Interesting analysis of typical improvement from yr 2 to ur 3 for QB

[CorkScrewHill]

It really shows the real improvement ( with Stafford as an outlier) is between years 1 and 2.  Josh will need to beat the average improvement  to be anything other than a very average QB per the analysis

 

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2020/2/28/21155523/how-big-of-a-leap-should-buffalo-bills-expect-josh-allen-to-make-in-2020

[folz]

Just a thought...

 

I wonder how many guys on that list were considered somewhat of a "project" like Josh was coming out. I'm just thinking that if a lot of those other QBs were more "pro ready" coming out of college (played for bigger schools/better competition, had better stats, more polished), it might make sense that their biggest leap would be from year one to year two. They already know how to play QB, and they've been drilled over and over on their mechanics. The good ones just need a year or so to acclimate to the pro game (its schemes and speed, reading defense, etc.). So, maybe Josh will be an outlier and take another sizable jump between year two and year three simply because he had more to learn overall. He had farther to go. So where other guys' learning curve starts to level off, Josh's may still be on an incline.

[Buffalo Junction]

Nice knowing that Tim Tebow is skewing the average accuracy. 

Edited February 29, 2020 by Buffalo Junction

[1ManRaid]

52 minutes ago, folz said:

Just a thought...

 

I wonder how many guys on that list were considered somewhat of a "project" like Josh was coming out. I'm just thinking that if a lot of those other QBs were more "pro ready" coming out of college (played for bigger schools/better competition, had better stats, more polished), it might make sense that their biggest leap would be from year one to year two. They already know how to play QB, and they've been drilled over and over on their mechanics. The good ones just need a year or so to acclimate to the pro game (its schemes and speed, reading defense, etc.). So, maybe Josh will be an outlier and take another sizable jump between year two and year three simply because he had more to learn overall. He had farther to go. So where other guys' learning curve starts to level off, Josh's may still be on an incline.

3 year starters from pro style systems picking up the NFL faster than a 25 game junior project from Wyoming coming into a dumpster fire offense?  Wild!

[ProcessTruster]

Give him Megatron and yeah, Josh's stats will improve dramatically.  Nuff said. 

[Don Otreply]

Look,  we all know that Allen needs to “clean up his game” that’s a given, and I think he will do that, (not expecting perfect). He has this up coming, and next season to cement his status on this team imo. 
 

  It is my contention that if just the catchable dropped passes are  cleaned up by our pass catchers, (not expecting perfect) then the completion percentage, yards per attempt, and TD averages all go up to a point of respectability, and we win more games. This one thing, simple  in concept, but harder in reality to fix, but it needs to be done, so WE fans can celebrate more often!! ???

Go Bills!!!

[Hapless Bills Fan]

10 hours ago, CorkScrewHill said:

It really shows the real improvement ( with Stafford as an outlier) is between years 1 and 2.  Josh will need to beat the average improvement  to be anything other than a very average QB per the analysis

 

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2020/2/28/21155523/how-big-of-a-leap-should-buffalo-bills-expect-josh-allen-to-make-in-2020

 

I see it has a recent date, but I'm pretty sure essentially this data was discussed about a month ago, perhaps based upon an earlier version of the article?

Or perhaps I'm confusing it with his loop back to assess his year 1 to year 2 model, which you can find here

 

My biggest thing is I wish the author would give us his basis set of 27 players.  I would also like to understand how he handled a QB such as Pat Mahomes, who sat his entire rookie season and was MVP the first season he started (his 2nd year).   From "zero" to "hero" would be a pretty huge jump  I went back to his original article and he doesn't give much in the way of details.

Statistics almost always mean something, but if the right comparison group isn't chosen, predictive models built off them may or may not mean what one thinks.

 

For perspective on why that's important, there were actually 117 QB drafted between 2008 and 2017.   If one looks only at QB who threw at least 150 passes (50 passes x 3 years), that's still 61 QB.  Now he qualifies 50 passes/year "in the first 3 years of their career" and whittles down to 27, but since even a kind of meh starting QB can easily throw 50 passes in 1 or 2 games, it seems to me that he may be including a bunch of mediocre, and unsuccessful QB.  

 

When I look at QB who started at least 30 games, that alone whittles it to 30 guys out of 117 - but maybe a different group than his 27 guys

 

I'd just like to better understand what he's doing.

