make any sort of calls on these guys.  Even using your thought though 4 out of 7 guys hit.

 

So unless you think 7 guys will go before 28 the Bills have a 20 out of 31 chance to pick an impact wr or a 65% chance. Or with your addition of jsn and Johnston it goes to 71% or adding ruggs 74%.  Better odds without the hypotheticals and less odds without them because the actual info has more data points.

[transplantbillsfan]

3 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

The only sure thing WR in this draft is MHJ. Bills have 0% chance at getting him. Even if they mortgaged their future to somehow get to 8-10 to pick Odunze, he's not a sure thing imo. Obviously very talented but so were some of those other guys as mentioned. He might have a good career but maybe not superstar level.

 

Don't worry, I only have the Bills winning 9-10 games this year. They might have a top 20 pick next year plus Vikings 2 and their own 2 means 3 picks in the top 50 or so. I think they should let the chips fall as they may this year and reload next year.

 

So funny story... my eyes are apparently going bad and sometimes I look at these posts on my 8 inch tablet. I make the text bigger, which cuts off usernames. It's kinda nice because I read every post without bias against the name.

 

As soon as I got to the bolded line, I knew it would be only a couple posters... you were one of them 

[transplantbillsfan]

3 hours ago, Pete said:

A numerical argument for trading back and not trading up

 

Bills cap space= $2,898,830

 

That is for 51 players, we would like to have 90 going into camp.

90-51=49 players still needed

 

Bills need 1 RB3= 1 players needed, who will get high reps this season.

Most every special teams position is needed.

 

draft picks 28, 60, 128, 133, 144, 160, 163, 200, 204, 248.

Bills only have 2 picks in the first 127.  We do not have ammo to move up high.

We have too many needs for prominent roles to give away precious draft assets.

Considering our many needs, IMO Beane would be better trading back, and stocking up on top 100 draft picks

 

There... I fixed it for you with the bolded.

 

Buffalo at this moment only has 2 true NEEDS on the team. A WR and RB for the roster.

 

The rest of the things you had there arenwants... McBeane may disagree.

 

You said Center. Did you think Beane was lying about McGovern shifting to Center?

 

You said Safety. That's just a want on your part. We have 2 Safeties on the team who have started many NFL games and 2 backups who have been in the system for a while.

 

You also neglected the $10m CAP space we get June 1st.

[Mikie2times]

 

A visual argument against excessive quinoa 

[thewookie1]

The issue with trading down is the Chiefs get 1st dibs on a WR before us then.

[Beck Water]

7 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

5 years of drafting in round 1 separated from 5 years of drafting in rounds 2 & 3.  It's just round they were drafted and the order they were drafted.

 

1st Round Wide Receivers

2023

1 SEA Jaxon Smith-Njigba

1 LAC Quentin Johnston

1 BAL Zay Flowers

1 MIN Jordan Addison

2022

 

1 ATL Drake London

1 NYJ Garrett Wilson

1 NOR Chris Olave

1 DET Jameson Williams

1 WAS Jahan Dotson

1 TEN Treylon Burks

2021

1 CIN Ja'Marr Chase

1 MIA Jaylen Waddle

1 PHI DeVonta Smith

1 NYG Kadarius Toney

1 BAL Rashod Bateman

2020

1 LVR Henry Ruggs III

1 DEN Jerry JeudyWR

1 DAL CeeDee Lamb

1 PHI Jalen Reagor

1 MIN Justin Jefferson

1 SFO Brandon Aiyuk

2019

1 BAL Marquise Brown

1 NWE N'Keal Harry

 

