What is your "Win Now" off-season scenario?

[BarleyNY]

19 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

 

1- Trade pick 25 and the 2023 1st round pick for DK Metcalf. The Bills without Cole and Mac in this scenario could use more fire power. Metcalf would allow the Bills to move Diggs to the slot and have another dynamic weapon for Josh. It would cost the Bills in the future but for Seattle the return on DK is solid a late 1st this year and another future 1st in their back pocket allows them flexibility going into a 2023 draft that is more than likely to have better QB's. This scenario opens up if the Seahwaks trade Wilson and go full rebuild. Hard to pass up two firsts and not have to give an extension. 

 

That would be a big overpay for Metcalf.  He’s on the last year of his rookie deal and contract parameters are a major factor in any trade.  You’re proposing two firsts for a one year WR rental.  See the Diggs trade for better parameters and keep in mind that Diggs is a better WR and was on a long term, very reasonable contract.  If we were to trade for him the cost would be less than that and a new contract would have to be agreed upon prior to the trade. 

[Albwan]

Find an Aaron Donald.

[Solomon Grundy]

20 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

1- Restructure everyone eligible outside of Haack, Star and Mongo. This would get the Bills to 26.7 million in cap space. 

2- Cut Mongo (Assuming he won't take a pay cut), Haack, Cole Beasley and post June 1st cut Star. This would get the Bills to 41.5 million in cap space. 

3- Resign Bates, Levi Wallace, Phillips, T.Jones, Ike (assuming he takes a non-guaranteed deal), and Zimmer. Backloading Phillips and Levi's deal that would take you down to about 25 million in cap space. 

4- I would also mull over an Edumonds extension to lower his cap hit a few million as a margin for error in this scenario. 

This^^^. In the draft, I’d try to trade 25 to move down high in 2nd rd and acquire another low 3rd/high 4th rounder. From there I’m going like this:

2a) Breece Hall-RB (traded pick)

2b) Travis Jones-DT (Bills original pick)

3) Alec Pierce-WR (Bills pick)

3/4) Best interior offensive lineman (traded pick)

4) Juanyeh Thomas-DB (Bills pick)

5) Jelani Woods-TE

6) Matt Araiza-P

 

I’d then try to lure Calais Campbell to Buffalo for DL depth and Rousseau development. Resign Jerry Hughes if I can’t get Chandler Jones on a team friendly deal.

 

57 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

That would be a big overpay for Metcalf.  He’s on the last year of his rookie deal and contract parameters are a major factor in any trade.  You’re proposing two firsts for a one year WR rental.  See the Diggs trade for better parameters and keep in mind that Diggs is a better WR and was on a long term, very reasonable contract.  If we were to trade for him the cost would be less than that and a new contract would have to be agreed upon prior to the trade. 

Metcalf displayed a diva disposition in Seattle last season. I’m waiting to see Alec Pierce 40 time at combine 

[Solomon Grundy]

20 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

- I wouldn't pay Calais Campbell that much.........he'd be a nice addition but he is not a playmaker anymore.........more of a run defense addition.

This is a big need for this team, don’t you think? Would also help in the development of Rousseau 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1. Trade Edmunds for a #2 and a # 5 in 2022. Doubt you can get a #1 but someone will pay a #2

2. Sign Phillips and Hughes

3. Cut Jones, Haack, Gilliam, Ford, Star, Feliciano, Kumerow, and Addison

4. Sign one of the top guards to a 3 yr deal

5. Sign a veteran middle tier CB

6. Draft DT, CB, Edge, LB  in the first 100 picks

7. 4th round take C/G

8. 5th round take best punter in the draft

9. Trade all the rest of the picks away for picks in next years draft

10. Restructure Williams, Matakevich

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Einstein's Dog said:

And it goes the other way on the misconception of Knox salary.  A Hooper ($10M), R Tonyan (spotrac est $10.8M), and J Smith ($12M) all didn't go over 500 yards. Market data is out there, with more to come- R Tonyan and D Schultz are FAs this year. Last year Hunter/J Smith got $12M, Goedert $14M.

 

Beane and Co need to factor in a market rate TE so we can continue to have a top notch offense. Prices don't drop. One advantage to drafting and developing is extending and paying market rates a year early. You do that with Knox.

