Bills official offseason Cap moves thread.

[SCBills]

Rasul Douglas could just be talking to talk.. personal life, family, who knows.. but he had posted on X a lot about feeling like he was in flux and/or a weird spot, so reading the tea leaves, this could be contractually. 

[ngbills]

26 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

Anyone talking about a new deal for Josh?  He is way underpaid at this point. Mahomes gets his deal redone fairly often.....I expect something for Josh at some point.  

Mahomes had his rookie deal and his new deal. Just like Josh. 

[GunnerBill]

38 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

Anyone talking about a new deal for Josh?  He is way underpaid at this point. Mahomes gets his deal redone fairly often.....I expect something for Josh at some point.  

 

In AAV terms, sure. But in cash terms he is gonna get about $47m this year after the restructure. Next year he will get $49.5m after the next restructure. After that his contract will get re-done because it would be almost certain his cash number would start falling per year after that. 

Edited February 20 by GunnerBill

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

In AAV terms, sure. But in cash terms he is gonna get about $47m this year after the restructure. Next year he will get $49.5m after the next restructure. After that his contract will get re-done because it would be almost certain his cash number would start falling per year after that. 

Funny thing is Josh will get a substantial raise but his cap hits will go way down. This will likely happen after next year.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Funny thing is Josh will get a substantial raise but his cap hits will go way down. This will likely happen after next year.

 

I am not talking about cap hits though, players don't really care about cap hits. That is for GMs and fans to worry about. Players worry about cash. When Allen gets his new deal it will come with a hefty signing bonus which will give him an even bigger payday even though the Bills will account for it over multiple years (as many as possible) to spread it out and lower the hit. 

 

I think Josh will play 2024 and 2025 on the current deal. Summer 2025 is when I expect him to extend. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am not talking about cap hits though, players don't really care about cap hits. That is for GMs and fans to worry about. Players worry about cash. When Allen gets his new deal it will come with a hefty signing bonus which will give him an even bigger payday even though the Bills will account for it over multiple years (as many as possible) to spread it out and lower the hit. 

 

I think Josh will play 2024 and 2025 on the current deal. Summer 2025 is when I expect him to extend. 

I think he’ll be a year after Mahomes. They’re talking about doing Mahomes deal this offseason. So we’ll see.

[John from Riverside]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am not talking about cap hits though, players don't really care about cap hits. That is for GMs and fans to worry about. Players worry about cash. When Allen gets his new deal it will come with a hefty signing bonus which will give him an even bigger payday even though the Bills will account for it over multiple years (as many as possible) to spread it out and lower the hit. 

 

I think Josh will play 2024 and 2025 on the current deal. Summer 2025 is when I expect him to extend. 

I would think that if you want to win you would care about cap hits especially as a quarterback, unless you’re just a greedy SOB

 

The bills have really shown that they will spend money right up to the ability to do so, and Josh Allen needs help

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am not talking about cap hits though, players don't really care about cap hits. That is for GMs and fans to worry about. Players worry about cash. When Allen gets his new deal it will come with a hefty signing bonus which will give him an even bigger payday even though the Bills will account for it over multiple years (as many as possible) to spread it out and lower the hit. 

 

I think Josh will play 2024 and 2025 on the current deal. Summer 2025 is when I expect him to extend. 

 

Happy to see him all over my TV though... i don't think he's going to demand to be the highest paid QB with all of that ad money coming in. 

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

I would think that if you want to win you would care about cap hits especially as a quarterback, unless you’re just a greedy SOB

 

The bills have really shown that they will spend money right up to the ability to do so, and Josh Allen needs help

 

Yes, but you don't care about your specific cap number. You care that you are getting paid a good chunk of change every year. If you can do that in a way that helps manage the cap, great. But you don't really fixate on your cap number. That isn't what matters. 

