Outlook on McDermott if we turn it around

[Einstein]

20 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Yeah, my bad, for some odd reason I thought that they were still determining games by the number of points scored.  I hadn't realized that they changed that.  

 

Hence my having said Scoring D.  

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/team/_/view/defense/table/passing/sort/totalPointsPerGame/dir/asc

 

 

It’s a common mistake.

 

Using points per game as the sole determination for who has the best defense has several faults. 

 

1) Lack of Context: This metric doesn't account for the quality of the offenses faced. A defense might have low points allowed because they played weaker offenses, not necessarily because they are a strong defense.

 

2) The Offense: A defense will allow more points in games if their offense can’t sustain drives, which increases the time the defense is on the field.

 

3) Turnovers: If a team has a terrible offense (like the Jets), and turns the ball over a lot in their own territory, that sets the defense up to defend fields where the opponents offense is already in scoring range. What does that result in? More points allowed.

 

[PBF81]

4 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

It’s a common mistake.

 

Using points per game as the sole determination for who has the best defense has several faults. 

 

1) Lack of Context: This metric doesn't account for the quality of the offenses faced. A defense might have low points allowed because they played weaker offenses, not necessarily because they are a strong defense.

 

2) The Offense: A defense will allow more points in games if their offense can’t sustain drives, which increases the time the defense is on the field.

 

3) Turnovers: If a team has a terrible offense (like the Jets), and turns the ball over a lot in their own territory, that sets the defense up to defend fields where the opponents offense is already in scoring range. What does that result in? More points allowed.

 

 

I understand all that.  There's no single metric that encompasses exactly how good a D is.  

 

Having said what you said, the converse is also true.  Which is why we should not use this game as a significant indicator as to future performance.  i.e., vs. teams like the Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys, or even @Miami the second time.  

 

We'll have another edge against the Eagles on Sunday, as they're playing out west tonight.  

 

 

[Einstein]

7 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

I understand all that.  There's no single metric that encompasses exactly how good a D is.  

 

That’s actually what the PFF metric aims to do.

And it has the Jets #1.

 

Which matches my eye test.

[BuffaloRebound]

McDermott gotta be better in end of game situations to get over the hump.  Have to think at least 3 or 4 of remaining 6 games will come down the last possession.  

[PBF81]

3 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

That’s actually what the PFF metric aims to do.

And it has the Jets #1.

 

Which matches my eye test.

 

Yes, I understand that.  

 

Thre's still no way to do it despite the try. 

 

As you said, having the Jets' D on the field for nearly 40 minutes takes a toll.  The eye test even said so yesterday.  

 

There's not one team on our remaining schedule against which we can expect that luxury.  

 

 

[Chaos]

43 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

That’s actually what the PFF metric aims to do.

And it has the Jets #1.

 

Which matches my eye test.

I agree with the PFF metrics. However having the #1 defense, according to pff play by play analysis, is rather meaningless if your offense is turning the ball over four times giving the opponent good field position.  

 

Edited November 21, 2023 by Chaos

[Einstein]

24 minutes ago, Chaos said:

I agree with the PFF metrics. However having the #1 defense, according to pff play by play analysis, is rather meaningless if your offense is turning the ball over four times giving the opponent good field position.  

 

 

Yeah the Jets issue is obviously that awful offense.

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

 

That’s actually what the PFF metric aims to do.

And it has the Jets #1.

 

Which matches my eye test.

That’s why I look at averages per drive. Accounts for short fields mostly, and smooths out the points allowed off TO’s.

 

coincidentally, Jets are top 4 in points allowed per drive and yards allowed per drive. With an offense dead last in time per drive. 
 

Jets D is pretty close to elite if not the best in the NFL.

[Einstein]

7 minutes ago, FireChans said:

That’s why I look at averages per drive. Accounts for short fields mostly, and smooths out the points allowed off TO’s.

 

coincidentally, Jets are top 4 in points allowed per drive and yards allowed per drive. With an offense dead last in time per drive. 
 

Jets D is pretty close to elite if not the best in the NFL.

