MiltonWaddams Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 14 minutes ago, freddyjj said: Don't know about you but weird to not see an ex-Bill on the Patriots. Been a while. It’s still Tuesday. Bilichick still has time 1 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick Duffy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 (edited) 34 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: Nope. Haven't changed my mind. My priority was the Bills getting in the dance. A Colts loss was the best way of protecting that. Made no real difference in the end. We'd have won the division even if the Pats had won that game all other things remaining unchanged. Only change would be our route would be Raiders and then Titans which I might actually prefer. But ho hum. Well that's kind of what I'm getting at. No clue how things would have turned out, if Pats had won it could have changed momentum and winning the games they lost. Not knowing what and how much would have changed....you stand by what you said and rather wanting Pat win vs Colts and Bills not having control of their own destiny winning division and getting home game thus putting Bills at 6th or 7th seed IF still making it in?? Well I was just curious because I can't wrap my head around it at all. I noticed in another thread you stated your fandom began around 2002? Not sure but if that is correct, then that may be a reason why it's not that much of an issue to you. See years upon years ago a good while before 2002 when your interest began, Bills and Division rivalry was a very serious thing that rose to the point of hatred, especially with Fins in those days, more serious that the Brady era. Lol, some would try and pick a fight with you if anyone said they rooted for a division rival. Lol, Edited January 11, 2022 by Sheneneh Jenkins Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsfaninSB Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 21 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said: Nice! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harryS Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, eball said: Well, those numbers have changed to 64% and 72%, so there are apparently a lot of dumb whales betting the Bills. I'm still curious as to why the line isn't moving in that direction. Quite simply, it's because your method is not a reliable way to predict line movement. In fact, it will usually predict opposite of what is right. Would you be willing to share what odds screen you are looking at? For example, here's what I'm seeing: You'll notice that the bigger money is all on the Bengals, Bills, and Bucs, and yet in all three cases, the line has moved towards the Raiders, Pats, and Eagles. Why would that be? Well, the following quote explains where you're going wrong: 2 hours ago, eball said: Well, those numbers have changed to 64% and 72%, so there are apparently a lot of dumb whales betting the Bills. You say that sarcastically but it's the actual truth! Would it be so surprising to believe that most of the big-money bettors are whales dropping $10,000+ on the favorites alongside regular Joe Sixpack and his $50 bets? The flaw in your analysis is that you believe most big-money bettors are sharps. They're not, and that's why the lines are moving backwards from where you would predict them to move. The sharps are on the dogs, as they tend to be. Edited January 11, 2022 by harryS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach Tuesday Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, harryS said: Quite simply, it's because your method is not a reliable way to predict line movement. In fact, it will usually predict opposite of what is right. Would you be willing to share what odds screen you are looking at? For example, here's what I'm seeing: You'll notice that the bigger money is all on the Bengals, Bills, and Bucs, and yet in all three cases, the line has moved towards the Raiders, Pats, and Eagles. Why would that be? Well, the following quote explains where you're going wrong: You say that sarcastically but it's the actual truth! Would it be so surprisingly to believe that most of the big-money bettors are dropping $10,000+ on the favorites alongside regular Joe Sixpack and his $50 bets? The flaw in your analysis is that you believe most big-money bettors are sharps. They're not, and that's why the lines are moving backwards from where you would predict them to move. So which way are the sharps going? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harryS Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 6 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said: So which way are the sharps going? The Raiders, Eagles, and Patriots. They will go 2-1, losing to the Bills. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 24 minutes ago, Sheneneh Jenkins said: Well that's kind of what I'm getting at. No clue how things would have turned out, if Pats had won it could have changed momentum and winning the games they lost. Not knowing what and how much would have changed....you stand by what you said and rather wanting Pat win vs Colts and Bills not having control of their own destiny winning division and getting home game thus putting Bills at 6th or 7th seed IF still making it in?? Well I was just curious because I can't wrap my head around it at all. I noticed in another thread you stated your fandom began around 2002? Not sure but if that is correct, then that may be a reason why it's not that much of an issue to you. See years upon years ago a good while before 2002 when your interest began, Bills and Division rivalry was a very serious thing that rose to the point of hatred, especially with Fins in those days, more serious that the Brady era. Lol, some would try and pick a fight with you if anyone said they rooted for a division rival. Lol, It is fair to say I don't care as much about division rivalries as US based fans who go to games do. I still dislike the Patriots but I have rooted for them in two Superbowls when they have played the one team in the NFL I really do despise. But I maintain the reasons I gave then - for THIS Bills squad it was just get in the dance. Whether that is as the #2 or the #7 mattered less to me. This team can beat anyone and lose to anyone. I just wanted them to get a shot. When we might have been needing a wildcard then getting wildcard rivals beat was my priority. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColoradoBills Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, ScottLaw said: Nice that they will be practicing outside tomorrow in 30 degree weather when it will be close to 0 on Saturday night…. I’m guessing the Pats are practicing outside all week. LOL, why Scott, why do you always have to do this? Just to even things out, Foxborough weather the next 2 days is in the 40s. Now if BB flew them to Qaanaaq (Thule) Greenland you might just have something here. FYI, I'm sure there are plenty of seats available on the Patriots bandwagon with many upgrades coming soon. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
