Road to the Playoffs

[Success]

If we actually make the playoffs by losing to the bad teams on our schedule and beating the good teams, it will bode well for a title run.

 

Because, ya know - most of the teams in the playoffs are good.

 

 

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, TheWei44 said:

Although we don't technically control our own destiny, if we win out, I saw chances of us missing the playoffs is <1%.  So (almost) control our own destiny!  See PlayoffStatus.com

 

Yes, although I posted that we don't control our own destiny and a scenario to prove that, it is an unlikely scenario.  Just a possible one.  The entire reason for posting that was not to show that we can miss the playoffs if we win out... it was more to show that we have no room for error because there are many more scenarios that we miss the playoffs even losing just one game and thats what people don't understand when they post things like "just go 5-2 and we will get in."  Its not that simple. 

[TheWei44]

40 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Yes, although I posted that we don't control our own destiny and a scenario to prove that, it is an unlikely scenario.  Just a possible one.  The entire reason for posting that was not to show that we can miss the playoffs if we win out... it was more to show that we have no room for error because there are many more scenarios that we miss the playoffs even losing just one game and thats what people don't understand when they post things like "just go 5-2 and we will get in."  Its not that simple. 

Agreed, as of right now, the model essentially says, win out and we're in.  Lose one of six, and we are almost surely in (96%).  Lose two of six, and we're something like 56% chance. Lose three of six, it says 11% chance.  Of course, everything will keep changing.

Edited November 21, 2023 by TheWei44

[bills6969]

Assuming we don’t catch the Dolphins for the division, 10 wins should get us a wildcard spot.  Here’s the path to 10 wins…

 

Must wins:

 

Pats

@chargers

Cowboys

 

Take one of the following:

@Philly

@KC

@Miami 

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, bills6969 said:

Assuming we don’t catch the Dolphins for the division, 10 wins should get us a wildcard spot.  Here’s the path to 10 wins…

 

Must wins:

 

Pats

@chargers

Cowboys

 

Take one of the following:

@Philly

@KC

@Miami 

 

I don't think 10 wins is enough.  Not without some serious help.  Pitts and Houston only need 4 wins to hit that mark just like us.  Cleveland only needs 3. 4 other teams would need 5 wins.  Some of them will get there.  I dont know if 3 will but some of them will.

Edited November 21, 2023 by Scott7975

[Big Blitz]

Beat Philly and we can talk about playoff odds.  I don’t want to hear about them till we do that.  
 

We should be their trap game.   
 

And after watching Miami do all it could to lose to the Raiders I’m not convinced they win Friday.  Mostart looks gassed.  Achane is glass.  
 

Jets may respond to the QB change.   

Edited November 21, 2023 by Big Blitz

[dakrider]

Bills play better as underdogs than SB favorites.  Foolish to me to try and project their final record. All Bills need to do from here on out is win their next game and not worry about anything else.

[Milanos Milano]

2 hours ago, bills6969 said:

Assuming we don’t catch the Dolphins for the division, 10 wins should get us a wildcard spot.  Here’s the path to 10 wins…

 

Must wins:

 

Pats

@chargers

Cowboys

 

Take one of the following:

@Philly

@KC

@Miami 

10-7 isn’t going to be good enough, not with the playoff simulator i was messing around with. We can only afford to lose 1 game. Pats, Chargers, Cowboys, and Miami are all must wins. It’s between Philly or KC we have to beat. 

32 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

Beat Philly and we can talk about playoff odds.  I don’t want to hear about them till we do that.  
 

We should be their trap game.   
 

And after watching Miami do all it could to lose to the Raiders I’m not convinced they win Friday.  Mostart looks gassed.  Achane is glass.  
 

Jets may respond to the QB change.   

If we lose to Philly, we will have to win out. 

[TheFunPolice]

Staley basically started yelling at the press today. 

 

His "tough guy" attempt complete with shaky little voice was just hilarious. I actually thought he might just start crying right there on the podium. 

 

Classic case of a definitely not tough guy pretending he's a hard ass. Now he's being mocked all over sports media. 

 

It was a thing of beauty, so if you haven't seen it it's must watch TV! 

 

I hope the Chargers sign him to a 10 year extension.

Edited November 21, 2023 by TheFunPolice

[transplantbillsfan]

Still say 10-7 gets in. Some posters are looking at doomsday scenarios rather than reality.

 

You guys realize the Bills are the only team in the WC hunt with their bye week remaining, right? That means every other team plays one more game than Buffalo.

 

I think this iteration of the team could manage 6-1... but 5-2 still finds a way in when all the other teams have 8 remaining games as opposed to our 7.

1 hour ago, Big Blitz said:

Beat Philly and we can talk about playoff odds.  I don’t want to hear about them till we do that.  
 