 

Yep.

[Big Blitz]

My take is McD needs to be replaced with an OC as HC.  Nothing is going to change my mind unless he makes the playoffs.  I couldn’t fire him then considering the injuries on D.  But I don’t expect that.  The losses this year as I watch the AFC disintegrate are just infuriating now.  
 

I don’t need to see this defense at home dominate the Mike Whites and Skyler Thompson Davis Mills Zach Wilson Kenny Picketts of the world anymore.  I don’t care. 

 

But my belief is if the offense gets “fixed” the McD-Brady-NewDC leads the clubhouse for likely coaching setup in 2024.  
 

I won’t hate it.  If they believe Brady is on to something.  But I don’t trust this staff anymore.  The Diggs drama should have been and probably is the biggest red flag.  
 

And if successful we’ll be looking for a new OC in 2025.  Lot more pressure to win and stay healthy next season.  I’d like a new voice to lead it. 

 

 

Edited November 21, 2023 by Big Blitz

[MrEpsYtown]

I think he needs to turn this around and get to the AFC championship to keep his job. To dig all the way out of the hole and fail in the playoffs makes it a no in my opinion. 

[GerstAusGosheim]

Remember when the O only scored 10 points in the playoffs against Cincinnati – yet, everyone blamed Leslie?

 

If this team continues to look significantly better under Brady, then one could argue Sean cost us a chance at the last two Super Bowls. 

 

 

 

 

 

[FilthyBeast]

McD can go from McDummy to McGenius if he finds a way to split these next 2 games, or even wins both.

 

But obviously have my doubts that's going to happen and better chance this team reverts back to what we've seen all year especially on the road where they've been dreadful for the most part minus the WFT game (and offense still wasn't great in that one either).

[T master]

I unlike many others here like the job McD has done since being here ! He has turned this team from a perennial loser to a perennial winner seems to always be in the hunt . Because of that he has a also helped to secure a brand new state of the art stadium for WNY & the Bills .

 

If you look at any winning HC's it takes a lot almost perfection to get to the big game & win many really good teams stumble but as they say you have to be in it to win it & if your not in the play offs constantly you will never have a chance at the prize ! 

 

This season has been a tough one in a lot of different ways for the coaching staff to over come these certain situations they have been faced with but i have faith again unlike others here that McD will get ur done !! 

 

GO BILLS !! 

[PBF81]

On 11/20/2023 at 12:38 AM, AuntieEm said:

Not even the most anti McDermott fan will call for his head if the Bills turn around their past shortcoming seasons and win the SB.  They still may not like him as the coach but the results would warrant not messing with what works.  And winning  the SB would work for all Bills fans I'm sure.

 

If McD wins the Super Bowl, I'll go personally wash his f'n car!  

 

 

[jester43]

if sean mctroops was capable ofwinning a super bowl it would have happened already.  but no, i never want them to lose.

[chongli]

12 hours ago, FilthyBeast said:

McD can go from McDummy to McGenius if he finds a way to split these next 2 games, or even wins both.

 

But obviously have my doubts that's going to happen and better chance this team reverts back to what we've seen all year especially on the road where they've been dreadful for the most part minus the WFT game (and offense still wasn't great in that one either).

 

Strange, you also said yesterday you have a feeling the Bills will beat Philadelphia:

 

[You're also following 666 people on twitter with the "Beast" in your name. Hmmm...probably just coincidence.]

 

Edited November 22, 2023 by chongli

[FilthyBeast]

11 hours ago, chongli said:

 

Strange, you also said yesterday you have a feeling the Bills will beat Philadelphia:

 

[You're also following 666 people on twitter with the "Beast" in your name. Hmmm...probably just coincidence.]

 

 

I'm still leaning this way even though the Bills road record this year has been horrendous but sometimes weird things happen in this league and Eagles are going to be very overconfident heading into this game. Key will be jumping on them early I think which is also going to be against the norm for this Bills team and offense this year.

 

Also I never noticed the follower thing but I don't like the 666 number so will have to start following some other people....

