Punching Bag Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 5 hours ago, Greg S said: Can we also say the Patriots were lucky cheating these past 20 years or is that not allowed? NFL will not allow THAT on official media including game broadcasts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sherlock Holmes Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 Get the fluck out of here!!!🤮 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just in Atlanta Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 Good teams win close football games. The Steelers for years have thrived off close wins. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just Joshin' Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 What happens when Buffalo and Pittsburgh play? Can they both be lucky? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aristocrat Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 What do they say about injuries and such? If Josh goes out Sunday and repeats last sundays numbers it’s clear the 4 games with the brace skewed their numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganesh Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, Just Joshin' said: What happens when Buffalo and Pittsburgh play? Can they both be lucky? we could have a tie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan692 Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 3 hours ago, aristocrat said: What do they say about injuries and such? If Josh goes out Sunday and repeats last sundays numbers it’s clear the 4 games with the brace skewed their numbers. Sample size. 9 games isnt enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cruiserplayer Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 3 hours ago, ganesh said: we could have a tie So then only the Steelers would be lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JESSEFEFFER Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 The flaw is the assumption that the final point differential correlates well with how competitive the game was played. I'd venture to say that the Bills spent very little time behind in their 7 wins. I suspect the amount of time a team spends leading vs trailing in their games over the course of their season has a higher correlation to win% than the aggregate point differential and any deviations from that expectation would be more indicative of "luck." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 It’s a metric based upon point differential so it makes sense. What the metric doesn’t factor is how the point differential is impacted by garbage time scores or close games that get away in the 4th quarter. It’s basically saying “if the point differential is close you’re probably winning some and losing some” so a 7-2 and 8-0 team with close differentials are “lucky.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prissythecat Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 We don’t need to go to 538:site when we already have one of their writers here. He uses advanced stats and metrics according to his posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCal Deek Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 (edited) I have to admit that I didn’t read the article but on it’s face this is one of the dumbest things I’ve read. How in the world does winning close games make you lucky? If you have a dominate defense and a mediocre offense your games are going to be low scoring and by definition then the margin of victory will of course be small...but that doesn’t make you lucky. And if you win all of your games but lose two in blowouts that similarly brings down your overall margin of victory. It has ZERO correlation to how well you played in your wins. Edited November 14, 2020 by SoCal Deek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Otreply Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 Really? Historically unlucky would be more on point... 😁 Go Bills!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
njbuff Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 Do they realize that in 5 of these games that the opposition has scored garbage time TD's to really skew the point differential? That is also rare in the NFL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billspro Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 We have actually been pretty unlucky with forcing turnovers. It wouldn’t surprise me to see them come in bunches again for the next few games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Generic_Bills_Fan Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 18 hours ago, Limeaid said: NFL will not allow THAT on official media including game broadcasts. Haha Peyton manning did it on a mnf broadcast 🤣 'certain teams in the northeast dont cut off communications to the quarterback at 15 seconds' Statistical projections like these seem to be least accurate in football compared to other sports that are more about individual stats...theres such drastically different gameplans every week that its a bit of a stretch to assume the teams play in future games based on how they've performed so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HOUSE Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 (edited) Every win the Bills ever had was lucky. It comes with being a Bills fan Coaches run the wrong defense, QBs fumble on their final drive. Key players on the opposing team are hurt....etc. Tomorrow it will be a slippery field Its all luck Edited November 14, 2020 by HOUSE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 On 11/13/2020 at 4:03 PM, Buffalo_Stampede said: Ours is actually flawed because we've dominated basically every game we won but let teams back in the game. If you delete the Titans disaster and they are what +32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Punching Bag Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 26 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said: If you delete the Titans disaster and they are what +32 Even better if Titans forfeit as they should have which would have made difference against Kansas City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 10 minutes ago, Limeaid said: Even better if Titans forfeit as they should have which would have made difference against Kansas City. yeah there is that too. It’s what makes that differential metric dumb where an anomalous blowout either Way skews the attempted generalization Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CSBill Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 It's probably been said in the here, but who has time to data mine a thread . . . "Sometimes, its better to be lucky than good;" because, "you are what your record says you are." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridgewaycynic2013 Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 On 11/13/2020 at 4:53 PM, Greg S said: Can we also say the Patriots were lucky these past 20 years or is that not allowed? On 11/13/2020 at 9:55 PM, Limeaid said: NFL will not allow THAT on official media including game broadcasts. Well, actually you can say it, but it will cost you two conditional draft picks to New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albany,n.y. Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 The Steelers & Bills are lucky: Both teams had franchise QBs fall in their laps. Pittsburgh had a bad season and got lucky the year they drafted Roethlisberger because Bills GM Tom Donahoe wanted him but could not trade up ahead of Pittsburgh. My guess is he just wasn't offering enough. When it comes to getting the QB you want, a smart GM does whatever it takes & Doesn't worry about draft value formulas. Donahoe failed, much to the delight of his former team. The Bills man all along was Josh Allen. They got lucky when the Giants went RB at #2 in the 2018 draft. That made it possible for the Jets to draft Darnold. If the Giants draft Darnold, the Jets draft one of the 2 Joshs. Maybe they pick Rosen, but we'll never know. The Jets had to go QB that draft after the trade up. So the Bills get doubly lucky & shoot for pick 7 after a deal with Denver falls through at pick 5 because they wanted Chubb. They're also lucky that John Elway apparently wants no part of Josh Allen. Because Elway chooses Chubb over the trade, the Bills get to keep their other #1, which would have been part of the Denver trade. While they get lucky Josh falls down to 7, they also are lucky because they are prepared. The other team that wanted Josh was Arizona. Fortunately due to Beane's trading of Sammy Watkins and then trading up to 12 with the Glenn trade, the Bills are much better prepared to trade up to 7 than Arizona whose pick after the Glenn trade is 3 picks lower than the Bills pick and they have only one 2nd round pick. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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