Gregory Rousseau is becoming elite

[QCity]

51 minutes ago, Jim said:

When people write stuff like what I bolded above it makes me crazy. I have exactly zero memory of anybody ever saying that “year 3, that’s when Greg Rousseau comes alive!”

 

It is just a bunch of hopeful nonsense. I don’t say this to be mean but it drives me nuts. Instead of drafting to help our QB, we likely wasted four picks on bad to JAGish defensive lineman. 
 

Lastly, this is an old boring take but I do remember watching some of Rousseau’s college “highlights” and it struck me how cheap so many of his sacks seemed (i.e. QB running into him, a long amateurish play resulting in a sack that you’d never see in the NFL, or him grabbing a sack as a result of another player making a big play to open up a sack for him). In retrospect, it kinda reminds me of when I first saw EJ’s college highlights.

 

There's a lot of fans that have to tell themselves this nonsense so they can sleep at night. They know major FA reinforcements aren't coming this offsesaon.

[JaCrispy]

52 minutes ago, Jim said:

When people write stuff like what I bolded above it makes me crazy. I have exactly zero memory of anybody ever saying that “year 3, that’s when Greg Rousseau comes alive!”

 

It is just a bunch of hopeful nonsense. I don’t say this to be mean but it drives me nuts. Instead of drafting to help our QB, we likely wasted four picks on bad to JAGish defensive lineman. 
 

Lastly, this is an old boring take but I do remember watching some of Rousseau’s college “highlights” and it struck me how cheap so many of his sacks seemed (i.e. QB running into him, a long amateurish play resulting in a sack that you’d never see in the NFL, or him grabbing a sack as a result of another player making a big play to open up a sack for him). In retrospect, it kinda reminds me of when I first saw EJ’s college highlights.

I have said this over and over- you will rarely see Groot “win” against an o-lineman to get to the QB…He is more of a “cleanup artist”- meaning other lineman will put pressure on the QB, flushing him toward Groot, or it will be a coverage sack…

 

And I completely agree about the EJ comparison- hardest working guy with a positive, happy-go lucky attitude who just doesn’t have the athleticism or skill to ever be great….

[GunnerBill]

56 minutes ago, Jim said:

 

Lastly, this is an old boring take but I do remember watching some of Rousseau’s college “highlights” and it struck me how cheap so many of his sacks seemed (i.e. QB running into him, a long amateurish play resulting in a sack that you’d never see in the NFL, or him grabbing a sack as a result of another player making a big play to open up a sack for him). In retrospect, it kinda reminds me of when I first saw EJ’s college highlights.

 

This kinda goes to @BADOLBILZ's point though. Rousseau is NOT and never will be a bendy, twitchy, flashy edge who flashes around the outside of the tackle and gets the sack. That isn't who he is. He is, however, a very fundamentally sound edge player who gets the clean up sacks, wins with leverage and rarely makes mistakes or misplays his assignments. He is a guy who is going to be more what he was this year... a 8-10 sack a year kinda guy. He is a fine player. He is worth the late 1st round pick the Bills spent on him. Nobody doubts the Bills needed a true explosive, bendy, edge rusher.

 

The issue is those guys rarely get found outside of the first half of the first round in the draft. If you look at the top 10 sack list in 2022, 7 of the 10 were 1st rounders and the 6 of those 7 that were edge rushers (Chris Jones was late 1st but is a DT) were picked in the top half of the first round. The three non-1st rounders were Crosby, Highsmith and Judon. Highsmith only broke out this year in year 3, Judon broke out in year 5, Crosby is the one exception of a non-1st rounder who was immediately an impactful edge rusher from outside the first half of the first round. I did a thread a few weeks back looking at the 2021 class in which the Bills selected Groot and the only guy who has truly been a more impactful player went #18 overall, 12 picks before the Bills went on the clock. 

 

As such they ended up spending FA dollars on Von to address their need. It just sucks that we lost him to an ACL because the window for Von to push us over the top was 2022 and 2023. He missed the stretch run and playoffs last year and is likely to miss at least half of 2023. 

