ColoradoBills Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 24 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said: Breaking this down even more.... These are only stats from the KC/BUF game earlier this year. Buffalo targeted WR on 84% of their pass plays in that game for a 48% success rate and an average of only 4.9 yards. In that game, KC only 46% of their targets went to WR...35% to RB and the other 19% to RB. Buffalo not having a TE or RB threat in the passing game plays to KC's strengths on D....and the Bills inability to cover TE....plays into why Kelce is a huge difference in this game. Looking at the earlier year matchup is a fools errand. This game is going to have a completely different feel to it. All the makings of a close game and if that ends up being true a handful of plays will decide it. Those plays can come from anywhere. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zerovoltz Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Miyagi-Do Karate said: Not sure I am following you here. Are you saying the Chiefs were playing off and soft in the 4th quarter of the week 6 game? No, the original post showed a tweet indicating the Bills had alot more success in 10 personel VS the Chiefs as opposed to being in 11 Personel. They ran 16 plays in 10 personel that game...half of wich were in the 4th while trailing.....so a situation where you are passing the D is probalby playing off/deep to prevent a big play...... so the short answer mostly yes. the Bills were down 2 scores for most of the 4th quarter. 1 minute ago, ColoradoBills said: Looking at the earlier year matchup is a fools errand. This game is going to have a completely different feel to it. All the makings of a close game and if that ends up being true a handful of plays will decide it. Those plays can come from anywhere. I can't say you are wrong.....but you could say this about every game ever played 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pokebball Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 27 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said: Breaking this down even more.... These are only stats from the KC/BUF game earlier this year. Buffalo targeted WR on 84% of their pass plays in that game for a 48% success rate and an average of only 4.9 yards. In that game, KC only 46% of their targets went to WR...35% to RB and the other 19% to RB. Buffalo not having a TE or RB threat in the passing game plays to KC's strengths on D....and the Bills inability to cover TE....plays into why Kelce is a huge difference in this game. I'm not sure your willing to buy this, but the Bills are a different team than they were in week six, both from a personnel as well as at a much different level of confidence. The offense in week six was still trying to figure out who they were and what role that had with and to each other. Even your Chiefs are different today and they didn't have anywhere near the changes going on as the Bills were trying to figure out. Be careful using week 6 as a barometer here. That's all I'm saying. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Pokebball said: I'm not sure your willing to buy this, but the Bills are a different team than they were in week six, both from a personnel as well as at a much different level of confidence. The offense in week six was still trying to figure out who they were and what role that had with and to each other. Even your Chiefs are different today and they didn't have anywhere near the changes going on as the Bills were trying to figure out. Be careful using week 6 as a barometer here. That's all I'm saying. The Bills can only hope the chiefs lean on that game and roll with the same game plan they used week 6. But I think their coaches are too smart for that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zerovoltz Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, Pokebball said: I'm not sure your willing to buy this, but the Bills are a different team than they were in week six, both from a personnel as well as at a much different level of confidence. The offense in week six was still trying to figure out who they were and what role that had with and to each other. Even your Chiefs are different today and they didn't have anywhere near the changes going on as the Bills were trying to figure out. Be careful using week 6 as a barometer here. That's all I'm saying. I agree that you can't glean a whole lot from one game....but that's also why I posted the season stats first a few posts before that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 (edited) My favorite national reporter. She’s just sharp and does her homework Edited January 23, 2021 by YoloinOhio 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pokebball Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, Zerovoltz said: I agree that you can't glean a whole lot from one game....but that's also why I posted the season stats first a few posts before that one. Sure, but the season stats include our first 6-8 games and are influenced by this very same dynamic. Wouldn't you think the last half of the season might be the better sample to use "stats" from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zerovoltz Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Pokebball said: Sure, but the season stats include our first 6-8 games and are influenced by this very same dynamic. Wouldn't you think the last half of the season might be the better sample to use "stats" from? Ugh.....sure......I'll get to that later this evening.