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Josh Allen "Prove it" Season In Year 3

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2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

As I recall that study it was more about consistency over QB careers rather than year to year. The QBs who have good adjusted net yards per attempt over their careers tend to win. And it stays consistent from the 50s onwards. Whereas things like completion %s  and TD passes vary greatly by era. 

Here's different stats and how they correlate w/winning: https://www.footballperspective.com/correlating-passing-stats-with-wins/ (one of the best football blogs out there imo)

 

You'll notice ANY/A is the QB stat most correlated with wins. And for @thebandit27's satisfaction, TDs/attempt is much higher in correlation to wins than completion% (amazingly, the totally useful and widely used TDs/game didn't even make the list)

 

It's one of the best metrics for judging QB play there is and imo it's really the only one you need outside @BuffaloHokie13's rankings but he's too wise to jump into this thread lmao

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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, Teddy KGB said:


If Knox makes that block is he “our guy” 


What are you referring to?

Edited by Bangarang
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Allen is the leader of the offense.

The Bills offense has 1 job and that is to score points.

Bills averaged 19.6 points a game last year which is not acceptable.

 

6-7 points more a game with their D puts them up into a SB contending team.

Allen and the O need to improve at least 4 points per game this year minimum.

 

That is the only stat besides winning that matters.

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30 minutes ago, Mango said:


Dude, haven’t you ever been to a Bills game where we put up 19 points (our average) and lose and people say “yeah but did you see how many TD’s per throw we scored, it’s basically a tie”

This place was melting down like every week with how few points we scored when we won (I agree we should score more). So.... no I don’t recall those situations.
 

I do recall a lot of leads in the second half with a great defense which caused us to sit on leads and not throw. To me this leads to less TDs per game but more TDs per attempt. Based on this (anecdotal as it is) I think TD per attempt would be better correlated with winning and long term QB success than TDs per game. 

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39 minutes ago, Teddy KGB said:


If Knox makes that block is he “our guy” 

This is a great point and one that I’ve used as well. Morse whiffed too. But either way, there were reasons we lost that game and it’s not all on Allen. 

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On 3/23/2020 at 2:10 PM, RalphWilson'sNewWar said:

The offense has to get out of the teens when it comes to points per game.

 

But importantly Allen just needs to start making it happen when it needs to happen.  But that is just the standard all top QBs are held to.  So it’s a fair ask.

Yes - - score in the mid-20's regardless of our strong D. 

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12 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

Allen is the leader of the offense.

The Bills offense has 1 job and that is to score points.

Bills averaged 19.6 points a game last year which is not acceptable.

 

6-7 points more a game with their D puts them up into a SB contending team.

Allen and the O need to improve at least 4 points per game this year minimum.

 

That is the only stat besides winning that matters.

Well, McD states that 21 points should win games with our defense. 19.6 isn’t far off. The point is, I think Daboll and McD need to quit aiming for a certain amount of points and learn how to put their foot in the opponents’ throats when we are up. Too many times (including Houston) we got too cute, predictable, and conservative when we had the lead. It allowed the other team to either come back or make it way more interesting than it needed to be. 

15 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

This place was melting down like every week with how few points we scored when we won (I agree we should score more). So.... no I don’t recall those situations.
 

I do recall a lot of leads in the second half with a great defense which caused us to sit on leads and not throw. To me this leads to less TDs per game but more TDs per attempt. Based on this (anecdotal as it is) I think TD per attempt would be better correlated with winning and long term QB success than TDs per game. 

Excellent point. I completely agree. People complain about Allen never hitting the magical 300 yard mark. Well, conservative playcalling in the second half of games cost him that number on more than one occasion. 

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3 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I posted a Lamar “drop” video and there were 24 “drops” on it yet PFF or someone said they only had 24.

 

I've mostly stayed out of this conversation. But am I missing something here? There's a lot of bad statistics going on in this thread but this post confuses me.

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Sick of fans putting the whole season on Allen. A lot of you didn't like him from the get go and want him to fail 

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Cal said:

Sick of fans putting the whole season on Allen. A lot of you didn't like him from the get go and want him to fail 

This is more or less the gist of it all. Too many fans listen too much to the media who did nothing but bash him pre-draft and still push their narrative no matter how many games he wins or how much he improves. Meanwhile, doofuses like Sam Darnold get every excuse in the book and the benefit of the doubt for poor play because the same geniuses touted him as the next great qb. 
 

Allen was doomed with some of this fan base the day they took him.  They wanted Josh Rosen and he was never given a chance. The bottom line is he has won more games than he has lost as a starter so far, has numerous come from behind wins, and his teammates will run through a wall for him. If you can’t love that then I don’t know what the heck to tell ya...

Edited by whorlnut
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6 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Not at anywhere near the same rate. Allen’s rate of drops (7.2% per PFR) is 16% higher than the next closest (Dak at 6.2).

 

Unless I'm mistaken (which is always possible), this translates into 1 more drop per 100 passes.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Cal said:

Sick of fans putting the whole season on Allen. A lot of you didn't like him from the get go and want him to fail 

(Virtually) Nobody wants him to fail.  He did some very good things and improved in several areas.  That said, he also left plays out on the field and he fumbled too damn much.  (Virtually) Everyone wants him to be the guy for the next 18 years, for that to happen the improvement needs to continue.  