We should be their trap game.   
 

And after watching Miami do all it could to lose to the Raiders I’m not convinced they win Friday.  Mostart looks gassed.  Achane is glass.  
 

Jets may respond to the QB change.   

 

Philly is the least important game to win remaining on our schedule.

 

If we only lose one more game this year, I hope it's to Philly 

[QCity]

2 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Still say 10-7 gets in.

 

I agree that 10-7 gets us in.

[LABILLBACKER]

5 hours ago, TheWei44 said:

Agreed, as of right now, the model essentially says, win out and we're in.  Lose one of six, and we are almost surely in (96%).  Lose two of six, and we're something like 56% chance. Lose three of six, it says 11% chance.  Of course, everything will keep changing.

We need to take care of business and keep hoping for Steeler, Texans & Browns loses.

[BobbyC81]

Here’s my Bills prediction:  they lose the next game to go into the bye at 6-6.  

Out of the bye, they win the last 5 games, which would include of course winning the last game in Miami.

 

 Miami loses to Dallas and Baltimore.  

 

Both teams end up 11-6 but we get the division by beating them twice.

 

As the division winner with the worst record, the Bills have to play the best wild card team, which is Miami and we beat them a 3rd time at home in January.

 

 

Edited November 21, 2023 by BobbyC81
Added more good stuff

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

6 hours ago, TheFunPolice said:

Staley basically started yelling at the press today. 

 

His "tough guy" attempt complete with shaky little voice was just hilarious. I actually thought he might just start crying right there on the podium. 

 

Classic case of a definitely not tough guy pretending he's a hard ass. Now he's being mocked all over sports media. 

 

It was a thing of beauty, so if you haven't seen it it's must watch TV! 

 

I hope the Chargers sign him to a 10 year extension.

Works cheap.  Probably hired on in the off season to make up lunch boxes to sell to migrant workers.  Fits in well with Dean Spanos.

[Chaos]

5 hours ago, QCity said:

 

I agree that 10-7 gets us in.

Unless 10-7 includes Miami also finishing 10-7 or worse, with the Bills beating them twice, 10-7 is now statistically very unlikely to gain a wild card spot.  

[Buffalo_Stampede]

I’ll say this, if the Bills make the playoffs they’re winning the Superbowl. Their remaining schedule at 6-5 is brutal. They’re going to have to get extremely hot to end the season.

 

Playoffs actually start this week for the Bills.

 

My prediction is they finish 8-9 and miss the playoffs.

Edited November 21, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[4merper4mer]

6 hours ago, Araiza Curse said:

10-7 isn’t going to be good enough, not with the playoff simulator i was messing around with. We can only afford to lose 1 game. Pats, Chargers, Cowboys, and Miami are all must wins. It’s between Philly or KC we have to beat. 

If we lose to Philly, we will have to win out. 

Come back to this post after week 18 and say oops because not a single 10-7 team…..Buffalo or other….missed the playoffs.  I’ll do the same if one does.

[PBF81]

26 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Unless 10-7 includes Miami also finishing 10-7 or worse, with the Bills beating them twice, 10-7 is now statistically very unlikely to gain a wild card spot.  

 

If it comes down to tiebreakers, it's incredibly unlikely that we get in.  It's the opposite of 2017.  

 

Let's simply see whether we can give Philly a game first.  That will determine the outlook for the last quarter.  

 

We have the advantage of an extra day to prepare.  Not that we've been strong on preparation, nonetheless.  

 

 

[Chaos]

28 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I’ll say this, if the Bills make the playoffs they’re winning the Superbowl. Their remaining schedule at 6-5 is brutal. They’re going to have to get extremely hot to end the season.

 

Playoffs actually start this week for the Bills.

 

My prediction is they finish 8-9 and miss the playoffs.

All 17 games count the same.  Blundering away games, and chalking it off to "its early in the season" leads to the situation the Bills are in now. 

Having said that, the Cowboys are always over rated, we have a great track record against the Dolphins , and in real life the chiefs offense is broken. zero second half points in three games in a row, and leading the league in dropped passes. they are beatable.

[stlbills13]

Just win baby. Margin for error is very low but you can't tell me the Bills can't do this

 

Beat the eagles in a game where the eagles have a short week. The eagles are more vulnerable on defense than in the past. No goedert is a big loss for their schemes too.

 

Beat the chiefs coming off a bye. The chiefs are still good and I still may even consider them the afc favorites but they aren't the same chiefs. The bye is huge. 

 

Beat the cowboys at home. They've actually been great lately but dak is due to dak sometime soon

 

Beat the chargers. Who can't do this?

 

Beat the patriots at home

 

At that point you may not even need to beat the dolphins. But to me they're a good team that just don't match up well against QBs that can actually make plays.