The People v. McBeane (Alternatively, comparing SF to BUF since 2017)

[Dr.Sack]

Now do the Chiefs & Bengals. I’ll save you time - they have killed Beane in the draft since 2019. Hence why we have plateaued and they are the only two teams in the AFC who have beaten us in the playoffs. If Beane hits higher than 17/31 picks drafted since 2019-2022 still on team we are hoisting a Lombardi.

Edited August 25, 2023 by Dr.Sack

[Alphadawg7]

14 hours ago, FireChans said:

Topic. Title.

 

I'm gonna put some work in today boys and girls, so strap in.

 

To start: why am I comparing the Niners to the Bills?  Well our regime started in 2017, as did theirs. They have an offensive coach, we have a defensive coach. And neither team has won the big one.  So let's get started.

 

HC/GM records:

 

Shanny/Lynch: 52-46

McBeane: 62-35

 

Losing seasons:

 

Shanny/Lynch: 3

McBeane: 1

 

Playoff records:

 

Shanny/Lynch: 3 playoff appearances, 6-3, 1 SB appearance

McBeane: 5 playoff appearances, 4-5, 0 SB appearance

 

So there you have it. The numbers are pretty interesting. McD has run the steadier ship from a regular season perspective, but when SF makes the playoffs, they go a little deeper. 

 

I started with the results, because this is a results-based game. But let's enter the ultimate hindsight chamber. The DRAFT.

 

2017

 

Shanny/Lynch:

1 player still on the Niners (Kittle, All-Pro talent, 5th rounder)

Reuben Foster (#31) and Solomon Thomas (#3 overall) were tremendous busts

Some guys were fine placeholders and are still floating in the league (Witherspoon, Beathard, Trent Taylor)

 

McBeane:

3 players still on the Bills (Tre White, Pro Bowler, #27. Milano, All-Pro, 5th rounder. Dawkins, fat but an NFL starter, 2nd rounder.

No "busts" in the traditional sense for the Bills outside of Nate Peterman but he was a fifth rounder

ZayDay was mediocre here but has carved out a career.

Tanner Vallejo is a league STer, floating around as above.

 

2017 verdict:  McBeane in a landslide, tbh.

 

Editor's note: it was at this point, I realized I needed to speed this thing up, so the draft results will be briefer. If I do not point out a tremendous bust, it is because I do not believe there was one. I also decided to quit after 2021.

 

2018

 

Niners

Mike McGlinchey (#9, good player, no longer a Niner)

Fred Warner (#70, homerun pick, All-Pro)

 

Bills

Allen (#7, legit the best pick in Bills history)

Edmunds (#16, no longer a Bill, "good" player if you like scarecrows?)

Taron Johnson (#121, good player, starter)

Wyatt Teller (strike against the Bills bc "Cody Ford over me?")

 

2018 verdict: McBeane in a landslide again?  I'm thinking yes.

 

2019

 

Niners

Nick Bosa (homerun, #3)

Deebo (homerun)

Dre Greenlaw (starter, good pick)

 

Bills

Ed Oliver (meh pick but I guess he's fine)

Cody Ford (shoot me)

Devin Singletary (solid)

Dawson Knox (good-great pick)

 

2019 verdict: You just knew Shanny was gonna get this one. Cody Ford and Big Ed just can't compete.

 

2020:

 

Niners:

Kinlaw (kind of a sneaky bust?  #14, played 10 games in 2 years?)

Aiyuk (hit, #25 overall)

 

Bills:

Davis (hit)

Dane Jackson (started a year, so I will call this a hit)

Zack Moss (3rd round RB bust)

Not including STers

 

2020 verdict: I'm tempted to call this a push, Aiyuk is better than Gabe but is he better than Gabe+Dane?

 

2021:

 

Niners

Hufunga (massive hit, All-Pro, #180)

Aaron Banks (hit, starter, IOL)

Lance (gigantic bust?)

