Week 9 thread - We’re on to Cincinnati

[Dillenger4]

Cincy is NOT a good football team. Not sure what games this season you have watched. They lost significant players on D during the offseason and it shows! Their D is bad and we will score at will.

It's Our D that is the issue and, now that we have reinforcements that hopefully play, we should be OK.

I can't effin wait for this game!!! Gonna be a beatdown boys!

Go KC - beat the fraud Phins and we are in 1st place again.

[Dillenger4]

4 minutes ago, Dillenger4 said:

Cincy is NOT a good football team. Not sure what games this season you have watched. They lost significant players on D during the offseason and it shows! Their D is bad and we will score at will.

It's Our D that is the issue and, now that we have reinforcements that hopefully play, we should be OK.

I can't effin wait for this game!!! Gonna be a beatdown boys!

Go KC - beat the fraud Phins and we are in 1st place again.

From PFF - and there are MANY other outlets telling truth too:

The Cincinnati Bengals defense isn’t playing at the premier level we saw in the second half of last season. With that said, bend-but-don’t-break works when you can force interceptions and hold the 49ers to a 50% red-zone conversion rate. This is another step forward for Cincinnati, but regression seems imminent at the hands of Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs in Week 8.m The Bengals enter this matchup hobbling with injuries as the Bills call in two new studly defenders.

[Coach Tuesday]

This is the weekly pregame thread and some of y'all be wrestling with each other in the dirt.  C'mon.

[boater]

So far this season, we made scrubs like Zach Wilson, Trevor Lawrence, and Mac Jones look like Johnny Unitas.

 

I'm not having a flash of confidence facing Joe Burrow. I don't care how many days McD has had to prepare.

[transplantbillsfan]

 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Any injuries this week on the O-line, blame it on Joe B in the Athletic!  He just gave us the kiss of death!

 

It’s helped that the Bills have stayed healthy on the offensive line

[Big Turk]

 

48 minutes ago, boater said:

So far this season, we made scrubs like Zach Wilson, Trevor Lawrence, and Mac Jones look like Johnny Unitas.

 

I'm not having a flash of confidence facing Joe Burrow. I don't care how many days McD has had to prepare.

 

We also made Sam Howell look terrible while the Eagles made him look like Joe Montana twice. It's a week to week league. Every game is different and it's own entity. Why people can't understand this I can't figure it out. They play once a week not 2-3-4 times a week like other sports that play 2-3-4-10x as many games.

 

Edited November 2, 2023 by Big Turk

[transplantbillsfan]

 

[Franco_92]

1 hour ago, dakrider said:

Bills gave up 29 to Patriots.  Cincinnati is just a more rounded team.  Better running game, better defense than the Bills.

Whereas the Bills - Allen has to play spectacular just to have a chance to win.  On paper it seems Bills would need the offense clicking on all cylinders for the entire game to win in a high scoring outcome.

Cincinnati's run game has been a joke this year lol

[Scott7975]

6 hours ago, mannc said:

I’ve heard deferring gives you a very slight advantage from an analalytics standpoint, but it makes no sense and a lot of teams don’t do it.  In a game like this, against a great QB, on the road, it gives the other team an opportunity to get a quick two-touchdown lead (like what happened to the Bills in Cinci last year) and your entire offensive game plan just went out the window.  There might be some games where it makes sense, but not this one.

 

If they get a two td lead at the beginning of the game then they are going to get that same two td lead whether you defer or not.  Deferring is not a small advantage. It almost always gives you a chance to score twice in a row.  

[Big Turk]

2 minutes ago, Franco_92 said:

Cincinnati's run game has been a joke this year lol

 

You can tell who actually watches more than just the last game a team played.

[Franco_92]

Just now, Big Turk said:

 

You can tell who actually watches more than just the last game a team played.

Yup. And to be clear to the "anti-homerzzz" we are not saying they can't have success running the ball against us - they had a bad run game last year too, and ran all over us. We are just calling out posters who are pulling takes out of their behinds. 

[Big Turk]

6 hours ago, mannc said:

I’ve heard deferring gives you a very slight advantage from an analalytics standpoint, but it makes no sense and a lot of teams don’t do it.  In a game like this, against a great QB, on the road, it gives the other team an opportunity to get a quick two-touchdown lead (like what happened to the Bills in Cinci last year) and your entire offensive game plan just went out the window.  There might be some games where it makes sense, but not this one.

