4 drives ended by dropped passes

[PBF81]

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

There is simply no way to backfill for losing your best players. No GM in the entire NFL has a replacement for Matt Milano sitting on the bench.  

 

Once again I never said that there was.  I am specifically discussing the impact of the replacement, which should be obvious since I've stated it in other terms at least a half-dozen times in this thread so far. 

 

I'll give you some data though to validate the point.  

 

Going from White to Elam is huge.  But the reason is a draft failure.  And once again, we were without White last season so that's not a good comp.  He hasn't been great even when has been on the field and hasn't been classic White since last '21.  

 

Going from Milano to whomever (you fill it in), is also resultant from not having better depth, or even another starting LB at anywhere near that level.   All we have is average.  And all of those claiming how well Bernard has been playing are going to see the impact of Bernard now taking over entirely for Milano and the failure to address the LB situation since Lorax left, ... by none other than Beane since that's his responsibility.  For purposes of argument, if I could attribute it to our equipment guy since I don't care, but if we're going to be honest, that drop in talent level is on Beane.  

 

 

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Oh and Jones is having surgery. That is confirmed. He is done for the year. 

 

Thanks for the heads up!!   

 

We'll see how Ford does in his place, and on that note, that loss isn't nearly as impactful as you make out.  The performance drop from Jones to Ford isn't anywhere near what it's going to be from Milano to whomever.  

 

In fact, if you look at Ford's first five seasons, he has more sacks, nearly double the TFL, and more QB Pressures in 13 fewer starts.  He's also 28 to Jones' 32.  The drop there is hardly what it will be from Milano to whomever.  I'm also far from sold that Jones didn't simply shoot a load in the beginning of the season.  I mean he was on pace for absolutely shattering anything he's ever done, which I would find to be ridiculously unlikely.  It's quite possible that his play for most of the rest of the season would be where it's been throughout his career, namely pretty average.  

 

 

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

And I never changed my view on bottom dwellers. That was always specific to the defense that finished the game yesterday. I was very clear about that. They won't have to put up with that D. They have some guys to come back. But they have lost two first team all pros and another key defensive starter for the year. Show me another unit (offense or defense) in the entire league that has already lost that level of player for the season. 

 

Every team has injuries. Not every team has this. And when teams do they generally struggle to make the playoffs. I will say something you will probably agree with now.... I think the Bills are shooting for a wildcard at this point. These are back breaking injuries on D.

 

OK, on that note, I just looked. 

 

Not one other team in the league allowed more 1st-Downs for their opponent yesterday.  

 

Only one team allowed more yards and that was the pathetic Giants' D which allowed 524 to the Fins.  

 

Only one team allowed a greater Time-of-Possession, that was the pathetic Pats.  

 

So what your'e asking everyone to believe is that our D, as fielded yesterday, was all but literally the worst D in the the league yesterday.  

 

Sorry, no sale!  

 

 

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

So what your'e asking everyone to believe is that our D, as fielded yesterday, was all but literally the worst D in the the league yesterday.  

 

Sorry, no sale!  

 

 

 

By the end of the game - yep it was. I have kept saying it - the D that was on the field by the end of that game (when 14 of the 25 points came) was a bottom dweller type defense talent wise.

 

That is NOT the D they will have to play with the rest of the way. They have some guys, especially up front and Benford, to return. But if that D at the end yesterday was what they had to go with the rest of the way the season would basically be dead already. 

 

And I will give you Elam at this stage looks like a huge bust. That is on the GM. Again, I have never even got close to arguing Beane is blameless. Just that down as many guys as the Bills were yesterday is an injury issue not a drafting one. 

[PBF81]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

By the end of the game - yep it was. I have kept saying it - the D that was on the field by the end of that game (when 14 of the 25 points came) was a bottom dweller type defense talent wise.

 

That is NOT the D they will have to play with the rest of the way. They have some guys, especially up front and Benford, to return. But if that D at the end yesterday was what they had to go with the rest of the way the season would basically be dead already. 

 

And I will give you Elam at this stage looks like a huge bust. That is on the GM. Again, I have never even got close to arguing Beane is blameless. Just that down as many guys as the Bills were yesterday is an injury issue not a drafting one. 

 

We'll see how it unfolds.  Interesting to say the least.   

 

 

[GunnerBill]

Just now, PBF81 said:

 

We'll see how it unfolds.  Interesting to say the least.   

 

 

It isn't interesting to me it is gutting. I still think they can make the playoffs but you need elite players to win Superbowls. And for the third year in a row (White in 21, Von in 22, Milano in 23) the Bills have lost an elite player to a season ending injury. What makes it worse is just as Tre was finding his best form (Washington and Miami it was the old Tre) we lost him for the year too. 

 

It sucks. 

[PBF81]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

It isn't interesting to me it is gutting. I still think they can make the playoffs but you need elite players to win Superbowls. And for the third year in a row (White in 21, Von in 22, Milano in 23) the Bills have lost an elite player to a season ending injury. What makes it worse is just as Tre was finding his best form (Washington and Miami it was the old Tre) we lost him for the year too. 