 

Knox offers continuity, upside, culture fit, and the odds on favorite to be the best TE the Bills have ever had.  It boggles my mind that some people don't even want to pay him the market rate.

 

Oh I think that it's pretty well set in stone that a promising young TE is going to make $10M on the open market...........no misconception there.........the question is whether Knox deserves to be considered one of those guys.

 

I let him play out his deal.........and here is why.

 

Knox barely reaches the level statistically..........remember, while a guy like Tonyan had less than 600 yards in his breakout season he also had a near 90% completion rate when thrown to..........which is astronomically higher than the likelihood of completing a pass to the inconsistent(but improving) Knox.    Schultz had an 800 yard season so that's not really a comp at this point,  he's reached a higher level.

 

As for the overpays in UFA last year...........this was often the case with WR's when there was a dearth of them in the mid 2010's as well...........but since then there has been a huge influx of young WR's.    

 

This years draft is LOADED at TE..........there are already more good TE's in the league than ever before and it appears to be a position where supply is very much on the rise.  

 

Personally,   I'd love to see the Bills sign Gronk to a 1 year $8M deal(with maybe $2M of that deferred) and run a lot of 12 personnel this season..........I love their explosiveness from 12.

 

But I'd also draft a TE in the middle rounds and let Knox play out his deal and THEN sign him if he actually elevates his game a bunch.........if he does not,   then you have a talented young TE in development in the fold.  

 

That's life as a contender.........you can't expect to re-sign everyone to long term deals...........the fact that Knox is among the best TE's the Bills have had doesn't matter much in the context of a league where there are MANY better one's.

 

[BADOLBILZ]

5 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

1. Trade Edmunds for a #2 and a # 5 in 2022. Doubt you can get a #1 but someone will pay a #2

2. Sign Phillips and Hughes

3. Cut Jones, Haack, Gilliam, Ford, Star, Feliciano, Kumerow, and Addison

4. Sign one of the top guards to a 3 yr deal

5. Sign a veteran middle tier CB

6. Draft DT, CB, Edge, LB  in the first 100 picks

7. 4th round take C/G

8. 5th round take best punter in the draft

9. Trade all the rest of the picks away for picks in next years draft

10. Restructure Williams, Matakevich

 

 

I just can't see anyone paying $13M for a 1 year rental on a MLB and giving up a second round pick to do it..............again,  it only takes one team..........but it doesn't make any sense.    We'd be mortified if the Bills traded a second round pick for a $13M rental middle-of-league guard or RB on a 1 year deal..........this is the equivalent.

 

I like @MrEpsYtown suggestion of maybe getting someone like Washington to trade Montez Sweat to Buffalo for Edmunds.   Sweat is coming off a down year and has a big 5th year option decision coming this offseason.    I think you'd probably still have to throw in more than Edmunds to get it done........but that is the kind of deal where you might get potential value in swapping distressed or devalued-by-contract-status assets.

 

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

9 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I just can't see anyone paying $13M for a 1 year rental on a MLB and giving up a second round pick to do it..............again,  it only takes one team..........but it doesn't make any sense.    We'd be mortified if the Bills traded a second round pick for a $13M rental middle-of-league guard or RB on a 1 year deal..........this is the equivalent.

 

I like @MrEpsYtown suggestion of maybe getting someone like Washington to trade Montez Sweat to Buffalo for Edmunds.   Sweat is coming off a down year and has a big 5th year option decision coming this offseason.    I think you'd probably still have to throw in more than Edmunds to get it done........but that is the kind of deal where you might get potential value in swapping distressed or devalued-by-contract-status assets.

 

 

Why is it a 1 yr rental? The team at trades for him can extend him or at a minimum tag him for two more years.

[BADOLBILZ]

8 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Why is it a 1 yr rental? The team at trades for him can extend him or at a minimum tag him for two more years.

 

It's a matter of team control.    Without it, trade value is greatly diminished.

 

If the Bills traded a #2 for a middle of league starting Guard or RB they could ALSO extend them...........being able to extend them if you desire does not make them value added it makes them like any NFL player on an expiring contract.    

 

You are not an Edmunds fan...........do you not think that a similar level of player will become available in free agency over the next two offseasons?    MLB's hit UFA all the time.........it's a position teams that don't have a lot of cap room compromise on all the time.   