Trey Sermon (third round RB bust)

Elijah Mitchell (hit, late RB)

 

Bills

Rousseau (hit, not homerun)

Spencer Brown (I'm tempted to call this a hit, as he has basically started when healthy his whole career)

Hamlin (less tempted to call this a hit, objectively I think he was not that good last year when pressed into duty, obviously rooting for him)

 

2021 verdict: I think this has to go Niners. We have the positional value but I think they have the better players.

 

So what have we learned here?

 

I think the conclusions that we can draw is that our parallel team in the Bay Area has not been some dominant drafting vehicle or some league leader in success. In fact, our records and drafting history stack up considerably well against them. They have their fair share of first round busts, far more than the Bills have. And HIGH first round busts, Solomon Thomas and Trey Lance loom much larger than Ed Oliver/Tremaine Edmunds just being starter-level players. I think SF gets a little bit of a pass for their shakier seasons because of their QB turmoil, but by the same token, don't pass on Mahomes for Solomon Thomas and don't draft busts like Lance.

 

Now we can turn to the peanut gallery. The lesser minds who have almost certainly skipped to the last paragraph.  The @Gugny 's and @BringBackFergy's of the world.

Playoff record is a product of the NFC being the weaker conference compared to the AFC over the same period.

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, freddyjj said:

Ergghhh wait a minute.  Pretty sure the loss to KC in 2021 was in divisional round - aka 13 seconds.   Chiefs did not win AFC that year as they lost to Bengals at Arrowhead the next week.

 

Bills lost in AFC championship in 2020 playoffs at KC.  That game was not close.  

 

Yes, my bad.  Even more to the point then.  But yes, the '21 divisional game.  

 

The point remains the same.  

 

Thanks for catching that!!  

 

 

[MJS]

You have to consider the strength of the respective conferences too. The AFC has been a lot stronger for the past 2-3 years at least. This year it is even more pronounced.

 

I would not be terribly surprised if the 49ers make the Superbowl this year, but they wouldn't get close if they were in the AFC.

[folz]

15 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Less with more:  

 

Last three seasons ...

3-0 in the Wild Card Round  (2 of those wins against QBs Thompson and Jones)  

1-2 in the Divisional Round 

0-1 in the Conference Championship Game with the person we're talking about walking the Loss over to Reid on a silver platter at the end of the game.  

A supposed defensive expert allowing an average of 28 PPG, over 31 if we don't count the offensively bereft Pats, in our last four playoff games.  

Beating the Colts w/ Rivers despite being outplayed in that game.  

4-3 overall with two of those wins against marginal playoff teams and both with low-end QBs, and another win while being outplayed by a team with the 9th ranked scoring offense and 10th ranked scoring defense and a 39-year old washed up QB in his last-hurrah season.  

 

Winning a division with QBs like Jones, Fitzpatrick, Tagovailoa whose in and out with injuries like most people go out for wings, Skylar Thompson, Mike White, Zach Wilson, and Sam Darnold is hardly impressive.  It would have been along the lines of tragic had we not been able to do that, which fed directly into those seedings. 

 

Let's see how he does this season, over/under achieves, now that there's finally some competition in the division for the first time in over 20 years.  Brady & Belichick had it easy in that regard too.  

 

 

 

You could kind of put lists together like this for every team (save maybe the Super Bowl winners, since they can always answer that list with a Lombardi):

 

For example, in relation to the bolded statement above: Isn't Shanahan a supposed offensive expert? In 5 of his last 6 playoff games they have averaged 15.8 points per game. The only time SF scored more than 23 points in their last 6 playoff games, it was against a Geno Smith-led Seattle team that was thought to be tanking at the start of the season. 

 

Or, SF blew a 10-point lead with 6 minutes to go in the Super Bowl...this great SF defense allowed the Chiefs to score 21 points in the last six minutes of the game. [Shanahan walked the Loss over to Reid on a silver platter at the end of the game]

 

ETC.