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColoradoBills Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said: I can't say you are wrong.....but you could say this about every game ever played I would disagree about that. My point is both teams are similarly built and they will go into this game planning on playing the way that got them the most wins during the season. There a lot of lopsided matchups during the season. This game is all about the 2 best in the Conference going head to head with similar traits. IMO it will be decided by the players individual accomplishments more than by schemes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichRiderBills Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said: My favorite national reporter. She’s just sharp and does her homework I love her too...she's in the mafia now. She's been a great part of this ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 8 minutes ago, Pokebball said: I'm not sure your willing to buy this, but the Bills are a different team than they were in week six, both from a personnel as well as at a much different level of confidence. The offense in week six was still trying to figure out who they were and what role that had with and to each other. Even your Chiefs are different today and they didn't have anywhere near the changes going on as the Bills were trying to figure out. Be careful using week 6 as a barometer here. That's all I'm saying. Our defense is the side of the ball where we’re completely different than we were weak 6. No milano, no Levi, injured Edmunds. Zero aggression. We didn’t blitz the chiefs once iirc. Since that game, our D has become much more aggressive and have been disguising the blitz very well. that’s really the key to the game imo. Which team does a better job of confusing the QB with disguised blitz’s. It’s Spags’ specialty. Let’s hope Josh can recognize it. It’s the main reason we lost in week 6 imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zow2 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 32 minutes ago, starrymessenger said: I think the Bills will pick their poison by doubling Kelce and Hill and take their chances with Hardman and with the Chiefs running game. They will give KC the running game, like in the earlier matchup, because thats not what the Chiefs do best. When I say double Kelce and Hill (and more Kelce than Hill IMO) I dont mean to say that they will make their intentions obvious or do it all the time. Obviously they will cheat and sometimes flat out guess depending upon the situation, but I expect them to be aggressive. They will at the same time selectively bring pressure to make it more difficult for PM to find his second or third read. if PMs mobility is compromised that will greatly help Frazier & Co. Personally i thought the KC plan to run the ball down our throats in the first matchup served one unintended purpose. It allowed the Bills to hang around in a game they had no business hanging around in. The way Mahomes was easily escaping the pressure and his 80% completion%, they could've wnet down the field several times and put more points on the board. The running controlled the clock but shortened the game and didn't maximize their points. Of course, I don't think KC will use that game plan again. They are too smart. It's the AFC Championship. I expect them to be much more aggressive and go for more chunk plays to set up more scoring. For our side it's all up to Allen. He has to be on his game and into it. This can't be one of these hero ball games where's he's chucking it off his back foot, 8 feet over a guy's head into double coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said: I would disagree about that. My point is both teams are similarly built and they will go into this game planning on playing the way that got them the most wins during the season. There a lot of lopsided matchups during the season. This game is all about the 2 best in the Conference going head to head with similar traits. IMO it will be decided by the players individual accomplishments more than by schemes. Not sure if I agree with this. The ravens blitzer more than any team in the league all year. Last week, they were afraid and did so much less than usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nextmanup Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just watched all the most recent weather forecasts at ABC, CBS, and NBC affiliates in KC. They are all saying the same thing; temp mid to upper 30s (37F or so) at kickoff; decent chance (maybe 50%) of some light drizzle or mist occurring now and again during the game, but nothing substantial. Temps should remain above freezing for the game. They are going to get a minor snow event but it won't start until midnight and over night on Sunday into Monday and that system will have no impact on the game at all. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmotionallyUnstable Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Rewatched the nightlights of the week 6 game: this might sound crazy, but i think if the bills D can play like they did vs the chiefs that week, like will likely win. Our offense was a putrid. Dropped passes, negative runs, you name it. It looked nothing like our current offense. That’s likely a homer take but so what, go bills. Just now, EmotionallyUnstable said: Rewatched the highlights of the week 6 game: this might sound crazy, but i think if the bills D can play like they did vs the chiefs that week, like will likely win. Our offense was a putrid. Dropped passes, negative runs, you name it. It looked nothing like our current offense. That’s likely a homer take but so what, go bills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatdrought Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 @Zerovoltz - curious what your thoughts are regarding Allen’s injury in the first matchup? I haven’t seen that talked about at all among the media - but his “slump” between the raiders game and the Seahawks game directly coincided with his opposite shoulder injury. Matt Hasslebeck said before the Seahawks game that he had that injury and even though it’s not the throwing arm, it affects everything about your game. Especially accuracy. He also said that that (before SEA) was about how long it took him to get right. Josh blew up in the Seahawks game and has been great since. is that on your radar at all? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColoradoBills Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, NewEra said: Not sure if I agree with this. The ravens blitzer more than any team in the league all year. Last week, they were afraid and did so much less than usual All true and I'm glad they went away from their typical game plan. Everyone has their opinion on the game and it's mine that both teams put the ball and the game in their respective QBs hands. It's going to be a shootout and like I said before the team with the better OL pass protection will have the advantage. Which QB runs/scrambles better will be 2nd most important. At least that's how I see it coming off tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiotAct Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 10 minutes ago, Nextmanup said: Just watched all the most recent weather forecasts at ABC, CBS, and NBC affiliates in KC. They are all saying the same thing; temp mid to upper 30s (37F or so) at kickoff; decent chance (maybe 50%) of some light drizzle or mist occurring now and again during the game, but nothing substantial. Temps should remain above freezing for the game. They are going to get a minor snow event but it won't start until midnight and over night on Sunday into Monday and that system will have no impact on the game at all. what is the wind situation looking like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nextmanup Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, RiotAct said: what is the wind situation looking like? None of them mentioned it at all, now that you bring it up! Don't think it's going to be particularly strong. Although it was funny, the Buffalo weather people were WAY MORE into the game (doing the weather forecast!) the last 2 weeks for the games in Buffalo. The weather segment would start and right away they were like "OK let's talk about the game!" The KC guys mentioned the game but didn't really focus on it as much as I would have thought. These were weather segments recorded early Saturday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Straight Hucklebuck Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 hour ago, Zerovoltz said: ....KC would LOVE for the Bills to go 5 wide.....because we do have 4th and 5th corners that can cover. Someting esle to watch for....Honey Badger led the leauge in passer rating when covering the slot reciever..... Oh boy Honey Badger, being HYPED like he’s Ed Reed. He’s a great player. But he’s not Rod Woodson or Ronnie Lott. KC has lost games with Mahomes on the team, they aren’t undefeated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockinon Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 This game is going to be fun to watch. The defense is clearly much better than it was during that first game. But I am really optimistic about the Bills offense too. Jon Feliciano was out that last game. John Brown was playing hurt. And I think Dawson Knox will play a key role this time around. KC has been weak all year against defending TEs. There are many things that have changed. Even Allen appears to be playing at a higher level. I suspect our TEs and RBs will be heavily involved in the passing game, especially if KC continues to run with 2 deep safties. The OL has been doing a fantastic job blocking for Josh lately. There are so many little things. It all adds up to a big surprise for KC. I suspect the offense will really get rolling. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 (edited) 17 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said: All true and I'm glad they went away from their typical game plan. Everyone has their opinion on the game and it's mine that both teams put the ball and the game in their respective QBs hands. It's going to be a shootout and like I said before the team with the better OL pass protection will have the advantage. Which QB runs/scrambles better will be 2nd most important. At least that's how I see it coming off tomorrow. I hear ya. all year I’ve been pleading for spread them out and pass, pass, pass, pass all year. I wouldn’t mind to see us with some 2 TE sets in order to force them into some 3 LB sets. I’d really like to see if we can get the run game going some. It’s a slippery slope, as a couple failed drives due to not being able to run could decide the ball game, but I always thought that we would have to have some semblance of a run game in order to win the Super Bowl. If we were playing in a dome, I’d probably think differently about that, but I just don’t see our passing offense going postal vs the chiefs like we did vs Miami, @NE, @SF etc. I have lots of respect for