GoBills808 Posted March 24, 2020 Posted March 24, 2020 On 3/24/2020 at 9:05 PM, GunnerBill said: As I recall that study it was more about consistency over QB careers rather than year to year. The QBs who have good adjusted net yards per attempt over their careers tend to win. And it stays consistent from the 50s onwards. Whereas things like completion %s and TD passes vary greatly by era. Expand Here's different stats and how they correlate w/winning: https://www.footballperspective.com/correlating-passing-stats-with-wins/ (one of the best football blogs out there imo) You'll notice ANY/A is the QB stat most correlated with wins. And for @thebandit27's satisfaction, TDs/attempt is much higher in correlation to wins than completion% (amazingly, the totally useful and widely used TDs/game didn't even make the list) It's one of the best metrics for judging QB play there is and imo it's really the only one you need outside @BuffaloHokie13's rankings but he's too wise to jump into this thread lmao 1 1
Bangarang Posted March 24, 2020 Posted March 24, 2020 (edited) On 3/24/2020 at 10:58 PM, Teddy KGB said: If Knox makes that block is he “our guy” Expand What are you referring to? Edited March 24, 2020 by Bangarang
ColoradoBills Posted March 24, 2020 Posted March 24, 2020 Allen is the leader of the offense. The Bills offense has 1 job and that is to score points. Bills averaged 19.6 points a game last year which is not acceptable. 6-7 points more a game with their D puts them up into a SB contending team. Allen and the O need to improve at least 4 points per game this year minimum. That is the only stat besides winning that matters. 2 1
YattaOkasan Posted March 24, 2020 Posted March 24, 2020 On 3/24/2020 at 10:55 PM, Mango said: Dude, haven’t you ever been to a Bills game where we put up 19 points (our average) and lose and people say “yeah but did you see how many TD’s per throw we scored, it’s basically a tie” Expand This place was melting down like every week with how few points we scored when we won (I agree we should score more). So.... no I don’t recall those situations. I do recall a lot of leads in the second half with a great defense which caused us to sit on leads and not throw. To me this leads to less TDs per game but more TDs per attempt. Based on this (anecdotal as it is) I think TD per attempt would be better correlated with winning and long term QB success than TDs per game. 1
whorlnut Posted March 24, 2020 Posted March 24, 2020 On 3/24/2020 at 10:58 PM, Teddy KGB said: If Knox makes that block is he “our guy” Expand This is a great point and one that I’ve used as well. Morse whiffed too. But either way, there were reasons we lost that game and it’s not all on Allen. 1
LB48 Posted March 24, 2020 Posted March 24, 2020 On 3/23/2020 at 6:10 PM, RalphWilson'sNewWar said: The offense has to get out of the teens when it comes to points per game. But importantly Allen just needs to start making it happen when it needs to happen. But that is just the standard all top QBs are held to. So it’s a fair ask. Expand Yes - - score in the mid-20's regardless of our strong D.
whorlnut Posted March 24, 2020 Posted March 24, 2020 On 3/24/2020 at 11:26 PM, ColoradoBills said: Allen is the leader of the offense. The Bills offense has 1 job and that is to score points. Bills averaged 19.6 points a game last year which is not acceptable. 6-7 points more a game with their D puts them up into a SB contending team. Allen and the O need to improve at least 4 points per game this year minimum. That is the only stat besides winning that matters. Expand Well, McD states that 21 points should win games with our defense. 19.6 isn’t far off. The point is, I think Daboll and McD need to quit aiming for a certain amount of points and learn how to put their foot in the opponents’ throats when we are up. Too many times (including Houston) we got too cute, predictable, and conservative when we had the lead. It allowed the other team to either come back or make it way more interesting than it needed to be. On 3/24/2020 at 11:26 PM, YattaOkasan said: This place was melting down like every week with how few points we scored when we won (I agree we should score more). So.... no I don’t recall those situations. I do recall a lot of leads in the second half with a great defense which caused us to sit on leads and not throw. To me this leads to less TDs per game but more TDs per attempt. Based on this (anecdotal as it is) I think TD per attempt would be better correlated with winning and long term QB success than TDs per game. Expand Excellent point. I completely agree. People complain about Allen never hitting the magical 300 yard mark. Well, conservative playcalling in the second half of games cost him that number on more than one occasion. 4
