Allen led all QB's in PFF Offensive Grade at 91.8

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

8 hours ago, DaggersEOD said:

I don’t disagree, but I think where the ints are occurring (RZ) that’s making them more impactful/noticeable. 

 

 Yeah, but the ints in the redzone are being offset by the increase in tds outside the redzone. That's why our ppg average was 28.4 both years. 

 

 This offense has varied over the last 3 years, but the results are very similar. Most impactful difference is ppg average in 2020(31.1) was +2.7 higher than over the last 2 years(28.4). Would love to have that extra 2.7, but that's still pretty consistent for a 3 year span. Yards per game, 406.8 in 2020, 391.7 in 2021 and 407.7 this year. Also 1st downs per game averages for those 3 years are all within .46 of each other.

 

 We're alot more aggressive under Dorsey than we were under Daboll. I've heard Dorsey talk several times about not being conservative. When you mix an ultra aggressive QB with an aggressive OC this is what you're going to get. It may be maddening at times, but I've been watching the Bills since the 70s and the offense has never been more exciting to watch. Enjoy it while it's here. Unless..........we are lucky enough to get back to back QBs like the Packers and Colts did.

 

 

 

[Nelius]

He'll whip a football into a linebacker's gut on Sunday and I'll still want him to lead this team into any game. He's physically superior, and the stats the reflect this are only an afterthought at this point.

 

Gun to head with one choice - Joe Burrow or Josh Allen? Airseven will say Burrow and kick his cat in frustration, but we all know the real answer.

4 hours ago, Airseven said:

That’s right. He’s wrapped two fabulous playoff games in 80+ games of wild inconsistency. It’s why the MVP hype and forced Mahomes comparisons are so silly.

 

You straight up marvelled over Mac heaving a duck into lucky coverage just a week ago and then shut down while Allen stomped all over the Pats. Everybody should ignore you. You lily pad leap from one contentious point to another like the tiny attention seeking child that you are. If the Bills were playing the Jets this week you'd have glowing Zach Wilson commentary. It's like extremely boring Diet SaviourEdwards.

[Doc Brown]

10 hours ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

Joe Marino on his pod yesterday pointed out that Allen’s INT % last year vs this year was (paraphrasing the specifics but this is close) 2.4% to 2.6%…his point was Josh statistically not materially worse in the category. 

The main difference is he threw six in the red zone this year so they're more memorable and back breaking.  What's amazing is his first red zone pick of his career wasn't until November of 2021.  A harsh regression to the mean.

[CSBill]

Yes, Josh has been about the same in interceptions this season 14 in '22, 15 in '21 - and every throwing stats was close to identical for the last two seasons ('20 was his best season in almost every stat).

 

But there are two areas where he has digressed:

• 8 fumbles this year, his career high
• And probably most important, when and where those turnovers have occurred: in the Red Zone (5 this season), and inside the opponents territory (I could not find the stats on that, but the eyeball test is concerning - two of our loses can be directly tied to this - Miami: Fumble at the 4, Minnesota - fumble at the goal line). .... I know there are many other factors in both those games, but take away those two plays, and this is a one loss season. In addition, there were 2 interceptions and 2 fumbles in the Jets game (neither fumble was lost, but they are scary).

Having said that, I would still take him over any QB in the NFL right now. You can also make a strong case for how many games we would not have won without him at QB. And, even with the negatives we are the #2 scoring team in the NFL and we won 13 games. Every team would take that.

 

The Main Point: Josh, take care of the ball and this team is almost unstoppable over a 60 minute game.

 

2022 NFL QB Red Zone Stats and Rank

 

Edited January 18, 2023 by CSBill

[CorkScrewHill]

11 hours ago, DaggersEOD said:

I don’t disagree, but I think where the ints are occurring (RZ) that’s making them more impactful/noticeable. 

It seems that historically he has had few turnovers in the red zone. This is new and similar to the Bills can’t win one score games (just remember a few short months ago when their was handwringing on that topic) i believe this too shall return to the mean .

 

Is the John Brown failed bomb that got picked 60 yds down the field considered a red zone int or only those where the team is in the red zone at the start of the play?

[GreggTX]

Turns out everyone at PFF doesn't hate Josh after all. I'm mildly surprised.

