Week 6: Bills at CHIEFS 10/16 4:25pm

[wjag]

2 minutes ago, Logic said:

 

 

Which supports my statement upthread that they are unstoppable inside the 20.  Hell inside the 10.  The Bills have to keep them outside the 20.  That's pretty damn impressive for both teams for very different reasons.

[2003Contenders]

While everyone remembers the 13-second fiasco in the playoff game, what really drove a stake into the heart of the Bills' defense was allowing Mahomes to move around in the pocket, evade rushers, scramble, and buy time for his receivers. If the front 7 can make him uncomfortable (as the Raiders did in the first half last night), I love our chances!

 

Hopefully Von was taking notes on what Chandler Jones did in the 1st half last night.

[Royale with Cheese]

8 minutes ago, Logic said:

 

 

This is absolutely insane.

[SCBills]

15 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Your points 2, 3, 4 and 10 are why KC is the better team and I have a hard time seeing the Bills beating them, especially in a january playoff game in BUF or KC.

 

Beane has done a great job building depth on the DL, but we still don't have a true Chris Jones type of game wrecker in the middle. Yes Von Miller is still very good but Mahomes has proven he is a master of evading pressure from the edge and it's pressure up the middle that has been a problem for him and most QB's, including the worst game of his career in the SB against the Bucs a few years ago.

 

Bills offensive line is all about finesse and one of the reasons the Raiders fared well last night and had a chance to win is because they were able to run the ball effectively. I'm still not sure the Bills can do this consistently which will ultimately be their downfall again in the playoffs.

 

Who knows what happens Sunday, especially with us still dealing with the injury bug, but all we can do is envision these two teams at full health come Playoff time..

 

QB - Push

DL - Bills (Stats don't lie - BUF has more sacks and allows less rush yards per game, all while dealing with injuries)

LB - Bills (Bolton is really good.  Edmunds/Milano are better)

CB - Bills (Tre, Jackson/Elam/Benford, Johnson are better than Sneed, Felton, McDuffie, Watson etc)

S - Bills (Poyer/Hamlin > Reid/Thornhill)

OL - Chiefs

RB - Push (Neither team has game changers currently)

TE - Chiefs

WR - Bills

 

Neither team is weak anywhere, but right now we're looking at two elite pass offenses, and one elite defense (Bills).  Chiefs can run the ball better, but we all know come playoff time, Buffalo will have a running game one way (RB's) or another (Allen). 

[Big Turk]

12 minutes ago, wjag said:

 

Which supports my statement upthread that they are unstoppable inside the 20.  Hell inside the 10.  The Bills have to keep them outside the 20.  That's pretty damn impressive for both teams for very different reasons.

 

They are very good, but not quite unstoppable. Tennessee is the closest thing to that as they rank #1 in RZ TD Percentage at over 92% NO is 2nd at 80% and then KC at a little over 78%.  Bills are not that good at 21st with only 55.6%.

 

On D, Bills rank 9th in RZ TD Percentage allowed thanks to Steelers going 0 for 4.  KC is a dreadful 31st, allowing TDs on over 81% of their opponent trips. Funny the only team worse is the Raiders, their oponent last night which explains a lot.

 

 

Edited October 11, 2022 by Big Turk

[Billever76]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

The injury status of the Bills roster is the defining factor of this game, in my mind.

I am confident that if Buffalo has Poyer, Edmunds, Knox, and McKenzie on the field, they can win this game. 

If they are missing any or all of those guys, my confidence in a victory goes down significantly.

At the end of the day, I have the gnawing feeling that last year's script will be reversed: We'll drop this game to KC in the regular season (largely due to injury depletion and missing guys like Tre White), but then beat them in the playoffs. I'd take that trade-off.

One thing's for sure: This game very well may decide the #1 seed in the AFC playoffs. Big, big game.

I'm 100% confident in Shakir taking Mckenzie place if he is asked to do so...infact I think Shakir is an upgrade o er Mckenzie even though he is inexperienced 

9 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

Who knows what happens Sunday, especially with us still dealing with the injury bug, but all we can do is envision these two teams at full health come Playoff time..

 

QB - Push

DL - Bills (Stats don't lie - BUF has more sacks and allows less rush yards per game, all while dealing with injuries)

LB - Bills (Bolton is really good.  Edmunds/Milano are better)

CB - Bills (Tre, Jackson/Elam/Benford, Johnson are better than Sneed, Felton, McDuffie, Watson etc)

S - Bills (Poyer/Hamlin > Reid/Thornhill)

OL - Chiefs

RB - Push (Neither team has game changers currently)

TE - Chiefs

WR - Bills

 

Neither team is weak anywhere, but right now we're looking at two elite pass offenses, and one elite defense (Bills).  Chiefs can run the ball better, but we all know come playoff time, Buffalo will have a running game one way (RB's) or another (Allen). 

