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RD 1, Pick 23: CB Kaiir Elam, Florida


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6 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Saffold has played RG and was told "for now" they expect he'd be playing LG

 

One can make an argument, sure

 

He's played all but 2 seasons on the left side and most of his career at LG, including the last 6 seasons and 7 of his last 8.  There's no reason to switch him to RG, unless Bates can't handle it.  But I'd rather not have a rookie making a side switch in a SB season for the Bills.

Edited by Doc
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7 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Question: what are these sources, and why is it reasonable to think "most teams" had McDuffie higher?

 

I understand you're a Chiefs fan, so it's reasonable of you to think that the Chiefs got the better, more highly ranked player.  But we've seen over and over that how teams rank players, and how press draft pundits rank players, are not the same thing.

 

Maybe it's just hopeful thinking on my part, but if the Bills were calling around trying to get up to #20, I think it's possible they were hoping to get a player at a different position - Zion Johnson or Trevor Penning, or perhaps Treylon Burks (less likely I think).  Once those players were gone ahead of pick 20, it was time for "plan B".

 

I tried to be careful in my wording when explaining this...I have no sources.  I know teams rank players differently.  I never claimed that the Bills certainly had Elam in front of McDuffie or vice versa.  I make the assumption that many teams likely had McDuffie ahead of Elam based on all the big boards and all the mock drafts that always had McDuffie drafted significantly higher.  Again, that isn't proof that was the case.  I don't claim to know how Beane had them ranked.  The only thing we know for sure is that the Chiefs did have McDuffie ranked higher than Elam because they had their pick of both and chose McDuffie.  It's ENTIRELY possible that Beane could have believed the Chiefs or others had Elam ranked higher and once the draft got to pick 20, he was on the phone making the effort to secure Elam.  that is all possible.  I also noted that KC, if Elam would have been the guy we ended up with...would also have been happy.  The fans would like it...and so on.  

 

When the draft is going on and a team is deciding if they need to move up or drop or stay put, they are making a calculated choice based on the information they have and drawing conclusions about the best way to proceed.  Let's take the Chiefs moving up out of this...lets just say that McDuffie is off the board and we are approaching pick 21 or so and Elam is the CB still on the board when pick 23 is coming up...the Bills at 25 do not "know" what the Cowboys will do...or who else might have Elam rated where.  They moved from 25 to 23 because...just like I have done here....they made some assumptions based on the information available, that to secure Elam, they would need to get to 23 to do so.  It's very reasonable to conclude that the Cowboys may have taken him, and that other teams were calling about getting to 23 for him.  Many in this thread have made that very case.  I've done nothing different in forming my conclusion.

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3 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

I tried to be careful in my wording when explaining this...I have no sources.  I know teams rank players differently.  I never claimed that the Bills certainly had Elam in front of McDuffie or vice versa.  I make the assumption that many teams likely had McDuffie ahead of Elam based on all the big boards and all the mock drafts that always had McDuffie drafted significantly higher.  Again, that isn't proof that was the case.  I don't claim to know how Beane had them ranked.  The only thing we know for sure is that the Chiefs did have McDuffie ranked higher than Elam because they had their pick of both and chose McDuffie.  It's ENTIRELY possible that Beane could have believed the Chiefs or others had Elam ranked higher and once the draft got to pick 20, he was on the phone making the effort to secure Elam.  that is all possible.  I also noted that KC, if Elam would have been the guy we ended up with...would also have been happy.  The fans would like it...and so on.  

 

When the draft is going on and a team is deciding if they need to move up or drop or stay put, they are making a calculated choice based on the information they have and drawing conclusions about the best way to proceed.  Let's take the Chiefs moving up out of this...lets just say that McDuffie is off the board and we are approaching pick 21 or so and Elam is the CB still on the board when pick 23 is coming up...the Bills at 25 do not "know" what the Cowboys will do...or who else might have Elam rated where.  They moved from 25 to 23 because...just like I have done here....they made some assumptions based on the information available, that to secure Elam, they would need to get to 23 to do so.  It's very reasonable to conclude that the Cowboys may have taken him, and that other teams were calling about getting to 23 for him.  Many in this thread have made that very case.  I've done nothing different in forming my conclusion.

 

I agree with everything you said.  What we're saying is that it's unlikely the Bills had McDuffie ranked higher than Elam because Elam fits the Bills' scheme and McDuffie does not.

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4 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

I agree with everything you said.  What we're saying is that it's unlikely the Bills had McDuffie ranked higher than Elam because Elam fits the Bills' scheme and McDuffie does not.