 

It sucks. 

 

Here's what I see, namely that the teams that have won it recently, had the 16th ranked D and DFL ranked passing D, but the #1 Offense.  (KC last season) 

 

... and the 15th ranked D in '21 along with the 7th ranked Offense.  (Rams)  

 

And in '20, the 3rd ranked Offense and 8th ranked Defense featuring the 21st ranked passing D and a 43-year old QB.  

 

We should be able to do it with an average D and the #1 offense, a QB in his prime and the most versatile QB in the game today, and I see no reason whatsoever why we shouldn't have the #1 Offense in the league this season given the additions/improvements starting with a solid OL.  

 

Now of Torrence, Diggs, and Dawkins go down, then we can talk further.  

 

Not expecting you to agree, just saying that's what I see.  

 

 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Here's what I see, namely that the teams that have won it recently, had the 16th ranked D and DFL ranked passing D, but the #1 Offense.  (KC last season) 

 

... and the 15th ranked D in '21 along with the 7th ranked Offense.  (Rams)  

 

And in '20, the 3rd ranked Offense and 8th ranked Defense featuring the 21st ranked passing D and a 43-year old QB.  

 

We should be able to do it with an average D and the #1 offense, a QB in his prime and the most versatile QB in the game today, and I see no reason whatsoever why we shouldn't have the #1 Offense in the league this season given the additions/improvements starting with a solid OL.  

 

Now of Torrence, Diggs, and Dawkins go down, then we can talk further.  

 

Not expecting you to agree, just saying that's what I see.  

 

 

 

I see the point. But I see elite players as more important than overall rankings. If the O got hot and played at its best would we have a chance? Sure. But man those 3 season long losses really hurt.

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

so....a SECOND   drop that was negated by penalty was still "game killing"?

 

No. My post was referring to one drop from Davis and one drop from Knox. Repeat offenders killing two drives on simple catch opportunities. I don't know what else to tell you, they were backbreaking mistakes.

 

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

The elite WR1's contested pass ending up as an INT was the actual play that killed them

 

Yeah and I said earlier in the thread Diggs' missed opportunity was the biggest momentum swing of them all. But he is an elite WR1. I'm not saying I expect any player to make zero mistakes, that is totally unrealistic. But when you don't offer much on a play to play basis, the mistakes become more glaring. A WR2 either has to be elite in one area or play fundamentally sound football on an extremely consistent level (a WR1 typically gives you both). Give me Jaylen Waddle or Robert Woods (in his prime). Different types of WR but both give you legit #2 ability. Davis is neither. He's a boom or bust WR that has zero elite traits, doesn't run the full route tree, and misses too many of the easy plays to be a reliable #2 option. In a normal offense with an average QB I honestly think he would be a non-factor.

 

For 3.5 quarters before the game got out of hand Allen throwing the ball to Diggs was pretty much our entire offense. Once again, for the 3rd season in a row, everybody else lower on the depth chart is pitching in a disappointing season with a high degree of inconsistency.

[Coach Tuesday]

That drop by Gabe Davis-Scantling-Bey was an absolute killer yesterday.

[PBF81]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I see the point. But I see elite players as more important than overall rankings. If the O got hot and played at its best would we have a chance? Sure. But man those 3 season long losses really hurt.

 

If KC can do it with only one player that logged more than 6 sacks and only one player that made the Pro-Bowl on D, and on 11 total team INTs and not one DB that logged more than 3, and a defensive roster of relative mediocrity other than for Chris Jones, ranking DFL in pass D, and with only Kelce, Smith-Shuster, and Pacheco as notable names on offense, besides Mahomes of course, then we can do it with what we have here now.  

 

Coaching being equal, I'll take Allen, Diggs, Davis, Kincaid, Knox, Cook, Harris, and Murray any day over what KC had last season.  Any day.  

 

If we can't put it together with that offensively speaking, then it's well past time to start looking at coaching, and beyond the OC.  

 

 

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

If KC can do it with only one player that logged more than 6 sacks and only one player that made the Pro-Bowl on D, and on 11 total team INTs and not one DB that logged more than 3, and a defensive roster of relative mediocrity other than for Chris Jones, ranking DFL in pass D, and with only Kelce, Smith-Shuster, and Pacheco as notable names on offense, besides Mahomes of course, then we can do it with what we have here now.  

 

Coaching being equal, I'll take Allen, Diggs, Davis, Kincaid, Knox, Cook, Harris, and Murray any day over what KC had last season.  Any day.  

 

If we can't put it together with that offensively speaking, then it's well past time to start looking at coaching, and beyond the OC.  

 

 

 

They had an elite guard and an elite center too. Plus Mahomes, Kelce and Jones. That is 5 elite guys. 

 

We have Allen and Diggs. Maybe Greg, Ed, Von can get to that level. You generally need 4 to 5 genuine elite guys. One us normally (but doesn't have to be) your QB. The positions of the othets matters less.