Better check those chiefs tackles on their oline....they have been turnstiles 

[Big Turk]

Also, the unstoppable force meets the immovable object.  2nd half points, the Bills have only given up 7 all year long, the Chiefs rank 2nd in the NFL averaging 15.4 per game. This may very well be the deciding factor.  If the Bills make adjustments that shut down the Chiefs offense in the 2nd half they win this game going away, IMO.

 

Bills are 6th in the NFL averaging 14 points per game in the 2nd half while KC on D is 23rd allowing 12.2 points per game on average in the 2nd half.

 

 

[Scott7975]

2 hours ago, beebe said:

Where do the Chiefs have an advantage over the Bills? Anywhere? The Bills have a better overall pass offense. They have a better run defense. They have a better pass defense. They are more reliable in the kicking game with Butker out. The only area where KC is better is in the run game. But over the last 2.5 years, I can only think of one game where the Chiefs won primarily due to a run-first approach. It just so happened to be the game vs the Bills in 2020 (you could argue last week vs Bucs too, but Mahomes was pretty special in that one and did his fair share.) 

 

The 2020 game, the Chiefs followed the blueprint laid out by the Titans a week prior. Buffalo's run D was brutal. KC took advantage. The Bills addressed that issue, got better as the season wore on, and has since evolved into an elite unit. If the Chiefs try to go run heavy (I think there's a strong chance they do), the Bills will get enough early-down stops to force the 50/50 3rd-and-longs and will get off the field enough times. 

 

I just don't see KC's defense getting off the field once the Bills cross midfield. Buffalo is too hard to stop in four-down territory. 

 

Outside of Mahomes doing Mahomes things and Arrowhead Stadium magic, I just don't see KC being a serious threat here. I think the Bills get ahead early, maintain a lead throughout, and the Chiefs (if they play well) will keep it close but never seriously threaten. These teams are simply in different places right now. 

 

The Chiefs are certainly a threat.  One of the few that can keep up with the Bills offense.  Kelce is the best TE in game.  I think their offensive system itself is an advantage.  Their offense has an answer for everything.  Sometimes QBs get confused by defenses.  I think that the Chiefs can do so much that defenses can get confused by their offense.  Once Reid figures out how the defense attacks, he is very good at calling plays to counter it.

[SCBills]

5 minutes ago, Billever76 said:

I'm 100% confident in Shakir taking Mckenzie place if he is asked to do so...infact I think Shakir is an upgrade o er Mckenzie even though he is inexperienced 

Better check those chiefs tackles on their oline....they have been turnstiles 

 

Agreed.  I gave the Chiefs OL an edge over the Bills OL due to their current ability to create a traditional run game, but if those Tackles keep getting wrecked, it may be time to revisit. 

[Big Turk]

Chiefs are allowing the 3rd highest completion percentage in the NFL on D at almost 70%.

[ColoradoBills]

3 minutes ago, 2003Contenders said:

While everyone remembers the 13-second fiasco in the playoff game, what really drove a stake into the heart of the Bills' defense was allowing Mahomes to move around in the pocket, evade rushers, scramble, and buy time for his receivers. If the front 7 can make him uncomfortable (as the Raiders did in the first half last night), I love our chances!

 

Hopefully Von was taking notes on what Chandler Jones did in the 1st half last night.

 

It seems simple to me.  The game will be driven by the following:

 

Which QB has more time to throw the ball effectively.

Which QB can better evade the rush and run the ball better.

Which secondary can play better than the opponents secondary.

 

The rest is up to the normal game changers.  Turnovers, Special Teams and Luck.

 

This is going to be a QB duel.

 

[bobobonators]

16 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

Who knows what happens Sunday, especially with us still dealing with the injury bug, but all we can do is envision these two teams at full health come Playoff time..

 

QB - Push

DL - Bills (Stats don't lie - BUF has more sacks and allows less rush yards per game, all while dealing with injuries)

LB - Bills (Bolton is really good.  Edmunds/Milano are better)

CB - Bills (Tre, Jackson/Elam/Benford, Johnson are better than Sneed, Felton, McDuffie, Watson etc)

S - Bills (Poyer/Hamlin > Reid/Thornhill)

OL - Chiefs

RB - Push (Neither team has game changers currently)

TE - Chiefs

WR - Bills

 

Neither team is weak anywhere, but right now we're looking at two elite pass offenses, and one elite defense (Bills).  Chiefs can run the ball better, but we all know come playoff time, Buffalo will have a running game one way (RB's) or another (Allen). 

i agree with most of this. X-factor is coaching. I absolutely love McD and wouldn’t replace him for anyone. That being said, Andy Reid and Mahomes have been doing this longer and have an undeniable chemistry/mojo between them and within their offense. 
 