[Einstein's Dog]

11 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Oh I think that it's pretty well set in stone that a promising young TE is going to make $10M on the open market...........no misconception there.........the question is whether Knox deserves to be considered one of those guys.

 

I let him play out his deal.........and here is why.

 

Knox barely reaches the level statistically..........remember, while a guy like Tonyan had less than 600 yards in his breakout season he also had a near 90% completion rate when thrown to..........which is astronomically higher than the likelihood of completing a pass to the inconsistent(but improving) Knox.    Schultz had an 800 yard season so that's not really a comp at this point,  he's reached a higher level.

 

As for the overpays in UFA last year...........this was often the case with WR's when there was a dearth of them in the mid 2010's as well...........but since then there has been a huge influx of young WR's.    

 

This years draft is LOADED at TE..........there are already more good TE's in the league than ever before and it appears to be a position where supply is very much on the rise.  

 

Personally,   I'd love to see the Bills sign Gronk to a 1 year $8M deal(with maybe $2M of that deferred) and run a lot of 12 personnel this season..........I love their explosiveness from 12.

 

But I'd also draft a TE in the middle rounds and let Knox play out his deal and THEN sign him if he actually elevates his game a bunch.........if he does not,   then you have a talented young TE in development in the fold.  

 

That's life as a contender.........you can't expect to re-sign everyone to long term deals...........the fact that Knox is among the best TE's the Bills have had doesn't matter much in the context of a league where there are MANY better one's.

 

We agree on a lot, but where we differ is on Knox, I think he is a keeper.  IMO, Knox is certainly on the Tonyan/Schultz/J Smith level.  And if you don't sign Knox you're going down a treachorous road.  The bandaids of Gronk or Ertz are not the long term solution.  And going into the full blown free agency market for a TE will get ugly.  I want the long term offensive team composition to include Knox and someone else.  Don't lose Knox, sign him early.

 

I'm with you on Gronk.  I would love to see it.  TE2 is a deficiency.  I rate Gronk over Ertz because of blocking.

 

I also agree on drafting a TE.  But it generally takes TEs time to develop.  The drafted TE would be more of a replacement for Gronk than Knox.

 

And yes, the fact that Knox is already among the best TEs the Bills have had shouldn't matter from a financial perspective.  But from a fans perspective I like it.  And Knox is kind of a poster child for some of the things the FO has been saying - build from within, pay your own, culture. Plus he is improving, getting better, not only does the market generally go up every year, Knox's trajectory has been strongly rising.  Lock him up early!

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Einstein's Dog said:

We agree on a lot, but where we differ is on Knox, I think he is a keeper.  IMO, Knox is certainly on the Tonyan/Schultz/J Smith level.  And if you don't sign Knox you're going down a treachorous road.  The bandaids of Gronk or Ertz are not the long term solution.  And going into the full blown free agency market for a TE will get ugly.  I want the long term offensive team composition to include Knox and someone else.  Don't lose Knox, sign him early.

 

I'm with you on Gronk.  I would love to see it.  TE2 is a deficiency.  I rate Gronk over Ertz because of blocking.

 

I also agree on drafting a TE.  But it generally takes TEs time to develop.  The drafted TE would be more of a replacement for Gronk than Knox.

 

And yes, the fact that Knox is already among the best TEs the Bills have had shouldn't matter from a financial perspective.  But from a fans perspective I like it.  And Knox is kind of a poster child for some of the things the FO has been saying - build from within, pay your own, culture. Plus he is improving, getting better, not only does the market generally go up every year, Knox's trajectory has been strongly rising.  Lock him up early!

 

 

Yeah I didn't have a problem with extending White, Dawkins or even Milano...........but Knox is certainly not on their level of accomplishment at the time.........as maybe the 14th-18th best starting TE in the league he's closer to replacement level than any of those players were.

 

Based on his modest career trajectory it wouldn't surprise if his ceiling was as a nice journeyman like Jared Cook......who has been a free agent 5 times now........we still don't know and can't be hung up on the fact that his numbers are good relative to past TE's in Buffalo.......it would be a problem if he floundered and they had to eat $20M in dead cap to get rid of him in a couple years.