 

I think we can agree that both KC and the Bills were calling teams starting at 20 and both were looking to move up for a CB...and as Veach said, he believed he had to get in front of the Bills...at minimum Veach thought they were going for McDuffie...and Beane believed KC and others were going up for a CB, quite possibly Elam.  The idea that KC and the Bills were both hunting Corners is true.  If nothing else, it's interesting that both teams felt the players available at 20 were worthwhile to make moves for.  

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I would add, that from a Bills and Bills fan perspective...the argument that the Bills had to get to 23 for Elam...I think is correct, and therefore, getting to 23 was a very good move by Beane.  

 

For those of you who think the Bills wasted a 4th to move up 2 spots.....

 

Consider that the Cowboys ended up taking OT Tyler Smith.  CLEARLY the Cowboys made a panic move here.  

They have their CB2 possibly in some serious legal trouble...and at any rate, teams can always use 3 good CB's even if you like your CB2 well enough.  You can not convince me that Tyler Smith was ahead of Elam on anyones draft board.  Project OT/G types do not get ranked ahead of CB1 types.  EVER.

 

The Cowboys, got caught with their pants down.  The run on OG/T types that were much better prospects, that the Cowboys would have been happier with...went earlier than they thought I am sure.  Both Zion Johnson and Kenyon Green (the guy Dallas really wanted) we long gone.  Trevor Penning was gon at 19.  The Cowboys are not averse to seeing their guys go in front of them, but then just taking BPA on their board...thats how they got Parsons last year when Horn and Surtain went right in front of them.  Elam was the guy they were prepared to take.  When Beane moved up and took him...the Cowboys panicked.  They had to take Tyler Smith...he was the last G/T prospect of note available to them, in a year when they had glaring holes in their line.  Smith could have been had later.  

 

Smith was the last non Center O lineman taken until pick 57.  Total panic move. 

 

Living here in the DFW Metroplex...it warms my heart whenever the Cowboys do something to cause the Cowboy fanbase angst....and this certainly has.  :D

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I’m happy with this pick, everything I’ve read and seen sounds great.
 

One thing though: I’ve gone through most pages here, and I’m surprised to see no mention that his uncle and fellow #1 pick S Matt Elam was a major bust for Ozzie and the Ravens not too long ago.

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7 minutes ago, Rico said:

I’m happy with this pick, everything I’ve read and seen sounds great.
 

One thing though: I’ve gone through most pages here, and I’m surprised to see no mention that his uncle and fellow #1 pick S Matt Elam was a major bust for Ozzie and the Ravens not too long ago.

 

Yeah but Jason Elam was a great K...

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1 hour ago, Doc said:

 

I agree with everything you said.  What we're saying is that it's unlikely the Bills had McDuffie ranked higher than Elam because Elam fits the Bills' scheme and McDuffie does not.

 

THANY YOU for the CliffsNote version! 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Rico said:

I’m happy with this pick, everything I’ve read and seen sounds great.
 

One thing though: I’ve gone through most pages here, and I’m surprised to see no mention that his uncle and fellow #1 pick S Matt Elam was a major bust for Ozzie and the Ravens not too long ago.

Kaiir Elam is Matt Elams' nephew. I googled. Interesting fact thanks Rico

 

EDIT: I just realized you had written uncle I didn't see that before. all told still an interesting fact.

Edited by muppy
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2 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Tre

Elam

Dane 

____ UFA (Haden/Fuller/?)

Benford


Nickel: Taron / Neal 

 

PS: Griffen/Mcleod/Cam Lewis

 

Even without signing another veteran DB, the Bills might have to make a difficult roster decision or two in the secondary when the time comes. I see Johnson and Neal both being roster locks. 

 

CB locks: White, Elam, Jackson, Johnson

S locks: Hyde, Poyer (ignoring contract-based complications), Johnson, Hamlin

"DB" locks: Neal

 

That lineup matches last year's except for Elam replacing Wallace. We should probably anticipate the likelihood of this. If Benford is really enticing as a flexible ST/DB contributor, then maybe he sneaks into the final 53 somehow. 

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As a Gator fan, I was already calling for Beane to take Elam. Glad it panned out. He has been the bright spot in Gainesville on an otherwise struggling unit. Make no mistake though, taking on the opposite side of the best DB in the NFL is going to be a big mountain to climb. 

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

Even without signing another veteran DB, the Bills might have to make a difficult roster decision or two in the secondary when the time comes. I see Johnson and Neal both being roster locks. 