[PBF81]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They had an elite guard and an elite center too. Plus Mahomes, Kelce and Jones. That is 5 elite guys. 

 

We have Allen and Diggs. Maybe Greg, Ed, Von can get to that level. You generally need 4 to 5 genuine elite guys. One us normally (but doesn't have to be) your QB. The positions of the othets matters less.

 

An elite guard and center on D?  

 

Hmmm ... 

 

Come on now, you know that we were talking about the D here.  

 

But for the record, you're saying now that we're incapable of having the #1 Offense because of our OL then?  
 

Help me understand.  

 

 

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

No. My post was referring to one drop from Davis and one drop from Knox. Repeat offenders killing two drives on simple catch opportunities. I don't know what else to tell you, they were backbreaking mistakes.

 

 

Yeah and I said earlier in the thread Diggs' missed opportunity was the biggest momentum swing of them all. But he is an elite WR1. I'm not saying I expect any player to make zero mistakes, that is totally unrealistic. But when you don't offer much on a play to play basis, the mistakes become more glaring. A WR2 either has to be elite in one area or play fundamentally sound football on an extremely consistent level (a WR1 typically gives you both). Give me Jaylen Waddle or Robert Woods (in his prime). Different types of WR but both give you legit #2 ability. Davis is neither. He's a boom or bust WR that has zero elite traits, doesn't run the full route tree, and misses too many of the easy plays to be a reliable #2 option. In a normal offense with an average QB I honestly think he would be a non-factor.

 

For 3.5 quarters before the game got out of hand Allen throwing the ball to Diggs was pretty much our entire offense. Once again, for the 3rd season in a row, everybody else lower on the depth chart is pitching in a disappointing season with a high degree of inconsistency.

 

So a 4 point lead in the beginning of the 3rQ is so insurmountable by these Buffalo Bills that a drop 1 minute into the half is "backbreaking"?  That's laughable!

 

"Out of hand"?  It was 11-7 with 8 minutes left!  Then both teams traded touchdowns--the Bills mainly due to the efforts of Davis/Allen....this can't be disputed---I Iiterally spelled it out for you upstream with each catch listed and the situation at the catch. 

 

Look, I get that you painted yourself into this corner with the totally unforced error of saying Davis was a backbreaker in that game yesterday---and I admire the moxie of willing to senselessly  die on this bizarre hill---but Davis had the most impact in keeping this game within reach down the stretch. HE was clutch in the 4th Q.

 

Hang in there....

[BillsVet]

4 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

That drop by Gabe Davis-Scantling-Bey was an absolute killer yesterday.

 

 

I'm thinking we need to add the Alvin Harper reference: Gabe Davis-Scantling-Bey-Harper.  

 

All cut from the same WR cloth. 

[GunnerBill]

9 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

An elite guard and center on D?  

 

Hmmm ... 

 

Come on now, you know that we were talking about the D here.  

 

But for the record, you're saying now that we're incapable of having the #1 Offense because of our OL then?  
 

Help me understand.  

 

 

No. I think you need 4 or 5 elite players to win a Superbowl. I think that matters more than where you O or D ranks statistically. Traditionally that is what Superbowl winners have had. Almost always one of those is your QB. The positions of the rest don't matter as much but you need them. I worry we just lost one of ours and potentially a second of them (if the last game and 3/4s of Tre was really him back to his best). I don't know if Von can get back to elite level this season off an ACL. Which leaves us with two healthy elite players - Allen and Diggs. History tells you to win a Superbowl you need more than 2. Maybe Ed Oliver or Greg Rousseau keep up their fantastic starts and by the playoffs we are talking about them in that category. Maybe Von gets back there. Not sure I see anyone else on the roster who we might talk about in that way by January. Feels like we are now light on elite players compared to the norm for Superbowl winners.

 

 

[John from Riverside]

On 10/8/2023 at 10:21 AM, Alphadawg7 said:

Plenty of other factors from injuries to horrific refs that contributed to this loss, but we had 4 drives ended by dropped passes and that’s all in our control.  Would have been 5 too but a penalty negated the play.  
 

Cook, Knox, Diggs, Davis all dropped passes that killed our drives which would have been first downs, with Davis having a second drop for a first down erased off the stat sheet by a penalty.

 

Feels like the only people who showed up to play with any fire today was Allen, Diggs and AJE.  Milano and Daquan get a pass as they were hurt.

 

But the dropped passes in a game where refs were working against us were just killers.

I think, lost in all of this is the fact that our offense of line did not play well against the jags
 

This surprised me, because I really thought that the bills did pretty well against the dominant lions. We have faced so far like the Jets and Washington commanders.

 

I think what Dorsey is trying to do. The running game is directly involved in that this year. If we are not balanced, then we have problems we want to run the ball.

11 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

There is simply no way to backfill for losing your best players. No GM in the entire NFL has a replacement for Matt Milano sitting on the bench. 

 

Oh and Jones is having surgery. That is confirmed. He is done for the year. 