2nd & 3rd Round Wide Receivers

2023

2 CAR Jonathan Mingo

2 GB Jayden Reed

2 KC Rashee Rice

2 DEN Marvin Mims

3 HOU Nathaniel Dell

3 NYG Jalin Hyatt

3 CLE Cedric Tillman

3 IND Josh Downs

3 ARI Michael Wilson

3 LVR Tre Tucker

2022

2 GNB Christian Watson

2 NYG Wan'Dale Robinson

2 HOU John Metchie

2 NWE Tyquan Thornton

2 PIT George Pickens

2 IND Alec Pierce

2 KAN Skyy Moore

3 CHI Velus Jones Jr.

3 DAL Jalen Tolbert

3 CLE David Bell

3 SFO Danny Gray

2021

2 NYJ Elijah Moore

2 ARI Rondale Moore

2 SEA D'Wayne Eskridge

2 LAR Tutu Atwell

2 CAR Terrace Marshall Jr.

3 LAC Josh Palmer

3 WAS Dyami Brown

3 GNB Amari Rodgers

3 HOU Nico Collins

3 CLE Anthony Schwartz

2020

2 CIN Tee Higgins

2 IND Michael Pittman Jr.

2 JAX Laviska Shenault Jr.

2 DEN KJ Hamler

2 PIT Chase Claypool

2 LAR Van Jefferson

2 NYJ Denzel Mims

3 LVR Lynn Bowden Jr.

3 LVR Bryan Edwards

3 BAL Devin Duvernay

2019

2 SFO Deebo Samuel

2 TEN A.J. Brown

2 KAN Mecole Hardman

2 PHI JJ Arcega-Whiteside

2 IND Parris Campbell

2 ARI Andy Isabella

2 SEA D.K. Metcalf

3 PIT Diontae Johnson

3 SFO Jalen Hurd

3 WAS Terry McLaurin

3 BAL Miles Boykin

 

 

Bolded guys are hits... obviously in my opinion. 50% hit rate for round 1 over the last 5 years along with several I think we might qualify as TBD (JSN, Johnston, Williams) and the unfortunate situation of Ruggs who was actually on his way to being a hit.

 

There's an even stronger argument for getting one of the top 3 guys in the draft.  The hit rate there is 60%.  If JSN & Johnston pan out, that hit rate goes up to 73%.  If Ruggs didn't end up in prison and he continued on his upward trajectory in 2021, that hit rate for a top 3 Wide Receiver in the last 5 drafts goes up to 80%...

 

think about that... 80% hit rate potentially over the last 5 years if you just draft one of the first 3 WRs in the draft???  Rome Odunze, anyone????

 

Then you have the 2nd and 3rd round guys.  27% hit rate, very few TBDs (Mims, Hyatt... anyone else???) and a bunch of clear busts with some guys bouncing around the league if they're even still in it.

 

Great that you put so much work into this, but how are you getting to 60% hit rate over the last 5 years if you just draft one of the first 3 WR in the 1st round of the draft?  That's 14 WR in the last 5 years (2019 saw only 2).  By your assessment, that's 8 hits.  8/14 = 57%.  Now that's better than a coin flip, but not too much.

 

Now let's look at what happens if you just draft one of the first 2 WR in the 2nd round of the draft?  That's 10 WR over the last 5 years.  By your assessment, that's 6 hits, so 6/10 = 60%.  That's actually BETTER than what you would get if you just drafted one of the first 3 WR in the first round!!!!!  So according to your data - we would be just as good or better if we TRADE BACK!  AJ Brown is the best WR in the 2019 draft, with Deebo Samuel a close 2nd.  

 

Sorry, but once you start what-if'ing, like "what if Ruggs didn't go to prison?" respectfully, we're entering the realm of fancy.  What if Jerry Jeudy had a decent QB throwing to him instead of Drew Lock, Teddy Bridgewater, and The Ghost of Russell Wilson? 

 

3 hours ago, mrags said:

Looking at this list, the one thing that really comes to mind is how many people wanted Lavishka Shanault and boy he is just not good. 

 

What if Shenault has better QB than Mayfield, Darnold, and Bryce Young?

[transplantbillsfan]

3 hours ago, Pete said:

I would love one of the big 3.  Show me how you would make that happen?  Ditka looks increasingly stupid for trading his whole draft for Ricky Williams.  The only way Bills are getting into the top 10 is making a RIcky Williams deal

 

What a terrible example!

 

At least use the 2011 Julio Jones trade. That's worse case scenario. Also look at the Mahomes and Jameson Williams trade up.

 

Good grief at least be a little more realistic with your examples.

[Thurman#1]

7 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

5 years of drafting in round 1 separated from 5 years of drafting in rounds 2 & 3.  It's just round they were drafted and the order they were drafted.