[Matt_In_NH]

35 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

In AAV terms, sure. But in cash terms he is gonna get about $47m this year after the restructure. Next year he will get $49.5m after the next restructure. After that his contract will get re-done because it would be almost certain his cash number would start falling per year after that. 

Yeah, his agent will talk about AAV and he is correct

48 minutes ago, ngbills said:

Mahomes had his rookie deal and his new deal. Just like Josh. 

https://www.nfl.com/news/chiefs-qb-patrick-mahomes-agrees-to-terms-on-restructured-contract

[ngbills]

37 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/chiefs-qb-patrick-mahomes-agrees-to-terms-on-restructured-contract

That is a restructure, not a new deal. Allen did a restructure last year as well and will be doing it again this year. 

[ngbills]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am not talking about cap hits though, players don't really care about cap hits. That is for GMs and fans to worry about. Players worry about cash. When Allen gets his new deal it will come with a hefty signing bonus which will give him an even bigger payday even though the Bills will account for it over multiple years (as many as possible) to spread it out and lower the hit. 

 

I think Josh will play 2024 and 2025 on the current deal. Summer 2025 is when I expect him to extend. 

Mahomes has been paid $136M in 7 years. That is only $23M more than Allen at this point and one year longer. After year 7 Allen will be close to $150M and pass the cash Mahomes has received through 7 years. 

 

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, ngbills said:

Mahomes has been paid $136M in 7 years. That is only $23M more than Allen at this point and one year longer. After year 7 Allen will be close to $150M and pass the cash Mahomes has received through 7 years. 

 

 

Exactly this. Josh's AAV is now below market value, no doubt, but as of yet it hasn't hurt him in real terms in terms of pay. It won't really until after 2025. 

 

There is a chance though that if the Bills see Mahomes do a new deal they want to move quickly because if you wait too long after Mahomes the market moves again and suddenly in AAV terms Josh is #1. Which obviously tightens up other things.

52 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

Yeah, his agent will talk about AAV and he is correct

https://www.nfl.com/news/chiefs-qb-patrick-mahomes-agrees-to-terms-on-restructured-contract

 

That Mahomes re-do proves my point. It wasn't about AAV. It was about cash. 

[wolfpack78]

I'm expecting this year to be a mini 'reset' year, and Beane is going to have an eye on going all in for 2025.  That said, think he's going to play the comp pick game and let folks like Gabe, Floyd and AJE all depart while bargain hunting in free agency.  We can enter the 2025 offseason in good cap shape (see ya later Von, Tre and Knox), a ton of picks and a lot of game experience from the 2023 and 2024 draft classes.  I think they're going to want to give it all they can for 2025 as the marketing department is cold calling everyone trying to sell PSLs.

Edited February 20 by wolfpack78

[FilthyBeast]

Other teams have begun making cap related moves and it will be interesting to see what domino is the first to fall with the Bills especially if it's not the obvious one with Tre White.

 

 

[CNYfan]

I read that Micah's and Floyd's deals voided yesterday.  

 

Does that mean they are gone?    Or is that an imaginary date?

[Matt_In_NH]

1 hour ago, ngbills said:

That is a restructure, not a new deal. Allen did a restructure last year as well and will be doing it again this year. 

Allen's restructures are built in and just executed by the team, he may get some money sooner but the overall money is not changing.  That is not the same as with Mahomes.  

5 minutes ago, CNYfan said:

I read that Micah's and Floyd's deals voided yesterday.  

 

Does that mean they are gone?    Or is that an imaginary date?

 

It really does not change much, their contracts were up and they are free agents.  During FA, they can sign with any team, including the Bills.  I expect Hyde to retire and Floyd has said he wants money.

Edited February 20 by Matt_In_NH

[ngbills]

20 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

Allen's restructures are built in and just executed by the team, he may get some money sooner but the overall money is not changing.  That is not the same as with Mahomes.  

 

I dont think that is right unless I missed something. Mahomes signed a 10 year / $450M deal. All they did was move up a bunch of the money to 2023-2026 not give him a new deal. Its the same $450M. 

