Draft Sleepers

[yungmack]

2 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

A guy can hope! 

I'd love having him, but I don't think the Bills will use the 54 pick on a WR, and he might be gone before thet. Plus he was teammates with Darnold.

[thebandit27]

I’ll add a few others:

 

Isaiah Hodgins

Jordan Elliot

Robert Hunt 

 

I know Alton Robinson isn’t a sleeper per se, but IMO he’s very under-discussed. I have him as a round 2 guy.

[Rockinon]

I'm a little more interested in who might fall into our lap.  We all ready know that there will likely be a run on WRs early this year.  Another run on some other position could drop a really good player down to us.

 

Plus I am terrible at picking sleepers.

Edited April 6, 2020 by Rockinon

[Logic]

WRs Tyler Johnson and Isaiah Hodgins may not be true "sleepers". Most people know their names and they'll likely be drafted in the middle rounds.

What makes them "sleeper picks" for me is that I think both guys will turn out to be among the best in the entire class. It's not just "hey, these guys will turn heads". It's "hey, I think these two are being highly underrated, and they're going to make serious noise in the NFL."

Hodgins, in particular, is a guy I hope winds up a Buffalo Bill.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

Buddy Nix.

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

I’ll add a few others:

 

Isaiah Hodgins

Jordan Elliot

Robert Hunt 

 

I know Alton Robinson isn’t a sleeper per se, but IMO he’s very under-discussed. I have him as a round 2 guy.

 

I have Robinson as a high 3rd but yea agree he is under discussed. 

[Kirby Jackson]

Can someone explain what I’m missing with Hodgins? I see a lot of people listing him here. It’s going to be difficult for him to separate at the next level. I just don’t see it but there are people a lot smarter than me that seem to like him. He feels like Duke Williams to me and we already have him.

[MrEpsYtown]

Mine is Carter Coughlin Minnesota. He is an undersized edge player Who I think is athletic enough to make the move to Will or Sam as an off ball guy. He was all over the field for Minnesota and the dude can ball. To me he’s the kind of guy who will make a team, be a special teams beast, and eventually develop into a starter somewhere. Ran a 4.57 40 at the combine. 
 

 

The video shows him in the backfield and dominating some pretty good offensive lines. 

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Can someone explain what I’m missing with Hodgins? I see a lot of people listing him here. It’s going to be difficult for him to separate at the next level. I just don’t see it but there are people a lot smarter than me that seem to like him. He feels like Duke Williams to me and we already have him.

 

I have to say I am with you Kirbs. He is no more than a late day 3 guy in this class to me. 

[Freddie's Dead]

Alex, who is Buddy Nix?

[DCOrange]

Weirdly enough, pretty much all of the guys I'd normally peg as a sleeper per Gunner's criteria seem to have risen up draft boards to roughly where they should be now anyways. Maybe the one guy that still counts as a sleeper in my eyes is Darius Anderson, who I like in the 4th or 5th round but seems to have nearly no draft buzz. His 40 was disappointing, but on film, he looks like he accelerates very well (and I believe his 10 yard split at the combine was very good), and he's simply very difficult to tackle. He slips out of a lot of tackles. His receiving numbers are also pretty good, though not a very large sample size.

•  

Some other guys I like that don't technically qualify per Gunner's criteria:

• Michael Pittman Jr. - USC WR - I think he's a fringe 1st - early 2nd round prospect. For awhile he was looked at as a 3rd-4th rounder but seems like he's starting to settle in the 2nd round picture.
• Bryan Edwards - SC WR - He's a 2nd round talent but injuries and bad QB play will likely push him to at least the 3rd round if not Day 3.
• Amik Robertson - Louisiana Tech CB - Almost certainly will exclusively play in the slot, and there's some questions about if he can survive with his relatively small size and non-elite athleticism, but man, he was super impressive in college. I thought he was a sleeper candidate for sure but it seems like he's recently risen up into the 2nd-3rd round picture and that's where he should be taken IMO.
• Jacob Eason - UW QB - Seems like he's started to slide to the 2nd-3rd round picture, but for me, he's ever so slightly my #4 QB ahead of Justin Herbert. I have Eason, Herbert, Fromm, and Hurts all very close to one another. With Eason, you're going to need a strong O-Line in front of him, but give him protection and he has the arm talent to pick defenses apart. I think he'd be an ideal fit in Dallas, Pittsburgh, or Tampa, though none of them technically need a QB (at least not right away though that's probably for the best in Eason's case).
• Shea Patterson - UM QB - He might actually qualify for Gunner's criteria, but I don't feel super strong about him. He seems destined to go undrafted at this point and he's admittedly a very flawed prospect in probably serious enough ways that he's at the absolute best a decent backup QB in the NFL, but I think he has enough playmaking ability out of structure to potentially help a team as a backup QB. I still wouldn't take him before the 5th round, but I think he has more potential than most people give him credit for.