 

I also really like the idea of making such an inconsistent player continue to work and develop elite habits to earn that big contract rather than handing it out speculatively and prematurely for fear of having to spend more if he becomes a top 5-10 TE.    If striving for excellence becomes ingrained you are more likely to get that from that previously enigmatic player in their second contract, IMO.   Human nature.

 

And fwiw.......Gronk would not be a TE2 in Buffalo unless Knox made a very big improvement..........Gronk was still a much better receiver than Knox in 2021 and of course he's a giant compared to Knox in the blocking aspect.........but in 12 personnel ranking wouldn't be as big of an issue.

 

 

Edited February 20, 2022 by BADOLBILZ

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

It's a matter of team control.    Without it, trade value is greatly diminished.

 

If the Bills traded a #2 for a middle of league starting Guard or RB they could ALSO extend them...........being able to extend them if you desire does not make them value added it makes them like any NFL player on an expiring contract.    

 

You are not an Edmunds fan...........do you not think that a similar level of player will become available in free agency over the next two offseasons?    MLB's hit UFA all the time.........it's a position teams that don't have a lot of cap room compromise on all the time.   

Seattle traded for Jamal Adams. Gave up a ransom for him and then extended him. Teams do this all the time. Usually with an understanding with the player/agent that they will extend them before the trade is made. Dallas with Amari Cooper is another example.

I want to rid the Bills of Edmunds and his contract. Klein and a top 100 rookie pick can do what Edmunds has done for the last four years. 

[BADOLBILZ]

9 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Seattle traded for Jamal Adams. Gave up a ransom for him and then extended him. Teams do this all the time. Usually with an understanding with the player/agent that they will extend them before the trade is made. Dallas with Amari Cooper is another example.

I want to rid the Bills of Edmunds and his contract. Klein and a top 100 rookie pick can do what Edmunds has done for the last four years. 

 

 

Teams really don't trade 2 first rounders for a safety "all the time"...........that was a very rare and regrettable move.     But they did it because Adams was a big play machine and first team All-Pro who fit their system.

 

Cooper was a 2 time 1,000 yard receiver at a premium position that, at the time, was bereft of talent around the league.   That trade is very different from the Adams deal.

 

Edmunds is not a star, we know this and his lack of Pro Bowl voting support indicates that the rest of the league knows it now too.........he's become a middle of the league starting MLB.........who almost impossibly manages to not make plays on the QB or the football.........and has an onerous cap number.

 

DeVondre Campbell.........an actual All Pro........is bound for free agency and projected to sign a $7M aav deal........there are always good MLB's on the market so trading them for valued picks is not going to be easy.    

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

14 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Seattle traded for Jamal Adams. Gave up a ransom for him and then extended him. Teams do this all the time. Usually with an understanding with the player/agent that they will extend them before the trade is made. Dallas with Amari Cooper is another example.

I want to rid the Bills of Edmunds and his contract. Klein and a top 100 rookie pick can do what Edmunds has done for the last four years. 

 

Trading Edmunds doesn't make any sense from the Bills perspective. His 12.7mm active cap hit would turn into 12.7mm dead cap hit. No savings at all. 

 

I don't like Edmunds and wish we hadn't picked up the 5th year option, but we're stuck with him for next season. 

 

For OP my pie in the sky scenario is signing Chris Godwin. 

 

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

10 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

Trading Edmunds doesn't make any sense from the Bills perspective. His 12.7mm active cap hit would turn into 12.7mm dead cap hit. No savings at all. 

 

I don't like Edmunds and wish we hadn't picked up the 5th year option, but we're stuck with him for next season. 

 

For OP my pie in the sky scenario is signing Chris Godwin. 

 

 

 

 

 

His $12.7M cap hit would transfer entirely to the acquiring team...........there is no unamortized signing bonus or roster bonus etc...........its all just guaranteed base salary.

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

On 2/19/2022 at 1:57 PM, HappyDays said:

1) Trade our 1st for Danielle Hunter.

 

2) Trade Edmunds for a 2nd and sign De'Vondre Campbell to be his replacement.

 

3) Package both 2nds to trade back up into the 1st and draft the best CB remaining.

 

4) Sign OBJ with the understanding that he will not be available until the playoffs.

 

5) Spend one of our remaining picks on a speedy slot receiver.

man, it bugs me enough when people say we should draft the best (insert position here) 

 

Now you’re saying trade up and you still won’t name a prospect?