 

I think we all have a bit of Bills myopia, whether one is considered a "Homer" or a "Realist". We are so hyper-focused on our team that we don't often have a similar perspective on other teams. It is almost like "Realists" tend to see our flaws as worse than similar flaws on other teams, and "Homers" tend to see our strengths as better than similar strengths on other teams. Or in reverse, "Realists" see our strengths as lower than others, while "Homers" see others flaws as worse than ours.

 

But as the OP showed (at least in regards to the drafting of SF and Buf) the truth is usually somewhere in the middle...or more even than (not as extreme as) we may think it is.

Edited August 25, 2023 by folz

[NastyNateSoldiers]

I’ll take Shanny and Lynch all day over McBeane. 

[808]

Beane was hired after that 2017 draft. That was all doug whaleys scouts and info🫣

[PBF81]

4 hours ago, folz said:

You could kind of put lists together like this for every team (save maybe the Super Bowl winners, since they can always answer that list with a Lombardi):

 

Sure, and you'd know who was coaching well and who wasn't.    

 

Let's stay in context however.  Citing playoff seeding as an end-all-to-be-all indicator as to how good a coach is, is taking some liberties.   Especially when the team is in a division with three other teams that aren't good, and that otherwise hasn't had schedules of any worse than average difficulty.  

 

 

[SoCal Deek]

It’s an interesting comparison for sure but I’d imagine you could pick out any of the many also-rans around the league and make similar ones. The fact is that for almost a decade now, the league has been dominated by two teams: New England and Kansas City. They’ve appeared in 7 of the last 9 Super Bowls, with a plethora of other teams making a one-and-done run to try and compete. It’s been the hunters versus the hunted with 30 other teams chasing the front runners. 

[Matt_In_NH]

In terms of DVOA and offensive/defensive rankings the Bills have to be near historic highs over the last three years in the regular season.  Often a team with a great offense gives up more yards...not true with the Bills.  That just shines a brighter light on the playoff results.   

 

2019:  Houston...the Bills were barely a playoff team, I think they were 50/50 to win that game and it went to OT, they lost

2020:  This team was not on KC's level and they lost to them in the championship game

2021:  The staff botched 2021/13 seconds.  Another OT loss.

2022:  IMHO The Bills were not ready for the field conditions and this contributed heavily to the slow start they never recovered from.   I do also think there was supreme mental/emotional exhaustion that set in.  I know what some may say but two playoff losses have been in OT which is a crap shoot, both times they played good enough on the road to make it to OT but then lost.   There is some luck (or unluck) with that.

 

The reality is the NFC has less good teams, the king of the league year in and year out is KC right now and they happen to be in the Bills conference.   I don't think the staff is incompetent but they have had some bad moments in key spots, that needs to stop.  The simple reality is every year not winning the SB is a disappointment right now.  Fans will find a reason why the staff/organization has failed if they don't win the SB, it just comes with the territory.   

[BananaB]

Teams getting older and there isn’t much faith in how this staff goes about replacements. WR was a disaster last year, MLB looks to be a disaster this year, every year we bring in depth and versatile lineman that just ain’t very good.  What happens when Po and Hyde leave? When the got hurt last year there was talk about replacements being fine because they been in the system for a couple years, they played terrible. We spent numerous high picks on dline then bring in aging vets to do their job. Beanes chucking dice at the RB position and we’re always complaining about run game. With the aging players at some point there is gonna be a turnover on this group where we will have numerous changes in personnel instead of just one or two positions, it could be very ugly. 

[Toyo321]

The cap next year is going to force some changes too.  I would not be surprised to see a few shocking cuts or trades to get the team back under the cap.

They are listed at -$41 Million for next year.  That is a lot of money to trim off the books.

[FilthyBeast]

10 hours ago, Dr.Sack said:

Now do the Chiefs & Bengals. I’ll save you time - they have killed Beane in the draft since 2019. Hence why we have plateaued and they are the only two teams in the AFC who have beaten us in the playoffs. If Beane hits higher than 17/31 picks drafted since 2019-2022 still on team we are hoisting a Lombardi.