 

[GreggTX]

Just make the OL and WR our top 2 priorities this coming offseason and 2023-2024 will be his best year to date. If our run game is as good as our pass game, Josh will play with a clean pocket. I do think he doesn't process or see things quite as quickly as other elite QB's, but his athleticism more than makes up for it.

[78thealltimegreat]

7 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Is he a Bills fan or a troll?

 

 

I think I remember him talking about Mac Jones being the next Tom Brady so there’s your clue 

[mabden]

14 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

I think we just are going to have to live with what he does.  He will drive us crazy with some turnovers but he will also make more unbelievable plays in a season than most QB's do in their career.

 

Before we drafted Allen, I watched as much highlight film on him as I could find.  The number one takeaway... 'man this kids going to be a lot of fun to watch.  I hope we draft him.'

[Man with No Name]

the thing with his INTs are that most are not coming because of some sort of gunslinger mentality. They're not from throwing into tight coverage or making a stupid throw while on the run. 

 

At least half of them just went to a spot where he just didn't see a defender or perhaps he had anticipated his receivers being in a different spot. They are mistakes I hadn't noticed him making in the past. Maybe he just needs more reps and better chemistry with current set of receivers. 

 

Not hard to envision josh throwing 5 or 6 less INTs next season. 

[teef]

9 hours ago, Airseven said:

That’s right. He’s wrapped two fabulous playoff games in 80+ games of wild inconsistency. It’s why the MVP hype and forced Mahomes comparisons are so silly.

there is such a desperate need for attention here.

[Big Turk]

6 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

The main difference is he threw six in the red zone this year so they're more memorable and back breaking.  What's amazing is his first red zone pick of his career wasn't until November of 2021.  A harsh regression to the mean.

 

Fun fact is that Brady threw his first RZ pick in like 3 years against Dallas in the playoffs game a few days ago snapping his NFL record streak. It happens. Would like to see it happen less obviously with Allen, but I think in the mindset he is in this year that's par for the course. You just hope it doesn't cost you a game like it did against Minnesota.

[Scott7975]

14 hours ago, clayboy54 said:

4 more turnovers than last year over 17 games. Not a big deal, but yes, 4 more. I just don’t see a major change in the way Josh is playing. I really like the risk/reward return, honestly. He threw for more yards and scored more TDs than last year along the way.

 

While also playing a tougher schedule

[StHustle]

19 hours ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

Joe Marino on his pod yesterday pointed out that Allen’s INT % last year vs this year was (paraphrasing the specifics but this is close) 2.4% to 2.6%…his point was Josh statistically not materially worse in the category. 

probably been pointed out by now but this season the issue isn’t his total TD #s…it’s his red zone TD numbers….that’s what makes this year worse

 

 

Edited January 18, 2023 by StHustle

[Scott7975]

Both Mahomes and Burrow had 12 ints on the season.  Josh had 14.  Only Josh gets ***** on for throwing ints like its a huge problem.  I would like the turnovers to tone down but this is what you get if you want to see the amazing plays that he also makes.

[CincyBillsFan]

14 minutes ago, StHustle said:

probably been pointed out right now but this season the issue isn’t his total TD #s…it’s his red zone TD numbers….that’s what makes this year worse

But as others have noted Allen has upped his TD throws from outside the red zone.

 

16 minutes ago, StHustle said:

probably been pointed out right now but this season the issue isn’t his total TD #s…it’s his red zone TD numbers….that’s what makes this year worse

But has this year been "worse"?  Allen's stat compare favorably with last season.  The Bills offensive stats are about the same. More importantly the Bills had a better regular season record then last year, have made the divisional round of the playoffs and unlike last year are playing this game at home.  So by every relevant measure the increased red zone INT's have not made things worse.

 

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

14 minutes ago, StHustle said:

probably been pointed out right now but this season the issue isn’t his total TD #s…it’s his red zone TD numbers….that’s what makes this year worse

 

 But his increase in tds outside of the redzone balance out the decrease in redzone tds. Last year's offense and this year's offense just did it in different ways. Me personally, I'd rather have an offense that can score from anywhere on the field. Either way the offense and Josh's stats are nearly identical in both years and in almost every case slightly better this year. 