HappyDays Posted March 24, 2020 Posted March 24, 2020 On 3/24/2020 at 8:43 PM, C.Biscuit97 said: I posted a Lamar “drop” video and there were 24 “drops” on it yet PFF or someone said they only had 24. Expand I've mostly stayed out of this conversation. But am I missing something here? There's a lot of bad statistics going on in this thread but this post confuses me. 1
Cal Posted March 25, 2020 Posted March 25, 2020 Sick of fans putting the whole season on Allen. A lot of you didn't like him from the get go and want him to fail 2
whorlnut Posted March 25, 2020 Posted March 25, 2020 (edited) On 3/25/2020 at 12:14 AM, Cal said: Sick of fans putting the whole season on Allen. A lot of you didn't like him from the get go and want him to fail Expand This is more or less the gist of it all. Too many fans listen too much to the media who did nothing but bash him pre-draft and still push their narrative no matter how many games he wins or how much he improves. Meanwhile, doofuses like Sam Darnold get every excuse in the book and the benefit of the doubt for poor play because the same geniuses touted him as the next great qb. Allen was doomed with some of this fan base the day they took him. They wanted Josh Rosen and he was never given a chance. The bottom line is he has won more games than he has lost as a starter so far, has numerous come from behind wins, and his teammates will run through a wall for him. If you can’t love that then I don’t know what the heck to tell ya... Edited March 25, 2020 by whorlnut 1
reddogblitz Posted March 25, 2020 Posted March 25, 2020 On 3/24/2020 at 7:26 PM, thebandit27 said: Not at anywhere near the same rate. Allen’s rate of drops (7.2% per PFR) is 16% higher than the next closest (Dak at 6.2). Expand Unless I'm mistaken (which is always possible), this translates into 1 more drop per 100 passes. 1
Cripple Creek Posted March 25, 2020 Posted March 25, 2020 (edited) On 3/25/2020 at 12:14 AM, Cal said: Sick of fans putting the whole season on Allen. A lot of you didn't like him from the get go and want him to fail Expand (Virtually) Nobody wants him to fail. He did some very good things and improved in several areas. That said, he also left plays out on the field and he fumbled too damn much. (Virtually) Everyone wants him to be the guy for the next 18 years, for that to happen the improvement needs to continue. McDermott's conservative nature also come into play with too much frequency. This is a good team and it was a good team in 2019, yet we went into virtually every fourth quarter biting our fingernails. Coaching needs to get better too. Edited March 25, 2020 by Cripple Creek 2
Dr. Who Posted March 25, 2020 Posted March 25, 2020 On 3/25/2020 at 2:44 AM, Cripple Creek said: (Virtually) Nobody wants him to fail. He did some very good things and improved in several areas. That said, he also left plays out on the field and he fumbled too damn much. (Virtually) Everyone wants him to be the guy for the next 18 years, for that to happen the improvement needs to continue. McDermott's conservative nature also come into play with too much frequency. This is a good team and it was a good team in 2019, yet we went into virtually every fourth quarter biting our fingernails. Coaching needs to get better too. Expand This is basically correct. I expect Josh to improve, especially with improved weapons and continuity on the o-line (well, I'm hoping in both cases, but it's not implausible.) What is equally a question mark, and you point to it, is whether McDermott can trust Josh enough to let him rip without waiting for a have-to-have it fourth qtr comeback situation to take the training wheels off. Also, can Daboll avoid the too clever by half play calling -- in the old K-gun days, the D knew what we were running and they still couldn't stop us. We need some reliable plays that don't rely on tricking the D into expecting something else. And yes, virtually nobody, but there are some very irritating nobodies. 1 1
GoBills808 Posted March 25, 2020 Posted March 25, 2020 On 3/25/2020 at 2:14 AM, reddogblitz said: Unless I'm mistaken (which is always possible), this translates into 1 more drop per 100 passes. Expand That's not what it means amigo...it means Josh Allen threw 461 passes and 7.2% of them were dropped, which equals (roughly) 31 dropped passes. Prescott, who threw 596 passes, had receivers drop 6.2% of them, which equals roughly 36 drops. To summarize, if Josh Allen had thrown 596 passes (same amount as Prescott), we would expect him to have 43 drops, significantly more than 1 drop every 100 passes. (usually a bad thing when the guy who's bad at math is liking your posts btw lmao) 1