Edited April 6, 2020 by DCOrange

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, DCOrange said:

Weirdly enough, pretty much all of the guys I'd normally peg as a sleeper per Gunner's criteria seem to have risen up draft boards to roughly where they should be now anyways. Maybe the one guy that still counts as a sleeper in my eyes is Darius Anderson, who I like in the 5th or 6th round but seems to have nearly no draft buzz. His 40 was disappointing, but on film, he looks like he accelerates very well (and I believe his 10 yard split at the combine was very good), and he's simply very difficult to tackle. He slips out of a lot of tackles. His receiving numbers are also pretty good, though not a very large sample size.

•  

Some other guys I like that don't technically qualify per Gunner's criteria:

• Michael Pittman Jr. - USC WR - I think he's a fringe 1st - early 2nd round prospect. For awhile he was looked at as a 3rd-4th rounder but seems like he's starting to settle in the 2nd round picture.
• Bryan Edwards - SC WR - He's a 2nd round talent but injuries and bad QB play will likely push him to at least the 3rd round if not Day 3.
• Amik Robertson - Louisiana Tech CB - Almost certainly will exclusively play in the slot, and there's some questions about if he can survive with his relatively small size and non-elite athleticism, but man, he was super impressive in college. I thought he was a sleeper candidate for sure but it seems like he's recently risen up into the 2nd-3rd round picture and that's where he should be taken IMO.
• Jacob Eason - UW QB - Seems like he's started to slide to the 2nd-3rd round picture, but for me, he's ever so slightly my #4 QB ahead of Justin Herbert. I have Eason, Herbert, Fromm, and Hurts all very close to one another. With Eason, you're going to need a strong O-Line in front of him, but give him protection and he has the arm talent to pick defenses apart. I think he'd be an ideal fit in Dallas, Pittsburgh, or Tampa, though none of them technically need a QB (at least not right away though that's probably for the best in Eason's case).
• Shea Patterson - UM QB - He might actually qualify for Gunner's criteria, but I don't feel super strong about him. He seems destined to go undrafted at this point and he's admittedly a very flawed prospect in probably serious enough ways that he's at the absolute best a decent backup QB in the NFL, but I think he has enough playmaking ability out of structure to potentially help a team as a backup QB. I still wouldn't take him before the 5th round, but I think he has more potential than most people give him credit for.

 

I am a big Edwards fan - you and I have discussed him previously. 

 

On the flip side.... even as an UDFA I wouldn't touch Shea Patterson with yours.... ?

[DCOrange]

7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

17 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Can someone explain what I’m missing with Hodgins? I see a lot of people listing him here. It’s going to be difficult for him to separate at the next level. I just don’t see it but there are people a lot smarter than me that seem to like him. He feels like Duke Williams to me and we already have him.

I have to say I am with you Kirbs. He is no more than a late day 3 guy in this class to me. 

 

I concur with you guys. Really enjoyed watching him...his hands and contested catch ability are among the best in the class IMO, but man, to say he struggles to separate is an understatement. I think I've compared him to Duke as well. I think he could be better than Duke, but I don't really see him playing a valuable role in the NFL even if he develops nicely. Like Gunner, I'd take him late on Day 3 and see what happens, but I'm not touching him before that.

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am a big Edwards fan - you and I have discussed him previously. 

 

On the flip side.... even as an UDFA I wouldn't touch Shea Patterson with yours.... ?

It's entirely possible I've propped Shea up a bit due to how bad the bottom of the QB class is this year. Once you get past Hurts (my QB7), it's tough for me to really justify taking any of these guys. Even guys like Patterson and Anthony Gordon have very low ceilings IMO.