freddyjj Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 15 minutes ago, ScottLaw said: Nice that they will be practicing outside tomorrow in 30 degree weather when it will be close to 0 on Saturday night…. I’m guessing the Pats are practicing outside all week. hope so, after today high 30s-40 in Beantown til SAT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Success Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 One thing I've noticed about Pats fans - their rooting interests these days lie much more in seeing the misery of other fanbases, as opposed to enjoying their own success. Maybe that happens after you win so much. But man, have I seen a lot of sentiments along the lines of just wanting to win to stick it to Bills fans, who they think have gotten "cocky." Self-awareness doesn't seem to really be a thing w/ that crew. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warcodered Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 12 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: It is fair to say I don't care as much about division rivalries as US based fans who go to games do. I still dislike the Patriots but I have rooted for them in two Superbowls when they have played the one team in the NFL I really do despise. But I maintain the reasons I gave then - for THIS Bills squad it was just get in the dance. Whether that is as the #2 or the #7 mattered less to me. This team can beat anyone and lose to anyone. I just wanted them to get a shot. When we might have been needing a wildcard then getting wildcard rivals beat was my priority. Rams, Eagles, or Giants? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 31 minutes ago, harryS said: Quite simply, it's because your method is not a reliable way to predict line movement. In fact, it will usually predict opposite of what is right. Would you be willing to share what odds screen you are looking at? For example, here's what I'm seeing: You'll notice that the bigger money is all on the Bengals, Bills, and Bucs, and yet in all three cases, the line has moved towards the Raiders, Pats, and Eagles. Why would that be? Well, the following quote explains where you're going wrong: You say that sarcastically but it's the actual truth! Would it be so surprising to believe that most of the big-money bettors are whales dropping $10,000+ on the favorites alongside regular Joe Sixpack and his $50 bets? The flaw in your analysis is that you believe most big-money bettors are sharps. They're not, and that's why the lines are moving backwards from where you would predict them to move. The sharps are on the dogs, as they tend to be. I don't think most big-money bettors are sharps because that's not how you make money over the long run, but they do bet in syndicates which would result in a larger number of bets/$$. I do hear what you're saying but the line isn't really moving "backwards"...it started at -4 in some areas. Is it possible the sharps aren't really on this game at all? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nucci Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 33 minutes ago, ScottLaw said: Nice that they will be practicing outside tomorrow in 30 degree weather when it will be close to 0 on Saturday night…. I’m guessing the Pats are practicing outside all week. do you look for stuff to complain about ? This is not a big deal. Didn't they play in worse conditions last time Pats were here? Do you think they forgot about that and got soft in a few weeks? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TBBills Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 So which WR is inactive with Sanders back? Kumerow? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harryS Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 27 minutes ago, eball said: I don't think most big-money bettors are sharps because that's not how you make money over the long run, but they do bet in syndicates which would result in a larger number of bets/$$. I do hear what you're saying but the line isn't really moving "backwards"...it started at -4 in some areas. Is it possible the sharps aren't really on this game at all? Sharp involvement with the Pats is small but present, imo. The Big 3 market leaders of Pinnacle, Bookmaker/CRIS, and Circa all started at 4.5 and are at 4 now. (This, despite the public backing the Bills, as discussed). But the team the sharps are really hammering are the Raiders so far, then the Eagles. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 37 minutes ago, Warcodered said: Rams, Eagles, or Giants? E****s. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
947 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 6 minutes ago, TBBills said: So which WR is inactive with Sanders back? Kumerow? Hopefully Stevenson 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, 947 said: Hopefully Stevenson Kumerow is a key ST player and also is a solid run blocking WR. My guess is Stevenson and maybe they make Brieda inactive again Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TBBills Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 (edited) 3 minutes ago, 947 said: Hopefully Stevenson We had him inactive last week to we need another also. Edited January 11, 2022 by TBBills Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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