 

1st Round Wide Receivers

2023

1 SEA Jaxon Smith-Njigba

1 LAC Quentin Johnston

1 BAL Zay Flowers

1 MIN Jordan Addison

2022

 

1 ATL Drake London

1 NYJ Garrett Wilson

1 NOR Chris Olave

1 DET Jameson Williams

1 WAS Jahan Dotson

1 TEN Treylon Burks

2021

1 CIN Ja'Marr Chase

1 MIA Jaylen Waddle

1 PHI DeVonta Smith

1 NYG Kadarius Toney

1 BAL Rashod Bateman

2020

1 LVR Henry Ruggs III

1 DEN Jerry JeudyWR

1 DAL CeeDee Lamb

1 PHI Jalen Reagor

1 MIN Justin Jefferson

1 SFO Brandon Aiyuk

2019

1 BAL Marquise Brown

1 NWE N'Keal Harry

 

2nd & 3rd Round Wide Receivers

2023

2 CAR Jonathan Mingo

2 GB Jayden Reed

2 KC Rashee Rice

2 DEN Marvin Mims

3 HOU Nathaniel Dell

3 NYG Jalin Hyatt

3 CLE Cedric Tillman

3 IND Josh Downs

3 ARI Michael Wilson

3 LVR Tre Tucker

2022

2 GNB Christian Watson

2 NYG Wan'Dale Robinson

2 HOU John Metchie

2 NWE Tyquan Thornton

2 PIT George Pickens

2 IND Alec Pierce

2 KAN Skyy Moore

3 CHI Velus Jones Jr.

3 DAL Jalen Tolbert

3 CLE David Bell

3 SFO Danny Gray

2021

2 NYJ Elijah Moore

2 ARI Rondale Moore

2 SEA D'Wayne Eskridge

2 LAR Tutu Atwell

2 CAR Terrace Marshall Jr.

3 LAC Josh Palmer

3 WAS Dyami Brown

3 GNB Amari Rodgers

3 HOU Nico Collins

3 CLE Anthony Schwartz

2020

2 CIN Tee Higgins

2 IND Michael Pittman Jr.

2 JAX Laviska Shenault Jr.

2 DEN KJ Hamler

2 PIT Chase Claypool

2 LAR Van Jefferson

2 NYJ Denzel Mims

3 LVR Lynn Bowden Jr.

3 LVR Bryan Edwards

3 BAL Devin Duvernay

2019

2 SFO Deebo Samuel

2 TEN A.J. Brown

2 KAN Mecole Hardman

2 PHI JJ Arcega-Whiteside

2 IND Parris Campbell

2 ARI Andy Isabella

2 SEA D.K. Metcalf

3 PIT Diontae Johnson

3 SFO Jalen Hurd

3 WAS Terry McLaurin

3 BAL Miles Boykin

 

 

Bolded guys are hits... obviously in my opinion. 50% hit rate for round 1 over the last 5 years along with several I think we might qualify as TBD (JSN, Johnston, Williams) and the unfortunate situation of Ruggs who was actually on his way to being a hit.

 

There's an even stronger argument for getting one of the top 3 guys in the draft.  The hit rate there is 60%.  If JSN & Johnston pan out, that hit rate goes up to 73%.  If Ruggs didn't end up in prison and he continued on his upward trajectory in 2021, that hit rate for a top 3 Wide Receiver in the last 5 drafts goes up to 80%...

 

think about that... 80% hit rate potentially over the last 5 years if you just draft one of the first 3 WRs in the draft???  Rome Odunze, anyone????

 

Then you have the 2nd and 3rd round guys.  27% hit rate, very few TBDs (Mims, Hyatt... anyone else???) and a bunch of clear busts with some guys bouncing around the league if they're even still in it.

 

 

Unbelievable how you miss the point.

 

You look ONLY at the receivers. Thing is, trades have two sides. You get something. And you give stuff up. And yet not a single word about the whole reason why massive trades consistently make teams worse.

 

Yes, you get, on the average, better players further up.

 

Um, DUH!

 

Nobody argues you tend to get better players further up.

 

Your post is precisely what you get from a person like you. You're not a Bills fan, you're a Josh Allen fan.

 

So it doesn't even occur to you to address the stuff you have to give up, because it just doesn't matter to you. How Josh is directly affected is all that you think about.

 

Point is, it matters to the team what you have to give up.

 

Massey-Thaler and all the other studies say the same thing about this. Simply, trading up and giving up major draft assets like extra ones and twos is a horrible idea unless you are trading up for a potential franchise QB. Trades like this produce overall poor results at a high rate. Every study says the same thing. Every single one.