McD and the coaching staff need to get over that hurdle.

 

These teams are fairly equal w personnel. Coaching and player execution will win the game ultimately. 

[cba fan]

18 hours ago, TH3 said:

They lost to the Colts

1 and a 1/2 game lead

 

this is not baseball where they denote standings differences by half games.

NFL denotes full games only. Buf/KC winner has tiebreaker so it is effectively two games lead.

[TH3]

2 minutes ago, cba fan said:

 

this is not baseball where they denote standings differences by half games.

NFL denotes full games only. Buf/KC winner has tiebreaker so it is effectively two games lead.

No

[ColoradoBills]

5 minutes ago, bobobonators said:

i agree with most of this. X-factor is coaching. I absolutely love McD and wouldn’t replace him for anyone. That being said, Andy Reid and Mahomes have been doing this longer and have an undeniable chemistry/mojo between them and within their offense. 
 

McD and the coaching staff need to get over that hurdle.

 

These teams are fairly equal w personnel. Coaching and player execution will win the game ultimately. 

 

I'm not dismissing coaching, but I think it's just going to be a shootout between 2 great QBs.

[Scott7975]

2 hours ago, BeavercreekBillsFan said:

Some keys:

1. Frazier has to change things up. We can’t just play soft zone every time against these bums. Mahomes is just too good. The numbers say don’t blitz Mahomes but we need a wrinkle here and there. That said, we specifically paid Von to play in this game. Brown struggled last night against the speed of Chandler Jones, so Von needs to have the same impact. 

2. I don’t expect us to stop Mahomes much at all based on Fraziers track record against him. And Mahomes seems bored in most games but his eyes light up when it’s josh Allen on the other side. Because of that, we have to win a shootout in my opinion. This game will be won if Josh plays incredible again. The raiders showed the KC secondary is vulnerable so need to take advantage. 

 

3. Chris Jones in an absolute problem. Frank Clark too. They’ll get a sack or 2, but just can’t let those be strip sacks that give Mahomes a short field. 

4. A sneaky thing but Chavarious Ward is luckily gone now. He’s wrapped Diggs up the last few times and seems to be Diggs kryptonite with how handsy he is. Diggs needs to show up this time. He only had 3 catches for 7 yards in the divisional game in January. Hopefully ward being gone helps with that. The offense just works so much better when 14 is involved. 

5. chiefs ran the ball all over Tampa, so can we slow them down? They’ll want to run the ball to keep it from josh. Gotta man up and stop them and get josh the ball as much as possible. 
 

6. same is true for us also. We will see light boxes. Can we run the ball enough to keep the ball away from Mahomes? 
 

 

 

I dont think its "dont blitz Mahomes."  I've seen quite a few blitzes be effective against him this year.  I think its pick and choose the right moments to blitz him and make sure its a free runner that gets home.  Even if its not a sack it has to get there fast enough that he throws the ball away.

[cba fan]

4 minutes ago, TH3 said:

No

Yes.

 

if KC beats Bills they will be 5-1 Bills will be 4-2.

That is a "one game" lead but since KC would own the tiebreaker head to head win it is effectively a "two game" lead.

 

Bills would need to win out and KC would need to lose "two games" for Bills to have home field.

Edited October 11, 2022 by cba fan

[eball]

4 hours ago, BananaB said:

Didn’t the Bungles just beat them at home in the playoffs?

 

Don't stop him, he's on a roll...

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, Process said:

 

 

He is definitely no Pickett.  Pickett would just go get involved instead hiding behind a big fat coach talking trash.

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

32 minutes ago, 2003Contenders said:

While everyone remembers the 13-second fiasco in the playoff game, what really drove a stake into the heart of the Bills' defense was allowing Mahomes to move around in the pocket, evade rushers, scramble, and buy time for his receivers. If the front 7 can make him uncomfortable (as the Raiders did in the first half last night), I love our chances!

 

Hopefully Von was taking notes on what Chandler Jones did in the 1st half last night.

This is the kind of game a guy like Von Miller came to Buffalo to play in. The whole football world was blown away by the playoff game last year. I would not be surprised if Von took more snaps in this game than in others. Chiefs week is here.