[noacls]

Don't understand why people want to get rid of Knox. Is he overpaid? Yes, but if you add years and lower AAV he is a above average all around TE. 

[GunnerBill]

16 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

Allen's restructures are built in and just executed by the team, he may get some money sooner but the overall money is not changing.  That is not the same as with Mahomes.  

 

 

 

Correct but it didn't change his AAV. It was moving money around within the life of the long contract. And the reason they did it was CASH. Mahomes wasn't saying "My AAV is down to 8th highest among QBs I want a new deal" he was saying "hang on guys you are not putting enough money in my pockets over the middle section of this deal you need to move some money up" which is what the Chiefs did. It is the opposite to the restructures with Josh which are about moving money back to create cap space. Mahomes was asking them to move money forward to improve his real terms cash position over the next 3 years. 

 

And that is why I don't see Josh agitating yet. Because his cash position is still pretty strong for the next two years. After that his cash position weakens and that is when the Bills likely need to re-visit that deal. 

[GunnerBill]

On 2/16/2024 at 12:13 PM, GunnerBill said:

 

 

Extensions:

Dion Dawkins - saving $6.5m (on the basis of a 2 year extension worth $37m - $18.5m AAV - added to the $10.3m base salary + roster bonuses he was due for this year so a total of $47.3m to spread over 3 years allowing you to lower the cap hit in year 1 - comparator contract Jake Matthews)

Rasul Douglas - saving $5m (on the basis of a 2 year extension worth $22m - $11m AAV - added to the $9m base salary + roster bonuses he was due for this year so a total of $31m to spread over 3 years allowing you to lower the cap hit in year 1 - comparator contract Darious Williams)

Taron Johnson - saving $6m (on the basis of a 4 year extension worth $50m - $12.5m AAV - added to the $7.6m base salary + roster bonuses he was due for this year so a total of $57.6m to spread over 5 years allowing you to lower the cap hit in year 1 - comparator contract Cam Sutton)

 

Total Saving: $17.5m 

 

 

Just watched Joe Marino on Locked on Bills and he basically gets to the same numbers. He saves a bit more on Douglas and a bit less on Johnson with his suggested structures but they balance out the same. These three extensions combined get you about $17-18m in space.

 

Edited February 23 by GunnerBill

[BuffaloRebound]

https://www.spotrac.com/news/whats-next-buffalo-bills-2199/

 

I wouldn’t deal Bates and there’s no way I’m paying Miller the $6.5 that’s due in March.  

Edited February 23 by BuffaloRebound

[ngbills]

5 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

https://www.spotrac.com/news/whats-next-buffalo-bills-2199/

 

I wouldn’t deal Bates and there’s no way I’m paying Miller the $6.5 that’s due in March.  

Hines and Harty seem like no brainers. Though I wont be shocked if nothing is done. 

[Roundybout]

 

minor note 

 

[Warriorspikes51]

11 minutes ago, Roundybout said:

 

minor note 

 

 

of course....right when he starts making a difference 

[BuffaloBillyG]

12 minutes ago, Roundybout said:

 

minor note 

 

I hope the Bears do with him what they did with Edmunds last year. Pay that big salary to get us a better comp pick.

 

I like AJE, have really enjoyed watching him progress and wish we could hang on to him, but if we can't that would be the next best outcome IMO.

[Warriorspikes51]

Ideally we can keep 1 of AJ or Floyd  otherwise Beane is going to forget about WR's and go crazy with defense the entire draft 

[BuffaloBillyG]

1 minute ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Ideally we can keep 1 of AJ or Floyd  otherwise Beane is going to forget about WR's and go crazy with defense the entire draft 

One thing to keep in mind, though. There are usually a good number of veteran pass rushers available right before training camp. Chances are if the Bills cut a bigger contract (Miller or White for example) they should be able to find someone like Floyd available after June 1st.  Floyd himself was signed June 5th.