 

McDermott's conservative nature also come into play with too much frequency.  This is a good team and it was a good team in 2019, yet we went into virtually every fourth quarter biting our fingernails.  Coaching needs to get better too.

Edited by Cripple Creek
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18 minutes ago, Cripple Creek said:

(Virtually) Nobody wants him to fail.  He did some very good things and improved in several areas.  That said, he also left plays out on the field and he fumbled too damn much.  (Virtually) Everyone wants him to be the guy for the next 18 years, for that to happen the improvement needs to continue.  

 

McDermott's conservative nature also come into play with too much frequency.  This is a good team and it was a good team in 2019, yet we went into virtually every fourth quarter biting our fingernails.  Coaching needs to get better too.

This is basically correct. I expect Josh to improve, especially with improved weapons and continuity on the o-line (well, I'm hoping in both cases, but it's not implausible.) What is equally a question mark, and you point to it, is whether McDermott can trust Josh enough to let him rip without waiting for a have-to-have it fourth qtr comeback situation to take the training wheels off. Also, can Daboll avoid the too clever by half play calling -- in the old K-gun days, the D knew what we were running and they still couldn't stop us. We need some reliable plays that don't rely on tricking the D into expecting something else. And yes, virtually nobody, but there are some very irritating nobodies.

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1 hour ago, reddogblitz said:

 

Unless I'm mistaken (which is always possible), this translates into 1 more drop per 100 passes.

 

That's not what it means amigo...it means Josh Allen threw 461 passes and 7.2% of them were dropped, which equals (roughly) 31 dropped passes.

 

Prescott, who threw 596 passes, had receivers drop 6.2% of them, which equals roughly 36 drops.

 

To summarize, if Josh Allen had thrown 596 passes (same amount as Prescott), we would expect him to have 43 drops, significantly more than 1 drop every 100 passes. 

 

(usually a bad thing when the guy who's bad at math is liking your posts btw lmao)

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10 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

 

That's not what it means amigo...it means Josh Allen threw 461 passes and 7.2% of them were dropped, which equals (roughly) 31 dropped passes.

 

Prescott, who threw 596 passes, had receivers drop 6.2% of them, which equals roughly 36 drops.

 

To summarize, if Josh Allen had thrown 596 passes (same amount as Prescott), we would expect him to have 43 drops, significantly more than 1 drop every 100 passes. 

 

(usually a bad thing when the guy who's bad at math is liking your posts btw lmao)

Actually, he was about right. If Josh threw nearly 600 passes, and had 7 more drops, then that's just over 1 more drop for every 100 passes.

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14 hours ago, Cal said:

Sick of fans putting the whole season on Allen. A lot of you didn't like him from the get go and want him to fail 

 

Do you really think if he threw for 4,000 yards, 30 TDs, 18 INTs, 64% completions and our record was 7-9 we wouldn't like him as the QB? We would be looking at the defense, ST, coaching, scheme, and time management.

 

Now some people didn't like him to begin with, I was just more confused, but I trusted the decision at the time. Not liking him at the time is the same as wanting to see him fail. 

 

No one wants to see him fail. No one wants a swinging door at QB. I sure want him as the QB of the Bills and succeed in 2020. I can't think of one person who wants him to fail and maybe there are some obscure basement weirdo college football amateur scout who wants to feel vindicated it was the wrong Josh, but that number is less than 5 in the whole planet. 

 

We just want the best chance to succeed, I still he think he represents that in 2020 as he is growing as a QB which is evident. I hope he blows the doors off and is the best QB since Jimbo and surpasses him. As a person we couldn't have a better QB. He's exceptionally likeable and easy to root for.

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10 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

 

That's not what it means amigo...it means Josh Allen threw 461 passes and 7.2% of them were dropped, which equals (roughly) 31 dropped passes.

 

Prescott, who threw 596 passes, had receivers drop 6.2% of them, which equals roughly 36 drops.

 

To summarize, if Josh Allen had thrown 596 passes (same amount as Prescott), we would expect him to have 43 drops, significantly more than 1 drop every 100 passes. 

 

(usually a bad thing when the guy who's bad at math is liking your posts btw lmao)

 

Dude, if Josh threw 100 passes and Dak threw 100 passes, Josh would have one more drop (7) than Dak (6)over those passes. 2 more drops over 200 passes, 3 more drops over 300 more passes etc. So Josh's receivers drop about 1 more pass every 3rd games than Dak's do. 

 

But please continue to condescend the board. 

 

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3 minutes ago, BigBillsFan said:

I can't think of one person who wants him to fail and maybe there are some obscure basement weirdo college football amateur scout who wants to feel vindicated it was the wrong Josh, but that number is less than 5 in the whole planet. 

As I said earlier, I think this is true of most on this board, but if there are only five on the whole planet, several of them definitely post here. @Nextmanup, @BringBackOrton 

 

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Just let Josh keep being Josh. He'll keep growing organically and be special in this league for years to come. Am re-posting these, just because. ;) 

 

 

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59 minutes ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

Just let Josh keep being Josh. He'll keep growing organically and be special in this league for years to come. Am re-posting these, just because. ;) 

 

 

I think what you said is just right.   Give it time, it will happen.

 

It's hard to watch that video and come to any other conclusion.   This guy is spectacular.  When he gets a little more consistent, play after play, he's going to be a big winner.   He throws like a winner, he runs like a winner, he leads like a winner.  

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