 

Brett Veach is the best in the business and keeps hitting on draft picks across all rounds, not just high round guys but late round finds as well.

 

At some point the Beane needs to find more than just average NFL starters, solid backups, etc but maybe that changes this year given the early returns on Kincaid and Torrance.

[FireChans]

9 hours ago, folz said:

 

You could kind of put lists together like this for every team (save maybe the Super Bowl winners, since they can always answer that list with a Lombardi):

 

For example, in relation to the bolded statement above: Isn't Shanahan a supposed offensive expert? In 5 of his last 6 playoff games they have averaged 15.8 points per game. The only time SF scored more than 23 points in their last 6 playoff games, it was against a Geno Smith-led Seattle team that was thought to be tanking at the start of the season. 

 

Or, SF blew a 10-point lead with 6 minutes to go in the Super Bowl...this great SF defense allowed the Chiefs to score 21 points in the last six minutes of the game. [Shanahan walked the Loss over to Reid on a silver platter at the end of the game]

 

ETC.

 

I think we all have a bit of Bills myopia, whether one is considered a "Homer" or a "Realist". We are so hyper-focused on our team that we don't often have a similar perspective on other teams. It is almost like "Realists" tend to see our flaws as worse than similar flaws on other teams, and "Homers" tend to see our strengths as better than similar strengths on other teams. Or in reverse, "Realists" see our strengths as lower than others, while "Homers" see others flaws as worse than ours.

 

But as the OP showed (at least in regards to the drafting of SF and Buf) the truth is usually somewhere in the middle...or more even than (not as extreme as) we may think it is.

Wonderful post. The microscopic is always larger on Buffalo here because of course it is.

 

When you’re comparing the Bills to 31 other teams, you’re gonna find lots of things that aren’t perfect. We don’t have as great of a defense as X, Y QB has been better in the playoffs recently etc etc.
 

When you compare them to a singular team, like the Niners, you go “huh, the Niners have some problems and aren’t all that different.”

 

And if you compare the Bills to every team in the league, we have been a top level team with a top QB and there’s about 23 teams that would kill themselves to be us right now.

Edited August 25, 2023 by FireChans

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Think it's a little easier to succeed in the playoffs in the NFC as there hasn't been as many true dominant teams that you'd need to beat to get there.  That can help SF's playoff record a bit.

[FireChans]

11 hours ago, Dr.Sack said:

Now do the Chiefs & Bengals. I’ll save you time - they have killed Beane in the draft since 2019. Hence why we have plateaued and they are the only two teams in the AFC who have beaten us in the playoffs. If Beane hits higher than 17/31 picks drafted since 2019-2022 still on team we are hoisting a Lombardi.

I agree with all of that. The 2019 draft in particular stings because we were drafting high with our QB on the roster and didn’t get a homerun in those rounds.
 

Ed Oliver being just a good starter and Cody Ford being a bust is the biggest difference between us and the Bengals. They hit their high picks, we did not.

[Chicken Boo]

On 8/24/2023 at 11:43 AM, FilthyBeast said:

And yes I would also fire McD and hire Shanahan without thinking twice about it if that were ever an option.

 

 

I'm still holding out hope that it somehow shakes out this way.  I have zero doubt Kyle wins a Super Bowl with a talent like Josh.

[Haslett_Stomp]

Bill Barnwell has an article today on the Trey Lance situation that agrees with the OPs assessment of Lynch's recent drafts. Skip to the part titled "What does this say about the 49ers' recent draft history?" if you don't want to read the entire article.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/38253859/trey-lance-future-best-nfl-team-trade-fits-how-49ers-got-wrong-next

 

 

[Nihilarian]

All I gotta say is...did we forget that this HC went to the playoffs with Tyrod Taylor at QB? 

 

Yes, Josh Allen is a very big reason this team is so good. However, let's not forget that the Buffalo defense has been pretty darn good too. 

[Orlando Tim]

The 49erd are like us, some good some bad but overall we win a lot so I am happy.