 

My take on it overall is the same as my "take" on all the Allen pre-draft stuff, where analytics perfectly predicted Allen was a "joke of a first round draft pick" (I think that was Sam Monson of PFF who said that).  When you have a basis set built from guys with particular characteristics (say, all top recruits coming out of HS, all started for big-time programs) and you have a guy to whom the unstated basis set doesn't apply, most bets are probably off. 

 

I think that's where we are with Allen.  The Bills took a gamble on a low-floor, high-ceiling "sport", a guy from a non-standard path.  If he ultimately succeeds, it will be on his own pace and time.

 

 

 

 

 

[CorkScrewHill]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I see it has a recent date, but I'm pretty sure essentially this data was discussed about a month ago, perhaps based upon an earlier version of the article?

Or perhaps I'm confusing it with his loop back to assess his year 1 to year 2 model, which you can find here

 

My biggest thing is I wish the author would give us his basis set of 27 players.  I would also like to understand how he handled a QB such as Pat Mahomes, who sat his entire rookie season and was MVP the first season he started (his 2nd year).  I went back to his original article and he doesn't give much in the way of details.

 

For perspective on why that's important, there were actually 117 QB drafted between 2008 and 2017.   If one looks only at QB who threw at least 150 passes (50 passes x 3 years), that's still 61 QB.  Now he qualifies 50 passes/year "in the first 3 years of their career" and whittles down to 27, but since even a kind of meh starting QB can easily throw 50 passes in 1 or 2 games, it seems to me that he may be including a bunch of mediocre, and unsuccessful QB.  

 

I'd just like to better understand what he's doing.

 

Statistics almost always mean something, but if the right comparison group isn't chosen, predictive models may or may not mean what one likes.

 

 

 

Yes .. I posted the year 1 vs year 2 article which in general josh met or exceeded the expectations. I think the point made above by @folz does give one hope that Josh can be a positive outlier. The dude just wants to be great! I think in the end it is just another data point that can help guide expectations.

[Mister Defense]

13 hours ago, CorkScrewHill said:

It really shows the real improvement ( with Stafford as an outlier) is between years 1 and 2.  Josh will need to beat the average improvement  to be anything other than a very average QB per the analysis

 

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2020/2/28/21155523/how-big-of-a-leap-should-buffalo-bills-expect-josh-allen-to-make-in-2020

 

 

Nonsense, as Allen showed many signs this past year he is already not  a "very average quarterback".

 

 

Edited February 29, 2020 by Mister Defense

[formerlyofCtown]

14 hours ago, folz said:

Just a thought...

 

I wonder how many guys on that list were considered somewhat of a "project" like Josh was coming out. I'm just thinking that if a lot of those other QBs were more "pro ready" coming out of college (played for bigger schools/better competition, had better stats, more polished), it might make sense that their biggest leap would be from year one to year two. They already know how to play QB, and they've been drilled over and over on their mechanics. The good ones just need a year or so to acclimate to the pro game (its schemes and speed, reading defense, etc.). So, maybe Josh will be an outlier and take another sizable jump between year two and year three simply because he had more to learn overall. He had farther to go. So where other guys' learning curve starts to level off, Josh's may still be on an incline.

Not many of those QBs had Josh’s ceiling, I can garauntee that.

[C.Biscuit97]

14 hours ago, folz said:

Just a thought...

 

I wonder how many guys on that list were considered somewhat of a "project" like Josh was coming out. I'm just thinking that if a lot of those other QBs were more "pro ready" coming out of college (played for bigger schools/better competition, had better stats, more polished), it might make sense that their biggest leap would be from year one to year two. They already know how to play QB, and they've been drilled over and over on their mechanics. The good ones just need a year or so to acclimate to the pro game (its schemes and speed, reading defense, etc.). So, maybe Josh will be an outlier and take another sizable jump between year two and year three simply because he had more to learn overall. He had farther to go. So where other guys' learning curve starts to level off, Josh's may still be on an incline.

I agree with a lot of those post.  At the same point, how many teams are drafting a project qb in the top 10 and how often does it work out?  That’s always been my concern with the Allen pick.  If he becomes a high end starting qb, he is the definition of a complete outliner and the Bills are smarter than what the vast majority of history has demonstrated.  I have never questioned his work ethic or character.  But how many times have a small conference qb who wasn’t even first or 2nd team in their conference become a good NFL starting qb?  If McBean really nails this Allen pick, they should get a statue. 
 

allen is in the territory of a lot of 3rd year qbs, especially ones who play with a good to great defense.  So now we see if he’s more Russell Wilson, Brady, or Big Ben or is he’s Mitchell, Bortles, or Sanchez.  I think with our schedule this year, we should have a good indication one way or the other. 