 

Really?  If by "a lot" you mean maybe 2% of the time or less, then sure...pretty much every game I watch(and I watch a lot of them), the team that wins the coin toss defers(except in OT of course).  It gives you a known quantity you can use to your advantage(ie, getting the ball out of the half, taking more time to run clock so you have 2 possessions in a row) versus an unknown quantity(not knowing when you'll get the ball in the second half).

 

Control of the ball ALWAYS beats chasing the ball, 100% of the time.

Edited November 2, 2023 by Big Turk

[Drew21PA]

Alright McDermott I’m going to give you the benefit of a doubt here 

 

idk why but I am

 

i could be hoping and not being smart here BUT - though they did beat San Francisco - I still don’t think they are where they were last year (Cincinnati)

 

though they did win - Brock Purdy turnovers were horrible - and he still had over 300 yards on the defense

 

sorry we have that many yards we won’t fail to capitilize

 

our offense worries me

 

their offense worries me

 

BUT - could be a game we need to turn it on and I’ll believe we dig deep here and win

 

gonna say we win a close one and gonna be a heart racing experience 

 

37-34 Buffalo 

[Billsfan1972]

15 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

 

We also made Sam Howell look terrible while the Eagles made him look like Joe Montana twice. It's a week to week league. Every game is different and it's own entity. Why people can't understand this I can't figure it out. They play once a week not 2-3-4 times a week like other sports that play 2-3-4-10x as many games.

Wow the Bills really showed everyone with their play vs. Jimmy G & Sam Howell.....  You got to be kidding???  Yes I know you are using Sam Howell as an example because he's played well vs. Philly.  

 

Next you'll go on about them stopping Tua (which Philly did too).  Tua had a decent game, and Buffalo played well.

 

And before you start I'm an optimist and all I want is 3-4 stops from the Bills Defense (i.e. Punts) and flipping the field and the Bills will win. 

Edited November 2, 2023 by Billsfan1972

[dakrider]

7 minutes ago, Franco_92 said:

Cincinnati's run game has been a joke this year lol

You're right, I was mostly looking at their last game Mixon looked good.  Rest of the year they've been pretty poor running the ball surprisingly.

[Scott7975]

5 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Agree 100%. I've yet to hear how the Bills D will be successful in containing the Bengals offense. What's the McD game plan? 

 

No one can tell you that.  It comes down to player execution. Will they maintain good zones?  Will they make the tackle? Will they rush the passer?  It's all execution. No one thought McD could contain Lamar and the Ravens offense either.  Then McD wrote the book.

[Big Turk]

2 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Wow the Bills really showed everyone with their paly vs. Jimmy G & Sam Howell.....  You got to be kidding???  Yes I know you are using Sam Howell as an example because he's played well vs. Philly.  

 

Next you'll go on about them stopping Tua (which Philly did too).  Tua had a decent game, and Buffalo played well.

 

And before you start I'm an optimist and all I want is 3-4 stops from the Bills Defense (i.e. Punts) and flipping the field and the Bills will win. 

 

I mean you want to point out how the Bills suck because they can't stop "x" so I pointed out what other QB's we made look terrible have done to quality defenses. Or does it only work the way you try to do it in a single direction?

3 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

I think it's worth pointing out the Bengals run a west coast offense. That means Burrow gets rid of the ball quickly. Takes deep strikes when he sees obvious one on one advantages. The Bills were successful vs Tua despite his quick releases. However, it's quite different because Tua is mostly a first read QB. Burrow is able to go through his progressions and use his legs in big situations. Burrow is by far the best QB the Bills have faced. I don't see this defense stopping the Bengals O. Sorry.

 

It's funny that the Bengals offense is "so" good but never has been above the Bills in scoring offense since Burrow has entered the league with FAR better talent at the skill positions(at least according to the vast majority of posters here), which I actually tend to agree with.

 

At the end of the day the Bengals offense settles for field goals too much and usually leaves you wanting more...that is, the personnel they have suggests they should be far better than what they actually are.

Edited November 2, 2023 by Big Turk

[Billsfan1972]

3 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

I mean you want to point out how the Bills suck because they can't stop "x" so I pointed out what other QB's we made look terrible have done to quality defenses. Or does it only work the way you try to do it in a single direction?

 

It's funny that the Bengals offense is "so" good but never has been above the Bills in scoring offense since Burrow has entered the league with FAR better talent at the skill positions(at least according to the vast majority of posters here), which I actually tend to agree with.

 

At the end of the day the Bengals offense settles for field goals too much and usually leaves you wanting more...that is, the personnel they have suggests they should be far better than what they actually are.

