Chaos Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 (edited) When all is said and done, the NFL drafts typically largely going according to form. My guess is 90% of the players who are consenus top 3 round picks, go in the top 3 rounds, just mostly in a much different order than people mock. Every draft has a couple of percieved "reaches". This year in the second round Brenton Strange, DJ Johnson, and Broderic Martin all looked to be big reaches. In the the last 20 years of the NFL, are teams ever rewarded for "reaching"? Any prominent examples of players who were considered "reaches" who made the GM who reached look like genius? Edited April 29, 2023 by Chaos Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gambit Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 Our very own, Josh Allen. 9 1 5 7 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Low Positive Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 Cole Strange was considered to be a reach, but then he started all 17 games for the Pats as a rookie. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaos Posted April 29, 2023 Author Share Posted April 29, 2023 (edited) 3 hours ago, Gambit said: Our very own, Josh Allen. He was actually mocked as high as #1 overall pre-draft. Maybe the trade up price was viewed as steep, and maybe the wrong Josh morons, skewed your view, but being picked at 7 was not broadly considered a reach. Edited April 30, 2023 by Chaos 11 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wizard Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 Great question and thought! Obviously we are not in the GM side of things or "in the know," but I remember thinking that the Texans were overdrafting for JJ Watt based off of things I read and what I heard on sports talk/radio shows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 LJ Collier Jordyn Brooks Germain Ifedi D'Wayne Eskridge There is a reason I call the worst pick section of my day 1 Debriefs the "John Schneider award". A bit more retro - Darrius Heyward-Bey of the Raiders. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milanos Milano Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 Maybin 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPL Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 (edited) I remember the Cowboys getting roasted for taking Travis Frederick where they did… he ended up anchoring their line for a long time Edited April 29, 2023 by MPL Wrong player 3 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 1 minute ago, IronMaidenBills said: Maybin He said made the GM look like a genius. Not an idiot. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPL Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 A guy I know once took Patrick Willis in the 5th round of a fantasy draft for a league that started 3 individual defensive players. We still laugh about it over a decade later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYfan Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 3 minutes ago, MPL said: I remember the Cowboys getting roasted for taking Zach Martin where they did… he ended up anchoring their line for a long time I don't think it was Martin, I think it was the Center 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gambit Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 11 minutes ago, Chaos said: He was actually mocked as high as #1 overall pre-draft. Maybe the trade up price was viewed as steep, and maybe the wrong Josh morons, skewed your view, but being picked at 7 was not broadly considered a draft. I suppose you're correct. He was just so damn raw when he came out, I figured people would've assumed that was a reach. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 1 minute ago, CNYfan said: I don't think it was Martin, I think it was the Center Yea they got ROASTED for Fredericks. Martin was viewed as a 1st rounder. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPL Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 2 minutes ago, CNYfan said: I don't think it was Martin, I think it was the Center you’re right. Travis Frederick is who I was thinking of. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sharky7337 Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 Ej manuel 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaos Posted April 29, 2023 Author Share Posted April 29, 2023 10 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: LJ Collier Jordyn Brooks Germain Ifedi D'Wayne Eskridge There is a reason I call the worst pick section of my day 1 Debriefs the "John Schneider award". A bit more retro - Darrius Heyward-Bey of the Raiders. These are reaches who failed. I am asking for reaches who succeeded. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 Just now, Chaos said: These are reaches who failed. I am asking for reaches who succeeded. Travis Frederick is a good shout. Was projected mid to late day 2. The Cowboys took him end of the 1st. He became an all pro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaos Posted April 29, 2023 Author Share Posted April 29, 2023 11 minutes ago, MPL said: I remember the Cowboys getting roasted for taking Travis Frederick where they did… he ended up anchoring their line for a long time I remember some chastisement of the Cowboys for that. This is a quote indicating it was not thought a huge strecth though" "Considered the best center in his class by Mel Kiper Jr. of ESPN, Frederick decided to enter the 2013 NFL Draft as an underclassman. He was projected to be a second- to third-round selection." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albany,n.y. Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 I remember in 1989 when the Jets picked Jeff Lageman Mel Kiper said the Jets don't know how to use the draft. Also when the Bills drafted John Fina they brought up the point that Kiper didn't even do a write-up in his draft report. I also remember John Fina defending himself. Both Lageman & Fina had decent careers. There was also the big argument on TV between Kiper & Indy GM Bill Tobin where Tobin basically said Kiper knows nothing. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaos Posted April 29, 2023 Author Share Posted April 29, 2023 13 minutes ago, MPL said: I remember the Cowboys getting roasted for taking Travis Frederick where they did… he ended up anchoring their line for a long time Good call. So so far, 1 in 20 years. Early lesson - Don't try to be smarter than everyone else :). It would be nice to compile a larger list. Also, "reach" has degrees. Jack Campbell and Jaymr Gibbs were reaches in the first round, but both appear to be high floor guys and should have full NFL careers. 1 minute ago, Albany,n.y. said: I remember in 1989 when the Jets picked Jeff Lageman Mel Kiper said the Jets don't know how to use the draft. Also when the Bills drafted John Fina they brought up the point that Kiper didn't even do a write-up in his draft report. I also remember John Fina defending himself. Both Lageman & Fina had decent careers. There was also the big argument on TV between Kiper & Indy GM Bill Tobin where Tobin basically said Kiper knows nothing. 1989 is pretty far outside of my 20 year look back. The amount of study coverage and availability of data and video to form opinions in the pre-internet world, makes those days kind of irrelevent compared to modern consenuses. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milanos Milano Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 26 minutes ago, The Wiz said: He said made the GM look like a genius. Not an idiot. Sorry sarcasm doesn’t do well here lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albany,n.y. Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 13 minutes ago, Chaos said: 1989 is pretty far outside of my 20 year look back. The amount of study coverage and availability of data and video to form opinions in the pre-internet world, makes those days kind of irrelevent compared to modern consenuses. As long as there have been televised drafts, the opinions have always been relevant. Things existed before the internet, whether you believe it or not. In fact, many of those things were recorded on videotape or printed in newspapers, magazines and books. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaos Posted April 29, 2023 Author Share Posted April 29, 2023 (edited) 1 minute ago, Albany,n.y. said: As long as there have been televised drafts, the opinions have always been relevant. Things existed before the internet, whether you believe it or not. In fact, many of those things were recorded on videotape or printed in newspapers, magazines and books. You are just wrong. It is not worth the trouble to explain the difference in the NFL Mock Draft Industy in 2023 to the the five guys who talked about in on tv in 1989. I am likely older than you. I was there in 1989. 1979 and 1969 too. Edited April 29, 2023 by Chaos 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Jokeman Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 Bruce Irvin. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaos Posted April 30, 2023 Author Share Posted April 30, 2023 38 minutes ago, The Jokeman said: Bruce Irvin. At the conclusion of the pre-draft process, Irvin was projected to be a second or third round pick by NFL draft experts and scouts. While he showed superior speed and athleticism, many analysts and draft experts had him a second round draft prospect due to his numerous off the field issues he had throughout his youth and time at West Virginia. He was ranked the fifth best outside linebacker in the draft by NFLDraftScout.com. https://web.archive.org/web/20120423194924/http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=108840&draftyear=2012&genpos=OLB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted April 30, 2023 Share Posted April 30, 2023 Probably doesn't fit the mold exactly as you are looking for...but I would make the case for Mario Williams first overall. How is he a "reach" given he was a top 10 draft prospect...because when the Texans and 49ers faced off in week 17 to end the season, it was dubbed the "Reggie Bush" bowl with the loser getting the first overall pick which was "supposed" to be Bush by a landslide to go first overall. I mean that was the most talked about game between two terrible teams than I can ever remember leading up to it. More importantly, the Texans were 4 years into the awful David Carr era and badly needed a QB too with both Vince Young and Matt Leinart there as well. Then they shocked the world and made what many considered a laughing stock pick of Mario Williams over Bush...and over a QB such as Young or Leinart. But, Mario Williams was the only player out of all those guys to have long and excellent career. I get this isn't the traditional reach given Mario was gonna go in the top 10, but it was one of the most ridiculed picks I can remember in modern draft history. And its also the one where the player taken had a substantially better career than all of the other players they were allegedly "supposed" to take. 13 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaos Posted April 30, 2023 Author Share Posted April 30, 2023 22 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said: Probably doesn't fit the mold exactly as you are looking for...but I would make the case for Mario Williams first overall. How is he a "reach" given he was a top 10 draft prospect...because when the Texans and 49ers faced off in week 17 to end the season, it was dubbed the "Reggie Bush" bowl with the loser getting the first overall pick which was "supposed" to be Bush by a landslide to go first overall. I mean that was the most