[BarleyNY]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

This kinda goes to @BADOLBILZ's point though. Rousseau is NOT and never will be a bendy, twitchy, flashy edge who flashes around the outside of the tackle and gets the sack. That isn't who he is. He is, however, a very fundamentally sound edge player who gets the clean up sacks, wins with leverage and rarely makes mistakes or misplays his assignments. He is a guy who is going to be more what he was this year... a 8-10 sack a year kinda guy. He is a fine player. He is worth the late 1st round pick the Bills spent on him. Nobody doubts the Bills needed a true explosive, bendy, edge rusher.

 

The issue is those guys rarely get found outside of the first half of the first round in the draft. If you look at the top 10 sack list in 2022, 7 of the 10 were 1st rounders and the 6 of those 7 that were edge rushers (Chris Jones was late 1st but is a DT) were picked in the top half of the first round. The three non-1st rounders were Crosby, Highsmith and Judon. Highsmith only broke out this year in year 3, Judon broke out in year 5, Crosby is the one exception of a non-1st rounder who was immediately an impactful edge rusher from outside the first half of the first round. I did a thread a few weeks back looking at the 2021 class in which the Bills selected Groot and the only guy who has truly been a more impactful player went #18 overall, 12 picks before the Bills went on the clock. 

 

As such they ended up spending FA dollars on Von to address their need. It just sucks that we lost him to an ACL because the window for Von to push us over the top was 2022 and 2023. He missed the stretch run and playoffs last year and is likely to miss at least half of 2023. 

Yup. Rousseau is a good complimentary DE drafted to fill a need with a cost controlled contract for 4-5 seasons. Not a jersey I’d recommend someone buy. 

[Billl]

He may never be an elite player, but he’s pretty solid and certainly the least of Buffalo’s problems looking to the future.  Young guys very rarely put up big sack numbers. If you look at last year’s draft, only 3 players had more than 4 sacks and one of the is 24 years old.  GR may wind up being a top 5 sack guy out of the past two draft classes by the time it’s all said and done. 

[Fallser]

Rousseau is a nice piece, too bad Epenesa and Basham are disappointing, ceiling doesn't seem hight for either of them to boot. But, I'm not sure why we drafted Basham there when there were other needs...

[HappyDays]

4 hours ago, Jim said:

I have exactly zero memory of anybody ever saying that “year 3, that’s when Greg Rousseau comes alive!”

 

Then you haven't paid attention. He was known to be a raw prospect. Players like him you expect to hit their stride in year three. Young, didn't play much in college, took an entire year off of football. The first half of this past season he was one of the best players on the team. Then Von went down so he had to play more snaps than planned and he got a high ankle sprain. So he faded down the stretch a bit. After another offseason of NFL conditioning I expect this to be his breakout year. No he isn't going to suddenly turn into Nick Bosa but I see him becoming a consistent 10+ sack a year guy who also continues to be a premier run stopper. That kind of production is a foundational player for a franchise.

[Royale with Cheese]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

This kinda goes to @BADOLBILZ's point though. Rousseau is NOT and never will be a bendy, twitchy, flashy edge who flashes around the outside of the tackle and gets the sack. That isn't who he is. He is, however, a very fundamentally sound edge player who gets the clean up sacks, wins with leverage and rarely makes mistakes or misplays his assignments. He is a guy who is going to be more what he was this year... a 8-10 sack a year kinda guy. He is a fine player. He is worth the late 1st round pick the Bills spent on him. Nobody doubts the Bills needed a true explosive, bendy, edge rusher.

 

The issue is those guys rarely get found outside of the first half of the first round in the draft. If you look at the top 10 sack list in 2022, 7 of the 10 were 1st rounders and the 6 of those 7 that were edge rushers (Chris Jones was late 1st but is a DT) were picked in the top half of the first round. The three non-1st rounders were Crosby, Highsmith and Judon. Highsmith only broke out this year in year 3, Judon broke out in year 5, Crosby is the one exception of a non-1st rounder who was immediately an impactful edge rusher from outside the first half of the first round. I did a thread a few weeks back looking at the 2021 class in which the Bills selected Groot and the only guy who has truly been a more impactful player went #18 overall, 12 picks before the Bills went on the clock. 