 

you’re really throwing best player available out the window and trading up for a position

[Doc Brown]

52 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Yeah I didn't have a problem with extending White, Dawkins or even Milano...........but Knox is certainly not on their level of accomplishment at the time.........as maybe the 14th-18th best starting TE in the league he's closer to replacement level than any of those players were.

Knox may be a player that you need to take a leap of faith with now as he has the potential to be a top five tight end.  His traits and measurable are elite which is why he was a third round pick despite him being relatively new to the position and having little college production.  TE is pry the position it takes the longest to develop in.  He played better at the end of 2020 and arguably was the most improved player on the team last season.  I expect another leap next year.  Try to extend him on a three year contract for 28 million or so before he has a monster season pricing you out for him next year.

[LABILLBACKER]

Love the idea of landing DeVondre Campbell before NE or the Jets grab him. We're never getting a 2nd for Edmunds but I'd definitely settle for a 3rd & 5th in a heartbeat.  If you're going to waste 12.7 on Edmunds you sure as hell can pay Knox a decent market value deal. There's no way Josh allows him to leave. Too much chemistry and besides Dawson's rise happened in year 3, just like JA17.  Draft Dulcich in the 5th. Solid hands TE2.  I think the key this offseason will be what we do at CB & 1T?

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

1. Find out who takes the payoffs at the NFLRA.

2. "Giff those mehn their MAH-nee!"

 

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

52 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

His $12.7M cap hit would transfer entirely to the acquiring team...........there is no unamortized signing bonus or roster bonus etc...........its all just guaranteed base salary.

 

Spotrac shows 12.7mm dead cap if we cut Edmunds even though his cap is 100% base salary. I always thought being traded vs being cut would have the same dead cap hit. Is it different in this case?

[BADOLBILZ]

29 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Knox may be a player that you need to take a leap of faith with now as he has the potential to be a top five tight end.  His traits and measurable are elite which is why he was a third round pick despite him being relatively new to the position and having little college production.  TE is pry the position it takes the longest to develop in.  He played better at the end of 2020 and arguably was the most improved player on the team last season.  I expect another leap next year.  Try to extend him on a three year contract for 28 million or so before he has a monster season pricing you out for him next year.

 

I get that perspective...........I've defended him pointing out his high end speed, etc............so while I wouldn't kill Beane for a speculative extension like that......... I'm still not confident that he is going to take a leap from middle of league starter, 500 yard TE..........to a perennial 800-1200 yard "top 5" kinda' guy.

 

That's a significant leap.

 

Until you've done it........you ain't it.........and with Josh Allen at QB I suspect they wouldn't have much problem finding another 500-600 yard TE from year to year.

 

Same goes for Davis..........he had a huge game in KC but he also had that 3-14 target game and that game sealing drop in Jacksonville etc...........consistency has been lacking with both of these guys.

 

[HappyDays]

2 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Until you've done it........you ain't it.........and with Josh Allen at QB I suspect they wouldn't have much problem finding another 500-600 yard TE from year to year.

 

The yardage maybe, but good luck finding another TE with a comparable red zone skill set. 9 receiving TDs from that position (plus 2 in the playoffs) isn't easily replaced.

[BADOLBILZ]

27 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

Spotrac shows 12.7mm dead cap if we cut Edmunds even though his cap is 100% base salary. I always thought being traded vs being cut would have the same dead cap hit. Is it different in this case?

 

Yes,  the other team has to pay his base salary if they trade for him..........that part is generally the case with all trades.

 

If you cut him,  and he is subject to waivers(as Edmunds would be) then if he clears waivers you are on the hook for all of his guaranteed base salary(which is ALL of it in Edmunds case).

 

If released and then he is CLAIMED on waivers,  then the acquiring team has to pay his base salary.

 

His deal is slightly unusual because it's all guaranteed base salary...........that's the deal with 5th year options.

 

Normally if you trade a player there is some kind of dead cap hit because signing bonuses were involved in the creation of that contract they are on and that portion of the contract is spread out evenly over the length of the deal and then has to be accounted for all at once if cut or traded.

 

The 5th year option is a stand-alone 1 year deal with no real accounting shenanigans.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 hour ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

Trading Edmunds doesn't make any sense from the Bills perspective. His 12.7mm active cap hit would turn into 12.7mm dead cap hit. No savings at all. 