[OldTimer1960]

5 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

I’ll add a few others:

 

Isaiah Hodgins

Jordan Elliot

Robert Hunt 

 

I know Alton Robinson isn’t a sleeper per se, but IMO he’s very under-discussed. I have him as a round 2 guy.

I liked Alton Robinson when I watched his full games as well.  He seems to be one of the more athletic DEs in the draft this year.

 

I don't know how teams view Julian Okwara (Notre Dame), but he looks to me like he has considerable pass rush potential as a DE.

[GunnerBill]

22 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

I concur with you guys. Really enjoyed watching him...his hands and contested catch ability are among the best in the class IMO, but man, to say he struggles to separate is an understatement. I think I've compared him to Duke as well. I think he could be better than Duke, but I don't really see him playing a valuable role in the NFL even if he develops nicely. Like Gunner, I'd take him late on Day 3 and see what happens, but I'm not touching him before that.

It's entirely possible I've propped Shea up a bit due to how bad the bottom of the QB class is this year. Once you get past Hurts (my QB7), it's tough for me to really justify taking any of these guys. Even guys like Patterson and Anthony Gordon have very low ceilings IMO.

 

As I said I have the top 7 and Morgan. That is it. Not got anyone else who is draftable. 

[Seoulofstone]

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2883678-2020-nfl-draft-top-sleepers-still-flying-under-the-radar-with-a-month-to-go

 

https://247sports.com/LongFormArticle/NFL-Draft-2020-sleepers-KJ-Hill-John-Reid-Jonah-Jackson-Ohio-State-145387553/

[fansince88]

Im quite sure I will be sleeping though the evening of day 1.

[njbuff]

15 hours ago, fansince88 said:

Im quite sure I will be sleeping though the evening of day 1.

 

What happens if the Bills trade into the late first round?

[Kirby Jackson]

Just now, njbuff said:

 

What happens if the Bills trade into the late first round?

I don’t see it. It’s too expensive especially for a team with minimal needs. I think that it’s more likely that they try to get up to have 3 top 3 round picks. Maybe something like 86, 128 & 167 for 89 &  105. The Bills would then pick 54, 89 and 105. They’d still have 2 6ths and a 7th. They may even use those to come back up again. As an example the 2 6ths can get you back into mid 5. If there’s a guy that you love still there (like Shaq Quarterman) you can come back up again.

[njbuff]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I don’t see it. It’s too expensive especially for a team with minimal needs. I think that it’s more likely that they try to get up to have 3 top 3 round picks. Maybe something like 86, 128 & 167 for 89 &  105. The Bills would then pick 54, 89 and 105. They’d still have 2 6ths and a 7th. They may even use those to come back up again. As an example the 2 6ths can get you back into mid 5. If there’s a guy that you love still there (like Shaq Quarterman) you can come back up again.

 

We know this regime will do what it takes to get a player they love.

 

While I am with you that I don't see them trading back into the first round.......... don't count it out either.

[Kirby Jackson]

7 minutes ago, njbuff said:

 

We know this regime will do what it takes to get a player they love.

 

While I am with you that I don't see them trading back into the first round.......... don't count it out either.

The price to go to 32 (590 points) is our 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th (587.4 points). It’s not happening. The only chance is if there is a player involved that they think they don’t need (maybe Ford or Wallace). Those are a couple of younger guys that may have some value. As a straight trade of picks it’s just not doable.

Edited April 7, 2020 by Kirby Jackson

[njbuff]

Just now, Kirby Jackson said:

The price to go to 32 (590 points) is our 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th (587.4 points). It’s not happening.

 

I ain't doubting you.

 

But we have no idea which players McBeane loves.

[Kirby Jackson]

2 minutes ago, njbuff said:

 

I ain't doubting you.

 

But we have no idea which players McBeane loves.

If you think that the Bills will trade (at minimum) their 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th I have a bridge for sale. They wouldn’t trade that for any player that will still be around at 32. They may not do it for Chase Young. If they had another 2nd then maybe I could see it. This year the Bills will be trying to load up between 50 and like 110. That’s the strength of this draft anyways. They’ll try to pick 3 times in there and then probably twice more. they aren’t going to use all of their picks but they don’t have the ammo to get into the 1st. Maybe they can go to like 40 if there’s someone that they LOVE but that would still cost them 54 and 86. 

