Josh Allen "Prove it" Season In Year 3

[Einstein's Dog]

Of course I want Josh to improve.  Most people here do.  IMO, he is on a great arc.  Now he has increased weapons and some consistency of personnel (O line).  I expect the improvement to continue.   Great kid, easy to root for, the opportunity is right there for a great future for Josh and the Bills.

 

I really want to see him win Daboll's and Mc's confidence.  The Bills O needs to attack more.  It was close to embarrassing the last year near the end of half's, under 2 minutes, when the Bills had the ball and timeouts and would sit on it.  Yes, they had the lead but c'mon, I really want to see them have some faith in Josh.  Continue to attack.  It's a needed step to be considered a legitimate contender.

[thebandit27]

5 minutes ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

No one is ignoring it, it's a different argument. It's ignoring the truth of one statement to make a new criteria for the same argument. He's in the bottom 5 of starters of thrown TDs per game. Fact.

 

Is that because of lack of attempts or lack of completions to get more attempts to throw more touchdowns or because he rushes for those TDs? Again, all legit arguments, but they are different arguments.

 

What you are saying is true. No one disputes it. Why is our statement ignored to acknowledge a new argument? It's apples to apples vs apples to bananas.

 

Still the other things he ranks in the bottom 5 have been ignored: completion rate, fumbles, yard per game passing, etc.. It appears the reason why people are sticking on this argument and ignoring the rest is because it's the easiest to argue around. Why not acknowledge our statement of fact as true but then show why it's not a complete picture? I'm ok with that.

 

The truth remains we were in the bottom 1/3rd of teams on offense. 3 points away from Washington as the worst and 11.5 from Baltimore. Is that the OC, HC, QB? It's a combo IMO.

It’s pretty simple: in order to make an argument about how efficient a QB is, one argument takes into context opportunity to score by throwing while the other looks purely at mass.

[jrober38]

2 minutes ago, Pokebball said:

At this point you don't have to pony up 35 million.  Let's get to that point and see what we've got.

 

At the end of this season you have to decide if we're picking up his 5th year option which will come with a payday of approximately $30-32 million in 2022. 

 

I think that by default makes this year a prove it year for Allen. 

[Cripple Creek]

6 minutes ago, Pokebball said:

At this point you don't have to pony up 35 million.  Let's get to that point and see what we've got.

How long are you willing to wait?  If you don't see marked improvement year 3 vs. 2 what's your play?

 

Bring in a vet to compete?

Give him year 4?

Draft some competition?

[thebandit27]

5 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

At the end of this season you have to decide if we're picking up his 5th year option which will come with a payday of approximately $30-32 million in 2022. 

 

I think that by default makes this year a prove it year for Allen. 

Option years are not guaranteed, so you can pull it or cut him at any time prior to the 2022 league year. There’s zero risk.

[jrober38]

5 minutes ago, Cripple Creek said:

How long are you willing to wait?  If you don't see marked improvement year 3 vs. 2 what's your play?

 

Bring in a vet to compete?

Give him year 4?

Draft some competition?

 

I'd draft someone new and cut bait.

 

Don't get bogged down in a huge contract for a QB who isn't truly an elite player. 

[BarleyNY]

20 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Option years are not guaranteed, so you can pull it or cut him at any time prior to the 2022 league year. There’s zero risk.

Technicality here.  Not that it’s a big concern with Allen or would change my mind (either way), but fifth year options are guaranteed for injury only. 

[C.Biscuit97]

https://mobile.twitter.com/QBDataMine/status/1242510703199768585
 

Other qbs have guys drop passes too. 

[thebandit27]

4 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

https://mobile.twitter.com/QBDataMine/status/1242510703199768585
 

Other qbs have guys drop passes too. 

 

Not at anywhere near the same rate. Allen’s rate of drops (7.2% per PFR) is 16% higher than the next closest (Dak at 6.2).

[GoBills808]

Other QBs have drops too is the new coronavirus is like the flu lmao

[Billl]

2 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

Now, what if you look at TD passes per pass thrown?

 

Or are you aiming to be the 3rd poster to ignore this question?

He's 18th in a somewhat obscure stat.  Did anyone claim he was bottom 5 in every possible category?  If they did, they're incorrect.  If not, what's your point?

[Shaw66]

3 hours ago, reddogblitz said:

 

I understand that. And Teddy brought it up too.

 

My point is we had opportunities after the missed blocks.  And if we'd got a TD instead of a FG on that drive in regulation, we win.  Opportunities were there.  A 30 million dollar man needs to make it happen then.  Our opponents QB was in a similar spot but was able to come up with the big play when needed.  That's what  we should be looking for, not being satisfied that Josh got close and if someone else had done something we would have won.  No more excuses.  Just win somehow.    QBs job is to win.  That's why he makes the most money.

This is true, but it doesn't make the 2020 season a "prove it" year, which is what this discussion is supposed to be about.   

 

Watson made the plays to win the game, and he deserves credit for it.  Watson is, in my opinion, one of the league's next great quarterbacks, and he has a year's experience on Allen, and came out of a better program.   So the fact that Watson could do it in his year three doesn't mean that Allen has to do it in his year three.   The Bills want Allen to be a top QB in the league for the next ten to 12 or 15 years.   Whether he gets there in year three or year five really doesn't matter.   What matters is that he get there.  