 

I don't like Edmunds and wish we hadn't picked up the 5th year option, but we're stuck with him for next season. 

 

For OP my pie in the sky scenario is signing Chris Godwin. 

 

 

 

That's not correct. There is no dead cap hit if you trade him. 

 

As for the other posts, I agree he his not going to get the return Adams or Cooper got. But he would easily fetch a 2nd round pick. 

 

All that said he isn't going to be traded. Beane and McD will not admit their mistake.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 hour ago, Doc Brown said:

Knox may be a player that you need to take a leap of faith with now as he has the potential to be a top five tight end.  His traits and measurable are elite which is why he was a third round pick despite him being relatively new to the position and having little college production.  TE is pry the position it takes the longest to develop in.  He played better at the end of 2020 and arguably was the most improved player on the team last season.  I expect another leap next year.  Try to extend him on a three year contract for 28 million or so before he has a monster season pricing you out for him next year.

Agree. He is best TE since Bills were in the AFL. You can't replace him with a rookie. Too many other issues to deal with.  And a veteran will not be cheap. He is a top 15 talent that will cost top 5 money to keep. That is just how it works. If he was targeted more he would have top 5 stats.  Just like they invested in Taron Johnson you have to extend Knox. Diggs, Knox, Davis, and whoever replaces Beasley this year or next will be your core pass catchers 

[BADOLBILZ]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

The yardage maybe, but good luck finding another TE with a comparable red zone skill set. 9 receiving TDs from that position (plus 2 in the playoffs) isn't easily replaced.

 

Jared Cook has been a free agent 5 times in his career and has had 6-7 seasons of more yardage than Knox career high despite changing teams over and over.......and he also a 9 TD season himself.    We aren't talking about rarified production from Knox by ANY stretch of the imagination.

 

And how much credit to assign Knox for RZ TD's is a tricky question............take the first one in the WC against NE...........Allen bought 10 seconds, which was more time than any QB has had before throwing a TD pass in many years in the NFL..........the second one was a flip after another broken play caused by Allen.    If Knox were running crisp routes and catching back shoulder TD passes from a pocket passer like Drew Brees.........then maybe the idea that he is a master of the RZ carries more weight, IMO.    

[HappyDays]

8 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

And how much credit to assign Knox for RZ TD's is a tricky question............take the first one in the WC against NE...........Allen bought 10 seconds, which was more time than any QB has had before throwing a TD pass in many years in the NFL..........the second one was a flip after another broken play caused by Allen.    If Knox were running crisp routes and catching back shoulder TD passes from a pocket passer like Drew Brees.........then maybe the idea that he is a master of the RZ carries more weight, IMO.    

 

Knox's athleticism is clearly an advantage in the RZ even without looking at his stats there. Not many TEs can run those TE sweeps that he scores on a few times a season. I don't think it's a coincidence that after his injury we struggled to put up points against the Dolphins and Jags. We lost our best RZ weapon. Also I'm pretty sure Knox ended the season with the best passer rating when targeted, and that's of all players regardless of position. I agree that he has been inconsistent especially between the 20s. But I lean towards paying him because he creates big plays and TDs. It's the same reason I was happy to pay a similarly inconsistent player in Taron Johnson. When in doubt pay the players that create game changing plays.

[BADOLBILZ]

12 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Agree. He is best TE since Bills were in the AFL. 

 

Subjective and really meaningless with regard to his future value.

16 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

 Too many other issues to deal with.  

 

Diggs, Knox, Davis, and whoever replaces Beasley this year or next will be your core pass catchers 

 

These two sentences say a lot right here...........it's not the early 1990's again..........get used to dealing with a lot of roster issues EVERY year.

 

 When the Patriots went to 3 straight SB's most recently I believe they had only 10-12 players on the roster in the 3rd one that had been with the team for the 1st one.    

 

You don't just sign guys and forget about that position for 3-5 years after you've paid your QB..........you are going to lose a lot of players in free agency when you win..........you can't sign them all.......not even if you save $1M-$4M per year in aav over market.........and even if they are a seemingly ascending middle of the league starter that seems generational to you because you are used to sucking at that position.

