Steelers @ Bills. Monday, January 15th at 4:30pm.

[boyst]

1 hour ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

the only team we lost to in the playoffs was the eagles and we should have won that one.

 

any team we played in the playoffs we beat.

[Gregg]

9 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:

The weather has turned this game into a literal coin flip.  

 

Incredible that we are still dealing with this in 2024, and Pegula has committed to relying on mother nature for the rest of his ownership with not footing the bill for a roof on new stadium.

 

Bills should have got a dome 20 years ago.

 

Both teams have to play in it so no excuses. The Bills better be ready to "man up" for a 3-hour fist fight type of game. The Steelers with Tomlin bring the physical style of play. Their entire division does as well.

Edited January 11 by Gregg

[njbuff]

5 minutes ago, boyst said:

the only team we lost to in the playoffs was the eagles and we should have won that one.

 

any team we played in the playoffs we beat.

5-1 is pretty darn good against playoff teams.

 

Time to make 9-1, starting with the Squeelers.

 

[boyst]

6 minutes ago, Gregg said:

 

Both teams have to play in it so no excuses. The Bills better be ready to "man up" for a 3-hour fist fight type of game. The Steelers with Tomlin bring the physical style of play. Their entire division does as well.

This is why we need to hope KC wins.

 

The road to the playoffs could have to go through the AFCN. Steelers, Cleveland, Baltimore makes it seems like a Tysons punch out gauntlet. 

 

We need to let the browns and Ravens play each other to beat each other up.

 

We don't need our players beaten. But we match up well to the Browns and could beat them. And if we play our best football we can beat the Ravens, too.

[Starr Almighty]

1 hour ago, Low Positive said:

The only thing that anybody watching that cares about is Orchard Park, and is the one town that channel 4 leaves off of their map.

24° Wind Moderate 24 MPH SW 70% Chance of snow as of right now 

[fergie's ire]

2 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

Just FYI, that script has seem to flip (for the Steelers) over the past three games.

 

Last week: 155 rushing yards

Week before: 202 rushing yards

Week before that: 113 rushing yards

 

They seem to have found something in their rushing game over the past three weeks that they didn’t have most of the season.

 

Yeah, and not coincidentally, they have looked like a much better team those last three weeks.  They looked like one of the worst teams in the league the three weeks before that (crushed by the Colts, beaten by Patriots and Cardinals).  They're a really weird team in a weird NFL year.

[MasterStrategist]

2 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

Just FYI, that script has seem to flip (for the Steelers) over the past three games.

 

Last week: 155 rushing yards

Week before: 202 rushing yards

Week before that: 113 rushing yards

 

They seem to have found something in their rushing game over the past three weeks that they didn’t have most of the season.

 

Not discrediting the Steelers, but...

 

1. Last week: Baltimore mostly backups

2. 2 weeks ago: Hawks have been horrible against the run down the stretch.  200+ 2x and 160 in their last 3

3. 3 weeks ago: 30 for 113 against Cincy is OK.  Nothing special, ypc wise and they hit some splash plays early

 

But to your point and what alot of folks saying, the key is shutting down their run game.  I just wouldn't say they "found" anything.  They've been solid most of the year, with Najee and Warren.  Just recently Rudolph has hit some key passes, and not turned it over.

 

Trenches and turnover margin likely will be the key, as usual:

1. Our OL: I'd say "even", with Watt out.

2. Our DL: biggest matchup/most pivotal, and IMO we have slightly better talent.  We need to win here 

3. Turnover margin: Steelers have best in NFL, play smart/opportunistic on defense.  Watt missing is huge in pass rush/turnovers.  Josh just needs to play smart.  Good comes with the bad, but he just can't have multiple turnovers

 

I'd say we win by 6-8, if above holds true.  10+ if we win the turnover margin

[hellofellowbillsfans]

the weather really makes me nervous with the brand of football the steelers play

[CaptnCoke11]

4 minutes ago, hellofellowbillsfans said:

the weather really makes me nervous with the brand of football the steelers play

It will make them one dimensional and if we can’t stop it then we deserve to lose 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

So as soon as I said this is normal Buffalo weather in mid January it seems Mother Nature took that as a challenge. The weather report keeps getting worse every time I look at it.