 

 

 

 

JOSH

 

Comp. % - 2021 - 63.3

                  2022 - 63 3

 

YPG - 2021 - 259.2

          2022 - 267.7

 

YPA - 2021 - 6.8

          2022 - 7.6

 

TD/INT - 2021 - 36/15

               2022 - 35/14

 

QB Rating- 2021 - 92.2

                   2022 - 96.6

 

QBR - 2021 - 66.3

           2022 - 71.5

 

Rush Att. - 2021 - 122

                  2022 - 124

 

Rush Yards - 2021 - 763

                      2022 - 762

 

Rush TDs - 2021 - 6

                   2022 - 7

 

 OFFENSE 

 

PPG - 2021 - 28.4

          2022 - 28.4

 

YPG - 2021 - 391.7

          2022 - 407.7

 

1st Down PG - 2021 - 23.41

                        2022 - 22.93

 

 

 

[StHustle]

35 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

But as others have noted Allen has upped his TD throws from outside the red zone.

 

But has this year been "worse"?  Allen's stat compare favorably with last season.  The Bills offensive stats are about the same. More importantly the Bills had a better regular season record then last year, have made the divisional round of the playoffs and unlike last year are playing this game at home.  So by every relevant measure the increased red zone INT's have not made things worse.

 

I meant “that’s what makes his turnovers this year worse than last year.” 
 

Overall this has been a better season.

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

37 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

Both Mahomes and Burrow had 12 ints on the season.  Josh had 14.  Only Josh gets ***** on for throwing ints like its a huge problem.  I would like the turnovers to tone down but this is what you get if you want to see the amazing plays that he also makes.

 

 Better yet over the last 2 years Josh has 29, Burrow 26 & Mahomes has 25. 1.5 ints more than Burrow and 2 more than Mahomes spread out over an entire season, over a 2 year span is nothing. I agree, if 1 gets **** on, then they all should.

 

 

 

[machine gun kelly]

The problem is Allen catches flack from some national media that Mahomes does as well.  I honestly don’t care that much as long as we keep winning games.

 

We definitely need a mistake free or almost free game Sunday.  I’m just so happy it’s another early Sunday afternoon game.  I hate that we have to wait til 3 as the wait so going to kill me, but we’ll at least know our opponent on Sunday morning.

 

Go Jags!

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

1 hour ago, machine gun kelly said:

The problem is Allen catches flack from some national media that Mahomes does as well.  I honestly don’t care that much as long as we keep winning games.

 

We definitely need a mistake free or almost free game Sunday.  I’m just so happy it’s another early Sunday afternoon game.  I hate that we have to wait til 3 as the wait so going to kill me, but we’ll at least know our opponent on Sunday morning.

 

Go Jags!

Every time you listen to this group you become just a bit dumber each time.

[hondo in seattle]

19 hours ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

I think the big mistake we make with Josh here is comparing his 2022 regular season only to the 2021 playoffs and not the 2021 regular season.  It's a recency bias thing and after watching the perfect game against NE and the shootout against KC we started unrealistically expecting mistake free games littered all over the place. 

 

I wanted to believe that Josh had reached a new level in the playoffs last year.  I think many of us hoped that what we saw then would be the new norm going forward.

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

20 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

I wanted to believe that Josh had reached a new level in the playoffs last year.  I think many of us hoped that what we saw then would be the new norm going forward.

I understand that because part of me felt the same but if that level of play was his norm then he’d be the unquestioned greatest NFL player of all time.

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

1 hour ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

I understand that because part of me felt the same but if that level of play was his norm then he’d be the unquestioned greatest NFL player of all time.

 

 Yeah I agree. 48/62, 77.3%, 637 yds, 9 tds, 0 ints, QB Rating of 148.99 & a QBR over 95. No one's coming close to that for a season, probably won't even see something that good for a postseason either.

 

 

 

[Sierra Foothills]

16 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

I've been calling Josh a larger version of Brett Favre for a quite a while now. I often mention in the next breath that Mahomes is a more athletic version of Aaron Rodgers and recently I've begun likening Joe Burrow to a larger version of Drew Brees... Burrow's accuracy is quite incredible IMO.

 

None of you guys took the bait. You're like my buddies... no fun.

 

4 hours ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

Every time you listen to this group you become just a bit dumber each time.

 

You're being unnecessarily redundant. Both boldeds are not needed... only one.