 

And I never changed my view on bottom dwellers. That was always specific to the defense that finished the game yesterday. I was very clear about that. They won't have to put up with that D. They have some guys to come back. But they have lost two first team all pros and another key defensive starter for the year. Show me another unit (offense or defense) in the entire league that has already lost that level of player for the season. 

 

Every team has injuries. Not every team has this. And when teams do they generally struggle to make the playoffs. I will say something you will probably agree with now.... I think the Bills are shooting for a wildcard at this point. These are back breaking injuries on D.

I have more hopes for Milanos back up the most. I realize that he’s just a rookie, but I loved him coming out of college and think that he is going to be a very good player in time. Is he ready right now to completely filled with Milano did for us Sadly no I don’t think so but I think he can give us some of it but he’s not gonna get any better by sitting on the sideline they have to play him

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, John from Riverside said:

 

I have more hopes for Milanos back up the most. I realize that he’s just a rookie, but I loved him coming out of college and think that he is going to be a very good player in time. Is he ready right now to completely filled with Milano did for us Sadly no I don’t think so but I think he can give us some of it but he’s not gonna get any better by sitting on the sideline they have to play him

 

Sure. Williams isn't a lost cause because he struggled on Sunday. But you are losing the BEST cover linebacker in football right now. You can have the best general manager on the planet and you still won't have a day 1, direct replacement for a player like that. 

 

That is my point in this. Championship teams have a handful of elite players. When they don't they are not championship teams even if they still have a decent roster overall. The Bills have 5 guys on this roster that have been first team all pro in their careers. Four of them with the Bills (Von with Denver). Of those five we have just lost two in two weeks to season ending injuries. 

[Shemp]

I see the complete failure of the running game as the culprit vs. Jacksonville.It reduced the Bills to a one dimensional team and that's never good, especially with all the injuries on d.

[Bermuda Triangle]

22 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

lol "a killer"...with 13;52 left in the 3rd Q down by 4???

 

this place...

In a one possession game, every mistake is magnified, and each and every drive killing play is huge.

[Solomon Grundy]

8 minutes ago, Shemp said:

I see the complete failure of the running game as the culprit vs. Jacksonville.It reduced the Bills to a one dimensional team and that's never good, especially with all the injuries on d.

HOME RUN!! The Bills offense, the past couple of weeks, seemed to be more potent with a running game threat. I'd honestly would like to see Harris/Murray start a game than Cook. Those DBs don't want to tackle the more powerful RBs on a consistent basis

[Pete]

On 10/8/2023 at 1:21 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

Plenty of other factors from injuries to horrific refs that contributed to this loss, but we had 4 drives ended by dropped passes and that’s all in our control.  Would have been 5 too but a penalty negated the play.  
 

Cook, Knox, Diggs, Davis all dropped passes that killed our drives which would have been first downs, with Davis having a second drop for a first down erased off the stat sheet by a penalty.

 

Feels like the only people who showed up to play with any fire today was Allen, Diggs and AJE.  Milano and Daquan get a pass as they were hurt.

 

But the dropped passes in a game where refs were working against us were just killers.

4 Josh drives ended by drops.  Inexcusable.

Bills had 19 missed tackles.  Jacksonville had 3.

 

Football 101.  If you can’t catch and if you can’t tackle, you are going to lose, even if you are fortunate to have Josh Allen as your QB

[Mr. WEO]

22 minutes ago, Bermuda Triangle said:

In a one possession game, every mistake is magnified, and each and every drive killing play is huge.

 

 

That may be true, but Gabe balled out in the 4th.  The game wasn't over in the beginning of the second half....

[Billsfan1972]

24 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

That may be true, but Gabe balled out in the 4th.  The game wasn't over in the beginning of the second half....

What is "balled out".  A nice sideline catch, which 95% of NFL #2 receivers catch and catching balls that hit him perfectly in two hands when thrown to them?  

 

I love receivers and the love they get when catching simple balls.  It is the tough receptions that warrant mention, or taking the hit and holding on, or a real good toe tap.  

 

Gabe made the catches he should have and dropped a very easy one at a bad time.

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, Billsfan1972 said:

What is "balled out".  A nice sideline catch, which 95% of NFL #2 receivers catch and catching balls that hit him perfectly in two hands when thrown to them?  

 

I love receivers and the love they get when catching simple balls.  It is the tough receptions that warrant mention, or taking the hit and holding on, or a real good toe tap.  

 

Gabe made the catches he should have and dropped a very easy one at a bad time.

 

you can repeat this over and over--won't be more true.  11-7 beginning of the half. 

 

"balled out" in that those catches set up/were TDs.  I posted this already, but you seem not to comprehend what happened: Davis had 3 receptions for 72 yards on 2 drives in the last 8 minutes--including TDs of 9 and 9 yards back to back after the OPI by Diggs. 

 

That catch at the 3 was fantastic and the TD that was nullified was through smothering coverage while falling backwards--calling them "simple balls" is proof that you either didn't watch the game, or you just have a hard on for Davis. 