Watkins101 Posted March 25, 2020 Posted March 25, 2020 On 3/25/2020 at 3:54 AM, GoBills808 said: That's not what it means amigo...it means Josh Allen threw 461 passes and 7.2% of them were dropped, which equals (roughly) 31 dropped passes. Prescott, who threw 596 passes, had receivers drop 6.2% of them, which equals roughly 36 drops. To summarize, if Josh Allen had thrown 596 passes (same amount as Prescott), we would expect him to have 43 drops, significantly more than 1 drop every 100 passes. (usually a bad thing when the guy who's bad at math is liking your posts btw lmao) Expand Actually, he was about right. If Josh threw nearly 600 passes, and had 7 more drops, then that's just over 1 more drop for every 100 passes. 1 1 1
BigBillsFan Posted March 25, 2020 Posted March 25, 2020 On 3/25/2020 at 12:14 AM, Cal said: Sick of fans putting the whole season on Allen. A lot of you didn't like him from the get go and want him to fail Expand Do you really think if he threw for 4,000 yards, 30 TDs, 18 INTs, 64% completions and our record was 7-9 we wouldn't like him as the QB? We would be looking at the defense, ST, coaching, scheme, and time management. Now some people didn't like him to begin with, I was just more confused, but I trusted the decision at the time. Not liking him at the time is the same as wanting to see him fail. No one wants to see him fail. No one wants a swinging door at QB. I sure want him as the QB of the Bills and succeed in 2020. I can't think of one person who wants him to fail and maybe there are some obscure basement weirdo college football amateur scout who wants to feel vindicated it was the wrong Josh, but that number is less than 5 in the whole planet. We just want the best chance to succeed, I still he think he represents that in 2020 as he is growing as a QB which is evident. I hope he blows the doors off and is the best QB since Jimbo and surpasses him. As a person we couldn't have a better QB. He's exceptionally likeable and easy to root for. 1 1
Mango Posted March 25, 2020 Posted March 25, 2020 On 3/25/2020 at 3:54 AM, GoBills808 said: That's not what it means amigo...it means Josh Allen threw 461 passes and 7.2% of them were dropped, which equals (roughly) 31 dropped passes. Prescott, who threw 596 passes, had receivers drop 6.2% of them, which equals roughly 36 drops. To summarize, if Josh Allen had thrown 596 passes (same amount as Prescott), we would expect him to have 43 drops, significantly more than 1 drop every 100 passes. (usually a bad thing when the guy who's bad at math is liking your posts btw lmao) Expand Dude, if Josh threw 100 passes and Dak threw 100 passes, Josh would have one more drop (7) than Dak (6)over those passes. 2 more drops over 200 passes, 3 more drops over 300 more passes etc. So Josh's receivers drop about 1 more pass every 3rd games than Dak's do. But please continue to condescend the board. 2 1
Dr. Who Posted March 25, 2020 Posted March 25, 2020 On 3/25/2020 at 2:37 PM, BigBillsFan said: I can't think of one person who wants him to fail and maybe there are some obscure basement weirdo college football amateur scout who wants to feel vindicated it was the wrong Josh, but that number is less than 5 in the whole planet. Expand As I said earlier, I think this is true of most on this board, but if there are only five on the whole planet, several of them definitely post here. @Nextmanup, @BringBackOrton
NoHuddleKelly12 Posted March 25, 2020 Posted March 25, 2020 Just let Josh keep being Josh. He'll keep growing organically and be special in this league for years to come. Am re-posting these, just because.
Shaw66 Posted March 25, 2020 Posted March 25, 2020 On 3/25/2020 at 5:05 PM, NoHuddleKelly12 said: Just let Josh keep being Josh. He'll keep growing organically and be special in this league for years to come. Am re-posting these, just because. Expand I think what you said is just right. Give it time, it will happen. It's hard to watch that video and come to any other conclusion. This guy is spectacular. When he gets a little more consistent, play after play, he's going to be a big winner. He throws like a winner, he runs like a winner, he leads like a winner. 2
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