[The Red King]

No.  I thought Dorsey and McD were problems.  It doesn't have to be one or the other.  Firing Dorsey solved one problem and yielded immediate results.  I still think McD flounders with late-game decisions, which remains concerning.

[BullBuchanan]

On 11/19/2023 at 11:17 PM, Mikie2times said:

The better we perform in the short term, the more likely we will maintain the status quo in the long term. I don't see any way that isn't the case. It was already a long shot that we would part ways with McDermott after this year. It was going to take an implosion on the trajectory of what we had seen prior to Dorsey being canned. If they turn it around and threaten the playoffs it's not going to happen. 

 

Do some of you feel strongly enough about McDermott to actual want this thing to implode for the greater good? Do some of you feel if we can somehow get back on track to make the playoffs that it would alter your view on him as the coach next year? Curious what the outlook is on this. 

McD making the playoffs will have zero impact on my opinion of him. We already know that he can make the playoffs, and we also know that he struggles once he gets there. The latter is the part that concerns me. What happens from September-January is immaterial because I expect the Bills to make the playoffs every year. That's table stakes. Can he win a Super Bowl? I previously said it was only possible if Mahomes, Burrow and Hurts went down. Still 2 to go.

[GerstAusGosheim]

On 11/20/2023 at 11:03 AM, Success said:

Not sure if anyone has noticed - but McDermott calls a pretty good defense.  

 

 

Leslie called a very good defense. Sean needs to do better than that to justify the move and that hasn't happened yet.

 

Letting Mac Jones march 75 yards for a game winning TD comes to mind. Zero blitz x2. 12 men. That's not good coaching no matter how you look at it.

 

 

[FireChans]

5 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

McD making the playoffs will have zero impact on my opinion of him. We already know that he can make the playoffs, and we also know that he struggles once he gets there. The latter is the part that concerns me. What happens from September-January is immaterial because I expect the Bills to make the playoffs every year. That's table stakes. Can he win a Super Bowl? I previously said it was only possible if Mahomes, Burrow and Hurts went down. Still 2 to go.

Can I ask a question?

 

what separates a coach like Harbaugh from a coach like McD? Besides winning a Super Bowl a decade ago (and never sniffing another one).

[BullBuchanan]

12 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Can I ask a question?

 

what separates a coach like Harbaugh from a coach like McD? Besides winning a Super Bowl a decade ago (and never sniffing another one).

What separates them between the most important achievement of their career? Probably the belief that Harbaugh will get his second before McD gets his first.

He's not exactly my #1 coach or anything, but he's definitely a step above McDermott on gameday. Harbaugh has also had to fight uphill with lackluster offensive units most of his career. MCDermott on the other hand has had tons of offensive talent, but just squandered it.

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, BullBuchanan said:

What separates them between the most important achievement of their career? Probably the belief that Harbaugh will get his second before McD gets his first.

He's not exactly my #1 coach or anything, but he's definitely a step above McDermott on gameday. Harbaugh has also had to fight uphill with lackluster offensive units most of his career. MCDermott on the other hand has had tons of offensive talent, but just squandered it.

Why do you think Harbaugh will get his second first? Because he won 1 a decade ago?

 

I ask because generally, Harbaugh is considered a good coach. He has had his fair share of down seasons and is given a lot of grace for one magical year a decade ago.

Since that year, he has made the playoffs 5/10 seasons. He has 2 playoff wins to 5 playoff losses. He had Joe Flacco, who was a franchise QB if not an elite one. He has Lamar Jackson now, a former MVP who is at the very least considered very talented in todays league.  And despite all of that, he has had MULTIPLE rough YEARS. Missed the postseason 4/5 seasons after the SB win. Missed the postseason 2 years ago.  Has one playoff win since 2015. 
 

I guess my question is, do you think Haurbaugh should’ve been fired at any point between now and 2012? Or do you think that he basically gets the job for life because of that Super Bowl win and outside of an egregious basement dwelling stretch, he’s good enough to keep around? 