 

But.....Because I'm not a cruel man, I will now help you:

 

https://www.buffalobills.com/video/gabe-davis-climbs-way-upstairs-for-29-yard-toe-tap-catch-bills-vs-jaguars-london

 

https://www.buffalobills.com/video/every-gabe-davis-catch-from-100-yard-game-week-5

 

Diggs was nowhere in that 4th Q--1 catch for a 1st down, OPI, lost an catch for an INT, fumbled at the end. 

Edited October 10, 2023 by Mr. WEO

[PBF81]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

No. I think you need 4 or 5 elite players to win a Superbowl. I think that matters more than where you O or D ranks statistically. Traditionally that is what Superbowl winners have had. Almost always one of those is your QB. The positions of the rest don't matter as much but you need them. I worry we just lost one of ours and potentially a second of them (if the last game and 3/4s of Tre was really him back to his best). I don't know if Von can get back to elite level this season off an ACL. Which leaves us with two healthy elite players - Allen and Diggs. History tells you to win a Superbowl you need more than 2. Maybe Ed Oliver or Greg Rousseau keep up their fantastic starts and by the playoffs we are talking about them in that category. Maybe Von gets back there. Not sure I see anyone else on the roster who we might talk about in that way by January. Feels like we are now light on elite players compared to the norm for Superbowl winners.

 

 

 

Well, perhaps you're right, we'll see.  

 

But it also helps if your coaching staff can make optimal use of the offensive players that you do have.  We haven't seen that on McD's watch.  

 

Having said that however, Jones isn't elite and neither Milano nor White were drafted by Beane.

 

While you're loathe to criticize Beane, that sounds 100% like #Beanethingz.  

 

We can't keep claiming what you just said, then insulating Beane from the discussion about it.  

 

That makes zero sense.  

 

 

Edited October 10, 2023 by PBF81

[Billsfan1972]

16 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

you can repeat this over and over--won't be more true.  11-7 beginning of the half. 

 

"balled out" in that those catches set up/were TDs.  I posted this already, but you seem not to comprehend what happened: Davis had 3 receptions for 72 yards on 2 drives in the last 8 minutes--including TDs of 9 and 9 yards back to back after the OPI by Diggs. 

 

That catch at the 3 was fantastic and the TD that was nullified was through smothering coverage while falling backwards--calling them "simple balls" is proof that you either didn't watch the game, or you just have a hard on for Davis. 

 

But.....Because I'm not a cruel man, I will now help you:

 

https://www.buffalobills.com/video/gabe-davis-climbs-way-upstairs-for-29-yard-toe-tap-catch-bills-vs-jaguars-london

 

https://www.buffalobills.com/video/every-gabe-davis-catch-from-100-yard-game-week-5

 

Diggs was nowhere in that 4th Q--1 catch for a 1st down, OPI, lost an catch for an INT, fumbled at the end. 

They were nice catches on perfect passes from Allen.  A professional football player should be able to jump up and catch a football (part of the reason you have tall receivers).  The TD pass was on closer look just a perfect pass by Allen and yep Gabe made the catch.

 

I want him to succeed, but to me he just made catches and good for him (the one drop came at a bad time too).

[Straight Hucklebuck]

The Bills ran the ball 3 times in the second half. 

 

The score was 11-7 for over a quarter of the game.  

 

And McDermott wants to talk about how they didn't establish the line of scrimmage? 

 

They didn't try to help the defense at all as the time of possession became more and more lopsided as the game went on. 

 

We get these lip-service answers from the Coach. 

 

 

[Tisker A Tasker]

Dropping passes is what happens when you're sleepy.

[PBF81]

On 10/8/2023 at 1:21 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

Cook, Knox, Diggs, Davis all dropped passes that killed our drives which would have been first downs, with Davis having a second drop for a first down erased off the stat sheet by a penalty.

 

Which drive was it that ended on a Davis drop, I can't find it?  Was just looking.  

 

He's got one drop this season, I'm assuming, per this, that it was in this game.  

 

 

[GunnerBill]

49 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

neither Milano nor White were drafted by Beane.

 

While you're loathe to criticize Beane, that sounds 100% like #Beanethingz.  

 

We can't keep claiming what you just said, then insulating Beane from the discussion about it.  

 

That makes zero sense.  

 

No I am not loathe to criticise Beane. Indeed the Milano and White being the only two difference makers (beyond Josh) drafted by this regime and neither of them were drafted by Beane is a point I have made multiple times on this board. I was making that point before you even showed up around here. 

 

The point I am loathe to criticise Beane on is "we lost yesterday because of depth." We didn't. We lost because we were down starters at 5 spots on defense by the 11th play of the game and among those 5 are two first team all pro level guys. By the end of the game (when the Jags scored 14 points) we were down a further starter and two further backups at DE (and we were a key backup down before the game too) and our nickel was hobbled. That isn't a GM problem. That's an injury problem. 