 

CB locks: White, Elam, Jackson, Johnson

S locks: Hyde, Poyer (ignoring contract-based complications), Johnson, Hamlin

"DB" locks: Neal

 

That lineup matches last year's except for Elam replacing Wallace. We should probably anticipate the likelihood of this. If Benford is really enticing as a flexible ST/DB contributor, then maybe he sneaks into the final 53 somehow. 

 

Benford may be competing with Taiwan Jones for the gunner position. 

 

Someone in the Tenuta thread brought up Chris Hairston, and I had to look up to remember where we took him, which was the 4th round in 2011. And I noticed Taiwan Jones went 3 picks later...

 

All that to say, Taiwan's been around for a long time. 

 

 

Edited by Motorin'
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9 minutes ago, JoeF said:

https://www.buffalobills.com/video/exclusive-behind-the-scenes-look-at-the-2022-buffalo-bills-nfl-draft-war-room

 

Another good video.  He had McD when he pulled out the notebook in Indy.  McD tried to stay straight faced but he was impressed.

 

Nice.  McD looked thirsty looking at that notebook.  :lol:

 

And looks like they were willing to offer their 2nd pick of the 6th round (185) as well to move up to 23, but didn't need to.  BTW I'd like to know what chart they're using since Gray said "we'd lose by 5 (points)"?  The one I've been using says they'd lose by 17.8.

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17 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

I would add, that from a Bills and Bills fan perspective...the argument that the Bills had to get to 23 for Elam...I think is correct, and therefore, getting to 23 was a very good move by Beane.  

 

For those of you who think the Bills wasted a 4th to move up 2 spots.....

 

Consider that the Cowboys ended up taking OT Tyler Smith.  CLEARLY the Cowboys made a panic move here.  

They have their CB2 possibly in some serious legal trouble...and at any rate, teams can always use 3 good CB's even if you like your CB2 well enough.  You can not convince me that Tyler Smith was ahead of Elam on anyones draft board.  Project OT/G types do not get ranked ahead of CB1 types.  EVER.

 

The Cowboys, got caught with their pants down.  The run on OG/T types that were much better prospects, that the Cowboys would have been happier with...went earlier than they thought I am sure.  Both Zion Johnson and Kenyon Green (the guy Dallas really wanted) we long gone.  Trevor Penning was gon at 19.  The Cowboys are not averse to seeing their guys go in front of them, but then just taking BPA on their board...thats how they got Parsons last year when Horn and Surtain went right in front of them.  Elam was the guy they were prepared to take.  When Beane moved up and took him...the Cowboys panicked.  They had to take Tyler Smith...he was the last G/T prospect of note available to them, in a year when they had glaring holes in their line.  Smith could have been had later.  

 

Smith was the last non Center O lineman taken until pick 57.  Total panic move. 

 

Living here in the DFW Metroplex...it warms my heart whenever the Cowboys do something to cause the Cowboy fanbase angst....and this certainly has.  :D

This is the answer.  We know the Chiefs got their preferred guy, we know the Bills got someone they coveted significantly more than the next CB on the board, and we know the Cowboys got got.

 

Buffalo and Kansas City are both excellent at finding and developing DBs.  I didn’t think we had a shot at McDuffie without a trade, and I thought we had about a 50-50 chance of Elam falling to us.  I would have been happy drafting him at 30, and I think both will be excellent players.

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There's been a lot of talk about the trade up  I thought it was probably a good idea, but I don't know all that Beane may have known/been thinking.  Didn't like giving up the fourth.  

 

As I thought about, and especially after having watched the video of Beane making the decision, I had another thought about that kind of decision.   Essentially, what Beane did was see the right guy sitting on his board who filled the number one need the team had.   Elam would give the Bills two first-round picks at corner for the next four or five years.   He knew he needed to be sure that he got Elam.  Sure.  Not a 60% chance, not an 80% chance, not a 95% chance.   Sure.   So he paid the price to be sure.

 

You know who else made that kind of decision.  The Pegulas.   The story is that when the Pegulas were bidding to buy the Bills, they had an offer in, maybe it was $1 billion.  Mrs. Wilson called for final bids from all bidders.  The Pegulas' consultant recommended a bid of $1.1 million.  The Pegulas asked what the likelihood was that they'd get the team at $1.1, and the consultant said 95%.   They asked what it would cost to get to 100%.  Consultant said $1.2 billion.   Pegulas said. "bid $1.2."   

 

Beane and the Pegulas both said, "We need to be sure."   

 

It's interesting decisiveness.   You have to pay to play, and Beane was willing to pay.

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