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Road to the Playoffs


steven50

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1 hour ago, Chaos said:

Unless 10-7 includes Miami also finishing 10-7 or worse, with the Bills beating them twice, 10-7 is now statistically very unlikely to gain a wild card spot.  

 

10-7 gives them a 63.5% chance which is not considered statistically unlikely. 

 

9-8 drastically drops them to around 9% which, yes, is unlikely. 

 

48 minutes ago, Chaos said:

All 17 games count the same. 

 

No, they certainly do not. It should be obvious that division and conference games weigh more.

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1 hour ago, QCity said:

 

10-7 gives them a 63.5% chance which is not considered statistically unlikely. 

 

9-8 drastically drops them to around 9% which, yes, is unlikely. 

 

 

No, they certainly do not. It should be obvious that division and conference games weigh more.

Your 63.7 percent chance is wrong. That is a generic value which ignores the actual results so far this season. 

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If the Bills can win this week, I think there is a good chance that they come out of the bye in a 4 or 5-way tie between all of the wild card teams at 7-5.

 

Broncos, Bengals, Bills, Colts, Steelers, Jags, Dolphins and Browns all have feasible paths to 7-5 without big upsets required (Jets over Miami, Bengals over Jags, Bills over Eagles, Rams over Browns being the biggest upsets to get those teams to 7-5).

 

Crowded field this year.

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Looked at the simulator, and assuming we will win against Miami, The Chargers and Patriots, the key other game is The Chiefs.  Beat the Chiefs and the playoff odds go up to 66%.  And, if you beat either the Eagles or Cowboys the odds go up to 99%.  You don't have to win all 6, but at least 4 of the right games and if you want a virtual guarantee, 5 of the 6.

Edited by margolbe
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8 hours ago, Chaos said:

Your 63.7 percent chance is wrong. That is a generic value which ignores the actual results so far this season. 

 

I'm not sure what you mean by generic value? But of course it accounts for results so far (i.e. their record) and future matchups (division teams play each other more at the end of the season), opponents record, home field advantage, etc. It's not an exact science by any means but what everyone should takeaway from this is the difference between 3 wins and 4 wins. Going 3-3 is less than a 10% shot, while 4-2 gives them a pretty good chance at 63%.

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  • 3 weeks later...
2 hours ago, steven50 said:

All the "Miami isn't losing to the Titans!" comments sure didn't age well.🤣

 

to be fair they lost like 4 offensive linemen, a couple defenders were at least banged up, Achane was banged up and didn't get many carries, Hill was banged up and out half the game. ***** happens and when people say these things, they don't guess with injuries, people can also guess wrong.  I'm sure you have made some wrong guesses around here too.

 

I'm glad they didn't age well.

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4 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

There is still a very good chance we don't make the playoffs if we dont win the division though.

I get the attitude - hard to trust this team 

 

no doubt that something has changed.

 

sucks we didn’t get that fumble against AJ brown in Philly we would be rolling right now 

 

oh well

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3 minutes ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

Is there any meaningful difference between Indy or Pittsburgh winning Saturday?

 

Root for a Steelers win as they have a tougher schedule after this weekend. Plus, they play 3 out of their last 4 on the road. The Colts play 3 out of their last 4 at home.

 

Colts - Steelers, at Falcons, Raiders, Texans

 

Steelers - at Colts, Bengals, at Seahawks, at Ravens

 

 

A perfect Saturday will be the Vikings over the Bengals, Steelers over the Colts, and Lions over the Broncos

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Just now, Drew21PA said:

I get the attitude - hard to trust this team 

 

no doubt that something has changed.

 

sucks we didn’t get that fumble against AJ brown in Philly we would be rolling right now 

 

oh well

 

It's not that for me really.  I actually do trust this team to win.  Dallas is going to be a tough game, but in Josh Allen I trust.  It's just that so many teams are so close that not winning the division is going to be really tough.  I was going to revisit my old thread to put a scenario and see if people think its actually unrealistic.  Because I believe its really realistic.  Thing is even if you change a few games, it just changes those teams and still leaves the Bills out.  I'm just going to put it here though since my thread is pages and pages back. 

 

Keep in mind that I think we can absolutely win the division as I think Miami is going to lose more games.  This is just for the sake of argument that Miami surprises and actually wins out while we lose to Dallas.  Im only going to put up the games that matter and just assume Miami wins the division.  Lets see if any of this looks unrealistic to anyone and if so what games they would change...

 

Week 15

Cinci over Vikings

Colts over Pitts

Detroit over Denver

Browns over Bears

Ravens over Jags

Texans over Titans

Week 16

Cinci over Pitts

Jags over Tampa

Browns over Texans

Denver over Pats

Colts over Atlanta

49ers over Ravens

Week 17

Browns over Jets

Seattle over Pitts

Colts over Raiders

KC over Cinci

Jags over Panthers

Denver over Chargers

Titans over Texans

Week 18

Denver over Raiders

Ravens over Pitts

Cinci over Browns

Colts over Texans

Jags over Titans

 

Again, I think we have a good shot at winning the division.  This exercise is just to show how difficult it is to get in without winning the division.  Is there anything in there that anyone would change.  There are a couple scenarios where the Bills make it, but there are also a lot that they don't.  This is just my list of gut feeling on how games could play out.  In this scenario the Bills would not make it.  Obviously, I could see some games going another way but I had to pick someone.

 

 

 

 

18 minutes ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

Is there any meaningful difference between Indy or Pittsburgh winning Saturday?

 

It honestly all depends on how the rest of the season plays out.  Both teams can make the playoffs.  There is a huge tie in the AFC right now which is why getting a WC is so difficult this year.

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