[njbuff]

2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

If you think that the Bills will trade (at minimum) their 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th I have a bridge for sale. They wouldn’t trade that for any player that will still be around at 32. They may not do it for Chase Young. If they had another 2nd then maybe I could see it. This year the Bills will be trying to load up between 50 and like 110. That’s the strength of this draft anyways. They’ll try to pick 3 times in there and then probably twice more. they aren’t going to use all of their picks but they don’t have the ammo to get into the 1st. Maybe they can go to like 40 if there’s someone that they LOVE but that would still cost them 54 and 86. 

 

I'll take the Verrazano Bridge. ?

 

Like I have said, I am with you.

[Augie]

Draft sleepers?

 

Does Buddy Nix count? 

 

[BuffaloHokie13]

Ben Bartch, OT, St. John

Michael Ojemudia, CB, Iowa

Neville Clarke, CB, UCF

Ke'Shawn Vaughn, RB, Vanderbilt 

Dalton Keene, TE, Virginia Tech

Trevon Hill, EDGE, Miami

Bryce Perkins, QB/, Virginia 

[Mark Vader]

James Proche, WR, Southern Methodist. I think this guy has very good potential to be a great slot receiver in the NFL. He had back-to-back 1000 yard receiving seasons his junior and senior years, with over 200 receptions combined in those seasons respectively. He also is very good at fighting off defenders. More football speed than track speed, and the guy is an extremely reliable target. Older rookie(24), but that could be an advantage. I could easily see him as a future replacement for Beasley. Most project him going 6th-7th round, I could see him going 4th-5th round.

 

Khaleke Hudson, S, Michigan. Good tackling Safety/Linebacker hybrid that McDermott loves. Had a better junior year than senior year. Covers the field well, and is a good pass rusher. Projections have him from 6th round-UDFA. I could easily see McDermott getting the best from a player like him.

[Kirby Jackson]

1 hour ago, Augie said:

Draft sleepers?

 

Does Buddy Nix count? 

 

That’s Marv!! I’ve told the story on here that when he was the “GM” he was sound asleep during the big pre-draft meeting. He woke up in the middle and had to turn like 65 pages in his binder because he slept through the discussion of those 65 players (literally). He then got up and started doing toe touches and jumping jacks while everyone else was discussing the next prospect on the board. I always laugh when I hear people questioning his picks as the GM. He had about as much to do with drafting a guy as we do. He was a feel good figurehead inserted to make us feel better about the train wreck that we were in the midst of. He was not making ANY football decisions though. The draft was Modrak’s and the pro side John Guy. 

1 hour ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Ben Bartch, OT, St. John

Michael Ojemudia, CB, Iowa

Neville Clarke, CB, UCF

Ke'Shawn Vaughn, RB, Vanderbilt 

Dalton Keene, TE, Virginia Tech

Trevon Hill, EDGE, Miami

Bryce Perkins, QB/, Virginia 

Tell me a little more about Dalton Keene. He’s clearly on the Bills radar.

Edited April 7, 2020 by Kirby Jackson

[The Firebaugh Kid]

Omar Bayless WR

[BuffaloHokie13]

5 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Tell me a little more about Dalton Keene. He’s clearly on the Bills radar.

His overall body of work isn't really impressive at first glance. In his 3 years at Tech he racked up 59 catches for 748 yards and 8 TDs. He always seemed to show up when needed though. Against Miami last year he was a complete mismatch for their LBs. In 2018 he capped off our 98 yard game winning drive against UNC. Against Duke he broke a screen pass for a 67 yard td, shedding a couple tackles along the way. Against UVA in 2018, with our streak on the line and around 2 minutes left in the 4th, he caught a long pass on 3rd and 10 to extend what would be our game winning drive.

 

Add to that his versatility. He played TE, RB, and LB in HS and he'll happily contribute on STs. He's incredibly competitive (see his placements from the combine) and absolutely a process guy. Was on the acc all-academic team too, which I would imagine McBeane likes. He's a chess piece that Daboll could really use. Line up in a heavy set and then flex him out to the slot, use him as your short yardage bruiser (6'4" 250), or use him as a lead blocker. Or do the inverse, go with 4 spread out to get their small personnel out, then motion him to FB and break a nice run. He'd do it all. Could easily see him pushing DiMarco out next year, if not this year. He'd haul in that wheel route pass ?