[BullBuchanan]

28 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Why do you think Harbaugh will get his second first? Because he won 1 a decade ago?

 

I ask because generally, Harbaugh is considered a good coach. He has had his fair share of down seasons and is given a lot of grace for one magical year a decade ago.

Since that year, he has made the playoffs 5/10 seasons. He has 2 playoff wins to 5 playoff losses. He had Joe Flacco, who was a franchise QB if not an elite one. He has Lamar Jackson now, a former MVP who is at the very least considered very talented in todays league.  And despite all of that, he has had MULTIPLE rough YEARS. Missed the postseason 4/5 seasons after the SB win. Missed the postseason 2 years ago.  Has one playoff win since 2015. 
 

I guess my question is, do you think Haurbaugh should’ve been fired at any point between now and 2012? Or do you think that he basically gets the job for life because of that Super Bowl win and outside of an egregious basement dwelling stretch, he’s good enough to keep around? 

I don't think you remember who Joe Flacco was. He was elite for a half of one year, which is when he won the Super Bowl. After starting out poorly, we went on a tear to end the season and was the hottest player of the playoffs. He had one other good year in 2016 but otherwise was never near that level again. He had a very Matt Shaub-esque career, imo.

As for the current state of things, the ravens are playing well and appear to be the best team in football right now. You could have made a case for firing Harbaugh during the Flacco slump years, but since Lamar got there he has a COTY award and 4 out of 5 years has a playoff appearance (soon to be 5/6), despite having a QB who's missed roughly a a quarter of each played season due to injury.

Winning a Super Bowl gets you a lot of rope, but it doesn't mean you can't hang yourself with it. Again, I don't think Harbaugh is a the top of top coaches, but like Tomlin I think he's markedly better than McDermott. I'll never prefer a Defensive coach, unless your name is Bill Belichick, in an offensive league though. Even then, maybe his time has come too.

Edited November 22, 2023 by BullBuchanan

[billsfan89]

Let’s say this team wins 10 games and wins a playoff game but gets bounced in the divisional round. That’s a pretty decent season for a team that was 5-5 on the surface but the out look to me doesn’t change drastically. It’s no different than if the team goes 9-8 and misses the playoffs.

 

McD comes back for 2024 and gets another crack but while I wouldn’t say his seat is hot just yet it certainly is warming up. If in 2024 there is similar playoff struggles I think then the seat is red hot in 2025 and it’s possibly time to move on if there is another year of missing a deep playoff run.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Opinion doesn't change unless he makes it to the SuperBowl. I have never had faith in the guy that played for a tie in OT when they needed a win and the guy that thought Peterman could play in the NFL. 

 

Outcome doesn't change no matter what. He will be the coach in 2024. 

[FireChans]

3 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

I don't think you remember who Joe Flacco was. He was elite for a half of one year, which is when he won the Super Bowl. After starting out poorly, we went on a tear to end the season and was the hottest player of the playoffs. He had one other good year in 2016 but otherwise was never near that level again. He had a very Matt Shaub-esque career, imo.

As for the current state of things, the ravens are playing well and appear to be the best team in football right now. You could have made a case for firing Harbaugh during the Flacco slump years, but since Lamar got there he has a COTY award and 4 out of 5 years has a playoff appearance (soon to be 5/6), despite having a QB who's missed roughly a a quarter of each played season due to injury.

Winning a Super Bowl gets you a lot of rope, but it doesn't mean you can't hang yourself with it. Again, I don't think Harbaugh is a the top of top coaches, but like Tomlin I think he's markedly better than McDermott. I'll never prefer a Defensive coach, unless your name is Bill Belichick, in an offensive league though. Even then, maybe his time has come too.

How quickly the bar changes to "they've made the playoffs a couple times" lol.

 

That's kinda the point.

 

Here we are discussing firing an HC who is potentially going to miss the playoffs for the first time in 5 seasons, and propping up another coach (who folks consider a pretty good HC) for making the playoffs 4 times in the last 8 years with ONE playoff win in that span.

 

Pretty funny.