 

If you want to criticise Brandon Beane for:

1. Missing on Kaiir Elam;

2. Trusting two old safeties coming off injuries to get back to their best;

3. Not, to this point, having drafted any proven elite level difference makers beyond Josh Allen in six drafts as GM;

 

Then I wouldn't dispute ANY of those points. But they are wider points. They don't go to Sunday specifically which was a perfect storm of injury issues that no team in the NFL against a decent standard of opposition would be able to overcome. 

[Billsfan1972]

46 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Which drive was it that ended on a Davis drop, I can't find it?  Was just looking.  

 

He's got one drop this season, I'm assuming, per this, that it was in this game.  

 

 

Second half, second down and would have been in FG range.  Pretty sure this sequennce.

 

1st & 10 at BUF 10

(9:30 - 3rd) J.Allen pass deep right to S.Diggs to JAX 42 for 48 yards (A.Cisco).

1st & 10 at JAX 42

(8:56 - 3rd) (No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Allen pass short right to J.Cook pushed ob at JAX 42 for no gain (F.Oluokun).

2nd & 10 at JAX 42

(8:16 - 3rd) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass incomplete short right to G.Davis.

3rd & 10 at JAX 42

(8:10 - 3rd) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to D.Knox. Penalty on BUF-C.McGovern, Offensive Holding, declined.

4th & 10 at JAX 42

(8:03 - 3rd) S.Martin punts 34 yards to JAX 8, Center-R.Ferguson, fair catch by J.Agnew.

[PBF81]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

No I am not loathe to criticise Beane. Indeed the Milano and White being the only two difference makers (beyond Josh) drafted by this regime and neither of them were drafted by Beane is a point I have made multiple times on this board. I was making that point before you even showed up around here. 

 

The point I am loathe to criticise Beane on is "we lost yesterday because of depth." We didn't. We lost because we were down starters at 5 spots on defense by the 11th play of the game and among those 5 are two first team all pro level guys. By the end of the game (when the Jags scored 14 points) we were down a further starter and two further backups at DE (and we were a key backup down before the game too) and our nickel was hobbled. That isn't a GM problem. That's an injury problem. 

 

If you want to criticise Brandon Beane for:

1. Missing on Kaiir Elam;

2. Trusting two old safeties coming off injuries to get back to their best;

3. Not, to this point, having drafted any proven elite level difference makers beyond Josh Allen in six drafts as GM;

 

Then I wouldn't dispute ANY of those points. But they are wider points. They don't go to Sunday specifically which was a perfect storm of injury issues that no team in the NFL against a decent standard of opposition would be able to overcome. 

 

OK, then let's take this discussion a little further. 

 

You originally said, leading to my post above, that a team typically needs 4-5 elite players to win a Super Bowl.  

 

Quote

I think you need 4 or 5 elite players to win a Superbowl. ... Almost always one of those is your QB.

 

Given that neither Milano nor White were drafted by Beane, and those are the two players that everyone's crying about the most, and given that Jones wasn't a Beane draftee either, who then are the players that Beane has drafted, apart from Allen of course, that are elite and that therefore we'd need to win a Super Bowl?  

 

Because if one looks through our list of draftees by Beane, none match your description of being "elite."  

 

So the follow-on question is then, at what point does one suggest that Beane simply isn't cutting it in that way and that perhaps it's time for a change?  

 

You are not entirely loathe to criticize Beane, you should know me well enough to recognize sarcasm, but I've also never heard you suggest that perhaps he's not up to the task at hand.  

 

What many people see is a team that is in fact succeeding largely due to the very high-risk/high-reward drafting of Allen, an expensive market-priced WR as a free agent, and draftees that were here upon Beane's arrival.  

 

I'm curious what your answers to those questions are, without hedging.  ... in all sincerety.  

 

And by all means, if you think that he's drafted an elite player since his very first selection upon arriving, who is that player?  

 

The most successful teams in the league are drafting them.  Why aren't we.  (rhetorical)   It seems like an obvious answer to me.  

 

 

2 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Second half, second down and would have been in FG range.  Pretty sure this sequennce.

 

1st & 10 at BUF 10

(9:30 - 3rd) J.Allen pass deep right to S.Diggs to JAX 42 for 48 yards (A.Cisco).

1st & 10 at JAX 42

(8:56 - 3rd) (No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Allen pass short right to J.Cook pushed ob at JAX 42 for no gain (F.Oluokun).

2nd & 10 at JAX 42

(8:16 - 3rd) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass incomplete short right to G.Davis.

3rd & 10 at JAX 42

(8:10 - 3rd) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to D.Knox. Penalty on BUF-C.McGovern, Offensive Holding, declined.

4th & 10 at JAX 42

(8:03 - 3rd) S.Martin punts 34 yards to JAX 8, Center-R.Ferguson, fair catch by J.Agnew.

 

Gotta be another, that one didn't end the drive though.  

 

 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Given that neither Milano nor White were drafted by Beane, and those are the two players that everyone's crying about the most, and given that Jones wasn't a Beane draftee either, who then are the players that Beane has drafted, apart from Allen of course, that are elite and that therefore we'd need to win a Super Bowl?  