[BADOLBILZ]

15 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Knox's athleticism is clearly an advantage in the RZ even without looking at his stats there. Not many TEs can run those TE sweeps that he scores on a few times a season. I don't think it's a coincidence that after his injury we struggled to put up points against the Dolphins and Jags. We lost our best RZ weapon. Also I'm pretty sure Knox ended the season with the best passer rating when targeted, and that's of all players regardless of position. I agree that he has been inconsistent especially between the 20s. But I lean towards paying him because he creates big plays and TDs. It's the same reason I was happy to pay a similarly inconsistent player in Taron Johnson. When in doubt pay the players that create game changing plays.

 

 

I lean towards paying him too..........just not enough that I am worrying about budgeting for it this offseason.     I didn't care for the Taron Johnson extension but that was a different story,  he was a pending UFA in the final games of his contract.   Knox is not.  

 

I prefer the idea of going balls out to win this year.........while also drafting a mid-round TE in a deep class.........then seeing where Knox stands at midseason next year and what they think of the young guy as a successor.

 

You aren't going to be able to pay everyone.    Priority to me is Allen, OL and WR.........then TE.   It might just not be a position they can afford to have a $10M-$18M aav player at long term.    

[Doc Brown]

54 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I get that perspective...........I've defended him pointing out his high end speed, etc............so while I wouldn't kill Beane for a speculative extension like that......... I'm still not confident that he is going to take a leap from middle of league starter, 500 yard TE..........to a perennial 800-1200 yard "top 5" kinda' guy.

 

That's a significant leap.

 

Until you've done it........you ain't it.........and with Josh Allen at QB I suspect they wouldn't have much problem finding another 500-600 yard TE from year to year.

 

Same goes for Davis..........he had a huge game in KC but he also had that 3-14 target game and that game sealing drop in Jacksonville etc...........consistency has been lacking with both of these guys.

 

I get that perspective too which is why I don't envy Beane.  I don't even know if Knox would agree to a Logan Thomas type contract at this point.  Maybe a mid year extension makes more sense after we see him in Dorsey's offense.  

[BADOLBILZ]

2 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

I get that perspective too which is why I don't envy Beane.  I don't even know if Knox would agree to a Logan Thomas type contract at this point.  Maybe a mid year extension makes more sense after we see him in Dorsey's offense.  

 

The highlighted is what I had in mind.

 

I think Beane knows that the offense they ended the season playing isn't something they can do for 20-21 games per season...........Allen was taking a beating.

 

They need to be more of a precision passing offense from the pocket during the regular season..........so if they bolster the OL and Knox comes out and looks like a guy who can dominate in an offense where the QB is getting the ball out more on time.........like most offenses have to..........then we will have a better idea where he stands relative to the better TE's in football.

 

All else fails.........the franchise tag for TE's in 2021 was a relatively paltry $9.6M......it will be higher in 2023 but still probably no more than they are paying Edmunds in 2022.    

[Doc Brown]

2 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

They need to be more of a precision passing offense from the pocket during the regular season..........so if they bolster the OL and Knox comes out and looks like a guy who can dominate in an offense where the QB is getting the ball out more on time.........like most offenses have to..........then we will have a better idea where he stands relative to the better TE's in football.

 

All else fails.........the franchise tag for TE's in 2021 was a relatively paltry $9.6M......it will be higher in 2023 but still probably no more than they are paying Edmunds in 2022.    

You successfully talked me out of a position which rarely happens.  I didn't know the franchise tag was that low for TE's.  Beane hasn't used the franchise tag yet but Knox could be the exception if all else fails. 

[Mr. WEO]

On 2/19/2022 at 2:53 PM, Mark92 said:

They won't do it.  Beane has built this thing from the ground up and I think he would be happier being a playoff team every season over winning one super bowl and then being fired in 5 years.  It's a pipe dream.  They will make moves but nothing earth shattering.  They are close and they know it.  

 

 

What??  Then fire him now.  Or let him go work for the Steelers.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

8 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

Or…they could’ve just held the Chiefs receivers at the line of scrimmage in the last thirteen seconds, without a single roster move. 😉

 

That too, but we still need speed size

 

 

[Einstein's Dog]

16 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

You successfully talked me out of a position which rarely happens.  I didn't know the franchise tag was that low for TE's.  Beane hasn't used the franchise tag yet but Knox could be the exception if all else fails. 