[Warriorspikes51]

6 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

One thing to keep in mind, though. There are usually a good number of veteran pass rushers available right before training camp. Chances are if the Bills cut a bigger contract (Miller or White for example) they should be able to find someone like Floyd available after June 1st.  Floyd himself was signed June 5th.

Floyd still got good $ though 

[FireChans]

2024 cap released.

 

$255M

 

Sean McD already making his presence felt at the competition committee.

[BuffaloBillyG]

1 hour ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Floyd still got good $ though 

Yes he did. That's the idea. If you cut someone like Miller as a post June 1st cut you have the bucks to spend late in FA when guys like that are available. 

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

3 hours ago, BuffaloRebound said:

https://www.spotrac.com/news/whats-next-buffalo-bills-2199/

 

I wouldn’t deal Bates and there’s no way I’m paying Miller the $6.5 that’s due in March.  

Whoever did this is very much looking at numbers and not the team.

 

Why would we deal Bates when we could paycut or release Morse who is older? Why would you restructure anything on Miller when his salary is ignored and guarantees are voided if suspended? Why on earth would we add 3 void years onto poyer when he's a legit cut candidate?

[GASabresIUFan]

LOL, the Bills aren't cutting Miller.  His cap hit is 23.8 million, but his dead cap is 32.5.  Why would anyone essentially pay more not to have someone play?

 

Even if you do the June 1 cut, his cap hit is 17 million and you adding a cap hit to 2025.  Miller will be a Bill in 2024.  

 

Cutting him in 2025 makes much more sense.  His dead cap would be down to 15.4 vs a roster cap hit of 23.9.  However, a June 1 cut cap cost would be down to 6.4.  This would be much more feasible.  

 

Below are Spotrac's recommendations for the Bills

 

https://www.spotrac.com/news/whats-next-buffalo-bills-2199/

 

Cap casualties - White, Bates, Harty, Hines, and Hamlin.  IMHO Harty and Hines need to go.  Cutting Hamlin saves nothing, other than freeing a roster spot for his replacement.  White is going to be restructured vs cut.  If they are going to move on from Bates, it will be through trade, but a cap casualty

 

Cap conversions - Allen (obviously), Knox (again likely), Poyer and Miller.  They suggest Poyer conversation with 4 void years to save 2.8 mill and moving $8 mill of Miller's salary to a bonus.  This will limit the cap vs dead cap in 2025, but opens money for this season.  I doubt the Bills do this, especially if they want to move on in 2025.

 

Extensions - Dawkins and T Johnson (both need to get done).  Also Douglas (everyone agree here as well).

 

Others - Diggs - Cap conversion.  I think the increased cap makes this move less likely.  Milano - conversion.  I think this is an interesting question.  It doesn't yield much, but makes it harder to move on from his deal in 2025 if he has another injury-plagued season.  Ed Oliver - Contract extension.  This looks more likely in 2025.

 

 

[BuffaloRebound]

25 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

LOL, the Bills aren't cutting Miller.  His cap hit is 23.8 million, but his dead cap is 32.5.  Why would anyone essentially pay more not to have someone play?

 

Even if you do the June 1 cut, his cap hit is 17 million and you adding a cap hit to 2025.  Miller will be a Bill in 2024.  

 

Cutting him in 2025 makes much more sense.  His dead cap would be down to 15.4 vs a roster cap hit of 23.9.  However, a June 1 cut cap cost would be down to 6.4.  This would be much more feasible.  

 

Below are Spotrac's recommendations for the Bills

 

https://www.spotrac.com/news/whats-next-buffalo-bills-2199/

 

Cap casualties - White, Bates, Harty, Hines, and Hamlin.  IMHO Harty and Hines need to go.  Cutting Hamlin saves nothing, other than freeing a roster spot for his replacement.  White is going to be restructured vs cut.  If they are going to move on from Bates, it will be through trade, but a cap casualty

 

Cap conversions - Allen (obviously), Knox (again likely), Poyer and Miller.  They suggest Poyer conversation with 4 void years to save 2.8 mill and moving $8 mill of Miller's salary to a bonus.  This will limit the cap vs dead cap in 2025, but opens money for this season.  I doubt the Bills do this, especially if they want to move on in 2025.