 

 

Edited November 22, 2023 by FireChans

[Chaos]

57 minutes ago, FireChans said:

How quickly the bar changes to "they've made the playoffs a couple times" lol.

 

That's kinda the point.

 

Here we are discussing firing an HC who is potentially going to miss the playoffs for the first time in 5 seasons, and propping up another coach (who folks consider a pretty good HC) for making the playoffs 4 times in the last 8 years with ONE playoff win in that span.

 

Pretty funny.

 

 

Tomlin and Harbaugh are given the benefit of the doubt by their organizations because they have won super bowls. Doug Pederson will happily explain that sometimes even that is not enough. Ask yourself, who helped their team more, Steelers and Ravens hanging on to their coaches indefinitely, or the Eagles making a change. I am sure different people will answer that question differently, just pointing out the Bills are hardly facing a unique decision. 

[FireChans]

11 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Tomlin and Harbaugh are given the benefit of the doubt by their organizations because they have won super bowls. Doug Pederson will happily explain that sometimes even that is not enough. Ask yourself, who helped their team more, Steelers and Ravens hanging on to their coaches indefinitely, or the Eagles making a change. I am sure different people will answer that question differently, just pointing out the Bills are hardly facing a unique decision. 

That’s what I said. In your opinion, basically, they get gigantic leashes because they won a Super Bowl 10 or 15 years ago.

 

That’s fair if you think that. I would just let you know that if McD pulls off an SB, you better be okay with making him coach for life because we’ll be there too.

 

I personally don’t think that though. I don’t think the Steelers are waxing poetically about that Super Bowl in 2009. I think they think Tomlin is a good coach and until he proves otherwise in the form of a couple disastrous seasons, he stays.

Edited November 22, 2023 by FireChans

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

14 minutes ago, FireChans said:

That’s what I said. In your opinion, basically, they get gigantic leashes because they won a Super Bowl 10 or 15 years ago.

 

That’s fair if you think that. I would just let you know that if McD pulls off an SB, you better be okay with making him coach for life because we’ll be there too.

 

 

Actually, as Chaos pointed out he could be fired just like Pederson was.  You don’t have to hold onto a coach even if they win a Super Bowl. 
 

But yes, I would be fine with holding onto McDermott far past his sell by date if he brings us a Super Bowl this year. 

[Toyo321]

It is basically a coin flip,   Heads you win, tails you lose.  He must go to the AFCCG, and win, no other result will be acceptable, IMO.  That is Heads.

 

If we get smoked by Philly, KC, Dallas and Miami and we miss the playoffs,  that is tails.  Tails means he needs to go, period.  Do not let the door hit your backside when your going out the door.

 

He really is the weakest coach on the listed teams above.  All these other coaches have more to offer.  McDaniel's is on par with him if not a little better than him right now.

 

Its a tough call but I guarantee his past mistakes will come back and haunt him and this team before this year is over.

 

Edited November 23, 2023 by Toyo321

[FireChans]

5 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Actually, as Chaos pointed out he could be fired just like Pederson was.  You don’t have to hold onto a coach even if they win a Super Bowl. 
 

But yes, I would be fine with holding onto McDermott far past his sell by date if he brings us a Super Bowl this year. 

He could be. That’s pretty rare though, no?

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

He could be. That’s pretty rare though, no?

Of course it is. 
 

there are not a lot of coaches with multiple Super Bowl rings so it is much more common to hold on to them past their sell by dates. 
 

not sure if the Eagles are on to something or not. We will see how long Sirianni lasts. 

[Yockopondowsk]

He ended the drought. He hired Beane. We’ve made the playoffs consistently. He’ll coach out his contract, and get another one. The guy isn’t going anywhere.  

[FireChans]

21 minutes ago, Toyo321 said:

It is basically a coin flip,   Heads you win, tails you lose.  He must go to the AFCCG, and win, no other result will be acceptable, IMO.  That is Heads.

 

If we get smoked by Philly, KC, Dallas and Miami and we miss the playoffs,  that is tails.  Tails means he needs to go, period.  Do not let the door hit your backside when your going out the door.