I know exactly what you were trying to do.  I just found it silly.

 

For the most part the D has given up too many sustained drives and yards and allowed the NYG's to almost win the game and lost the game vs, NE.

 

Yet I still hold out hope for them (the Defense). 

[Big Turk]

Just now, Billsfan1972 said:

I know exactly what you were trying to do.  I just found it silly.

 

For the most part the D has given up too many sustained drives and yards and allowed the NYG's to almost win the game and lost the game vs, NE.

 

Yet I still hold out hope for them (the Defense). 

 

I agree the D has hurt them since the injuries...it seems like McD figured something out with using Poyer in a dime LB role with Rapp taking his spot at safety...they looked a lot better on D and Poyer had a few INTs he dropped, including a housecall.

 

With Joseph and Douglas shoring up their biggest opportunities I think they have the ability to get back to being closer to the beginning of the year...likely not top 3, but certainly can be top 10.

[Scott7975]

4 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

I agree but this team can lose to anyone too. Look at who we lost to. Frankly, who have the Bills beat besides their division rival Dolphins? 

 

Wins:

1 Raiders (stink)

2 Wash (stink)

3 Miami (quality win)

4 Giants (stink)

5 Tampa (stink) 

 

Not exactly world beaters 

 

Losses:

1 Jets (no Rodgers/ Hall no healthy)

2 Jags (quality team)

3 NE (stink) 

 

Not impressive to date. 

 

Fans want to talk about who the Dolphins have played and beat. When you take a deep dive at the Bills record it's anything but encouraging. 

 

Sunday night we will should get a pretty firm idea of the direction of the team. How good and or bad they are. 

 

Are the Bills really the better team? I don't think that's a given. 

 

The funny thing is all 5 of those teams you listed as "stink" team wins there were people here before the games with the "OMG how are we going to stop their pass rush.  Josh is going to get killed" or "Tampa is better than the Pats we are going to lose."  There were people propping up Howell. People were finding losses for all those games too.  Then they suddenly sucked after we won, and in some cases not just won but blew them out. 

 

Pretty sure most teams in the league have losses against crap teams.  Who cares.  A wins a win and a loss is a loss.  Just watch the game.

[Big Turk]

LMAO! If he thinks this is bad just wait...

 

 

[newcam2012]

5 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

The funny thing is all 5 of those teams you listed as "stink" team wins there were people here before the games with the "OMG how are we going to stop their pass rush.  Josh is going to get killed" or "Tampa is better than the Pats we are going to lose."  There were people propping up Howell. People were finding losses for all those games too.  Then they suddenly sucked after we won, and in some cases not just won but blew them out. 

 

Pretty sure most teams in the league have losses against crap teams.  Who cares.  A wins a win and a loss is a loss.  Just watch the game.

Oh I see how it goes. You can analyze teams the Bills have played and the Bills opponents and competition. 

 

Yet, I should basically be quiet and watch the game. Got it! 

8 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

The funny thing is all 5 of those teams you listed as "stink" team wins there were people here before the games with the "OMG how are we going to stop their pass rush.  Josh is going to get killed" or "Tampa is better than the Pats we are going to lose."  There were people propping up Howell. People were finding losses for all those games too.  Then they suddenly sucked after we won, and in some cases not just won but blew them out. 

 

Pretty sure most teams in the league have losses against crap teams.  Who cares.  A wins a win and a loss is a loss.  Just watch the game.

It cuts both ways Scott. More often than not people here consistently tell others how the Bills will win and win big. Let's get real. I don't hear you telling them "just watch the game."

 

 

[Big Turk]

4 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Oh I see how it goes. You can analyze teams the Bills have played and the Bills opponents and competition. 

 

Yet, I should basically be quiet and watch the game. Got it! 

It cuts both ways Scott. More often than not people here consistently tell others how the Bills will win and win big. Let's get real. I don't hear you telling them "just watch the game."

 

 

 

Probably because over the last 3+ years they HAVE consistently far more than they haven't?  Like most in the NFL during that time by a wide margin?  Statistically they would have a pretty high chance of being right.

[Maine-iac]

13 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

I agree the D has hurt them since the injuries...it seems like McD figured something out with using Poyer in a dime LB role with Rapp taking his spot at safety...they looked a lot better on D and Poyer had a few INTs he dropped, including a housecall.

 

With Joseph and Douglas shoring up their biggest opportunities I think they have the ability to get back to being closer to the beginning of the year...likely not top 3, but certainly can be top 10.