[Kirby Jackson]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

 

His overall body of work isn't really impressive at first glance. In his 3 years at Tech he racked up 59 catches for 748 yards and 8 TDs. He always seemed to show up when needed though. Against Miami last year he was a complete mismatch for their LBs. In 2018 he capped off our 98 yard game winning drive against UNC. Against Duke he broke a screen pass for a 67 yard td, shedding a couple tackles along the way. Against UVA in 2018, with our streak on the line and around 2 minutes left in the 4th, he caught a long pass on 3rd and 10 to extend what would be our game winning drive.

 

Add to that his versatility. He played TE, RB, and LB in HS and he'll happily contribute on STs. He's incredibly competitive (see his placements from the combine) and absolutely a process guy. Was on the acc all-academic team too, which I would imagine McBeane likes. He's a chess piece that Daboll could really use. Line up in a heavy set and then flex him out to the slot, use him as your short yardage bruiser (6'4" 250), or use him as a lead blocker. Or do the inverse, go with 4 spread out to get their small personnel out, then motion him to FB and break a nice run. He'd do it all. Could easily see him pushing DiMarco out next year, if not this year. He'd haul in that wheel route pass ?

[YoloinOhio]

DaVon Hamilton, Ohio State

[CookieG]

I didn't see him mentioned, but:

 

Reggie Robinson II CB -Tulsa.

 

6'1" 205 lbs

 

Next Gen stats gave him the highest "draft grade" for any CB at the Combine, based on college experience, production and athleticism (using Combine numbers).

 

4.44 40

shuttle and 3 cone were near 4 flat and 7 flat respectively. Also had a 36" vertical and an amazing 22 bench reps.

 

Had 4 ints and 13 PBS last year and was 1st team All America Conference. 34 PBs over his career. Not bad considering he only had a half of a junior year.

 

Everything I've seen has him going mid to late rounds.

 

http://fullsports.info/next-gen-stats-reggie-robinson-ii-leads-all-cornerbacks-with-89-overall-draft-score/

 

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/reggie-robinson ii?id=3219524f-4273-6176-83a6-25be1b8cd671

 

 

[Buffalo716]

I just want everybody to know that for the 21st straight year I have circled the wagons and entered the 2020 NFL draft

 

I have contacted all 32 teams PLUS the swedish pro league and I really think this is my year

 

 

[BuffaloHokie13]

2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Feel free to watch the whole thing, but specifically look at the first two catches from the Pitt game (queued there). Opposite ends of the spectrum of roles he can play.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

If you think that the Bills will trade (at minimum) their 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th I have a bridge for sale. They wouldn’t trade that for any player that will still be around at 32. They may not do it for Chase Young. If they had another 2nd then maybe I could see it. This year the Bills will be trying to load up between 50 and like 110. That’s the strength of this draft anyways. They’ll try to pick 3 times in there and then probably twice more. they aren’t going to use all of their picks but they don’t have the ammo to get into the 1st. Maybe they can go to like 40 if there’s someone that they LOVE but that would still cost them 54 and 86. 

 

Agree. Unless you can get into the top 12 (they can't) there is no point giving up a load of capital. I think the drop off between the end of round one and the Bills round 2 pick is not that steep.

[FireChans]

3 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I don’t see it. It’s too expensive especially for a team with minimal needs. I think that it’s more likely that they try to get up to have 3 top 3 round picks. Maybe something like 86, 128 & 167 for 89 &  105. The Bills would then pick 54, 89 and 105. They’d still have 2 6ths and a 7th. They may even use those to come back up again. As an example the 2 6ths can get you back into mid 5. If there’s a guy that you love still there (like Shaq Quarterman) you can come back up again.

Seeing as we just exited the late first, I doubt there’s anyone we’re truly enamored with around there.

[Kirby Jackson]

12 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Seeing as we just exited the late first, I doubt there’s anyone we’re truly enamored with around there.

That’s a strong point too. I think that the allure of Diggs was great but never looked at it from that perspective. 

 

[GunnerBill]

15 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

That’s a strong point too. I think that the allure of Diggs was great but never looked at it from that perspective. 

 

 

So I will publish my first round grades in order at some point closer to but I also have 20 and in terms of names, remove Jefferson, Swift and Henderson and replace with Fulton, Taylor and McKinney. 

[fansince88]

4 hours ago, njbuff said:

 

What happens if the Bills trade into the late first round?

I will read about it in the morning.