 

 

[elroy16]

1 hour ago, Back2Buff said:

The weather has turned this game into a literal coin flip.  

 

Incredible that we are still dealing with this in 2024, and Pegula has committed to relying on mother nature for the rest of his ownership with not footing the bill for a roof on new stadium.

 

Bills should have got a dome 20 years ago.

 

 

I'm curious to see if the design of the new stadium does in fact keep the wind down inside of the stadium. Cold and some precipitation is one thing, but the insane wind is what really mucks up these games.

[PBF81]

2 hours ago, Low Positive said:

There seems to be a narrative building around here that Pittsbugh is a run-first team and has a better rushing attack than the Bills. Let's take a look at the numbers, shall we?

 

2023 Stats

 

STEELERS: 2010 RUSHING YARDS ON 487 ATTEMPTS

BILLS: 2212 RUSHING YARDS ON 512 ATTEMPTS

 

Your 2023 Buffalo Bills have the 5th most rushing attempts in the NFL. The Bills also rank 8th in YPC. In other words, the Bills have been a better rushing team than the Steelers this year. I know that doesn't fit historical reputations or the popular narrative, but those are the facts. 

 

Speaking for only myself, that's not how I'm looking at it.  I'm looking at it from the angle that the Steelers are better suited to run in siht weather.  

 

For starters, remove Allen's rushing yards from those.  Not sure we need to turn him into a RB in that slop either.  But let's compare the primary ball carriers for both teams.  

 

Cook, who has 1,122 rushing yards and 2 rushing TDs.  

 

Najee Harris, who has 1,035 and 8 rushing TDs. 

Jaylen Warren, who has 784 yards and 4 rushing TDs, in 0 starts.  

 

If there's a false narrative, it's that for some strange reason Cook's rushing game is flourishing under Brady.  It isn't.  Looking at merely the other six games besides that career-best outlier of the Dallas game, anomalous to be sure, Cook's posted the following rushing games: 

 

17 for 73

16 for 43 

10 for 58 

20 for 70 

16 for 48

13 for 36 

 

That's a combined 92 for 328, and 3.6 YPC.  Also, 0 rushing TDs.  So yeah, if Allen is going to contribute to all of the goal-line carries and TDs, sure, our rushing game may be better.  Not sure that's where we need to have Allen however, and the fact that the team is still seemingly option-less at the goal line should be disturbing after seven seasons like that.  

 

Furthermore, look at Cook's last few games.  He's averaged 3.1 YPC.  His next three best rushing games besides the Dallas game were all under Dorsey, not Brady.  Just sayin' there, for purposes of squelching a false narrative.  

 

7 of our rushing TDs under Brady not including that Dallas game, were by Allen.  I thought we were trying to protect Allen more.  Scrambling and running in the open field is a whole lot different than running into a pile on a regular basis, but more disturbing is that the team cannot seem to find a way to do it w/o rushing Allen.  

 

Either way, that trend is not a positive one, neither is our offensive scoring trend of fewer than 20 PPG over the past three games, not exactly against the league's elite defenses either.  Yeah yeah, dropped passes, etc., we get it, but we've been crying about those for years.  In fact, it'll be quite interesting how the team plays without Davis if he can't go.  I'm curious what the lamenting will be about then.  

 

Meanwhile, Harris posted his two best and very good games, and three of his top-five on the season, in the past two and three weeks respectively with Rudolph at QB.  3 rushing TDs in the last two games and as a team, their 2nd and 3rd best rushing games on the season the last two games.  

 

So what this seemingly comes down to is Allen running the ball for us near the goal line, Cook doing it in the open field where he's not been good except for one game under Brady, and two RBs that are hot as a tandem and are legitimate 3-down backs fully capable and if not even suited to playing the kind of football that will require less stable footing in the open field.  I hope we gear up right, as I recall, in last season's playoffs I think it was, the team stated that they didn't outfit the players with the proper cleats, ... for a home game.  