 

As such they ended up spending FA dollars on Von to address their need. It just sucks that we lost him to an ACL because the window for Von to push us over the top was 2022 and 2023. He missed the stretch run and playoffs last year and is likely to miss at least half of 2023. 

 

Von is confident he will be back by training camp post surgery.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Von is confident he will be back by training camp post surgery.

 

That like he was confident he'd be back for the Jets game? 

 

I think Doctor Von should stick to football

[Royale with Cheese]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

That like he was confident he'd be back for the Jets game? 

 

I think Doctor Von should stick to football

 

I think August would be 8 months?  Did he come back last time in about the same amount of time?

[SoCal Deek]

I believe McDs strategy of rotating defensive linemen is actually part of the problem with the pass rush. The Bills have had a plethora of guys trying to get to the QB over the last five years. The common denominator is that none of them has been allowed to develop a pattern or set anything up because they’re constantly being shuffled in and out. The theory is that they’ll be fresh. That theory has now been proven to have just as much down side as it does ‘advantages’. (And this says nothing about how much draft capital you have to spend to actually get this to work.)

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I think August would be 8 months?  Did he come back last time in about the same amount of time?

 

Let's wait and see.

[Royale with Cheese]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Let's wait and see.

 

[Billl]

Von was 24 years old last time.  34 year old bodies don't tend to recover quite as quickly.  That's not to say he can't do it again, but there's certainly no guarantee that he will either.

[BADOLBILZ]

4 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

Yup. Rousseau is a good complimentary DE drafted to fill a need with a cost controlled contract for 4-5 seasons. Not a jersey I’d recommend someone buy. 

 

 

He's more than that.........and that's where the underlying data helps tell the real story.

 

As a rookie, playing in a rotation,  he tied for the NFL lead in run stops by a defensive lineman.

 

This isn't Edmunds-mystery impact analysis.........Rousseau literally produces and that's why he stands out in the final analysis.

 

The sacks that he gets that some see as "cheap" are often deep, in-pocket sacks that bendy, arch running DE's can't get because they are 5+ yards past the LOS before they get around their block.

 

In that regard.......he and Miller make a great 1-2 punch.

 

And yes, they lost that when Miller went down.......but people act like Von Miller's production wasn't Rousseau-aided.

 

Von Miller was on pace for his best pass rush production per-snap since 2012.

[Sharky7337]

Elite at dissapearing .... jk I always appreciate his run defense

[SCBills]

Rousseau in a nice DL2 when you have an elite DL1 out there.. which we had with Von.

 

Think Frank Clark with Chris Jones.

 

Frank Clark isn't doing anything to scare anyone when Chris Jones isn't on the field, but when Jones has been out there the past few years, a guy like Clark becomes dangerous.  

 

With where we're drafting, it may make more sense to look for elite pocket collapsing DT's.  Then we can take flyers on pass rushers to look better than they are if we constantly have top tier DT play.. and then hope we hit on one and/or have the ability to bring in a big FA every few years.

 

Edited February 8, 2023 by SCBills

[In Summary]

5 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

I believe McDs strategy of rotating defensive linemen is actually part of the problem with the pass rush. The Bills have had a plethora of guys trying to get to the QB over the last five years. The common denominator is that none of them has been allowed to develop a pattern or set anything up because they’re constantly being shuffled in and out. The theory is that they’ll be fresh. That theory has now been proven to have just as much down side as it does ‘advantages’. (And this says nothing about how much draft capital you have to spend to actually get this to work.)

Arguably, you're committing to 8 starting level D linemen to play this rotational scheme while at the same time you only have 4 starting level O linemen.  