[whorlnut]

I really don’t think Allen is nearly as bad as some people think...

[C.Biscuit97]

9 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Not many of those QBs had Josh’s ceiling, I can garauntee that.

The term ceiling is so overrated.  What does it even mean?  It’s why scrubs like Christian Hackenberg and Jake Locker get drafted high.  “Ceilings” make teams do a lot of dumb things. 

1 minute ago, whorlnut said:

I really don’t think Allen is nearly as bad as some people think...

I don’t think most people think he’s bad. I think he’s definitely proven he’s a nfl qb.  I think the main question is whether he will ever been consistent enough to be a top end starter. 

[whorlnut]

1 minute ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

The term ceiling is so overrated.  What does it even mean?  It’s why scrubs like Christian Hackenberg and Jake Locker get drafted high.  “Ceilings” make teams do a lot of dumb things. 

It’s also what got Mahomes drafted so high. Lots of pundits were mocking the Chiefs over that pick. Of course in hindsight they got it right, but...

2 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

The term ceiling is so overrated.  What does it even mean?  It’s why scrubs like Christian Hackenberg and Jake Locker get drafted high.  “Ceilings” make teams do a lot of dumb things. 

I don’t think most people think he’s bad. I think he’s definitely proven he’s a nfl qb.  I think the main question is whether he will ever been consistent enough to be a top end starter. 

Haha. Lots of people think he’s bad. His every move is scrutinized and many in the media look for anything to support their pre-draft analysis. 

[C.Biscuit97]

3 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

It’s also what got Mahomes drafted so high. Lots of pundits were mocking the Chiefs over that pick. Of course in hindsight they got it right, but...

Haha. Lots of people think he’s bad. His every move is scrutinized and many in the media look for anything to support their pre-draft analysis. 

Wait a top 10 pick qb is getting scrutinized?  Welcome to the nfl.  It’s only going to get worse because with the league rules, young qbs are expected to succeed right away.  Teams need to see it right away or they move on. 
 

Mahomes also had 99 tds and over 10,000 total yards in his last 2 seasons of college.  As time passes, Mahomes lasting as long as he did looks ever dumber. 

[whorlnut]

1 minute ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Wait a top 10 pick qb is getting scrutinized?  Welcome to the nfl.  It’s only going to get worse because with the league rules, young qbs are expected to succeed right away.  Teams need to see it right away or they move on. 
 

Mahomes also had 99 tds and over 10,000 total yards in his last 2 seasons of college.  As time passes, Mahomes lasting as long as he did looks ever dumber. 

He played in a system that is conducive for big numbers for a qb. By this logic, guys like Graham Harrell should have been stars...

[C.Biscuit97]

3 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

He played in a system that is conducive for big numbers for a qb. By this logic, guys like Graham Harrell should have been stars...

They didn’t put up his number with superior physical tools.  The second Andy Reid moved up for him, everyone should have known it was a great pick.  

[formerlyofCtown]

7 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

It’s also what got Mahomes drafted so high. Lots of pundits were mocking the Chiefs over that pick. Of course in hindsight they got it right, but...

Haha. Lots of people think he’s bad. His every move is scrutinized and many in the media look for anything to support their pre-draft analysis. 

Most high ceiling guys don’t make it.  I think that has more to do with poor coaching and player development than it does the player.

[JaCrispy]

This is probably one of the most depressing things I’ve read the last 10 years...thanks...?

[hondo in seattle]

Josh's background at Wyoming wasn't typical so why expect him to have typical progression?

 

Anyway, each QB is unique and progress in their own individual way.  Jim Plunkett, for example, was a mediocre NFL starter until he went to Oakland and led them to the Super Bowl where he was named the MVP.   

 

I'm not sure how good Josh will become I'm more hopeful than afraid about next season.  

 

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Unless Allen regresses, QB will not be the position that determines the outcome of 2020 season.  If Allen plays at the same level as last year, the season will be won or lost in the next 60 days.  Beane needs to find at least two capable pass rushers, a deep threat , a rotational DT, make a decision on Ford at RT, and a back-up RB.  He has the money and the draft assets to fill all these spots.  