 

He really is the weakest coach on the listed teams above.  All these other coaches have more to offer.  McDaniel's is on par with him if not a little better than him right now.

 

Its a tough call but I guarantee his past mistakes will come back and haunt him and this team before this year is over.

 

This analogy is not good. Really not like a coin flip at all.

[BullBuchanan]

3 hours ago, FireChans said:

How quickly the bar changes to "they've made the playoffs a couple times" lol.

 

That's kinda the point.

 

Here we are discussing firing an HC who is potentially going to miss the playoffs for the first time in 5 seasons, and propping up another coach (who folks consider a pretty good HC) for making the playoffs 4 times in the last 8 years with ONE playoff win in that span.

 

Pretty funny.

 

 

You're conveniently leaving out the part where he's a Super Bowl champion. He has the track record and the DNA to replicate it at any time. That's while he's still there. He's succeeded without top tier talent ont he offensive side of the ball.

McDermott has failed given every opportunity. Form my perspective he doesn't have the DNA. He's already shown us his peak. They aren't remotely similar situations, even when you try to time slice it in the best possible way to support a different narrative. It's pretty clear to me, and their teams, that Harbaugh and Tomlin aren't holding their teams back from winning another Super Bowl, but I'm convinced that McDermott is.

Edited November 23, 2023 by BullBuchanan

[BullBuchanan]

On 11/21/2023 at 10:11 AM, GerstAusGosheim said:

Remember when the O only scored 10 points in the playoffs against Cincinnati – yet, everyone blamed Leslie?

 

If this team continues to look significantly better under Brady, then one could argue Sean cost us a chance at the last two Super Bowls. 

 

 

 

 

 

I blamed Leslie because the Bengals were down 3 starting offensive lineman and not only did we get 0 pass rush (1 sack for 2 yards - coverage sack if memory serves), but we didn't even scheme for it. Leslie never schemed to his opponents weaknesses and never exploited them in game. It was just nickel tampa-2 all day every day.

 

Now, is it McDermott that's actually the cause behind that? Maybe, because we do the same ***** on offense. I've routinely watched us not exploit defensive injuries or inefficiencies year after year go back to the beginning of his tenure.

[DapperCam]

One reason it is hard to evaluate McDermott and just point to the playoffs as good enough is that he’s had a top 3 QB in the league the past 3 seasons.

 

If you have a top 3 QB in the league that is getting All Pro votes, then it would be a massive failure to miss the playoffs.

Edited November 23, 2023 by DapperCam

[FireChans]

3 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

You're conveniently leaving out the part where he's a Super Bowl champion. He has the track record and the DNA to replicate it at any time. That's while he's still there. He's succeeded without top tier talent ont he offensive side of the ball.

McDermott has failed given every opportunity. Form my perspective he doesn't have the DNA. He's already shown us his peak. They aren't remotely similar situations, even when you try to time slice it in the best possible way to support a different narrative. It's pretty clear to me, and their teams, that Harbaugh and Tomlin aren't holding their teams back from winning another Super Bowl, but I'm convinced that McDermott is.

Yes yes, he has that Super Bowl “DNA” which has been clearly expressed with two playoff wins in a decade. Just a born playoff and championship deliverer. 

 

the list of coaches who won 1 Super Bowl and never won again is A LOT higher than coaches who have won multiple.

 

I love this.

 

 

2 hours ago, DapperCam said:

One reason it is hard to evaluate McDermott and just point to the playoffs as good enough is that he’s had a top 3 QB in the league the past 3 seasons.

 

If you have a top 3 QB in the league that is getting All Pro votes, then it would be a massive failure to miss the playoffs.

Sean Payton did it three years in a row with one of the greatest QB’s of all time.

 

Tomlin missed the playoffs 4 years with Big Ben. 
 

Pete Carrol missed the playoffs twice with Russell Wilson.

 

Josh Allen isn’t Tom Brady and McDermott isn’t Bill Belichick. 

Edited November 23, 2023 by FireChans