[SoCal Deek]

33 minutes ago, In Summary said:

Arguably, you're committing to 8 starting level D linemen to play this rotational scheme while at the same time you only have 4 starting level O linemen.  

Exactly. And the chances of getting an NFL level pass rush with this ridiculous system are slim and none. 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

9 hours ago, Billl said:

Von was 24 years old last time.  34 year old bodies don't tend to recover quite as quickly.  That's not to say he can't do it again, but there's certainly no guarantee that he will either.

Pshhhh speak for yourself! 

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

15 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:

Fair enough.   As I said in my original post neither Highsmith or Sweat was a full time starter, Reddick played ILB.  To add to that Chris Jones was a full time Defensive Tackle, now he moves between end and DT.

 

Can you look at that list and honestly tell me you think Rousseau is anywhere near the player Bosa or Chris Jones is? 

 

 Bosa? No, nor should he be. Bosa was a 2nd overall pick, Groot was the 30th pick. DEs that are 2nd overall picks should outplay DEs that are 30th overall picks by a good margin.

 

Do I think he could have a career like Chris Jones, as far as sacks are concerned, sure. Jones has 2 years where he's had 15.5 sacks, the other 5 he failed to hit double digits

 

 On top of that you're talking about a 4 year pro & a 7 year pro vs a 2 year pro, they have experience on him. He had 8 sacks in 13 games. I could see him getting 10-14 sacks on a yearly basis starting next year. That very Chris Jones like, even a little better. Which makes sense because Jones' draft position was much closer to Groot's(30th vs 37th). He showed improvement. He had twice as many sacks this year vs last year, in 4 less games.

 

 

 

[colin]

at this point he's not great but he's good, which puts him WAYYYYY ahead of our DL draft schedule based on recent history.

 

the more i look at where we have invested money and picks, the more i am convinced that the modern nfl, and our team particularly, needs stars and can fill in the rest w jags and draft picks.

 

we have so many jags to jags+ (party due to their position, our d needs DL and protects CBs, so we shouldn't have a ton invested in salary of DBs, but we do) and not enough play makers.

 

groot has a shot at being a playmaker, but the odds are long.  at the very least he's a good player, and keeping a guy like him (at a premium position) can help us win a chip if he's aided by actual star playmakers.

[Green Lightning]

19 hours ago, SCBills said:

Rousseau in a nice DL2 when you have an elite DL1 out there.. which we had with Von.

 

Think Frank Clark with Chris Jones.

 

Frank Clark isn't doing anything to scare anyone when Chris Jones isn't on the field, but when Jones has been out there the past few years, a guy like Clark becomes dangerous.  

 

With where we're drafting, it may make more sense to look for elite pocket collapsing DT's.  Then we can take flyers on pass rushers to look better than they are if we constantly have top tier DT play.. and then hope we hit on one and/or have the ability to bring in a big FA every few years.

 

This. I see Groot as a Phil Hansen type who perfectly complemented Bruce. Great run stopper and edge setter who could also get sacks. Not elite but a solid piece of the D. My biggest disappointment is Ed Oliver. Precious top ten D pick that is just okay. 

[SoCal Deek]

14 hours ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

 Bosa? No, nor should he be. Bosa was a 2nd overall pick, Groot was the 30th pick. DEs that are 2nd overall picks should outplay DEs that are 30th overall picks by a good margin.

 

Do I think he could have a career like Chris Jones, as far as sacks are concerned, sure. Jones has 2 years where he's had 15.5 sacks, the other 5 he failed to hit double digits

 

 On top of that you're talking about a 4 year pro & a 7 year pro vs a 2 year pro, they have experience on him. He had 8 sacks in 13 games. I could see him getting 10-14 sacks on a yearly basis starting next year. That very Chris Jones like, even a little better. Which makes sense because Jones' draft position was much closer to Groot's(30th vs 37th). He showed improvement. He had twice as many sacks this year vs last year, in 4 less games.

 

 

 

Now do Ed Oliver.