[LSHMEAB]

12 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

I think that's where we are with Allen.  The Bills took a gamble on a low-floor, high-ceiling "sport", a guy from a non-standard path.  If he ultimately succeeds, it will be on his own pace and time.

 

 

 

 

 

Good post overall; what's changed since he entered the league is that as of RIGHT NOW, his floor is much higher and his ceiling APPEARS to have fallen a bit.

 

We all know what he needs to do to reach the next level, but the positive take is that his floor has significantly risen. He's clearly not a "bust." He does too many things well to "suck."

 

What I would like to see in year 3 is.....what everyone knows we want to see.

[Shaw66]

7 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I agree with a lot of those post.  At the same point, how many teams are drafting a project qb in the top 10 and how often does it work out?  That’s always been my concern with the Allen pick.  If he becomes a high end starting qb, he is the definition of a complete outliner and the Bills are smarter than what the vast majority of history has demonstrated.  I have never questioned his work ethic or character.  But how many times have a small conference qb who wasn’t even first or 2nd team in their conference become a good NFL starting qb?  If McBean really nails this Allen pick, they should get a statue. 
 

allen is in the territory of a lot of 3rd year qbs, especially ones who play with a good to great defense.  So now we see if he’s more Russell Wilson, Brady, or Big Ben or is he’s Mitchell, Bortles, or Sanchez.  I think with our schedule this year, we should have a good indication one way or the other. 

Biscuit

 

I think you're generally right about this.  All of it.  2020 is a big year for Josh.  And if he makes it, you're right about the statue thing, too.  

 

However, I think it should be less of a surprise than you suggest.  Allen wasn't just some phenomenal star at a small school.  He was an extraordinarily gifted athlete, and there haven't been many of those to come along. Someone was going to bet on him because he had true upside.  There was nothing in his physical game that would stop him from being great.  Heart and brains is whatMcBeane bet on.  

14 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

Good post overall; what's changed since he entered the league is that as of RIGHT NOW, his floor is much higher and his ceiling APPEARS to have fallen a bit.

 

We all know what he needs to do to reach the next level, but the positive take is that his floor has significantly risen. He's clearly not a "bust." He does too many things well to "suck."

 

What I would like to see in year 3 is.....what everyone knows we want to see.

I don't think his ceiling has fallen.  Why do you think that?  He hasn't given any signs of having maxed out in his development. I think Hapless is correct that Josh seems to be doing it at his own pace. 

[Shaw66]

I think everyone's story is unique.  I don't think that projections based on several other unique stories is a very reliable way to evaluate a qb's promise.  

 

Yes, McBeane bet on Allen's heart and brains.  As of now, it still looks like a smart bet. 

[LSHMEAB]

4 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Biscuit

 

I think you're generally right about this.  All of it.  2020 is a big year for Josh.  And if he makes it, you're right about the statue thing, too.  

 

However, I think it should be less of a surprise than you suggest.  Allen wasn't just some phenomenal star at a small school.  He was an extraordinarily gifted athlete, and there haven't been many of those to come along. Someone was going to bet on him because he had true upside.  There was nothing in his physical game that would stop him from being great.  Heart and brains is whatMcBeane bet on.  

I don't think his ceiling has fallen.  Why do you think that?  He hasn't given any signs of having maxed out in his development. I think Hapless is correct that Josh seems to be doing it at his own pace. 

Not here to drag Josh, but the reason I say his ceiling APPEARS to have fallen is that we really haven't seen those super prolific performances you see from the top guys. We haven't seen that performance in which he's slinging the rock all over the place. Doesn't mean he can't or won't get there, but there's your answer.

 

Like I said, his FLOOR is significantly higher, so that's the good news.

[BobbyC81]

15 hours ago, whorlnut said:

I really don’t think Allen is nearly as bad as some people think...

And Josh Rosen was called the “Chosen One” and hasn’t seemed to progress much at all.

[thebandit27]

Guess the Browns and Jets should cut their QBs ASAP then. 
 

I mean, what’s the implication here, that a QB simply is who he is after year 2? Should we ignore all of the times when that’s not true like Brees, Brady, Rodgers, Garoppolo, Alex Smith, or a half dozen others we could all name pretty readily?

 

What’s so wrong with taking player evaluations on a case-by-case basis?