 

Extensions - Dawkins and T Johnson (both need to get done).  Also Douglas (everyone agree here as well).

 

Others - Diggs - Cap conversion.  I think the increased cap makes this move less likely.  Milano - conversion.  I think this is an interesting question.  It doesn't yield much, but makes it harder to move on from his deal in 2025 if he has another injury-plagued season.  Ed Oliver - Contract extension.  This looks more likely in 2025.

 

 

So you’re good paying another $6.5m to Miller in a month when he couldn’t beat out Kingsley Jonathan for snaps?  Take the gift of the extra $13m in cap this year and 13.5% that it’s most likely increasing every year after and be done with Miller. Same with Tre.  Take the medicine and move on.  

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

$255.4 million cap should reduce some of the pain at one bills drive.  It definitely changes the combination of options that Beane will need to use to get cap compliant.  For me, the Miller deal seems like the boat anchor dragging the entire ship down.  We've seen bad contract decisions force teams around the league to compound the damage by getting rid of important contributors on their teams or digging the cap hole deeper.  I'm hoping Beane can avoid this.

[jkeerie]

1 hour ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said:

$255.4 million cap should reduce some of the pain at one bills drive.  It definitely changes the combination of options that Beane will need to use to get cap compliant.  For me, the Miller deal seems like the boat anchor dragging the entire ship down.  We've seen bad contract decisions force teams around the league to compound the damage by getting rid of important contributors on their teams or digging the cap hole deeper.  I'm hoping Beane can avoid this.

Hopefully Beane learned through this year's playoffs that the Bills need to provide Josh with more weapons to put more points on the board.  Signing high priced vets to make a "difference" especially older vets...doesn't provide the difference you need to win.  

[Warriorspikes51]

15 minutes ago, jkeerie said:

Hopefully Beane learned through this year's playoffs that the Bills need to provide Josh with more weapons to put more points on the board.  Signing high priced vets to make a "difference" especially older vets...doesn't provide the difference you need to win.  

We didn’t sign any high priced vets last year?  Certainly not on offense.

 

Beane’s goal (if Diggs stays) should be Mike Evans / Michael Pittman Jr / Trade 

 

if you miss on those, at least get Curtis Samuel or Darnell Mooney who are instant upgrades from Sherfield as a floor with potential to be very impactful.

 

AND regardless you get a WR in Round 1 + another in Round 2-4

Edited February 23 by Warriorspikes51

[jkeerie]

1 hour ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

We didn’t sign any high priced vets last year?  Certainly not on offense.

 

Beane’s goal (if Diggs stays) should be Mike Evans / Michael Pittman Jr / Trade 

 

if you miss on those, at least get Curtis Samuel or Darnell Mooney who are instant upgrades from Sherfield as a floor with potential to be very impactful.

 

AND regardless you get a WR in Round 1 + another in Round 2-4

We signed a high priced vet in Miller...at a contract that ties the team's hands.  Yes it looked good for a while.  Then he got injured.  We put more eggs in that basket than we should have.   Sign a couple lower priced vets...but build through the draft.  

[SoonerBillsFan]

Now that the cap # is officially set, we should start to see Beane start making moves.

[TheyCallMeAndy]

On 2/23/2024 at 12:20 PM, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

of course....right when he starts making a difference 

It does annoy me to no end that we drafted/developed him and now he’s gone. Even if he wanted to come back, he’s the backup behind Von Miller. 
 

EDIT: Likely gone, these stories are false more than they are true. 

Edited February 24 by TheyCallMeAndy