 

So we'll see.  But if this comes down to an inability to throw the ball, much as that New England game a number of years ago where they threw what, two, three passes or something like that all game, it's a stretch to say that conditions like that favor us.  That's also not to say that you have to avoid passing, but in high winds the likelihood of TOs increases significantly.  

 

We'll see.  But this love for Brady in defense of McD is blurring a lot of peoples' objectivity.  In fact, we're doing the exact opposite that we said we should be doing to keep Allen healthy, not only for the season, but for many seasons.  He already has a shoulder injury.  Doing all of the goal-line rushing is insanity over the long haul.  Open field, yes, let him run and scramble, but dang if we, after six seasons, can't find a decent goal line RB.  

 

 

[Einstein]

Yeah this is going to be a horrible weather game. High winds, extremely cold, snow, yuck.

 

 

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

I think that an extremely windy game still limits the Steelers more than it does the Bills.

For one thing, Josh Allen's passes should theoretically cut through the wind much better than Mason Rudolph's, so the opportunity to pass the ball effectively seems greater for Buffalo than Pittsburgh.

Additionally, Josh's legs can and should be a very effective weapon on days like Sunday. When it's bitter cold and the wind is whipping, no one wants to tackle a 6'5" 240 lb freight train running at them.

If the weather on Sunday and Pittsburgh's predilections want to make this an old school, smash 'em up slopfest, then the Bills need to be ready. Make Josh's legs the primary mode of offense. Run it right at them. Be physical, be proud, and set the tone.

All of that said...I'm terrified of this game. I don't know how anyone could've watched the recent Pats and Chargers games and not conclude that this is the exact same type of thing, where the Bills could potentially play down to the level of their opposition. Add in the way that bad weather levels a playing field, and the way that Pittsburgh's D has given Allen fits at times in his career and, well....I'm not exactly predicting a Bills blowout.

I mean, the mind and snow are variables that I don't like, but even if we are breaking it down I still like our chances if it's a messy game. Josh has time this week to get used to the wind because it's happening locally (I'm not there, just relying on reports). We also know Brady is not afraid to get into Jumbo packages to run, and I do think we can run on them even in a slog.

[UKBillFan]

21 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

Not discrediting the Steelers, but...

 

1. Last week: Baltimore mostly backups

2. 2 weeks ago: Hawks have been horrible against the run down the stretch.  200+ 2x and 160 in their last 3

3. 3 weeks ago: 30 for 113 against Cincy is OK.  Nothing special, ypc wise and they hit some splash plays early

 

But to your point and what alot of folks saying, the key is shutting down their run game.  I just wouldn't say they "found" anything.  They've been solid most of the year, with Najee and Warren.  Just recently Rudolph has hit some key passes, and not turned it over.

 

Trenches and turnover margin likely will be the key, as usual:

1. Our OL: I'd say "even", with Watt out.

2. Our DL: biggest matchup/most pivotal, and IMO we have slightly better talent.  We need to win here 

3. Turnover margin: Steelers have best in NFL, play smart/opportunistic on defense.  Watt missing is huge in pass rush/turnovers.  Josh just needs to play smart.  Good comes with the bad, but he just can't have multiple turnovers

 

I'd say we win by 6-8, if above holds true.  10+ if we win the turnover margin

If the Bills run the same game plan, and Josh the same approach, as against the Cowboys, then they should win.

[mannc]

9 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Speaking for only myself, that's not how I'm looking at it.  I'm looking at it from the angle that the Steelers are better suited to run in siht weather.  

 

For starters, remove Allen's rushing yards from those.  Not sure we need to turn him into a RB in that slop either.  But let's compare the primary ball carriers for both teams.  

 

Cook, who has 1,122 rushing yards and 2 rushing TDs.  

 

Najee Harris, who has 1,035 and 8 rushing TDs. 

Jaylen Warren, who has 784 yards and 4 rushing TDs, in 0 starts.  