[eball]

This analysis is "interesting" only if you completely ignore everything that happened in a guy's playing career leading up to his first NFL season.

 

Are all QBs at the same level of development entering the NFL?  Do all QBs receive the same coaching/talent/organization to work with?  Do all QBs possess the same motivational drive to get better/be great?

 

What a waste of a thread.

[Shaw66]

10 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Guess the Browns and Jets should cut their QBs ASAP then. 
 

I mean, what’s the implication here, that a QB simply is who he is after year 2? Should we ignore all of the times when that’s not true like Brees, Brady, Rodgers, Garoppolo, Alex Smith, or a half dozen others we could all name pretty readily?

 

What’s so wrong with taking player evaluations on a case-by-case basis?

I'm with you.  I think it's hard to be sure about QBs until they're further into their careers, except, of course, for those who aren't getting it done at all.  Allen doesn't look to me to be a guy who is very close to peaking.   

 

BUT - this argument about QBs happens over and over again, and it is true that there are very few examples of guys making it late in their careers without having had some early success.  Brees, Brady and Rodgers all had more bench time than Allen, and they all had at least pone early season where they showed more than Allen has shown.   So when LSHMeab says to me that he thinks Allen's ceiling is lower than it was, it makes some sense.   Every year a guy hasn't lit it up makes it less likely that he will light it up down the road.    

 

On the other hand, you have a guy like Tannehill, who's a similar case.   Big talent but not much performance in college (albeit for a different reason).   First two seasons in the NFL similar to Allen's.  Then four seasons of unspectacular but solid performance.   Season seven, he rises to near the top of the league.   It's easy to see Allen on that kind of trajectory, except I think he has better coaching and a better team around him, so it won't take seven seasons.  

[thebandit27]

5 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I'm with you.  I think it's hard to be sure about QBs until they're further into their careers, except, of course, for those who aren't getting it done at all.  Allen doesn't look to me to be a guy who is very close to peaking.   

 

BUT - this argument about QBs happens over and over again, and it is true that there are very few examples of guys making it late in their careers without having had some early success.  Brees, Brady and Rodgers all had more bench time than Allen, and they all had at least pone early season where they showed more than Allen has shown.   So when LSHMeab says to me that he thinks Allen's ceiling is lower than it was, it makes some sense.   Every year a guy hasn't lit it up makes it less likely that he will light it up down the road.    

 

On the other hand, you have a guy like Tannehill, who's a similar case.   Big talent but not much performance in college (albeit for a different reason).   First two seasons in the NFL similar to Allen's.  Then four seasons of unspectacular but solid performance.   Season seven, he rises to near the top of the league.   It's easy to see Allen on that kind of trajectory, except I think he has better coaching and a better team around him, so it won't take seven seasons.  

What really irks me is how people want to complicate what’s a really simple situation.

 

Ask yourself 3 questions:

1) Does Allen have an NFL skill set?

2) Has he shown clear and obvious improvements in most/all the areas of deficiency identified when he entered the league?

3) Is there any reason to believe that he will or won’t continue to improve from where he is now?

[Magox]

From my observations I think it’s fair to say that QB’s typically make their biggest growth development from year one to two.  They finally get one year under their belt, they come into the second season as the unquestioned starter and that invaluable experience.

 

Josh I believe will experience similar levels of growth from year to two for a variety of reasons.  One, being that he truly was a raw product coming in and much of his growth that he has experienced has been his improved mechanics and basic decision making.   The main reason why he was still playing at a competitive level during his rookie year was due to his will to win games and sheer raw talent.  
 

This past year he reigned some of that in but he played smarter football.  There is a very specific focus this offseason and that is to improve his deep pass.   Josh by all accounts is someone who is extremely self-motivated to improve and I suspect that he will.   When you have someone as competitive, intelligent, willing to learn and o what it takes couples with his elite level raw talent then that usually portends to continued improvement.

 

i would be shocked if he didn’t.

[Shaw66]

23 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

What really irks me is how people want to complicate what’s a really simple situation.

 

Ask yourself 3 questions:

1) Does Allen have an NFL skill set?

2) Has he shown clear and obvious improvements in most/all the areas of deficiency identified when he entered the league?

3) Is there any reason to believe that he will or won’t continue to improve from where he is now?