Spags (and Chris Jones, Frank Clark and Mathieu) especially come the playoffs. Edited January 23, 2021 by NewEra 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said: Oh boy Honey Badger, being HYPED like he’s Ed Reed. He’s a great player. But he’s not Rod Woodson or Ronnie Lott. KC has lost games with Mahomes on the team, they aren’t undefeated. Honey Badger is a baller. But I would put Minkah ahead of him re best safety in the league today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Miyagi-Do Karate said: Honey Badger is a baller. But I would put Minkah ahead of him re best safety in the league today. Did he even play vs Bills... he was invisible this year and last year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, NewEra said: I hear ya. all year I’ve been pleading for spread them out and pass, pass, pass, pass. I wouldn’t mind to see us with some 2 TE sets in order to force them into some 3 LB sets. I’d really like to see if we can get the run game going some. It’s a slippery slope, as a couple failed drives due to not being able to run could decide the ball game, but I always thought that we would have to have some semblance of a run game in order to win the Super Bowl. If we were playing in a dome, I’d probably think differently about that, but I just don’t see our passing offense going postal vs the chiefs like we did vs Miami, @NE, @SF etc. I have lots of respect for Spags (and Chris Jones, Frank Clark and Mathieu) especially come the playoffs. People thought I was kidding when I said that I was predicting Lee Smith to be the biggest difference maker this week. I think we will see more of him and a Knox out there. They are going to pound it at times— not necessarily a lot— and get sneaky with the TE’s in the pass game. sort of what they did to Miami in the week 17 game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said: People thought I was kidding when I said that I was predicting Lee Smith to be the biggest difference maker this week. I think we will see more of him and a Knox out there. They are going to pound it at times— not necessarily a lot— and get sneaky with the TE’s in the pass game. sort of what they did to Miami in the week 17 game. Knox has almost a 100% catch rate in the playoffs. I would not be at all surprised to see him as a big part of the game plan tomorrow. Browns TEs were eating vs the chiefs last week Edited January 23, 2021 by YoloinOhio 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColoradoBills Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, NewEra said: I hear ya. all year I’ve been pleading for spread them out and pass, pass, pass, pass. I wouldn’t mind to see us with some 2 TE sets in order to force them into some 3 LB sets. I’d really like to see if we can get the run game going some. It’s a slippery slope, as a couple failed drives due to not being able to run could decide the ball game, but I always thought that we would have to have some semblance of a run game in order to win the Super Bowl. If we were playing in a dome, I’d probably think differently about that, but I just don’t see our passing offense going postal vs the chiefs like we did vs Miami, @NE, @SF etc. I have lots of respect for Spags (and Chris Jones, Frank Clark and Mathieu) especially come the playoffs. Exactly. IF they can run some early it would open up the playbook so much. If they can't you gave up on those drives. It will be crazy to watch and see how they start the game in the 1st half. Bills D can't give up the big splash plays for TDs. Make KC score from the redzone. Bills D tightens up good there. On O the Bills have the advantage if they can play to score from the redzone. I've paced myself pretty good all week but it's all coming down now and I'm so ready for this game! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said: People thought I was kidding when I said that I was predicting Lee Smith to be the biggest difference maker this week. I think we will see more of him and a Knox out there. They are going to pound it at times— not necessarily a lot— and get sneaky with the TE’s in the pass game. sort of what they did to Miami in the week 17 game. We really have to be in order to win imo. I don’t think the chiefs D gets enough credit. Like many people have said this week, the matching of wits in the play calling between both teams will likely win the game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 6 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said: Did he even play vs Bills... he was invisible this year and last year yup. Minkah played and Josh made him look silly. Not sure you remember— but that corner TD pass to Gabe Davis in the Steelers game. Minkah was basically dating Josh to throw it and I think grossly underestimated Josh’s arm strength. He zipped the ball in and minkah couldn’t even get near it. that’s why I am less concerned with Honey Badger. Josh has made a lot of elite DB’s this year look really bad. If guys like Minkah, Howard, Sherman, and Jackson were getting schooled, I am Not sure there is true shutdown-type DB that can stop Allen and Diggs. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said: Knox has almost a 100% catch rate in the playoffs. I would not be at all surprised to see him as a big part of the game plan tomorrow. Browns TEs were eating vs the chiefs last week Agree 💯. Would love to see him face plant a couple defenders on the way to the end zone 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said: yup. Minkah played and Josh made him look silly. Not sure you remember— but that corner TD pass to Gabe Davis in the Steelers game. Minkah was basically dating Josh to throw it and I think grossly underestimated Josh’s arm strength. He zipped the ball in and minkah couldn’t even get near it. that’s why I am less concerned with Honey Badger. Josh has made a lot of elite DB’s this year look really bad. If guys like Minkah, Howard, Sherman, and Jackson were getting schooled, I am Not sure there is true shutdown-type DB that can stop Allen and Diggs. Thank you. And I’m not bashing minkah by any means. I’m thrilled that Miami traded him. But for whether reason I felt he was a non factor in both games the Bills played vs him since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 7 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said: Knox has almost a 100% catch rate in the playoffs. I would not be at all surprised to see him as a big part of the game plan tomorrow. Browns TEs were eating vs the chiefs last week they can do what the browns did last week. Maybe not run as well— but run well enough and then do better in the play action pass game. The more I think about this game— I think we will see a very browns’ like personnel package out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronxbomber21 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 OMG OMG OMG I still cant believe where in the championship game tomorrow and 1 game away from the F#$%$# SB 🤪 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick Duffy Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 15 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said: Honey Badger is a baller. But I would put Minkah ahead of him re best safety in the league today. Honey Badger is a good, solid player/safety, but not one that I would be scared of or worry about. In other words I highly doubt Josh is going to avoid his area of the field. Main thing with him is the Bills OL and Josh will need to keep an eye on his blitzing. He does disguise pretty well along with some of the other Chiefs D. I think he is more dangerous at the LOS and Blitzing than he is covering WR's. That's just my opinion though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dollars 2 donuts Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Do you want some talk? The Buffalo Bills are going to be the American Football Conference Champions tomorrow evening. Done talking. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zow2 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 27 minutes ago, RiotAct said: what is the wind situation looking like? The weather is all coming to a consensus. 5:40pm KC local time Sunday 34 degrees, chance of drizzle, breezy and cold, winds NE 10-20mph Winds won’t be as bad as Orchard Park last Sat night but 10-20 is enough to disrupt things. After the game ends into monday morning the weather deteriorates there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick Duffy Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 17 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said: People thought I was kidding when I said that I was predicting Lee Smith to be the biggest difference maker this week. I think we will see more of him and a Knox out there. They are going to pound it at times— not necessarily a lot— and get sneaky with the TE’s in the pass game. sort of what they did to Miami in the week 17 game. I agree. I think we will see this too, or at least attempted. I think Bills will try the Lee Smith or Knox at the LOS playing like they are blocking and slip out the last few seconds and be wide open. We haven't seen that in a bit. You said like they did in Miami game, they may have and I just don't remember. But I remember very well (not sure who Bills were playing 100%) but Lee Smith fooled the D and they thought for sure he was blocking, then he slipped away and was completely wide open with nobody around in the end zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, Bronxbomber21 said: OMG OMG OMG I still cant believe where in the championship game tomorrow and 1 game away from the F#$%$# SB 🤪 I keep saying the same thing. Still seems not real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Anyone thinking we pretty much utilize nearly the exact same game plan both on offense and defense as we did for week 6? Just add in a couple wrinkles. We held the Chiefs to 26 points for the game and to only 23 going into their final possession. Down only six with a chance to get the ball back and drive the field for the win. My thinking is we can't really do worst than we did on defense against the rush and we can't really have a worst offensive performance with only 206 total yards. Despite that it was less than a one score game with 4 and half minutes to go and we had them at their own 33 yard line staring down 3rd and 12. I guess if we were to change something up we would change up the offensive game plan to generate more yards. But I think Allen has progressed a lot since that game and would probably see the field a lot better both pre and post snap even with the same game plan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick Duffy Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 6 minutes ago, Bronxbomber21 said: OMG OMG OMG I still cant believe where in the championship game tomorrow and 1 game away from the F#$%$# SB 🤪 Lol I know right. I'm still trying to wrap my head around it.It's great! A pleasant surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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