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Road to the Playoffs


steven50

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13 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

That’s kind of missing the point imo…even when our team is great that jets defense has had our number and we absolutely dominated them.  That’s the best performance we’ve had against the jets defense in years.  I wouldn’t take too much out of what our defense was able to accomplish for the reasons you said though 


This is where I’m at.  
 

Do I think our defense is back to an elite unit because of that game?… no.  More a product of the opponent. 
 

However, the Jets came into that game with every intention of winning and getting themselves firmly in the playoff race with, apparently, Aaron Rodgers coming back.  
 

We rendered that discussion pointless this morning after our most dominant performance against them in recent memory.  
 

Offenses don’t just do that to the Jets defense.   Even when their offense continually lets them down, they stay in games.  They don’t typically get rocked like that.

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2 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Offenses don’t just do that to the Jets defense.   Even when their offense continually lets them down, they stay in games.  They don’t typically get rocked like that.

 

This is true.  Only teams that came close to our score was the Cowboys (30) and the Chargers (27.)  You also can't tell me that we couldn't have scored more points if we needed to. We ran the ball 36 times and knelt the ball twice.

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14 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Miami doesn’t look very good either so there’s still a division win path…their tough stretch doesn’t hit until the final three games though so it could look like they have things locked up then get tight in a hurry 

 

I don’t really buy the nyt algorithm,  the Steelers do not pass the eye test.  I’d be shocked if they make it 

 

One week at a time.  This is the time of the year when things start changing after every week.

 

I do like that Miami has to finish the year playing Dallas, Ravens (in Baltimore) and the Bills.

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20 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

 

I don't think that is safe to say at all.  It's only safe to say if you can find reason for it and so far you haven't convinced me.

I guess if you don’t believe byes have any value then you won’t be convinced…

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2 minutes ago, mannc said:

I guess if you don’t believe byes have any value then you won’t be convinced…

 

They do have value.  I never disputed that.  You just have yet to show me that taking a bye after London vs taking one during the most important and toughest stretch of the season would change anything.  You have yet to show me that it is better.

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Gotta take care of the Pats and Chargers, that gets you to 8 wins at a minimum you need to go 2-2 in the more “difficult” stretch of games which is possible and that gets you to 10-7 which should put you in wild card contention and if one of those wins in the “difficult” stretch comes against the Fins you are in contention for the division. 
 

Right now your best bet is to take care of the Eagles which esp away will not be easy but to be the man you gotta beat the man.

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1 hour ago, Scott7975 said:

 

This is true.  Only teams that came close to our score was the Cowboys (30) and the Chargers (27.)  You also can't tell me that we couldn't have scored more points if we needed to. We ran the ball 36 times and knelt the ball twice.

yup - we left 4 points on the table explicitly (missed XP by Bass and kneel-downs to end the game instead of a FG try).

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Playing around with the New York Times simulator, the Bills still only have ~60 percent chance to make the postseason with various combinations of victories in 4 of the final 6. That number dips (to ~50 percent) if you count Miami as one of the 2 losses. Glad we're still alive after yesterday, but this is going to be a difficult road with plenty of help most likely needed.

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1 hour ago, Scott7975 said:

 

OK I checked.  The Bills still do not control their own destiny. They can win out and still not make it and there are a bunch of ways the Bills would not make it even losing just one game.  So as I said after the Broncos loss and still remains true today... our best path is to win the division.  If we don't win the division, we need help.  You keep fighting that, but I am sorry it is true.

I feel like there has to be something wrong with your math that a 12-5 team would miss the playoffs are you sure you're not missing teams that would have to either lose or tie in matchups?

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I'm sticking with my prediction, no matter how overly optimistic it may seem:

Bills go into week 18 only needing to beat the Dolphins to secure the 7th seed. The Dolphins, having already secured the 2nd seed and with nothing to play for, pull the starters early and the Bills win.

Bills return to Miami the following week for the Saturday night game of Wild Card Weekend.

 

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7 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

I feel like there has to be something wrong with your math that a 12-5 team would miss the playoffs are you sure you're not missing teams that would have to either lose or tie in matchups?

 

Im not using math.  Im using the playoff simulator.  There are other teams that also can make 12-5 and we dont hold tie breakers.  Our conference record is the second worst in the conference.

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5 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Im not using math.  Im using the playoff simulator.  There are other teams that also can make 12-5 and we dont hold tie breakers.  Our conference record is the second worst in the conference.

I don’t think a 12-5 team has ever missed the playoffs. 
 

Not saying it’s impossible but it’s highly unlikely. That would also mean the dolphins had at minimum 4 losses and Bills would have head to head. 
 

I think 11-6 Bills team has high likelihood of making playoffs, and a 10-7 team is probably around 50-50. 
 

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13 minutes ago, pennstate10 said:

I don’t think a 12-5 team has ever missed the playoffs. 
 

Not saying it’s impossible but it’s highly unlikely. That would also mean the dolphins had at minimum 4 losses and Bills would have head to head. 
 

I think 11-6 Bills team has high likelihood of making playoffs, and a 10-7 team is probably around 50-50. 
 

 

Well that wasn't the point.  I've said this at least 3 times now... All I said was the Bills do not control their own destiny.  That is 100% true.  I have proven that before this weeks games and after this weeks games.  Someone told me they do.  So I had prove they don't... which they don't.

 

Unlikely, yes.  Its also unlikely the Bills win out.  If the Dolphins had 4 losses then the Bills would likely win the division.  That was my whole point since my other thread... the best path to the playoffs is the Bills winning the division.  Its very hard to get a WC this year because all the AFC teams have practically the same record this late in the season.

 

It is not a high likelihood.  Many teams can finish with that record and the Bills hold almost no tie breakers.  That would also mean the Bills only lost 1 game in this stretch which is also not a high likelihood.  Possible, sure.  High likelihood... I would not say that.

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32 minutes ago, Bills fan since 87 said:

ESPN playoff machine is up.  

 

I'm not a fan so much of the simulators that show percentages.  I prefer this one as it shows the actual playoff matchups as you pick games.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

This is going to be harder than I thought. I was relatively generous and the Bills still did not crack the top 7

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43 minutes ago, Bills fan since 87 said:

ESPN playoff machine is up.  

 

I'm not a fan so much of the simulators that show percentages.  I prefer this one as it shows the actual playoff matchups as you pick games.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

 

Yes, thats the one I been using

10 minutes ago, BuffaloBaumer said:

This is going to be harder than I thought. I was relatively generous and the Bills still did not crack the top 7

 

That is what I been saying.  People giving us a 2 game cushion don't get it.  They think because the browns, pitts, and bengals all beat each other up that it will take them out but that is not necessarily the case nor are those the only teams in contention for the spots.  I am not even saying we can't get a WC.  Just that it will be really tough to do so with our remaining schedule and that we actually don't control our own destiny at this point.

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9 minutes ago, BuffaloBaumer said:

This is going to be harder than I thought. I was relatively generous and the Bills still did not crack the top 7

 

I'm grasping but so far Miami has won all their games that they were expected to win.  I refuse to believe they are good enough to win ALL those type of games.  In the NFL, even the above average to good teams lose games they are expected to win. Heck, Buffalo has lost 3 of them already (@Jets, @NE, Denver).

So I'm hoping Miami gets picked off by someone unexpected,,,,and Buffalo can manage to stay within a game.  Then the final game vs Miami would be for the Division.

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