 

 

[Beck Water]

3 hours ago, mrags said:

Can we actually try and get some elite talent for once? Is it really hard to realize we don’t have very good to great players on this team. We’ve got a team of average to good guys. It’s just not enough to move the needle. We need great guys to beat teams like the Chiefs. 
 

we have Allen. And without him we’d be a 5-6 win team every year. Let’s get some actual players to help him for once. 

 

I agree with you completely on the need for elite talent.

Where the debate seems to lie is with what is the best strategy to acquire same?

 

As I pointed out to @transplantbillsfan above, the "hit rate" from taking one of the top-3 WR in the 1st round, and taking 1 of the top-2 WR in the 2nd round, are practically identical - 8/14 vs 6/10, 57% vs 60%.  And some of those 2nd round players are arguably elite WR talent - AJ Brown, Deebo Samuel, Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman Jr.

 

If I were guessing which way the frog will jump, my guess is that Beane will trade up slightly and draft a WR in the 1st.

But I don't think it would be closing the door on the potential for elite talent to trade back slightly and get a guy at the top of the 2nd, either.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 19 by Beck Water

[Thurman#1]

More, looking at the lists of top three guys in the draft you put up, one question occurs.

 

How many Super Bowl winners are there?

 

Again, a team that gives up top-level draft assets to trade up for  a top WR has never won a Super Bowl.

 

Never.

[mrags]

2 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

What a terrible example!

 

At least use the 2011 Julio Jones trade. That's worse case scenario. Also look at the Mahomes and Jameson Williams trade up.

 

Good grief at least be a little more realistic with your examples.

I thought a ridiculous trade 25 years ago was also a bit dumb. I get the point. But you made a better one. The Mahomes trade really sticks out to me here. 27th overall, a 3rd, and a first the next year. Not sure if the trade chart has changed that much since 2017 or not but if that’s still the going rate that’s an easy yay for me if Odunze makes it to 10 or in that range. And I get we don’t have a 3rd this year, so maybe 1st this year, 2nd this year, and then you could possibly get away with a 2nd and something else next year. I don’t follow the charts and I’m not about to. So many deals get done on draft day there’s no guarantee everyone follows those charts. And if the pros are right that there are only so many draftable guys in this draft, it would make sense to get one of the best ones. JMO. 

[transplantbillsfan]

3 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Um, not really.

 

1 - Keyshawn Johnson (814 receptions, 10,571 yards, 64 tds)

7 - Terry Glenn (593 receptions; 8823 yards, 14.9 career ypr)

18 - Eddie Kennison (548 receptions; 8,345 yards, 15.2 career ypr)

19 - Marvin Harrison (HOF)

24 - Eric Moulds (764 receptions, 9,995 yards, all-pro (second team) twice)

31 - Alex Van D yke (bust)

34 - Amari Toomer (668 receptions, 9,497 yards; 14.2 career ypc; huge game in the SB vs the 19-0 Pats)

41 - Bryan Still (bust)

43 - Muhsin Muhammed (860 receptions, 11,438 yards, 62 TDs)

52 - Bobby Engram (650 receptions)

56 - Derrick Mayes (bust; one decent season in Seattle in 1999)

89 - Terrell Owens (HOF)

...

135 - Joe Horn (603 receptions; 8,744 yards, 14.2 ypr, 58 TDs)

153 - Jermaine Lewis (great career as a returner; 2-time all pro)

 

The fact that you tried to make a guy who was an All-Pro twice as a punt returner really says everything here.

 

If you're going to make an argument, don't reach. 

 

We need a #1 or #2 WR... not a punt returner.

 

Focus on that

7 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Unbelievable how you miss the point.

 

You look ONLY at the receivers. Thing is, trades have two sides. You get something. And you give stuff up. And yet not a single word about the whole reason why massive trades consistently make teams worse.

 

Yes, you get, on the average, better players further up.

 

Um, DUH!

 

Nobody argues you tend to get better players further up.

 

Your post is precisely what you get from a person like you. You're not a Bills fan, you're a Josh Allen fan.

 

So it doesn't even occur to you to address the stuff you have to give up, because it just doesn't matter to you. How Josh is directly affected is all that you think about.

 

Point is, it matters to the team what you have to give up.

 

Massey-Thaler and all the other studies say the same thing about this. Simply, trading up and giving up major draft assets like extra ones and twos is a horrible idea unless you are trading up for a potential franchise QB. Trades like this produce overall poor results at a high rate. Every study says the same thing. Every single one.