That's pretty much how I feel.  It's true that every season that goes by without him being a top QB makes it less likely, statistically, that he WILL be a top QB, but I think that thinking applies much more after he's been playing in the league for 4-5 seasons.  Right now, he's trending upward, he's not at a point where his body should be slowing down (in fact, he's probably just coming into his athletic peak), his football knowledge, like ending young QB's, still is growing, and the quality of the team around him is improving.   All of those things suggest that Allen's best days are ahead of him. 

 

I expect him to make another jump in 2020.   His completion percentage should climb into the low 60s, and his passer rating will rise to around the league average - low 90s.   Two years after that he'll be a solid top 10 QB.   Why am I so conficent?   His arm and body, his competitiveness and work ethic, and the team that's being built around him.   He'll get better and better protection, he'll have a better running back room, he'll have better receivers.   It's complementary football - he'll get better, everything around him will get better, and there will improve his performance significantly.    

[Billl]

52 minutes ago, eball said:

This analysis is "interesting" only if you completely ignore everything that happened in a guy's playing career leading up to his first NFL season.

 

Are all QBs at the same level of development entering the NFL?  Do all QBs receive the same coaching/talent/organization to work with?  Do all QBs possess the same motivational drive to get better/be great?

 

What a waste of a thread.

At what point does it stop mattering what a guy did or did not do in college?  I would submit that coming into his third season in the league, it’s time to judge him on his results.  There are no bonus points awarded to players who were considered “projects” coming out of college.  Tie breakers aren’t awarded to teams with the most “raw” prospect under center.  The past 2 MVPs were both won by second year QBs who were considered projects as well.  Today, they are the guys who defensive coordinators know that even if their teams do everything right, Lamar or Pat could still put up 400 yards and 4 TDs.  So when is it okay to judge Allen not on how bad he “wants to be great” or on his “ceiling” or whatever else people want to fall back on?  At some point you are who the back of your football card says you are.

[thebandit27]

12 minutes ago, Billl said:

At what point does it stop mattering what a guy did or did not do in college?  I would submit that coming into his third season in the league, it’s time to judge him on his results.  There are no bonus points awarded to players who were considered “projects” coming out of college.  Tie breakers aren’t awarded to teams with the most “raw” prospect under center.  The past 2 MVPs were both won by second year QBs who were considered projects as well.  Today, they are the guys who defensive coordinators know that even if their teams do everything right, Lamar or Pat could still put up 400 yards and 4 TDs.  So when is it okay to judge Allen not on how bad he “wants to be great” or on his “ceiling” or whatever else people want to fall back on?  At some point you are who the back of your football card says you are.

I still ? at people that think Mahomes and Jackson—both of whom played 3 seasons for current/former NFL HCs in college—can be compared to Allen in the “project” department.

 

Also, if Allen is “who the back of his football card says he is”, then I’ll go with “10-5 as a starter and 6th among QBs in TDs”

Edited March 1, 2020 by thebandit27

[CincyBillsFan]

On 2/29/2020 at 9:58 AM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

My take on it overall is the same as my "take" on all the Allen pre-draft stuff, where analytics perfectly predicted Allen was a "joke of a first round draft pick" (I think that was Sam Monson of PFF who said that).  When you have a basis set built from guys with particular characteristics (say, all top recruits coming out of HS, all started for big-time programs) and you have a guy to whom the unstated basis set doesn't apply, most bets are probably off. 

 

 

 

This is the core reason we continue to have negative articles about Allen.  This is also why so called "experts" continue to over analyze Allen looking for every little flaw as vindication for what they said when he got drafted. 

 

In many ways their professional reputations depend on Allen sucking.  To overcome this Allen will have to produce on the order of what Mahomes produced which is not going to happen with the Bill's current offensive talent.

 

Allen IMO is already a solid NFL QB.  He has much to work on but there is no reason based on his last 2 seasons to think he doesn't have the capacity and will to keep improving.  We know for a fact that his floor has risen substantially since he was drafted and his ceiling still remains very high.

 

 

 

[Shaw66]

33 minutes ago, Billl said:

At what point does it stop mattering what a guy did or did not do in college? 

At some point, but not after two seasons.  

 

It takes multiple years to learn to play quarterback.   They're all more or less equal coming out of high school.  Five years of college and pros vs. four years of college and pros is a meaningful difference.   Quality of coaching and program is also a meaningful difference.   Half of Allen's experience so far was at Wyoming.   More than half of Darnold's experience was at USC.   That's a meaningful difference.