Miyagi-Do Karate Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 4 minutes ago, LeGOATski said: If the AFCCG is at a neutral site, it better be outdoors. All the top seeded teams play outdoors. The Super Bowl is always played at a perfect weather location or indoor spot. Why not the same for the AFCCG? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bills!Win! Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 (edited) This may actually end up working in our favor. If we were the 1 seed we would have to play the chargers most likely in the first matchup (divisional round). I feel like they are the toughest match. instead, as the 2 seed, if we win our 2 games and let’s say we host the chargers in the AFC championship after they win 2 physical games against the afc south winner and then the chiefs, they’ll be a little more worn out, then having to travel to orchard park after 2 straight road games. LA is a long flight and fatigue will weigh heavily on them Edited January 6, 2023 by Bills!Win! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevestojan Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Well this is really straightforward. But if someone could explain it like I’m 5 years old, as far as what week 18 means, that would be awesome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caesar Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 15 minutes ago, LeGOATski said: If the AFCCG is at a neutral site, it better be outdoors. All the top seeded teams play outdoors. Zero chance, unless it’s in a warm weather city Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Process Posted January 6, 2023 Author Share Posted January 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, Caesar said: The Bengals should handle the ravens easily. And if so none of this will matter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akm0404 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 (edited) 54 minutes ago, Caesar said: The division means nothing if the Ravens have a coin toss opportunity to play the first playoff game at home...? We lose the only benefit the division title offers, in fact we are more shafted as we could lose home field and have the #1's schedule next season... lol I do not agree with your framing of this. If the scenario happens where you lose to the Ravens this week and the other results break such that the Ravens are slotted exactly into the 6 seed, you then have a 50% chance of hosting the game - you do not lose it outright. So you only lose that home game in the unlikely (but not impossible) scenario where: You lose to the Ravens, the Chargers lose to the Broncos, and you lose the coin flip. Current implied odds of this happening are 26.18% (Lose to Ravens) * 57.11% (Broncos beat Chargers) * 50% (Lose coin toss) = 7.47%. So essentially, there is a very, very small chance that you end up playing in Baltimore as the #3 seed (less than 1 in 10 chance), and you control your own destiny to prevent that adverse impact. In the scenario where the Bills/Bengals game was not suspended, you'd have maybe a 40% chance of losing that and a 26.18% chance of losing to the Ravens and then 100% of the time going on the road as the probable #5 seed - something that may have happened around 10.4% of the time (the same 1 in 10 or so chance of getting shafted with a road game against Baltimore). But, all that said I am not disagreeing with your basic premise that voiding the game hurt your team more than the Bills (and CERTAINLY more than the Chiefs). You gave up all of your (small but not zero) equity to get the #1 seed, AND have a 10% or so chance of winning the division and playing Baltimore on the road. In return you "benefit" by no longer having the scenario where 10% of the time you went lose/lose if the Bills/Bengals game continued and fell to the 5 seed. In contrast, the Bills gave up only a portion of their #1 seed equity (coming back to beat the Bengals and then beating the Patriots - 33.2% probability or so versus now needing a win vs. the Patriots and a Chiefs loss, a 15.5% or so chance). So, the Bills lost around a 17% chance at the #1 seed. The Chiefs meanwhile GAINED the entirety of the Bengals #1 seed equity, a portion of the Bills #1 seed equity (raising them to a >85% chance at the bye), and only conceded a neutral site AFC Championship game in certain scenarios, most likely Chiefs vs. Bills. All that is a thought exercise in probability and I still contend that its mostly academic as you need to beat all of the good teams to win the Super Bowl and it doesn't end up making that big of a difference in the end. Also, some kid almost died and this is just a some sportsball games, so we should probably care less. Cheers! Edited January 6, 2023 by akm0404 2 3 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caesar Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 6 minutes ago, Process said: The Bengals should handle the ravens easily. And if so none of this will matter. We had just as much chance at the #1 seed as much as the Bills do now. We also controlled our own destiny for the #2 seed, we now need you guys to lose. It is not about "just win the games", it is the total ***** sandwich they rammed down the Bengals throats while gifting KC the #1 seed. I will say that the Bengals have their entire team in tact from last years playoff run on the road, with the exception of better olinemen - I believe we will be ok and I'd bet we are the last team the Chiefs want to see. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Airseven Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 19 minutes ago, Bills!Win! said: This may actually end up working in our favor. If we were the 1 seed we would have to play the chargers most likely in the first matchup (divisional round). I feel like they are the toughest match. instead, as the 2 seed, if we win our 2 games and let’s say we host the chargers in the AFC championship after they win 2 physical games against the afc south winner and then the chiefs, they’ll be a little more worn out, then having to travel to orchard park after 2 straight road games. LA is a long flight and fatigue will weigh heavily on them So you’re taking two wins against this gauntlet of an AFC for granted? Just skipping right ahead to the conference championship game? That is an absurd way to spin this. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LABILLBACKER Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Hey I'll take a couple home playoff games and a Mafia packed neutral site anyday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caesar Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 5 minutes ago, akm0404 said: I do not agree with your framing of this. If the scenario happens where you lose to the Ravens this week and the other results break such that the Ravens are slotted exactly into the 6 seed, you then have a 50% chance of hosting the game - you do not lose it outright. So you only lose that home game in the unlikely (but not impossible) scenario where: You lose to the Ravens, the Chargers lose to the Broncos, and you lose the coin flip. Current implied odds of this happening are 26.18% (Lose to Ravens) * 57.11% (Broncos beat Chargers) * 50% (Lose coin toss) = 7.47%. So essentially, there is a very, very small chance that you end up playing in Baltimore as the #3 seed (less than 1 in 10 chance), and you control your own destiny to prevent that adverse impact. In the scenario where the Bills/Bengals game was not suspended, you'd have maybe a 40% chance of losing that and a 26.18% chance of losing to the Ravens and then 100% of the time going on the road as the probable #5 seed - something that may have happened around 10.4% of the time (the same 1 in 10 or so chance of getting shafted with a road game against Baltimore). But, all that said I am not disagreeing with your basic premise that voiding the game hurt your team more than the Bills (and CERTAINLY more than the Chiefs). You gave up all of your (small but not zero) equity to get the #1 seed, AND have a 10% or so chance of winning the division and playing Baltimore on the road. In return you "benefit" by no longer having the scenario where 10% of the time you went lose/lose if the Bills/Bengals game continued and fell to the 5 seed. In contrast, the Bills gave up only a portion of their #1 seed equity (coming back to beat the Bengals and then beating the Patriots - 33.2% probability or so versus now needing a win vs. the Patriots and a Chiefs loss, a 15.5% or so chance). So, the Bills lost around a 17% chance at the #1 seed. The Chiefs meanwhile GAINED the entirety of the Bengals #1 seed equity, a portion of the Bills #1 seed equity (raising them to a >85% chance at the bye), and only conceded a neutral site AFC Championship game in certain scenarios, most likely Chiefs vs. Bills. All that is a thought exercise in probability and I still contend that its mostly academic as you need to beat all of the good teams to win the Super Bowl and it doesn't end up making that big of a difference in the end. Also, some kid almost died and this is just a some sportsball games, so we should probably care less. Cheers! Good stuff. Hopefully our team uses this as more motivation. The lack of any respect from the league whatsoever is frustrating. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledInIllinois Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Well... Maybe the League saw the Bengals were playing dirty with the attempted Allen leg roll and Johnson head ram... ...The Hamlin/Higgins play was clean... BUT Higgins did bury his helmet into Hamlin's chest. After all the animosity the Bengals were feeling because they are defending AFC Champs and Bills were stealing their media thunder BEFORE the Hamlin play... I would say Karma caught up with them. Cincy did redeem themselves the way they handled the Hamlin near death... Well basically death, he was brought back from the dead. 4 minutes ago, Caesar said: Good stuff. Hopefully our team uses this as more motivation. The lack of any respect from the league whatsoever is frustrating. There you guys go again... Didn't karma catch up with you before? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Brown Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 26 minutes ago, stevestojan said: Well this is really straightforward. But if someone could explain it like I’m 5 years old, as far as what week 18 means, that would be awesome. We should go all out to win regardless of the Chiefs outcome on Saturday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Low Positive Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 1 minute ago, Doc Brown said: We should go all out to win regardless of the Chiefs outcome on Saturday. Yes. The Bills have a level that no other team can match. We haven’t seen it since week 2 but it’s there. it’s long since time to break that out again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledInIllinois Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Kinda weird about the play. I just read Higgins at first thought Hamlin flopped. That's strange to think that... Bengals, up until that play were feeling really disrespected. Now they still do... Go figure... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeGOATski Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 40 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said: The Super Bowl is always played at a perfect weather location or indoor spot. Why not the same for the AFCCG? Because the AFCCG is not. It's played at the higher seed's stadium. And they have played SB's in New Jersey and SF outdoors. Not guaranteed good-weather areas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledInIllinois Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Just now, LeGOATski said: Because the AFCCG is not. It's played at the higher seed's stadium. Why shouldn't the SuperBowl be played at the higher seed's stadium too? Both Conferences play each during the year. SB is perfect and throws seeding out. Surely Conference Championship can do the same. Maybe move both Conference Championship games to the SuperBowl venue two weeks before the SB? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeGOATski Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 32 minutes ago, mannc said: Zero chance, unless it’s in a warm weather city Not zero at all. I could see them playing it in Nashville. It's a good fit geographically. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freddie's Dead Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 1 minute ago, LeGOATski said: Not zero at all. I could see them playing it in Nashville. It's a good fit geographically. A Bills playoff game in Nashveel? Shirley you cannot be serious. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeGOATski Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Just now, ExiledInIllinois said: Why shouldn't the SuperBowl be played at the higher seed's stadium too? Both Conferences play each during the year. SB is perfect and throws seeding out. Surely Conference Championship can do the same. Maybe move both Conference Championship games to the SuperBowl venue two weeks before the SB? Why do seeding at all? 2 minutes ago, Freddie's Dead said: A Bills playoff game in Nashveel? Shirley you cannot be serious. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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