Because if one looks through our list of draftees by Beane, none match your description of being "elite."  

And by all means, if you think that he's drafted an elite player since his very first selection upon arriving, who is that player?  

 

 

Grouped these together because they are, essentially, the same question. I have been abundantly clear multiple times that I think the answer is he hasn't (well, Tyler Bass, but I don't count kickers).

 

I think there are two guys though on the roster that he has drafted (excluding rookies for now) who could still make it to that category and who have always had the talent to do so - Ed Oliver and Greg Rousseau. Ed would be a 1st team all pro this year based on the first 5 weeks, no question about it. Groot would get all pro votes. I think his future reputation depends as much on those guys delivering on their potential as it does on guys he hasn't picked yet. 

 

2 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

So the follow-on question is then, at what point does one suggest that Beane simply isn't cutting it in that way and that perhaps it's time for a change?  

 

This isn't straightforward because a) there is more to being a General Manager than drafting players - though no question it is a critical part of the job and b) because what Beane drafts very few of is outright busts. Elam looks like his first day 1 bust. Cody Ford was a day 2 bust. But he has avoided them for the most part. He drafts a lot of guys that can play and can be starters in the NFL. When compared to his peers that means he grades out pretty well overall... but has it been a factor in us being near and yet so far in terms of a championship? Yea it has. Would I fire him now? No I wouldn't. But then I am a stability guy and a patience guy. I think if in two years we are still saying after the 2023 class and a year of the 2024 class "man he hasn't found an elite player except Josh" then you have to either move him on or clear house below him and bring in a new scouting structure. 

[Billsfan1972]

26 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

 

 

 

Gotta be another, that one didn't end the drive though.  

 

 

That's the one.  Not third down, but a crucial play as the Bills would have been 1st down and in fg range at worst.  Regardless a drop.

[Boatdrinks]

3 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

The Bills ran the ball 3 times in the second half. 

 

The score was 11-7 for over a quarter of the game.  

 

And McDermott wants to talk about how they didn't establish the line of scrimmage? 

 

They didn't try to help the defense at all as the time of possession became more and more lopsided as the game went on. 

 

We get these lip-service answers from the Coach. 

 

 

Well, he’s not wrong. They didn’t establish it. They got beat on the LOS, which is why many of the plays were unsuccessful. There were other errors as well, ( drops etc ) but the line was not as impressive as they were vs MIA. 

[Billsfan1972]

1 minute ago, Boatdrinks said:

Well, he’s not wrong. They didn’t establish it. They got beat on the LOS, which is why many of the plays were unsuccessful. There were other errors as well, ( drops etc ) but the line was not as impressive as they were vs MIA. 

And every week after a winnable game is lost, this will be discussed.

 

The Bills need to simply approach every game as if they are going to hang 60 on the opposition.

[BigDingus]

The penalties suck, but I want to know how many were caused by injury replacements.

 

I wasn't paying attention during the game, but if you're missing your 2 best CBs, starting pass rusher, DT, and your best defender period, it'd be easy to see how they'd be a bit less disciplined.

 

Then again, we may have had very few penalties from those guys, and I'm just reaching. 

[Boatdrinks]

Just now, Billsfan1972 said:

And every week after a winnable game is lost, this will be discussed.

 

The Bills need to simply approach every game as if they are going to hang 60 on the opposition.

Oh , it certainly will. Going forward they will definitely need to rely more on the offense. That’s probably the best approach as the defense has  lost too many key parts to stay among the leagues best. 

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

2. Trusting two old safeties coming off injuries to get back to their best;

 

 

I mean we did sign Rapp, so I don't think its fair to say we "trusted 2 old safeties" as they did bring in more depth and help there and Rapp would start on several teams.  

 

Also, hard to fault any of Beanes decisions on the defense when after 4 weeks we were first in Interceptions, takeaways and sacks plus 2nd in points allowed.  This included being the only D that held the Miami offense in check all season.  

 

Injuries like you said are outside of his control, but even after being down those guys early, this defense still had only surrendered 11 points late into the 4th quarter while playing a fresher team in London.  So the depth and quality of the players on this team is a credit to Beane.  

 

I know you are not knocking Beane, just expanding on these comments.  

 

PS:  Not directed at you per se...but to those upset he "missed" on Elam...I mean is that even a fair assessment this soon?  Elam was solid and contributed down the stretch last year...so everyone is now saying we missed on him is based on him not being active yet this year and off his first game since last January.  But there is plenty of time for Elam to continue to develop and to call him a miss this early is premature IMHO.  

 

Go back a few weeks ago and most people were still saying we missed on AJE...yet here he is playing at a high level finally getting some chances to get real reps and get out from being buried.  For all we know, as the season goes on Elam may do just the same as she showed plenty of potential as a rookie last year and then got buried behind some pretty good corners in Tre, Benford, and Dane coming into this season as he still had some stuff to work on.  