This .................... if we had just picked up a few of these guys a couple weeks earlier.

[Scott7975]

9 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Oh I see how it goes. You can analyze teams the Bills have played and the Bills opponents and competition. 

 

Yet, I should basically be quiet and watch the game. Got it! 

It cuts both ways Scott. More often than not people here consistently tell others how the Bills will win and win big. Let's get real. I don't hear you telling them "just watch the game."

 

 

I aint telling ya to be quiet.  Just saying... you are giving them no chance.  I aint gonna lie.  I'm not all that optimistic about this game either.  Mostly because of the D injuries but also because I dunno what offense shows up.  Has nothing to do with last year though.  Last year was last year.  What I do know is if this O turns it on, they can beat anyone.  I also know our D is going to make at least some stops.  Hopefully they make enough of them.

 

Honestly, I come to this thread to see practice week news and things about THIS WEEK, but it devolves into every other oh woe is me the Bills suck threads and I just get tired of reading it. I'm in this thread for news, not Dr. Phil.

Edited November 2, 2023 by Scott7975

[Big Turk]

4 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

I aint telling ya to be quiet.  Just saying... you are giving them no chance.  I aint gonna lie.  I'm not all that optimistic about this game either.  Mostly because of the D injuries but also because I dunno what offense shows up.  Has nothing to do with last year though.  Last year was last year.  What I do know is if this O turns it on, they can beat anyone.  I also know our D is going to make at least some stops.  Hopefully they make enough of them.

 

Honestly, I come to this thread to see practice week news and things about THIS WEEK, but it devolves into every other oh woe is me the Bills suck threads and I just get tired of reading it. I'm in this thread for news, not Dr. Phil.

 

If the Bills play their best, no team in the NFL, Bengals included can beat them.

[The Wiz]

Much better injury report today.

 

 

[Scott7975]

 

[newcam2012]

15 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

I aint telling ya to be quiet.  Just saying... you are giving them no chance.  I aint gonna lie.  I'm not all that optimistic about this game either.  Mostly because of the D injuries but also because I dunno what offense shows up.  Has nothing to do with last year though.  Last year was last year.  What I do know is if this O turns it on, they can beat anyone.  I also know our D is going to make at least some stops.  Hopefully they make enough of them.

 

Honestly, I come to this thread to see practice week news and things about THIS WEEK, but it devolves into every other oh woe is me the Bills suck threads and I just get tired of reading it. I'm in this thread for news, not Dr. Phil.

Scott you are incorrect in saying I give the Bills no chance of winning. 

 

In numerous post I've said the Bills can win. More specifically,  I gave the Bills about a 35% chance of winning. 

 

I also think past results do play a role in sports. How much is debatable. I don't think it's totally accurate to say last year is last year. The Bengals already have a winning formula vs the Bills. They know they can beat the Bills. I'm sure they are ultra confident going into this game. That doesn't equate to a win but it likely gives them a psychology advantage; perhaps subconsciously. 

 

The Bills on the other hand have to prove they are a better team. Perhaps that gives them extra motivation? Perhaps it creates more doubt? 

 

Hard to know the effects of previous games. But to dismiss them seems inaccurate. I'm pretty sure each coaching staff has analyzed the heck out of last year's game. Trying to learn from it, get an edge from it, etc ...

[BillsFan130]

24 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

If the Bills play their best, no team in the NFL, Bengals included can beat them.

A healthy bills team, I would agree as we saw that first hand against Miami.

 

We will see with the injuries/new players added to the team 

 

 

[mannc]

1 hour ago, Scott7975 said:

 

If they get a two td lead at the beginning of the game then they are going to get that same two td lead whether you defer or not.  Deferring is not a small advantage. It almost always gives you a chance to score twice in a row.  

That’s simply not true

[NewEra]

I’ll just leave this here.

 

 

[Royale with Cheese]

31 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Scott you are incorrect in saying I give the Bills no chance of winning. 

 

In numerous post I've said the Bills can win. More specifically,  I gave the Bills about a 35% chance of winning. 

 

I also think past results do play a role in sports. How much is debatable. I don't think it's totally accurate to say last year is last year. The Bengals already have a winning formula vs the Bills. They know they can beat the Bills. I'm sure they are ultra confident going into this game. That doesn't equate to a win but it likely gives them a psychology advantage; perhaps subconsciously. 

 

The Bills on the other hand have to prove they are a better team. Perhaps that gives them extra motivation? Perhaps it creates more doubt? 