talked about game between two terrible teams than I can ever remember leading up to it. More importantly, the Texans were 4 years into the awful David Carr era and badly needed a QB too with both Vince Young and Matt Leinart there as well. Then they shocked the world and made what many considered a laughing stock pick of Mario Williams over Bush...and over a QB such as Young or Leinart. But, Mario Williams was the only player out of all those guys to have long and excellent career. I get this isn't the traditional reach given Mario was gonna go in the top 10, but it was one of the most ridiculed picks I can remember in modern draft history. And its also the one where the player taken had a substantially better career than all of the other players they were allegedly "supposed" to take. It fits the general concept of going against the grain, and making a bold decision. Taking a guy at 1 instead of 5 is probably equalivalent to taking a guy at 25 instead of 100. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gonzo1105 Posted April 30, 2023 Share Posted April 30, 2023 Sebastian Janikowski 6 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted April 30, 2023 Share Posted April 30, 2023 2 hours ago, Chaos said: When all is said and done, the NFL drafts typically largely going according to form. My guess is 90% of the players who are consenus top 3 round picks, go in the top 3 rounds, just mostly in a much different order than people mock. Every draft has a couple of percieved "reaches". This year in the second round Brenton Strange, DJ Johnson, and Broderic Martin all looked to be big reaches. In the the last 20 years of the NFL, are teams ever rewarded for "reaching"? Any prominent examples of players who were considered "reaches" who made the GM who reached look like genius? Gibbs at 12 was the biggest reach of the draft. He is a f***ing RB and not one named Bijon Robinson. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillyG Posted April 30, 2023 Share Posted April 30, 2023 Donte Whitner /ducks 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaos Posted April 30, 2023 Author Share Posted April 30, 2023 9 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said: Donte Whitner /ducks Whitner was a reach who went on to great success in the NFL? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaos Posted April 30, 2023 Author Share Posted April 30, 2023 24 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said: Sebastian Janikowski Interesting one. If he had been a 4th round draft pick, his NFL statistics would look very good. But he has a tremendously long career and is 10th in points for a career. So I think he qualifies as going on to success. And he was definitely considered a reach. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gonzo1105 Posted April 30, 2023 Share Posted April 30, 2023 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Chaos said: Interesting one. If he had been a 4th round draft pick, his NFL statistics would look very good. But he has a tremendously long career and is 10th in points for a career. So I think he qualifies as going on to success. And he was definitely considered a reach. Go look at the guys picked after him in the first and second very few went on to be successful Edited April 30, 2023 by gonzo1105 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
947 Posted April 30, 2023 Share Posted April 30, 2023 Aaron Donald & Dwight Freeney come to mind as being considered reaches on Draft Day. Freeney was mostly projected as a 2nd rounder and went 11th. Donald was said to be a late 1st rounder, he went 13th. NFL.com even rated him a 5.9 prospect, Average Backup or Special Teamer. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillyG Posted April 30, 2023 Share Posted April 30, 2023 29 minutes ago, Chaos said: Whitner was a reach who went on to great success in the NFL? All kidding aside...he did have a 10 year NFL career with 3 Pro Bowls. Made a ton of money doing it. Yeah, I'd classify his career as greatly successful. 1 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaos Posted April 30, 2023 Author Share Posted April 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said: All kidding aside...he did have a 10 year NFL career with 3 Pro Bowls. Made a ton of money doing it. Yeah, I'd classify his career as greatly successful. I know he was not a fan favorite when drafted. Where was he projected to be drafted to make him a reach? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1ManRaid Posted April 30, 2023 Share Posted April 30, 2023 According to this forum, any 5th round selection who then played well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillyG Posted April 30, 2023 Share Posted April 30, 2023 1 minute ago, Chaos said: I know he was not a fan favorite when drafted. Where was he projected to be drafted to make him a reach? Now we're talking many moons ago so memory is a bit muttered. But I remember people saying he would have been there in the 2md. Don't recall the mock drafts from that long ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaos Posted April 30, 2023 Author Share Posted April 30, 2023 Just now, BuffaloBillyG said: Now we're talking many moons ago so memory is a bit muttered. But I remember people saying he would have been there in the 2md. Don't recall the mock drafts from that long ago. me either, hence the question. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaos Posted April 30, 2023 Author Share Posted April 30, 2023 14 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said: Now we're talking many moons ago so memory is a bit muttered. But I remember people saying he would have been there in the 2md. Don't recall the mock drafts from that long ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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