 

If there's a false narrative, it's that for some strange reason Cook's rushing game is flourishing under Brady.  It isn't.  Looking at merely the other six games besides that career-best outlier of the Dallas game, anomalous to be sure, Cook's posted the following rushing games: 

 

17 for 73

16 for 43 

10 for 58 

20 for 70 

16 for 48

13 for 36 

 

That's a combined 92 for 328, and 3.6 YPC.  Also, 0 rushing TDs.  So yeah, if Allen is going to contribute to all of the goal-line carries and TDs, sure, our rushing game may be better.  Not sure that's where we need to have Allen however, and the fact that the team is still seemingly option-less at the goal line should be disturbing after seven seasons like that.  

 

Furthermore, look at Cook's last few games.  He's averaged 3.1 YPC.  His next three best rushing games besides the Dallas game were all under Dorsey, not Brady.  Just sayin' there, for purposes of squelching a false narrative.  

 

7 of our rushing TDs under Brady not including that Dallas game, were by Allen.  I thought we were trying to protect Allen more.  Scrambling and running in the open field is a whole lot different than running into a pile on a regular basis, but more disturbing is that the team cannot seem to find a way to do it w/o rushing Allen.  

 

Either way, that trend is not a positive one, neither is our offensive scoring trend of fewer than 20 PPG over the past three games, not exactly against the league's elite defenses either.  Yeah yeah, dropped passes, etc., we get it, but we've been crying about those for years.  In fact, it'll be quite interesting how the team plays without Davis if he can't go.  I'm curious what the lamenting will be about then.  

 

Meanwhile, Harris posted his two best and very good games, and three of his top-five on the season, in the past two and three weeks respectively with Rudolph at QB.  3 rushing TDs in the last two games and as a team, their 2nd and 3rd best rushing games on the season the last two games.  

 

So what this seemingly comes down to is Allen running the ball for us near the goal line, Cook doing it in the open field where he's not been good except for one game under Brady, and two RBs that are hot as a tandem and are legitimate 3-down backs fully capable and if not even suited to playing the kind of football that will require less stable footing in the open field.  I hope we gear up right, as I recall, in last season's playoffs I think it was, the team stated that they didn't outfit the players with the proper cleats, ... for a home game.  

 

So we'll see.  But if this comes down to an inability to throw the ball, much as that New England game a number of years ago where they threw what, two, three passes or something like that all game, it's a stretch to say that conditions like that favor us.  That's also not to say that you have to avoid passing, but in high winds the likelihood of TOs increases significantly.  

 

We'll see.  But this love for Brady in defense of McD is blurring a lot of peoples' objectivity.  In fact, we're doing the exact opposite that we said we should be doing to keep Allen healthy, not only for the season, but for many seasons.  He already has a shoulder injury.  Doing all of the goal-line rushing is insanity over the long haul.  Open field, yes, let him run and scramble, but dang if we, after six seasons, can't find a decent goal line RB.  

 

 

I don't know about you, but the idea of leaning heavily on James Cook in a snowy, windy, slippery game like this makes me very uncomfortable.  I'd probably start Fournette... 

[Logic]

3 minutes ago, mannc said:

I don't know about you, but the idea of leaning heavily on James Cook in a snowy, windy, slippery game like this makes me very uncomfortable.  I'd probably start Fournette... 

Yep.

Said this earlier in this thread, but...

Fournette has fumbled four times in his entire career. One fumble per 286 carries.

 

Cook has fumbled four times THIS SEASON. One fumble per 59 carries.

Add to that the physical nature of Fournette's game and the fact that defenders won't wanna tackle a guy like that on a 20 degree day, and Fournette oughta be getting half of the carries at least, IMO.

[Einstein]

"whiteout conditions"
 

 

[Warcodered]

8 minutes ago, mannc said:

I don't know about you, but the idea of leaning heavily on James Cook in a snowy, windy, slippery game like this makes me very uncomfortable.  I'd probably start Fournette... 

I don't know he seems to do best when the ball is wet for some reason.

[Back2Buff]

3 minutes ago, Einstein said:

"whiteout conditions"
 

 

 

I wonder at what point the NFL steps in to move the game to Monday?  You just cant have people out in a blizzard.  We all seen what happened on Christmas.