 

For me it's simple.   He made good progress his first season, and he made good progress his second season.   He needs to keep making good progress.   That won't necessarily make him a star in 2020, because he still has a long way to go.   

[GoBills808]

13 minutes ago, Billl said:

He's 18th in a somewhat obscure stat.  Did anyone claim he was bottom 5 in every possible category?  If they did, they're incorrect.  If not, what's your point?

TD% is a somewhat obscure stat as compared to TDs per game lmao

[C.Biscuit97]

56 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Not at anywhere near the same rate. Allen’s rate of drops (7.2% per PFR) is 16% higher than the next closest (Dak at 6.2).

Does anyone have a video of all Allen drops?  Because it would be interesting to see which were flat out drops or slightly off target throws that were tough catches.  

[thebandit27]

44 minutes ago, Billl said:

He's 18th in a somewhat obscure stat.  Did anyone claim he was bottom 5 in every possible category?  If they did, they're incorrect.  If not, what's your point?

TDs per pass thrown is no more or less obscure than TDs per game.

 

And yes, someone did make that claim.

 

Erroneously.

 

For about the 487th time.

 

31 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

TD% is a somewhat obscure stat as compared to TDs per game lmao

 

Yeah, not sure why per-attempt is somehow obscure but per-game isn’t.
 

14 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Does anyone have a video of all Allen drops?  Because it would be interesting to see which were flat out drops or slightly off target throws that were tough catches.  

 

Not sure, but I’d like to see it too. Have to imagine that P-F-R is at least being consistent in their application of the stat.

[C.Biscuit97]

1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

TDs per pass thrown is no more or less obscure than TDs per game.

 

And yes, someone did make that claim.

 

Erroneously.

 

For about the 487th time.

 

 

Yeah, not sure why per-attempt is somehow obscure but per-game isn’t.
 

 

Not sure, but I’d like to see it too. Have to imagine that P-F-R is at least being consistent in their application of the stat.

I don’t think drops is an official stat and that’s part of the problem.  I posted a Lamar “drop” video and there were 24 “drops” on it yet PFF or someone said they only had 24.   
 

as a receiver, if a ball hits your hands, you should catch it.  But being realistic, not every drop is the same.  A guy throws a 100 mph fastball at you on a 5 yard crossing route Isn’t the easiest catch.  
 

personally, I want to see more of those touch passes from Allen next year.  

[BigBillsFan]

25 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

TD% is a somewhat obscure stat as compared to TDs per game lmao

 

That's why Rob Johnson went to Canton faster than Manning, Farve and Marino because in 1998 he beat them by a landslide in TD per pass ratio. in some cases from 50% to 200% better.

 

In fact he did it again in 1999 and still beat Farve in 2000 for TD%.

 

The only measurement which stack up time and time again are completion %, TDs, YPA, and turnovers.

[thebandit27]

8 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I don’t think drops is an official stat and that’s part of the problem.  I posted a Lamar “drop” video and there were 24 “drops” on it yet PFF or someone said they only had 24.   
 

as a receiver, if a ball hits your hands, you should catch it.  But being realistic, not every drop is the same.  A guy throws a 100 mph fastball at you on a 5 yard crossing route Isn’t the easiest catch.  
 

personally, I want to see more of those touch passes from Allen next year.  

I only know that P-F-R calls a drop a pass that could be caught with a “reasonable (i.e. non-infamous Odell Beckham Jr.-MNF catch) effort”

[C.Biscuit97]

1 minute ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

That's why Rob Johnson went to Canton faster than Manning, Farve and Marino because in 1998 he beat them by a landslide in TD per pass ratio. in some cases from 50% to 200% better.

 

In fact he did it again in 1999 and still beat Farve in 2000 for TD%.

 

The only measurement which stack up time and time again are completion %, TDs, YPA, and turnovers.

Fun fact: Rob Johnson has a better Bills qb rating than Jim Kelly.  
 

And are people using td/ attempts?  Why don’t you think Allen has more attempts?  The coaches are scared to fully let him rip it yet.  

[thebandit27]

4 minutes ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

That's why Rob Johnson went to Canton faster than Manning, Farve and Marino because in 1998 he beat them by a landslide in TD per pass ratio. in some cases from 50% to 200% better.

 

In fact he did it again in 1999 and still beat Farve in 2000 for TD%.

 

The only measurement which stack up time and time again are completion %, TDs, YPA, and turnovers.

So wait, if total TDs is the only thing that matters TD-wise, why fight back against the fact that Allen was 21st and try to campaign that any additional context is required?

 

And why pick those stats? If you’re looking for a correlation to winning, there was a study a few years ago that concluded that Adjusted-Net-Yards-Per-Attempt was the stat most closely correlated with winning.

3 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Fun fact: Rob Johnson has a better Bills qb rating than Jim Kelly.  
 

And are people using td/ attempts?  Why don’t you think Allen has more attempts?  The coaches are scared to fully let him rip it yet.  

Actually, he was 21st in attempts, and he was 21st in passing TDs, so that would seem to be a solid correlation on the surface.