 

Hard to know the effects of previous games. But to dismiss them seems inaccurate. I'm pretty sure each coaching staff has analyzed the heck out of last year's game. Trying to learn from it, get an edge from it, etc ...

 

The Bills beat the Chiefs in Arrowhead in 2021 and 2022 after losing to them in the playoffs.  I don't think the Bengals beating us last year is still on their minds, it wasn't against KC.

[Success]

5 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I’ll just leave this here.

 

 

 

He gives this team such an attitude & edge.  We fortunately have a few "culture changers" on the team, but he's at the top of the list. 

 

It's very important to me that we not just win a SB - but win one while he is still playing here.  One of my favorite Bills of all time.

 

[mannc]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

Really?  If by "a lot" you mean maybe 2% of the time or less, then sure...pretty much every game I watch(and I watch a lot of them), the team that wins the coin toss defers(except in OT of course).  It gives you a known quantity you can use to your advantage(ie, getting the ball out of the half, taking more time to run clock so you have 2 possessions in a row) versus an unknown quantity(not knowing when you'll get the ball in the second half).

 

Control of the ball ALWAYS beats chasing the ball, 100% of the time.

Why isn't control of the ball at the start of the game as valuable as control of the ball at the start of the second half?

 

Why is not knowing when you'll get the ball in the second half worse than not knowing when you'll get the ball in the first half?  Isn't knowing you'll get the ball to start the game a "known quantity" too? 

 

Why would it matter to your end of half strategy whether you were getting the ball to start the second half?  Aren't you always going to try to score with as little time left on the clock as possible to prevent the other team from having a chance to score before halftime?   

 

I don't actually know how often teams defer vs. taking the ball to start the game, but it doesn't matter.  NFL coaches are mostly followers who often do things a certain way for no very good reason.  As far as I can tell, this preference to defer is all based on a 2019 article by Warren Sharp, in which he concluded--based on games played from 2016-2019--that there was a very slight advantage to be gained by deferring.  That advantage is so minor that it can easily be offset by things like weather or the quality of a team's offense or defense.  I've never seen Sharp's research updated so it wouldn't be surprising if an analysis of more recent NFL games came to a different conclusion.  One thing that's clear is that there is no evidence to support gaining a clear advantage by deferring.            

Edited November 2, 2023 by mannc

[NewEra]

10 minutes ago, Success said:

 

He gives this team such an attitude & edge.  We fortunately have a few "culture changers" on the team, but he's at the top of the list. 

 

It's very important to me that we not just win a SB - but win one while he is still playing here.  One of my favorite Bills of all time.

 

💯 

 

Stefon Diggs really is HIM.

 

I believe that 

[Big Turk]

12 minutes ago, mannc said:

Why isn't control of the ball at the start of the game as valuable as control of the ball at the start of the second half?

 

Why is not knowing when you'll get the ball in the second half worse than not knowing when you'll get the ball in the first half?  Isn't knowing you'll get the ball to start the game a "known quantity" too? 

 

Why would it matter to your end of half strategy whether you were getting the ball to start the second half?  Aren't you always going to try to score with as little time left on the clock as possible to prevent the other team from having a chance to score before halftime?   

 

I don't actually know how often teams defer vs. taking the ball to start the game, but it doesn't matter.  NFL coaches are mostly followers who often do things a certain way for no very good reason.  As far as I can tell, this preference to defer is all based on a 2019 article by Warren Sharp, in which he concluded--based on games played from 2016-2019--that there was a very slight advantage to be gained by deferring.  That advantage is so minor that it can easily be offset by things like weather or the quality of a team's offense or defense.  I've never seen Sharp's research updated so it wouldn't be surprising if an analysis of more recent NFL games came to a different conclusion.  One thing that's clear is that there is no evidence to support gaining a clear advantage by deferring.            

 

Statistically it is backed up because teams will on average score an extra point when they defer kicks to the 2nd half and also have a 12% chance of stealing a possession. In all of the games I watched this year I think maybe once or twice did I see a team win the toss and take the ball first. It just almost never happens.

 

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/opening-kickoff-receive-or-defer/

Edited November 2, 2023 by Big Turk

[Herc11]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

LMAO! If he thinks this is bad just wait...

 

 

Gat dang that dude has some tree trunks for legs

[Big Turk]

1 minute ago, Herc11 said:

Gat dang that dude has some tree trunks for legs

 

Yeah...dude has a future in bodybuilding if he wants post NFL career...that is just elite, elite genetics right there.