[Billsfan1972]

24 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

Oh , it certainly will. Going forward they will definitely need to rely more on the offense. That’s probably the best approach as the defense has  lost too many key parts to stay among the leagues best. 

No we have McD as coach and he thinks the D will win it.  I've stated this over and over and until proven otherwise it remains a concern.

[PBF81]

21 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Grouped these together because they are, essentially, the same question. I have been abundantly clear multiple times that I think the answer is he hasn't (well, Tyler Bass, but I don't count kickers).

 

I think there are two guys though on the roster that he has drafted (excluding rookies for now) who could still make it to that category and who have always had the talent to do so - Ed Oliver and Greg Rousseau. Ed would be a 1st team all pro this year based on the first 5 weeks, no question about it. Groot would get all pro votes. I think his future reputation depends as much on those guys delivering on their potential as it does on guys he hasn't picked yet. 

 

Again, my question was ...  

Quote

who then are the players that Beane has drafted, apart from Allen of course, that are elite and that therefore we'd need to win a Super Bowl?  

 

Your response above. 

 

OK then, from what I'm reading, to date, the answer to the question is zero, barring the K, right?  

 

As to Groot, had his play over the first four games last season continued he'd have been not only a 1st-team, but All-Pro as well, and would have finished tied for 2nd in sacks a mere 2.5 sacks behind Bosa, 2nd in TFLs and tied for 14th in QBHits.  But he waned and went the opposite direction over the last dozen games, even in his next four before his injury.  AKA, ... didn't even approach happening.  

 

If Oliver continues his play linearly, then he'll have exceeded Aaron Donald's 2nd best season, and logged more TFLs than Donald ever logged, by 5, and will have exceeded Donald's QBHits numbers in all but 3 seasons.  Are you truly optimistic that that even comes close to occurring?  

 

While I'd be as excited as you to see this, the reality is that it's very unlikely to occur.  Oliver's had four seasons to post elite numbers and he's never come close.  Both players have been plagued with significant inconsistency in their game-to-game play.  In fairness Groot is only in his second season and did suffer an injury last season, but having said that, the phrase "injury prone" shouldn't be not of a concern re: him.  

 

And frankly, if they do, then that takes care of your hesitation regarding the requisite "elite players required to win the Super Bowl," right?   

 

In fact, given their level of play to date, why do concerns even exist then if they're both playing at elite levels?   I mean to date an "elite DT" and an "elite DE"?   That's what the going opinion here is now.  

 

 

21 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

This isn't straightforward because a) there is more to being a General Manager than drafting players - though no question it is a critical part of the job and b) because what Beane drafts very few of is outright busts. Elam looks like his first day 1 bust. Cody Ford was a day 2 bust. But he has avoided them for the most part. He drafts a lot of guys that can play and can be starters in the NFL. When compared to his peers that means he grades out pretty well overall... but has it been a factor in us being near and yet so far in terms of a championship? Yea it has. Would I fire him now? No I wouldn't. But then I am a stability guy and a patience guy. I think if in two years we are still saying after the 2023 class and a year of the 2024 class "man he hasn't found an elite player except Josh" then you have to either move him on or clear house below him and bring in a new scouting structure. 

 

So you'd give a GM 8 seasons, AFTER drafting a generational talent like Allen, who would then be 30 going into that next season, with an entirely new GM? 

 

"Starters in the NFL" isn't the standard here, by your definition it's "elite players."   Moss is a starter.  Zay Jones is a starter.  Brown is a starter.  Cook's a starter.  Davis is a starter and he's persona non grata here.  LOL  

 

We definitely have two different standards.  I would never even consider keeping a GM beyond five years if he hasn't produced a single elite player, the likes of which you state that we need 4-5 of to win a Super Bowl, particularly with a generational talent like Allen then merely rotting on the vine.  

 

To wit, if 4-5 elite players are needed, and if you want to avoid serious cap issues, you'll need to draft at least 3 of them.  One every 7 or 8 seasons will never see more than 2 on the field at the same time.  

 

You said this;  

Quote

When compared to his peers that means he grades out pretty well overall

 

Since our discussion revolves around his drafts, how so?  

 

I include his peers as the GMs of the teams that have been the most uniformly competitive over the past several seasons, not the GM of the Falcons, Texans, or Broncos.  

 

He's produced absolutely zero "elite players" in his drafts after his very first pick of Allen, which was a successful poke-n-hope for Allen, pending Groot & Oliver.  

 

Which GMs havent produced more than a single elite player in the last five drafts of theirs from '18 to '22?  

 

And for peers," again, let's consider the teams that have been our primary rivals over the past three seasons, namely KC, Philly, the Rams, Bengals, Niners for example.  AKA, teams that we'd need to beat if we want our elusive Lombardi.  

 

 

48 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

That's the one.  Not third down, but a crucial play as the Bills would have been 1st down and in fg range at worst.  Regardless a drop.

 

OK, but not fair to Davis to credit it as a drop then either given the stigma that exists for him, and in that game, particularly given his very significant contributions to 2 TD drives.  

 

Just sayin'.