Don't fall for it.  Big mistake to let Knox test free agency.

First, the tag will be no where near $9M, Gesicki was fighting to not be classified as a TE to avoid the >11M franchise tag, and it will continue going up rapidly.  Godert just got over $14M, J Smith and H Henry got $12M last year.  This year they'll add Gesicki/Schultz/ and Tonyan.

Second, it should be an objective to  surround Josh with weapons, and to keep some consistency - this offense is humming and getting better and Knox is part of that.  

Third, you will have to pay to get another TE.  You can't just have rookies at this position.  Some mid one like Rudolph is $6M.

 

You sign  Knox at his market rate a year early.  That's one advantage of drafting and developing a player.  You give him Tonyan money in a multi-year deal.  Initially it will seem like a lot, but people will be saying the same things they  are about Josh's contract in two years.

 

The Bills need to budget around the decent deal they'll give/get with Knox.  If necessary the FO could allot less to the WR room.  Replace Sanders with draft pick Davis, replace Beas w McKenzie and start working in a draft pick.  It seems easier to me to draft and put in a WR than a TE.

[Alphadawg7]

I’m confused.  Why are the Seahawks trading DK Metcalf?  I mean he is still on a rookie deal, is a stud for them, and they need more playmakers not less for Russ.  

So if Russ is staying in Seattle, why would Seattle trade one of their 3 best players who still has another year on his rookie deal and isn’t a cap issue right now?

 

Cant see them moving him unless they trade Russ and go all in on a rebuild.  

[BADOLBILZ]

7 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I’m confused.  Why are the Seahawks trading DK Metcalf?  I mean he is still on a rookie deal, is a stud for them, and they need more playmakers not less for Russ.  

So if Russ is staying in Seattle, why would Seattle trade one of their 3 best players who still has another year on his rookie deal and isn’t a cap issue right now?

 

Cant see them moving him unless they trade Russ and go all in on a rebuild.  

 

 

Well........they stink for one thing.

 

And their division may contain the 3 most talented teams in the entire NFC in 2022 for another.

 

WR rooms are starting to brim with talent now and there seems to be no end in sight in recent drafts.........and they already have a big $ WR1 under contract and perhaps want to set their sights on re-setting their salary cap and fielding a competitor in 2023 and want draft capital for the re-set.

 

I'd bet against them being able to do that.........but they did build the "Legion of Boom" teams on a foundation of prior mediocrity rather than a full tank job.

[Mark92]

19 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

What??  Then fire him now.  Or let him go work for the Steelers.

Stability is also job security.  Yes he wants to bring a Super Bowl to Buffalo but he also wants to remain the GM here.  One Super Bowl and then missing the playoffs for 4/5 years isn't a tradeoff Beane will do.  

[Mr. WEO]

5 minutes ago, Mark92 said:

Stability is also job security.  Yes he wants to bring a Super Bowl to Buffalo but he also wants to remain the GM here.  One Super Bowl and then missing the playoffs for 4/5 years isn't a tradeoff Beane will do.  

 

No GM thinks this way.

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Well........they stink for one thing.

 

And their division may contain the 3 most talented teams in the entire NFC in 2022 for another.

 

WR rooms are starting to brim with talent now and there seems to be no end in sight in recent drafts.........and they already have a big $ WR1 under contract and perhaps want to set their sights on re-setting their salary cap and fielding a competitor in 2023 and want draft capital for the re-set.

 

I'd bet against them being able to do that.........but they did build the "Legion of Boom" teams on a foundation of prior mediocrity rather than a full tank job.

But they don’t have to even make that decision this year.  DK makes peanuts next season, they are under no cap pressure to get rid of him and yet he’s easily one of their 3 best players.  
 

Trading DK makes no sense what so ever unless they are giving up on the season for a full rebuild and trading Russ.  
 

There is just no way they keep Russ and then trade DK.  Russ isn’t staying in Seattle to start a rebuild by trading off young cheap talent that are vital to his own performance.  
 

If Seattle sticks with Wilson, which all indications thus far is they are, it’s to be competitive and try and retool.  Seattle is not that far behind in that division. If they can improve the OL and get some defensive upgrades this off-season, then with a healthy Russ they can challenge again for the divisional title.